Typhoon Tip

Nah it’s most likely that Euro runs over doing that amplitude just like it’s never not done re anything in that time range for the past 30 months

I’m jealous. There’s nothing else going on in this godforsaken shitty mess of a world we live in and the weather can’t be any worse than rain at 37 fn deg it’s got me run down and wishing I could just see a snowstorm in April. I’m not gonna lie ... if it’s a big event any April I’ll take it to the bank. But at this point snow might be interesting diversion

because 1070 mb highs happen all the time

Does look like Sandy in an homage - Those individual members are 'perturbed' which just means they have variant physical equations ...but that means the convective processes are handled slight different, creating different system-internal thermal handling ... This was evidenced as warm secluded already, so it meandering over a tepid SST G-string out there ...it may be taking on 'faux' profiles due to version-based thermal surplus... If/when it did take on 'real' ST characteristics probably requires analysis after the fact.

Looks like the 12z NAM is cooling the 800 mb to SFC thermal profile in the last 18 hours of this retrograde event enough to offer 'chutes/paws for the Worcester Co and probably Middlesex ...west of I-95.. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61 BOS 36013955313 -2208 120428 45040000 ... Those "00" are 0C at 800 and 900 mb from right to left... Cold rain at Logan, wet sn inland? 42013966315 -1210 160325 44030000 48010944320 -1613 190320 44020197 54002923624 -0912 200415 44029998

This thing tomorrow night ... I thought it just a 'spoke' of vorticity orbiting around a west Atlantic/-NAO spring cut-off climo, but it's more than that. This is a 'hook and latter' Nor'easter. The low is retrograding west and places the region inside its envelope - this isn't a mere spoke rotating around.

GFS has done this every years since about 2005 ... It fails to negotiate its way out of winter into seasonal change. Way back whence ... circa 1993, I remember there used to be winter algorithms and summer algorithms in the models - then it was the 'MRF'. I'm pretty sure.. I thought over the evolution that was no longer the case...but, the GFS did this last year and year before, and the year before that ...etc.., where it gets beyond day 10 and the whole fields goes back to Jan 15 at this time of year. Interesting -

Saturday then opens up spectacular ...could be a first top 10er day of the year. 850's +2 C SE of a Rut-Con line... with PGF focusing a subtle d-slope look, and RH flooring/open sky .. it could snow Friday morning at least in the air, and have that be 66 F the next afternoon in that look... I don't actually care as much suffering April shitz weather if it's going to modulate mercy the next day like that - fine!

wow, this 12z Euro run is very darn near close to an isothermal Friday morning ...about +.25 C at 850 with that low retrograding to near the BM... interesting -

Classic gaining sun-angle mid spring scenario where the MOS may nail it but the backyards bust 1 to 3 clicks warmer... Love these faux-warm afternoons for the alternative they offer comparing the drab misery of yesterday's ilk. So it's 50 here at multiple home stations within a mile or two of mi casa. And the wind is negligible ...so when you find a 'sun nook' it's really a stolen gem compared to what the overall week's appeal looked like at any modeling point before this day for this time period.

Ohgh....no comparison! Compared to yesterday and the day before? my god - I'll take 47 and full sun post the Equinox over that layering between rectal-plaque and Satan's colon walls weather we were given yesterday. That was our world-ending salvation...

Wouldn't shock me if locales like Blue Hill observatory ...or up along the slopes of the eastern ORH hills recoup a few hours of cat paws or even some mangled 'chutes during the first 6 or so hours of that (50-56 hours) in a NAM thermal handling. Actually all models indicate that interval as warm advection from the NE ... a bit counter-intuitive but that is actually not that atypical for a deeply core-wrapped west Atlantic cyclones that are pinned under a west based -NAO ridge in the spring. This used to happen more frequently in the 1990s. So we get some pingers and white globule rain drops for a while, and then it's cold mist and light rain horror show for another 12 hours after that, and then we're done as the whole structure rotates SE and away... And notice the 500 mb thickness tapestry matures some 6 to 10 dm prior to after that spoke pivots through? That's a warm front/symbolically Saturday could be a fantastic day and probably starts the transition into an extended period of probably the best 850 mb thermal layout of the spring so far..though obviously nuances/sensible surface weather to be determined. The Euro looked like it was attempting to paint a couple gems 7, ...10

agreed! very much echoed this a couple weeks ago when it was obviously destined that way

which is inversely proportionate to stating, ' we will always understand Kevin's illogic'

Presently ...for those that hold out for a late surprised, your window 'appears' to be this week. The antecedent -NAO was remarkably well handled by the various ensemble means, but the details in the flow ( timing/spacing waves et al) have emerged to nuance this particular version of a -NAO ...utterly meaningless to your hopes and dreams. Which in a petty sort of way, the spring/seasonal change and warm enthusiasts suffer beside you in equal proportion, because any -NAO in the first week of April is not a warm signal either, particularly if/when it is idiosyncratically west-based... That said..., at least for the warm enthusiasts, the -NAO appears to (thankfully!) have a lease. The Euro operational run has been signaling the NAO blocking node(s) as collapsing to mesh in with the perennial Atlantic heights, leaving a bit more zonal component to the westerlies at high latitudes across the D. Straight/adjacent N. Atl Basin as near as this week's end ... The GFS seems, as usual, to be fictionalizing the Hemisphere of Neptune on Earth by beady-eyed obsession to keep the flow progressive and therefore loses any signal at all in lieu of said bias beyond 5 days - so tougher read there. But, as far as the Euro, it concomitantly raises the heights over eastern N/A mid latitudes/U.S. It's not a hugely demonstrative ridge or anything, but it may become more prevalent given some marinading in time. The EPS made a pretty significant adjustment in the D7-10 range toward more a -PNAP signal...and with the NAO at that time appearing to either be neutral/rising, that could be the real, true seasonal exit and green up ... 'outdoorsy' push that flips the script. We'll see, but that signal starts ~ 6 days from now and matures going onward from there. In the meantime, this week is tormented misery unfortunately. D4 may actually feature a pivot/-NAO spoke of wet snow and cold rain coming down like we used to see in the 1990's springs. Kind of reminiscent there. Beyond that... April is very tough to establish and maintain warm signals. Even in the warmer characterized patterns, we have such a huge dichotomy between land/continent and near-by Labrador modified death vapor. By physical circumstance and gravity, that latter is denser and wants to be underneath said warmth of the continent - which by irony and [probably] the design of satan himself no doubt, that's where humanity of course must be. It's like there is a permanent counter vector always pointing SW underneath the environmental synoptic appeals, at all times - think "white men can't jump" - oh they can, they just have to work harder to do it. Same here... we can get warm in April, but we have to overcome this veritable vector ... arriving (typically) in the form of back-door fronts, and/or like this week, seemingly eternal west Atlantic cut-off gyres. So, having a tentative warm signal heading toward the 10th of the month is almost a blessing already - certainly a start.

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.