Typhoon Tip

Jerry Boston maxed at 97 so far ... at 16:35 according to Utah's meso source/web

I doubt it ... what are you, 1000 feet right? I mean you could stop at 93.5 while it's 101 at Boston in situ's like this... Worcesters only 87 at the moment so 93 may be stretch for you too -

Not sure what the exact nature of the the CIN/inhibition is right at the moment, but..there are TCU flaring along the Lake Ontario boundary interface up there in NY and it's not a huge leap to envision something ballooning over top any breaches in said cap - I'm bothering to mention it because ... in concert with the other clues of this being a bootleg big heat day ( at best ...) is that the CU around here are tending to vertical depth with crispy edges.. I just wonder if part of the blown ceiling forecast might also be bad convective outlooks...

93 at the former

I'm been seeing that among the teenager gaggles ambling their way around town here, too where they have hooded sweatshirts and jeans, some with hoodies over shorts... Like, huh - It was 94 yesterday and when I saw that. Like take the f sweatshirt off ...

We just tied our high for yesterday ... I'd say we're about 3 behind pace for what is needed for a hundo here in Ayer at 93

Even if we didn't have this cirrus shrouding going on over top ... I'm seeing expanding CU fields undercasting that layer... This was bust from get-go - sorry... I think the "flat ridge" ...and being too close to the westerlies call from earlier in the week as not being very confident for big numbers ... I mean this just shows that you're too exposed to perturbation to expect that delicate outlook to hold...

I dunno dude... this looks like the entire area is holding onto sun for dear life this hour... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined We'll see

Sure ... what's the wind direction though. Not that you think so, per se, but a 2-minute direction incidence doesn't count. The time-dependent deep layer average is required there. I'm not sure 250 degrees is a true enough katabatic wind direction for Massachusetts exit ... Look, they'll probably do it... it's 92 sorry 91 at 10:08 am ... They could backward blind folded and see 100 from here given present sat and stuff... But, this is anomalous. Like I said, Logan may pop a 101 because their face points at Boston's ass like a German Schitzer porn on a west southwest wind. I don't think 100 is realized everywhere -

Provided it stays that clear...

Yeah... DP/theta-e logistics are important in that equation, too - We are so anomalous at 850 mb S of roughly ALB-CON-PWM ...that is sort of compensating on the warm side ...relative to 'filtered sun' as you called it. Then... suppose the air loses some vapor .. there you go. I don't see that happening though? Looking around, this DP thing is homogeneously spread pervasively from the southern Lakes to the TV to NE regions... like a GW text-book preface.

Ha! Well...to be fair...it's not my adage. I heard that on television by a local Met back in the early 1990s. I have heard it elsewhere since, however. There's also another one, "10 after 10" - I think Mike Ekster might have shared that once ..? Anyway, the 90 by 9: one gives an hour to f-around with an errant ill-modeled cloud patch or two, ...to which today qualifies by the way. I'm a bit apprehensive about top dollar numbers being achieved, given current sat trends... Plenty of exhaust to fail evaporation during transport, emanating from the eastern Lakes on -going heat bust flash flooding... The 10 after 10 one gives no wiggle room. If it kisses 90 at 10: am... there is of course less wiggle room than if it kisses 90 by 9: am. Anyway, the more I look at this in now-cast, the more I am convinced this is a non-traditional 'big heat' event synoptically. We have the 850 mb SW heat release/EML and torrid air layers but... we are missing the capping suppression concomitant with big ridging. Obviously this is known for heat monitoring...but the suppression limit cloud so you have unimpeded insolation to add energy to a system that can't mix out. Adding clouds ... impedes the sun...duh. This was warned all week ... by me and probably others, that flat ridging is dicey. So here we are with these cloud debris packets ... meh. Not shocked. And even questionable convective handling ... These are all a function of models simply not evolved to a point where they can correctly assess both convection parameterization and the ridge interface with the westerlies... I think Will mentioned MCS debris ...I know Jerry did... I was mentioning flat ridges from a holistic sort of risk... Heh, if we do it...we do it... but, I'm not confident this set up gets it done. "100" that is... Oh, I'm sure a few home stations will non-officiate ... and Boston will because Logan's got its thermometer jammed up urban-Bostonian anus on days like this with a west wind... but mostly I'm thinking 96/78 on the home stations, and 96/73 at NWS' Fun day of possibilities for nerds with Aspergers to shun society over -

Meh 00z bounced back. The summer equivalent of the infamous winter storm hiccup I guess sumpin like ghat

12 Z had a T1 temperature in the average grid of 34 Celsius in now it's only 31 on Saturday ...it's the same on Sunday though

Yeah I dunno. The thing is doing it at every station like that ... Philadelphia New York and Bos, strikes me as a systemic issue with the run. But it's hard to be confident because the alternative is an absurdly hot temperature ha ha

The 18z NAM whacked about 3°C off the T1 temperatures all up and down the eastern seaboard Philadelphia New York and Boston for tomorrow ... interesting… Not sure how to atone for that. Maybe something in the initialization or something who knows

this has been buzzing around all week as a possibility...yeah That pig up there in Minnesota...holy shit ballz is that thing a monster all ready and it's not even feeding off the diurnal cycling of radiative cloud top cooling yet... Then eastern Michigan is also going crazy...

That's opiodes though -

Why do you do this dude... ? jokes aside, it's like clock work with you - I did not say that. I don't know who did, but I would not condone that, so it is not "mentioning this" because that couches me in with that ... I simply said above normal... to which 13 to 16 C ...that's not 90s anyway.

Giving cred where it's due... Scott may be right about the apex of the summer idea... I first wasn't inclined to thing so... but, I also wasn't staring down the barrel of back to back hundos, either. That's sort of crept up. It was looking like 96 ...and still might ( wondering about those thunder) I mean, this is probably a top tier heat event ... I mean it may not topple 'Hot Saturday' ...per se... But, it certainly could come close and also ....longevity and noctural probably will put this right up there with some more historically distant hall of famers. ... Either way, it's hard to get 100 and it very difficult to do so back to back - even if that fails ...the very possibility looking as clean as it does, is exceptionally rare. So, that said... buy statistic alone, that makes it harder to foresee doing this more than once in the same year. We could get 5 more heat waves between next week and September 15th, and blast this summer into the annuls of the warmest ( which would be comical after a kind of wet slow start ), and still not achieve 100/82/100 across 36 hours... Plus, suppose this exact same circumstantial synopsis sets up on August 19... it's probably 99/78/98 or something to atone for a smidge less solar -

Still a warmer than normal run out there on the Euro (12z) ... altho obviously it won't compare to this weekend - it may even "seem" cool after this abuse next Wednesday. It also suggests not-so-fast on the Monday fropa.. That pressure pattern looks like the front is trended slower, and with a S/W cutting through Michigan 12z that day...we may yet end up still on the warm side of things with bigger convection concerns with that look. The 'real' cool back fropa isn't till early Tuesday. One day near 11 or so C at 850 and we're 13 to 16 C through the run. Meh...Euro is correctable beyond D4 just sayn'

Hey Chris... hate to talk shop after 3pm on a Friday buuut... This is strange ... a little. Wonderin' if y'all had seen or discussed. The models are puking 580 to 584 dm thickness up across the eastern OV/NE regions over the next 36 hours. Having them that high, for that long, is nothing shy of astounding for said regions - that alone is worth of discussion. But, the heights. The hydrostatic heights are only some 4 or 5 dm higher than those thicknesses. That's cutting it kind of close for the hypsometric - hydrostatic relationship. I mean... the former integrate through the latter, means it is pretty much mathematically impossible for them to ever = one another. But, just the same...it's increasingly more difficult to even approach ... This is like getting close 99 % the speed of light no-no .. Kidding there, but doesn't this seem interesting. It seems the heights should 590 min and 594 might be more typical for those hypsometric results

actually there's a watch now out that way... SPC terminates the storm chances pretty quickly at the door stop of western NE though... for whatever reason. interesting

It appears the nose of that theta-e plume out there is helping to ignite some deep convection from SE Mi to western NY ... do we MCS tonight? I'm not sure we'll meet the criteria for that but... there's probably some variance to getting that to happen.

Yeah... the late high is an option today.. Really as little as two hours ago ...WPC was still analyzing a vestigial warm frontal smear trying to move but probably getting damped out ... either way, that wasn't realized then and sort of sets the region up for offsetting the max potential perhaps an hour or so later than normal. I could see some places maxing closer to 4:30 or even 5 down at the shores.