Typhoon Tip

I was just looking at Bedford in Norwood and I just don't see Boss in as being "diagnosed" at this time? There may have been a notable or suspicious series of incidences in the past where that site looked erroneous - I don't believe in the current circumstance it's going to reveal itselfI don't believe in the current circumstance it's going to reveal itself

well double Asterix or not… Boston is 90/72 somewhere between 830 and 845 this morning It may be a situation where circumstantially an error there is being masked by favorable conditions

Wow...that is impressive!

Hm. The cloud observation in the satellite is a different beast than yesterday to my perception. Yesterday had a lot of mid and upper level categorical ceiling types mashed up ... Whereas this appears to be caused by moving elevated DP air ...back into the slight DP loss we observed regionally overnight... It's also up and over elevations out west. It's currently 77 DP NW of NYC and I believe with that SW wind moving that initially back over the Berks we are seeing a bit of up slope - it may end up more broken/partly once it gets east of middle zones. But also, doesn't appear to be back built nearly as pervasive after 1/2 hour tops in a given location. Yesterday ...stole 2 to 3 hours of heating away - and we still made 97 at the typicals. Could be wrong... But watching the morphology of that fast coalescence/decay behavior ..that's typical of transient orographic effect ... it may not 'block' the insolation in the same way.

I realize y'all have your history with his concern and that locale... I don't mean to diminish any of it - But, they were on a west wind out of the largest urban region NE of NYC ... after a deeply heat saturated barotropic, high sun day. Those two factors guarantee that particular site would be the warmest overnight given the environment, initial conditions and the fact that those were unchanging overnight. Sorry - they are/were definitely destined to be substantially warmer than ORH. Now, does that mean 10 ? don't know... However, I have seen many times that site be 10 over ORH going back to the 1980s when I first moved to this region of the country and invariably that has/will occurr every year, once in a while... since. Now, none of that is intended to preclude the possibility ( or truth ..) that Logan's instrumentation needs a tech visit... It probably does. I probably does. But, given this particular recent 24 hours of leading and carry through factors? Mm... not blown away by y'alls concerns. KBED min was 80 KOWD min was 81 ... call the quantum PHD candidates already ...

Lol https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/20/us/police-department-heat-wave-stop-crime-trnd/index.html

Is that a derecho getting going over southern Ontario ?

It's the same numbers 97/77.

I suspect the collapse triggered the warm right now it's diminishing

This has been getting delayed... As it stands now, inside the day-4 Euro's wheel house and the front is slowed enough that given any sunshine at all Monday morning and we pop back up over 90 real quick S of VT/NH borders down here... With frontal drap also stalled as S/W digs into the Lakes... that day is becoming a bigger player. Tomorrow ( Sunday ) may still rock and roll.. We just have pig SB CAPE so any kind of Lake front/breeze boundary triggers or oreographic assisted hole punches will probably do what is happening now actually...with windy cells ripping down the Mohawk Trail... But, the systemic lift and jet mechanical stuff occurs with EML slipping away and we could have problems on Monday. 18 z MAV (GFS MOS) came in over 80 F south of Rt 2 ...so I suspect the GFS cluster is slowly coming around to belaying fropa, too. Just some modeling observations to consider -

And there goes tomorrows heat ... Thanks for playing - better luck next year -

Scott's trying to antagonize y'all... pretty funny - But, these numbers today ...they are on par with just about anything we've seen out in eastern Iowa this year so far. I mean they may have popped a few 100's around there ...but, by and large, they've been doing the 95-99/75 thing out that way...so, I guess if we want to impugn forecasters for over stating matters... I can kind of offer a defense in that if we did not have 2 hours of missing isolation this morning, .. I mean, I dunno how anyone could have seen that. But.. I don't make the critical rules... so I guess they suck? haha

I heard you then ...I just don't agree. I don't believe that time of day sees more ( statistically ...) than peak heating hours.

LMAO ... hahahaha.... Oh, they got it so rough, huh -

Really! I mean ...we gawk at numbers - that's what we do... 1/4 mi vis that... 24" total this... 100 that... 79 dew this... But, these points are but the screws that hold the scaffold of societies misery together. The real story in the hardship of heat departures comes tonight... There are lower income folk trying to service quaint means with rickety fans rattling away a half revolutions ... sprawled out in a stinking mess on their living area floors because the upstairs is bakin' bread ... Well, maybe not that bad.. .But, the erosion of patience and the toll on bodies is taken when a day like today, fades into a maddening heat sleepless night ... a night of sleep that is needed to recover - it's a vicious feedback loop. Tomorrow is the ER day... watch. I bet incidences of heat exhaustion steps up... Typically it's the second and third days of heat waves -

Welp... as Maud Miller one proclaimed, ...of all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these ... what might have been! If only we could have those two hours of stolen sun back this morning. I feel vindicated in a petty kind of shit-eating way... I was never as gung-ho for 100 as I was agog at the MOS... I said it all week; flat ridges are not really how you get that done around here. Too many chances being that close to the westerlies for some bullshit to just emerge at the wrong timing to mess with a process that for around here, needs to be pretty clean to get it done. We can't be dinking around with convective debris and alto-stratus from no apparent source other than butterflies in our morning insolation and expect to pull off 100 - unless some weird 850 26 C plume somehow were ever to get in here. What is the 850 record for this region? I don't even know if that's possible much above 24 ... In fact, I don't think I've ever seen it verify there - oh the NAM's tried... I think I've only actually ever seen it 22 but it's not honestly a historical value I've ever payed much attention. Anyway, this morning's perfectly wrong timed theft of insolation - as though it had no other purpose but for doing so - COC blocked us. I feel pretty confident that why 21.5 C 850 mb ...was stopped short at 97 at FIT, BOS, altho BDL and OWD... did pop 99 it appears.. Anyway, this really could have been a 100 ... 101 ubiquitous shit show but as it were... just shit Tomorrow we still have a shot ... for morbid entertainment... But I'm not even sure we don't get the same morning thing then, either.

They're 89.6 as of the last read 9 min ago

Not really anything to disagree with .. just refer to the scientific principles... Standard adiabat from 850 mb is about 19 C to get a 1000mb temperature around 34 C ...so, 2-meter standard 1013 sigma combined with turbulent mixing on high insolation afternoons adds 3.5 C so 38 C ... boom, 100. But, down sloped flow and compressional heating adds to that ... so you probably don't really need the 34 just above the deck with a NW over-the-top EML type set up... Today is not that day, however... Today, the 850s were 20 or above ... didn't need it. The trick is getting the BL that tall... When there is are 2 hours of clouds in the morning, that delays the heating of the ground and in turn, retards the diurnal BL expansion. We're getting it now, but the sun is passed apex so the 2-meter isn't benefiting as much. So we're getting more like 2 C out of that bottom bonus -

So you don't think 95 is 'big' ? Seriously - I asked earlier to try and get a consensus but ...not response. To me, 95 is big... 94 is not... But, I am also willing to negotiate for HI's in that discussion. Today, qualified as a big heat day... It's just that it may be in the lower ranking ...so far. BDL is 98 and I could see Logan doing one of those 20 minute WNW perturbations and 99 for 30 seconds around 4:54 or something... I mean we'll see and probably not, but they often do sneak a tickle later than we think. I just saw the 12z Euro and the heat could lingering S of the Pike Monday... The front has slowed down across the last two cycles of that particular model... and even looks suspiciously like it hangs up entirely Monday afternoon and waits for a S/W and ( probably ) a severe day on Tuesday - that's this 12z run.

Be on the look out for 'transparent CB' activity ... On very high heat days, you can sometimes get these partial CIN barrier breaching TCU that are so marginal you can see right through them. Often single turrets -

tru -

Nashua with a 93/77 ... ooph... That's amazing. NWS site with a DP that high. May be why they are 93 when KOWD/KBED/KFIT/KBOS are all 95 to 97/75-ish...

Heh...that looks like "Jaws" matte

too bad... I was kinda hopin' I'm fascinating by heat Meteorology ... I didn't say I wanna live in it! I remember one time ( in band camp...) when I was young... in Michigan. We were thick in it.. We had a derecho around 9pm that took 90/75 air ( still at that hour) and replaced it with 73/73 - type air... with 55 mph tree strainer gusts... That's the the way to correct a day that's taken more than it's share

Boy ... phew... west to east up and down the length of Rt 2 here in N. Mass is just a flamin' corridor of sweaty, stingin' eyes and sawing cicada songs 96 on the average home stations around here and feels every f bit-a legitimate