Typhoon Tip

There is a west-east extending line near Bri's latitude on sat/vis ...I assume that's CU ... WPC is analyzing the boundary as ALB-midriff Maine/PWM.. I suspect it's moving slowly though given to the parallel nature of the deep layer flow...

not sure what is mean with "or" ... are you rounding - in any case, Utah metro west source has 96.8 at Boston at 13:30 for what it's worth... and rounding or not, that's above yesterday for that location at the same time -

I think the loss of DP and the better mixing are, together, putting back temp - ... I'm also curious about something else... More scientific, but I'm not sure - The surface obs seem to average 220 to 260 with the winds... But the CU field is more like 280 or even 290... The latter is a subtle d-slope direction for most, but the former,... is not. Does that mean the we do not benefit from d-slope compression... I'm not sure it doesn't. Because I can reason that "at the 900 mb sigma level" there is compression from over top... Then, indirectly, we mix that with the boundary layer tumble -

Boston is 95/71.6 ... Yesterday at the exact same read moment it was 95/73.4

95

Adding to Weatherwiz's deeply insightful, lucid angle on convection... I suspect the sweep out of some 3 or 5 degrees of DP that took place a bit over an hour ago, may be taking the CAPE down. There's still a convective temperature, but it's probably higher now that we have taken some dynamics out. The EML should be finally moving off this evening ...and I am noticing the DPs are trying to make a comeback - folks including SPC didn't see last night wind/severe near sunset down the Mohawk trail either so there's hope.

Yeah expanding that analysis ...that band of clouds a coupe hours ago was clearly some sort of old outflow boundary that was in the process of normalizing out but hadn't yet completely... If you look the broader scope you can see how it arced/sloped back WSW all the way through PA/OH... and on the western end, is even now sparking weakly committed early glaciators... It's helped sweep out about 2-5 off the DP... not sure if the temp is also... right now I'm inclined to say no, because other than the retarding effectiveness of that cloud interlude its self... we seem to be bounced back 91 to 94 across the area. I don't think hundo is in the cards...but...we should still inch into that 95-98 range...

Wouldn't think so ... but, we do have a more active W wind and the CU trajectory isn't bad for some d-slope component in that well mixed environment - might add a tick or two back. 93+ at BOS last read... DP popped back to 72. 12:20 pm ...mm... I'd say if that site jumps another 3 over the next hour their chances improve from nill to slim -

Cannot stress enough ... this is only an issue in this particular social-media cluster of inconsolables ...relative to the debate its self? I think both sides are right - I do... There is room to complain about a media sensationalism to pounce on the big scary " 100 " number in forecasts, ... when the MOS set up a range between 96 and 100... The fact of the matter is, 100 was not beyond the possibility... The media engine revved up the 100 side of that... Don't do that... Perhaps discuss that as a possibility, but also be clear that failing to do so still prone the region to dangerous heat - which verified! On the other side, Seriously... there is no debate in the "rational consensus of society" - if you will... We are quibbling over 2 f'n degrees man, wrt to this hundo thing. In fact, I don't think anyone out there at a regular water cooler, or making small talk in line at the grocery store even is aware it failed to hundo yesterday given what they endured just trying to crawl from their car to the front entrance. I guess it depends upon which arena one chooses to engage in the discussion. If it's in here... we're sort of about it... If we're out there, this is a feather in the cap for the forecast community at large. There are those that don't want ( probably ) to accept that difference of arena ... but if so, tsk tsk... don't conflate those two. It's good though..that there is that attention to detail because hopefully this in some how way shape or form will parlay into keeping the system on it's toes -

Studying the hi res vis loop ... This cloud shield strikes me as a remnant outflow arc ... There's even subtle signs of g-wave striations paralleling the front edge as it neared(s) the south coast. I was thinking earlier that it was a richer DPs pooled NW of NYC in NE Pa/SE Ny that were trying to return flow over the Berks, earlier, but after studying this imagery I'm wondering - There's been a lot of convection and rain cooled pooling/outflow phenomenon over the Lakes and it's not impossible that some vaguely differentiable air mass is has a vestigial mass signature in the flow there. hm. It would be subtle... BOS winds decide to gust to 22 kts in a pressure pattern that otherwise has been pretty static and unchanging, and has not been able to do that prior...

Well ...you said it ( rightfully imho - ) in your previous post.. It's relative to the group being asked. It's only an error in here, where we sweat out 32.1 in an icing scenario... Or need an extra 10 J of SB CAPE to get a funnel to touch the Earth. ...or in this case, (probably) feel jilted by a situation that will fail actual 100 on an officiate thermometer and having to settle for "pedestrian" 96/77 .... ( the nerve! ) No, in 99%dom concensia ... this is a perfectly forecast weekend. 700 people in Boston were medical because of the heat yesterday - the NWS did their job. Guys... heads out of weeds.. Don't get too caught up in this stuff -

Like a said last hour... I think there is an overt attention to detail and persnickety requirements going on in here. Lighten up guys (gals)

It was a good call! I was there with you ... I believe I opined at tl;dr length on a couple different occurrence, with not so veiled references to GW and the elevation of theta-e all over the planet phenomenon. ... I mean, NCEP has been noting in their "state of the climate" monthly addresses, that nocturnal lows have been elevated all over the world. That's theta-e. Sorry, across the diurnal cycle - you tell me ...what is the greatest guiding factor. If some nimrod says clouds... clouds are moisture! ... It's all part of the same integration Blah blah... My point is, I think elevating DPs is something that might just be part of the paradigm shift everyone is either busy discrediting, or cluelessly standing around waiting to happen. Be that as it may or may not be, add water limits temperature. PV = NRT for the back of breakfast cereal boxes...

Yeah... I don't recall/know about the exact physical/environmental conditions of that faithful event last March ... I was just speaking in general. Again, I'm not out to impugn Will and Scott's ( less than clear ) aggravation about Logan's instrumentation ... ( I mean ...how do they really feel ) I wanna make it clear... in this situation from yesterday relaying into this morning I don't believe is a very good choice to example that error. I believe it really was 82 in Boston given the surrounding ob consistency, and also accounting for particular initial factors. Big urban exhausting of barotropic heat saturated air mass after high sun ... You aren't winning that debate. In the winter? Yeah...f -yeah man! I bet an error at that site could be whopper noticeable. In fact, ... I have seen some instrumentation tend to manifest error more at one end of the dial - when we get into fair and impartial error accounting ... there's that peregrination to consider, too. I guess it would just be easier to send some routine calibration tech to the site - but that's sci-fi policy. I don't know what NWS/NCEP does to maintain their sites.. or what determines when and how they are tested.

Lol... beep beep beep ... back up a dump truck, tip -her up and dump a full load of hockey rink Zamboni shave in a 140 heat... I bet it accumulates - at least for a little while.

Oh ...o-kay.. Yeah, we should know better... Guess we're out of our form and rusty to winter concepts.. I was just saying to Jer' there .... I've seen it snow prolific accumulations in April at 34 F .... It's all fall rates - ...So long as the fall, exceeds the rate of melt... you're in the plus.

Well... keep in mind... Thunderstorms exhausted in that region during the middle evening hour there... That could certainly have given their temp falls a little extra momentum - just a supposition. I'm detecting a weird kind of needlely persnickety critiquing going on in this social media this morning - y'all need to lighten up Suns back out here... Sat shows it will be everywhere. May take a bit longer south. And though this little swath of heat toxin probably 86'ed ( pun intended ) the hundo crowd's hopes and aspirations... I for one am glad. I think a HI of 105 is plenty -

right ...so, why does it matter "enough" to call this a bad forecast then? A young, ex-offensive NFL lineman died in Arkansas two days from heat stroke after working in 92/76 type air ... cooler than yesterday, in this part of the country. Ha ha... I guess when we say "bad forecast" in this context, we just mean relative to our crushingly tedious, borderline Asperger obsessive requirements... LOL

Y'all are not totally right about that -

It's frustrating though ... no doubt. For the 100 trophy seekers This could not have been any more quintessentially perfectly wrongly timed... and, just to make sure it succeeds in b-f'ing your specific interesting ...it sprinkles actual water into the fire with this 1.5 hour poison. It's easy to see why the ancients conjured religion -

Just being devil's advocate but ... the bold statement doesn't really prove anything... We can doubt ... and to some amount, yeah...there's simultaneous melting? But, I have seen it snow 6" at 34 F in early April - It's a matter of fall rates.

I said last night ... don't be surprised if we go through an interval of morning clouds again... Glad everyone suspected it's arrival and passage But, it's clearing already... I can see blue west of me and satellite shows rocketing cloud motion...this'll likely acquiesce to more sun over the next hour.

Sort of ... disagree - It was called all week that this heat had problems .... I think what happens is what typically happens with J.Q. Public... folks hear what they want to, then, impugn the source for their own interpretation. That doesn't mean you per se... The on-camera mets also did not consider certain issues this whole thing had... They interpreted the MOS and synoptics, in total, the best they could.. Because if we did not get these cloud shrapnel ... That's the pulpit - folks don't come in here and necessarily read about caveats from one of these lesser known nooks and crannies of the web.

The horse flies are particularly big, gnarly and relentlessly helicoptering this year. I cycle as one of my work-out rotations... Have for years. I've come to realize ...it is possible to pick up a heavier mass biting insect in the middle of your back. The way it works is... you produce micro 'rotors' of wind around the sides of you back - similar to a semi-truck going down the highway. On cold days with snow blowing off the top of the trailer ...you can trace this wind current that curls around the aft of the vehicle? That same phenomenon allows a biting bug the size of a horse fly to slip into that relative calm in the middle of one's back in there and end up biting you right through your f-n shirt while hummin' along at 20 mph down one of the canopied woodland bike trails. Which happened to me recently ... They leave welts that are like three times bigger that skeeters - and they don't itch. There's not oddly satisfying sensation of scratching those suckers..

"aghast" ...shouldn't be... "Expectant," ? perhaps - I may be speaking to the straw-man in the room but ... again again again... This was never going to be a "clean" heat departure. Prone to flies being in the ointment. The ridge was too flat. We are almost directly underneath the westerlies - you know...? That pesky thing called the jet stream, that transmits 'flies' ? When one is in the firing line... heh - As far as this cloud interval... I suggest folks study the myriad of different satellite resources that abound the web and see what's up -