Typhoon Tip

Meh... I'm not overly convinced the summer is any more demonstratively verifying above normal than it already has... Yeah...I suppose a plausible defining difference maker would be a bigger heat wave event toward the 18th - the 24th or something... somewhere in there it seems timed right if I'm not clapping my hands on the wrong part of the model-song syncopation. .. . But excluding that, ... nothing's changed in the models looking at the present trends ( last 5 days worth..) Said trend is micro cosm of the summer as a whole... 2 days of amazing heat...folllowed by 2 days of modeling that looks like mid autumn bullies in. The models have an usually strong gradient along the 50th parallel ... for summer, that's a certainty. So every time that ribbon of westerlies sinks a little... dramatic difference. At least based upon my 40 years of sentience in the field, both existential and as a horrible weather forecaster... Be that as it may, we don't typically see such strong northern stream flows ribbon'ed along that latitude, with 530 dm vortex cores bowling along while running 594 to 500 dm ridging bombs from southern California to Bermuda depending on model run... And that's been happening since April ...for all intents and purposes... And, that is going on in the models now... So, based on that consistent behavior, and then matching it with the +2 to +5 verification... I figure as a better I'd put my money down that despite whatever model depiction one 'wants' to see happen, ...and any following hugely convincing statements are cobbled together to support those... we'll probably end up +2 to +5 ... Pick how we get there...

You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012 comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually -

I completely agree with this bold section... I started ranting about this very same 'ENSO muting effect of AN sea and air' ( ... related to GW or not...) years ago actually. To paraphrase/re-iterate .. the recent record breaking El Nino ( 4 years back at this point ...) precipitated comparatively weak Global impacts. Known correlations were startlingly pallid in some cases, ... moderate impact at most in others. There were papers written and submitted that described this - though I can't dig them up from here at the moment. This will never sink in apparently ... P.H.D.'s blankly look back and blink twice when you tell them this. GRADIENT without it... it's all meaningless. We can't just say SST are above normal in some scalar sense of it, and assume shit. Means nothing when there's no SINK for the heat source... If everything is warm... there is no flow of thermal energy mechanics ... nothing is responding ... there's no momentum to force diddly squat - so seasonal forecasts for this or that based upon X ENSO ? useless... unless that relative effectiveness can be calculated - Works the same way in the other direction too of course. If every thing is cold... etc... Although, when everything is cold, it apparently takes less differentiation in warmth to get the gears turning... but the underlying physical requirement of gradient is still incontrovertibly necessary in either circumstance. I mean god bless everyone's efforts... but despite how many statistical correlations one uses that are linearly based upon [ X-warm happened in 1955 so Y-cold response ] type circuitry...? I'm just saying the above a different way but that's unfortunately too crude and coarse of an approach ... Won't work... Because the ENSO's correlations of many decades ago... are supplanted by the changing climate - new correlations that are relative to warming world? Where are they? Others on here have mentioned that "they" use some sort of sliding comparative scale ..but I don't see any evidence of that reading papers and NCEP extracts ... You know... it kind of backs us into another assumption I've been toying with... This is one of those rare circumstances where the climate might actually be used to modulate determinism ...Intuitively I should say, ...it's too immensely complex to be discrete. If the whole atmosphere is warmer, +1 SSTs don't mean the same thing as +1 SST happening when the whole atmosphere is cooler, like the middle of last century ...or 300 years ago ...or whenever whence one looks back in time. This isn't complicated... yet from NCEP to the enthusiasts of the anonymous Earth sciences -related social mediasphere... everyone seems to auto-pull their strings based upon whether the ENSO is warm or cool, period. And that's almost meaningless. gradient gradient gradient. Here's a prediction for winter: The increasing propensity for the -AO phase state will increase the polar --> equitorial exertion ... while the equator ( just like last year ...the year before...and has been evidences as steadily increasing since the early 2000s) will pushes back ... usually between 40 N and the rough latitudes of the arctic circle. Gradient saturation (different gradient than ocean-atmospheric ) takes place at those regions... not from ENSO, which is absorbed and castrated by the fact that it's back-of-balls all over S of 40 N now. We'll have a somewhat amplified +PNAP pattern in the means, but one that is conveyed by higher than normal/at times geopotential wind saturation. ... Like, 110 kts at 500 mb in the ambiance with no S/W within thousands of KM.. That kind of velocity poison. This will mean that S/W have to be particularly potent to force cyclogenesis... so the ones that have the ability to do so will by virtue of the speed over all be moving fast as mean storm behavior ( I just know we're going to get a slow moving cut-off monster ... even though this is clad). Anyway, they don't stick around,...so their impacts are relatively limited. There may be cold incursions due to said -AO influence... but I suspect they roll-out quickly too whenever there is minimal excuse of continental chinook/Pac swathing. Everything else comes down to intra-weekly peregrinations. I expect a steady diet of -EPOs... But, the over arching ( sort of ) concern for big winter enthusiasts is the same as last year... Fast global circulation speeds means that there is an intrinsic negative wave interference that is exerting from large to smaller scales. When the flow is fast everywhere, S/W mechanical budget suffers ... because most S/W velocity maxes are in the 70 to 110 kt range... well, if the winds are already humming in that range prior to the arrive of the wave ... the wave gets absorbed... Basic wave -mechanical argument. Worked out beautifully as a predictor last year... I remember specifically warning people last autumn that this speed shearing thing is a problem ...

Heh... If that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolves that way ... that run is HUGELY too low with the heights over southern Canada - typical bias in the Extended.. Whether the nearer term temperature appeal verifies... it's been advertized for days... so hopefully we get a few day out of it

It seems to me ... AGW has been a science evolving over the past 30 years. Papers/publications from reputable sources ( regardless of the one at hand) they actually associate - and this is catch - based upon prior work, often containing citation... and if/when the information becomes common place enough... even those become less required. These people live and breath and obsess about their acumen, which is this subject matter... and they know those studies already. My guess is that somewhere in here .. "References Aalbers, E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., & van den Hurk, B. (2017, April). Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 19, p. 16050). Azhar, G., Mavalankar, D., Amruta, N., Rajiva, A., Dutta, P., Jaiswal, A., Sheffield, P., Knowlton, K., and Hess, J., Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave. PLoS ONE 9(3): e91831. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091831 Baccini, M., Biggeri, A., Accetta, G., Kosatsky, T., Katsouyanni, K., Analitis, A., …& Michelozzi, P. (2008) Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology 19(5) 711-719 Bittner, M., Matthies, E., Dalbokova, D., Menne, B., (2014) Are European countries prepared for the next big heat-wave? European Journal of Public Health 24(4) 615-619 Burt, Stephen and Burt, Tim (2019) Oxford Weather and Climate since 1767. Oxford University Press. Christidis, N., Mitchell, D., Stott, P. A. (2019) Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.6104. Ciavarella, A., Christidis, N., Andrews, M., Groenendijk, M., Rostron, J., Elkington, M., ... & Stott, P. A. (2018). Upgrade of the HadGEM3-A based attribution system to high resolution and a new validation framework for probabilistic event attribution. Weather and climate extremes, 20, 9-32. Ebi, K. L., Teisberg, T. J., Kalkstein, L. S., Robinson, L., & Weiher, R. F. (2004). Heat Watch/ Warning Systems Save Lives: Estimated Costs and Benefits for Philadelphia 1995–98. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85(8), 1067-1074. doi:10.1175/bams-85-8-1067 Fouillet, A., Rey, G., Wagner, V., Laaidi, K., Empereur-Bissonnet, P., Le Tertre, A., ... & Jougla, E. (2008). Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. International journal of epidemiology, 37(2), 309- 317. Guillod, B., Jones, R. G., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Massey, N. R., Mitchell, D. M., ... & Wilson, S. (2017). weather@ home 2: validation of an improved global–regional climate modelling system. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(5), 1849-1872. Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D., and New, M. (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950– 2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201. Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Ştefănescu, S., Yang, S., Wang, X., ... & Bougeault, P. (2010). EC-Earth: a seamless earth-system prediction approach in action. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91(10), 1357-1364. Kew, S. et al, (2019) The exceptional summer heatwave in Southern {Europe} 2017. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 100, S2-S5. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0109.1 Kovats, S. and Hajat, S. (2008) Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review. Annual Review Public Health 29, 41-55 doi: 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843 Lenderink, G., Van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Tank, A. K., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Van Meijgaard, E., De Vries, H., & Beersma, J. J. (2014). Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output. Environmental Research Letters, 9(11), 115008. Luu, L., R. Vautard, P. Yiou, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and G. Lenderink, 2018, Attribution of extreme rainfall events in the South of France using EURO-CORDEX simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi :10.1029/2018GL077807. Mairie de Paris (2015) Adaptation Strategy: Paris Climate & Energy Action Plan Available at: https://api-site.paris.fr/images/76271 Massey, N., Jones, R., Otto, F. E. L., Aina, T., Wilson, S., Murphy, J. M., ... & Allen, M. R. (2015). weather@ home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(690), 1528-1545. McGregor, G. R., Bessemoulin, R., Ebi, K., & Menne, B. (Eds.). (2015). Heatwaves and health: Guidance on warning-system development (Vol. 1142). Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organisation. Retrieved from: http://bit. ly/2NbDx4S Murray, V., & Ebi, K. L. (2012). IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX). Otto, F.E.L., van der Wiel, K., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Philip, S., Kew, S.F., Uhe, P. and Cullen, H. (2017) Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters. Philip, S., Kew, S.F., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Aalbers, E., Vautard, R., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Habets, F. and Singh, R. (2018) Validation of a Rapid Attribution of the May/June 2016 Flood-Inducing, Precipitation in France to Climate Change. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19: 1881-1898. Public Health England (2019). Heatwave plan for England. London, UK, Crown copyright http://bit.ly/31XMamQ Robine, J., Cheung, S., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H. Griffiths, C., Michel, JP., Hermann, FR., (2008) Death toll exceeds 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biologies 331(2) 171-8 doi: 10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001 Schaller, N., A. L. Kay, R. Lamb, N. R. Massey, G.-J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, S. N. Sparrow, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, A. Bowery, S. M. Crooks, C. Huntingford, W. Ingram, R. Jones, T. Legg, J. Miller, J. Skeggs, D. Wallom, S. Wilson & M. R. Allen, 2015, Human influence on climate in the 2014 Southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2927. Seneviratne S.I., T. Corti, E.L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E.B. Jaeger, I. Lehner, B. Orlowsky and A.J. Teuling (2010) Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth Sci. Rev., 99,125–161. Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Jjemba, E., Strachan, K., Spires, M., Kadihasanoglu, A., (2019) Heatwave Guide for Cities. Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR. (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003, Nature, 432, 7017, 610-614, DOI:10.1038/nature03089. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93(4), 485–498. van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M. et al. Climatic Change (2011) 109, 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z Vautard, R., van Oldenborgh, G.-J., Otto, F. E. L., Yiou, P., de Vries, H., van Meijgaard, E., Stepek, A., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Philip, S., Kew, S. F., Costella, C., Singh, R., and C. Tebaldi, 2019: Human influence on European wind storms such as those of January 2018. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 271- 286. Vogel M.M., J. Zscheischler, R. Wartenburger, D. Dee, and S.I. Seneviratne (2019, accepted). Concurrent 2018 hot extremes across Northern Hemisphere due to humaninduced climate change. Earth’s Future 7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001189. Vrac, M., Noël, T. and R. Vautard, 2016: Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because occurrences matter, J. Geophys. Res., 121(10), 5237-5258. " Might just contain a modicum of previous work reliance .. from folks that ... know more than the those skulking about in social-media's anonymous din of vitriol, who just don't like reality. Can it be a reasonable assumption that the authors are merely reliant upon that. No one has to go back to the beginning to prove the existence of hydrogen atoms every time they're required to describe the existence of water.

I wouldn't focused so much on that particular ( bold ) distinction.. Closer reality is the general profligate exploitation of natural resources shared by all technologically advancing cultures on the planet. The problem is a shared one, and is at a species level frankly. It doesn't matter whether the culpability is rooted in Capitalism, Socialism... Communism... or some hybridized distinction in between. All these industrialized societies have a footprint. It's part of the catch-22. Our adaptation is ingenuity - our "Darwinian" edge in the primordial game of life and death. Sorry...but at the rudimentary level, that's origin of whether one and/or the community, survives or does not survive. Evolution doesn't take place in the absence of necessity... Thus, we've never, as a species, been required to consider how advantageous ingenuity would cause a problem. How bad can sharpening a flint stone into a spear head really be? Well, the same underpinning motivation for doing so is really no different than creating nuclear power plants, and guns, and vaccinations...and machinery to extract the fossil fuels to power electrical grids to heat edifices... and on and so on. It's all the same ...You sharpen the spear, you eat meat... you live. That's as far as any attending evolutionary check-and-balance ever came. As a digression... a lot of this strikes me as just the Universe. Basically, nothing in nature is lost or destroyed? Energy and mass ...they are merely converted from one form, into another form. Based upon that simple, fundamental incontrovertible physical truism... we, as a species, cannot be proverbial and/or literally rich ... without some other thing(s) or some other place(s) taking a loss. yeah.... interesting. And doesn't that sound remarkably similar. When we thump over squirrels blithely en route to office jobs, powered along by our Greenhouse exhausting internal combustion engines... to building's that require enormous energy to maintain infrastructure... So that we can sign-off on order forms that appropriate the engineering of thousands of units of some petroleum-based plastic devices that end up on the shores (not even the stores) of the SW Pacific archipelagos ...or worse, in the digestive tracks of unwitting marine animals, mullusks to mammals..., that's us taking ... And, it's entirely academic along that run-on blurb, who and/or what is losing. That string of reasoning sounds "Neo lib -" but ... mm, the other societies take in their own way. It's not really a NeoLiberal this or a Neocon that... or a Russian this or Chinese that... This is a species attitude of entitlement... profligate, over Nature, and one that has always been there ( if one bothers to study basic anthropology ...). It's just that now we've become so hugely proficient, those losses can no longer merely be absorbed by the background -

Well...whomever that forecaster is .. does mention " ...Vigorous short wave ..." among other mechanical arguments so we'll see.. Haven't spent much time on it... I just know from 35 years of New England life and travails that when you are bum-jammed with low clouds because the warm sector can't commit to pure barotropical and tries to just WAA saturate the llvs the whole way... it also ends up far better on paper than in practice. If we start mixing out and the sun shines... heh

mm... starting to also consider the 'put-off bamboozled' routine... Oh, that's when it has a 340 hour heat bomb for the next month's worth of charts and then it finally verifies as 18 hours of high DP/wet 70 on Sept 10 ...

Unless there's pig mechanical forcing ... close this thread down and never return to it -

Wish I had taken a pic during my encounter a couple weeks back... Hard to tell true dimensions just from your picture, but the one I came up upon while riding one of these rail-trail/bike routes, was a bigger. Descriptinos to the local GC said it was the male - several moms with cubs in this part of Mass and they were actually trying to locate the sire.. Yeah... instinct kicked in... internal monologue: 'don't make any sudden moves' ... The skidding of the bike tires drew it's massive head down the path and when he saw me... he lurched across and disappeared into the woods... When did, he briefly spanned the width of the bike path... GC said he's in the neighborhood of 400 to 450 most likely... It was definitely scared of me though...

Yeah...if that D9 buzz saw up in Alaska settles unseasonably south toward the Pac/NW with that -EPO up there forcing that trajectory...that ridge from the front-range to Bermuda ain't gon' be so flat yo' I don't know though... Like I was musing above, we are definitely seeing a dichotomy in the Hemisphere ...with large scale diametrical forces - the models seems to favor one or the other about every three runs... It's making it difficult to get a bead on the 'trend tenors' in the runs. As such I could see that go either way... At the same time ( oy ) one needs to admit the warm signal has been getting more play in the ensemble members et al. tru As is...the Euro oper. has bona fide heat wave isohypsotic layout but ... guts it out and keeps the 20 C's down near Tennessee .... As Bri' and I were mentioning yesterday, could be a work in progress... This could be an autumn with big swings -

It's really fascinating .... We are definitely observing the -AMOC related blocking going on and persisting/pervading the summer pattern at high latitudes, at the same time "suspicion" of GW enhanced seasonal hemispheric heights are attempting to usurp the pattern with heat/higher heights from the south, and we're seeing crazy gradients ...certainly relative to summer typology. ...I really do wonder how this morphs heading into the autumn... The AMOC being the Atlantic, multi-decadal stuff with the SST and the co-relation with the NAO tendencies... The correlation is positive.. they tend to move together. The AMOC is negative, as can be seen with robust tripole signature to the SST distribution, and so on. The propensity of the -NAO(-AO) follows concomitantly - But, we cannot negate and/or completely disavow the GW enhancement on ambient heights, and then consider; there are literally two diametrically opposing signals on a Global scale, and you can see it in the models as they bore out these absurd looking vortexes in central Canada at the same time they've got heights nearing 600 dam as nearby/far N at the Tennessee Valley...

Oh my god -

Yeah I probably did but was intending mean across the three days ... getting there by d9 it may be a work in progress

Actually ...that's a good point Bob... PF and I may be talking right past one another... I was specifically referencing the high temperatures in my original snark - he may have been looking at total diurnals... yeah I don't argue those...not even sure point blank.

Not sure what you mean by semantics ... But Boston's micro-marine climate that stands apart from the vaster expanse of SNE did them in with an ENE wind all day that didn't penetrate much west of down town... In this situation. I can understand ORH being hung up at -2 .... a day like today has huge low-lvl lapse rates/super adiabat written all over it.. . We're going to see big gaps between 1,000 feet compared to more typical warmer lower els with still solar max time of the year, light winds and low RH... BDL... agreed, essentially normal... (actually a head scratcher) These are not mere excuses...? you sort of inadvertently cherry picked data points that would certainly satisfy a cooler interpretation - BDL being the noteworthy exception. I am not making it up... it was hotter than normal at ASH-FIT/BED...to HFD... sites in the triangulum ... Either way, it's not how to run a 'convincing" cool pattern... Which isn't actually denying the cool pattern - not to confuse you. Seriously... I'm implicitly dancing around the freakshow global plague of heat... cool patterns are doing this... ending up average when meddling with the numbers over regional integrals...while warm ones blaze... But that's digression..

D 7/8 are in a synoptic evolution that lands on this appeal for D9... First Day 7 has ballooning height rises punching east across SE Canada... This look is not a cooling one... the lower troposphere is merely (but only slightly) out of phase for driving hot thickness into the height rise back side... As I said, in process of transitioning ...but everyone's got an opinion - guess we'll see... but here at D9...this is just about identical to the pattern that provided last week low/mid grade heat wave...

Right..... nice and dry/low DP cold pattern with above normal temperatures - get used to it folks... 86 here is abv normal - By the way... the Euro operational is clearly in process of transitioning the 6-10 D into a heat wave... May not happen...but it's overcoming/come it's own bias in SE Canada in just three runs to get us +16 C 850s 7-8-9 as it is... We'll see - With that flow flatting on the heals of a ridge tsunamis rolling through the Northern Lakes into eastern Ontario...not a huge leap to tug some western EML/dragon fart

Plus ... these 'synergy' effects ... where the results tends to be more pronounced than the sum of the parts... It's like 'given any excuse' a +1 supporting pattern is 1.4 abv...and so on.. and if it's a +2 pattern boom, 3.3 ... it tends to give back profit plus interest... It goes the other way too... it's just that we don't have the underpinning 'steroid' for cold... We have it for warmth ... It's abstract and easy to deny - out of all empirical evidences that people have the gull to try, that one is admittedly the easiest... Gestalt is difficult at best and more likely impossible to define using physical equations... but, when in GW... warm patterns over produce warmth. In GC ... cool patterns over perform cold. Maybe it's just something silly like ...human finger prints on physical processes having a way of biasing based on what they are observing... Build and equation...doesn't "seem" to match the heat(cold)...so we unconsciously add(detract) decimals... Just being metaphoric to describe ...but who knows. If the pattern "looks like +1" ...we will verify +2 ... I'd put 100$ on that -

Sept has a better chance of being +3 than it does being -3 in deference to the parlance, and most importantly 'circumstances,' of our times. That's why it will be +3 ... call that a 'gut feeling'. Call that just acknowledging the former, which is more than mere gut - it's awareness of where the world is... That's why - Can it be -3... sure... can it be -1 ...absolutely... but along the curve of probabilities... these are less than their mirrored values... There may be climate-operational hybrid tools that specifically do those weekly this and that but ...I've come to find those are not more or less reliable than the type of philosophy used above - at least from what I've seen.

... There'll be hand wavers as they are going over the cliff ... It is possible to 'deny to death' - it's happened throughout history over lesser specters than GW-based environmental apocalypse, and will happen again. Gee-wiz, any time some geezer stances against a pleading EM official, prior to a big hurricane, or a volcano's impending doom... citing past this that through a matter of irrelevant heritage ... that is death. It's not making it easier if/when environmental lobby groups tailor up "official looking" studies and foist 'pseudoscience' for the general consumption of an ill-prepared populous. At no fault of their own, a population that likely isn't critically evaluating these things the right way ( putting it diplomatically). Then, those who are ... or common sense kicks in, and render's whatever content and circumstance as suspect ... ( and this is the part that scratches my head ) that for some reason impugns the entire theoretical framework of GW ? That is just as logically flawed.

thanks

Point being ...it's not verified too well.. some... but not well - I suspect it's just tending toward too much amplitude in the later mid ranges in general - kind of like, as the model's physics get more coupled with finer meshed.. it seems to be slowly converging on a similar error bias as the Euro... Which definitely is too deep with troughs in the D7-10 range over Ontario... It just did it over the last three days...Go back and compare the Euro from three days ago there, and it's some 10 DM shallower as of last night's 00z rendition... And I suspect it flattens even more... Anyway - cheers. we'll see

GEFs have had that at all times all summer...

Oh there are none ...ahahahahaa I'm just havin' fun on lunch... It's yeah it's more likely that's coincident? But, having the PNA sag to -3SD and the NAO attempt +.5 SD is an interesting concurrent tele look when there are operational runs with monolith isohypsotic domes over Maryland ... not considering that and in a vacuum.