Typhoon Tip

Yeah I dunno - I wouldn't bother to impugn them like just another member of the vitriolic hoi -polloi... and remove any doubt my station in society is just another douchy honk - I'm not sure he's even a "bad" Met to be honest. I never bothered to verify his snow totals/forecasts and/or temp outlooks. It's just something I noticed; he was consummately some amount warmer in temps, and lower in snow, relative to almost every situation I ever happened to see him in the years he worked WHDH. That sounds like I'm impugning him? But he may have been right - I dunno.

shallow CU field in N NJ is moving NNW ...that's not indicative of being on the polarward side of a deep new fresh summer polar air mass... No, this front came in shallow and is attempting to bow back ... Whether it does or not, as far N as the Mass Pike ...I do think the sun can assist that... But, there's patch work of clouds so it needs work.

I would espouse that entire era of on-camera Mets seemed more winter-centric. I know Harvey Leonard first hand is top heavy on winter storms and snow in particular, though folks probably would not know that as he's remarkably polished in his impartiality with the public. You're right about Mark "Frozenballs" ... "Froze-then-thawed" ..."Frozen Skull" ...I heard a lot of those. Dick Albert rest his soul ...I think he was partial to convection but did really like blizzards fondly. And, who could forget Bruce Schwoegler ... man, that dude was basically like a mash up between Kevin and an actual Meteorology degree. The man would like ... engineer storm threats out of meaningless subtropical cirrus streaks running off the Carolina coast ... I remember this once... "I don't think the models are picking this up..." 'Course to be fair, that was back in the mid '80's when models really were capable of missing a whole actual tropospheric object like an STJ ...maybe. There was one system in the early 1990s where he was honkin' 40 to 60 mph winds and 24" of snow and we got 1-3" and cobalt blue sunny day the next day and that seemed to start blinking his retirement light. Yeah...the 1976 to 2000 years were the pinnacle on-camera snow Met decades... I think as recently as 2006 I saw something I didn't think I'd ever witness ... A Boston area, major network affiliate on-camera Meteorologist with a warm bias. Channel 7. Steve Bouchard I think was his name... Last I heard Mark ended up somewhere up around Portland Maine.

Yeah ..there's more interesting aspects going on out ( or "up" ) there actually .. The hi res vis imagery ...really casts the allusion that the region is still bathed in warm sector S of the Pike and perhaps even lifting N... Meanwhile, there is a region of clearing now in these areas...at least partial sun. The fropa momentum from overnight is feeble. The calm nature of the wind around the region this morning suggests so. The air mass behind the boundary over said region is not appreciably deep... I am wondering if the sun doesn't mix out this edge work and sort of flop the region back into a SW/ quasi barotropic air mass again. There is a S/W over the Lakes and that's helping to slow the front and may add to this thinking.. This was suggested by the Euro actually a couple days ago. I remember mentioning this sort of idea in Wiz's thread... that Monday was getting interesting. Boo-ya for the Euro! what's new... We'll see... But, if the air mass does partially mix backward we could be left with more conditional instability ... imagining some vestigial SR helicity.

I have my doubts this week is 'coc' in nature for that long... In fact, when the sun returns post this agonizingly slow transition over the next 36 or so hours... It won't really meet the definition of 74/52 ..or whatever is the environmental controls standard. (From what I'm observing in the charts + climate + experience )/ 3 = a pop back to low 80s with DPs in the upper 50s as your nadir... Quasi coc at best. And we go up from there. Just the way I see it. Calling that 'coc' is bit of an over-sell. But I get it ... I'm being perhaps too literal/rigid with that. Y'all just mean 'better than this weekend' - to that...of course! It's not gonna be 96/75 for the foreseeable future... And in fairness to the softer use of the chamber stuff ... I even felt at 93/69 last night a vastly improved comfort driving down 495 and 75 mph with the windows down. It was already comparative... And that's the key.. Balancing acclimation. After this weekend, 84/60 may seem cocky but that's technically the threshold of warm and humid. I still kind of see Thur + as summer dog day characterized ... More like stagnantly hold up in the mid 80s/creeping DPs starting at 58 and going to the mid 60s over the weekend. Yup...that may seem like coc compared to Saturday at 3:47 pm

And unfortunately ... all the information that's been presented here, regarding instrumentation ... is conjectural until proven empirically ... Snark and sarcasm..., those do not satisfy the "empirical" side of any contention or debate. There may in fact be a problem with Boston... but in the spirit of conjecture: the heat over the weekend and the behavior of readings failed to exemplify from what I observed. That station did not deviate appreciably enough from the KBED - KOWD arc - in fact, it didn't deviate at all. The overnight low of 83 is perfectly explained given wind trajectory and static synoptic parameters.

I will say ... if a Euro general circulation synopsis pans out the DPs are likely amass over top guidance by a little more every day

It's a dystopian nerve people want tapped. For some reason its entertainment trips a kind euphoria circuit ...? so much so that discussing it as a possibility ... from winter storms to heat waves and all end of the world shock and awes in between, to then not get it - it's like interrupting high and the person gets cranky. 96/75 just isn't as resonating as 103/..

Low t is interesting… Provided Eric Fisher is not full of it- I mentioned this possibility myself earlier in the week that the overnight lows were the biggest threat for records… It was actually the most entertaining part of this heat wave for me ...was seeing if that would be the case. And it's fitting with the global elevated nocturnal low crisis going on all over the planet heh.

94L ...already here

Why is that officiated when Boston could be 99 at 6:15 - not saying they will of course... but that site out there notoriously picks up city heat late

Nope... cool strata rains by mid afternoon most of CT/RI and Mass along and S of the Pike ...with a few elevated convective cells offering occasional orange lightning with slow thunder/moderate down pours ... Have fun

Well ... what are we talking about though ... temperature, or level of discomfort - those are two different metrics. Not that anyone disputed - just sayn'... I mean, we're getting up into the high 90s S of Rt 2 ...which shouldn't be any less an achievement relative to climate and temperature than yesterday for most locations.. We run risk of diminishing that significance if we conflate with it being easier toleration is all -

was kidding... like, 98-99 = -1

-1 ? wow.... Yeeeah, I gotta think that instrumentation dude. That's a pretty big outlier there -

well...I had the 3 pm in mind... but... it has been sort of stuck at that 96.8 guesswork

I got a buddy who lives at a similar altitude as you down in Auburn ... he did not 90 yesterday, despite ORH doing so at 1,000.. I think that's a reasonable micro-comparison for how thermometer housing/setting can effect readings... ORH popped a 90, but they are at the AP. Not sure exactly how that site's instrumentation is oriented, but my buddy's system is in a rural neighborhood setting ... with 70' oaks on one side of the lawn... and also, res. type holding ponds situated around town. Him being held to 87 intuitively fits that comparison -

I bet the next ob Boston puts up a 99

Damn! ... yeah, I know ... but man wouldn't that f just be the most awesomest thing - some parallel universe gets to experience that

And how about the NAM ... ha... It's transitioning this heat event into a tortured overrunning, to the tune of almost 2" of regional QPF ... If that were late January what a sweet ice-storm that would be.

Actually ... I agree in so far that the 'cool down' more likely is a break in an otherwise warm pattern. We may not return to best yesterday and today's upper 90s ... but, already the MEX is flagging a low grade heat wave for BDL and nearly so for FIT/ASH ...this Thur-Sat... Which given climate weighting at those ranges, that backs us into the notion there's must be an impressive enough warm signal lurking out there. Which...this is also evidenced in the "groove" ( if you will ) of the operational's song and dance. You can just kinda sorta tell the ridge once to expand again ... its just not quite doing so... Either way, the 00z Euro was more like stagnated 'dog day' looking with 15C 850s D6-D10 in an almost COL look... I don't think that'll end up being that way, but that sets the table for the pattern to go either way ( to be fair )...

Well than hopefully BDL gets corrected to 99.44 then -

**

Unnnnfortunately ... "WE" didn't do shit... YOU don't get in due to your lack of faith and bad attitude earlier. For everyone else... Yeah! woo- hooo ... we did it without Kevin. Better luck next time....

Okay... so rounding - I'm curious how Utah's source decides that -