Typhoon Tip

It's the same numbers 97/77.

I suspect the collapse triggered the warm right now it's diminishing

This has been getting delayed... As it stands now, inside the day-4 Euro's wheel house and the front is slowed enough that given any sunshine at all Monday morning and we pop back up over 90 real quick S of VT/NH borders down here... With frontal drap also stalled as S/W digs into the Lakes... that day is becoming a bigger player. Tomorrow ( Sunday ) may still rock and roll.. We just have pig SB CAPE so any kind of Lake front/breeze boundary triggers or oreographic assisted hole punches will probably do what is happening now actually...with windy cells ripping down the Mohawk Trail... But, the systemic lift and jet mechanical stuff occurs with EML slipping away and we could have problems on Monday. 18 z MAV (GFS MOS) came in over 80 F south of Rt 2 ...so I suspect the GFS cluster is slowly coming around to belaying fropa, too. Just some modeling observations to consider -

And there goes tomorrows heat ... Thanks for playing - better luck next year -

Scott's trying to antagonize y'all... pretty funny - But, these numbers today ...they are on par with just about anything we've seen out in eastern Iowa this year so far. I mean they may have popped a few 100's around there ...but, by and large, they've been doing the 95-99/75 thing out that way...so, I guess if we want to impugn forecasters for over stating matters... I can kind of offer a defense in that if we did not have 2 hours of missing isolation this morning, .. I mean, I dunno how anyone could have seen that. But.. I don't make the critical rules... so I guess they suck? haha

I heard you then ...I just don't agree. I don't believe that time of day sees more ( statistically ...) than peak heating hours.

LMAO ... hahahaha.... Oh, they got it so rough, huh -

Really! I mean ...we gawk at numbers - that's what we do... 1/4 mi vis that... 24" total this... 100 that... 79 dew this... But, these points are but the screws that hold the scaffold of societies misery together. The real story in the hardship of heat departures comes tonight... There are lower income folk trying to service quaint means with rickety fans rattling away a half revolutions ... sprawled out in a stinking mess on their living area floors because the upstairs is bakin' bread ... Well, maybe not that bad.. .But, the erosion of patience and the toll on bodies is taken when a day like today, fades into a maddening heat sleepless night ... a night of sleep that is needed to recover - it's a vicious feedback loop. Tomorrow is the ER day... watch. I bet incidences of heat exhaustion steps up... Typically it's the second and third days of heat waves -

Welp... as Maud Miller one proclaimed, ...of all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these ... what might have been! If only we could have those two hours of stolen sun back this morning. I feel vindicated in a petty kind of shit-eating way... I was never as gung-ho for 100 as I was agog at the MOS... I said it all week; flat ridges are not really how you get that done around here. Too many chances being that close to the westerlies for some bullshit to just emerge at the wrong timing to mess with a process that for around here, needs to be pretty clean to get it done. We can't be dinking around with convective debris and alto-stratus from no apparent source other than butterflies in our morning insolation and expect to pull off 100 - unless some weird 850 26 C plume somehow were ever to get in here. What is the 850 record for this region? I don't even know if that's possible much above 24 ... In fact, I don't think I've ever seen it verify there - oh the NAM's tried... I think I've only actually ever seen it 22 but it's not honestly a historical value I've ever payed much attention. Anyway, this morning's perfectly wrong timed theft of insolation - as though it had no other purpose but for doing so - COC blocked us. I feel pretty confident that why 21.5 C 850 mb ...was stopped short at 97 at FIT, BOS, altho BDL and OWD... did pop 99 it appears.. Anyway, this really could have been a 100 ... 101 ubiquitous shit show but as it were... just shit Tomorrow we still have a shot ... for morbid entertainment... But I'm not even sure we don't get the same morning thing then, either.

They're 89.6 as of the last read 9 min ago

Not really anything to disagree with .. just refer to the scientific principles... Standard adiabat from 850 mb is about 19 C to get a 1000mb temperature around 34 C ...so, 2-meter standard 1013 sigma combined with turbulent mixing on high insolation afternoons adds 3.5 C so 38 C ... boom, 100. But, down sloped flow and compressional heating adds to that ... so you probably don't really need the 34 just above the deck with a NW over-the-top EML type set up... Today is not that day, however... Today, the 850s were 20 or above ... didn't need it. The trick is getting the BL that tall... When there is are 2 hours of clouds in the morning, that delays the heating of the ground and in turn, retards the diurnal BL expansion. We're getting it now, but the sun is passed apex so the 2-meter isn't benefiting as much. So we're getting more like 2 C out of that bottom bonus -

So you don't think 95 is 'big' ? Seriously - I asked earlier to try and get a consensus but ...not response. To me, 95 is big... 94 is not... But, I am also willing to negotiate for HI's in that discussion. Today, qualified as a big heat day... It's just that it may be in the lower ranking ...so far. BDL is 98 and I could see Logan doing one of those 20 minute WNW perturbations and 99 for 30 seconds around 4:54 or something... I mean we'll see and probably not, but they often do sneak a tickle later than we think. I just saw the 12z Euro and the heat could lingering S of the Pike Monday... The front has slowed down across the last two cycles of that particular model... and even looks suspiciously like it hangs up entirely Monday afternoon and waits for a S/W and ( probably ) a severe day on Tuesday - that's this 12z run.

Be on the look out for 'transparent CB' activity ... On very high heat days, you can sometimes get these partial CIN barrier breaching TCU that are so marginal you can see right through them. Often single turrets -

tru -

Nashua with a 93/77 ... ooph... That's amazing. NWS site with a DP that high. May be why they are 93 when KOWD/KBED/KFIT/KBOS are all 95 to 97/75-ish...

Heh...that looks like "Jaws" matte

too bad... I was kinda hopin' I'm fascinating by heat Meteorology ... I didn't say I wanna live in it! I remember one time ( in band camp...) when I was young... in Michigan. We were thick in it.. We had a derecho around 9pm that took 90/75 air ( still at that hour) and replaced it with 73/73 - type air... with 55 mph tree strainer gusts... That's the the way to correct a day that's taken more than it's share

Boy ... phew... west to east up and down the length of Rt 2 here in N. Mass is just a flamin' corridor of sweaty, stingin' eyes and sawing cicada songs 96 on the average home stations around here and feels every f bit-a legitimate

CB on sat over easter NY is going to either race down the Pike and ruin this discussion for heat...or, debris down the Pike and dent this discussion for heat. Not sure which... or if that's the beginning of some big poorly modeled, forecaster missed IR canopy bomb like they got in the mid west/Lakes last night.

Yeah Boston could be fencing some marine influence here ... WSW 95.... SW 93.5 ... NW 97 ... 95 at 17:25 WSW

0 ... I think so Steve. I've been around this part of the counter for 35 years ...and that's hard. It usually hauls up at 0.05 F before it can - heh... But, you know this ... it's silly in a way because Logan only matters to tarmac employees and curb side luggage drop off... It's not really reflecting the city-scape ... Logan obsession over temp is sort of meaningless in a way.

Yes I've been trying to lay-down a hint-framework... I mean much of the convection that's fired across everywhere in the last 24 hours was/had been poorly handled...so, seeing as we are in that same tube of deep tropospheric air movement, all conceits and respects due ... anyone that says it can't is full of shit.

Yeah ...you and I were discussing that two hours back... the wind is 250-ish...Sure, if we can get a consistent katabatic direction -

Yeeeah, I wouldn't blame 'em though - not that you are, per se... Just sayn' ..these point-and-click forecasts webpages ...they can't really drill it down to towns that are adjacent but change elevation by 500 or 600' ... If you got to 95 on a 97 forecast, I call that A- anyway

So... anywho, it conjectural ...but, I define "big" heat as 95 or > ... Not sure how other define, but that's what I've always considered, relative to our climate. Dallas, is 103 > ... Phoenix ... perhaps > 112 .. and on and so on. That said, we may also consider HI's in that ruling... 93/75 is big heat if so...etc...etc.. Having said that, KBOS pinged 97 this hour and has settled ( likely temporarily ) back to 95... KBED is 95, and KOWD is 97 ... I think that is convincingly spread out enough that we can ledger today as a big heat day. The question becomes...how big does it get? Right now, as others have noted ...the cirrus milk has thinned a bit and the blue is more austere ... the sun shines hotly. I have somewhat taller, sharper edge CU in the area offering moments of shade... It does seem that the temps regionally have responded to this cirrus evaporation. It's an interesting challenge ...to make 100 if when a couple hours of the morning were tainted - that's pretty much unheard of... As others have correctly noted, we really need perfect parameters here to get it done...