Typhoon Tip

Saturday then opens up spectacular ...could be a first top 10er day of the year. 850's +2 C SE of a Rut-Con line... with PGF focusing a subtle d-slope look, and RH flooring/open sky .. it could snow Friday morning at least in the air, and have that be 66 F the next afternoon in that look... I don't actually care as much suffering April shitz weather if it's going to modulate mercy the next day like that - fine!

wow, this 12z Euro run is very darn near close to an isothermal Friday morning ...about +.25 C at 850 with that low retrograding to near the BM... interesting -

Classic gaining sun-angle mid spring scenario where the MOS may nail it but the backyards bust 1 to 3 clicks warmer... Love these faux-warm afternoons for the alternative they offer comparing the drab misery of yesterday's ilk. So it's 50 here at multiple home stations within a mile or two of mi casa. And the wind is negligible ...so when you find a 'sun nook' it's really a stolen gem compared to what the overall week's appeal looked like at any modeling point before this day for this time period.

Ohgh....no comparison! Compared to yesterday and the day before? my god - I'll take 47 and full sun post the Equinox over that layering between rectal-plaque and Satan's colon walls weather we were given yesterday. That was our world-ending salvation...

Wouldn't shock me if locales like Blue Hill observatory ...or up along the slopes of the eastern ORH hills recoup a few hours of cat paws or even some mangled 'chutes during the first 6 or so hours of that (50-56 hours) in a NAM thermal handling. Actually all models indicate that interval as warm advection from the NE ... a bit counter-intuitive but that is actually not that atypical for a deeply core-wrapped west Atlantic cyclones that are pinned under a west based -NAO ridge in the spring. This used to happen more frequently in the 1990s. So we get some pingers and white globule rain drops for a while, and then it's cold mist and light rain horror show for another 12 hours after that, and then we're done as the whole structure rotates SE and away... And notice the 500 mb thickness tapestry matures some 6 to 10 dm prior to after that spoke pivots through? That's a warm front/symbolically Saturday could be a fantastic day and probably starts the transition into an extended period of probably the best 850 mb thermal layout of the spring so far..though obviously nuances/sensible surface weather to be determined. The Euro looked like it was attempting to paint a couple gems 7, ...10

agreed! very much echoed this a couple weeks ago when it was obviously destined that way

which is inversely proportionate to stating, ' we will always understand Kevin's illogic'

Presently ...for those that hold out for a late surprised, your window 'appears' to be this week. The antecedent -NAO was remarkably well handled by the various ensemble means, but the details in the flow ( timing/spacing waves et al) have emerged to nuance this particular version of a -NAO ...utterly meaningless to your hopes and dreams. Which in a petty sort of way, the spring/seasonal change and warm enthusiasts suffer beside you in equal proportion, because any -NAO in the first week of April is not a warm signal either, particularly if/when it is idiosyncratically west-based... That said..., at least for the warm enthusiasts, the -NAO appears to (thankfully!) have a lease. The Euro operational run has been signaling the NAO blocking node(s) as collapsing to mesh in with the perennial Atlantic heights, leaving a bit more zonal component to the westerlies at high latitudes across the D. Straight/adjacent N. Atl Basin as near as this week's end ... The GFS seems, as usual, to be fictionalizing the Hemisphere of Neptune on Earth by beady-eyed obsession to keep the flow progressive and therefore loses any signal at all in lieu of said bias beyond 5 days - so tougher read there. But, as far as the Euro, it concomitantly raises the heights over eastern N/A mid latitudes/U.S. It's not a hugely demonstrative ridge or anything, but it may become more prevalent given some marinading in time. The EPS made a pretty significant adjustment in the D7-10 range toward more a -PNAP signal...and with the NAO at that time appearing to either be neutral/rising, that could be the real, true seasonal exit and green up ... 'outdoorsy' push that flips the script. We'll see, but that signal starts ~ 6 days from now and matures going onward from there. In the meantime, this week is tormented misery unfortunately. D4 may actually feature a pivot/-NAO spoke of wet snow and cold rain coming down like we used to see in the 1990's springs. Kind of reminiscent there. Beyond that... April is very tough to establish and maintain warm signals. Even in the warmer characterized patterns, we have such a huge dichotomy between land/continent and near-by Labrador modified death vapor. By physical circumstance and gravity, that latter is denser and wants to be underneath said warmth of the continent - which by irony and [probably] the design of satan himself no doubt, that's where humanity of course must be. It's like there is a permanent counter vector always pointing SW underneath the environmental synoptic appeals, at all times - think "white men can't jump" - oh they can, they just have to work harder to do it. Same here... we can get warm in April, but we have to overcome this veritable vector ... arriving (typically) in the form of back-door fronts, and/or like this week, seemingly eternal west Atlantic cut-off gyres. So, having a tentative warm signal heading toward the 10th of the month is almost a blessing already - certainly a start.

Did someone post a statistical run-down of the top 20 lowest snow return winters tending to be followed by above normal temperature summers? I may be imagining that but I thought I had seen that in here -

That's not a reason, though - what does that mean, after 20 years.. .It's a faux logic to break something that isn't broken. I hate that - if there is empirical evidence to support the position as being held by inadequate personnel, that is when you rebuild it. The 20 years is irrelevant. Now...one can argue that at age 42, the longevity is an issue.. yeah, granted. Quite true. But, patterning and real evidence is that this particular individual's future doesn't decline along the 'normal extinction of skill and usefulness' curve ( if we will...), that you normally get from other QB's. There's that, and, that gives time to repopulate the position - which that Tidman kid showed enough promise to be at minimum a stand in if needed, if not taking over. Patriot's fan base is a bastion for high- rootin' tootin' yahoos, too many of which are rah-rahing their way through any analytic regards to this/these questions, but the reality is ... there is a better way to manage this transition than forcing the team ( probably... but we'll see) down a five year road of rebuilding mediocrity. We'll probably never see a 6 super bowl future ever again. The reality is, the base-line probability is that any team is lucky to have one in five years...and the Patriots are probably now riding along that same curve. And they didn't have to... it didn't have to end this way... It seems like self-destruction is fad-cancer currently permeating all walks of societal reality these days.... This whole pandemic thing is serious, but not apocalyptic like the corporate media is cashing in on by creating this dystopian cinema. It seems it's part of the human equation, to want to disrupt good things destructively and force a reset - it's some evolutionary trick (probably) to prevent the tribe from gaining complacency during faux quiescence ( theory)

Tom Brady out according to his own tweet - could be a hoax to motivate reaction? ...but, given the last several months of fervor and tenor surrounding his free-agency, and to mention the SUPER attractive offence the can-do-know-wrong Bellicheck put together surrounding him last year ... probably this is destiny

Yeah... it seems a matter of time before get some kind of public restriction mania going ... one wonders. I mean, it won't be like "martial law" per se, but several states are urging people to telecommute if they can, else ..self quarantine if there is any suspicion at all they may have been in contact - but think about that? Who and how the f would anyone know that! Idiots...so, the next logical steps is mass hysteria of course - too predictable. Meanwhile, we wonder if it's over-publicized ... "catastrophized" to try and generate corporate-media profits. The histrionic fervor that's "trying to elevate" doesn't seem to really necessitate the urgency, not when comparing to the veracious science and data that's being buried beneath the din of fear mongering. Some of the descriptions of those with this illness who are among what is considered 'healthy population,' report 8 hours of fever, followed by a day or so of mild fatigue and they're out - fine. No worse for the wear. Head colds are far f worse. And yeah, you get the flu with advanced underlying morbidity factors, you're at risk either way. This has a 2 percent mortality rate ... 2... and that does not include 'healthy populations' almost all who have died were in the risk minority. Ebola was 90%... 90 .. You could have been Jesse Owens and you'd -a been in deep shit. Not this f thing. no way...not even in the same ballpark. Yet, think back to the media coverage spanning both ... you'd think that was Corona and this was Ebola the way it is being aggrandized -

As we get ready to embark upon a new summer season, for those of us who care, there is anticipation for how the temperature departures will tend to layout across North America - and obviously... how that will affect our region. I have taken note over the last ten years, an interesting tendency to offset extreme (high) temperature results in New England due specifically to cloud coverage. There are other geo-physical circumstances that offset - I'm speaking specifically to tendencies for mid and high level "gunk" cloud coverage, which tends to dim solar flux during warm continental transports and/or in-general deeper tropospheric height events. I thought perhaps I was just imagining contaminating warm-sector cloud propensity... Such an easy look-up using the "dubious" resource known as the Internet (sadly it has become... due to human propensity for greed and corruption at least excuse, a dying virtue ...I digress), I have neglected to really try, but an excerpt from this source, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190325120401.htm "..Even though northern Scandinavia should be strongly affected by global warming, the area has experienced little summer warming over recent decades -- in stark contrast to the hemispheric trend of warming temperatures, which is strongly linked to rising greenhouse gas emissions. According to the study, temperature changes have been accompanied by an increase in cloudiness over northern Scandinavia, which in turn has reduced the impact of warming..." rather nicely suggests I may be noticing something real. I have opined on few occasions, how our region of the globe, per NASA's ongoing 'state of the climate' monthly publications, dating back some 20 years actually ..., have shown that while we have experienced substantive upward temperature trends, they have been muted comparative to other land regions; such as Australia, Eurasian and Asia and Africa, where they may not have the same cloud tendencies. We do... maybe - because that bold excerpt above likens to an 'extreme' variation of what I may be observing locally - if due to a similar dimming/muting. I almost wonder if this summer ends up a 89'er; which would be +2 or +3 on the season, even suggesting episodic big heat, but in reality fails to produce, because of gunk sky contaminated warm ups. 20+C 850 mb warm air intrusions under cirrostrata contamination ... I have seen this frequently. I also wonder if the warming climate's theoretical relationship to increased WV content could be causally related to why some regions of the planet happen to register increasing cloud coverage as this warming has occurred over recent decades - if so, are we actually one such region. I just have seen too many 21 C, 850 mb afternoons hold up at 91 F ...with periodic swaths of cirro-stratum and alto stratus clipping the solar flux. So, this warm up Monday into Wednesday this week ... Firstly, I'm impressed that the models can't bring a BD down here approaching the "stellar warm time of year" known as the Ides of March. Yet, the Euro holds that boundary up around midriff Maine. That said, I was looking at the GGEM and Euro moisture layering and that looks like a candidate mottled warm sector of robbed solar input. 700 mb has >50% RH ... which wouldn't be necessarily the same cause as the deep summer reasoning, no...but, it does remind me of similar...and that having +7C at 850 mb, in a reasonably well mixed WSW flow ..."should" poke another 70 F chance one of those afternoons, but I almost wonder if it stays 64 to 66 because of cloud albedo

Not sure about 'preview' per se ...but, when the whole hemispheric eye-balled integral results in solidly above normal heights, that becomes a hemispheric problem

Mah... it's stimulation withdrawal syndrome ( or is it 'withdraw' ?) The more dystopian entertainment people get, anything less makes them feel 'empty' because acclimation means they're not being accelerated to the same sense of urgency - which they use that drama to replace real values systemically missing from their lives ( as an add-on (btw) ). Even in the histrionic din of upped dramatic storm frequency ...there's going to be periods of relative offset quiescence ..and folks are just going to have to get the shakes we guess.

What's wrong with this picture ..

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.