Typhoon Tip

Ten hours. Super massive stars that begin fusing Hydrogen into Helium during their early lives, will burn so hot and furiously through their Hydrogen mass that within just a few million years they will begin fusing the Helium they have created, into heavier elements. This goes onward, each cycle faster than the predecessor, because the energy produced by fusion of these increasingly heavier elements adds more and more energy to the nucleosynthesis process, thus speeding it up. Once the star begins fusing Silicon into Iron ...that's the end of the line. BOOM. That fusion into Iron at the core is the end of the line because it takes more energy than is provisionally in place left over from the previous nucleosynthesis processes to fuse Iron into heavier elements such Gold ..etc. The star no longer is producing additional energy thus begins to lose thermal pressure, and can no longer withstand its own incredible gravity. The core collapses... When that collapsing mass hits the neutron density being created by compressing protons and electrons together ( the creating of a neutron star associated with ~ 8 solar mass stars or > ), it rebounds in a horrific explosion called a Super Nova. Here is the fascinating part. Because the star is so large, that process of core implosion to 'Nova, takes time - on the order of ten hours. In that time, the outside observer sees the star as burning normally. It's really quite literally as though the outside spherical envelope of the star its self, is a dead man walking. A corpse unaware... that it's heart beat has ceased, and has no idea about the the shock wave about to annihilate from below. When I read articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/europe/insect-apocalypse-report-scn/index.html I am driven to the above primer; where humanity, and perhaps a lot of other species to go along with, may be living and breathing, and carrying on in their existence as though quite metaphoric with that above theme, having no idea ( or in our case, vaguely..). There are so many moving parts to the climate change catastrophe, and it is absolutely a catastrophe. So few are aware, or could even begin to conceptualize the immense inter dependencies of the entire biological system. We read about polar bear habitats. Sea level rises.. Droughts and heat waves. And we think we got it? As commoners, we don't even know the 1% of it. As scholars and scientists, we don't know the half. But as we burn and carry on in our ways and means, in a lot of ways it is as though we are symbolically existing through our final, proverbial ten hours.

This is blue bomb time of the year, however ... and I wouldn't ever consider a D7 to D8 threat with any sense of immutability. This happens in March and April, too. Mid and extended range systems will often materialize in runs as marginal-warm. But as they system nears .. assuming it's real and is going to happen of course, the models nick 10th of a degree off the 850 mb thermal layout, and it starts to morph marginal-cool over subsequent runs. What was once +1 to +3C ... ends up -1 to +1C at 850 mb. The other aspect is that because there is no cold source below the 700 mb and the system is mostly mid level mechanics, the sounding tends to be 'isothermal' below 850 mb... So if it is 0 C at 850 in a coastal system that is east, that NW arc of the circulation envelope and cyclonic influence will tend to be 0 C at all sigma levels right plumb to the deck. You end up big aggregate at 33 F ... and so on and so on, from an originally modeled +3 C, 850 mb miller A rainer. This system next week strikes me as possibly of that ilk. Have to monitor it. Because, already we are seeing some of that model modulation toward cooler profiles by the Euro and GGEM... very slight, run after run of erosion. Two days ago, they were hinting at this miller A as warmer circulation comparing to now - and the game's afoot. We'll see.

Heh... I think cold's interesting though. I think hot's interesting too. There are synoptic events associated to either that are identifiable, particularly when either is extreme/challenge climatology over a region - and then adding time spans to those unusual cold or hot periods underscores the value, that uniquely convergent parameters have circumstantially come together to engender either. It's kind of like synergy on the ocean and this 'rogue wave' phenomenon? Think about it that way for a moment. You have this active sea-surface with an average swell height of 24' ...then, due to wave mechanics, suddenly the ocean becomes devoid of 24' swells in a vicinity .. in lieu of one giant wave toppling some 70' out of seeming nowhere. There are events in the atmosphere that are sort of metaphoric of that phenomenon - in fact, maybe more than merely metaphoric considering. In either the oceanic or atmospheric cases, there is a kind of gestalt where the results appears more than than the sum of their constituent parts. The 'Super storm 1993' event was an atmospheric rogue wave. The 1995 and 2012 heat waves in the Midwest were also positive feed-back scenarios where components came together uniquely. The Cleveland Super Bomb and perhaps the one later that year here along the New England coast, were examples of synergy, too. I can remember some some cold waves that were truly memorable. Heck, the entire February 2015 multi-storm assault... some of which blew wind and carried about in single digit cold over the NE U.S. was rather rogue-ish. Heat and cold waves have their place. They are identifiable. They are impacting. But this is a very rational opine - obviously we all have our personal druthers, which seldom reflect the purely rational frame of mind, to put it nicely. From a purely scientific perspective however, I think it's interesting that it's 10 to 18 F across the region prior to Thanks Giving - it opens the door to a whole spectrum of questions related to climate and climate change. Lot's of room for discovery.

Better than what ... ha November had -EPO loaded cold waves and at least chances - that's lucky to get that far this early. We should be so lucky in December, relative to that month. I think expectations were/are set a little high if folks are disappointed by a November with -20 C tappable and pervasive in Canada, and at least a favorable beginnings - so it didn't snow prodigiously in November. Holy hell the humanity. 'Course I don't know what the aft pages of that discussion were so ...

zero flakes seen in Shrewsbury Mass...

The MJO is quite robustly signalling +PNAP pattern should evolve over the N/American continent, particularly in the GEFs .. .but the EPS mean-based prognostics are within comparable similarity, too - just not slightly as. Either way, the two together is a destructive wave interference for the flatter look featuring SE ridging out in time, so correcting to relaxed flow in the SE may have some footing. It may be that some part of this lost -EPO is in the process of reconstructing around a +PNA ... and yes there is a disconnect at times in the EPO and PNA domain spaces. But if the former is true, than pretty much all operational synoptic charts related to D7-12 from the last two to three days were probably fallacious. "IF" we'll see.. Because there's also some question about the MJO's ability to force considering it isn't abundantly clear whether the wave's mechanics are tapping into the mid latitudes due to that HC -related expansion. Similar to why modest warm(cool) ENSO are having increasingly difficulties observing coupled atmospheric states in recent seasons. interesting -

Oh ...geez, I missed the statement in the beginning - yeah, I guess what's relevant to them.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ice-refuge.html

I think it's interesting that these excerpts have an over-arching theme of monetary this and that, and how it will effect commerce ... And guess what? Money means nothing in nature. Nor, to climate change's ability to dwindle species survivability - yes, that includes the conceit of humanity, a fragility that will be exposed. Is this narrative - money vibe some manipulation of the audience? I mean, considering... it is an audience that cannot connect with anything unless they are impacted in their wallets, it's an understandable device. It's the only way to get them to pay attention and take this shit seriously.

I'm less than entirely familiar with the specifics of Australian climatology ... other than exposure to outback heat and dry cinema portrayed through science channel this, or old movie that.. I think it interesting that they are only in their spring .. which concomitantly means, the higher hotter sun and air potential looms, and it seems at a very simple level of consideration that this cannot project very favorably that this is happening this early.

Agreed ... Quantum Field theorists can contemplate the IQ of God, yet ... "Meteorologism" has no f'n clue how to assess whether 6" on a cold measuring board is going to mean the same thing on a sidewalk and street that day. It's a matter of priorities like everything, I suppose. But geez, one might think time and energy would be pragmatically expended polishing those definitions and applications .. considering snow's efficacy has a direct physical/environmental impact. Buuut, considering the societal endowment for capital ambition is a total roll-up value in the trillions, while babies are dying from diseases that have millions devoted to researching cures, perhaps it's understandable from this particular species. We deserve our plight ... this climate change shit is going to cause at minimum a limited scale apocalypse - anyone that doesn't know or suspect that is either in denial or incredible f'ing stupid and [ most likely ] default line-toeing and contributing hugely to making that happen. Which ... is 97 percent of all people.

If we could iron out some of those kinks in the flow D6 to 10 in the Euro, we'd be hangin' up Indian Summer -like conditions and temperatures in there.

Yup, you beat me too it by a couple of minutes Yeah, it could be that we are in process of relaying the block, since the NAO domain is the next physically favorable location, it just takes time to transmit from the north Pacific ... fascinating.

Interesting... the CPC's indicating the AO mean is going to stay negative with reasonably well-clustered members indicating such ( along the usual 'tidal' sloshing of the curve), and there "might" be an emerging -NAO. The latter is new. This is happening as the PNA is descending, which is actually somewhat positively correlated with the NAO ( meaning they show some tendency to move together ) looking that up on the correlation/table matrix of indices. Very tentative, but it may be that we are really just observing a relay of blocking tendencies at high latitudes...We lose the EPO but gain the NAO .. One thing that sticks out the ( this is the GEFs cluster ) is that the AO stays negative regardless ...

Yeah... again, as I was just telling Great Snow 1717 or whatever that user's handle is .. I don't have much of an opinion beyond the D10 .. just that those few days leading up, snow chances are fleeting.. Which, the focus there is so because, lets face it, that's the focus in here, not that I need to point that out - haha. oy Anyway, I'm still personally rattled a little that the polarward indices gave up/or are giving out like that ..I thought we had a shot this year, in fact in all honesty was leaning this way, for a fairly robust early winter onset. Back two weeks and change ago, we started seeing these -EPO tele's and operational hints and there it was... And, there we were and have been, but I wasn't seeing this side of it and am wondering where we go now. The thing is ...the idea of the -AO ( EPO/?NAO?) was footed in the notion that the we are descending toward negative, as is suggested by multi-decadal curve with monitoring of the polarward indices; the ENSO being neutral-ish, and also being buried ineffectually inside the expanded Hadley Cell as it appear to be, and is thus less capable of coupling/forcing ( similar to what happened last year/winter), ... it seems an easy logical conclusion that we are more prone from N/stream antics. I guess what it comes down to is, when our intents live by the AO, our intents suffer by it too.

Well... not prepared to comment on Mr. Cosgrove and/or time spans ... I have no idea or opinion about December. If anything, I'd hedge toward the -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO? ) to reassert - I just don't wanna go on record because I gotta say ... One fascinating aspect about the last ~ five years of observing the teleconnector --> reality and verification, is that the former is becoming less dependable as a predictive tool. The reason for that, I feel, is because although the mass conservation/physics won't/don't change regardless of era, what does change is that mass fields them selves, where larger global -scaled systemic eddy forcing is causing larger mass field modalities to changes quicker and more stochastic. Typical reliance ( or old school reliance ) is becoming less so. I've seen three to five day stints of solid coherent -AO in the CPC suddenly, quite unexpectedly vanish with increasing frequency ...etc.. It's really that specifically, how the multi-run/continuity aspect used to lend to confidence, is being rattled by CC ( most likely it's an aspect of climate change - ).

You may have access to products that I do not - in fact, if you still work for WSI ...that's likely true. That said, I was just referring to the EPS through D10, which across the continent/mid -latitudes is entirely comparable to the GEFS evolution between D's 6 to 10, and neither is very encouraging for cold maintenance at mid latitudes from what I am seeing. There's probably some room for interpretation differences, but admittedly ( this is my opinion ) we need the -EPO to be rather robust either way, or we suffer the same marginal to above threshold states.

We got this cold shot mid week and then perhaps another more glancing one toward week's end but after that? Eiee - One can really see the effects of shutting off the -EPO cold spigot across the mid latitudes of the continent. Despite the calendar going S .. the pattern wants to go N when that happens, and the 850s relax with less incursions and what cold there is, becomes marginal -1 to +1 C 850's in pockets - pretty much coast to coast S of the 50th parallel. November is climatologically not a big snow producing month. Best bet to have overcome whatever causes those climate numbers to be what they are, would have been this last ten days or so. Whatever we get out of this flat fropa with some ANA characteristics along with this "too late" wave, may be it for a while in terms of realistic chances. There's always "a chance" the pattern automagically reloads despite the current operational tenors and their associated teleconnection/ensemble means, but that's hoping at that point. Partial impetus here ... without the -EPO cold loading, it's hard either seasonally ( November), or in a warming CC scenario, to set the synoptic table with dependable cold at mid latitudes. I suspect beyond circa Friday the the probability curve for snow around the NE U.S. may drop to climo or even less for a while. I'm actually a bit surprised by this to be frank. I thought this was going to be a -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO?) late autumn/early winter, with less observed coupled ENSO influence... It seems the latter is true, but the former hiatus I wasn't expecting. So, we seem to heading into a nondescript look - interesting. Sort of an abandoned mid latitudes left to its own devices..

Hey does anyone have that URL for the weather underground/wunderground home stations ... ? I had a system crash and am using a back up, which unfortunately doesn't have any of those URLs - trying to search for it is next to impossible as everything guides you to some marketing exposure.

Man ..that's a nasty miserable look on the Euro for day's 7 thru 10 .. I mean we gotta park a high pressure N of us over eastern Ontario, with 850 mb temperature between +3 and +6 C in November That's definitely an alternate hobby-worthy look there. The thing is ... who knows if those details will work their way out like that layout, but it appears the cold washes out pretty quickly at the loss of the -EPO construct.

It's actually amazing outside if people let it... 52 here with near full sun is sensibly quite the balmy blast after 48 hours of nascent acclimation to dry uninspired cold. Almost makes me wish it'd just stay this way. I am starting - admittedly - to get into that middle age tendency to reflect in futility .. pretty much about everything in reality for that matter. But, sun rise ... sun sets, seasons in seasons out - it does all get a bit repetitive. Really the best word for it. The older we get and integrate memory engrams, the harder it is to challenge those experiences, those types of events whose standard deviation exceeds one's personal data set; they must also by definition get increasingly rarefied. Been there - done that.

The "wink" emoji's are condescending in most usages. It only adds to that "tone" when being winked out by someone whose interpretation isn't correct - As far as the other stuff, I don't actually claim to not be affected by the weather in an emotional or spiritual way. Never have. However, I do go on record as having better self-control in not allowing it to really "get to me" in the same way that is oft palpable in the regulars here - who clearly use this social media platform as a support group. Kidding a little there, but, nothing I said is untrue in the previous post. So, be that as it may... sometimes I do like to use the truth as a weapon - because it really just exposes the delusion that exists in the reader. The reader shouldn't be reading in, in that way in many cases as well.

Battles ...? I was just in the process of thumbs upping that post - haha... He nailed it. I never said once that I didn't get annoyed by the weather - I just believe I have a better self-control and use that in a devious way. Lol.

Maybe because there's nothing to figure out I'm just stating reality - I said, yay, cool to see 10 F in Novemeber. But, it's still missed opportunities for the storm enthusiasts, too.

If you're into the temperature depths as an empirical oddity sure... Otherwise, pointless cold - This is/has been a pointless stretch for storm enthusiasts ... by and large. Pretty remarkable that such a strong H.A. and corrective look failed .. .But, it sort of didn't fail too, because well, there is a precipitation event. Joke. There'll be some imby-driven dissent on that idea, of course... central NE and whatever, but while they gloat, they'll be blissfully unaware that everywhere got subjected to cold unutilized in greater proportion to whatever this pos doles out. Otherwise, yayyyy - we got our 10 F in November yet again. Pretty cool -