Typhoon Tip

Why do you do this dude... ? jokes aside, it's like clock work with you - I did not say that. I don't know who did, but I would not condone that, so it is not "mentioning this" because that couches me in with that ... I simply said above normal... to which 13 to 16 C ...that's not 90s anyway.

Giving cred where it's due... Scott may be right about the apex of the summer idea... I first wasn't inclined to thing so... but, I also wasn't staring down the barrel of back to back hundos, either. That's sort of crept up. It was looking like 96 ...and still might ( wondering about those thunder) I mean, this is probably a top tier heat event ... I mean it may not topple 'Hot Saturday' ...per se... But, it certainly could come close and also ....longevity and noctural probably will put this right up there with some more historically distant hall of famers. ... Either way, it's hard to get 100 and it very difficult to do so back to back - even if that fails ...the very possibility looking as clean as it does, is exceptionally rare. So, that said... buy statistic alone, that makes it harder to foresee doing this more than once in the same year. We could get 5 more heat waves between next week and September 15th, and blast this summer into the annuls of the warmest ( which would be comical after a kind of wet slow start ), and still not achieve 100/82/100 across 36 hours... Plus, suppose this exact same circumstantial synopsis sets up on August 19... it's probably 99/78/98 or something to atone for a smidge less solar -

Still a warmer than normal run out there on the Euro (12z) ... altho obviously it won't compare to this weekend - it may even "seem" cool after this abuse next Wednesday. It also suggests not-so-fast on the Monday fropa.. That pressure pattern looks like the front is trended slower, and with a S/W cutting through Michigan 12z that day...we may yet end up still on the warm side of things with bigger convection concerns with that look. The 'real' cool back fropa isn't till early Tuesday. One day near 11 or so C at 850 and we're 13 to 16 C through the run. Meh...Euro is correctable beyond D4 just sayn'

Hey Chris... hate to talk shop after 3pm on a Friday buuut... This is strange ... a little. Wonderin' if y'all had seen or discussed. The models are puking 580 to 584 dm thickness up across the eastern OV/NE regions over the next 36 hours. Having them that high, for that long, is nothing shy of astounding for said regions - that alone is worth of discussion. But, the heights. The hydrostatic heights are only some 4 or 5 dm higher than those thicknesses. That's cutting it kind of close for the hypsometric - hydrostatic relationship. I mean... the former integrate through the latter, means it is pretty much mathematically impossible for them to ever = one another. But, just the same...it's increasingly more difficult to even approach ... This is like getting close 99 % the speed of light no-no .. Kidding there, but doesn't this seem interesting. It seems the heights should 590 min and 594 might be more typical for those hypsometric results

actually there's a watch now out that way... SPC terminates the storm chances pretty quickly at the door stop of western NE though... for whatever reason. interesting

It appears the nose of that theta-e plume out there is helping to ignite some deep convection from SE Mi to western NY ... do we MCS tonight? I'm not sure we'll meet the criteria for that but... there's probably some variance to getting that to happen.

Yeah... the late high is an option today.. Really as little as two hours ago ...WPC was still analyzing a vestigial warm frontal smear trying to move but probably getting damped out ... either way, that wasn't realized then and sort of sets the region up for offsetting the max potential perhaps an hour or so later than normal. I could see some places maxing closer to 4:30 or even 5 down at the shores.

Are you trying to make a point with this... ? Not sure what that would be.. In any case, the top modeled output and the prognostic bottom annotated chart, do not really match - fyi... They are in fact almost 180 degrees out of phase... Perhaps that's what you meant? If so, agreed - I guess.. heh Yeah the Lakes have a semi-permanent trough implied seasonal mean that is illustrated. Contrasting, the top chart has a ridge in that same location. More over, the top ...even if it has any deterministic value at this sort of time lead, is just one day ...whereas the bottom ( again ) represents a seasonal mean/bias therein.. Apples and oranges.

I've got 92/75 on the average local stations in town here in Ayer, but it's 91/72 in KBED... I mean, not that bad really... account for tarmac vs chicken butts

hhehhgh... ...man, 'magin the DP 2 clicks down wind of a hog farm - does 'smell' effect DP in any way. haha

Yeah... will do

Not sure I buy it... perhaps I can be sold It just it seems dubious ( to me) that it is endemic to the Lakes and NE ... I could see that as a storm route attributed, and related to what Chris said, where it rains...it's been more prolific. I think it's possible it's more ubiquitous than just the Lakes/NE... Where are classic/climo cyclone routes all over the planet, the real problem is that measuring techniques are not unilateral performed the same way - certainly not historically... Go back 70 years.. .. What we have to realize as scientists and advancing enthusiasts ( not that you don't, just sayn') is that we are on a hockey-stick of sensory technology that was not shared nearly as evenly as near as 20 years ago, ...which was vastly superior to 50 years prior to that... Which was godly compared to a 100 years prior to even then. You get back a couple bucks in history and everything is coring and reanalysis... which has it's usefulness, sure... But, a lot of the honing into climate variance stuff is in the details of decimals? Ahhh...I find that too easily lost in short numbers of decades... And considering the the climate, its self, is also on a hockey stick... we are more so having difficulty comparing the current "flux" era with pre industrialization -

Not attempting to impugn your's and Bri's station/instrumentation ... but, unfortunately the truth is these personalized stations are always higher than NWS' ... I mean, the average has pretty much never been the other way around as far as I can tell. Now, that may be location location location? I mean...take the same exact housing and situated on a non-hydro emitting tarmac out amid the blaze of that great microwave emitter in the sky ... seems intuitively plausible that a station in the rural foliage and/or fields over real Earth ...mm might just throw off a bigger moisture signal.

Thank god

Yeah...nothing screams a cold corrective pattern like a first week of August 'sportin' this kinda look ...

wow -

Yeah ... I was just answering to the 'PWAT' side of the debate... I've read, tho, that incidences of higher SD events has increased... trying to remember where that was - might have been over at Phys.org

OH... heh. Honestly, I'm not sure who wrote what... something caught my eye so I was just trying to elucidate the watered down version - pun always serviceable and deliberate Anyway, the PWAT stuff is measured and empirical ...but, we live in a borrowed times where immediate conveniences allow a peculiar political/mise-science of interpretation arts with information, replete with scandals and adherence to 'plausible' counter explanations that we are merely only yet to pay any consequences for believing... So, good luck explaining that to anyone that needs the PWATs to not be growing everywhere unilaterally... Which is a huge huge constituency in a world whose gears are still unconscionably lubricated with fossil oil.... rant rant rant

mm it actually had that two days ago when it was in the MEX block but yeah.. but we're now-casting... (Today's going to bust too low in the NAM MOS, btw ) To Brian's point ... the heat side of this whole facet is clad and immovable at this point, ...the modulator in exactly where the numbers land is going to come down to tedious theta-e distributions in the column. Not sure that can be squared away prognostically. I mean, you get 71 DP down blip and the temp pops 102 ... IF it blips the other way to 77 .. you're hung up at 94...96 or something but ... it doesn't matter. Both scenarios probably have the exact same therms ...and would feel about the same/risks...

Sun is the thermal source in the oceanic/land/atmospheric coupled thermal engine... We don't precipitate out surplus rains in the "global atmospheric integral" and return to "normal" ? If that's what we're implying here. Doesn't work that way... We only restore at small scales before the vagaries of wind and weather bring in the next dose...and so on. But we are restoring to an elevated(ing) base-line. While the energy contribution from the sun is not an absolute constant, it is a quasi-constant and is perpetual so. The only variance ( meaningful ) is angular/seasonal, but since the GW phenomenon straddles the equator evenly, that cancels out numerically as an offset ... In other words, we are not going to cool down the NH and squeeze out surplus WV if 6 months later we are re-adding more direct total irradiance. So long as there is a thermal source adding the same amount of radiation to a trapping environment, the 'trapping' effect becomes the only mitigating factor. If we alter that trap, we alter the amount trapped. Everything else is Trumptitude So raining out doesn't mean anything if we are still evaporation at the other end... We can rain and rain all we want... doesn't change a dern thing. It just means more rain... well, gee - any stats for that?

greenhouse chemistry rises ... that allows a greater thermal residence --> more evaporation of water... --> among others ... a run away effect, because vapor is 4 and half times more efficient with storing thermal energy than just Terrain air, alone. That's the change leading to the chain of events. Theoretically anyway ...

12z NAM is even hotter.. Jesus.. 33 C at T1 at Logan with a west wind and mean RH < 60 % in the cloud sigmas is... like, 100 2MT period... And, it's even hotter Sunday ...as Brian had alluded to ...owing most likely to the fact that there is a frontal drape approaching the region from the ST L. and that ought to help mix things up a bit with more gradient. 34 C at T1 with open sky west wind Sunday before any help from convection that evening is implying 102 in the 2-meter given those gridded parameters. Oh, I'm sure the MOS will have it's own interpretation - I'm an old schooler with the FOUS data though. I still prefer to hit that tool and compare...

I don't tweet ? ... I don't access other's tweets for that matter... So, taken with a grain' .. I'm not privy to what exactly either has said in that media - though I doubt I'd run out and listen to Bastardi in any medium. Having said that, D'Aleo was touting a cooling/offset solar mantra some 15 years ago when I met him at the Southern New England Storm conference.. Jesus, 2005? Man, that really was almost 15 years ago, huh. I'm never ceased to be amazed when I think of time spans like that ..how a kid born in 2005 is almost ready to start college brochures... Yet to me, that's 5 minutes ago... not 15 f'kum years. Anyway, his schtick at the time was heavy into the Maunder-min esque of the era incoming. He was hammering the 2020s though.. Which is afoot...but, as we know, it has to do with the temporal super-position of the three distinct solar curves. blah blah the 11, 22, and 300 year... They are coming in resonance apparently ... so, I guess the hypothetical thinking there is that must mean there is an extra-double top secret re-enforcement of the negative forcing... making it super negative... thus, super effectively driving the climate system. Which we know it somehow does just by middle earth climate scrolls and shit. That's more than less what I gathered from having had this discussion with him. I haven't kept up with it since. However, I really just see it as competing forcing... I'm not sure that means it wins, or GW wins, either way. But, I am less inclined to think that means we get a free-pass, and those two merely offset ...leaving us homogenized in some temperate bliss, either. I think it means chaos more than anything else...

You think so ...? huh - nah... I think the elevated lows stress the body and makes it harder the next day ...when said toss-and-turner then runs up a ladder with a roofing spade.. Ha. No seriously, I think direct exposure to 100/71 type calefaction morasse, ...that's my bet for what gets the EMS' en route. I have heard of old folks that are 'trapped' sort of circumstantially on an upper floor ...but they are not in 84 air at 2 am when that happens... They are in 90 air that is trapped with them. Incidences of that sort of tragedy increases.. I've never heard of 84 at 2 am sending anyone to an ER though -

WPC was still analyzing the warm boundary as west of SNE/VT/NH... as of 11z ... Looking around at morning obs and all these calm winds and patch-work strata contamination lingering... that's probably still the case. There's really not much impetus left for retarding it with the exception of one all-important circumstance. One that we share with other regions of the planet that abut elevations next to low-lands. In our case, it's the Berks'/Whites and Greens. They create a barrier, 'trapping' stagnant air east of their cordillera, where the elevations slope away toward the ocean. The ocean boundary layer, also creates a quasi barrier for other reasons.. Right now, we trap - That is why this area needs extra double top-secret hard work it seems to get warm boundary to not stop and wait at the western NE doorstop. And also, what seems to at time literally 'drawl'/force air masses to suck back in from the NE. There's a kind of counter-current vector that always in place... In this situation as of this hour, the only thing capable of countermanding that factor is the insolation warming the interior and helping to homogenize the inversion out.. I recall reading AFDs outta Taunton back in the 1990s... someone had correlated a necessitated 22 kts of 850 mb wind from the S in order to overcome the retarding warm front thing... but I think that was more of a index-finger trick-o-the-trade at that NWS office... Anyway, we'll probably heat up... we may have late highs ... 3 to 6 pm west to east. The 00z NAM was hitting 30 C at T1 in the grid... That's usually good for 34 C in the 2MT ...provided the sky is open and the wind is favorable. So, (34+34) = 68; (68-6.8) + 32 is ~ 93 ...and MOS at that time was 92 so... 06z is then came in with 29 C... Given to current circumstances... shaving a degree or two on the F equiv. of 33 C may not be a bad idea? Then I'm impressed... Again, multiple intervals ... 7, sustaining 580+DM thickness! That is something I have never seen from this particular modeling tool ... spanning some 25 or more years of usage... That begins in earnest tonight ...and lasts through Sunday... The longevity of that parametric is the outstanding aspect, not so much the 580 value its self. We seen that hit a few times... increasing in frequency as another "hot" topic I don't wanna get into.. But stringing them together and sustaining intervals is amazing. I mentioned last night and still suspect the same... that's some kind of a "thermodynamic record" ... Everyone's concerned about the highs ...and that's understandable. But I think the insidious nature of this particular heat wave may in fact be the elevated nocturnal lows... Those should be records that are in jeopardy I would think. Particularly tomorrow night... I mean, seeing the NAM with 30 C at Logan at 2 am ... with a light west wind straight out of the core of the urban complex is... Combining Will's suspicion of the Logan calibration issue, notwithstanding, that still going to perform in the actual thermometer house regardless... I mean, we're talking 84 vs 86? Either number in Phoenixian, only ...with DP - not relatively tolerated dry desert air. Holy hell... Those 580 thickness tell why... There is so much water vapor that is already storing huge thermal energy ... there atmosphere like ...simply CAN'T cool down. That's what we're essentially looking at... 582 dm thickness over night. Never seen that. You know ... as some kind of metaphoric perspective ..this is the antithesis of the winter blizzard bomb ? You have some years, like ... 2015, where you're observing repeating cold incursions that roll out 'just in time' for rain... and those are followed by more earth concreting. You get the notion that it's playing with fire... Just can't seem to get the cold and the moisture, concurrently situated in space and time... IF ever so, boom. Well, we all know what happened that year! Here... we've had a wet go of it... Now, we've played with matches and managed to super-impose a pretty spectacular (actually) thermal anomaly within that moist sort of paradigm, and viola! We have to integrate the hydrostatic equation with an ideal gas law that's pigged out on water vapor ...and you end up with ungodly torrid thicknesses... Interesting..