Typhoon Tip

I remember back ... summer, 2003 I think.. Or maybe it was summer of 2004. I was living in Winchester Mass. I recall one afternoon smoke was so dense, but at elevation, that the sun was reduced to either just an orb, or gone altogether.

Yeah ... I gotta 'magine... jamming my head up a pigs ass ...wow! you talk 'bout stenchy torridity... Heh. Ya know.. I was in NYC back in ... 1997 or 1998, August, first time, ... unsuccessfully attempting to woo probably the most painful forlorn crush, ever - but that's 'sides the point. I was unimpressed. Walking along side of her as she showed me the common cultural heritage points, ...round 1 or 2 pm on a random weekday afternoon, I was struck by the smells. "City of the thousand lights," did not motivate me to description, not nearly as successfully as the odors that literally ... punch your f'n nose, and do so, with 0 discernible differential just ambling along, bumping shoulders with strangers that come with their own interesting suggestions. You're literally charmed to almost endearing tears by that which flowers could only envy, and before you can even turn to your object of adoration to inform her, you could swear you've just been forcibly fed a f'n fetid fecal stuffed rat carcass - kind of kills the ambition to tell her. Then, its the bouquet of roses... Then the savory aroma of cooking meat suddenly meets a dogs ass that is violently morphed within another step into violets that are conning you into thinking you're not really tasting vomit... Whack whack whack... zero adjustment, merely ambling down of some ... street with a numeral name astride and or upon some Time To Take Shit Square... I remember I turned to her and said, "More like the city of thousand smells." F'n place is steeped in conceit and arrogantly overrated in a lot of ways... Just as much as the legends of Broadway, the cultural cooker and stories very much do carry their own substantive cultural gravitas. Or maybe in my own bias I'm just saddened eternally that she got away ... And now when I think back, I'd rather not stay.

Lol ... wtf dude

I was speaking to the DP with my lower number in that 105/75 facsimile .. As in, the sun has to work to heat that much water for that context - That's pretty interesting that you get Coyote howls there... Not to be silly, but are there Wolves... I really don't know. Off the top of my head I'm inclined to think not... Between the St L. seaway and human presence ...both may act as a block ( former ) and deterrent ( latter ) and maybe that removed them over time.

"Anyone" is a short list of souls... in that context. I leave for work every day between 6:35 and 6:50 am and the sun is completely up and shining as of this morning, still in that time frame. To each his/her own... but, I don't typically notice the change until I leave and the sun is no longer shining on the sides of houses and trees at that hour.

Jesus H Critters ... that GGEM run is an absolute inferno from D6.5 right out to the end of that operational run. Probably historic proportions ... I'll happen by the GEPS mean and it'll be tamer ... one would hope... But, as far as the op, that's an absolute text book on how to get big heat into the NE... The pattern caps/traps plateau heat out west that's diurnally charging ...Then, said pattern disrupts and displaces the air mass out across the Plains... at which time... a WAR like ridge structure emergence S of a polarward retreating jet. Such that southwest heat plume(s) released get pulled in/under those very tall heights where the thickness can expand and be unimpeded by ... well, anyway, that's ( believe it or not ) more impressive than the week leading the early July heat last year, because last year I recall specifically noting that there wasn't any southwest heat expulsion prior to that ridge genesis over eastern mid latitudes... This model run? Does - But you know... ( I just saw the Euro and it's got something similar though not as, and also is spurious ... ) I question how hot it can actually get with the sun at our latitude trying to heat soup. Dense ozone and high vapor content may mitigate the number of digits on the top... Not that it matters if it's 96/78... Anyway, I don't think it can actually be 105/75 here, do to the fact that by the time the atmosphere is arriving this far E it's heavily burdened with polyaromatic aerosols from continental exhausting ... Plus, being closer to sea-level, we have to heat the total column of the atmosphere...these factors mean that it takes more solar energy to get a parcel to that state than it does out near Chicago... even less so in western Kansas... In simple terms... there's an intuitive limit to the 'highest' ( I think ) . Speculation ... But these runs are obviously for D6+ so.... meh. I'm not buying it until we get one of those looks to survive more than a single model cycle. It's been a game of dump heat onto D10's ...then, watch the models consume it.

I can't... But, the interior of cars parked on empty lots start heating more effectively around Feb 10 ... also, stop doing so opposite Novie 10's ... I know you know this... but for the general reader - between November 10 and February 10 is our perennial solar nadir times of the years per our approx latitude. But yeah, Jan 10 is too early. And I agree... I was just noticing last night some entrails of day-light at 9: pm and thinking it's nice that the days are long. If anyone is saying otherwise, they are wishing the summer time away to get to their preferred time of year and are not being realistic.. 'Course, I don't pine for winter's darkness and gelid air at all times of the year. Embarrassingly ... ( ) it's something that I do share in common with Kevina ...and that's that when it is summer, I don't wanna think about winter... and when it is winter... I don't care to prospect summer. Folks on here go off on these marshmello roof-topped snow glumped sojours in July way too often to be comfortable - hahaha

Okay ... let's rein it in.

'Course... much of next week's particulars are likely going to evolve around whatever that TC does meandering west through the N. Gulf over the next bit. That system lives unusually long in guidance ( weird) as it lifts up through the midriff regions and tries to block continental heat from pouring east during that flat ridge amplitude happening over top. It's unclear which will succeed...whether we can get a ribbon of dragon fart to rip east and get in here before that system's gums up the flow. It's not ( obviously ..) even certain it will entangle with the westerlies up near the Lakes like that... but just sayn' as it looks now. If that feature isn't there, we may see a flat ridge big heat pulse more so than currently modeled... The 12z Euro does in fact rip off a piece of EML/850 lava and gets in here prior - ... ah hell, it's all way out there..

The EPS didn't look very remarkable... but was above normal suggestive, nonetheless - wouldn't surprise me if there's third attempt at a heat wave out there ... The first being the failure that will come of today tomorrow ... Then ? maybe Thur-sat.... Then next week. But, failed heat waves is usually also code for CG interludes ... so perhaps we bang like I never get to

Oh...y'ur coastal than... k - Yeah, it's not "un"comfortable... per se. buut just assume the temp not rise any further.

Heh... more likely, this new version of GFS is a POS, period... If they let the Euro or GGEM run out that long, I wonder if they'd ever try to do that on the climate hottest N. H. day of the year. This model is going to be an absolute monster in the cold season... hell, it'll start roaring in earlier than that.

Hope not... 91 along Rt 2 up here in N. Mass... fine 'nough

Good thing this is a 300+ hour depiction, ....otherwise, this might seem strange -

right - it's almost like we're still getting the same gradient pattern ... but the summer version. Only here, we're not talking about snow vs rain, cold versus 32.1 rain... but proximal cooling degree days.

Maybe up north ... not down here... HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS according to the Pre's at NWS ... were modestly negative yesterday, and not prior to that, and won't be today. It's already nearing 80 and will be nearing 90 this afternoon... if we believe the MOS...

This has undoubtedly been hammered before but ... is that site's instrumentation correct? Also ... I was touching on this just a bit ago in this thread, how there seems to be more awareness as to the x's and y's and z's of a "pattern" when there are more obvious modeling cinemas along the way. People seem to respond to pictographic Meteorology ...much more so than data on spread sheets. It's no knock ...obviously, visual representation is more identifiable ... Then, the court of public opinion is more in support when in/of that coherency ...than just when having to rely upon actual empirical data to justify. People don't like hard numbers - beyond having to work to generate any kind of mental impression of what those hard numbers may or may not mean, they often mean something the other than what they want - so... best just ignore them. ( We live in Trump's America ) Case in point, we are in a hot pattern... ...well, for those that need semantic consistency, 'warmer than normal'. Hence, that product's depiction. Yet, there's a palpable tenor and tone about the mise-science of this season ( in part my own contribution ) that we're plagued by a lower Maritime trough - probably left over from the more obviously impacting circumstance that leveled at us over a month ago. The thing is we are... it's just that it's alleviating in recent weeks... But it's a slow death... We're still not exactly showing any matinees from the models that are ballooning historic looking ridges anywhere any time soon... So the 'pictures' still don't really reflect the numbers. Of course... we really muddy the waters on that when we consider that the base-line is a curve with a positive slope - which just means... we're slightly more likely to be above normal for any given result - until such time as the Global climate trend is sufficiently offset.

Okay... time to start a petition thread/polling to submit to Brian ... If we get enough signatures, it is no longer allowed to re-post tweets here.

Oh.. I know - I meant, there are 'certain individuals' who've come to familiarization as wanting that ... (implicit) ... Preferences aside though... you know, my aunt was in Arizona. Buck 10 if it was 90 she said you couldn't hardly tell the difference, but your nose cracked and bled if you dare sneezed. Figuratively speaking... We all know desert heat is different from wet heat, too, but I've never experienced that. It's on my odd little bucket list of things to do... step off plane, 120/19, just to say I did -

Honestly ... I fully believe this ( interesting comparison by the way! ) has a lot to do with what folks see in the models? Last summer's early July goop was perhaps overly curved with ridging ... particularly in the GFS.. but even the Euro was a Venetian bubble... Yet, where it turned out not to be as tall or spatially correctly axial, it was definitely vastly over produced in those GFS operational monster surface results. Late June when it began modeling surface 2-meter temperatures of 115 at Beford Mass... Um.. really - It was a standard heat wave the more I scratch head and think back. At least where ever I was ... I didn't get more than 98 but once, at the Davis' around my town, and most days were 94-ish... Granted, the DPs were running 74 to 78 ...which we can debate that whatever - look, it was impressively hot. But it wasn't "as hot" as it can be, or has been... 1911 ... 1930s... 'Hot Saturday 1975' ...etc.. But, my point was going to be ... if the models this year had that big impression of the apocalypse ridge, that seems to resonate more with folks' interpretation. I just got done musing about this above.. how we are getting heat despite the look aloft.

Mentioned that last night, yup - I guess folks aren't really concerned with it, or paying much attention if we're not talking 96/69 ... but, today through/some point this weekend ...there is a shot at a low-grade heat wave. Weak sauce... you betcha. 90/58 meh. But DPs will rise during... Friday could 90/72 for HI of 99 ...

I also think/wonder if the futility of the GFS and/or it's ensemble mean ... if they're going to run the model out to 380 hours like that, they should try and adopt some form or variance or another of what the Euro does with it's smoothing techniques. Neither model ( or any model I should say ...) is likely to ever perform with much remarkable accurracy beyond D6 or 7 without some form of direct atmospheric controls ( deep future sci fi ) anyway... but, so long as they insist on using the bandwidth, try to integrate some technique that stops that model from automatically buckling giant mass fields into a frenzies curvi-linear mess ... It can't hurt -

101/74 ? where did that happen? ...I know I know..

Heh... not to quibble over tedious differences ... but, anything > 94 to me is "big heat" ...so overlapping there, particularly when DPs may approach the upper 60s concurrently at any point. That strikes me as less meaningfully different? I mean, 96/68 is going to feel like 101/60 ... so "maybe not a 100" ... should have been followed by "88 to 92" with less qualifier for this weird DP obsession around here heh

I find this subtlety intriguing... We seem to running two disparate longer-termed environmental forcing, concurrently. I've expressed this opine in the past, and occasionally ... a model run saunters along and puts out a chart that rather nicely illustrates. But, the short version goes like, -AO/Solar Min -vs- GW. Here is one time interval off the 00z GFS ...used arbitrarily ( not a declaration for determinism ) to elucidate the example: The latitude of that jet depicted above is in part A ... unusually far S, and B, unusually powerful nearing the ides of summer. Hard to know how much of A or B is the primary character. It's some of both. The AO at CPC has been predominately negative as of late... So that is consistent with a suppressed latitude above. But also... I mentioned in a post yesterday that the GFS ensemble mean was trying to at last relax the flow. .. as suggested by the teleconnectors... clearly, the operational version isn't interested in relaxing the flow. Anyway, we still have huge heat south of the 40th parallel across the U.S. Both the GGEM and Euro operational runs have 18 C 850 thermal layout everywhere S of IND/NYC ..with embedded plumes clear to almost the mid 20's at that sigma level, from D5 or 6 to the end of the 00z run(s). But this chart above is really protecting regions from S. Dakota -ORD-BOS by persistently ablating the air mass and shearing them off. This jet above .. I like the metaphor of a circular sander grinding it ... Be that as it may, these runs get the BIG heat real close ... In fact, we should be IN the 90s at least once in that time frame from central NE south. All the while that is happening, the actual ridge aspects of the wave signatures remain relatively flat. Very delicate. ... A slight modulation either way would make a 25 F difference in sensible weather. I think -AO is in conflict with a warming world? More so than less.. . yup. I think we have been seeing a preponderance of these fast flow regimes... particularly in winters.. Man! But, seeing this linger into the summer is strange. In a -AO hemisphere ... sped up flow may be more common anyway, ... suppressing cooler heights into the 60-40th band will tend to increase the total gradient --> increased balanced geostrophic wind. But with GW going on... the supposition is that it's enhancing that overall effect.