Typhoon Tip

I realize you were not directing this rhetoric toward me... I believe the Siberian/northern Asia cold plume is more likely a 'synergistic' effect ... an emergent property of changing the global circulation engine that is part of the warming world. In other words, cool the planet back down the 5F it's gained in the last 30 or whatever years it took to gather that differential... and Siberia would be just cold as opposed to demonstratively offsetting... If I had to put my money on it...the N-NE Pacific semi-perennial vortex ( also the Icelandic lows) have been deeper and more powerful and the terminating warm advection at higher latitudes is beefing up the bloacking in key geographic areas that subsequently favor dumping ... or rather defaulting cold heights in Siberia/N Asia. I would have to think that it is perhaps multi-century ephemeral ? Sounds like an oxymoron but we gotta consider...when compared to geological million year time spans, 100 years is almost immediate - so in that context it is transient. As the polar regions continue to warm at a disproportionately faster rate ...eventually the ambient gradients will begin to weaken - I mean .. talking ages and ages into the future, barring something really weird... When that happens, the semi-permanent vortexes begin to break down and that stops pumping heights into ridging and the negative nodes concomitantly weaken... But that's like 500 years out there... The fact of the matter is... ( and no one asked for this sentence I'm about to say..) long before getting there, the global ecology and environment will no longer be sustainable to 7.5 billion non-cooperating assholes running around trying to procure for themselves... But I digress -

Yeah in all honestly ... this is just something I have noticed... Some 2/3rds of the months since 1999 ...the global graphical heat source and sink annotations from various scientific sourcing (NCEP ...NASA and University research...etc..) have favored SE Can/NE U.S. with "blue" months... 2/3rds is not every time. And, 33% is still a big number... When it's red here...it's red. So it's probably a subtler tendency/distinction, and probably not really statistically significant compared to the consequences going on all over the place, either, but it's something that I have noticed where we blue more than red. But, blue in that context is till above normal..That's why I was careful to point out, "relative min" I mean ...it's above normal everywhere - what are we talking about ... decimal values of variance where one region's a tenth warmer/cooler than the mean...? Build a nuclear shelter why don't ya... That said, I've counted five France to interior Europe and India big historic heat events comparable to the 2012 heat wave in the heartland to M/A regions of the U.S... to just that one event here. Again, I think since the oceans have empirically been shown to have absorbed the initial global warming, c/o NASA: "... The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969..." I think this is jamming perennial heights higher than normal into the NE Pacific... which would tend to a NW mass conserving flow mean through Canada and that may be a why. This is all muddled further by ( imho ) this mock Maunder minimum return stuff with solar. It's not taken seriously enough ...probably because GW is masking it ( both by numbers...and by media meme/popularity), but... the AO is scheduled to favor negative through 2030... well...

I'm sure you've read my rants on this in this in the past ... but, to paraphrase, this entire last two decades has observed SE/E Canada and the NE U.S. in a relative min compared to the whole planet's "hockey-sticking" climate curve... We keep assessing above normals without the kind of extremes that come with it, while regions abroad suffer severity/frequency we've lagged on. It's hard to know why that is... Heights tend to -EPO the NE Pacific because of the ocean heat source ... I think? That would cause a mass-conserved NW flow over the interior of the continent... tending to mitigate some % of 'big heat' potential... "Some %" not being all -

haha

Tempted to call this a 'sneaky' heat wave ... but I don't know how onto this we've been frankly. I know I tried to bring awareness to this era for being a 'low grade heat wave' potential, whence last week was in the guidance ( suggestively..) but I've been surfacing Narra. this weekend and haven't paid attention. Echo other's sentiments - been doing this trip over 10 years with old college buddies and this may be the best combination of water temp, air temp, sky condition and wave dynamics yet.. Altho - I'm not 24 any more and can feel it after Roman Greco wrestling with the surf under that hot sun all weekend. Holy hell - But lower prone location could be talking 95 and 97s today and tomorrow respectively. Looking around at climo sites and their earlier machine numbers ...looks like they generally busted MOS by 3 on the plus side. I suspect that margin behavior may play out again, given to the stagnant conditions and the elevating overnight lows. Perfect conditions for heating with virtual no cloud, west wind... and DPs not being out of control. 71 at 6:30 am down in the typical cool Nashoba Valley ... and it was already 78 on 290 E heading down the hill out of Worcester around 6:55. That spread/behavior is on part with those big heat days last week. Though the 850s are not as warm, I have noticed they warmed in the guidance as we got closer. It's in the 17 C range just eyeballing the FRH grid. ...and with the lower DPs, I suspect unlike last week, the temp side of this can bust warmer by a little. 95 and 97, where achieved are big heat numbers - we'll see where the HI's extend. The heat alert issuance is warranted -

Not to be dinky sounding but... I usually follow the 582 isohypses ' ... if/when north of our latitude, even in sloped and/or cyclonic curvatures...we tend to find our way above 564 dm thicknesses ..with a shot at 570

Europe's recent heat wave is pinching off a warm secluded ridge node and is modeled to slide west toward Greenland. I'm wondering if that may bring warming conditions to the terrestrial interface/boundary layer

GW as being a fallacy: objectivity elided/forced by an opposition that is more likely incapable of perceiving consequence for their stance - 'else, they would not do that. The reasons for that inability are varied from individual to individual, special interest group to special interest group... But by and large, mostly because the specter of what it all means is probably just too untenable within the vaster multi-facets of society, and would not resonate based on verbal warnings alone. However, written on the epitaph of Humanity's headstone, "this is just a fad concern". The human gestalt has never responded as well to threats that are vocal, ..which, compounding, the early efforts to do so attacked the institutions that have procured multiple generations of successful living ( by and large ...) - very bad PR. Compared to when the perception of the threat is corporeal in nature? If a threat can be seen, touched, smelled, felt, or tasted ... people move out of the way. Even now... as the measurements are arriving in clear, coherent datum ... Pompeiians tried to run - when they could finally see it... For everyone else, it would most certainly be abhorrently stirring to deny what was scienced decades ago...and is verifying in the Global environment today. Akin to being warned not to grab the red hot poker... grabbing it, then attempting to persuade people it is not really hot - the onus of persuasion really falls on the other side of that debate at this point if anything at all.... The correlation to the ending preposition - related to global warming - is more likely true than not, given all science on the matter. This all hearkens to a separate issue having to do with modern technology and conveniences effecting perceptions. People are being protected by the former, in such a way ...a bad decision here and there...is no longer resulting in as dire of consequence for a miss-calculation. Integrate that culturally over... it's not helping the AGW--> consequence model in a positive way. As my professorial circle of associates and I have discussed, ...this is as much a sociological crisis as it is a physical sciences one - and until the former is equally addressed... the solutions for the latter will be partial at best.

Word. I've been advertising this me self - Interestingly, the GFSX MOS teeters with a big heat suggestion for Tuesday ... 93s and 94s... I think that's 95 or 96 accounting for climo dimming - It's probably a fropa in there helping to better mix and transport a bit richer stripe out ahead. It's like we get 1 to 2 clicks every day

I find the ocean conveyor stuff intriguing... I recall papers and forum discussion - not local to the history of BB, Wright and Eastern public social media/Internet outlets...or those since, but well prior. Way back in the mid 1990s during the early days of web news-feeds, there were mindful exchanges regarding the fluxing of fresh water from glacial reduction, into the oceanic basins, and plausible climate ramifications. The then more primitive early models of the era suggested density discontinuity --> breakdown of what was called the "Thermohaline Circulation" There's plenty of information on the web within a mouse click of a simple phrase typed into any in the myriad of competing search engine, so not gonna bother with primer on what that is.. But the short version is that when the ocean surface density changes due to fluxes of fresh water, this water does not cold "chimney" as readily... In a more discrete conceptual level, it has to do with the specific gravity of fresh water versus an acquiesce solution of saline water at the same temperature. Salt water weighs more... tending to freshen water above. Arriving warm saline waters from the south mixes with the fresher water in stable mass exchange, but with increased glacial flushing ...the fresh water is in positive anomaly from the added melt sourcing... disturbing that balance. There is thus reducing mass-conservation, physical forcing that pulls the warm surface water from the Equatorial latitudes toward the N. The end result is a slowing of the AMOC in total - What we are observing is a veritable confirmation on those earlier studies... As far as how that effects the atmosphere and the propensity for blocking - I have mixed intellect on that. The temporal super-position of the 11, 22 and 300 year solar cycling are coincident over the next 15 years...staring some 5 years ago... Which means through almost 2030...we should be seeing unusually low frequency of solar events... These eras are correlated to cooling Global temperatures ... admittedly, prior to the onset of Industrialization of Humanity and the latter becoming more of an actual geological force on the environment. Therefore ... it is hard to deconstruct how much AMOC is directly causal in the blocky characteristic to the general circulation medium ... and how much would tend to take place anyway, because -AOs have historically shown more frequency during solar minima. But, this discussion is heavily textured. It's a loaded subject matter. This latter atmospheric response stuff is one thing... But the AMOC possibly being causally linked to Anthropogenic activity is astounding..

CB popping in CT

mm Hm... Yup...and, we have some towering pop-corn kernels already prior to noon suspended over the Worcester Hills up along the spine of the Monads... Usually that's marker for conditional instability... Some of those towers (est) already look over 12K feet from eyeballin' We've had a marginal vertical temperature profile all along but today we have ~ 5 deg of additional DP in the lower layers. The NAM's been flirting with QPF for today and tomorrow actually... Summer garden variety -

I don't deserve any credit - I repeat ...no credit. Mainly... because I did not cobble together a seasonal forecast late last summer/autumn. What I did instead ... was drive-by snark post pot-shots at other's gallant, back-of hand pressed to forehead over glazed eye efforts. I mean... veritable Master's caliber dissertations, replete with advanced word processing and state of the art graphical annotations... and me, blithely and assholier than thouly reducing them in two flippant sentences. Nice. That's the way I roll - Kidding... still, I distinctly recall warning contributors often enough, that gradient saturation, a paradigm shift that has occurred since ~ 2000 and continues to become more destructively interfering as the decades click away ... is muddling the climatology of longer termed multi-seasonal teleconnector packages. The ENSO relative numbers and how they have come to correlate ( hypothetical/supposition ) in the past, .... don't work. They didn't work in the powerhouse mega ENSO ( warm phase ) several years ago; and in fact, ...papers were submitted and peer reviewed successfully noting the startling lack of correlative impacts Globally by one of ...if not the, hot ENSO events ever recorded. ...etc...etc... It becomes less likely ( intuitively..) that minoring standard deviation events could impact the circulation of the Global very meaningful, when the massive momentum contributors, could not. ( I have physical hypothesis why that is, too ) I for one am frustrated by GW/climate change...and the continued reticence to even acknowledge that we are living in times that are increasingly rendering all heretofore correlative expectation-sciences ... less than germane. Perhaps not entirely ... please don't read this as absolute. As we know ... the gears of the environment are lubed by balancing forces ...So...threshold and partials are in play at all times...such that result sets both do and do not represent suggestively... At times, demonstratively so, at others...seeming to have returned to the prior expectation...and so on and so forth. But, given the longer time spans...eventually the new paradigm does take over - we're not there yet... But, I do believe that veracious attempts, from the ranks of aficionados that are fortunate enough to have been born and live in an era that provides them any sort of pulpit at all... ( where social media's "peer review" process is tantamount to popularity politics ), to the exulted societal offices of the science... I'm sensing we are all being bamboozled by our own lack of consideration to the changing paradigm that for some reason... no one considers when they engineer their expectations. So how do we do it? Don't... It's irrelevant. I know it's an interest area... but the sad reality we've come to is that party favor seasonal outlooks are a distraction to the real dystopian storm on the horizon. In 50 years... approximately mid way through the big kill-off ... is this going to matter? ( more snark relax...but, ) if we turn to examining seasonal variance as it relates and is pertinent to the Global crisis...that has some substantive value in it. But hell... this is an open forum to the public hoi polloi...and that's not hand-cuffing students to their desks... it's an entertainment/hobby past-time .... and entertainment and responsibility ... mm, usually part company.

Today is the transition day - Said transition is slow, and has been gaining momentum beneath awareness over the last three days. Sensibly the discomfort crosses the threshold, however, to when it becomes more noticeable ... probably even onerously to some ... thru Wednesday about? But, I suspect that end time is also mutable. To re-iterate. This is 'home grown,' ... which is just metaphoric for not transmitting hot mass from somewhere else. The synopsis and evolution through this next mid week won't fluid mechanically allow 'big heat' air layers from slabbing off the western high country ... ( Sonoran release..), such as that which took place last week. There are short wave length ridge nodes anchored over the Great Basin ( ~ ) region, and another situated ~ 65W or so ... In between, there is a null space. It's not really a trough..it's a default weakness in the total subtropical heights bridging those two areas. It shows up on the deep layer tropospheric analysis as a shear axis... and the 500 mb winds bend S near 85W ... as a buttress preventing big heat promoting air layers. But, astride that axis on the east side, ...the longer that total set up persists...we steadily still add therms to an air mass that is also slowly adding continental theta-e ... which feeds back positively into warming things up. Daily abuse of solar insolation into this stagnant synoptic description is above climo ... helping to further warm. That looks to continue now that the slow moving/vestigial baroclinic leaf structures have slid off to the east. Basically... it's a sun storm. I'd go 83 with biting insect whirs near the ear-lobes in rural countryside hiking trails... to 92's while zipping down sky-exposed highways ... to the typical 105's on those home/personal station tech's tied into that faux data source known as Wunderground's advocacy for calibration and accuracy in data dissemination ... Anyway, the nighttimes will be elevating -

In any case ... the gloating's about done it appears DPs 68 regionally by Sunday ... transitioning tomorrow, along with 90 T its home grown heat, which doesn't appear to break turning the page into the mid range

Yeah I see what Steve means ... but it's home grown triple-H ... 91/67 ... 'nough to keep the above normal while simultaneously only committing to tolerable heat motif rollin' onward ..

Yeah...this July ... summer really, is behaving the way last winter did... Dramatic pattern that yielded modest snow. Only in this antithesis ... we have warmest this and that ever, and no heat - it's been like that... We're on this incredible uninspired streak is really what's going on... I think it would be better cinema if it were normal with three 110 heat waves..heh. Or normal, with three 36" snow tsunamis

Which doper's in the lead ?

I've described this in the past ... a time a friend ascended some tourist summit in Colorado... There's a lodge up there around 12 K ...maybe even 14... or just 10. It was a sunny day... until about 10:30 when convective turrets were ballooning skyward just off to the side ... He described a five minute thunderstorm that started as light rain, then, hail then...heavy grapple.. then flipped around between, heavy rain...then, heavy snow, then light rain...then the sun came back out... That was early August when that happened. It was short sleeve than cold as hell...then short sleeves Now...I don't know about the Alps...but I do know that Mountain meteorology is varied and quite non-traditional. I'm not sure we can just assess "a sudden event" that is maybe convective in nature as hail or snow or rain? May have been varied -

The circulation type/medium appears to want to enter a stable un-altering regime for the rest of the way but ...heh... I'm a little skeptical of that. The alternative isn't much to write home about ..no. At this time of the dog-days of the year, we scrape to find morsels of dystopian fun in the quiescent model cinemas -. Anyway, ..as the big western Europe heat attenuates ...the residual marker in the atmosphere actually pinches off in the majority of model family/means therein ... and then ensues a retrograde motion toward the west across the NE Atlantic high latitudes/ blocking. It becomes questionable whether that blocking node will fully displace across the Greenland region of the NAO domain, or just eventually collapse S and absorb into the westerlies near Iceland. Over the years we've oft' discussed NAO's in terms of "east" and/or "west" based. It just means ... when there are positive heights tending and blocking in the NAO region, ...which limb of the NAO domain space is that massed biased? If in the east, duh ... and so on... But that matters? And, it matters also differently depending on season. Firstly ... -NAOs don't mean the same thing in the ides of July like they implicate to mid winter. The wave lengths all over the hemisphere are a melange of nebular spaghetti ... well, not entirely, but more so.. The winter flow paradigm has more coherent long wave identities compared to summer. Because of that scaffold difference, ...we cannot intuitively/spatially assume a -1 SD NAO in January means or implicates the same teleconnection to New England as it would ( if at all...) in July.. I suspect there are thresholds... Like, a -1 SD January NAO may be more effective at forcing our flow type here, because the wave lengths are so much longer - the signal is likely "cleanly" transmitting abroad. Contrasting to summer...with garbled noisy trough fragments and ridge islets ...and shrapnel wave schisms ... the mass balancing purpose of the teleconnections can be satisfied over much smaller regions ...such that in simpler words, -1 just gets lost in the noise. However, get to a -4 SD NAO ...it may be so extreme at that deviation that it simply has to extended to a larger area to satisfy mass -conservation and so ... The summer NAO may be conditionally correlative based upon relative strength. But that's all for primer - Over the next two weeks ... the NAO is forecast to be mightily negative... however, it is also presently east biased... in the -2 maybe -2.5 SD range. We'll have to see how that effects ( if at all..) the latitude of the westerlies over eastern N/A... Other than that, yeah...the PNA is dead as correlation at this time of year... In fact, the CDC and CPC are out of phase entirely over the next 10 days with one rising while the other is falling.. good luck. But the idea that -NAO means heat over eastern N/A is not really an outright assumption - or shouldn't be.. Not with all these juggling facets..

Use copy-down... apply the formula to the cell you have highlighted there. Check the results ...etc... Then, right click, 'copy'. Next, highlight the three cells below the one that is highlighted there ( which are the cells you want the same formula to apply ) .. and then right click --> 'paste'. You should see the cells fill in with the correct formulaic results. Edit ...oh, okay ...steve helped you then - tru

It already did ... wtf

Meanwhile back at home... The GFSX keeps flopping between a low-grade heatwave for locales such as Fitchburg to Bradley in the interior in the middle range. But, it also had that for Thur-Saturday whence last weekend was outlooked ...and we're not there. So, trend for failure is afoot. So take fwiw it does have 90 ... 92's Sun-Tue now ... The other thing...I'm noticing that the present NW Europe heat gets pinched off and lifted in latitude to where it formulates an at first extreme easterly biased -NAO ridge node. This feature then migrates toward Greenland in the extended... establishing a more rudimentary -NAO overall circulation look.. That may be our next heat shot, ... not from the source..But, summer R-wave length arguments do allow for some form of ridge in the spacing over eastern NA/ mid latitudes... It's not something that is either very high in confidence, or presently modeled... But, should the nearer termed behavior of using the heat departures in a planetary wave dispersal sequencing over the NE - N arc of the Atlantic transpire, I would not be surprised if semblances of ridging start emerging more and more for a time over the first two weeks of August.

9 by 9 worked there ... or the equivalent anyway - looks like it was about 89 at 9 and they ended up 99

Yeah ... as July ages toward August, and then August becomes September and on and so one, daylight dwindles. Remarkably perceptive group. But I find it interesting that there is a dichotomy there. Many of the same individuals ( that spend too much time in this social media ) ... wish the summer time away at the same time they seem to wanna commiserate the loss of the sun.