Typhoon Tip

It's a dystopian nerve people want tapped. For some reason its entertainment trips a kind euphoria circuit ...? so much so that discussing it as a possibility ... from winter storms to heat waves and all end of the world shock and awes in between, to then not get it - it's like interrupting high and the person gets cranky. 96/75 just isn't as resonating as 103/..

Low t is interesting… Provided Eric Fisher is not full of it- I mentioned this possibility myself earlier in the week that the overnight lows were the biggest threat for records… It was actually the most entertaining part of this heat wave for me ...was seeing if that would be the case. And it's fitting with the global elevated nocturnal low crisis going on all over the planet heh.

94L ...already here

Why is that officiated when Boston could be 99 at 6:15 - not saying they will of course... but that site out there notoriously picks up city heat late

Nope... cool strata rains by mid afternoon most of CT/RI and Mass along and S of the Pike ...with a few elevated convective cells offering occasional orange lightning with slow thunder/moderate down pours ... Have fun

Well ... what are we talking about though ... temperature, or level of discomfort - those are two different metrics. Not that anyone disputed - just sayn'... I mean, we're getting up into the high 90s S of Rt 2 ...which shouldn't be any less an achievement relative to climate and temperature than yesterday for most locations.. We run risk of diminishing that significance if we conflate with it being easier toleration is all -

was kidding... like, 98-99 = -1

-1 ? wow.... Yeeeah, I gotta think that instrumentation dude. That's a pretty big outlier there -

well...I had the 3 pm in mind... but... it has been sort of stuck at that 96.8 guesswork

I got a buddy who lives at a similar altitude as you down in Auburn ... he did not 90 yesterday, despite ORH doing so at 1,000.. I think that's a reasonable micro-comparison for how thermometer housing/setting can effect readings... ORH popped a 90, but they are at the AP. Not sure exactly how that site's instrumentation is oriented, but my buddy's system is in a rural neighborhood setting ... with 70' oaks on one side of the lawn... and also, res. type holding ponds situated around town. Him being held to 87 intuitively fits that comparison -

I bet the next ob Boston puts up a 99

Damn! ... yeah, I know ... but man wouldn't that f just be the most awesomest thing - some parallel universe gets to experience that

And how about the NAM ... ha... It's transitioning this heat event into a tortured overrunning, to the tune of almost 2" of regional QPF ... If that were late January what a sweet ice-storm that would be.

Actually ... I agree in so far that the 'cool down' more likely is a break in an otherwise warm pattern. We may not return to best yesterday and today's upper 90s ... but, already the MEX is flagging a low grade heat wave for BDL and nearly so for FIT/ASH ...this Thur-Sat... Which given climate weighting at those ranges, that backs us into the notion there's must be an impressive enough warm signal lurking out there. Which...this is also evidenced in the "groove" ( if you will ) of the operational's song and dance. You can just kinda sorta tell the ridge once to expand again ... its just not quite doing so... Either way, the 00z Euro was more like stagnated 'dog day' looking with 15C 850s D6-D10 in an almost COL look... I don't think that'll end up being that way, but that sets the table for the pattern to go either way ( to be fair )...

Well than hopefully BDL gets corrected to 99.44 then -

**

Unnnnfortunately ... "WE" didn't do shit... YOU don't get in due to your lack of faith and bad attitude earlier. For everyone else... Yeah! woo- hooo ... we did it without Kevin. Better luck next time....

Okay... so rounding - I'm curious how Utah's source decides that -

There is a west-east extending line near Bri's latitude on sat/vis ...I assume that's CU ... WPC is analyzing the boundary as ALB-midriff Maine/PWM.. I suspect it's moving slowly though given to the parallel nature of the deep layer flow...

not sure what is mean with "or" ... are you rounding - in any case, Utah metro west source has 96.8 at Boston at 13:30 for what it's worth... and rounding or not, that's above yesterday for that location at the same time -

I think the loss of DP and the better mixing are, together, putting back temp - ... I'm also curious about something else... More scientific, but I'm not sure - The surface obs seem to average 220 to 260 with the winds... But the CU field is more like 280 or even 290... The latter is a subtle d-slope direction for most, but the former,... is not. Does that mean the we do not benefit from d-slope compression... I'm not sure it doesn't. Because I can reason that "at the 900 mb sigma level" there is compression from over top... Then, indirectly, we mix that with the boundary layer tumble -

Boston is 95/71.6 ... Yesterday at the exact same read moment it was 95/73.4

95

Adding to Weatherwiz's deeply insightful, lucid angle on convection... I suspect the sweep out of some 3 or 5 degrees of DP that took place a bit over an hour ago, may be taking the CAPE down. There's still a convective temperature, but it's probably higher now that we have taken some dynamics out. The EML should be finally moving off this evening ...and I am noticing the DPs are trying to make a comeback - folks including SPC didn't see last night wind/severe near sunset down the Mohawk trail either so there's hope.

Yeah expanding that analysis ...that band of clouds a coupe hours ago was clearly some sort of old outflow boundary that was in the process of normalizing out but hadn't yet completely... If you look the broader scope you can see how it arced/sloped back WSW all the way through PA/OH... and on the western end, is even now sparking weakly committed early glaciators... It's helped sweep out about 2-5 off the DP... not sure if the temp is also... right now I'm inclined to say no, because other than the retarding effectiveness of that cloud interlude its self... we seem to be bounced back 91 to 94 across the area. I don't think hundo is in the cards...but...we should still inch into that 95-98 range...