Typhoon Tip

One thing I've been noticing about the difference between the Euro and the GFS is ... The GFS has internal destructive wave interference over the TV...centered roughly on 84 hours off the 06z ( to exemplify the point), but has been carrying on with that contention for many runs. The Euro seems to be smoothing and/or not just disagreeing that will be the case. The differences parlay ... The Euro then goes on to having more of a 'slug' of DPVA and total mechanics for quicker cyclogen and is thus cooling the column quicker. Contrasting, and despite the GFS' seeing this as a bomb a week and a half ago ( haha ), the GFS' negates that look and it's resultant low weaker and faster.

Oh yeah! right - that's the one, but I was actually thinking back to before even that... Of course, the GFS goes out to the edge of time and space, so - The 5th has been signaled for trough intrusion through the ambient SE ridge ( at least attempted) the whole way though.. That's probably the "what the models are really for" practical intent, and thus...take away - but obviously, these tools are used for people's psychotropic entertainment addiction in here, so are not judged accordingly... I mean, if one wants to be objective about it, and not just being snarky ( like I just did ) out of hand, there's intrinsic value in the low being there, not the details of it. But that's just me I guess... Come circa Sunday night..I'm beginning to wonder if we will at that time be two events through otherwise gloomy two week relaxation of misery. Ha ha. Maybe we'll be saying something like, " Outside of this mid week, looks like a tough stretch coming up..." Then, next Friday arrives three successfully entertaining events logged, and we'll be saying ... " Outside of this early next week, looks like a tough stretch coming up" ..etc In fact, I'm growing increasingly confident that we are seeing an emergent property in the 50 to 60th latitudes over N/A that is actually a cold feed-back at larger synoptic scales, from this expanded HC business. What the latter may be doing is helping to enhancing the tendencies for confluence as that aggressively abuts the N/Stream, and so we end up with the polar highs and big thermal slope events with warm air at mid levels. It seems there is an abnormally large plethora of those being shredded out by the GFS in the guidance's behavior... more so as we've gotten into the middle(er) part of winter here. Seems it has a D11 ice storm on every other run. But more importantly, these highs in southern Canada are not being handled well at longer ranges ( D6 or7 + ), and thus, the models "tend" to only see SE ridging at those times. The other aspect when comparing the EPS to the GEFs, .. I'm seeing both means playing into their own bias some...The Euro's cluster is a bit too deep in the SW ...and that small amount of feed-back then gets ballooned when it dumps L-h into the ridging and it's being exaggerated. The GFS stretches things too much, ...if not, moves too fast in its progressivity tendency.

HYE ya'll.. How 'bout this guy, GFS' member P006 ( 00Z) ...with a torqued CCB around the west side drillin' b-ward conditions through central zones, up through eastern VT/NH and ME There were other members that were almost this impressive too... I'd count, maybe 5.25 members if I were trying to be objective but there's a gradation with the weaker ones, and none have no low pressure concern at all. So, overall, I'd say that's > 50% confidence for something by a goodly margin. The amplitude is intriguing... Does anyone have that URL handy, where you can enter a date and it has the model run ? Or am I imagining such an availability is out there - I'm curious because I can swear, I recall the GFS having a solution like this above or thereabouts...some 10 days ago. Then, it smeared it into a Lakes Cutter, at other times, just a big bag of amorphous/weak LP with QPF non-committal ever since. Seeing these runs not "maybe" formulating a consensus on this thing, maybe isn't without precedence -

I don't like the positive slope of that trough though... It's stealing the DPVA. That's why you want the slope of the trough to 'fish hook' the southern end, so that the DPVA is normal to the isohypses and your UVM blows a hole in the top of the tropopause... blah blah... but, we can still get decent cyclogen too - just saying... it's leavin' some on the field.

Not sure if it's entirely a practical use of time debating that particular model's depiction from 120 hours or so out, but I'd have to say that is an incremental improvement over the 12z run as far as profiling for winter enthusiasts. That's code for ... more snow.

That ICONic p.o.s. model has 4-6" off an NJ model secondary this weekend for what it's indubitably worth -

Right...we haven't attempted to move a storm through a west -based -NAO compression, either. You made it sound like a silver bullet fix was Atlantic... heh...it's a bit more complex than that.

I'm talking about Meteorology here... The heights are anchored in the GW anomaly that's ...just ... it

If you want my opinion ...which I know you gaze out at the auburn sunsets forlorning to hear ... Nope - The SE ridge isn't a SE ridge as is; it is the entire planetary tropical girdle of heights... In other words, that's just a nodule of a beast that frankly, I keep discussing but everyone's either ignoring, or don't understand, or don't take seriously... but, it's well-papered that the Hadley Cell is expanding. Now, this does not directly impugn your assessment when you say "SE ridge" ... buuut, the problem is, the heights are not going anywhere if there is Atlantic blocking/-NAO west based or not... In fact, what results in that circumstance is hellacious Neptunian wind velocities yanking Denver's air mass and fire hosing it at France... Can't get storms in that kind of compressed flow.

oh god. I saw that emblem down in the lower left there and though, "wow - this late in the season"

That's a nother thing... I wonder if we're ever gonna get one of these big rosby rollout warm ups on D10 to actually verify - It's like the opposite of previous years with this model. Usually, there's a D9 bomb on every run that gets so common false people stop even commenting on it. This is like a phantom early spring opposite of that -

I was with you on that... The the error balloons from about D4.5 on that run, re that particular wave. It looks like the model overly conserves it's mechanics and digs it too prodigiously in toward W. TX or thereabouts... and then of course it has to then consider what to do with all that power once it is ejected... ending up in a upstate bomb. I suggest that D4-5 comes out flatter and that thing ends up a NJ model type low ...but I also caution, that's all predicated on the assumption it's right at D4, first.

Re the Euro... I'd like to point out a subtlety. Four cycles ago (12z yesterday), this was a stem-wound bomb up in western/central Ontario re the 5th-ish. 00z last night had that more Buffalo's longitude, with suggestion of a secondary ...at least attempt if not reflection. This 12z run seems destined to continue along that trend of correcting E... I just want to note, that the Euro tends to have a slight west/amplitude trough bias at D7+, so...this syncopated correction isn't without precedence.

Yeah...considering these next ten days to two weeks, looks like three potentials for inclemency: Jan 5-6, 8-9, 11-13 How those perform ( obviously) have more coherency the nearer in time, but It's not hard ( for me ) to see why we are "Lake cutter" saturated with storm tracks, in the mean modeling behavior this cold season. I put that in quotes because my take on things are at odds, philosophically, with the recognition of how/why lows cut early and turn polarward through the Great Lakes longitude(s) as guidance has biased. We are looking at a coincident result, more so than a pattern that typically drives those. The Hadley Cell bloated stuff is simply messing everything up. The storm track is being pushed N in the mean - this is papered... - and North America seems to be suffering the same. That's different from a pure -PNA/-PNAP flow construct. Having said that, there are ways to overcome that forcing ... There just needs to be relative anomalies embedded with the necessary power to do so. Which can and will at some point happen. As well, just because the HC is inflated anomalously "heighty", doesn't mean it will always be that way... So things can time that way, too. It's not a good era for modeling ...particularly latter mid and extended ranges, because the velocity saturation and 'stretching' of wave mechanics makes determinism at an excessive premium to put it nicely.

I couldn't agree with this more... yeah. Thing is, it's a sociological problem - if we want to put a sciency sounding label to it. I have a PHD friend in the academia of the Boston circuit of Universities ( MIT-BU-Harvard and gang if it helps to drop names...) and she's utterly agreed with me on that, that the GW "debate" isn't a debate - it's an advantageous era where people have become complacent with the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution -based tech culture. If someone literally feels physical and emotion pain and anguish as a direct consequence and penalty of GW, they'll admit it. It's that simple...thus, it's a sociological problem when integrating that baser evolutionary aspect into the whole. Humans... all animals for that matter, don't respond as well to stimulus they cannot directly sense through one of the corporeal senses: Sight, Sound, Touch, Taste or Smell... and usually, more than one is more convincing. GW? Doesn't have that advocate... It's specter is invisible...particularly when the person hearing or reading about it, is submerged in examples that are always somewhere else in the world, while always when they are sitting in a comfortable office or personal living space. Even the poorer classed hoi - polloi that don't have quite all the accessibility to the same advantages as higher echelon, live luxuriantly cozy existences compared to the 47-year old life expectancy of their paleo-forefathren ... People deny GW/CC ...whatever we want to call it, because they can...and, they will do what they can, if it takes not having to face that they can't live the way they've grown accustomed to living. That's the problem facing the World. ...and why that 'catch-22' will probably require a massive population correction and tech set back, before some form of non -profligate, responsible/conservative approach to building the scaffold of future society heralds the real next phase in human evolution. Which,...this is that turning of the page - it never goes smoothly... That's being optimistic, too... We don't even know what the finality of these detrimental evidences are, as they are still in the process of f'n the environmental as it is. We keep fielding papers that x, y or z is worse than projected it would be. ...list goes on... The catch-22? It's because the very evolutionary advantage that the vicissitudes of gratuitous chance endowed humanity with, the genius of ingenuity, appears destined to have created it's own demise. Cheers

I understand what you are saying /mean ... I think.. But for the general reader: one has to be careful with the above line of reasoning. It's used/abused, to negate the impacts of climate change to liberally...almost as a rationalization and denial of truth, because most in the business of doing so have too much to gain or maintain, in not admitting that it is a problem - more over, that it is a problem that all science included, most definitely appears to be human attributed. That said, there is another danger in the above line of reasoning; it also negates the necessity to use climate trend analysis in the setting of expectations. If the climate is demonstrating a logorithmic change ( accelerating one...) in either a negative or positive direction, wrt to any metric, it is wise to consider that ensuing period of time in question might exhibit that same tendency in that metric. Otherwise, there is no problem - the way I see it ... - it assuming events and systems in a case by case basis, independent of that expectation. People have trouble separating those two... but, it's really more like ... if a case ends up warm, and the climate curve is accelerating warmer, ...the probability was > 50% for that in the first place. The real problem here is that climate masks causality. People use that against the climate signal, which is false. Not you per se... but these are aspects pertinent to the present World, and one's that irk me.

This social -media arena has a concentration of those plugging their joy circuitry/dependency into the drama they see on charts. Blah blah ... been opining this for a long time, but at times it is still down right patently like the 60-minutes expose on psychotropic addiction behavior. Hm, I guess it's better than opiodes, but ... it doesn't lend at all to objective thinking/perception on matters. I'm with Brian ... you guys 86 a month based on what? Okay. To each his, her, or whatever variation of gender-reassignment's own I guess...be miserable if that's your bag man You might not have to wait as long as you think... Just look at member P8 at 228 hours from 00z last night. This would shut down the PHL-BOS corridor completely...

Mm... I wouldn't be presuming anything has be after January's first week - don't have to look far for the advisability of doing that, this winter storm ( hello ) happening in an utter dearth of antecedent teleconnector suggestion. Jesus - That said, ...yeeeah, it's looking pretty bleak if one employs the American indices ( ha). Ugh. In fact, winter over. Haven't seen a signal that bad since the infamous early January of 2007... That said, the D6-10 EPS would argue for a better winter appeal over the U.S.. not sure how well that is teleconnected to the rest of the hemisphere, but that's a very cold look at 240 in that blended mean. The operational not really being an extreme outlier, is actually a sign that the signal may be potent - if perhaps counter intuitive. The impetus being, the mean is always banal compared to the individual member so not seeing that means the weight/correction vector may be toward more amplitude. anyway, it's not as discouraging as the American cluster is all. Huh ...but just looking at the CDC my god. You'd have think the ensemble system is just f'ed up and broke, and needs to be emptied and reset or something. Hard to believe every domain space is biased the same direction - that's really almost pushing physics.

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.