Typhoon Tip

Probably more for the random thought thread but ... when faced with such alarming and incontrovertible evidence ...delivered in the above cinema like that, the production value in terms of drama/ magnitude I feel is necessary for an entirely apathetic society that doesn't appreciate/respect or "believe" ( because of the specter is too unbelievable for tenability ). And the latter aspect in that parenthetical, it seems to be proving an unavoidable first responder tact. It's almost like a longer protracted/staggered variation of the post-morem phasing. First denial, eventually leads to anger then bargaining ... The tenor of present seems to be somewhere between those three.

Yes Menfeld! ...apologies; I didn't see your post before submitting my own missive, else I would have responded directly to that one you made. It's directly was I was referencing in mine. As well, Don, agreed, and it's more than merely plausible, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1 ..is an article that I found to be fairly comprehensive in elucidating the many terrestrial factors out side of purely geopolitical distinctions that fed into Syria upheaval.

1 The short answer? The same way. ENSO (warm)(cool) phases are a 'climate cyclic' - and climate is inherently defined by ( events/n-events ). Particularly in the summer, when eddy forcing is more dictated by local scaled ( both time and space ) ephemeral anomalies, SS stressing can cause transient index topographies - but, when the autumn's kick the gradients in and the flows become for structurally defined those break down and the longer term residence re-emerges/gets exposed. 2 ..Approaching? most likely ... There? not likely ... Kinda of how to look at it. 3 Veerrry carefully - haha. I like qualification tactics because they are valid? One should mention their caveat emptors when discussing findings/foresight - that's more true to the scientific theme, anyway, because even Einstein said "Theory" within his title of General Relativity - even though at scales above Quantum Mechanics ... the rules that precipitate out of his tensor analysis' are incontrovertibly clad and he could have said, General "God am I smart, my way or the highway" Relativity. 4 Absolutely yes!

This is extremely important frame-work exposure of the crisis... Species migration will/has be a Humanity issue just as is for any other life form that necessarily moves from areas of harm to areas less so .. impelled to do so by their very instilled/instinct to survive. The destablization of the Baltic region and the recent refugee flux event over the last 10 years, was not just geopolitically motivated - as some scholarly papers available to general consumption of the web-browser discuss, and are available if one bothers to go and find. They were experiencing ecological failures on a multi-year scale, already on-going, such that the fateful arrival of the aforementioned duress becomes more like 'straw that broke the camels back.' It is what it is in a vacuum but .. part of the facets of the culture anti-CC narrative is the lack of culpable evidence that it is effecting/affecting - when there are evidence of this and have been for a decade or more in actuality and needs to be presented and spotlighted.

There's unusual eddy forcing all over the place because of the modulating impact of the expanded Hadley Cell into the Ferrell latitudes ... That's a large anomaly that's greater than single-seasonal and more a reflection of the state of the planetary system. This causing anomalies compared to the previous classic systemic model, and [ likely ] obscuring the "real" state of the oceanic indices due to those stresses. Things may look IOD (-)(+) but be ephemeral ...? They are responding to local time-scale disruptions that are part of that larger modulation. They would be faux presentation of states ... or, if they are real and integrating, it may not be readily coherent if they carry the same forcing weight because they are not differentiating the same way as they did in the previous model. A ballooned(ing) Hadley repositions the gradation of heights at mid latitudes. This effects a slew aspects in the on-going, longer term eddy forcing around the Hemispheres. I just think we cannot be as ENSO reliant at relative measures/observations, to known or suspected results, when those Climatologies are based upon a different era when these macro physical states of the environment dictated a different interrelationship among these various fields - or is strongly hypothetically supported as being different via convention academia and a-priori experience as to how this shit works.

Don posted excerpts from a letter to the U.N. general several posts ago... This caught my eye immediately - this particular sentiment, which I've heard repeated in the "cost vs consequence" mantra quite often and it's irritating. "Current climate policies pointlessly, grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, continuous electrical power...." It's wrong for multiple reason. One, it is not pointless - the fact that the author of this sentence doesn't see the point, or has difficulty with connecting with the truth and reality of what climate crisis actually means does not mean the point does not exist. It simply means... he/she is either lacking the capacity to see it, or [ perhaps ] is/are too predisposed to other ideologies, so much so that they block the perception of truth and reality in the first place. Two, Tough shit! Related to one, this "concern" is rooted in a mentality that either doesn't understand and/or appreciate the magnitude of what the f climate "apocalypse" means, or is incapable to perceptions that take the "longer view". Clue: There is no economy in a future that cannot support an economy - thus, the author(s) question and concern is rendered void and irrelevant. I mean, this idiot cares about the economics and guess what... economics is based on a human construct. I conceit of value that is just a shared delusion - turn out the lights. It's gone. It's not, gravity or electromagnetism, or chemistry rules of nature that we all are compelled to abide by or we die. Economy, and the ways and means by which humanity stuffs meaning and value into it, is an abuse of the former natural laws - think long and hard about that. Those abuses, leading to the consequences we now face, are consequences precipitating out of bad practices before fully exploring what it would mean to do the things history has done - that will mean the demise of economy as we know it. These people among us ... it just begins suspect they are genetically lacking some make-up in the very wiring of their minds and are incapably connect the dots - ..little frustration here, admittedly. but Jesus - In a whimsy euphemism, we've ignored the gravity of our actions and went about profligate chemistry, and now... we have an electromagnetic problem. When I read this opening statement by the author, they lost all credibility in my mind and I can't abide - it actually makes it difficult to even want to endure reading further.

Well light dawns on marble heads ... https://phys.org/news/2019-09-convince.html In my own proclivities to lament the short-comings of the climate -crisis forefather communication's shimmering gallery of what not to do ( go about attacking the fundamental scaffold of society's make up ), I'm also quotable as mentioning concerns to that/this affect. Those mistakes of yesteryear started this chain-work, where earlier defensive posturing led inexorably to a culture of denialism, and carte-blanche to be creative in the way people go about doing it because there's no moral culpability/sense of consequence for actually submitting one to a delusion and believing it... It's as much a psychological problem ( integrating sociologically) as a geo-physical one now, set into motion decades ago by bad diplomacy and dissemination of an impending crisis. And it's consequentially very bad now, because this is a present day reality where we have to move quicker, than the time it will take to convince the world it is in trouble. The earlier warning tact ...it really created a different sort of climate crisis, one that is just as pernicious and seemingly insurmountable as the environmental one, itself ... and thus, there two wars going on: one against ignorance and enlightenment about the ways and means of profligate Humanity, and the disparate cultural design against that enlightenment - the latter of which is an ingrained cultural climate of distrust and vitriol ( to mention, morality ), one that is multi-generational too. To be fair, not all of which is the climate-frontiersmen fault, either - there seems to be an entirely separate post -Industrial Revolution - ramification that is timed exquisitely badly but I won't get into that. It's not a novel for anyone of us to have mentioned this concern at the various "water cooler depots of the social-media," less than compendium ...no. Most know ...or have suspected for some time, that this is a sociological issue. However, the problem was not going away? And over the years, we are not seeing a very sophisticated ( if at all ) gap/diplomatic control measure being adopted by disseminators - other than misinformation and misuse for a special interest group's gain, but that's another digression.. There needs to be art in research exposure to the masses.

The EPO has wended its way into a negative phase state ... that’ll pretty much be the ballgame for the Alaskan sector as that’s a warm signal up there, and modeled to persist for the next week ...meanwhile an early cold plume and upslope snow event becoming increasingly more likely in the lower latitude Canadian high country /interior PAC NW ... as immediate downstream of there is a typical mass balanced loading pattern - classic teleconnector correlation ... There’s been a recurring theme over the last 15 years for unusually early cold and potential’s for snow in the middle latitudes of North America…very early. I believe it’s part of the pacific heat budget and the swelling of the Hadley cell that’s been noted/papered. This is forcing the AB phase of the Pacific basin ... thus intrusion of NP/EP blocking. This resulting in organized R-wave geometries that are unusually proficient cold deliveries earlier in transition seasons.

Yeah I was reading about that a few months ago. It's another observation in a cornucopia that suggest unanticipated accelerations - to put it nicely. Changes are simply outpacing many model-designs of when/where we would begin noticing specific warming effects amid specific systems - quite possibly because the "Kevin Baconism" of the larger gestalt and sensitive transmitted relationships are just unknown. It is ... disconcerting. I feel - personally - with growing conviction, that there could be "jolt" events. Scale and degree of "cataclysm" to be determined, but short duration adjustments that really didn't have much hope of being well predicted because they are/were brought about by previously unanticipated emerging "synergistic" feed-backs. I read a paper once about the basal flow rates of Antarctic causing the land-based aspect of the western ice sheet to accelerate well beyond climate models, and something similar in Greenland may already be taking place. If these thing happen, then...relative too, even accelerate further - no one can say that can't happen, when acceleration is already empirical and that's pretty much adios muchachos global coastal environments when/if land based ice lets go en masse.

Fortunately for the world ... there is no logical correlation whatsoever - even in a politicized climate debate, which in its self is absurd to begin with .. - where Nazi-ism has any iota of relationship in the mathematical justification vs denial of the greater climate debate/truth... That entire exchange (abv) could not be more patently absurd, and is entirely contrived nonsense. come on man... is anyone in here modestly intelligent -

"... Misplaced practice of granting climate change deniers a visible platform to spout their anti-scientific beliefs was showing signs of yielding to scientific reality ..." It's really, really difficult to do so in many cases, that is, not suppress opinions in a democratic society founded upon the basic principle ( among many others ) of freedom to expression ... Fact of the matter is, despite the ethical virtues, and intentions of the founding forefathers with the 1st Amendment's provisions of free speech ... that ethic was created in an era that was too different to really make the rigidity of it's interpretation as valued in the same way as it was when it was first necessarily formulated ...hundreds of years ago. The reality of our time is one parted company with the ethos/pathos of that long ago era. As an aside, part of the problem with the Constitution, that "bible" of American cultural heritage ... is that it really does not allow the natural process of cultural evolution take place - it stymies that process, a process that is now becoming increasingly more influenced by the entire spectrum of modern science and technologies. These forces have a power well beyond the imagination of those that engineered those principles back whence. This may seem like a bunch of long words,... but I really feel this 'smoldering dystopia' of untenable non-sustainability for Humanity that we're dancing around ... is more than just a climate-based one. And strategies to evoke necessary positive change, should be addressing this bigger sociological pallet of concerns, in how to handle contrived dissension. Yes...there are some opinions that not so much we "think" need to be suppressed, but if allowed to cultivate opinions ( immoral efforts, or ignorant ) would be so detrimental to the very survival of the species ( and countless others...) they cannot possibly be be heard - yet we are hand-cuffed to free-speech. I'm not questioning the virtuosity of that - just the philosophical quandary we've arrive upon as a civility. Hey, that's just as valid - if that's what society wants, to be dead ...by all means, dissension from consensus truths so that people can continue to feel good now - that's name of the game, then. That problem is, no one person should be jury and judge and force the silence of any tongue or pen - so it's a delicate matter. How to preserve the intention of free-speech, in an era where there is no time to educate - interesting dilemma.

Interesting... seems via the tenor in here - we've gone from speculation of a week or two earlier nadir to a late one?

No argument ... Firstly, as a primer, the arctic is very sensitive when nearing melt states; input therms mean much more to threshold periods than they do during deeply descended seasonality. This year the arctic domain space has been near, or at that threshold ( as has that also been a predicament becoming more common over the last decade, plausibly longer), where in lock step the Arctic Oscillation teleconnector become a reasonably well correlated/indicator for melt rates. -AO is a warm signal above the 60th parallel; where the N. Hemisphere has yet to begin its seasonal cascade, that becomes problematic ( newly so..) at onset of this new/re-asserting -AO mode.

I would suggest that it is actually the evidences that are the real trigger-points for that modality - not the science alone. I realize you never said or insinuated otherwise in your statement - I'm strictly speaking to the "straw-man" in the room, and my concern that people do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through the corporeal senses... Being told this or that, via science, is not enough. It's mere to them ...They need to be burned, and seeing whales wash-up on beaches with barbie doll components blocking their digestive tracks, fair-weather high tides swallowing island nations, and suffering heat waves a degree she of biblical apocalypses, are just ( unfortunately .. .) what are necessary to get this message successfully into minds. And those evidences ..an entire raft of which are not mentioned here, but are televised, pale in severity the future holds at current profligate pace of Humanity. Life as we know it is going to change ... or has to. Certain convenience delivery has one of two options: change; unable to change. Change may come via technologies... biodegradable plastics... sustainable green energy sources... etc..etc... and these technologies have been around for decades, unexplored or shelved, btw. But it's a race... enters the unable to change and ...well, that ends any discussion of any kind, everywhere - time will tell.

Typical behavior of a sensitive system at the nadir - it's responding to everything

Occasionally we'll get a click-by shooting by some nimrod troll that's too stupid to realize they aren't making the impact they think they are, and are in fact only sounding like this guy ... But those aren't really the typical forum user. Most of y'all and the regulars in here really are not the target of these moguls and/or celebrities of the denial-sphere. They're targeting their constituencies, telling them what they wanna here. Morality and ethics have nothing to do with it. They have an easily life if their constituencies are happy - and what makes them happy? This clear and obvious logically flawed vomit they spew from their bully pulpits...

Fwiw ... and I'm sure others are aware of this - or should be... The mean nadir going back a decade doesn't typically occur until the 15th thru the 20th ... There are a few years as others have noted where the minimum is achieved at an earlier date. Anyway, I suspect that the momentum and back-ground do not really favor the earlier nadir scenario. Whether that results in historic lows, notwithstanding. I suspect whether we do see that or not, we're losing ice until the Equinox. It'll be interesting to see -

Well ...yeah, and in that same spirit of "semantic fairness" ... the rise in the NAM hasn't been exactly overwhelmingly coherent... The lay-folk web-access site over CPC has it more like languidly elevating beginning two weeks ago ... finally succeeding at some point over the next 10 days. So, yeah. It's not a hugely convincing modality as you/we can see. Nevertheless...some slowing in melt rates is plausibly related. The thing is, the Arctic is sensitive to phase changes because of physics to put it bluntly. The thermal tolerance for ice->water->ice is narrow. Such that subtle variations in thermal contribution may have a seemingly larger proportionate response than one might think or be aware, if we're talking about some hypothetical formula of ( sun + dark vs ice covered albedo ocean surface + salinity variance + 1°C ) ... alter any one of these variables and the system presence a change, but if more than one of them gets altered that significance hockey-sticks in a real hurry... and so on... However the real equation of environmental factors that determines ice retention in the summer really works... we do know that the system is sensi ... So I find it intriguing that the GEFs begin signaling a relaxed negative Annular mode and then a week to two weeks later ...monitoring showed slowing... That doesn't seem like coincidence? But you and I are not parked out on the ice cap in a research hut either.

What really needs to be done is a deeper statistical analysis of past -AO summers. A good start; of the three 'hot months,' June, July, and August, when ever the three averaged negative in the Northern Annual Mode, what were the temperature anomaly distributions those years, both as scalar values, but also relative to the oscillation's SD curves. That kind of analysis might begin to expose a secondary trend ... revealing at least the plausibility of systemic change ( the elephant in the room .. notwithstanding), change too often lost in the din of climate noise. For example, suppose there was a -.5 SD mean in the AO in 1955, and the hemispheric temperatures were X. Then, in 2019, there was a -.5 SD mean, and the hemispheric temperatures were Z ... ( X - Z ) = some positive or negative value that in fairness, may not mean much? However... if this were expanded to a bigger comparative population, such that utilizing (x̄ - ȳ), ... where (y1+ y2+ ... + yn)/n = ȳ and the same for x̄ ... if the result equaled a positive number, that is a better finger-print for actual change.. I'm sure this sort of number juggling is being performed everywhere there is a reputable scientific process focused in environmental/atmospheric research/problem solving, but for some reason, I haven't found any published research that specialized in a relative AO to temperature anomaly distribution approach like that ... as a 2ndary precipitant study that might help to crystalize an image through the obfuscating blur of anomalies ( often used to hide truths and lies eh hm ). Primer: ... Negative NAMs correlate with warm temperature anomalies above the (*) 60th parallel. During those periods, (**) cool temperatures tend to occur below the 60th parallel, known as mid latitudes. Naturally, this overall pattern/distribution of temperature anomalies above and below the 60th parallel ... reverses during positive Annular Modes. ( * that ~ demarcation of latitude around the hemisphere does not take into account topographical/geologic imposing variances, and also, fluctuates higher and lower in latitude depending upon the season). ( ** relative to normal AND "pattern" ...a latter distinction often lost and/or strategically elided in efforts of deniers, as well as less learned in general. Relativity matters... a warm pattern may be so warm in 1900, and that same pattern may be cooler(warmer) at another time and space of different geological/environmental arena, a.k.a., the European heat waves now, versus similar pattern manifestation back whence). This has been a rather robustly +AO(NAM) summer. The Alaskan warm summer ... really should be compared to past positive annular mode summers, and also, other northern latitude/geographies around the hemisphere compared. Intuitively ...this is almost tongue-in-cheek and anyone objective has a pretty solid idea what the results are likely to look like ...Oh, some value of positive across the board, where -1 SD summer ins 1890' did not produce the same wamrth as this year...and so forth, but, taking a study through the arithmetic caries more weight for everyone save the eerily growing numbers of population that as an entirely separate and sociological concern, have come under the impression that is okay to say and act in adversarial 'no' in the face of Universal fact(s), that the right to do so is merely enough to refute the reality the do not want to accept. Very recently ( spanning the last two weeks ) the mode has been relaxing toward neutral/positive, and is forecast to continue to do so into September. This is just a heads up; it's an intra seasonal ...at times, intra-weekly time-scale teleconnector, so this is not a statement/intention for seasonal forecast.

I haven't been a part of this conversation stream recently so pardon if this is more at obtrusive ... It might ( or not ) be worth noting that the GEFs have been elevating the mode of the NAM since ~ mid August. In a vacuum, that putts the "had been forecast" part of this bold statement in question for me. As we know, a positive 'Annular Mode reverses the temperature anomaly correlations and would result/conducive to better ice retention. This is purely linear-statistical discussion point, however, and does not consider the bevy of other environmental factors that "synergistically" can also effect melt rates ...such as salinity variance and momentum, dark sea vs albedo surface absorption of solar...etc etc etc... Nonetheless, some of the graphical slowing in recent 10 days does actually fit that GEFs modality of the NAM in at least conceptual acceptance -

You may just be in hyperbole there but we are definitely close to any rank inside of top 10

Fwiw -the GEF -based NAM numbers have been elevating and in fact, are positive in the initialization as of last night. They are forecasting a brief dip back to neutral or perhaps modestly negative SD, before an even more robustly positive modality out toward week two. This observation of reversing pressure patterns is probably related to that - I haven't see then EPS rendition, but prognostics going back some ten days began to suggest that the annular mode may flip back then. I suggested that it might alleviate the melt rate ... slowing it down some. Heh, it may just rescue 2019 from tapping 2012 on the shoulder.

Mm... No not likely. "Year round," as in 'never' gaining ice back at all? That's not likely to be a reality in anyone's lifetime. If you/we mean that N. Hemisphere summers experience transient open sea conditions; that may occur at some point. Who knows if that would be a decade. Timing such a reality would depend upon how "accelerated" the acceleration is, as per recent studies go. There will be an ice-cap-transition period where there are summers with open seas that fluctuate back to ice cover the following winters. In fact, it's entirely possible that would happen with irregularity, too - some years the summer retains a small ice-cap, and then the next year ... the summer sees it disappear again. Only to repeat either scenario. That may go on for quite a while actually, long before any kind of Paleo./eocene thermal max -related sort of redux fully takes over. Anyway, there's going to be some growing pains. These longer term changes can and do take place in shorter orders of time, and acceleration in the present climate models, as well as empirical data do send alarming signals that "shorter" may favored over longer. But, we have to remember, shorter in the context of geology is still a bit of an existential misnomer. But this is not to dissuade you It's better for the world if folks are open-minded, vigilant toward more dire plausibility, because obviously it is the dire realities that cause the extinctions - not the relative utopias.

It is long been scienced and introduced via attribution studies/papers, just how sensitive the Arctic is. The question of ice morphology would certainly play into that mystique, especially when the domain is "teetering" with thermal resonance that is near melt point(s) - and there may be some variation there, too, based upon saline content. Up a degree, ice melts; down a degree; it-honeycombs/softens, but may remain in tact. I was just mentioning to Will that the NAM is rising. Those areas recently released could refreeze, but either way, the ablation rates would slow in a system that is on the thermal fence so to speak, pretty markedly over a rather narrow range of temperature input.

That's what I've been hitting at yup. We'll see. The AO mode is shifting more positive in the means. Not sure what the general level of knowledge is re that particular atmospheric index but, when it is positive, we tend to warm at mid latitudes around the 45th parallel of the Hemi, while the polar vortex strengthens. That is concomitant with height falls and cold genesis within the mean PV - so essentially diametrical to our correlations. +AO cold up there, warm down here; -AO vice versa... What I am getting at is that maybe we see a slowing coming into the end here and that bumps 2019 out of contention for top apocalypse indicator, to something more like we be dire-f'ed