Typhoon Tip

I was just looking at that ... and comparing to the hashing for SPC's SLIGHT that's primarily for S of the Pike... I wonder if that should be extended to southern VT/NH given the satellite trends. It appears we peel this open over the next hour or two... and gosh, what a high launch pad. I feel we are uniquely ( for our area) initially situated for creating a CAPE anomaly to put it nicely - By the way folks...this air is clearly of Barry guts origin. This reminded me exactly of that which engulfed the area the evening after Gloria blew through that fateful day back in 1985. The air had a kind of pithy heat - it's different than just high heat and humidity. It's hard to put a finger on it..but you can tell visceral WV thermal energy from continental stuff.. It's like the air is rich chocolate. Metaphors aside... the other aspect is just how homogeneous it is ... It was 76 at my place at 6:30 am ... which is about at the top of where I have ever seen the temperature at that particular hour and location in the 10 years I've lived there. Then, at none of the typical cool points along the commute did the temperature deviate. 76 ...everywhere. That's strange. Even at the Shrewbury light ...where a 4 to 6 F plunk is guaranteed... 76 ... That's tropical goop. So, anyway... sat seems to suggest we get some solar dosing into that - hmm

Cool down next week is de-amplifying slowly across new cycles, too ---- Thursday to Friday impressed me in the 00z operational Euro run. The Euro and NAM look similar at this point. They've coalesced around a weakly close low S of SNE during the Thursday ... With somewhat higher surface pressure lobed around central and N NE .. light easterly anomalies penetrate throughout the region ( terminating somewhere in NE PA ) ... Temperatures likely will held into the 60s or early 70s despite whatever MOS is indicating... Friday? 93-97 ... It looks like 21 .. 22 C at 850 mb over top a mixing west wind burst to the coast in the afternoon. Circa 1 to 3pm probably tsunamis heat if that does that. That could be 25 to 30 F turn around 24 hours. .. which, I suppose we've gone the other way when shock BDs p-wave a bomb blast of cold air before.. But it's not just temperature. DP goes from 61 mist to 75 blue tinted hill side stingin' sweat in the eyes. The air's going to smell like continental crotch rot. Granted...I'm just using the less refined synoptic charts we get at the PSU type sites... but, using those ..this appears to be a clear and abrupt bulk turn around .. replacing marine/summer cP ...with deep cT air.. and very abrupt change across an unusually disparate difference. Admittedly ..I was casting aspersions at the notion of a quick turn-around on Friday, yesterday...but, we are inside the Euro's particular verification dominance and also... the run its self has less overall idiosyncratic nuances offering distraction and just looks cleaner? But, yeah... this then goes on to be unperturbed heat through Sunday, which the onus now falls the GFS to put up or shut up being that where we are relative to model performances ... Basically, this looks like 93 to 100 Fri-Sun, period.

watch ... it'll be today and tomorrow as the longest stretch of 90 + we get out of this week... 18z GFS now fails Friday completely after Thursday's shit show BD ... and Sunday's now down to 92 ... one more trend run and that's it. Single day of heat - it's almost comical watching these models erode this thing like they actually personally don't like it.

oh it's not getting hot ... this thing's been a constant mind-f* all week in the models -

Mmm... we go through phases that last all different time spans, where the product of noise only seems to favor flopping things on cold or hot sides of normality. But, it's like coin flipping? You can flip heads-tales-heads-heads-heads-tales-tales-head-heads-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tale-tales... and think, oh, well, those heads early on were just outliers... But then you flip heads 80 times out of nowhere before returning back to every-other-one again... No pattern really - Smacks as something like that,... the whole March cool vs warm thing. Although, suppose GW (or GC) gets out of control sloped, than any given March may have a somewhat better chance of being warmer(cooler) respective of that.

I'm pretty sure if we convert sigma coordinates to feet elevation we'd find that 1, 000 is plenty high enough to be well above the BL logarithmic sloping... We've had boundary layers only 1,000 deep before.. rare. But like you said, give me a Sonoran release air mass up over southern Can and down ( I believe that was hot Sat back in the 1970s) and that direction is katabatic for Worcester .. they'll cook. But your right, ...the more typical continental conveyor is actually a borderline 'upslope' condition .. folks need to realize.. in neutral buoyancy if the air has any forced ascent at all, that is cooling the parcel - doesn't have to be all the way down to the condensation point to begin that process. In a way ... if it's 91 at HFD in a so-so DP and you run that up the west sides of the hills there.. you may actually lose a couple ticks that way.

On the fence... I wonder if this propensity for buckling the flow above the 45th parallel that doesn't seem to be going away from the models... Is that "perhaps" a clue that there is meridional canvas lurking here?

wow... that's pretty amazing seeing that turn around on the GFS like that. That does look like an abrupt whiplash heat pulse after Thursday gets mutilated by the GOM - huh ... well hell.

Ah haha - so you're sayin' it'd be totally legit too

Top notch angles dude ...

Like I said... and I don't speak for other Mets or whomever ... but, if the NAM is right about the mass and aggression in which it slams that in... Yeah, I think Friday disappoints over eastern New England. We just have too many decades of sore butts not to tip-toe by the BD dong haha.. Seriously, we'll have to see how potent that BD is ...

Nope -completely negligible differences.. It's hard to really glean the BD out of that mess... The NAM's numerical parameters is what really suggests one is 'hidden' in that fray. From the larger more generalized synopsis ... there is a wave forming on the front and that is serving to accelerate/draw cool saturated marine puke all the way down SW of NYC... That whole thing could relax half way and you'd still be f'ed I'm afraid. Friday you should break back the other way sooner than Worcester, sure - ... but you're definitely spending time in jail.

Oh forget it, dude ... Sorry, your not invited to the party that day "IF" this aggressive of a BD takes place. That contention you described there ? That is all but a concession of total failure... may as well be, and a residence cool/murk slab that steals the whole day.

I give the NAM propts for playing homage to all the sore-butt times in the lower resolution modeled 1990s that either denied BDs... or, tried to erode their toxic sludge out too readily the next day. It's like it's remember the shrill agony of ancestral modeled passed and trying - ha We had an old rule of thumb when strata deckage cold sloshed in and slammed up against Berks like a terminating tsunamis wave ... always take the most retarded warm up model and add yet another 12 hours to it... Not so sure about now though... In 20 years, they may be better about timing of erosion/bust out... My guess is, there's stills something to be desired and improvements can be had. But holding temp to the upper 80s could even be generous if that air mass is really going to be all that invasive as these numbers suggested. We'll have to see just how strongly the BD arrives... If the NAM proves over zealous, than obviously it takes less to back/erode it out again.. If it's right on the front side though... I certainly wouldn't error on the side of an earlier Friday heat return. Yup... we may actually succeed at NOT getting a heat wave here at all if these atmosphere keeps engineering this shit. You know ... this is all part-and parcel in why we can't really put money down on flat ridging delivering heat here... It's too f'n fragile. It waits until nearer terms to suddenly see the BD this or the front sped up timing on Sunday that...

Yup ... and I know the markers in the FRH grid ... Classic set up here for that - we'll see... But, first the wind flips from SW to NW... then, creeps around the dial to light NE ... then, the acceleration brings low tide to slammed up against the Worcester Hills with trees swaying in gusts.. Meanwhile ... the radar show llv echo band sinuously wobbling west-SW toward a Kevin ... texting how it'll never get there. Oh it does... and instead of admitting it, he just disappears and won't post for 24 hours sulking -

That's probably a 'double boundary' on the NAM actually ... We get a limped switch to NW flow around 20 Z tomorrow ... with convection rippin in the area by the way. That front A. B comes along after the wind tries veer more NE over 6 hours... but somewhere around 00z, we get this sudden strong pulse of 25 kt sustained wind striking the coast ... temps plummet to 16C too... So, it's going to be a whole 'nother world by 10pm. I bet one could smell the ocean quite far inland when that pulse arrives. This secondary acceleration won't really even be analyzed by WPC but it's real.. It may even show up on hi res base reflectivity as a ribbon moving SW through the area. It's intents too.. That's a llv cold wedge there on this 12z NAM run...If that happens...it may actually take a bit more of Friday to get this back out of here... Remember, once we slab Atlantic murk underneath rising heights ... it has a way of cheating and stealing time away from hot return attempts.

Yeah ... you nailed it. That's precisely it... I have a met text/fact -based book among my dusty collection at home. Among other facets of our beloved field... it describes that setting and why - Not sure how civility could even have come to adapt. But.. it is tolerated and they do. I mean...thinking about it... there was no "A.C.'ed" brick and mortar and steel and glass structures there ... before what, 70 ... 90 years ago. What did the Bedouin cultures of pre-industrial dawning Middle East, like ... do? Modern times did see the advent of those environmental technologies in close enough concert with urban arrivals. Probably, ...they cannot be separated as phenomenon... Like, I can't imagine a modern building in Dubai without environmental controls, so I'm even willing to suspect that A.C. macro-tech evolved necessarily first... then the sky-lines erected around that region of the world. But Jesus dude... I'm amazed by heat... Not so much heat that's "expected" - like... I'm not impressed by 40" of snow in one dose on mount Shasta ... But, people pound away at their keyboards, posts of awe and joy - meh. Likewise... I'm not runnin' out to a salt flat 10 miles outside of Furnace Creek Cali under a +3 SD ridge, and acting like it's incredible. Still, having "successfully" engendered a civility that is obviously, vastly more complex than Bedouin nomadic and tribal, in that setting, is an entirely fascinating achievement. Ha... you know ..I chuckle imagining counting to three ...then bolting to run from car across parking lot to grocery store or else you DIE. Like ...running on hot coals challenge...

Dubai ? ...interesting... why were you there? You're lucky... I wanna see so much - but feel just like all the other flies in the economic amber of the proletariat life.

Well... here's another school of thinking ... GW planetary/environmental modeling doesn't exact spurn the notion of increasing frequency of elevated DPs in the integrated atmosphere. We've seen 84 F DPs over the Iowa farming ambiance ... This was quite noticeable in the 2012 heat wave - a rare heat wave that nearly matched what's been taking place more repetitively abroad, but struck from the the MS Valley to the M/A .. At it's capped apex ( meaning open sear unabated solar irradience with limited vertical mixing ...) DPs were 78 to 85 through eastern NE ... IA to northern IL.. That's transient anthropogenically induced. I'm not sure how the former GW plays into that. It has to by some .. intuitively. Anyway, the notion/fact that we have relatively lower incidences of 90 F high temperatures across New England, yet...many climate sites are soared to + 4.. 5 or more above for July so far, ...connected to elevated nocturnal lows... See ... here's the insidious problem ... water. It's specific heat by volume is 4. and half times greater compared to air ...without water. By sustaining more vapor content, ...even decimals ( thus ) have a profound impact on the thermal behavior of the atmosphere. Namely, .1 C may mean 2 F ... just spit-ballin' an example... It's not a geometrical relationship is all I'm saying. We could be running just a slight positive DP anomaly ( GW or not... but I suspect as much...), and that would account for these lows being elevated. I've taken note my self that all of these mild nights have happened when it was clear. So, ..it's not for a dearth of radiational opportunities. This could all be partially or totally true, and the DPs could still just be totally wrong by the Euro... Just trying to provoke thought

The region around the Red Sea around NE Africa is touted as the highest combination of sustained dew point temperature in combination with high temperature on the planet. Combinations as high a 115/88 have been noted in that region in the past. It seems what the Euro is attempting to do, is get us into the 80th %tile of hottest total thermodynamic circumstance plausible. But, ... 80% does offer some wiggle room

In general ... when DP is added to air, it steals from the temperature ... That's the old trusty, PV=NRT at work for ya - 96/76 might be a good call anyway but we don't have to limit per se ... Case in point, in 2011 ... 102/75 too place down there and it wasn't an accident of a single outlier, either... It was pervasive down that way, with a scattering throughout metrowest of Boston too ... ( I wanna say July 22? but I'm notoriously bad with exact dates) . Anyway, that was about as ideal of a set up on that faithful date as can be achieved ( interestingly about that day ... mid afternoon a kind of 'dry line' swept down the Mohawk Trail all the way to the coast ...roughly N of the Mass Pike... and stranded the heat there with bone-dry variety. I recall Fitchburg had a DP in the mid to upper 60s at 99 around noon... but 3pm it was low to mid 50s at one dollar). Hard to say what Saturday's DP bathe will exactly be - cannot be ascertained (still) from Tuesday. I don't think anyway. But if 850 mb temperatures are 22 or 23 C on a West wind the sfc can get to 102 just eyeballin' the skew-t/log-p diagram... ( Oh know ...not ... actual meteorology!) 22 C gets you to ~ 97 using standard adiabat and 1000 mb.. but, 23 gets you just over 98 ... but the 2-meter is usually a logarithmic slope good for almost 2 C and there's you'r 101 ... 102.. The Euro attempts to miss a heat wave entirely... Whaaa - Yup... First of all it's joined the others in using Barry's theta-e smear to choke out Thursday. NAM just goes so far as to generate actual close isobars as his guts come... which of course sensibly acts like a flag taut BD ... Either way, that all took Thursday out of contention, so regardless of heat tomorrow ( marginal 90 as it appears...), we have to reset. Friday and Saturday are slam dunks ... But Sunday is morphing into more of wildcard than folks may realize. This is a weird whack pattern we are in.. First of all, we shouldn't be getting this "deterministically" hot with such a flat ridge. That does not mean flat ridges can't bring heat - it means... deterministically. As in, no margin for error, yet ...no perturbations or errors in four days of this ? Think about that.. but's been stalwart for at least for Friday and Saturday. Relative to that, it's possible the Euro is too amped with the trough in Ontario early next week as an entirely separate matter... oy - The long of the short is.. I could see an earlier front Sunday capping 89 ...and then we got a week that looks sumpin' like, 77/96/100/89 ... No heat wave trophy for you! I kind of hope that happens... 89/101/101/89 ... it underscores the silliness of human rules and conventions ...

BD impressive on 00z FRH grid ... flag strainer sustained chill into Logon abruptly ... 60 deg at 20 kts 93 73 93 wed-Fri

Euro edged hotter... Now bringing the dragon's ribbon over our area... This is a bit different than the 00z ..and prior cycles, too, which had that suppressed enough that we edged 18 C's at 850.. hot but not the same as this 22 C look for Saturday. Also, it's decided to wait until tornado Tuesday to evac the air mass change - ... I don't think the trough in SE Canada is right though... Forgetting everything else, that's a typical bully depth by this model in that range/location. Annywho, this run is still offering very little margin for error but gets the heat in here. ... oy. Hey, if we get to Wednesday this time and it's still gung-ho...I'd feel a lot a better about 97

Yeah ... I get it about the 99 versus 89 thing. I was just musing with PF last week ... it's on my bucket list to walk off an airplane into 120 F ... It's no different than wanting to visit the Eiffel Tower, the Great Wall of China, the Pyramids... the 72" snow on the level after compaction winter pack - ... In that same vein, to be able to amble around the town with the car dash at 104 or 106 knowing that in reality it's 101 clad, is just something to tell the grand kids. But most of all ... knowing is part of life - and one cannot really know something unless they're there. We can always live vicariously through others but ...there's nothing like first hand accountability. Accept for thunderstorms ... I'm weird about that.. I'd rather be situated out side the CB's impact space so that I can see it's majesty against the back ground, and watch all the nerd cloud parcels bubbling away with electricity dancing inside and out of their nebular plumes. Once underside... it's not that same as the cool appeal of a sideways cob-webbing snowfall, where you start to feel disappointed when you know it's ending. With bangers... I just want to get back into the sun so I can see the cloud again..

Actually ... good point. I was thinking wrt to overall structure of the system and intensity.. But, prolific rain as an individual metric - I'm less than certain of there ...