Typhoon Tip

Yeah ...most of these radar loops really want to suggest the low center is ~ 90 mi S of BID ...which is definitely west of modeling, certainly at the very western edge of consensus envelope if that's verified. I think these 6 to 9 hours are critical to the total evolution of this thing. If we get the center jump east out to a new low near the triple point axis of the lengthening occluded boundary then the previous head scratch solutions have merit. If however, this western low center - which frankly is already a slight bust in my opinion - remains more dominant, than the phasing evolution (which has only been non-committal and partial to date) may also be a more fluid determination. All that said ... doesn't really matter. I have personally been obsessing over the fact that the governing synoptic evolution so favored phasing...yet failing, that the reality of this storm ginormous girth and mid level mechanics bowing so far back W was getting less attention; but is probably the same damn thing sensibly to a small storm making a closer pass. So what difference does it really make? not a lot.. .I guess for things to "make sense" ...it would be more settling to see this western solution work out... but, seeing as it has already to this point at least a little, may also be an acceptable compromise. So...some philosophy to go with some obs. 30F ; 3" 1/3 mi vis S

Pinball: "TILT!" "TILT!" "TILT!"

I should research the X scale ... many of these scales are not linear - they are logarithmic. For example, every 10 mph > than ~ 75 equates to ~ 2 X the wind force. Earth Quake seismology is the same...the slope is accelerating in the positive direction. Is it the same for X classifications? -curious

How do you come by that assessment exactly - No, unfortunately... neither clause in that bold sentence is true. The only thing here you said worth reading is 'there is literally nothing else to be discussed' With your vast superior frame of reference on matters, you finally did come to startlingly undeniable conclusion. Congrats! and who the f is Dave ... You child. This site and it's antics mean nothing ... get over this and your self, will ya? holy crap.

Yeah ...in his defense, I was just trying to propose a base-line idea that a Kp 5 was probably not likely to be seen - but he spun off on some validation crusade where he's smarter than me, which may very well be the case ( ) BUT, interestingly enough, was the ONLY aspect of that conversation that was truly irrelevant .. The Kp is basically just when the geo-magnetometers detects at given latitudes the ovular ring is assessed based on real-time detection - but it's an interesting secondary question re the "vibrant" intensity of it ..

You stated, ".. Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show. ..." It may have been a bad assumption but that sounded to me you were bummed out about it being day-time. Sorry. Whether it is relevant to you or not... fact of the matter is, Kp of 5 would be stressed to see it at our latitude even on a star lit night. That index measure doesn't extend to our latitude - I don't see how that is irrelevant. Nor premature - you should probably learn some tact. I'm not some rube in this area of near -terrestrial physics. I fail the to see the logic in how those post could be construed as either irrelevant, or premature. Those factors and concepts are central to the phenomenon science for f sake. jesus

It doesn't seem you do. But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason. to each his own -

I know what it means... And I know how to use it. If it's only a 5 max, you may not see it around here, anyway, so you're "not missing out" - that was the point.

I wonder if we are, though - The "auroral oval" on the web-site has a big gap in it over on our side of the hemisphere. New England to southern Greenland is effectively 0 on that particular product. Besides, the Kp index is really what we should be going by...and we usually need a minimum of 6 to start seeing it via longer exposure recording devices. Presently it is only 5 ... So, gaps and fives ...meh. That may and probably will change as the full onslaught of the CME continues to impinge upon the planetary system ..yadda yadda, but for now, we aren't missing much if daylight is the only limitation. It's centered on the other side and is of lower storm strength at this time. We'll see how things cook heading toward evening...

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/26/africa/kenya-pope-francis-trip-main/index.html

Which side of the pole is the annular ring/oval... ? Last thursday was the 156th anniversary of the Carrington event. Just sayin'

One thing that's always stood out in my memory as interesting about that '92 storm was all the consternation before hand regarding p-type and where.... Yet, when all was set and done, not only did snow win out in most places (given time and dynamics depending) but the temp was into the upper teens in a lot of those some areas of interior eastern zones. That's not just a p-type and subsequent snow amount bust... that's busting with some serious panache! 17 F ??!! hello -

It had a nice negative tilt to it showing up in the OV... I like to look for that for NJ model lows.