Typhoon Tip

Increases in WV associated with GW contributes to more proficient precipitation, which should be acceptable via understanding Clausius Clapeyron equation ... Indeed, climate reports indicate 4 to 5% increases since 1901 ... However, looking at the graphical distribution ... the statistics are rather noisy (below)... I find it interesting ...the Autumn cuts up the lion's share of that increase ...where by eye-ballin' alone ...clearly the winters are surprising less. I mean just look at CT ... they are in a snow deficit compared to the rest of New England outside of Maine. There is pretty obvious less than ubiquitous distribution with regional variations, as well, seasonal differences involved in that mean U.S. total increase (keeping in mind, precipitation in this context pertains to both rain and snow). That sort of distribution pallet is more consistent with less skill than deterministic. I mean, just locally ... look at the difference between CT and MA. in that winter graphic. Plus...that Fall - Winter relay that is a monster differential there, and since Novie is an autumn month, and Dec is winter. is there any flop over there... Creates more questions than answers. The other aspect that muddles this, because of 'Clapeyron relationship. the same system 50 years ago does not as proficiently precipitate - that skews the model of the big ticket vs smaller aggregates.. in fact, it starts leaning the argumentative difference to moot if any trigger at all starts dumping bigger rain and/or snow bombs because of the saturation effect. To the point where we 990 mb low historic events with increased frequency, but the governing kinematics are not overtly impressive. When we look at this climate graph We may see an upward trend in big ticket events ... We may not be technically wrong... but, in reality what we are seeing may be an upward trend in precipitation period, because all events under the hood are being super-charged.

yeah...it's interesting to see 2019 be within decimals of those floor values when there's an average bottom date of Sept -16 among those other years, and we're only on August 21

This is gonna be close ...

There are solutions to the entire power-grid aspect of this that are completely obscured(ing) from masses. Partially by design ... partially by habit. There are "exotic" technologies in the private sector that no on even knows about ...buried, quietly... be it Trumpian morality and ethics, ...or just the hand-me-down dogmas of generational traditionalism within people's ways of life - basically ...culturally suppressed. But because of the suppression ... oblivion, and what probably should be more obvious has to now be 'out of the box thinking.' It's not that it is out of the box, ...it's just that we've been conditioned by a combination of convenience and apathy not to consider. It is possible to sequester electrical charge straight out of the ambient atmosphere. Yup... free energy. But therein is the problem ... that poke in the craw of the sociopath, "free" ... "hmmm... shit. That means I don't get to con Humanity into dependency on Oil and other pernicious means of energy extraction ... wantonly ignoring morality along the way in reaching the goals of my quarterly reports ...! God damn it..." It kind of reminds me of the "Mosquito Coast" Think about it - even you are not a physicist ...you should be able to intuit the plausibility. There can be a way to draw power directly from any gaseous volume that contains energy (thermal resonance) greater than absolute zero - ... we're living on a planet where there is just such a volume, and guess what... it's got so much thermal energy in the free static air that any quantization would be so large a number, it would escape all effective meaning... And, these devices have been invented... It's called the thermoelectric effect ...basically, it's theoretically known spanning multiple generations... where it is possible to convert temperature differences, directly to electric voltage ... ( and vice versa...which could be harnessed in home heating and cooling without too much imagination ... etct) And it's all done through the physics of thermocoupling ... ...etc..etc.. But nope - Humans can't seem to evolve away from that pesky evolutionary advantage that no one would ever concede was necessary along the way: GREED... Hoarding and me-firstitude favors the individual. See...the way that works ( crude model): when the collective cooperation spirit of the community is about to cause the extinction of the village that hoarder survives his/her genes into the next generation - greed lives... It is why greed is actually a core instinct along with all others, in the genetic make-up of humans. It's sneaky, stealthy ...furtive presence in all dealings has piggybacked along with cooperation instinct along the evolutionary tract. Any moral ( morals can be bad or good by the way...) we can learn to avoid them? ...suppress is more like it... But, greed is no longer necessary in times of surplus and opulence ...and at present state of evolution, human ingenuity has long outfoxed the basic ecological model of survival by provisions therein. We produce our own provisions...is surplus. Perhaps if the asteroid does strike one day, or the Carrington Event shuts this thing done and there's an immediate jolt back to primal living ...greed will have it's stealthy place again... But until that happens... it's an instinct that hasn't turned off...but is causing all this... And is hugely exposed. Because it's morality is now competing with the morality and ethics of that which would provided a greener vision for the world. That's really all it is... that simple. Humans can't do anything truly altruistic. Nope. They have to invent a illusory system of value, Economics... ( which sorry for the soulless among us who are so bought in they're oblivious to reality... money has no intrinsic value outside the parlance and tragic comedy of Human affairs - we all merely agree on it's value... ) and then hold individual's ability to survive for ransom by making profit off that dependency

Yeah ....me thinks said wfront has penetrated N into SE Mass ...but probably typically lags in the deeper interior where BL featuring/sublte cool pooling is offering resistance.

Warm frontal structure was analyzed by WPC extending west-east thru N. PA to Cape Cod around 6:30 this morning.. It appears slated to evolve N thru the region during the remainder of the morning. Not sure what the timing is... but it may wait until the +pressure perturbation associated with day-time heating in the BL/warm sector to give it the nudge north to southern VT/NH during the afternoon.. If you're in central new england...you are still hundreds of miles from that boundary and probably cold butt banged... If you are S of rt 2 ... you might get in... If you are S of the Pike you probably have a good shot at tainted heating with elevated dew points... One thing ... any time we have warm fronts in that configuration attempting to wobble N through the area... there is elevated torsional shear values ... I'm curious what the spinner prospects might be... ?

Within a Millennium seems a bit conserved to me.... Particularly when the GW is accelerating ... I didn't look very closely at their math but on the surface ( heh...pun) they didn't appear to have logr effects due to accelerating variable values... This whole thing with synergy is just not being taken very seriously -probably more like less understood. Unrelated ... but Sanjay Gupta was recently extolling human beings are simply not wired to process the specter of climate change - I further that sentiment by re-iterating some of my recent opine material, related to " ..humans have never responded very well to threats that do not readily appeal via one of the corporeal senses.." - it's commentary routed into the same concepts... and GW/climate change is an insidiously quite stalker. This is particularly true, when the one force that is causing the ballast of the pernicious changes ( Human activity ) is uniquely adaptable ... thus making it easier to deny for readily evading its harmful effects via that same adaptation. I further again that synergistic effects ... acceleration, and gestaltian under-estimates can under calculate ablation ...the atmosphere accelerates further... that complicates their application - I'll have to read the article again... ( I'm on about 7 of these today - my god..) But the ocean levels rise at a greater rate than these linear application of rudimentary mathematics will imply given acceleration.

Yeah that product I posted is the MASIE ... or the augmented IMS ... hints at that in the lower right text block ...which for some reason had previous escaped my attention. Heh... anyway I found a different site that describes similarly when searching this shit - anyway, I think these curves have to converge at some point - thing is... we're so close to shared curve space that's probably splitting hairs at the moment... 2012 vs 2019 I mean

You've been above the theta-e axis in the means... that would be my guess... I dunno - the NP-Lakes-NE regions have been almost collocated with the summer polar jet the whole f'n way ... Can't seem to flop convincingly on one side or the other.... It's been a -AO summer - so says the numbers. But, I almost wonder if the polar jet stayed active at a lower latitude mainly because S of ~ 40 N there' has been a subtle positive height anomaly everywhere... Meanwhile, more average heights abound the 50th - that would enhance the westerlies in between ... and the AO may be more like "defaulted" S in such a situation. Either way... the jet nearby has entrained drier air into the N Lakes to NNE but probably not this far S. Your region may be just far enough polar ward of the core that the deeper theta-e is ablated from getting that far N ...where's as ...we're getting closer to the source ...but no so much so that we are convincingly hot - at least not by day... It's been weird. A top 10 hot summer with only 12 90 F days - ... that's a lot of 88.4's ... but really, it seems this has been a nocturnal summer. Last night night was surreal down our way... it was just at sun set... The sky rendered to that misty gray-blue of dusk, and the air was utterly still... It was 80 F ... What was so odd is everything about that setting screamed 62 and hemorrhaging heat to space... 80 F That warm sultry stillness under such open sky -

Okay ... .this is just quick and dirty Web goop but... IMS is being used by the National Snow and Ice Date Center ... IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis at 1 km, 4 km, and 24 km Resolutions, Version 1. This data set provides maps of snow cover and sea ice for the Northern Hemisphere from February 1997 to the present from the National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). That's what's confusing ... if we say "...2nd lower behind NSIDC" ( which I'm not trying to refute...) but this statement above says they are using the same IMS tech, and said tech is showing 2019 has been lower than 2012 the whole way... that's a discrepancy.

I have a question - which may be fairly 'duh' but since I haven't been by those other sources ... Are those more comprehensive than "sea ice only" ? That IMS product is sea ice only ... And also, just fyi ... the IMS product comes from NSIDC - we may be able to put the pieces together here on why the disparity. It's gotta just be some dumb product thing I'm not seeing shit

I don't doubt there is/was relevant science and/or postulate content that predates the shenanigans that go in here I mean ..it's a public forum ... to which a social media outlet certainly qualifies, and folks rarely cite their sources, anyway. That said ... this came up back in Eastern days... from which this site really owes it's heredity of users ... (initially anyway ...that's probably obscured by now), but unfortunately, content didn't follow. Also, I frankly wouldn't put it past anyone in the general ambit of research ... regardless of affiliation and rank, elsewhere ...to poach ideas from dialectical free-for-all sources ( like the Web when it's not degrading into vitriol ) and then run with it using the wherewithal they have at their disposal. Much of that wouldn't even be malfeasance ... not the point. If I'm in a conversation with someone and it triggers a thought progression...and I science it and make discoveries... It's just where the 'idea zygote' took place. But like I said...like mindful quorums and consortia and who-knows-what intelligentsia ... they will tend to converge on similar ideas at the same time - this has taken place throughout human history. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it as an afterthought .. .

Firstly ... I like the opening thought here ... There are indeed vying forces ...some more dominant than others, in every multiplex system of Nature - to which the governing atmosphere/climate forces certainly fall into this give and take. Secondly ... you know it's funny - this business about "fossil" fuels... It took this planet some 100's of millions of years to sequester carbon out of the global biota ...and inter it all into these VOC chemistries ... then, Humanity comes along. With its ingenuity ( which has clearly out-paced any pragmatic checks and balances in the evolutionary sense of it...) we've managed ( ..if left to our own devices ) to liberate all of it back to environment in unbounded form in just 1,000 years. 100s of millions 1,000 The idea that there is anyone at all who would have the audacity to even try and ask anyone to negate ramification - ...that's incredible. I suppose it is possible ( tho proven not the case on Earth...) to find a system somewhere in Nature where you can completely forcibly infuse change without actually witnessing change ...

Fwiw - as of two days ago ( 18th ) from IMS: https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Really ... Not looking for credit per se ... but, I haven't heard about the gradient hypothesis from anyone other than the person who proposed it five years ago ... and has been heavier about it over the last two. Now, it's owned by someone else - Heh... I suppose - fire was quasi implemented as a formal tool in human history at the same time every, too, so ...it's possible more than one person had the exact same to the letter ...inference regarding climate variations and large scale circulation forcing -

It's subjective so taken with the perfunctory grain - but nope. Summers' back ain't broke... not until you get a shot across the bow - ...or at least the shot that's right before that one - not thinkin' we've seen either just yet. buuuut, that's just my opinion. May not have to wait long though ... that sub 560 dam thickness attempting to plume over the weekend .. if that holds. One kind of marker for this assessment - subjective or not ... - is that nightly lows still are above normal.... like always. Which is probably short-sighted as a metric. I mean.. GW means that could be true anyway... by decimals... I like the other idea that the "new climate norms" since 1990 need to roll-out in the daily comparisons ...because these +2's are getting ridiculous - agreed...

I almost wonder... hmm.. purely speculation but could the changes in the overall circulation of the N.Hemispheric winter that's been noted over the last two decade be partially causal in that...

It's probably more subtle than idealy coherent ... buuut, that seems to be a recurrent theme in recent years... But all's not lost? Because what happens - in deference to Scott's Euro stuff... - is that the NE Pac lends to more -EPO - like perturbations. We did remarkably well with winter expression in the rough NP-Lakes-SE Can/NE region with stretched L/W down wind of cold loading from that source... It'll be interesting if replay similar tapes. The other aspect is -NAO ... are these biasing over the western vs eastern limb -

I like this description for tomorrow from SPC/Convective Outlook source... "...Northeastern states... Heating will lead to numerous thunderstorms across the moist sector by 18Z over much of NY and northeast PA, expanding across New England during the afternoon. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear and 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH will be sufficient to sustain severe storms, including isolated supercells capable of marginal hail, a brief/weak tornado, or damaging wind. Due to the expected large number of storms, mergers are likely, and a few line segments may form as well. Storms may persist well into the evening and overnight into northern New England when the stronger height falls occur...." I've come to find that things tend to work out better for New England when the region is initially on the eastern manifold of these hashing's... Things just have a tendency to accelerate toward the coast and "sweet" instability away once triggered... but, tomorrow would tend to compensate for that effect as the axis of deeper layer forcing and destablization "waits" until a bit later in the day... The upshot is more time in heating... Looking at the synoptic evolution then going forward into the evening and the overnight ... there are steady albeit slow height falling in associated with the Ontario trough amplitude pressing over top ... I wouldn't be shocked if after initial wave of convection ...there are those training nocturnal back-building storms in the area...

.. Amplitude in the AA context imposes colder delivery to middle latitudes...which concomitantly slopes the heights ...faster wind speed results. Again... the Arctic is warming faster than the mid and lower latitude troposphere's ( do to various "synergistic" feedbacks and so forth...), but... it is still generating differentiable cold heights in the autumn and winter, and still sufficiently deep compared to the ballooning Hadely cell to create more gradient. They're not talking about geostrophic wind saturation in this article - they are talking about the large scale wave features these winds travel around. These features are a different beast than the flow along their gradients. When the gradient speeds up south ..this inegrates a weakening of the annular mode of the Arctic...draws/redraws the polar jet S where the gradient is larger ... this causes slowing of the zonal wind component at higher latitudes - check... But that means the gradient is intense along that southerly displacing polar jet and the wind...fast. Also .. for me, if anything... it makes sense that faster flow may "lock" patterns, as the forcing must be large and therefore "immovable" ( relatively..) and cause R-wave translation/morphology to slow.. because faster wind speeds intuitively would tend to dampen permutation forcing.

I realize this is a popular mantra regarding Logan observations ... that the stationion is interminably in temperature error, and that may be so. Still ... because surrounding stations are 2 or 3 cooler - that's enough reason to justify tossing alone That could still be explained/legitimized

Good luck with that ... Solar cycle/AMOC are reeling to the ... eh hm, other factors -

We Watch

i dunno ...was it 'posed to be hot there... ? we're doing just fine here in n-central Mass ... 92/73