Typhoon Tip

Yeah I'm sure you are in part also noticing that though struggled, what development there has been has been home grown - so to speak. I'm not so sure about the SAL... Is there a source that really calculates that SAL parameter ...as an integral/mitigation ...then compares it to years past? or are we just assuming so ...? It's not a knock.. I mean, in the absence of such a source, we work with what we have. I don't know - I do know that the SAL I've seen has not "looked" very severely pervasive or all that inhibitory. I have seen seasons with worse, ...and frequency out there still abounds ...albeit.. coughing and stuggling as they trundle westward down the CV rail service... Going nuts nearing PR.. Anyway, I think therein is also a problem... I recall when in Met school years ago... TW frequency and vitality were both factorable in TC assessments and theh... there also seems to be a dearth in both frequency and wave robustness ... TW are born do to perturbations over the Alps ( ...according to those academic years...) believe it or not... They then dive S and end up absorbed/rotate around the ambient sub-tropical Saharan ridge, and then move back west underneath within the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough... This leads me to ponder whether the pattern over Europe/Eurasia ( believe it or not...) is indirectly related to why there is that apparent dearth. interesting

Do you have any literature ... preferably links to accredited source work of veracious/reputable form ( to put it nicely...), those that might elucidate/expand more about the bold ( abv) ? I've heard of this longer scaled "hidden" curve elsewhere ... but that, including the [apparent] 11, 22 and 300 year resonant solar min and max temporal/causal hypothesis for climate modulation ...all of it, it's harder to just "google" than one would think it should be. ... man. You know how that goes... heh... , go anywhere close to a search-engine that is accessible to the hoi polloi...and you get this tomb of links to doom's day prophets in a trailer park with a satellite dish and every penny ever possessed put into to a lap-top networked with a fully operational Web-server/os... Oh, they've poached various pieces of out-of-context this and that to cobble together support for the end of the world... replete with illustrations of solar storms so powerful ... flesh incinerates off skeletons right before they crumble to piles of bone where the marrow inside isn't even aware the governing body is dead... Ugh... there shit out there about neutron stars careening through the solar-system ... really? And of course, asteroids boring tunnels clear through the lithosphere and several hundred miles of upper mantle... I mean, yeah - the probability isn't 0... I guess...

Douches roll their eyes... That should be the name of that novel. Or the turn of phrase etched into the headstone of Humanity as it rises over the smoldering aftermath like an ignored passage out of Percy Shelley. Being dramatically licensed there ...sure... but, little do common enthusiast-spheres know ... there has been an uptick in seismology at stations in the interior of the ice cap in recent decades. Cryoseisms are not uncommon, even in stable eras. Increases is /were always expected .. due to warm intrusion into the interior of the ice cap... and on and so forth. So now are empirically demonstrated. But, where does the math and science of sudden climate-change -enforced ice retreat say that will take place in a kindly, mass-distributed friendly morphology - where's that assumption coming from! Some of these in the increasing frequency era, have been startlingly intense, too. One such even neared 4 ( I think it was..) on the RS. The region of the ice cap where these stations reporting are situated ... were not merely experiencing interstitial integrity perturbations... They up and slid many feet laterally... One has to imagine the scene. You are surrounding by two distinguishing environmental features ... with virtually no variance other than those two: glare ice and blue-gray-whale skies ... When you then slide, en masse, twenty ... thirty feet, you don't see that change. Why? There are no 'passing features ' to differentiate that movement. So at first, what were mistaken as mere ice tremors ... it would be like GPS tapped scientists on the shoulder "... umm.. you're not where you're supposed to be." So, catastrophic ice slide events... To say this can't happen? Troglodyte impulsive absurdity, that's what that is... Gravity is a constant... Ice integrity/honey-combing on a mega scale, working together with that ... heh, it's complicated at best trying to assess how a system reacts to an undecillium metric tonnes of destabilized mass over land that's just itching to rebound. But the whole gentle mass-phase exchange from ice to liquid ( trace to evaporation ) model, ... spanning enough time for Bambi governmental naivete to respond and adapt? Okay ... that might happen too. Missoula Floods leap to mind.. You know what it all strikes me as.... I remember this conversation with a doctorate of Meteorology in college... back when the dinosaurs roamed. The contents of which may prove as much prophetic as it they were merely conjecture at the time. Most of Humanity's advancements that "synergistically" fed-back favorably into our rise out of the primordial setting ...that all happened, despite all protestations and hand waving... during relative climate quiescence? The latter probably more allowing the former to take place than we are collectively ever considering ...much less aware. Our species particular two pillars, which allowed us to then avail of that favorable environment, was/is a, our cooperation and working together ( strength in numbers ...) and b ... perhaps most importantly of all, we have a unique adaptability about us... Most other mammals of this world, within reasonable comparative per capita biomass ... , can't do that. They don't adapt as quickly - when their ecology breaks down at a faster rate than evolutionary process can adjust... they tend to extinguish. Whether we are aware of the following or not... we are actually testing our own human design and advantage - unwittingly as such... Because we may just succeed at destabilizing the ecology so far, one that we arrogantly forget we actually still depend upon, to the point where it will take something almost super natural to overcome and adapt. Maybe that's the ultimate evolutionary challenge. In the meantime, good luck with thinking that a catastrophic Greenland icecap failure ... whether in a single event, or a cocktail of cleave and rumblers spanning 20 or 30 years ( still virtually instantaneous compared to geologic time scales... ) can't happen.

... yeah...it's definitely interesting...

Actually ...surprisingly... the 00z GFS oper. version is reasonably well-behaved by not being as quick to erode the westerlies south in latitude as I've seen it do too often this summer... through 240 hours... I don't care to comment beyond -

If using the Euro... I would tend to agree on the highs - although the 850s are not achieving that depth ...so tfwiw However, I'm not sure see 56 there ... The front ( as explained ..) is exceptionally weak, and there is limited/virtually no CAA on the backside...so, where is the air mass change coming from ? I'm sure someone will go out and find some graphical illustration/Euro-based product that clearly is over-exaggerating the amount of thermometer house response to a synoptic evolution, that in fairness ...really doesn't support said graphical illustration/Euro-based product ... and use that to refute... But, I'll just spare that individual that sloped/agenda/spin tactic and say don't bother.. Cooler/cozy climate relative numbers are not really as supportive for COC in that period that way things are trending here. But hey... maybe the new runs come in with a more coherently arguable 'house-cleaning' gust of post fropa air mass change.

Beyond this week... guidance is bizarre looking... There some sort of deep EPO look ...if ephemeral ... with a deep anomaly careening S over/west of the western Canadian cordillera... and the appearance of an elevated(ing) NAO over the western limb of that particular domain space... The concurrence of those two large scale modalities suggests a big fantastic heat bomb from TX to New England... yet, we only see a pallid commitment. Oh the Euro's got some big number potential by D9/10 ...but by limitations of that time range alone...heh... Ah, may just be that we're seeing a snap shot mid way through a pattern change I guess I'll go scratch my brow line with extended perplexing thumbs over why the oper. GFS even exists just so I can 'dim this picture ' further...

Mm... I just wonder to be frank, if folks have been over playing/over anticipating the this "coc" idea for this week... Previous Euro runs never convincingly suppressed the 850 mb thermal layout enough to ( realistically ) buy days of that level of idealism... for one. I mean saying "this week" in any context, is plural. And now the 00z oper. rendition really doesn't at all from where I'm sitting. I mean..excluding yesterday and today... It's got a weak frontalysis/stationary boundary extending PHL to SE of BOS from 48 hours through 120 hours ...admittedly south ... however, there's essentially zippo CAA fields behind... And in fact, we are +14 up near your neck of the woods to +16 in SW CT the whole way. Don't get a two hours of sun from 9 am to 3 pm then - The only way that coc metaphor works out in a that sort of Euro synopsis is via cloud suppressed temperatures ... But that isn't the same deal,.. .and it's actually likely to be humid so that's the ball game. I haven't bothered to look at any GFS genetics... that entire species of model is flat out got me irked - ...on an unrelated note ( sort of ..), it overtly rasps the tops of ridge down too far, using any butterfly flap it can find up stream to do it... and I worry about even the mid range ranges come cold season...when we're trying to assess the real depths and trends for trough amplitude, and what's this thing gonna do...

Funny how it only took 10 days for this to finally get here

Short lived ... new NAM rolls heat back in on Monday. Severe tuesday?

I think there was a diffused additional boundary that kited through here this afternoon... High was 81 at several home stations around town and felt it,....then, it's suddenly early autumn vibe after those gust sprinkles whisked thru - but that's relative to acclimation. I mean it's still 72 right now... When it's been 45 days of 80/66 or more ...gets that way.. Anyway, the sky and air has the radiational vibe to it... DPs are still in the low 50s and with heavy greenery still evapotran ... interesting battle between dew drops at cooler interior/traditionals... Nice warm up persists beyond this...

What's your point? It escapes me - I'm not sure what you are really after.... Are you trying to convince people that: a ... there is not global warming b ... there is global warming, but it is not human activity attributed c ... something else... what?

Well... in any case... I'm sticking with the developing plausibility that we are lacking specific atmospheric responses to underlying SST anomalies ...because the traditional correlations are breaking down due ( most probably ...) to climate change. But all that is actually less than relevant for this year... this year's prognostics of the ENSO appears to fall within the < +1 or > -1 neutrality anyway ... effectively making the question of whether there is a response or not, more likely moot. The AO may be more negative ... this is suggested by the solar nadir resonance stuff... which won't get into ... But, that means that we deal with huge gradients. Fast fast fast flow...at times more quelled to moderate more normal... All that really means is that storms are more sheared and move faster... But in a sort of arithmetic sense... that can also intuit making up for winter storm impacts in the aggregate. More nickle-dime events ... but you know... "nickle" and "dime" are relative distinctions in them selves, because one thing we are not even considering in these seasonal debates and prognostics is the DEFINITE upward empirically proven increase in precipitation quota that's happened in the last 25 years... And that ain't measurement techniques so don't even try that... a 4" mechanical deal in 1990 produces 6" now...just accept that... because the air is - yes according to climate prediction with the change - holding more water vapor. Oh god... ad nauseam..it gets impossible to do this... to do it right,.. you have to include what everyone chastises like an irreverent scorning mob outside of the Ark -

Mm ...I wanna believe in this ... I happened to think you are a talented dude in the "art" of speculative Meteorological sciences ... However, much of my own sentiments ( not saying I'm right, per se...I'm just trying to add some credence here a little) is echoed elsewhere by leading climatologists circuited into the Global sort of Zeitgeist if you will... Take this from Scripps.. "... Most long-range forecast models predicted a potentially drought-ending deluge in California from the climate pattern known as El Niño in winter 2015-16, but the actual precipitation was far less than expected. A National Science Foundation-supported study led by climate scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego offers an explanation why. “Comparing this El Niño to previous strong El Niños, we found big differences in the atmospheric response across the globe, including California,” said Nick Siler, lead author of the study that was published in the Journal of Climate, and a postdoctoral scholar in the research group of co-author Shang-Ping Xie at Scripps. “We found that these differences weren’t all random, but rather were caused by tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies unrelated to El Niño.” " This is what bothers me ... That factor, bold right there... I don't believe is a factor that has gone away? That ... eeee kinda sorta tries to suggest ...we may be crossing a threshold into a new norm. Time will tell.. But this above is precisely what the conclusion I've been coming to ... we lack gradient because the warmer than normal preconditioning, and therefore... didn't seen the responses.. It's only relevant now because ... heh, I don't see how the ENSO going into this year is really going be readily seen as forcing much when we had trouble getting much more than pallid responses from a much more obvious scenario like that. interesting ..but keep in mind; we are talking probabilities? - something(s) can certainly change such that a comparatively weaker signal shows up more... sure... but, even if so, I think the longer termed issue of needing to question the standard correlations needs to be considered.

that's not a bad way to look at it actually ... but at all scales and dimension in the thing. We see +2 ENSO... budda boom budda bing WRONG We seem to see shapes and knee-jerk as a species... but the scalar values tell a different story and hide demons - haha. Looks can be deceiving.. You know, it's still not abundantly clear to me how and how much the SST anomalies are being weighted... If it is more so against the 100 year? ...200 ....500 via reanalysis techniques.. 30-year slide? Even if 30 year, which in practice is more contemporaneously relevant ... the climate appears to be on such a hockey-stick acceleration that even that is dubiously comparative. I mean ...+1 relative to 20 years ago may totally f-up that assumption... we don't know. And AMS is cagey about disseminating paper abstracts - ...or, no one cares and the world's gone mad! which it has anyway ...but I digress...

Well ... the models finally did it... they succeeded in boring out a deep hole in the atmosphere through eastern Ontario... The GFS in particular ... but all have at one time or the other, all summer long, been churning out model runs with autumn vortexes that never panned out... Finally, one is/did... I'm tentatively encouraged by this. First off, someone earlier asserted 'summer's back is broken' - heh... I'd go with strained. It's a fun anecdotal question...one that is wholly subjective and semantic ( so fraught with disagreement potential...), but, it seems to vary from year to year. Some years... heh, the back is always broke... Other years, seems we have to get to the end of September before that seems clad and clear. I'd say odds favor we won't have to be protracted this go... it's just not happened quite yet though. Call it strained... We'll see how that D6-10 pans out... I think we have a shot at an early transition season and possibly an early loaded winter. Not sure how folks judge that one, either... But, I don't consider those recent Thanks giving snow events as really counting much toward that distinction, because it didn't last. By "loaded" we don't mean ... flighty ...we mean loaded. The last time I think we really had that was 2010 but I'm curious what others think... Incidentally, the thanks giving ones I believe were related to the same reason so many other Octobers have witnessed either snow, or...snow supportive cold outbreaks since the year 2000. It's just that early -AO attributed cold incursions ( prior to seasonal pattern orientation ) have been more common in recent decades... So we've observed a propensity for -AO all summer long... one that as of last checked is in the process ( American derived - ) yet again of correcting negative at CPC... The question is... does that extinguish as we head into the autumn. I think it may not ... the Millennial curve of polar region is negative ... *typically landing on AMOC ... and both are solar correlated.. .With the deep nadir from the resonant 11, 22, 300 year stuff... that seems a reasonable first guess that we won't have to pull as many teeth to see -AO ... and also, able to sustain. Speculative... I think we get cool snaps into October and even an early car topper event - ...then, as the hemisphere really cools and the gradient steepens...we'll find out what the winter look will be... What ever it is... it'll probably be faster than a bat leavin' hell -

Just imho but I'm not sure we can really disconnect the state of the hemispheric gradient distribution, from "how" ENSO can trigger/forcing ... You can't. Gradient is the trigger.. without it... no response. Scott is correct ... a warm overall basin elevates the thresholds, beyond which forcing kicks in... because the gradient is too weak... and as such, the mid latitudes/westerlies are not as sensitive to modest ENSO deviations..

Nah. Steve thinks I engage in that provincial bias/ emotional motivation bullshit you guys dance around in here and typical to his generation ... puts words in people's mouth too when faux believes that's happening theres no mode the model ridged. Suck it up

Depends on the biota. Some organisms on the planet benefit from CO2 and in fact need it for life. But yeah .. even for these organisms an over abundance of CO2 becomes toxic… And in fact that equation is extremely complex ...because organisms that require CO2 may be ecologically co-dependent in their environment by organisms for other vital needs that can't have CO2 - in that sense indirectly toxic by association. Fact the matter is there's a delicate balance there ... one that was always there before humanity came along with its hyper-proficient usage of resources of exhaustive consequence, which surpassed that background ability to absorb it - once that happened it became pollution.

Wrong... right off the bat - tried to deny math. C02 is pollution if/when it is sourced from profligate measures... and, said sourcing goes above and beyond mass necessity, and becomes a toxin/detriment to the vitality of the system - to mention, because of said profligate activity. You missed the point... tried to deny.... wrong

Well...be that as it may, the graphical presentation being perhaps a week behind other sources... The dailies depict illustrations that clearly still put 2019 ahead of 2012 as of August 8 from the same source as that graph. one, it will be interesting to see the graph update... heh.. But two, I've annotated and it's pretty clearly obvious ...if said graph is based upon anything resembling these [crude] cartoons... it's just as likely to update still below the 2012 curve..

That's an impressive above normal look to the D6-10 Euro... There's actually some semblance of that sort of heat dome - ridge roll-out from the Midwest lurking in some of these recent operational GFS runs too... But ...prooobably need a couple days to assess the legitimacy of that period of time. The tele's are still in there perennial slumber ... but the NAO... having some minimal correlative usefulness at this time of year, is rising as we near that period... so that may offer a hesitated nod. Either way... the Euro as usual takes a D8 unavoidable extrapolation for big heat on D9 ... and finds a way not to get heat in here on that D9 ... That's bullshit ( relative to this run that is...) Assuming for a moment D7/8 holds... 9/10 go to hell in a correcting evolution.

In spite of all protestations ... the math is incontrovertible - To remove any questionable "A" contribution in AGW... requires removing A's contribution. The instant you try to fabricate any other word, you are illogical and wrong. That cannot be disputed. But excluding that which makes the rest of this futile for a moment... deniers don't even make it clear what they deny... What are you trying to gain by denying? Deniers would have you believe that it would hurt the world, if we stopped polluting the atmosphere? otherwise.... What is their f'ing point! The simple truth is, it can only help if humanity stops the pollution. If there is any question as to whether there is pollution - a far gone scientifically painful truism anyway... You stop and assess. Immoral is what it is... People would quite literally prefer to live in delusions perpetuated by a consensus based upon stuff they want to believe, rather than stuff that actually exists in reality and nature. It's like ... you may not have actually received the Darwin award? But your certainly in the process of walking to the podium to take the trophy.

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'