Typhoon Tip

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

The problem with this discussion for me ( considering you both care and asked for what I think.. heh ) is that you're all wrong... Every one of yaz - It's not +PNA this or -NAO that ... or +EPO this or that... Those are scalar values that don't mean shit. ( I know y'all know this but it doesn't hurt to remind - ) It's the modulation of those indexes that matters, because when they are in modality ...that means there is mass changing in domain spaces = correction and restoring. That's your event(s). This is how it works, at all scales and dimensions. We just use +PNA and NAO and AO because they are planetary in scale/dimension so they are more identifiable/forcing as far as necessity for said correction/restoring event(s). Truth be told, you could teleconnect cool air over a sun-warming ( mode change at the surface) bubble as likely to cause a cumulus cloud and nail the prediction based off that micro teleconnector. By the way ... -EPO is bad for us on its own. There needs to be that lag correlation with the negative phase states of the EPO ...where the block collapses ( usually within a 3 to 5 day period), and as it does it descends in latitude and relays into a +PNAP orientation with western N/A ridge and concomitant eastern trough evolution - again...that sets into motion a restoration event and usually given the -EPO relay into + PNAP it's going to be a cold oriented system. -EPOs that don't relay don't do as much for us because the natural R-wave count/spatial layout usually rolls up ridging along the eastern Seaboard. But... through it all, guess what is consistent? The NON-consistency of the modes ... That is a description above of a changing hemispheric quadrature. Static indices in general are not good. Once a +PNA is in place and non modulating... well, just look at the 12z Euro. It has a shallow amplitude +PNA that is unchanging and so the D4 looks like it was mapped on D10 ... BOOOORRRRRINNNnnng

What part of the snow expectations in SNE require your image be interpreted as a failure in the first place ? good luck their zippy lol No, you got ur facts turned around. That's an epic success. J/k, I get the troll effort -

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

See .... ? Snow88 and Greg love each other -

Really ? I didn't see that - I counted 4.5 S/W's all doing the same damn thing. Skipping off the southern heights like rocks off a pond ... skirting through the Maritimes as smeared out wind shifts for us.

Yet...this air mass rolls right on out and we bobble-headingly saucer eye at how despite it's present cold magnitude it could so blithely and wrongly become 32.5 upon the ensuing rain and wind ... Nice -ooh rah for the cold

He asked me as well... Did you help the guy ?

Yeah, preaching to the choir for me ... I don't think this winter is going to be very dictated/forced by ENSO ... I think the multi-decadal polarward index, which is in descent and I believe flipped negative, probably is more evidenced at more times than not, as being weighty in influence/proxy on the flow constructs. More N/stream ..buuuuuuut, there's that expanded HC stuff that is presently papered/scienced and gathering recognition to contend with. Namely, that GW shit ain't going away, and the expanded tropical/sub-tropical belt into the lower Ferrel Cell latitudes, and the concomitant speeding up the flow/gradient saturation stuff... We'll just have to cross those bridges as the they come. I'm not sure what the means to be honest. I don't think it means "no" or even lower snow... I suspect - intuitively - it more effects the style of delivery. Maybe fast events ...shearing and WAA events.. "nickle and dime" accounting... Icers? ...things of that nature, but perhaps doing okay in the aggregate. Bombs are still possible but the days of cutting them off and Fuki Wara S of ISP may be absent. .... OR, yup - we have to be open to the possibility that the flow speed/gradient might mitigate, too. A matter of amounts in that case. Anyway, the cold early Novie and the statistical relationship you bring up, strikes me as consistent with those years that had more -EPO (NAO) type tendencies.

Oh that. I forgot. Right. No. I didn't get involved in anything he was working on - you mean James from Cape Cod? Nah, my thing began years ago... I put it down for along while. Few years actually. Then suffered a bout of " professional ostracizing, " ( heh ) and used the year off to really focus and finish it up. So it is what it is... But as far as James, I vaguely do recall now him asking me but nothing ever came of it.

Those numbers are harder to get to then their scalar values might immediately suggest, too ( I know you know that...just sayn' ) Makes me wonder how we could also not have any snow - hahaha. Man, that's beautiful - I mean, considering that November is a seasonally deep enough month that minus f'n 6 anything in temps should be kissed more kindly with the former.

Huh... not sure what you mean?

Yeah... I don't know why the NAM 'oblongs' the low west to east like that ... "dumb-belling" as you say. You think that's real..? Thing is, the 00z Euro looked like it bumped E too so I'm wondering if we should be tossing that... Either way, the circulation is broad, so... NAM error or not, it may be large enough to get bands rotated into central and eastern areas even in an east position. Btw, I was just looking at the FOUS grid in ALB, and I think those T1 to T2 sounding profiles there probably are jammed into central Mass ...Worcester Hills and maybe western Middlesex. I don't think Logans is very good to use because that 05/04 wind direction at 30 kts is mostly likely contaminating the lower thickness with marine - Plus, the QPF clown maps really want to flip the NW arc to salmon as it is, and given to the notion that the lowest levels probably are even colder than even the higher resolution runs have it ( by a tick or two ) I think lends some to a freezing potential in the interior. we'll see I guess.

Back to the weather... ( sorry ) Now we got a sneaky kind of separate error ( maybe ) showing up. I noticed the Euro's detailed surface low track bumped E a bit on the 00z cycle. The 06z Good-For-Shit model also did that... Now, the 12z NAM also has it's surface low wobbling pretty far E of Cape Cod when passing our latitudes here in SNE. Meanwhile, it's pummeling eastern half with terminating CCB rains and [ probably ] IP/zr rain mixed inland. The problem with that is that we might actually be looking at a late correct east, over all, and since the NAM typically expands west Atlantic cyclone influence too far W/N, it's 12z QPF could very well be vastly overdone ... That's probably going to be true for this particular Not-Achieving-Model, anyway, and could be considered a separate matter. Or, it's all noise and the low will bump back west here.

Breakfast mushrooms for Tip ? WTF Lol - hahaha.... One should read that with a soup-con of tongue-in-cheek, cynical incredulity, btw It's more dark humor, which never conveys too well in writing. It's snark not intended to offend by the way... Scott get's what I mean. Not to be dishonest by implication, hey ...I engage in the time waste. I have written a novel, currently in pre-press at a publishing house ...contracted and the whole work. I have a slow era at my job these days, which is stable - I should be using this opportunity to start a new writing project, and continue. But I'm stuck in a complacency rut ( of sorts..) and don't have any ideas - other than taking pot-shots at cultural observation, that is... But, I spend far too much time involved in here - no question - when the better valor of my energies would probably find better virtue elsewhere. I mean ...no offence, really. There's nothing wrong with engaging in this sort of "vapidity" - sometimes we need a break and it's a good diversion, and all that. But, spending too much time ... in any social media platform, is a problem in society in general to be honest. But that's a separate subject matter for a different forum-ilk.

mm... That's not the good season, imho. The good season is when the season f'n gets good. This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh. But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices. Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future. Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water. 90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. No washing machines... No dryers. No toasters. No refrigerators. No lights. Most likely ...no home heating for the majority. No phones. No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon. No big medicine or pharma... Each one of those "No xxx" is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too. Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these conceits of technology, and the assumptions and entitlements that come with it all.

Nah ... this thing is challenging one's patience in not believing there isn't some kind of unforeseeable agency at work, deliberately doing this shit just to f with people - We're headed for a 32.1er ...undoubtedly, after NWS' has committed to advisory ice. That way, the idea of this being a colder lowest level type of event verifies, all right ... right into meaninglessness. Then, we go into thirteen days of 0 interesting anything despite previous vagaries of the models hinting hope. Also, engineered deliberately to look like there were going to be chances. It's like said agent couldn't just stop at being douchebag with this nearer termed, big bag of wave interference waste of time synoptics.. It couldn't withstand the temptation to really rip sore butts by then summarily removing any events from the deeper vision too. Well, hell... at least I won't have to suffer the indignity of having it snow prodigiously 'just because' I'm leaving town over Thanksgiving. Kidding of course, but that was a particularly irritatingly boring overnight series of operational runs imho. Oy. Altho, the mean of the EPS seemed a little more encouraging I suppose. But as I didn't/don't see that product's polar-stereo graphic mean, so I'm not sure where it's setting up blocking nodes - if any. Just the free blend that TT offers up looked like a slightly amped PNAP for the conus... If so, that should average S/W frequency and at least cold air in reach. But other than that.. tough series of charts for storm/entertainment enthusiasts to click through. Yuck.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Yeah Scott that was an interesting double December 96 and 97 back whence. The 97 Dec 23 event really sticks out for me, because I had sent off an email to Leonard - whom I was interning with at the time - warning him that the ETA profiles combined with the synoptics supported more white - one of those synoptic params was the clear sky the night before, which "capped" the cold when the dense cirrus came in at dawn... We were radiated down to 19 F, and that was prior to forecast for wet snow/rain, with zero llv WAA penetration - uh... no. Sorry. Tiny flakes so dense you couldn't breath and 6" in one hour, book ended with three hours of 2 to 3" per hour on either end, and we just got literally hammered to 16" in Acton in like 5 hours flat. I'd never seen that from anything synoptic... and didn't see anything like that until Dec 2005, when I got 7" out of one hour in that one. ... digress... But the Dec 23 1997 system was so anomalously off the charts - I don't know what to say // talking 1-3" of wet snow in Methuen and they ended up Jack potting 23" or something with two consecutive hours of 7" - and the snow was closer to powder, too. I just don't know how that scale and degree of bust is even possible, even by 1997 modeling standards that' buffoonery -

Well I can tell you that Novie 24 foot of blue is for real cuz I'm going out of town for the whole week... Prolly pack about three of those f'ers in there, while I'm tucked away abroad

Yeah... fwiw - the Euro's quasi zonal vibe doesn't really jive too well with the cross-guidance tele/ensemble mean. Not that the GEF's derivatives ever mean anything to the operational Euro... but, considering the EPS DOES jive with the GEFs tele's, that makes me linger over the idea that the Euro's just being a douche-bag

Man..the more I look at that, that's bizarre just based on my own experience, seeing the operational run be crucially flatter out west with the ridge comparing to it's ensemble mean. Usually it's the other way around .. huh

Does doesn't it ... I'll also add ( for how little it's worth ...) every GEFs member has some form or another of an eastern amplitude/coastal storm on the 12z cycle, D's 8-9-10. I find that interesting... The operational version just happens to be one of the farthest east and more blase solutions -

I don't think the Euro got that memo about the week of Thanksgiving - well...maybe it's not terrible at mid latitudes. But the flow seems kinda flat.

Boy ..I'll tell ya. It's too bad the NAM were not a more dependable guidance source beyond ... 10 minutes, because this is a truly nasty extrapolation for N-W of HFD-PVD-BOS: FOUS61 KWNO 151200 OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z NOV 15 19 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 ALB//662825 -1116 222112 39009799 BTV//765418 06916 192011 31999595 06000574828 02117 202711 41049700 06000756225 03220 172313 34019688 12000804318 01924 232915 41019598 12002984611 04724 213213 30009386 18000592315 -5430 293617 37979190 18003641609 -7431 323311 24898484 24000531019 -1231 350212 37919291 24000641615 -6731 363206 28888884 30000391230 00229 350109 39969295 30000631829 -2430 363304 34928990 36000421236 -0127 340211 42959498 36000812340 -0427 370206 37919295 42000651151 00326 330308 42929600 42000811653 00324 341204 39909597 48000621749 -1124 300307 44929800 48000572449 00722 321205 41919799 54000402251 -0621 240705 46009801 54000492344 00922 261203 43999900 60000793254 02217 190609 49000003 60000462143 -0619 211206 47990003 BOS//603122 00616 232514 40020099 LGA//542423 00417 242707 44030200 06000432824 -1116 182317 44070201 06000462124 -0315 222409 48070402 12000543636 02916 202817 44059801 12000502635 00415 232911 49070103 18000693415 04226 253423 40009398 18000693630 -1017 253616 46029701 24000500817 -0730 313517 38939492 24000501225 -0529 300218 45979501 30000361124 -2329 323612 40999394 30000310935 -1329 310416 44009500 36000441639 00128 330213 43009498 36000401147 -0728 310416 46009400 42000621744 00226 310414 44999500 42000531857 -2022 280418 46999602 48000771943 -0924 290618 46009502 48000722457 -0321 250420 49999805 54000772364 00824 240720 47049703 54000796471 00308 190422 51020005 60000888565 -0416 180726 51050004 60011959566 -3005 130320 53020504 PHL//572239 00112 252906 46030302 IPT//772119 01115 262407 43980000 06000422134 -1513 232706 50070503 06000512118 -0415 232606 46030201 12000551435 00919 243111 50060404 12000753625 -2215 253415 46019900 18000762239 -0516 250116 49010003 18000863523 -0819 293613 44989300 24000723236 01121 290420 47009502 24000561026 00121 320213 43949501 30000331334 -1827 290519 47009603 30000281129 -1124 320509 43999400 36000421549 -0125 290418 48009604 36000321637 -1123 310410 44989402 42000583457 -3419 260420 49989705 42000331746 00921 290609 45969802 48000723765 -1714 220320 51990006 48000383052 -0419 260709 46969804 54000807667 -1204 160422 53000306 54000562942 -1516 190807 50010005 60025979262 -2005 110420 53011004 60000703240 02115 160509 51000005 Look at the lower left series of numbers... for Philadelphia. Down there, in the mid-Atlantic, and the lowest T1 temperature is 34 F with winds 20 kts out of the NE. That's translating up the coastal plain into SNE where it's probably 30 to 32 and ice. The other thing ... unrelated to that, is the surf? This thing is so so at mid levels, but the models are really maximizing the mechanics of the negative tilting and helping to core this sucker down pretty deep relative to those 500 mb typology. I mean into the 980s mb isn't too shabby, and with a big high retreating, we end up with an impressive gradient that is approaching from the S. That means it's long shore fetch and probably there are big swells associated. What's the tide chart like. I know there's a spring tide scheduled the week of T-giggedy... But that looks like splash over potential either way. Hey man, for storm enthusiasts, it's all we got, but it's got some potential to be a multi-facet moderate impact Nor'easter. We could end up with noodles mixed with zrain falling into 31.8 F interior surface layer. That'd be neat.