Typhoon Tip

yeah, getting some sort of evaporational cooling and hammer currents from this line of showers as it fans up throw... interesting

we just went through a weird 2 minute event here when this line of showers passed over head... White noise stripping flowering trees and sending rain drops sideways. Suspiciously inverted sounding as it was decidedly colder gusts. Almost no wind now...

That is hilarious .... across decades of Meteorological experience I've never heard the words 'dewpoint', '40s', and 'contribute' actually attempted in the same sentence when speaking in deference to convection - what a f'up state of climate we must be in

Actually... the more I look at that EPS evolution D6 to 10 there is multi-faceted warm-season entertainment chances, ranging from late tornado season potential in the plains, to a heat expulsion. Usually you don't get both those... When bigger heat/EML's get boated out of the southwest, they are associated with CIN so wide-spread strafing super cellular rake events get suppressed, and what tends instead is toward those giant 80DBZ cannonball-sized hailer, isolated carbuncles on radar that look like they must be drilling for oil but are all 10 mile gated meso with overshooting domes to 70K ... MCS running around ridge rims too... Anyway, if a bigger tor event happens from the lognitudinal wave progression from D6/7 to 10, then it's more likely we have pedestrian early season warmth spreading up ahead... We could have early DP transport despite our green-up being somewhat belated -interesting.. But, here's the thing, the players are in favorable stage-block assignments for putting on an early heat show. At D5-7, there is a lead roll-out ridge that should see the ambient boundary displaced up near the St Lawrence (~) with shallow BDs a potential ..granted, but... Those are not incursion cold/deep trough migrations as the longitudinal flow tendency is ( as noted yesterday ...) instructed by a neutralizing NAO so the flow wants to lift in latitude along the eastern seaboard. But what all this evolution does ... is it sets the stage for if/when a heat expulsion from the SW gets ejected, it would then be naked to swath up in the circulation, and that's just what the D8-9-10 of the Euro operational/EPS mean is attempting to do... So, a big heat departure into the OV/Lower Lakes to NE actually has total roots in the predecessor ridge-roll out setting the stage, and then the second ridge roll-out has captured EML/850 mb super charged air then lidded and running up in the continental conveyor ... Little bit of synoptic anatomy lesson on SW heat releases

mm hm ... Weather aficionados falter in their craft if they do not consider the bumps and perturbations running along the interface between these flat/zonal flow ridge amplitudes, and the still vestigial tendency to buckle over Ontario. ... powdered "invisible-to-the-models" backdoor front, just add picnics - No one asked but ... this week was still just about transitioning away from that bombastic cold pattern into a more traditional transition season/climate expression for mid May ... (some extended hints now for more heat) Also .. CC seems to mandate most days are +1.6 to +3 departure, which only get corrected more modestly positive by a raining day that insidiously skews the peril or the world, making the total months only seem more modestly doom-saying. Heh. Oh, the world is so preoccupied by the immediate "Great Cootie Meme of 2020," humanity has forgotten the real extinction signal: the Earth cannot support this species, either way and countless will die. ... enjoy your morning coffees grown and shipped, heated and enjoyed by means and method of profligate expenditure attributed carbon footprinting - The 00z Euro and the EPS mean for that matter, both set stage and begin executing a Sonoran heat release toward the end of the run. Noormaly ...day 10 is nothing more than sip-o-joe morning entertainment.. Buuut, that cluster nailed this presumptive pattern change this week ...timing and amplitude, and actually ..morphology of the super-synopsis from Hawaii to southern Greenland for that matter, going back to when it was day 10, too... So, it may be that it just sees things during present era so... hm - A climo correction flip into heat was hinted on the previous run, too and it's merely more discerned here. Doesn't take a poet to see 90's before the end of the month when balanced against where we've been

In terms of sensible weather variation yours up there ( typical for quasi-mountain Met) stands to be most extreme with the changes likely to succeed this week. In fact, Friday's Euro warm punch is deep in the troposphere .. that's 800 mb boundary-pausal look there so you'll be creepin the 60 isotherms pretty high up those slopes should that prevail as is synoptically modeled - if at day 5 usual caveat applies.

Ooh... just got to see D9 and 10 ... Yeah, the euro is as guilty with ridges as it is with troughs in that time range, so ...taken for how little that's worth - that does have a climo corrector look to it speak of the devil. It'll be interesting as that sort of flip has precedence ... Something tells me May doesn't end -12 to -16 some how some way. This week's seasonal progression/flip was actually nailed by the Euro at D10 and I've been vigilantly paying attention and it hasn't deviated...now the other guidance is on it...and, the GEFs NAO go positive heading toward next weekend and so pulling the exit latitude of the westerlies up the eastern U.S. isn't a bad fit. Heh...call me a dork, but I'm always fascinating by the 'day' the season seems to take it's biggest single leap - you can do this in November too sometimes... neat.

Mmm ... those of us of the warm season enthusiast ilk have three more days of it - you did say 'one of the last days' ...but one of the last four days is less spun and more precise. Anyway, there is still a remarkably well agreed up transition this week where we effectively cut right to summer. Thursday's the silver bullet day... 12z Euro put eclat on it too... really dramatic transition across 30 hour ... ~ Wed 18z to Friday 21Z ... sun depending. Not sure what the cloud products look like - haven't looked that close, but 12z Friday downs +14C at 850 mb, in a jolt warm fropa ... I saw that back in 2010.. We were having a some trouble in early May that year ( though nothing like this ) and a "nose" structure warm boundary intrusion came around the top side of a burgeoning ridge ...that much being quite similar to what this Euro run is also doing.. and it punch in with a 24 hour temp change of 64 to 84 -90 across a day-high to day-high interval. Not saying that 'exactly' is taking place Thur into Friday, but that secondary warm intrusion early Friday really looks quite similar and that could see mid day temp absolutely maximizing the 850 and maybe even taller, too. But before that... that change 18z Wed to Thursday 21Z is nothing to shake a stick at, either. There's a bit of an amorphously defined warm advance that takes place Thursday over the arc of the southeast retreating high. In fact, that day could be greater diurnal changes across single 12-hour period in quite some time. That synopsis should decouple in the last of it, cellar temps in the 30s/near freezing dawn; 850mb recover to ~ +6C by late afternoon on a freshening well mixed west wind... Could be 70-75

Of course there’s another ‘sensible’ angle on that. -19 daylight hours may have nights -1 ... affectedly robbing the observer of their commiserate achievement. Lol

Yup.... every year there are days in the climate that end up -19 ...

I'm not sure I buy the Florida to SE U.S. coastal hybrid low idea ... I seem to recall the GFS did this last spring too, and they were false much of the time. Autumn as well..

Palpably different sensible weather flashes in mid week... At seasonality, perhaps even add a couple/few tickets. A few days ago I commented that it is not unprecedented to see a 'climate correction' occur within a temporal stones throw of a departure, whether it achieves that by amplitude in similar time span ... or in the aggregate - this appears it may be slated for the latter. Hang in there ... it's almost over. 120 hour...well actually 108 now, and the 850 mb thermal layout is really washing away. Most guidance agree that a warm front/diffused warm frontal passage takes place Wednesday night and Thursday may be 20 F warmer than Wed by 5 or 6 pm. Credit the Euro... ( so far, we'll see ) but it picked this up at the edge of D10, five days ago, ..and it's held serve. now the GFS is even showing the seasonal flip - late as it is in every case and reality...jesus. It's amazing getting this version of the GFS to even admit to ridging and the 18z really signals ...makes me wonder if this may actually get more impressive ensuing model cycles. This was a hemispheric fold synopsis off the Pacific warm eddy ... whenever we get a -EPO to super impose over the tendency, that's a constructive wave interference and it went absolutely bonkers.

sarcasm aside I actually like this description - seriously

This 0Z nam solution has thickness is 515 dam over Logan at 48 hours… I have never seen that that deep in the month of May ever. That’s got to be some kind of a historic record for that particular metric –

Looks like a dramatic month of fortune reversals. both winter the summer enthusiast get bonuses before month’s end. snow chances this week shouldn’t be shocking relative to this pattern look. Nor should the plausible climate correction pattern flip after mid month.

So ... let's cancel the orchard crops now

Yeah, that's taking this year perhaps to a different level. But, right on cue, my sugar maple ( whom I lovingly refer to as 'general Sherman,' ...a 300 year-old, 5' diameter trunked, fire-barked beast adjacent my property) buds all cracked just overnight - it's amazing... Swollen buds for a week, wasted no time --> flowers this morning - 82 F yesterday book-ended by a couple of nights in the low 50s is probably causal. Anyway, not sure how orchard trees are behaving ...s'pose I could scout the apples on the other side of town but ...heh, not really that interested either. Re the status of things - It's actually still lag mild... we're 68 F here this hour under clean sun and zephyrs are not exactly signaling a hurried cold advection. Thing is, the May sun is being under-evaluated ( imho ) by those ragging on warm weather spin doctors ...ha.. Just the same, the 500 mb anomaly is something on the order of a 70-year phenomenon and should not be taken lightly - funny squabble results. I think there is a hard freeze/headline potential at nights and if the wind dies off by day even if for a few moments... it'll be fake mild in nooks that are out of the breeze... I have been noticing the Euro at PSU's granular quick and dirty 24 hour intervals, and one can clearly see the sun's diurnal forcing on the air mass when using that step back coarser perspective - interesting. The 00z runs, which are at the apex of the heating cycle, have been routinely 5 to 7C warmer at 850 mb at/amid the end of the week's big cold intrustion behind that vortex migration through SE Ontario... Contrasting, the 12z runs, which are at the cold nadir of said cycle, slip back by a goodly degrees ... It's like been varying -6C across most of NE at 00z runs, to -12C on the 12z cycles. That variance is purely insolation. That's in the model - it's not being noticed ...but, it does show that the sun isn't going to be denied, no matter how threatening the cold appeal is. If it is sunny, it will offset - matter of how much.

we have only swollen buds in the overriding canopy species here in Ayer, but we are in a radiative/climo cooled valley and it's been uniquely cool this last month - ha. May 3rd is the latest since I've lived here that we hadn't seen sugar maples ( at least ..) in sweet fragrant bloom. What's likely to happen here is yesterday, last nights balm, today's relative heat, tonight's balm and tomorrows ... 68 -ish will be enough to trigger a green flash but ... ooph, you almost want/need these progs to really bust then because this is a nightmare perfect failure set up for apple/pear orchard industries. Lagged spring signal, sudden spring signal... foliage triggers with abandon, followed by acute cold attack? interesting -

Solid and classic spring MOS bust in the midst of 30 year climate brain having one end be low and the near end being high - maybe... I could see that happening with the ECMWF/mid month flashing the other way rather abruptly... I realize others were onto this earlier too but it also occurred to me on that bike ride ...it is not that uncommon to see a climate corrective departure occur within a month of extremity like that. It'll be -5 for 10 straight days, then + 10 for 5 ... end up normal after 15 ... type of numerical layouts do have a precedence for extended duration balancing... -20 for 4 days ... then +8 20 ... with + 1/3 for another month shenanigans. I could see us flipping with that -PNA that's shown up all at once in the extended over here in the GEFs... Before that, I wouldn't be surprised if we clocked a snow event out of this thing. I've seen snow in 6 different May's since 2000 under less impressive conditions. Past doesn't mean future and all that jazz but still - that's a sick look. Perhaps a month of extremes underway

77 to 79 at all home stations within a mile or two of mi casa here in Ayer and feels 80 out there... MOS bust underway ... ?

Interesting immediate observation there for me is that the 850 mb is cold ... but not representing - Imagining if that were Feb 2, and that 500 mb would have and under riding 850mb -15 to even -20 C isotherm down Worcester latitude, so it's like negotiating with the sun - haha... I dunno.. .I'm pretty high confident for an obnoxious cold shot into May there, ...probably a hard freeze/damage to orchard trees even... but I don't know if needs to be all that. Hell, history happens though, too. We'll see. Plenty of time.

As an after thought for Ray - ... next year's seasonal outlook effort should go like, Blah blah blah blah pop-cycle headache prose .... with perhaps a 20% increased chance for a spring cold and snow lingering into May.

Precisely ...glad you picked up on the implicit idea of 'counter-intuitive' ... Anyway, it's long been theorized that this isn't an even march. Some places do counter the mean overall, ...we just may be one of those over eastern N/A There's also that bag of tricks surrounding the Atlantic ( and probably might be somewhat applicable to the Pacific too ) thermo-haline cycling and surface densification breakdown causing the suppression of the G-string ... ( that's one warming we we actually want! ) Jokes aside, I'm sure you are familiar, but with the Lab current and NW Europe getting cold when the rest of the world heats for a century ... I don't think this is that...no, but it's just along that same idea that there are offset regions/phenomenon -

I really wish folks would start ubiquitously gaining exposure to the cornucopia of studies formally being papered/peer-reviewed, that are frankly free now.. Baffling, but seasonal lag due to Pacific warm surplus folding over continental mean circulation eddies was floated by theoretical works in the 1990s even... well... here we are. Would anyone with a modicum of cogency argue THAT up there isn't seasonal f'um lag? It makes sense... because as May progresses into June...the continents concomitantly heat up, and that then stops the trough aspect of the Pac-ridge/continental trough coupling model.. It seems we deal with this more and more seasons...2013 - 217 were four weird years that may or may not offset this ...but by and large, since 2000, late season +PNAPs and cold loading have been increased in frequencing compared to the previous 200 -some odd years of climo, and...doing it on top of the CC hockey stick curve, just like was theoretically proposed. So, maybe no one is actually arguing this - hahaha...but still, it's to the point ( for me ) where I'm not surprised... Oh, sure - that scale and degree of 520 dm SPVs passing through Upstate NY is suprising...but the idea of delaying seasonal commitment should not be.

Yeah, it is interesting to see the GFS attempting similarly ... I'd still suggest modulating that for obvious reasons - one is not typically going to score a win prognosticating off a -5 or more SD anomaly being accurately assessed by any guidance beyond D5 or 6... That said the GEFs - based teleconnectors do carry a cold signal into May - so despite the balm that's likely Sat-Monday.. oy. I don't think that is going to be the same as 2005 May, tho... This cold pattern appears to be fuller loaded latitude integrated/hemispheric r-wave event compared to butt-bang of lore. It's NW territory to Georgia coastal R-wave resonance with unusually sloped flow ...but, that is requiring double stream phasing/N-stream... 2005 May was a different scenario entirely - speaking to the straw man in the room here. That was a cut-off low over the Del Marva that kept getting new back side jet inserts that would re-deepen it and re-engineer new coastal waves that in total pulled the entire structure back west across three separate oscillations some 3 to 4 days apart. Such that some three weeks (basically gobbled up the entire month of May that year) was plagued with nearly identical weather: 48/41 NE wind and rain sheets. I think the ORH hills picked up some sleet and mangled noodle or two in there, but by and large, it was crime against humanity by God- him/herself... This situation isn't that... it's just a raging demo of seasonal lag ... one that probably would only last 3 to 5 days anyway ... the EPS mean is probably safer.