Typhoon Tip

Catch -22... Most people ... they don't really respond. Not beyond nods and brow raises around water coolers, and social functions ...when it comes to these sort of macro-threats. Part of the problem? ...well, most of it actually ... is that it's just too big to be mentally tenable. It's fascinating dystopian novel work and akin to Hollywood cinema ... more so than anything anyone has seen. Therein in is another aspect to the general peril. Humans primary only respond to threats directly perceived via the corporeal senses... Taste, touch, smell, sound and sight... if we don't taste the acid, feel the heat ( though that's changing), smell the rotting carcasses, hear burning woods or see the tsunamis coming over the horizon... meh. We give those polite head nods and acknowledging brow raises...but no one is going to amend their ways without seeing these calamities actually unfolding,. There's the catch-22...by the time they see, them... it's too late. And what makes this catch-22 extraordinarily textured ( ...if ironic), evolution provide the human species with this incredible power of ingenuity... to master its domain and manipulate the environment. It brought us out of the primordial dependency on just the ecological provisions ( like all other animal species on this planet ), to supplant those guiding proxies over our survival prospects. Now... those inventions that were made to do so? Will end said species -

at work

Jokes aside.... take the average monthly departures over say the past 240 months and divide by 240 - That's probably a reasonable numeric first guess and probably a good one as it creates base-line/launch pad off empirical data - We know that DJF is likely ( intuitively ) to be above normal... barring a weird 2015 Feb I wonder if the -AO summer maginally turns into a +AO winter ...

Let's do a sub-forum contest ... Someone throw up at thread, and everyone that cares enough can put up some numbers - maybe Brian or someone can lock posts once they are submitted? Whatever ... prolly not necessary, as we'll know who posted what... I'd say +3.3 ... which should accommodate ( the base-line propensity for above normal + the blocking AO summer buckling early bow shots post the 15th )/2

The other option is poke it and run ...

64 outside is above the normal low. Funny. It's an acclimation thing ... I suspect. A lot of overages on cool descriptions coming

Home stations keyed into Wunder down 'round deez parts are mid 80s ... Dps... 57 to 61... It's certainly subjectively lowering the HI's but ... but we're objectively heading for above normal despite yesterday's cfropa - This is could be how August behaves ... sort of genetically not having fallen far from the 2019 summer weather genetic tree. The color of this summer's eyes are +3 or +5 ... and it'll just find a way to get there. Fun metaphors aside ... I am noticing the CDC PNA and negative and the CPC variation is also fallen ... even though that tele is almost in-germane at this time of year. But the negative NAO was more east based and is neutralizing ...and that may be more telling that the correction in the GFS trough sag is plausible - yet again... I'm also noticing the LIs are modeled to tank regionally already by tomorrow so... 26 C in the T1 (980 SIGMA) with -4 LI ...prooobably signals more humidity lurks by Sat.

The Yankee fans would say ... "Too bad that's not Fenway ... with the Red Sox IN it"

I happened to step to a large picture window here at the office in Shrewbury as that warned cell was slipping past ... four miles south of this location at most, and was lucky enough to catch a CG that did that exact same "branching" That cell was fantastically proficient with CG of all types, btw. There were countless CGs. ... overlapping at times as they descended from different origins of the over hanging storm cloud structures... Some of the strokes were singular bolts with the typical kinks here and there, but would pulse as many as three times. Then... within a moment later, ...one like that above with the branching. Those did not pulse however. Just bright and instantaneous... I'm wondering if that's polarity of the distroke ... ? Not sure ...but I did notice that the branched distroke CG types were not pulsers.. The single bolts were fantastic blinkers though.

No idea who Ryan Sutter is ... or what his creds are in the field of operational Meteorology, but ... that chart sequence that was ferreted out of the "Twits-sphere" does echo these sentiments I made to Brian yesterday, "but, the gfs in particular ..that model has been attempting to februate the pattern the whole way and here we are with departures... It seems heat for whatever reason, is doubling back in spite of the PNAP dent in the east. .." It's been odd - the last heat wave really did not come via a classic circulation construct over mid latitude of N/A ... And this secondary sort of "emergent" tendency to succeed heat despite the heat-crippled isohypsotic layout has been a recurrent theme. The bigger heat wave from 10 or so day prior, that one had a bit more 'ridged' look to it, but even it left some to be desired... I don't know how long that behavior of "over achieving warmth relative to the structure of the flow" is going to persist, but... it seems to be a trend.. That sequenced charting by Ryan above isn't a surprise as it seems the models are off to the same antic of figuring out how to get AN with a cooler look. It's funny how these emergent complexions seems to take place ... One really can't accurately get a sense of the sensible weather ... without understanding/considering these emergent trends that are ..more like synergistic -

I warned people last week ... not that it matters - wasn't like it could be stopped. But the models could not have been more clear about sending that terminating planetary wave event ( waa off Europe's heat wave) right over those lat/lons...

yeah...and I realize we're just speakin in jest anyway. but, the gfs in particular ..that model has been attempting to februate the pattern the whole way and here we are with departures... It seems heat for whatever reason, is doubling back in spite of the PNAP dent in the east.

"shocked" ... heh - nothing shocks me in this thing. geez, most climate models have been underdone... throwin' another +4 or +5er up there doesn't seem as hard to me anyway...

Deniers deny because they can. That simple. If a person is standing on a train track and there is a one-eyed headlight monster roaring and rumbling metallic horn blowin' warnings at them ...they'll be less apt to deny how standing on said tracks would be detriment to their well-being... The problem with Human response to this crisis ...particularly as it relates to the slowness and/or stopping the denying "idiocracy" ... we simply cannot hear, see, touch, smell, or feel AGW or GW or whatever comfortable or uncomfortable euphemism there is that labels what's going on with the planet. When that happens, the denying will stop. But for the interim... it's not in a guy's living room... It's not stopping them from driving to work. Taking their kids to Soccer. Going on that family vacation... sitting around and opening presents on Christmas morning ( if that's your bag...). All there is are dire warnings that attack the ability to engage in all that... A human being... which billions of create this thing we call Humanity ... never react to warnings. They only agree to them in principle. What resonates is pain - it has to register as an inconvenience to the corporeal senses... That's perhaps an evolutionary catch-22 ( as a digression...) but, we have evolved now the ability and ingenuity to improve survival chances ...beyond ecological balance.... Which Terra-forms this world whether we are intending to or not... and...more likely toward a realm that is no longer going to sustain those same advancements. That's the C-2-2 We are capable of these advances... but the capacity to predict and anticipate consequence for action has not kept pace with the powers of ingenuity. In the mean time, it's a nice summer day out there ...and that's the validation for the warnings - good luck.

Firstly, I'm not sure the social-media community in this particular web destination really IS of the 'wanting/wishing' ilk ... I'll just expand on that a little more... but it was really a 'just in caser' Imho, should 2019 somehow by excruciating number crunching ( less than obviously ) fall short of 2012 ... was it really worth all the effort and writing...and annotated graphs and monitoring and ..well, basically obsession? We are not "making sure that happens" - by plying that effort. I can understand statistical accuracy but I wonder if the real motivation for doing so lurks behind that excuse, because the bigger, longer term consequence of what the world faces is so dire right now that to do so ...could not be any more futile. If it falls short, nothing's different. Why then? The longer vision, we're still f*!&ed folks. As far as that article... There's a lot of complexity that is not really discussed in that... In a general scope and concept it's not "un-clad" exactly ...But, there are ... synergistic effects that are 'emergent properties' and aren't really predictable... More over, those can have secondary ...tertiary spontaneities too... The blocking idea can come from other sources: First, ... extinguishing planetary wave/dispersion into higher altitudes. Think of it as where warm advection plumes go to die. The vagaries of R-wave undulations over time, can create episodes where/when warm fluxes cause/contribute to tropospheric blocking .. These are ephemeral in nature... If they persist ( causally ) it's the underpinning pattern that's supporting it.. The NAO domain is a good teleconnector to exemplify this.. It can fluctuate at intraweekly time scales because of this sort of transient phenomenon... And is why seasonal predictions for that teleconnector - heh... good luck. Second ... blocking anywhere from that can happen in any era. Third, ... it is not abundantly clear that GW would in fact promote more of that to happen, because ... it's all still based upon gradients. Without gradients...no air movement exists at all. From that very fundamental requirement of physics, working together with gravity over a curved surface... without the first initial requirement of changing PV=NRT from one point to another...not of this, in fact, this conversation, can happen.... Why is that important? Beyond the obvious ... the arctic also is said to be differentiating warmer/faster than everywhere else... Is that true in the middle troposphere? If so... than the gradient is not necessary increasing because of GW... but, I suspect it is anyway... The arctic is just trying to catch up ...and in the interim ...we are witnessing extraordinary jet speed anomalies and have been now over the recent decades. Flights between NY and London...also across the expanse of the Pacific have registered historically fast ground-based velocity speeds in that time. This is happening because the warmer equator/sub-tropical latitudes are storing more water vapor ( concomitant with the GW ...) and fiddling with the math ... that is keeping heights slightly elevated; pressing ( as it were) against seasonal nadirs in the winter. Even if they are warming...they are not warming fast enough to compensate for the ambient steepening of that gradient that exists between ~ 35N and the 60 N girdle around the hemisphere. This creates the hurried velocity saturation being observed... Lastly ... folks are forgetting that we are still moving through the 11, 22 and 300 year temporal super-position of the Max(min) solar. Those times have been correlated strongly with -AO tendencies... That makes it incredible difficult to untangle 'how much' of blocking is a result of warming arctic ( as it relates to GW ) - vs how much was destined to take place as this solar expectation has arrived and we transpire through... I suspect like everything...there's shared forcing there... ** The gulf stream stuff and the AMOC - that's a whole 'nother ball of wax. The warming in the previous ... probably going back to the early 1980s is when it really started... has been adding fresh water to the surface of the Atlantic... That's been accelerating particularly in the latter half of that multi-decadal time span. At some critical threshold the specific gravity has changed too much...and the buoyancy gained in the aqueous saline waters (at a given temperature).. slows and/or can stops the sinking water process... No sink = no drawing surface water N = break down of the Gulf Stream. This was theorized back then, too... We are ( more likely so ) now seeing this being measured in the environment... Altering the transport of warm surface waters to higher latitudes certainly would effect circulation tendencies through the various meteorological circuitry over time...and time being a variable in climate - there we go... It's a mind boggling array of countermanding forces and whatever is left after canceling out ...dictates the systemic character.

I haven't looked that closely at the synopsis of the day this morning ... but did glance at SPC's 'Slight" for the M/A and wondered how being further away from that factor, they would ( I guess? ) go with CAPE genesis... interesting -

If folks are interested in other evidences abroad... I am sure there are more, but this article out on Phys.org's Earth Science portal related to United Kingdom ... https://phys.org/news/2019-07-scientists-warmest-uk-years.html

It seems there's an underpinning 'agenda' to keep this year elevated above 2012 ... I guess for the sake of records? I'm curious because I'm not sure why we are so preoccupied by finite distinctions and what those mean to specific records, when the specter of what's happening over the last 20 years is far more telling. I would certainly hope that no one is coveting or even abstractly taking comfort in a acre less melt if it comes to that... In any case, last week I mentioned that the heat wave in western Europe was modeled to plausibly affect Greenland and now ..headlines to that effect are indeed foisted. Granted CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/31/europe/greenland-heatwave-climate-crisis-intl/index.html , ... tends to spin toward aggrandizing in any attempt toward ratings that turn the gears of their media-profit-machine ... we'll just have to see if corroboration surfaces ... I believe some acceleration is likely though. The deep tropospheric heat anomaly effectively severed, formulated a high latitude blocking node ...and that feature has since been retrograding toward Greenland. Still carrying along with it actual warm thicknesses within the anomalously tall H500 isohypsotic surfaces - in other words...a balloon of warm rich ice-sheet melting air - I was wondering if this may enhance the seasonal melt rate. Seems to be at least according to CNN's dystopian formula - The question is, if so ... does any of this also effect an acceleration of ice loss in the total arctic?

Hartford was in line as of three days ago.

Catching up in 90 days as well

Boston too

The conjecture in here is akin to water cooler speculation ... but still, we can't really draw conclusions that way. Addiction would have to be science per a particular circumstance before approaching those judgments. Like,... is it even possible that iPhone or Android or whatever the distraction, is capable of countermanding a million years of mother instincts with their kids. I know that phone "addiction" is unsavory to observe and embarrassing ( really ) to think about, but that should still seem unlikely. This is not the same insidious scenario as a couple of heroin users strung out and stooped over in the front seat of a minivan while their three-year-old is square mouthed crying in the back seat ... and the cops trying to figure out how in the hell Humanity ever arrived to that particular point in time ... It's a phone... It didn't 'cause' the mother/father/parent to execute the three to four complete body motions required to securely lock a child in a car on a high sun hot day. The parent did that - is it possible... ? Of course...but that total scenario is less than likely.

- instrumentation? what's at stake? We know that no instrument is exact - that's just quantum physical limitation ... That's one way to look at it. Yeah yeah.. you're talking about bigger errors than decimals (suspecting...) But why exactly does it matter in the present conversation? Frankly, if a given site is off, isn't it ( most likely ) off by a consistent amount? Just correct for that amount. I mean obviously it's better to have a given site calibrated to some acceptable standard for error, but, ...since we don't live in a perfect world - not sure why it matters if Boston is 97 when it's really 95.8 on a hot day ... or whatever. What is gained back by it not quite being as hot by what ultimately is an in-germane amount. It just seems a lot of energy (pun) is being applied to this as of late and it's crushingly obsessing It's warm It's warmer than normal It's probably in some small part GW attributed ... but mostly just the pattern we are in... Whittling down a site from 97.6 to 95.9 doesn't alter the essence and significance of these statements. Hm. I guess it depends on the application - I certainly wouldn't want my physician to be so cavalier with my pace-maker settings, huh haha.

There might also be CV activity to follow over the next week ... The MJO is weak but circuiting through the right side of the Wheeler ... and as typical with those wave spaces, the 200 mb velocity potential not as negative ... in fact, modestly positive between the west coast of Africa and 55W. As of the 27th the 200 and 850 mb vector analysis' had modestly hostile/sheer orientation. Today being the 30th...that's a fair amount of time to have changed those metrics. I'm not sure what those are now, but... SSTs/integral heat content is nearing apex, and given to the MJO and those velocity potentials ...those stress mitigators may be lessening here. Meanwhile, a decent cyclonic momentum has recently been ejected and presently is wsw of the CV Islands. It's broad and needs a lot of work ... Saharan air/dust appears for the time being to behave in it's climate zone N of that area. Just in the off chance ... I gotta say...with the AA structure/bias to the hemispheric circulation we are observing as a persistence this summer season... that doesn't really probabilistically/intuitively lend to the notion that this is a good season to carry a TC 3,500 K miles west. For 'cane enthusiasts ... you want more longitudinal flow types...with less N-S-N wave undulations and less blocking at mid and high latitudes - the preponderance of the latter indirectly effects said probabilities, because when there is a lot of that, ...we tend to TUTTs and weakness in ridges.

Air quality was terrible this morning... Still and stagnant overnight, we've capped civility's farts with unwanted proficiency - In the days of yore ...this would be pure Earth contamination ... bio-mist-related, which I'm sure came with it's own headaches. But this...? it's ( headaches + mankind's putrescence)/2 = some kind of vagarious journey through wafts of various automobile exhaust types, then the ozone faux freshness its self, followed by something that smells like black mold spores... dumpster fires... just eegh Edit, okay ... there is an AQ alert in addition to the heat alert in effect. it's going to be a miserable one boys and girls.