Typhoon Tip

CB on sat over easter NY is going to either race down the Pike and ruin this discussion for heat...or, debris down the Pike and dent this discussion for heat. Not sure which... or if that's the beginning of some big poorly modeled, forecaster missed IR canopy bomb like they got in the mid west/Lakes last night.

Yeah Boston could be fencing some marine influence here ... WSW 95.... SW 93.5 ... NW 97 ... 95 at 17:25 WSW

0 ... I think so Steve. I've been around this part of the counter for 35 years ...and that's hard. It usually hauls up at 0.05 F before it can - heh... But, you know this ... it's silly in a way because Logan only matters to tarmac employees and curb side luggage drop off... It's not really reflecting the city-scape ... Logan obsession over temp is sort of meaningless in a way.

Yes I've been trying to lay-down a hint-framework... I mean much of the convection that's fired across everywhere in the last 24 hours was/had been poorly handled...so, seeing as we are in that same tube of deep tropospheric air movement, all conceits and respects due ... anyone that says it can't is full of shit.

Yeah ...you and I were discussing that two hours back... the wind is 250-ish...Sure, if we can get a consistent katabatic direction -

Yeeeah, I wouldn't blame 'em though - not that you are, per se... Just sayn' ..these point-and-click forecasts webpages ...they can't really drill it down to towns that are adjacent but change elevation by 500 or 600' ... If you got to 95 on a 97 forecast, I call that A- anyway

So... anywho, it conjectural ...but, I define "big" heat as 95 or > ... Not sure how other define, but that's what I've always considered, relative to our climate. Dallas, is 103 > ... Phoenix ... perhaps > 112 .. and on and so on. That said, we may also consider HI's in that ruling... 93/75 is big heat if so...etc...etc.. Having said that, KBOS pinged 97 this hour and has settled ( likely temporarily ) back to 95... KBED is 95, and KOWD is 97 ... I think that is convincingly spread out enough that we can ledger today as a big heat day. The question becomes...how big does it get? Right now, as others have noted ...the cirrus milk has thinned a bit and the blue is more austere ... the sun shines hotly. I have somewhat taller, sharper edge CU in the area offering moments of shade... It does seem that the temps regionally have responded to this cirrus evaporation. It's an interesting challenge ...to make 100 if when a couple hours of the morning were tainted - that's pretty much unheard of... As others have correctly noted, we really need perfect parameters here to get it done...

Jerry Boston maxed at 97 so far ... at 16:35 according to Utah's meso source/web

I doubt it ... what are you, 1000 feet right? I mean you could stop at 93.5 while it's 101 at Boston in situ's like this... Worcesters only 87 at the moment so 93 may be stretch for you too -

Not sure what the exact nature of the the CIN/inhibition is right at the moment, but..there are TCU flaring along the Lake Ontario boundary interface up there in NY and it's not a huge leap to envision something ballooning over top any breaches in said cap - I'm bothering to mention it because ... in concert with the other clues of this being a bootleg big heat day ( at best ...) is that the CU around here are tending to vertical depth with crispy edges.. I just wonder if part of the blown ceiling forecast might also be bad convective outlooks...

93 at the former

I'm been seeing that among the teenager gaggles ambling their way around town here, too where they have hooded sweatshirts and jeans, some with hoodies over shorts... Like, huh - It was 94 yesterday and when I saw that. Like take the f sweatshirt off ...

We just tied our high for yesterday ... I'd say we're about 3 behind pace for what is needed for a hundo here in Ayer at 93

Even if we didn't have this cirrus shrouding going on over top ... I'm seeing expanding CU fields undercasting that layer... This was bust from get-go - sorry... I think the "flat ridge" ...and being too close to the westerlies call from earlier in the week as not being very confident for big numbers ... I mean this just shows that you're too exposed to perturbation to expect that delicate outlook to hold...

I dunno dude... this looks like the entire area is holding onto sun for dear life this hour... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined We'll see

Sure ... what's the wind direction though. Not that you think so, per se, but a 2-minute direction incidence doesn't count. The time-dependent deep layer average is required there. I'm not sure 250 degrees is a true enough katabatic wind direction for Massachusetts exit ... Look, they'll probably do it... it's 92 sorry 91 at 10:08 am ... They could backward blind folded and see 100 from here given present sat and stuff... But, this is anomalous. Like I said, Logan may pop a 101 because their face points at Boston's ass like a German Schitzer porn on a west southwest wind. I don't think 100 is realized everywhere -

Provided it stays that clear...

Yeah... DP/theta-e logistics are important in that equation, too - We are so anomalous at 850 mb S of roughly ALB-CON-PWM ...that is sort of compensating on the warm side ...relative to 'filtered sun' as you called it. Then... suppose the air loses some vapor .. there you go. I don't see that happening though? Looking around, this DP thing is homogeneously spread pervasively from the southern Lakes to the TV to NE regions... like a GW text-book preface.

Ha! Well...to be fair...it's not my adage. I heard that on television by a local Met back in the early 1990s. I have heard it elsewhere since, however. There's also another one, "10 after 10" - I think Mike Ekster might have shared that once ..? Anyway, the 90 by 9: one gives an hour to f-around with an errant ill-modeled cloud patch or two, ...to which today qualifies by the way. I'm a bit apprehensive about top dollar numbers being achieved, given current sat trends... Plenty of exhaust to fail evaporation during transport, emanating from the eastern Lakes on -going heat bust flash flooding... The 10 after 10 one gives no wiggle room. If it kisses 90 at 10: am... there is of course less wiggle room than if it kisses 90 by 9: am. Anyway, the more I look at this in now-cast, the more I am convinced this is a non-traditional 'big heat' event synoptically. We have the 850 mb SW heat release/EML and torrid air layers but... we are missing the capping suppression concomitant with big ridging. Obviously this is known for heat monitoring...but the suppression limit cloud so you have unimpeded insolation to add energy to a system that can't mix out. Adding clouds ... impedes the sun...duh. This was warned all week ... by me and probably others, that flat ridging is dicey. So here we are with these cloud debris packets ... meh. Not shocked. And even questionable convective handling ... These are all a function of models simply not evolved to a point where they can correctly assess both convection parameterization and the ridge interface with the westerlies... I think Will mentioned MCS debris ...I know Jerry did... I was mentioning flat ridges from a holistic sort of risk... Heh, if we do it...we do it... but, I'm not confident this set up gets it done. "100" that is... Oh, I'm sure a few home stations will non-officiate ... and Boston will because Logan's got its thermometer jammed up urban-Bostonian anus on days like this with a west wind... but mostly I'm thinking 96/78 on the home stations, and 96/73 at NWS' Fun day of possibilities for nerds with Aspergers to shun society over -

Meh 00z bounced back. The summer equivalent of the infamous winter storm hiccup I guess sumpin like ghat

12 Z had a T1 temperature in the average grid of 34 Celsius in now it's only 31 on Saturday ...it's the same on Sunday though

Yeah I dunno. The thing is doing it at every station like that ... Philadelphia New York and Bos, strikes me as a systemic issue with the run. But it's hard to be confident because the alternative is an absurdly hot temperature ha ha

The 18z NAM whacked about 3°C off the T1 temperatures all up and down the eastern seaboard Philadelphia New York and Boston for tomorrow ... interesting… Not sure how to atone for that. Maybe something in the initialization or something who knows

this has been buzzing around all week as a possibility...yeah That pig up there in Minnesota...holy shit ballz is that thing a monster all ready and it's not even feeding off the diurnal cycling of radiative cloud top cooling yet... Then eastern Michigan is also going crazy...

That's opiodes though -