Typhoon Tip

No ...that Boston number has it's value - but one has to be a meteorologist to understand why ..so - It was 62 setting out on that 25 mi ride; hit the breeze boundary and finished in 48 F and it was brutal !! We're 30 miles inland as the crow flies. I knew there was risk of that dense cold marine boundary layer rollin in but the gamble didn't pay off - and it wasn't a very good ride because of it. To cold for the gear I was in -

Yeah that event was horribly handled by the GFS of the time. There's been a upgrade since ... Recall, it was trying to flag 111 F, 2-meter temperature(s) at Bedford Mass ...run after run, but with DPs of just 60 F... So, 111/60 ... Pheonix in Boston? No problem - That version of the GFS of that time was a particularly egregious embarrassment by NOAA... It almost seemed more than figuratively as though they just f'ed up and left out the lower level thermodynamic equations when they modular snapped that puppy together - and of course ... buried the fact that they did by ignoring the issue and not drawing attention to the mistake or some diversion of strategy..haha. But in the lower 100 to 200 mbs of the troposphere - quite plausibly related to it's bad theta-e management/physics. It also had that nor'easter earlier that March ...remember that? 2" to 3" of 6-hourly QPF with a DP spread of 8 F ( 39/31). That lent many to think it was missing a blue bomb potential if correcting toward wet-bulb. So, there was bated hope ... oops. What happens? OH, we wet bulbed ... to 35/34 with 2" to 3" of rain -- wah wah wahhhh... Oh if one were nerdy enough to look cat paws. That's part of the 'emergent butt-bang' mystique, too. I mean, the model is wrong, and we still rained - Anyway, that GFS was a joke... Not sure if this present version is any better with those thermodynamics in the boundary layer. Both versions have a 'stretching' /longitude bias in the mid levels that's pretty demonstrable at all times, ... heredity it has gained from the last version, which also did that progressivity thing even worse. So it may be incrementally improved, who knows... But in any/all these cases, that heat dome from that big ridge event that early July was still verifying less. Even at 95/76 (76 might be pricey... was it less?), that was under cooked by some ... so as far as as the synergy abstraction, it was both a failed historic ridge because of the weird nodal-hemispheric cool sink, while still managing to be an inferno - which perhaps belies the former... interesting.

I get the humor ... but you know, there is a kind of 'emergence tendency' ? It's a bit abstract as a concept, but the 'gestalt' : the synergistic product that cannot really be defined by individual component analysis, but when they operate together, you get winning or losing streaks. In either streak, the contribution seems to be unchanging, yet for some reason, the results flop positive or negative ... notwithstanding observation biases and all that rigor - We've been in losing streak for cold and snow enthusiasts, period. We've had leading indicators that just flat out failed. And, some of the indicators themselves also failed - which makes it 'uniquely failing' - it's as though insidious like some agency is attempting to deliberately lead down primrose paths only to prove deceptive - haha. Seriously though, we've had times in our lives when the opposite for cold and snow enthusiasm ...where we couldn't lose. Every perturbation physically identifiable upstream in the hemisphere's greater circulation eddy just found a way to delay office and school openings. We don't question the success times with quite the same zeal, I can imagine. Interesting. But, this is also interesting to me because I feel we've been getting stolen summers too? This has gone on since 2015's big February of lore and fact. We had a big historic heat dome two summers ago that frankly didn't verify anywhere close to what was modeled - 95/76 is nothing to shake a stick at but... 103/67 it was not. Maybe the DP/theta-e increases associated with CC and storing > WV absorbed some of the heat... who knows...But, every other heat chance has been less than that, and/or failing to materialize to the point of modeled... And there is some truth to the behavior - regardless of cause - where dimmed summers relay into early cool snaps that can't seem to parlay into winter proper. I was discussing this 'seasonal lag' effect with Mets unaffiliated with this social media and there is an agreed sentiment... the expanding HC may be why winters are being odd... Where in the summer, there is lingering tendencies to hold more ridging in the NE Pac and that is causing a counter mass balanced tendency over eastern N/A ( spread out in the longer term mean ) to lower heights just enough to keep us out of contention as a 'hot-spot' in the on-going month-to-month 'state of the climate' releases by NASA and forth. We are above normal more than not, just 'not as' much so as our synergistic result of these seasonal lag effects - supposition but it's rooted theoretically.

actually agree with this in principle... I've been trying to intimate the same in the terminating April thread - that we sort of turned the seasonal page this last week. Ending with this current system pulling away, the 850 mb thermal layout is really relaxed and > 0C S of the 45 N ... Granted the Euro attempts to flood that back in D7; I'm willing to put money down that is typically lowering heights to prodigiously in it's D7-10 - that model's going to be tough to use for sniffing out heat waves at longer leads. GFS too ...actually. Both models abolish domes for different reasons. The euro tends to take any day 5 or 6 cumulus cloud it sees over eastern Montana ...and uses it to carve out a magnificent eastern trough. While the GFS has a perpetual rasp always grinding ridge arcs flat... Either bias mutes warm getting to the 40th parallel. The Euro may actually over amplify ridges, too - - but we have admittedly not really given it that opportunity with this weird cold at least excuse imaginable pattern we've been in this recent 30 days. It's been the perfect storm of uninspired annoying weather. Overly cold and cyclonically tasty in the D8 never had a chance of verifying cold enough for a late snow ...while keeping foliage dormant because it's actually too cool to trigger green-up. Oh, it's smattering now....sure, but last year and this year, these cold April's back to back, are noticeably late here along Rt 2 compared to the previous 3 springs... 2015 was the last belated spring ... Probably average butt-bangin' for this cursed geographic region of the planet and it's atmosphere - I'll tell ya I'm living in the wrong environment after March 15 ... I'm checked out by that date, and about 2/3rds of all springs, that is when the cold checks in because of this maddening seasonal lag we've been getting more and more of because of apparent CC

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

No .. I don't think that's cynical at all. I think that's a fair observation. Truth is, there is a reason these early cold snaps are becoming more common year to year. And, guess what? It's more than merely plausible. It has to do with the Pacific thermal ridge/bulge, combined with a permanent geographical circumstance that relates to the orientation of the N/American continent with respect to the west-to-east prevailing winds. Both cause ..or favor, NW flow in western Canada without the help of one another, as a rest/base-line tendency. The rest state of the Perennial North American Pattern features a mountain bulge, a flat ridge, the axis of which is collocated roughly with the Rockies cordillera ( Canada to Mexico).. Immediately down wind of this mean ridge there is a flattening out of the flow that is arguable a coupled trough. That is the geographically induced circulation mode. In present era of Pacific thermal surplus - particularly as we near the autumn and entry times to the cold season - that bulge combines with the ever present geographically induced ridge; superimposition over one another sort of "synergistically" enhances NW flows over western North America. That constructive wave interference than lends to tapping cold earlier and delivering it south toward N/A middle latitudes. As far as Gaia, that was more for science-fiction? A thought experiment. Muse out loud if you will. Though it's an intriguing premise for a book, don't you think? You know what it really hearkens to? I hearkens to the crashing airliner narrative, about how the moment of the accident is actually the end result of a series of events set into motion ... sometimes years in advance as forensics eventually piece together. It's just that with so many moving parts in the machinery of this planets biosphere and all the dependencies and delicate bandwidths of adaptation that need to remain stable, it gets to be so complex that its easier to just refer to it as Gaia. But, the geographic layout of our planetary interface with the prevailing N.H.wind ... causing slightly cooler variance over N/A as far as the GW we experience here, was like the plain wreck... That part of it formulated 10,000,000 years ago. Or if you really want to get outre with it, maybe Gaia set all this up back then.

Ten hours. Super massive stars that begin fusing Hydrogen into Helium during their early lives, will burn so hot and furiously through their Hydrogen mass that within just a few million years they will begin fusing the Helium they have created, into heavier elements. This goes onward, each cycle faster than the predecessor, because the energy produced by fusion of these increasingly heavier elements adds more and more energy to the nucleosynthesis process, thus speeding it up. Once the star begins fusing Silicon into Iron ...that's the end of the line. BOOM. That fusion into Iron at the core is the end of the line because it takes more energy than is provisionally in place left over from the previous nucleosynthesis processes to fuse Iron into heavier elements such Gold ..etc. The star no longer is producing additional energy thus begins to lose thermal pressure, and can no longer withstand its own incredible gravity. The core collapses... When that collapsing mass hits the neutron density being created by compressing protons and electrons together ( the creating of a neutron star associated with ~ 8 solar mass stars or > ), it rebounds in a horrific explosion called a Super Nova. Here is the fascinating part. Because the star is so large, that process of core implosion to 'Nova, takes time - on the order of ten hours. In that time, the outside observer sees the star as burning normally. It's really quite literally as though the outside spherical envelope of the star its self, is a dead man walking. A corpse unaware... that it's heart beat has ceased, and has no idea about the the shock wave about to annihilate from below. When I read articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/europe/insect-apocalypse-report-scn/index.html I am driven to the above primer; where humanity, and perhaps a lot of other species to go along with, may be living and breathing, and carrying on in their existence as though quite metaphoric with that above theme, having no idea ( or in our case, vaguely..). There are so many moving parts to the climate change catastrophe, and it is absolutely a catastrophe. So few are aware, or could even begin to conceptualize the immense inter dependencies of the entire biological system. We read about polar bear habitats. Sea level rises.. Droughts and heat waves. And we think we got it? As commoners, we don't even know the 1% of it. As scholars and scientists, we don't know the half. But as we burn and carry on in our ways and means, in a lot of ways it is as though we are symbolically existing through our final, proverbial ten hours.

Oh ...geez, I missed the statement in the beginning - yeah, I guess what's relevant to them.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ice-refuge.html

I think it's interesting that these excerpts have an over-arching theme of monetary this and that, and how it will effect commerce ... And guess what? Money means nothing in nature. Nor, to climate change's ability to dwindle species survivability - yes, that includes the conceit of humanity, a fragility that will be exposed. Is this narrative - money vibe some manipulation of the audience? I mean, considering... it is an audience that cannot connect with anything unless they are impacted in their wallets, it's an understandable device. It's the only way to get them to pay attention and take this shit seriously.

I'm less than entirely familiar with the specifics of Australian climatology ... other than exposure to outback heat and dry cinema portrayed through science channel this, or old movie that.. I think it interesting that they are only in their spring .. which concomitantly means, the higher hotter sun and air potential looms, and it seems at a very simple level of consideration that this cannot project very favorably that this is happening this early.

I expanded on that... I do that often... write something and then hammer it with afterthoughts -sorry

Not to be snarky but I don't agree that population is the problem in among its self. This may seem totally obvious because, well .. .it is, but, it's what the population does that is the problem - not the population. There is an important distinction. I'm sure those involved in any such debate are aware.. And perhaps there is a 'built in' assumption, one that is cynical where they're musing back and forth within the predilection that humanity is incapable of a non-profligate exploitation way of existence. I could buy that ... I almost like that - almost. Greed first! Evidence certainly seems to suggest so. To that, I have friends directly keyed into the circuit of Boston area university scientists, and they all agree ... the problem is more clearly a sociological one, more so than a geo-physical one. Change attitudes... and the latter takes care of its self. It's still just the population doing it. If there were 8 billion people on this planet all living green - no problem. That can change? But, people need to get burned to believe in the fire. That's the biggest problem with this ... the specter of climate change moves at a pace below the threshold of human senses. People can't feel, see, taste or touch or hear it; though we are seeing that beginning to change with striking video. Still, it's not in people's back yards enough. 'Soon as people feel the nausea, they'll stop sipping the cool-aide that it's okay to profligate - hell, begin to realize that the way we've done this thing since the Industrial Revolution is even profligate in the first place. Generations have now lived and died, tucked inside the IR years since that great Human evolutionary turn begin to usurp Human societies... and their culture knows no other way.

I have a hypothesis growing ... one existentially based/anecdotal, but hey, ideas gotta start somewhere. Basically, we've already lost winters to global warming along the 45th parallel/ E of ORD. Zomb! Firstly, that doesn't mean it can't snow - don't panic just yet. Though such a future is unavoidable some years to decades in the future, for now it just means that the averages are already now breaching a base-line that is too warm to support cryo months. Most run-ins with cold and concomitant snows are going to be more pattern specific...thus, ephemeral in nature. We have to remember, there are no neat and tidy boundaries in the atmosphere. Climate zones are moving N; we know this is true as it is being empirically shown, and, these emergence' fit climate models - both primitive and more recently sophisticated. Be that as it may that does not mean it won't snow and get brutally cold, if perhaps spanning ever shorter duration(s) south of the perceived climate transition "boundaries" - virtual in nature...etc, etc. That all said, my hypothesis is that a climate transition virtual boundary has already shifted north of the Mid Atlantic and New England regions from central latitudes and S. Part of that is formulated by the personal observation that more and more ... we seem to not get cryo-supportive events/air masses S of the 45th parallel across the conus and locally, *unless* there is an antecedent -EPO. It seems to be we are whittling away other teleconnectors that were always capable of doing it. The negative North Atlantic Oscillations seem less effectual in delivering cold - though they are rarefied in recent decade as a separate matter. The PNA can be positive, yet we're throwing up raining coastal storm types along the eastern seaboard, and also...as papers are publishing recently, the mean storm tracks are observed(ing) migrating N; these +PNA's are delivering more "Lakes Cutter" type tracks. Also a warmer trajectory for the TV-eastern OV/NE regions. The East Pacific Oscillation domain space is very high in latitude, up over the Alaskan sector and adjacent lower Beaufort sea and N Pac/ NW Territories of Canada, and in fact, ...overlaps the Arctic Oscillation domain space. When that field is negative ( i.e., blocking heights and or directive cold loading into N/A), it is sort of like "the last of the cold delivery teleconnectors" to go. The larger scale geological/geographical circumstance in the way N/A is situated and immediately relays off the Pacific, "encourages" the EPO to bulge, and tap cold - if we look at the last 240 months of NASA averages, we see a relative cool offset over N/A for this reason. With the PNA and NAO seemingly reducing efficacy, the EPO has become much more the primary effective cold loading Canada and point south over the continent. The PNA and NAO, both seemed to to be less proficient in doing so within their own index correlations. These ladder indices share much more domain space with mid latitudes - particularly true in the PNA. The NAO is similar to the EPO, but ...the western limb of NAO's domain space is over a region of Canada that has been experiencing elevating temperatures even in winter months - so in the means..there's plausibility for research there, that perhaps the -NAOs are not as effective as they used to be at delivering cold to 40 N ( ORD-BOS). I have noticed that we are either partial/below normal temperature distribution/anomalies therein, with -EPOs, or... we seem to go right back to a new rest state that features vastly above normal temperatures. It's like one or the other, with less "normal" days in between. Normal days in climate ...they are almost as rare as any given departure, because they are just numbers that precipitate out of arithmetic means... But, the scatter plots are showing greater departures/extremes - and that is more like the new normal. If we took the EPO's out entirely? I think we have 60 to 70 F winters.

Fwiw - https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2913/2019-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-tied-for-second-lowest-on-record/