Typhoon Tip

I wouldn't focused so much on that particular ( bold ) distinction.. Closer reality is the general profligate exploitation of natural resources shared by all technologically advancing cultures on the planet. The problem is a shared one, and is at a species level frankly. It doesn't matter whether the culpability is rooted in Capitalism, Socialism... Communism... or some hybridized distinction in between. All these industrialized societies have a footprint. It's part of the catch-22. Our adaptation is ingenuity - our "Darwinian" edge in the primordial game of life and death. Sorry...but at the rudimentary level, that's origin of whether one and/or the community, survives or does not survive. Evolution doesn't take place in the absence of necessity... Thus, we've never, as a species, been required to consider how advantageous ingenuity would cause a problem. How bad can sharpening a flint stone into a spear head really be? Well, the same underpinning motivation for doing so is really no different than creating nuclear power plants, and guns, and vaccinations...and machinery to extract the fossil fuels to power electrical grids to heat edifices... and on and so on. It's all the same ...You sharpen the spear, you eat meat... you live. That's as far as any attending evolutionary check-and-balance ever came. As a digression... a lot of this strikes me as just the Universe. Basically, nothing in nature is lost or destroyed? Energy and mass ...they are merely converted from one form, into another form. Based upon that simple, fundamental incontrovertible physical truism... we, as a species, cannot be proverbial and/or literally rich ... without some other thing(s) or some other place(s) taking a loss. yeah.... interesting. And doesn't that sound remarkably similar. When we thump over squirrels blithely en route to office jobs, powered along by our Greenhouse exhausting internal combustion engines... to building's that require enormous energy to maintain infrastructure... So that we can sign-off on order forms that appropriate the engineering of thousands of units of some petroleum-based plastic devices that end up on the shores (not even the stores) of the SW Pacific archipelagos ...or worse, in the digestive tracks of unwitting marine animals, mullusks to mammals..., that's us taking ... And, it's entirely academic along that run-on blurb, who and/or what is losing. That string of reasoning sounds "Neo lib -" but ... mm, the other societies take in their own way. It's not really a NeoLiberal this or a Neocon that... or a Russian this or Chinese that... This is a species attitude of entitlement... profligate, over Nature, and one that has always been there ( if one bothers to study basic anthropology ...). It's just that now we've become so hugely proficient, those losses can no longer merely be absorbed by the background -

Well...whomever that forecaster is .. does mention " ...Vigorous short wave ..." among other mechanical arguments so we'll see.. Haven't spent much time on it... I just know from 35 years of New England life and travails that when you are bum-jammed with low clouds because the warm sector can't commit to pure barotropical and tries to just WAA saturate the llvs the whole way... it also ends up far better on paper than in practice. If we start mixing out and the sun shines... heh

mm... starting to also consider the 'put-off bamboozled' routine... Oh, that's when it has a 340 hour heat bomb for the next month's worth of charts and then it finally verifies as 18 hours of high DP/wet 70 on Sept 10 ...

Unless there's pig mechanical forcing ... close this thread down and never return to it -

Wish I had taken a pic during my encounter a couple weeks back... Hard to tell true dimensions just from your picture, but the one I came up upon while riding one of these rail-trail/bike routes, was a bigger. Descriptinos to the local GC said it was the male - several moms with cubs in this part of Mass and they were actually trying to locate the sire.. Yeah... instinct kicked in... internal monologue: 'don't make any sudden moves' ... The skidding of the bike tires drew it's massive head down the path and when he saw me... he lurched across and disappeared into the woods... When did, he briefly spanned the width of the bike path... GC said he's in the neighborhood of 400 to 450 most likely... It was definitely scared of me though...

Yeah...if that D9 buzz saw up in Alaska settles unseasonably south toward the Pac/NW with that -EPO up there forcing that trajectory...that ridge from the front-range to Bermuda ain't gon' be so flat yo' I don't know though... Like I was musing above, we are definitely seeing a dichotomy in the Hemisphere ...with large scale diametrical forces - the models seems to favor one or the other about every three runs... It's making it difficult to get a bead on the 'trend tenors' in the runs. As such I could see that go either way... At the same time ( oy ) one needs to admit the warm signal has been getting more play in the ensemble members et al. tru As is...the Euro oper. has bona fide heat wave isohypsotic layout but ... guts it out and keeps the 20 C's down near Tennessee .... As Bri' and I were mentioning yesterday, could be a work in progress... This could be an autumn with big swings -

It's really fascinating .... We are definitely observing the -AMOC related blocking going on and persisting/pervading the summer pattern at high latitudes, at the same time "suspicion" of GW enhanced seasonal hemispheric heights are attempting to usurp the pattern with heat/higher heights from the south, and we're seeing crazy gradients ...certainly relative to summer typology. ...I really do wonder how this morphs heading into the autumn... The AMOC being the Atlantic, multi-decadal stuff with the SST and the co-relation with the NAO tendencies... The correlation is positive.. they tend to move together. The AMOC is negative, as can be seen with robust tripole signature to the SST distribution, and so on. The propensity of the -NAO(-AO) follows concomitantly - But, we cannot negate and/or completely disavow the GW enhancement on ambient heights, and then consider; there are literally two diametrically opposing signals on a Global scale, and you can see it in the models as they bore out these absurd looking vortexes in central Canada at the same time they've got heights nearing 600 dam as nearby/far N at the Tennessee Valley...

Oh my god -

Yeah I probably did but was intending mean across the three days ... getting there by d9 it may be a work in progress

Actually ...that's a good point Bob... PF and I may be talking right past one another... I was specifically referencing the high temperatures in my original snark - he may have been looking at total diurnals... yeah I don't argue those...not even sure point blank.

Not sure what you mean by semantics ... But Boston's micro-marine climate that stands apart from the vaster expanse of SNE did them in with an ENE wind all day that didn't penetrate much west of down town... In this situation. I can understand ORH being hung up at -2 .... a day like today has huge low-lvl lapse rates/super adiabat written all over it.. . We're going to see big gaps between 1,000 feet compared to more typical warmer lower els with still solar max time of the year, light winds and low RH... BDL... agreed, essentially normal... (actually a head scratcher) These are not mere excuses...? you sort of inadvertently cherry picked data points that would certainly satisfy a cooler interpretation - BDL being the noteworthy exception. I am not making it up... it was hotter than normal at ASH-FIT/BED...to HFD... sites in the triangulum ... Either way, it's not how to run a 'convincing" cool pattern... Which isn't actually denying the cool pattern - not to confuse you. Seriously... I'm implicitly dancing around the freakshow global plague of heat... cool patterns are doing this... ending up average when meddling with the numbers over regional integrals...while warm ones blaze... But that's digression..

D 7/8 are in a synoptic evolution that lands on this appeal for D9... First Day 7 has ballooning height rises punching east across SE Canada... This look is not a cooling one... the lower troposphere is merely (but only slightly) out of phase for driving hot thickness into the height rise back side... As I said, in process of transitioning ...but everyone's got an opinion - guess we'll see... but here at D9...this is just about identical to the pattern that provided last week low/mid grade heat wave...

Right..... nice and dry/low DP cold pattern with above normal temperatures - get used to it folks... 86 here is abv normal - By the way... the Euro operational is clearly in process of transitioning the 6-10 D into a heat wave... May not happen...but it's overcoming/come it's own bias in SE Canada in just three runs to get us +16 C 850s 7-8-9 as it is... We'll see - With that flow flatting on the heals of a ridge tsunamis rolling through the Northern Lakes into eastern Ontario...not a huge leap to tug some western EML/dragon fart

Plus ... these 'synergy' effects ... where the results tends to be more pronounced than the sum of the parts... It's like 'given any excuse' a +1 supporting pattern is 1.4 abv...and so on.. and if it's a +2 pattern boom, 3.3 ... it tends to give back profit plus interest... It goes the other way too... it's just that we don't have the underpinning 'steroid' for cold... We have it for warmth ... It's abstract and easy to deny - out of all empirical evidences that people have the gull to try, that one is admittedly the easiest... Gestalt is difficult at best and more likely impossible to define using physical equations... but, when in GW... warm patterns over produce warmth. In GC ... cool patterns over perform cold. Maybe it's just something silly like ...human finger prints on physical processes having a way of biasing based on what they are observing... Build and equation...doesn't "seem" to match the heat(cold)...so we unconsciously add(detract) decimals... Just being metaphoric to describe ...but who knows. If the pattern "looks like +1" ...we will verify +2 ... I'd put 100$ on that -

Sept has a better chance of being +3 than it does being -3 in deference to the parlance, and most importantly 'circumstances,' of our times. That's why it will be +3 ... call that a 'gut feeling'. Call that just acknowledging the former, which is more than mere gut - it's awareness of where the world is... That's why - Can it be -3... sure... can it be -1 ...absolutely... but along the curve of probabilities... these are less than their mirrored values... There may be climate-operational hybrid tools that specifically do those weekly this and that but ...I've come to find those are not more or less reliable than the type of philosophy used above - at least from what I've seen.

... There'll be hand wavers as they are going over the cliff ... It is possible to 'deny to death' - it's happened throughout history over lesser specters than GW-based environmental apocalypse, and will happen again. Gee-wiz, any time some geezer stances against a pleading EM official, prior to a big hurricane, or a volcano's impending doom... citing past this that through a matter of irrelevant heritage ... that is death. It's not making it easier if/when environmental lobby groups tailor up "official looking" studies and foist 'pseudoscience' for the general consumption of an ill-prepared populous. At no fault of their own, a population that likely isn't critically evaluating these things the right way ( putting it diplomatically). Then, those who are ... or common sense kicks in, and render's whatever content and circumstance as suspect ... ( and this is the part that scratches my head ) that for some reason impugns the entire theoretical framework of GW ? That is just as logically flawed.

thanks

Point being ...it's not verified too well.. some... but not well - I suspect it's just tending toward too much amplitude in the later mid ranges in general - kind of like, as the model's physics get more coupled with finer meshed.. it seems to be slowly converging on a similar error bias as the Euro... Which definitely is too deep with troughs in the D7-10 range over Ontario... It just did it over the last three days...Go back and compare the Euro from three days ago there, and it's some 10 DM shallower as of last night's 00z rendition... And I suspect it flattens even more... Anyway - cheers. we'll see

GEFs have had that at all times all summer...

Oh there are none ...ahahahahaa I'm just havin' fun on lunch... It's yeah it's more likely that's coincident? But, having the PNA sag to -3SD and the NAO attempt +.5 SD is an interesting concurrent tele look when there are operational runs with monolith isohypsotic domes over Maryland ... not considering that and in a vacuum.

oh i know - ...just bustin' balls... Frankly, I hope that we ( finally ) get a front loader winter... Man, ... okay okay, so it's not statistically on point to expect that, but still... 2 in 7 should be at least more active between Thanks giggedy and spendmas...with 1 and 10 down right performing. ...it's the 1:10 that we're due on.. and by that, pack the whole way... Gee say it like that, it's 1:28 I think 2010 is the last big Dec we had but don't quote me... Otherwise... 2007 and 2008 back to back were good front winters ... I think... I know the best I ever experienced was 1995 while living on campus at UML. We had still morning cold fall leaf litter in early November ... Rivulets of ice on the shade side of the Canal where the the water trickles from betwixt the granite blocks... And one afternoon 3:50 or so...with the sun oblique upon the western horizon, the ice still clung at 44 F ... Meanwhile, NYC couldn't get below 60 - kind of a gradient look I suspect... Either way, a week later we had 3-5 mix/snow/zr ... and that was it. No idea what Earth looked like until the super nova thaw of late January, '96... Now THAT is how you run an early loader. Anyway, mix feelings on the prospects for early antics this go. We've seen an astonishingly persistent -AO in summer and it's been readily observable in modeling and verified height nodes retrograding across high latitudes. Stockholm syndrome alone would argue we sail into colder climes with blocks sending cold loads and up against unusually warm west Atlantic/bite waters? Mm mm tasty. Buuuut... the QBO is out of whack with the AO... The two are persistently expressing in the negative correlation ...which by definition should imply it's unstable and can't last - yet it has. ...Four months and counting. I'm almost inclined to believe that concurrent phasing may be a artifice of summer ...and that the hemisphere operates more so in quadrature as opposed to more like seamless integral. I mean it never is...seamless ... but, there's a reason the PNA isn't even correlated to the other indices at CDC, JJA,...because the R-wave construct concomitantly breaks down the standard teleconnector models... So, ...intuitively... it may stand to reason that the +QPB/-AO unlikeliness is merely an accident of season. If so...oy - ...that may not be so good for winter... Because, when the gradients increase the thing winds up again ... the integral tightens, the correlations turn back on... does that mean the -AO flips into the preferred statistical suggestion. Which is positive. I hope not... Because nothing is worse for a weather enthusiast than 30 straight days of inactive dearth in a positive temperature anomaly in winter.

Good thing there's no support for that sort of look in the extended, too -

wonder what'll it be after this ...

Hmeh... It's a nice air cleansed summer day... not much more to me, not when it's going to be 82 or 83 this afternoon. Nice to have a lowered DP though... sure. It's funny how our minds work... First sniff of cooler anything and we rev up of the deep autumn nostalg. Kinda like My Cousin Vinny: " ... It appears to me that you want to skip the arraignment process, go directly to trial, skip that, and get a dismissal," only here ... we want to dismiss summer. It was Aug 4 the other day and I read someone suggesting it's almost over because a swamp maple tinged.. ah..yeeeah I kinda of think of that as fantasizing baseballs return because pitchers and catchers happen to report on Feb 1 - ...nah, unfortunately the season is a long, long, long-long way off... haha. Summers have cool patterns... I'm not even sure this is the "shot across the bow" air mass that heralds the summer's decline, actually ... Unfortunately...having said that ... I have to risk sounding hypocritical though - this is an unusual summer. First of all the QBO has been in a robust westerly phase ...and rather inconsistent with that, the AO has been predominating in the negative phase state. It may be that the instraseasonal linkage/physical processes that do so ... break down in the summer, then reassert in the winter. I'm not sure.. .But,...sustaining +10 to +20 QBO with a mean minus 2 SD AO is not a typical correlation ... not a concurrent phase state I've read about. Supposed to be the other way around... I think perhaps the summer is different than the winter. The QPF phasing may channel through the Ozone dispersion science...which is partial in the SSW stuff... That much I know is winter only - but I'm speculating there. I'm not sure how that parlays as we the summer weeks really do wane... I wonder if the AO flips signs "just in time" for the stronger cold season correlations to kick in? Possible.... Stolen summer ( relative sense ...) followed by muted winter .... Just exactly what everyone wants to read in this particular social media, huh - Kidding, but ... we have less likely hemispheric phase states going on ... so offers some lowered predictability ...

It's an interesting dichot ... We seem to be teetering between hotter than normal summer ( enter reason here...) and a -AO persistence. The latter is/should promote a shot before the shot across the bow at some point over the next three weeks but the former may flip matters unusually far in the other direction. Big swings.