Typhoon Tip

The psycho-babblist in me wants to have a field day with that statement right there...

I really wish NHC would give a least some physical explanation that backs up statements like this, " ... The modest northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further development... " Namely, why? Who said and for what reason? I realize we live in a dumbing-down world that is increasingly less required to offer critical analysis and objective reasoning to validate points and conjecture and all... But, gee, this statement really does not presently appear to support what is being observed. That kind of low level cloud whirl, having deep convection displaced a ways off the center while there is virtually nothing on the windward/abutting shear side .. I dunno what to say. It seems the ole, 'when it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, and waddles like a duck, chances are ...it's a duck' theory of all things great and small seems to be a valid method of approach for this thing ... And so, without their explaining why shear should not affect the system, that bold statement above appears stupid

Hi res vis loop is neat looking with that backdoor moving toward the coast.. WPC's surface analysis has the boundary but their resolution is actually crisscrossing the axis of the vis imagery signature... ------ This tropical cyclone in the Gulf appears ... for the time being ... to be over-rated. Hurricane ... really? That's going to look bad if this doesn't. And frankly... it doesn't look like it could. It appears like some center is about to come on shore N of guidance over the next couple of hours ... near the delta of the Mississippi, as a mere open innocuous low cloud whirl. There is deep convection displaced far S but it is in no way shape or form part of this whirl that is evidenced on hi res sat. ..Also, CB turrets closer to this low whirl are tipped and ripped S exposing there may be some shear there. Perhaps there is a different center that NHC is focussing ? I dunno, but just using the lay-person internet sourcing this thing appears bust worthy... It matters... Because a more robustly designed feature in the initialization grids ... will effect the mid range entirely differently, vs one that's paltry and physically feeble ..ie, no momentum to conserve and all that. One such way in which it effects the mid range is how/if big heat translates up into the NE U.S... Heat delivery could fail anyway... but all else being equal, the prior runs were using the remnants to more than less 'block' the heat conveyor... This was more evident in the prior Euro runs, and in fact ...the 00z run looks absurdly too interested in holding this system tropical identity together - or something to account for why it explodes into near TS status passing S of CC after having parabolically traversed some 2,500 naut mi of land before emerging off the Del Marva later next week. Doubt it... But, in doing so, it does block the heat for several days... It's like a historic heat wave punch bowl with a huge cold turd stuck in it. It could go down that way... I suppose ... but seems less likely. I almost think the GGEM run makes more sense ... particularly if that TC does in fact fail to attain the physical presence in the atmosphere. It's solution is to just rain it out more than less in the Miss. Valley sort of 'fly in amber' style, and less effectively blocking - perhaps owing to a weaker TC coming on board. Interesting...

mm shuttin' off the upwellin' helps that

Nother note... that guy in the gulf startin to do the twist a bit more obviously on sat channels... Looks like it might be trying to establish an axis a bit SW of the "fix"

I have the AC debate/problem at the office.. Man, embarrassing ...but my hands get cold. Literally ...sitting there at the computer scanning software and it's distracting. Sometimes you get those gooseys along your ribs. I feel like I don't need the AC that chilly but no one else seems to be complainin'. Although, both Carolyn and Ashley have a space heater under their desks and once in a while I have to go in their office and I can hear the white noise of them runnin. I'm like... warm air and white noise - how is that helping get work done. Heh. I refuse to admit to a space heater as a middle aged male holding out hope - But I know what you mean.

Yeah ...maybe Brian. It's been a ways back now. Was there a something big that year - i'll google EDIT: yup ... good call dude.. It was definitely this, https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/020628/020628.html That was crazy... I remember looking up at this surreal cast, the underside looked like a field of 'popped mammatta' ... or a middle aged mom's busted ravioli

I remember back ... summer, 2003 I think.. Or maybe it was summer of 2004. I was living in Winchester Mass. I recall one afternoon smoke was so dense, but at elevation, that the sun was reduced to either just an orb, or gone altogether.

Yeah ... I gotta 'magine... jamming my head up a pigs ass ...wow! you talk 'bout stenchy torridity... Heh. Ya know.. I was in NYC back in ... 1997 or 1998, August, first time, ... unsuccessfully attempting to woo probably the most painful forlorn crush, ever - but that's 'sides the point. I was unimpressed. Walking along side of her as she showed me the common cultural heritage points, ...round 1 or 2 pm on a random weekday afternoon, I was struck by the smells. "City of the thousand lights," did not motivate me to description, not nearly as successfully as the odors that literally ... punch your f'n nose, and do so, with 0 discernible differential just ambling along, bumping shoulders with strangers that come with their own interesting suggestions. You're literally charmed to almost endearing tears by that which flowers could only envy, and before you can even turn to your object of adoration to inform her, you could swear you've just been forcibly fed a f'n fetid fecal stuffed rat carcass - kind of kills the ambition to tell her. Then, its the bouquet of roses... Then the savory aroma of cooking meat suddenly meets a dogs ass that is violently morphed within another step into violets that are conning you into thinking you're not really tasting vomit... Whack whack whack... zero adjustment, merely ambling down of some ... street with a numeral name astride and or upon some Time To Take Shit Square... I remember I turned to her and said, "More like the city of thousand smells." F'n place is steeped in conceit and arrogantly overrated in a lot of ways... Just as much as the legends of Broadway, the cultural cooker and stories very much do carry their own substantive cultural gravitas. Or maybe in my own bias I'm just saddened eternally that she got away ... And now when I think back, I'd rather not stay.

Lol ... wtf dude

I was speaking to the DP with my lower number in that 105/75 facsimile .. As in, the sun has to work to heat that much water for that context - That's pretty interesting that you get Coyote howls there... Not to be silly, but are there Wolves... I really don't know. Off the top of my head I'm inclined to think not... Between the St L. seaway and human presence ...both may act as a block ( former ) and deterrent ( latter ) and maybe that removed them over time.

"Anyone" is a short list of souls... in that context. I leave for work every day between 6:35 and 6:50 am and the sun is completely up and shining as of this morning, still in that time frame. To each his/her own... but, I don't typically notice the change until I leave and the sun is no longer shining on the sides of houses and trees at that hour.

Jesus H Critters ... that GGEM run is an absolute inferno from D6.5 right out to the end of that operational run. Probably historic proportions ... I'll happen by the GEPS mean and it'll be tamer ... one would hope... But, as far as the op, that's an absolute text book on how to get big heat into the NE... The pattern caps/traps plateau heat out west that's diurnally charging ...Then, said pattern disrupts and displaces the air mass out across the Plains... at which time... a WAR like ridge structure emergence S of a polarward retreating jet. Such that southwest heat plume(s) released get pulled in/under those very tall heights where the thickness can expand and be unimpeded by ... well, anyway, that's ( believe it or not ) more impressive than the week leading the early July heat last year, because last year I recall specifically noting that there wasn't any southwest heat expulsion prior to that ridge genesis over eastern mid latitudes... This model run? Does - But you know... ( I just saw the Euro and it's got something similar though not as, and also is spurious ... ) I question how hot it can actually get with the sun at our latitude trying to heat soup. Dense ozone and high vapor content may mitigate the number of digits on the top... Not that it matters if it's 96/78... Anyway, I don't think it can actually be 105/75 here, do to the fact that by the time the atmosphere is arriving this far E it's heavily burdened with polyaromatic aerosols from continental exhausting ... Plus, being closer to sea-level, we have to heat the total column of the atmosphere...these factors mean that it takes more solar energy to get a parcel to that state than it does out near Chicago... even less so in western Kansas... In simple terms... there's an intuitive limit to the 'highest' ( I think ) . Speculation ... But these runs are obviously for D6+ so.... meh. I'm not buying it until we get one of those looks to survive more than a single model cycle. It's been a game of dump heat onto D10's ...then, watch the models consume it.

I can't... But, the interior of cars parked on empty lots start heating more effectively around Feb 10 ... also, stop doing so opposite Novie 10's ... I know you know this... but for the general reader - between November 10 and February 10 is our perennial solar nadir times of the years per our approx latitude. But yeah, Jan 10 is too early. And I agree... I was just noticing last night some entrails of day-light at 9: pm and thinking it's nice that the days are long. If anyone is saying otherwise, they are wishing the summer time away to get to their preferred time of year and are not being realistic.. 'Course, I don't pine for winter's darkness and gelid air at all times of the year. Embarrassingly ... ( ) it's something that I do share in common with Kevina ...and that's that when it is summer, I don't wanna think about winter... and when it is winter... I don't care to prospect summer. Folks on here go off on these marshmello roof-topped snow glumped sojours in July way too often to be comfortable - hahaha

Okay ... let's rein it in.

'Course... much of next week's particulars are likely going to evolve around whatever that TC does meandering west through the N. Gulf over the next bit. That system lives unusually long in guidance ( weird) as it lifts up through the midriff regions and tries to block continental heat from pouring east during that flat ridge amplitude happening over top. It's unclear which will succeed...whether we can get a ribbon of dragon fart to rip east and get in here before that system's gums up the flow. It's not ( obviously ..) even certain it will entangle with the westerlies up near the Lakes like that... but just sayn' as it looks now. If that feature isn't there, we may see a flat ridge big heat pulse more so than currently modeled... The 12z Euro does in fact rip off a piece of EML/850 lava and gets in here prior - ... ah hell, it's all way out there..

The EPS didn't look very remarkable... but was above normal suggestive, nonetheless - wouldn't surprise me if there's third attempt at a heat wave out there ... The first being the failure that will come of today tomorrow ... Then ? maybe Thur-sat.... Then next week. But, failed heat waves is usually also code for CG interludes ... so perhaps we bang like I never get to

Oh...y'ur coastal than... k - Yeah, it's not "un"comfortable... per se. buut just assume the temp not rise any further.

Heh... more likely, this new version of GFS is a POS, period... If they let the Euro or GGEM run out that long, I wonder if they'd ever try to do that on the climate hottest N. H. day of the year. This model is going to be an absolute monster in the cold season... hell, it'll start roaring in earlier than that.

Hope not... 91 along Rt 2 up here in N. Mass... fine 'nough

Good thing this is a 300+ hour depiction, ....otherwise, this might seem strange -

right - it's almost like we're still getting the same gradient pattern ... but the summer version. Only here, we're not talking about snow vs rain, cold versus 32.1 rain... but proximal cooling degree days.

Maybe up north ... not down here... HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS according to the Pre's at NWS ... were modestly negative yesterday, and not prior to that, and won't be today. It's already nearing 80 and will be nearing 90 this afternoon... if we believe the MOS...

This has undoubtedly been hammered before but ... is that site's instrumentation correct? Also ... I was touching on this just a bit ago in this thread, how there seems to be more awareness as to the x's and y's and z's of a "pattern" when there are more obvious modeling cinemas along the way. People seem to respond to pictographic Meteorology ...much more so than data on spread sheets. It's no knock ...obviously, visual representation is more identifiable ... Then, the court of public opinion is more in support when in/of that coherency ...than just when having to rely upon actual empirical data to justify. People don't like hard numbers - beyond having to work to generate any kind of mental impression of what those hard numbers may or may not mean, they often mean something the other than what they want - so... best just ignore them. ( We live in Trump's America ) Case in point, we are in a hot pattern... ...well, for those that need semantic consistency, 'warmer than normal'. Hence, that product's depiction. Yet, there's a palpable tenor and tone about the mise-science of this season ( in part my own contribution ) that we're plagued by a lower Maritime trough - probably left over from the more obviously impacting circumstance that leveled at us over a month ago. The thing is we are... it's just that it's alleviating in recent weeks... But it's a slow death... We're still not exactly showing any matinees from the models that are ballooning historic looking ridges anywhere any time soon... So the 'pictures' still don't really reflect the numbers. Of course... we really muddy the waters on that when we consider that the base-line is a curve with a positive slope - which just means... we're slightly more likely to be above normal for any given result - until such time as the Global climate trend is sufficiently offset.

Okay... time to start a petition thread/polling to submit to Brian ... If we get enough signatures, it is no longer allowed to re-post tweets here.