Typhoon Tip

Interesting immediate observation there for me is that the 850 mb is cold ... but not representing - Imagining if that were Feb 2, and that 500 mb would have and under riding 850mb -15 to even -20 C isotherm down Worcester latitude, so it's like negotiating with the sun - haha... I dunno.. .I'm pretty high confident for an obnoxious cold shot into May there, ...probably a hard freeze/damage to orchard trees even... but I don't know if needs to be all that. Hell, history happens though, too. We'll see. Plenty of time.

As an after thought for Ray - ... next year's seasonal outlook effort should go like, Blah blah blah blah pop-cycle headache prose .... with perhaps a 20% increased chance for a spring cold and snow lingering into May.

Precisely ...glad you picked up on the implicit idea of 'counter-intuitive' ... Anyway, it's long been theorized that this isn't an even march. Some places do counter the mean overall, ...we just may be one of those over eastern N/A There's also that bag of tricks surrounding the Atlantic ( and probably might be somewhat applicable to the Pacific too ) thermo-haline cycling and surface densification breakdown causing the suppression of the G-string ... ( that's one warming we we actually want! ) Jokes aside, I'm sure you are familiar, but with the Lab current and NW Europe getting cold when the rest of the world heats for a century ... I don't think this is that...no, but it's just along that same idea that there are offset regions/phenomenon -

I really wish folks would start ubiquitously gaining exposure to the cornucopia of studies formally being papered/peer-reviewed, that are frankly free now.. Baffling, but seasonal lag due to Pacific warm surplus folding over continental mean circulation eddies was floated by theoretical works in the 1990s even... well... here we are. Would anyone with a modicum of cogency argue THAT up there isn't seasonal f'um lag? It makes sense... because as May progresses into June...the continents concomitantly heat up, and that then stops the trough aspect of the Pac-ridge/continental trough coupling model.. It seems we deal with this more and more seasons...2013 - 217 were four weird years that may or may not offset this ...but by and large, since 2000, late season +PNAPs and cold loading have been increased in frequencing compared to the previous 200 -some odd years of climo, and...doing it on top of the CC hockey stick curve, just like was theoretically proposed. So, maybe no one is actually arguing this - hahaha...but still, it's to the point ( for me ) where I'm not surprised... Oh, sure - that scale and degree of 520 dm SPVs passing through Upstate NY is suprising...but the idea of delaying seasonal commitment should not be.

Yeah, it is interesting to see the GFS attempting similarly ... I'd still suggest modulating that for obvious reasons - one is not typically going to score a win prognosticating off a -5 or more SD anomaly being accurately assessed by any guidance beyond D5 or 6... That said the GEFs - based teleconnectors do carry a cold signal into May - so despite the balm that's likely Sat-Monday.. oy. I don't think that is going to be the same as 2005 May, tho... This cold pattern appears to be fuller loaded latitude integrated/hemispheric r-wave event compared to butt-bang of lore. It's NW territory to Georgia coastal R-wave resonance with unusually sloped flow ...but, that is requiring double stream phasing/N-stream... 2005 May was a different scenario entirely - speaking to the straw man in the room here. That was a cut-off low over the Del Marva that kept getting new back side jet inserts that would re-deepen it and re-engineer new coastal waves that in total pulled the entire structure back west across three separate oscillations some 3 to 4 days apart. Such that some three weeks (basically gobbled up the entire month of May that year) was plagued with nearly identical weather: 48/41 NE wind and rain sheets. I think the ORH hills picked up some sleet and mangled noodle or two in there, but by and large, it was crime against humanity by God- him/herself... This situation isn't that... it's just a raging demo of seasonal lag ... one that probably would only last 3 to 5 days anyway ... the EPS mean is probably safer.

Why - what do you think you are looking at here ? That's not snowing anywhere around here, just in case ... But perhaps your motivation is just to keep things cold ...if so, maybe... but, consider tomorrow's synopsis: 12z NAM's FOUS profile suggest it's likely +5C aoa 850 mb. That was +1C three days ago, then...steadily warmed in every guidance cycle since. That is a typical behavior at this time of year in model behavior/bias, where/when guidance has to do that ...almost like catching up to the season as bush observation. Folks of the anti warm season, negative S.A.D. ilk, you probably might wanna keep this facet in mind when gawking over cold outlooks, that they will tend to modify warm getting nearer. I also recommend backing off the scale and degree of the January in May pattern the Euro's selling...It's trying to back off already, by showing more retrograde motion with the D8 -10 SPV over the Canadian shield; last run it attempted to nestle that 516 DM heights to almost Lake Superior on May 8th - heh, no problem... without a super volcano or a celestial impact event? unlikely... In the meantime, at least for those of us out here in the majority we can enjoy a fine weekend. Tomorrow looks like utopia if these NAM numbers pan out. NW wind veering W over the course of the afternoon, while lightening toward 10 knots flag wobbling... zero clouds, and low humidity, under those 850 mb thermal plumb described above, is probably going to bust MOS and send the temperature toward or exceeding 70 as a slam dunk ... Hovering over driveways and parking lots probably a 75 F ... has that classic spring look of NWS sites 68 F but it is actually warmer where civility lurks.

Well .. in defense of that it’s not like we’ve having trouble lowering eastern Canadian heights, either... It’s like there’s that tendency, then adding to it is reenforcing the Euro tendency. EPS day 6 + is usually tamer and more sensible. Right. I just have not seen one Euro vortex work out since like 3 upgrades ago

Yeah...I'd like to see the Euro pull off a -7 SD vortex there .... oh, wait - day 9 go wonder It's comical watching it take a cumulus cloud over southern Manitoba D5.5 and turns it into west Atlantic bomb by the end of the run. Not sure why this tendency to over-amp anything in the flow D6 to 10 isn't settling in ... yet folks keep using it to make points. haha.

Btw...did anyone else notice this? Tomorrow could be interesting in a nerdy way, between 2 and 8 pm. Both the Euro and NAM show a very deep dry slot between 850 and 500+ MB levels opening and typically when veering the winds from SSE to SW like that ( both guidance), the cloud products will over cake. So partial clearly sweeping across the area, and with LI's regionally in the -2 to +2 range. We are in May keep in mind ...and 2 to 5 pm sun may just add a touch of instability. The air could be 62/57 like with whisky towers ... strange look there a bit. Not summer or nothing but homage-like.

You can see the fight though ... I still maintain that the 850 mb thermal layout relaxed the cold complexion quite a bit terminating 2 or 3 days back when that last meandering cool event finally gobbled up the unusual chill plume lingering south of 40 N and whirled/terminated it out into the Maritimes. What we are left with ( unfortunately .. do to other timings) is a milder troposphere unrealized at the surface - but it is a warmer total depth. It is psychologically too easy to chastise and tenor dour when we are on the N side of an impossibly slow moving warm front today, stuck in the mid 40s and raining. But Saturday ( if you believe this NAM solution, and I do, because it matches the Euro reasonably well from 00z ) will show that warmer potential... Dawn-ish the skies are clear and mid morning d-slope dandy flow is established under 850 mbs of +2 to +3 C ... mid day being lazed by a May sun angle. 12z NAM MOS puts up 64 at KFIT but I gotta think if that synopsis plays out they should bust by four ...say 68 F. KASH ..etc... over achievers over decks, patios, front-yards and driveways - and probably 73 too if the wind were to drop off. Either way, it's not the same troposphere as last week. Sunday clouds contamination otherwise probably warmer. First time we have a shot at stringing two days of that sort of feel ... Just an op-ed perspective: My own expectations for April's are set pretty low to begin with. "...Is the cruelest month" .. for a reason It is, per my own experience, exceedingly rare to string decent days together during this cursed annual journey through seasonal lag that defines the NE climate. The seasonal lag stuff is actually being augmented further by CC too, for complex balancing reasons which we won't get into.. But, sufficed it is to say if however counter-intuitive, this present era "stage" of the warming world atmosphere means super-synoptic scaled 'tucking' over eastern north america ... and that means we have a built in butt-bone for warm enthusiasts from March 20 to June 10 every year. Doesn't mean - as usual - conditions will always suck,... but it does mean a relentless diet of Kevin installation futility posts during that time.. heh. It's like 'white men can't jump'? They can, they just have to work extra hard to do it - that's our spring. We can get balmy but it's harder. We have a long way to go before this miserable spring gets anywhere close to the rectal plaque that was May of 2005 - not even in the same apoplectic universe as that. Lastly, these cold regimed extended frames have been routinely modulated milder heading into the mid terms so I'm less impressed with digging up ensemble cold members and pretending it makes the -(SAD) 10% really unhappy to see that. ha!

No ...that Boston number has it's value - but one has to be a meteorologist to understand why ..so - It was 62 setting out on that 25 mi ride; hit the breeze boundary and finished in 48 F and it was brutal !! We're 30 miles inland as the crow flies. I knew there was risk of that dense cold marine boundary layer rollin in but the gamble didn't pay off - and it wasn't a very good ride because of it. To cold for the gear I was in -

Yeah that event was horribly handled by the GFS of the time. There's been a upgrade since ... Recall, it was trying to flag 111 F, 2-meter temperature(s) at Bedford Mass ...run after run, but with DPs of just 60 F... So, 111/60 ... Pheonix in Boston? No problem - That version of the GFS of that time was a particularly egregious embarrassment by NOAA... It almost seemed more than figuratively as though they just f'ed up and left out the lower level thermodynamic equations when they modular snapped that puppy together - and of course ... buried the fact that they did by ignoring the issue and not drawing attention to the mistake or some diversion of strategy..haha. But in the lower 100 to 200 mbs of the troposphere - quite plausibly related to it's bad theta-e management/physics. It also had that nor'easter earlier that March ...remember that? 2" to 3" of 6-hourly QPF with a DP spread of 8 F ( 39/31). That lent many to think it was missing a blue bomb potential if correcting toward wet-bulb. So, there was bated hope ... oops. What happens? OH, we wet bulbed ... to 35/34 with 2" to 3" of rain -- wah wah wahhhh... Oh if one were nerdy enough to look cat paws. That's part of the 'emergent butt-bang' mystique, too. I mean, the model is wrong, and we still rained - Anyway, that GFS was a joke... Not sure if this present version is any better with those thermodynamics in the boundary layer. Both versions have a 'stretching' /longitude bias in the mid levels that's pretty demonstrable at all times, ... heredity it has gained from the last version, which also did that progressivity thing even worse. So it may be incrementally improved, who knows... But in any/all these cases, that heat dome from that big ridge event that early July was still verifying less. Even at 95/76 (76 might be pricey... was it less?), that was under cooked by some ... so as far as as the synergy abstraction, it was both a failed historic ridge because of the weird nodal-hemispheric cool sink, while still managing to be an inferno - which perhaps belies the former... interesting.

I get the humor ... but you know, there is a kind of 'emergence tendency' ? It's a bit abstract as a concept, but the 'gestalt' : the synergistic product that cannot really be defined by individual component analysis, but when they operate together, you get winning or losing streaks. In either streak, the contribution seems to be unchanging, yet for some reason, the results flop positive or negative ... notwithstanding observation biases and all that rigor - We've been in losing streak for cold and snow enthusiasts, period. We've had leading indicators that just flat out failed. And, some of the indicators themselves also failed - which makes it 'uniquely failing' - it's as though insidious like some agency is attempting to deliberately lead down primrose paths only to prove deceptive - haha. Seriously though, we've had times in our lives when the opposite for cold and snow enthusiasm ...where we couldn't lose. Every perturbation physically identifiable upstream in the hemisphere's greater circulation eddy just found a way to delay office and school openings. We don't question the success times with quite the same zeal, I can imagine. Interesting. But, this is also interesting to me because I feel we've been getting stolen summers too? This has gone on since 2015's big February of lore and fact. We had a big historic heat dome two summers ago that frankly didn't verify anywhere close to what was modeled - 95/76 is nothing to shake a stick at but... 103/67 it was not. Maybe the DP/theta-e increases associated with CC and storing > WV absorbed some of the heat... who knows...But, every other heat chance has been less than that, and/or failing to materialize to the point of modeled... And there is some truth to the behavior - regardless of cause - where dimmed summers relay into early cool snaps that can't seem to parlay into winter proper. I was discussing this 'seasonal lag' effect with Mets unaffiliated with this social media and there is an agreed sentiment... the expanding HC may be why winters are being odd... Where in the summer, there is lingering tendencies to hold more ridging in the NE Pac and that is causing a counter mass balanced tendency over eastern N/A ( spread out in the longer term mean ) to lower heights just enough to keep us out of contention as a 'hot-spot' in the on-going month-to-month 'state of the climate' releases by NASA and forth. We are above normal more than not, just 'not as' much so as our synergistic result of these seasonal lag effects - supposition but it's rooted theoretically.

actually agree with this in principle... I've been trying to intimate the same in the terminating April thread - that we sort of turned the seasonal page this last week. Ending with this current system pulling away, the 850 mb thermal layout is really relaxed and > 0C S of the 45 N ... Granted the Euro attempts to flood that back in D7; I'm willing to put money down that is typically lowering heights to prodigiously in it's D7-10 - that model's going to be tough to use for sniffing out heat waves at longer leads. GFS too ...actually. Both models abolish domes for different reasons. The euro tends to take any day 5 or 6 cumulus cloud it sees over eastern Montana ...and uses it to carve out a magnificent eastern trough. While the GFS has a perpetual rasp always grinding ridge arcs flat... Either bias mutes warm getting to the 40th parallel. The Euro may actually over amplify ridges, too - - but we have admittedly not really given it that opportunity with this weird cold at least excuse imaginable pattern we've been in this recent 30 days. It's been the perfect storm of uninspired annoying weather. Overly cold and cyclonically tasty in the D8 never had a chance of verifying cold enough for a late snow ...while keeping foliage dormant because it's actually too cool to trigger green-up. Oh, it's smattering now....sure, but last year and this year, these cold April's back to back, are noticeably late here along Rt 2 compared to the previous 3 springs... 2015 was the last belated spring ... Probably average butt-bangin' for this cursed geographic region of the planet and it's atmosphere - I'll tell ya I'm living in the wrong environment after March 15 ... I'm checked out by that date, and about 2/3rds of all springs, that is when the cold checks in because of this maddening seasonal lag we've been getting more and more of because of apparent CC

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html