Typhoon Tip

But why was it named FURnace creek

Oh that's right. Yeah I had forgotten they had a huge snowbomb year out there.

Yeah agreed ... for now. i echoed theses sentiments in my usually logorrhea heh

Isn't there snow in those particular elevations year round ...?

The Euro run looks like what I was trying to elucidate earlier.... contained in one run! It's trying to concurrently run a GW apocalypse ridge while holding onto vestigial solar nadir/-AO ... I mean at the same time. It ends up 600 dam heights over Nebraska with -2 or even -3 SD vortex over NS for its trouble. Nah...sorry.. those fields are not likely to be that way at that time.

Hm, ...there are other models out there... GGEM really just gets the heat started on D7 ... 8 and 9 are brownoutapolis up and down the I-95 corridor from PWM to DCA. Euro's huge r-wave amplitude looks suspect. It may cool down beyond D7 ... but I'm not ready to believe that run has it right - it's wrong looking for a lot of reasons. One, the wave length is stressing believe-ability at this climate calendar ... Two, the gradient is too weak really to support that long of a trough circumvallate covering eastern Lake/NE all the way to Greenland. Three, the Euro tends to drop the bottom out of the atmosphere between 100W and 70W at mid latitudes as a default D6-10s... Actually, it tends to over do it on ridging the other way, too... I mean... yeah... GGEM is an unsavory go to but unfortunately, it fits the other factors better.

Hard to say ... well, hard to back Stockholm Syndrome - heh. It's been the seasonal trend ( and for other more 'worldly' reasons ... ), to ablate ridges - meaning quite literally eroding them back S. So any attempt to do so ... has the weight of persistence on its side. This has been happening whenever these warm bombs have materialized in the extends, where/when the models then tried to move them closer in time ... by the time the mid range relays into the short range... they're all but gone. This one, however, has a bit of a different look and feel in the modeling? For one, it's been hinted harder than previous ones... in the general tenor of the various operational runs ... Also, though the teleconnection method is dubious at this time of year, the entire suite is actually propagating into a warm signal nonetheless, for at least a week beginning Thur thru the following.... So, seeing the operational runs temporally nesting a shot at bigger heat numbers mid way through then ... mm, it's a different complexion than previous attempts at this. I'm willing to say watch this one. We could be popping a big numbers. So ... we'll see.. But, you're right to mention impulses strafing over the arc of that ridge ... particularly if seasonal trend were the only aspect considered.

For fun... buuut, ha! It's part of the cheating motif the atmosphere's been doing. It's trying to make the stats look like the summer heat lovers got their wishes... while cleverly shirking on any wish - nice

Fwipnw - ... the GGEM and ICON 12z runs were absolute blazers for next weekend... 95-100 particularly Sat/Sun... but Frid and the following Mon are also over 90.

What I find interesting is we are doing so within the envelop of seasonal standard deviation - ie, no particularly notable extremes.

It depends whether we are talking continental ... or just SE Canada and New England. It's closer to climo peak for these areas, granted, and saying things start relaxing afterward is also consistent with that timing... We'll see. Pure speculative, admittedly, ... but imho the continent is destined to go through sloshing, where heat/r-wave wiggles translate heat to mid latitudes ... with varying success ...maybe three times over the next 40 days or so. Any one of which will turn out the warmer ... I've seen the hottest week of summer land in the first week of September .. though rare. Anyway, while all that is happening, we'll have our own private little enabling world of deniability ( haha), but if next week is the pinnacle of the season ... it'll be dumb luck relative to the "40 days and 40 nights" idea It's just balancing the behavior of the larger-scaled circulation medium over our part of the hemisphere ...a trend that seems rooted in longer termed shit. This constant ablation of ridging any/every time one tries to balloon passed the 45th parallel...? It's not an accident. Nice early cool snaps in the fall then the gradient/GW pressure maelstrom kicks in again in Novie to ruin winter... --> f-over spring...rinse repeat as a cute ancillary consequence during our unwitting stratagem to remove Humanity from any evolutionary contention - ehm.. That sawing off ridge propensity ... it appears endemic to the whole Earth right now to be blunt. I wonder if perhaps it is physically associated with the deep solar nadir ...which frankly, lurks. I think that factor is ( probably ) heretofore merely suppressed ( though rears it's influence in subtler ways ...like the westerlies having trouble really retreating and a -AO dominated summer...). It all seems to be modulating/dictating 'how' heat disperses to middle latitudes, and I think intermittency is a reasonable assumption here on out as a summer angel-invested by GW battles it out with -AO. Just my 2 pennies worth. That all said... I don't like the 00z idea... A 1.5 day spike at 850 sending Ts at that sigma level to historic proportions ... I don't think has ever happened. Now, passed doesn't automatically preclude the future... duh.. But, what the Euro is doing is dancing around the fragility of the look... that's the take away. The GGEM/ and the 06z GFS both look unusually flat where the ridging ( some old same old ) is being sawed off by the -AO westerlies band running W-E near the boarder state latitudes. That makes the entire heat to 40 latitude real, real dicey.

It's an interesting perspective... I've opined in this social media in the past ...based in no smaller measure upon observed occurrences, weird snow in octobers and mays, with unsettling frequency since the year 2000. That interestingly fits your statement there.... Trope, other side of same coin -yar.. This is true what you are saying, and shows for me that this isn't something that I'm singularly noticing, that we seem to be getting strangely increased frequency of colder patterns descending to our relative latitudes ... both unusually early, and late. Since the year 2000 is coming up on 20 years ( of course...) worth, at what point does that sample size become less like noise, and really like some sort of paradigm shift. And these strange 300 + hour mid October pattern semblances ... they're not likely to verify too well, but I'd argue they are perhaps canvasing that same base-line that's causing the former things to happen. Which of course logically leads us to almost presume ... up, here comes another October probably loaded with modeled oddities yet again. Funny thing is... despite any of those Octobers ... there's no clear/coherent correlative essence that portends any way to those ensuing winters. At least that I can see.. The winters themselves are scattered, warm cool wet white or dry ...

The conspiracy theorist in me sees that a lot in this particular model... Massive cold wave is bookended by a "too" conveniently timed warm up of equal proportion... and vice versa. Like it can't just let the warm(cool) departure ride... is it fabricating normalization - It's probably just a natural ordering of R-wave roll-outs/replacement schemes ... I mean, if it's very warm, at some point... it's gotta be very cold, or the climate's changing - oh...wait. But it sometimes seems like the model is engineered to run out and find some corrective pattern so it doesn't blow it's verification wad all over climo and look bad. heh

Course... no sooner do they all get on the same page that the previous heat blast was bullshit ... does the GFS decide, up - big heat time... Get a load of the bow shot air mass 320+ hours though ... on July 26! It has a high temperature of 64 F in unabated 100% sun before Aug 1. That's a neat trick -

That came down Rt 2 outta SE Vt ... right over my town... There was little electrical... There was a pulse of decent outflow winds and it rained heavy for 5 minutes, then moderately for 10 before the sun back intermittently... There was one clap of thunder. It knocked 12 F off the temp but it's still pig bum humid out there.

This tropical air is interesting as ground truth on rain accumulation rates seems to exceed 'what we're used to' associating to radar displays. I watched the radar off and on during the evening hours for central NE and saw mainly 1 sometimes blobs of 2 level orange... Which is "heavy" ... but, 5" ...? Seems a tad pricey for that rad presentation. Obviously there are invisible factors such orographic lifting ...also, wasn't there easterly low level inflow of humid air? These seem to condensate perhaps beneath the radar elevations and so load the column more... Because even with some training the actual ground truth is a bit more than 2 level orange.

83/73 here... this temp bounce has been impressive since going more sun than clouds... Up 10 in the last 2 hours.

I've heard of r-g system/hydration ... My bro-in-law in fact, barrel-stows rain water that falls off the roof, into the eave, then down the spout and stuff... Even installed a spigot to modulate the flow rate out the bottom of said barrel(s) in parallel, grav assisted, into one of those hoses that sweats water through. It keeps his watering budget, both time and money, in check... But my question is, is that safe chemically? It's probably fine ... but, shingles don't occur in nature, naturally ... Some roofs are slate and those do occur in nature, naturally. I just tend to shy away from anything that passes through or is exposed to human 'industry.' It kind of goes by the famous last words of the dog owner, 'don't worry; he only growls'. There is no chemical contrivance or chemistry manipulation, anywhere, that has yet to prove 100% infallibly safe. There are certainly exposures that are safer than others... of course. Benzenes will tumor-up a testicle pretty quickly with exposure... say, but, high -fructose corn syrup only might or might not trigger Pancreatic Cancer.... etc..etc.. I just am not sure if the chemistry of roof shingling isn't leaching quantities of DNA rewrites that are only thought to be insufficiently too little to cause irreparable harm by the arrogance of either science, or the apathy of the user. Just curious. Course, there are chemicals that plants ignore in soils. There are others that hitch ridge along the osmotic action of the roots and actually ends up in the flesh of the plant. That's a whole 'nother aspect.

Mid and high level deck has slabbed rapidly away off the east coast of Massachusetts and will up in Maine as the noon hour approaches... We are left in a bacon ( ASOS 'BKN'/broken) heh.. but with a WNW odd warm sector wind vector ... we may see some subsidence help and together with the hot sun ... The T1 temp in the NAM has been insisting on a 28 C at Logan between 18 and 00z ... which usually is good for 32 C in the 2-meter... That seems pricey at the moment but... I have managed to squeeze my own temp to 76 F despite the murk ... It's probably the sultriest sensible condition thus far I've personally sensed this season, btw...

Oh ... yeah it is now. I'm splashin' But still, the former phenomenon is palpable. There does seem to be an existential delay relative to the satellite presentation/interpretation ... particularly noticeable when approaching amorphous edge work in the skies. I don't know how much of that is pure psychology ...probably all of it. In this case, mornings of murk ... suck. So, not wanting them, perhaps the phenomenon is like similar to a 10 year old in the back seat asking dad, 'are we there yet; are we there yet.' But that word used there, "relative" got me thinking... We all know ... err, "should know," that objects in orbit above those objects suspending deeply in a gravity well experience the passage of time at a slower rate ... Maybe the satellite picture is being snapped off in one frame of reference, and then by the time it is sent through General Relativity's cosmic scaled processor, we are in fact seeing it from the future(past)...depending. Fun sci fi but no... The actual time dilation is negligible compared to other delays... processing time in general. If anything, the delay between the picture being taken, and us seeing it, goes the other way.

Well.. they finally did it. The heat signal has been deconstructed by the models. This recent modeling saga ( which challenges tedium to find a more nuanced awareness...) is the most elaborate variation yet of this weird repeating model trend: Basically, the models lob a heat visions onto the D8-10 as a first guess ...then, spend the next four day's worth of cycles trying to prove to us why it won't happen ... Yeah, why not just not have to begin with... okay - But no, they set up heat waves, then make us watch them argue with themselves and one another, to disprove their own faux perception of the future with only slowly degrading suggestion - thus keeping it possible. Finally, as your D5 and 6's arrive, we find ourselves right back here again, 100% of the time... since late March. Stuck inside this unrelenting NW flow prison sentence with endless parole denials. Watching summer heat from afar. I really do not believe any model run beyond about day four has had any practical usefulness in any deterministic weather efforts since late March. 100% of the time, we've eroded and or defaulted entirely, right back to this 'keep new england cooler relative to the everywhere else at least excuse imaginable' ... Normally ... "patterns" have a residence of about 90 days tops... Most are around 45 days, before some sort of reshuffle occurs and sends the general circulation through some other paradigm. It may even return to the former dynamic, but the system resets. This is pushing it -

It's one of those morning where there is definitive clearing on satellite right over you on sat/vis imagery but no evidence of any brightening anywhere stepping out of doors. I swear, the satellite is sending pictures from the future some times... Heh.

Clear warm boundary was cutting NW to SE through NE Mass... Anywhere N of that axis was probably a piece of shit day.. I left work at Shrewsbury Mass, ...which is about 5 clicks E of Worcester, on Rt 2 and it was 85 and partly sunny, with actively swaying tree limbs ...leaves pointed NE like stress flags... By the time I got to the interchange of I-191/Rt 2 ...there was no wind, the temp was 72 and the streets were running water as the rain had just ended... Pretty significant difference across the boundary. Since then the temps down along the Pike have settled back to 75-ish but y'all still struggle to get rid of last winter yet still up N... heh.

Hm ... Hi res vis satellite looping this morning must be doing a seriously good job at belying the actual 'center' for this fledgling TC, Barry, because there is no way in hell looking at said loop that one would be inclined to believe NHC's fix of 27.8/88.7 is where this thing is actually located... Fascinating... They do mention, "..although it is still elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the mean center. .." so that must explain ( or plausibly can..) these inconsistencies. They are also playing much better homage/attention to the fact that shear is present... Also, dry air contamination ...so this discussion is much improved overall. Can't beat RECON fixes... Satellite is the biggest liar of all observational tools in the shed ... I remember back years ago... there was a system moving through the eastern Caribbean... It was a monster on satellite, with a CDO like feature so cold there was no spectral color-coding analysis ...It was like an 'event-horizon' inside of it ... gnarly black and the term 'ominous' offered more hope for survival compared to the certainty of doom cast by these satellite impressions... Seriously. Scary. It was surrounded by a massive massive exhaust plume, too, that persisted for a couple days... In which NHC had it fixed as a strong tropical storm/borderline Cane... maybe even frightened for what they'd might actually find when finally, they got a RECON flight inside there ... Open wave with almost no counter-flow from the west. Yup, despite the Chicxulubean impact satellite cinema ... the S. side of the previously believe closed system .. pretty much didn't exist... I think even 24 hours later... the depth and awesome spectacle of the convection on satellite did simmer down and exposed almost a nothing system by the time it succeed Hisp. longitude... while S of that island. .. I think it eventually limped into the Yuk as depression.

It's all done in good jest ... yeah I know - But still, wouldn't it be easier just to rely on King's English? There's already a word for the antic, and it is "exaggerator" ... everything else is rhetoric for a chuckle, understood. He certainly loves the attention - which I'm unfortunately giving him here. He doesn't seem to care if said attention is negative or positive, either. We can probably suspect with a fair amount of confidence ... the attention he seeks, is the sole mechanism for the constant hyperbolic stream of twaddle. It's the reaction/response pleasure game for him.