Typhoon Tip

Beyond this week... guidance is bizarre looking... There some sort of deep EPO look ...if ephemeral ... with a deep anomaly careening S over/west of the western Canadian cordillera... and the appearance of an elevated(ing) NAO over the western limb of that particular domain space... The concurrence of those two large scale modalities suggests a big fantastic heat bomb from TX to New England... yet, we only see a pallid commitment. Oh the Euro's got some big number potential by D9/10 ...but by limitations of that time range alone...heh... Ah, may just be that we're seeing a snap shot mid way through a pattern change I guess I'll go scratch my brow line with extended perplexing thumbs over why the oper. GFS even exists just so I can 'dim this picture ' further...

Mm... I just wonder to be frank, if folks have been over playing/over anticipating the this "coc" idea for this week... Previous Euro runs never convincingly suppressed the 850 mb thermal layout enough to ( realistically ) buy days of that level of idealism... for one. I mean saying "this week" in any context, is plural. And now the 00z oper. rendition really doesn't at all from where I'm sitting. I mean..excluding yesterday and today... It's got a weak frontalysis/stationary boundary extending PHL to SE of BOS from 48 hours through 120 hours ...admittedly south ... however, there's essentially zippo CAA fields behind... And in fact, we are +14 up near your neck of the woods to +16 in SW CT the whole way. Don't get a two hours of sun from 9 am to 3 pm then - The only way that coc metaphor works out in a that sort of Euro synopsis is via cloud suppressed temperatures ... But that isn't the same deal,.. .and it's actually likely to be humid so that's the ball game. I haven't bothered to look at any GFS genetics... that entire species of model is flat out got me irked - ...on an unrelated note ( sort of ..), it overtly rasps the tops of ridge down too far, using any butterfly flap it can find up stream to do it... and I worry about even the mid range ranges come cold season...when we're trying to assess the real depths and trends for trough amplitude, and what's this thing gonna do...

Funny how it only took 10 days for this to finally get here

Short lived ... new NAM rolls heat back in on Monday. Severe tuesday?

I think there was a diffused additional boundary that kited through here this afternoon... High was 81 at several home stations around town and felt it,....then, it's suddenly early autumn vibe after those gust sprinkles whisked thru - but that's relative to acclimation. I mean it's still 72 right now... When it's been 45 days of 80/66 or more ...gets that way.. Anyway, the sky and air has the radiational vibe to it... DPs are still in the low 50s and with heavy greenery still evapotran ... interesting battle between dew drops at cooler interior/traditionals... Nice warm up persists beyond this...

What's your point? It escapes me - I'm not sure what you are really after.... Are you trying to convince people that: a ... there is not global warming b ... there is global warming, but it is not human activity attributed c ... something else... what?

Well... in any case... I'm sticking with the developing plausibility that we are lacking specific atmospheric responses to underlying SST anomalies ...because the traditional correlations are breaking down due ( most probably ...) to climate change. But all that is actually less than relevant for this year... this year's prognostics of the ENSO appears to fall within the < +1 or > -1 neutrality anyway ... effectively making the question of whether there is a response or not, more likely moot. The AO may be more negative ... this is suggested by the solar nadir resonance stuff... which won't get into ... But, that means that we deal with huge gradients. Fast fast fast flow...at times more quelled to moderate more normal... All that really means is that storms are more sheared and move faster... But in a sort of arithmetic sense... that can also intuit making up for winter storm impacts in the aggregate. More nickle-dime events ... but you know... "nickle" and "dime" are relative distinctions in them selves, because one thing we are not even considering in these seasonal debates and prognostics is the DEFINITE upward empirically proven increase in precipitation quota that's happened in the last 25 years... And that ain't measurement techniques so don't even try that... a 4" mechanical deal in 1990 produces 6" now...just accept that... because the air is - yes according to climate prediction with the change - holding more water vapor. Oh god... ad nauseam..it gets impossible to do this... to do it right,.. you have to include what everyone chastises like an irreverent scorning mob outside of the Ark -

Mm ...I wanna believe in this ... I happened to think you are a talented dude in the "art" of speculative Meteorological sciences ... However, much of my own sentiments ( not saying I'm right, per se...I'm just trying to add some credence here a little) is echoed elsewhere by leading climatologists circuited into the Global sort of Zeitgeist if you will... Take this from Scripps.. "... Most long-range forecast models predicted a potentially drought-ending deluge in California from the climate pattern known as El Niño in winter 2015-16, but the actual precipitation was far less than expected. A National Science Foundation-supported study led by climate scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego offers an explanation why. “Comparing this El Niño to previous strong El Niños, we found big differences in the atmospheric response across the globe, including California,” said Nick Siler, lead author of the study that was published in the Journal of Climate, and a postdoctoral scholar in the research group of co-author Shang-Ping Xie at Scripps. “We found that these differences weren’t all random, but rather were caused by tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies unrelated to El Niño.” " This is what bothers me ... That factor, bold right there... I don't believe is a factor that has gone away? That ... eeee kinda sorta tries to suggest ...we may be crossing a threshold into a new norm. Time will tell.. But this above is precisely what the conclusion I've been coming to ... we lack gradient because the warmer than normal preconditioning, and therefore... didn't seen the responses.. It's only relevant now because ... heh, I don't see how the ENSO going into this year is really going be readily seen as forcing much when we had trouble getting much more than pallid responses from a much more obvious scenario like that. interesting ..but keep in mind; we are talking probabilities? - something(s) can certainly change such that a comparatively weaker signal shows up more... sure... but, even if so, I think the longer termed issue of needing to question the standard correlations needs to be considered.

that's not a bad way to look at it actually ... but at all scales and dimension in the thing. We see +2 ENSO... budda boom budda bing WRONG We seem to see shapes and knee-jerk as a species... but the scalar values tell a different story and hide demons - haha. Looks can be deceiving.. You know, it's still not abundantly clear to me how and how much the SST anomalies are being weighted... If it is more so against the 100 year? ...200 ....500 via reanalysis techniques.. 30-year slide? Even if 30 year, which in practice is more contemporaneously relevant ... the climate appears to be on such a hockey-stick acceleration that even that is dubiously comparative. I mean ...+1 relative to 20 years ago may totally f-up that assumption... we don't know. And AMS is cagey about disseminating paper abstracts - ...or, no one cares and the world's gone mad! which it has anyway ...but I digress...

Well ... the models finally did it... they succeeded in boring out a deep hole in the atmosphere through eastern Ontario... The GFS in particular ... but all have at one time or the other, all summer long, been churning out model runs with autumn vortexes that never panned out... Finally, one is/did... I'm tentatively encouraged by this. First off, someone earlier asserted 'summer's back is broken' - heh... I'd go with strained. It's a fun anecdotal question...one that is wholly subjective and semantic ( so fraught with disagreement potential...), but, it seems to vary from year to year. Some years... heh, the back is always broke... Other years, seems we have to get to the end of September before that seems clad and clear. I'd say odds favor we won't have to be protracted this go... it's just not happened quite yet though. Call it strained... We'll see how that D6-10 pans out... I think we have a shot at an early transition season and possibly an early loaded winter. Not sure how folks judge that one, either... But, I don't consider those recent Thanks giving snow events as really counting much toward that distinction, because it didn't last. By "loaded" we don't mean ... flighty ...we mean loaded. The last time I think we really had that was 2010 but I'm curious what others think... Incidentally, the thanks giving ones I believe were related to the same reason so many other Octobers have witnessed either snow, or...snow supportive cold outbreaks since the year 2000. It's just that early -AO attributed cold incursions ( prior to seasonal pattern orientation ) have been more common in recent decades... So we've observed a propensity for -AO all summer long... one that as of last checked is in the process ( American derived - ) yet again of correcting negative at CPC... The question is... does that extinguish as we head into the autumn. I think it may not ... the Millennial curve of polar region is negative ... *typically landing on AMOC ... and both are solar correlated.. .With the deep nadir from the resonant 11, 22, 300 year stuff... that seems a reasonable first guess that we won't have to pull as many teeth to see -AO ... and also, able to sustain. Speculative... I think we get cool snaps into October and even an early car topper event - ...then, as the hemisphere really cools and the gradient steepens...we'll find out what the winter look will be... What ever it is... it'll probably be faster than a bat leavin' hell -

Just imho but I'm not sure we can really disconnect the state of the hemispheric gradient distribution, from "how" ENSO can trigger/forcing ... You can't. Gradient is the trigger.. without it... no response. Scott is correct ... a warm overall basin elevates the thresholds, beyond which forcing kicks in... because the gradient is too weak... and as such, the mid latitudes/westerlies are not as sensitive to modest ENSO deviations..

Nah. Steve thinks I engage in that provincial bias/ emotional motivation bullshit you guys dance around in here and typical to his generation ... puts words in people's mouth too when faux believes that's happening theres no mode the model ridged. Suck it up

Depends on the biota. Some organisms on the planet benefit from CO2 and in fact need it for life. But yeah .. even for these organisms an over abundance of CO2 becomes toxic… And in fact that equation is extremely complex ...because organisms that require CO2 may be ecologically co-dependent in their environment by organisms for other vital needs that can't have CO2 - in that sense indirectly toxic by association. Fact the matter is there's a delicate balance there ... one that was always there before humanity came along with its hyper-proficient usage of resources of exhaustive consequence, which surpassed that background ability to absorb it - once that happened it became pollution.

Wrong... right off the bat - tried to deny math. C02 is pollution if/when it is sourced from profligate measures... and, said sourcing goes above and beyond mass necessity, and becomes a toxin/detriment to the vitality of the system - to mention, because of said profligate activity. You missed the point... tried to deny.... wrong

Well...be that as it may, the graphical presentation being perhaps a week behind other sources... The dailies depict illustrations that clearly still put 2019 ahead of 2012 as of August 8 from the same source as that graph. one, it will be interesting to see the graph update... heh.. But two, I've annotated and it's pretty clearly obvious ...if said graph is based upon anything resembling these [crude] cartoons... it's just as likely to update still below the 2012 curve..

That's an impressive above normal look to the D6-10 Euro... There's actually some semblance of that sort of heat dome - ridge roll-out from the Midwest lurking in some of these recent operational GFS runs too... But ...prooobably need a couple days to assess the legitimacy of that period of time. The tele's are still in there perennial slumber ... but the NAO... having some minimal correlative usefulness at this time of year, is rising as we near that period... so that may offer a hesitated nod. Either way... the Euro as usual takes a D8 unavoidable extrapolation for big heat on D9 ... and finds a way not to get heat in here on that D9 ... That's bullshit ( relative to this run that is...) Assuming for a moment D7/8 holds... 9/10 go to hell in a correcting evolution.

In spite of all protestations ... the math is incontrovertible - To remove any questionable "A" contribution in AGW... requires removing A's contribution. The instant you try to fabricate any other word, you are illogical and wrong. That cannot be disputed. But excluding that which makes the rest of this futile for a moment... deniers don't even make it clear what they deny... What are you trying to gain by denying? Deniers would have you believe that it would hurt the world, if we stopped polluting the atmosphere? otherwise.... What is their f'ing point! The simple truth is, it can only help if humanity stops the pollution. If there is any question as to whether there is pollution - a far gone scientifically painful truism anyway... You stop and assess. Immoral is what it is... People would quite literally prefer to live in delusions perpetuated by a consensus based upon stuff they want to believe, rather than stuff that actually exists in reality and nature. It's like ... you may not have actually received the Darwin award? But your certainly in the process of walking to the podium to take the trophy.

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'

I for one believe that in the absence of GW ... perpetually ballooning the mid and lower latitudes, we'd be getting harsh winters for the next couple-a decades... I think that ENSO is being muted ...but not entirely - just mitigated by some to-be-determined physically amount ... If it gets sufficiently hot to really differentiate again, more akin to 100+ years ago... fine - go nuts! Otherwise, it's pallid effect on the global circulation may become more commonplace. But we have to think the Earth's atmosphere in the "Hadley cells" ... The tropical/equatorial SST regions that are associated with ENSO and so forth...those are differentiating against the subtropical termination region that flows into the westerlies in the mid latitude winters(s) ( N/S hemi.)... Those then R-wave distribute and there's your forcing mechanics on a larger scale.. But, if that interaction region is being less differentiated ( i.e., gradient reduced) said forcing takes a back-er seat... However, there is still the AO ( and AAO) cold source/domain regions to consider ... Albeit warming, they still deeply differentiate against the whole region S of ~ the 40th parallel(s) ...and that is why the westerlies' cores are screaming... I really think we should get used to this above sort of layout the majority of times until ... further notice/decades... It won't be that way at all times...no, but favored to be... Where we have faster geopotential balanced wind fields and stress imposed from larger to smaller scale wave mechanics... I would strongly suggest tailoring seasonal outlooks around these ideas ...certainly enter them into consideration.

Nope... not likely... The physics is not over stated ... unless you mean something else... if so forget this. Otherwise - Gradient drives the whole thing... period. You have potassium and sodium in your cells ...that provides an electrical potential... that is a gradient. You have gravity that increases from one point to the other ...which is also describe by the sloped curvature tensor of space .. that is a gradient. You have pressure variance in the atmosphere ... created by warm and cool differences from one point/air mass region to the next... that is a gradient. Nature is gradients... The Cosmos is gradients.... The fact that you can read this ...is accessing the electrical potential gradient. IF A travels to B.... ( i.e., gradient) and you have A and A.... A is not traveling to A.... That is what is meant by warm ocean under warm atmosphere... Warm ENSO is based upon 300 years of climatological norms... But the norms are changing... so the "warm" characteristic of the ENSO is ...not as warm, but cannot really be ascertained very readily because it's an acceleration - And so the bevy of known correlations logically must change because of the break-down of those governing environmental relationships. that's what we're talking about... Again, as I stated... if we can use physics to demonstrate gradient exists ... we can bet with higher confidence then/there is when/where we will see a responses in the system, because those responses are in fact precipitated out of the movement from A to B in this context/example.

Meh... I'm not overly convinced the summer is any more demonstratively verifying above normal than it already has... Yeah...I suppose a plausible defining difference maker would be a bigger heat wave event toward the 18th - the 24th or something... somewhere in there it seems timed right if I'm not clapping my hands on the wrong part of the model-song syncopation. .. . But excluding that, ... nothing's changed in the models looking at the present trends ( last 5 days worth..) Said trend is micro cosm of the summer as a whole... 2 days of amazing heat...folllowed by 2 days of modeling that looks like mid autumn bullies in. The models have an usually strong gradient along the 50th parallel ... for summer, that's a certainty. So every time that ribbon of westerlies sinks a little... dramatic difference. At least based upon my 40 years of sentience in the field, both existential and as a horrible weather forecaster... Be that as it may, we don't typically see such strong northern stream flows ribbon'ed along that latitude, with 530 dm vortex cores bowling along while running 594 to 500 dm ridging bombs from southern California to Bermuda depending on model run... And that's been happening since April ...for all intents and purposes... And, that is going on in the models now... So, based on that consistent behavior, and then matching it with the +2 to +5 verification... I figure as a better I'd put my money down that despite whatever model depiction one 'wants' to see happen, ...and any following hugely convincing statements are cobbled together to support those... we'll probably end up +2 to +5 ... Pick how we get there...

You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012 comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually -

I completely agree with this bold section... I started ranting about this very same 'ENSO muting effect of AN sea and air' ( ... related to GW or not...) years ago actually. To paraphrase/re-iterate .. the recent record breaking El Nino ( 4 years back at this point ...) precipitated comparatively weak Global impacts. Known correlations were startlingly pallid in some cases, ... moderate impact at most in others. There were papers written and submitted that described this - though I can't dig them up from here at the moment. This will never sink in apparently ... P.H.D.'s blankly look back and blink twice when you tell them this. GRADIENT without it... it's all meaningless. We can't just say SST are above normal in some scalar sense of it, and assume shit. Means nothing when there's no SINK for the heat source... If everything is warm... there is no flow of thermal energy mechanics ... nothing is responding ... there's no momentum to force diddly squat - so seasonal forecasts for this or that based upon X ENSO ? useless... unless that relative effectiveness can be calculated - Works the same way in the other direction too of course. If every thing is cold... etc... Although, when everything is cold, it apparently takes less differentiation in warmth to get the gears turning... but the underlying physical requirement of gradient is still incontrovertibly necessary in either circumstance. I mean god bless everyone's efforts... but despite how many statistical correlations one uses that are linearly based upon [ X-warm happened in 1955 so Y-cold response ] type circuitry...? I'm just saying the above a different way but that's unfortunately too crude and coarse of an approach ... Won't work... Because the ENSO's correlations of many decades ago... are supplanted by the changing climate - new correlations that are relative to warming world? Where are they? Others on here have mentioned that "they" use some sort of sliding comparative scale ..but I don't see any evidence of that reading papers and NCEP extracts ... You know... it kind of backs us into another assumption I've been toying with... This is one of those rare circumstances where the climate might actually be used to modulate determinism ...Intuitively I should say, ...it's too immensely complex to be discrete. If the whole atmosphere is warmer, +1 SSTs don't mean the same thing as +1 SST happening when the whole atmosphere is cooler, like the middle of last century ...or 300 years ago ...or whenever whence one looks back in time. This isn't complicated... yet from NCEP to the enthusiasts of the anonymous Earth sciences -related social mediasphere... everyone seems to auto-pull their strings based upon whether the ENSO is warm or cool, period. And that's almost meaningless. gradient gradient gradient. Here's a prediction for winter: The increasing propensity for the -AO phase state will increase the polar --> equitorial exertion ... while the equator ( just like last year ...the year before...and has been evidences as steadily increasing since the early 2000s) will pushes back ... usually between 40 N and the rough latitudes of the arctic circle. Gradient saturation (different gradient than ocean-atmospheric ) takes place at those regions... not from ENSO, which is absorbed and castrated by the fact that it's back-of-balls all over S of 40 N now. We'll have a somewhat amplified +PNAP pattern in the means, but one that is conveyed by higher than normal/at times geopotential wind saturation. ... Like, 110 kts at 500 mb in the ambiance with no S/W within thousands of KM.. That kind of velocity poison. This will mean that S/W have to be particularly potent to force cyclogenesis... so the ones that have the ability to do so will by virtue of the speed over all be moving fast as mean storm behavior ( I just know we're going to get a slow moving cut-off monster ... even though this is clad). Anyway, they don't stick around,...so their impacts are relatively limited. There may be cold incursions due to said -AO influence... but I suspect they roll-out quickly too whenever there is minimal excuse of continental chinook/Pac swathing. Everything else comes down to intra-weekly peregrinations. I expect a steady diet of -EPOs... But, the over arching ( sort of ) concern for big winter enthusiasts is the same as last year... Fast global circulation speeds means that there is an intrinsic negative wave interference that is exerting from large to smaller scales. When the flow is fast everywhere, S/W mechanical budget suffers ... because most S/W velocity maxes are in the 70 to 110 kt range... well, if the winds are already humming in that range prior to the arrive of the wave ... the wave gets absorbed... Basic wave -mechanical argument. Worked out beautifully as a predictor last year... I remember specifically warning people last autumn that this speed shearing thing is a problem ...

Heh... If that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolves that way ... that run is HUGELY too low with the heights over southern Canada - typical bias in the Extended.. Whether the nearer term temperature appeal verifies... it's been advertized for days... so hopefully we get a few day out of it

It seems to me ... AGW has been a science evolving over the past 30 years. Papers/publications from reputable sources ( regardless of the one at hand) they actually associate - and this is catch - based upon prior work, often containing citation... and if/when the information becomes common place enough... even those become less required. These people live and breath and obsess about their acumen, which is this subject matter... and they know those studies already. My guess is that somewhere in here .. "References Aalbers, E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., & van den Hurk, B. (2017, April). Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 19, p. 16050). Azhar, G., Mavalankar, D., Amruta, N., Rajiva, A., Dutta, P., Jaiswal, A., Sheffield, P., Knowlton, K., and Hess, J., Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave. 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" Might just contain a modicum of previous work reliance .. from folks that ... know more than the those skulking about in social-media's anonymous din of vitriol, who just don't like reality. Can it be a reasonable assumption that the authors are merely reliant upon that. No one has to go back to the beginning to prove the existence of hydrogen atoms every time they're required to describe the existence of water.