Typhoon Tip

It's tied into everything ! you're kidding right - .. see this is the problem... articulate people that seem surprised when they stumble into some inter-dependencies, both direct and probably of even more importance, indirect, - I'm not saying that just to use long words man. Everything we are doing in western-based civility is non-sustainably related to what we're doing to the planet in order to carry on the way we are. There is no disconnect - sorry ...there isn't... oy

Bootleg autumnal air mass .... This is purely oceanic air driven clear to Albany... 850's support upper 70s. Innocuous looking synoptic structure, mid and u/a is creating a weird surface pressure pattern... That high pressure really should settling more actively south of the region but won't - which isn't making a great deal of physical sense... but here we are. In addition to "floating" highs... we have heights over 582 DAM ...and we can't make 70 F ?? This isn't exactly an autumn trophy foisting so much as it's a cool enthusiasts getting dumb f'n lucky- That said, we've been above normal for so long ... I guess eventually even fixed die will accidentally roll a snake eyes

Funny you say this... Because the conversation/preparation... seriousness, et all, needs to shift to the other concern - because there is no economy in that failed world. ...that's part of the problem.... Not of it matters. No one gets that - and it will lead to a surplus in that particular emotion -

I see... yeah..that's true - greed is not a stable motivator... either -

Meh...that Euro run is not that cool guys...

I'm not into economics ...other than a person belief that money is merely a shared delusion of principle value that is not really based upon anything in nature - That said, since economics is based ultimately on the industrialization ( profligate as it may be most of the time ....) ... of natural resources... there is an obvious inter-dependence here with the ecology and the climate, both. Sounds like y'all are trying to ignore or elide the climate aspect in the overall gestalt of the problem we face as a species... Hopefully I'm wrong - because we cannot afford to have the faux realities inertial in the general population - even though we do...hahaha All these system can serve to destablize one another. Just sayn' There is synergy in failure, too

Mmm... depends on what one means by "...We're adaptable..." You may not be in that group if something were to happen tomorrow related to climate crisis. Fact of the matter is.... a 70 ...80 ...99 percent extinction rate ...that's not really adapting... It's killing a lot of people.... To mention, the other species we take down with it... ( We are in mass extinction btw... an aspect merely not popularized by big media and/or the inter-connectivity of all this other tech) Beyond... for a select few, adaptation "might" precipitate out of that... but that doesn't come until much later after the dust settles... You and your progeny are highly likely NOT a part of the dystopian recovery/reality. But you know... maybe all infantile technological species - which for all our conceits...we're amoebae compared to what's likely out there... or plausibly so - go through these correction events, self-inflicted? We start out... we get smart enough to blow ourselves to kingdom come... And some few manage not to, that's why the cosmos is "teeming with advanced sentience" ... easily detectable heh...yeeeeah. Here's a thought experiment: Human adaptation includes something that no other species that has existed on this planet ( that we are presently aware) also possessed ... Ingenuity. Oooh But how far does "outfoxing one's ecological proxy" really go? Or, most important should be the question, should it go - Ingenuity and creative manipulation of environment to "improve" survival prospects might just have outpaced any kind of collateral "checks-and-balances" evolving along the way ... We are certainly capable of seeing cause-and-effect... Obviously. But, that ability is still not built in enough? Certainly insufficient to stop and or provide some sort of fore-spectrum of consequences ... in using ingenuity. Part of the catch-22... Nature doesn't preserve species' characterizations through successive generations where said genetic mutations do not serve to improve the survival prospects of successive generations. ... Up to this point, the advances ( technologies ) we've achieved did just that - but when you up-pace ? You end up with a Plastic problem. A global warm problem. I rare and untenable mass pandemia threat... Nuclear wars... And by the way...these aspects are subjective of one another... It's naive and almost child like to think of these corrective events as one or the other being more likely...when they are interconnected. Global warming --> dwindling resource and migratory has already destablized Baltic states ... and is at least partial destablizing Europe. etc..etc... We're walking DNA-micro-plastic paradigms. And we don't even know what that may mean at a "molecular machinery" level, either. Oh, arrogantly? Of course we know... micro plastic is inert. ...Until it's not... There are crustaceous organisms at the bottom of the f'um Mariner Deep trench in the western Pacific... like 6.5 miles deep where the Pac geologic plate is subducting into the bowls of the Mantle ... and they scurry about with micro plastic in their digestive tracts. Boulder Colorado... and University scientists have found micro-plastic in thunderstorm rains... Saying we're adaptable as a species isn't false.... but that's not rescuing anything... not proportionally and responsibly...

Of all that is said, of mouth or pen in this era of Internet ... this first bold statement above is among the very most important. And, that includes everything in reality in that comparison... Humanity stands upon the proverbial railway to the future. While the iron beneath our feet has long begun to whir, we ignore the vibration, in lieu of protestation, in lieu of self-righteous ... materialism, vapidity, ironically, sans the real sense for self-preservation. All of that which is coveted is tantamount to arguing about the color shoes we wear to the engagement. I have come to the realization that this "blithe" is really a sociological problem ... much more so than a geophysical one. Oh... pumping out an undecillion tons of Industrial farts is going to stink up the atmosphere and alter the geophysics one way or the other. But, that was always short-sighted. It's not pumping its self. Pretty obvious when put in that context, yet that simple arithmetic is remarkably unregistered nonetheless. If we must put that another way, consider the nature of "A" in the totality of A-G and W. We cannot have "anthropogenic" forcing without collaborative/collective social behavior. By definition ...sociological. So... some asshole denier who has a small amount of argumentative acumen ...but a whole truckload of immorality... comes back with a tired mantra, ' ...Not denying mankind's presence (bargaining lie tactic); just that it's not causing the change ( as though the former logically leads to this conclusion ( embarrassingly false)....' Two discrete points of logic: 1 ... does it really seem reasonable that after it took the Earth hundreds of millions of years to sequester reactive Carbon out of these systems that interact with the atmosphere, and we come along and liberate it all back to said systems inside of just 500 years ... without consequence? That cannot be disputed by any species on the surviving side of any evolutionary tract think about that. 2ndly, ...if/when there is any question as to the pernicious influence you are having in any system you are intrinsically and entirely dependent upon..., do you keep doing whatever it is you are doing while you figure it out? At the point of these logical contentions ... the denier capacity to engage in any discussion that involves non-acceptance ( even conditional acceptance is dubious at best), ends. Any attempt to do so summarily rendered false and futile. Yet... people attempt to do so. ...Incredible. They don't seem connect these incontrovertible axioms with shutting the fVck up... NOW! The reasons are varied... there is some blithe... some immorality. Mostly, it's just the specter of it is untenable. It's because all other animals will not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive via one of the corporeal sense. If the organism can't see it, smell it, taste it, touch it, or hear it... it doesn't exist. Sonjay Gupta recently wrote one of his op-eds about this very same aspect ... If I may closely paraphrase, 'Human beings are not wired to understand climate change,' - but it's really one in the same. Sound familiar? It should ...because the specter of GW....AGW....climate change... whatever euphemism you choose to describe this finality we are heading toward, simply does not register very readily to one of the corporeal sense of the Human condition. The moment denying results in poking into a testicle, every time... the asshole shuts the fVck up NOW.

haha ... In a pre apocalyptic GW context ...that's an Onion headline

What Invest are y'all talking about ?

What leaps out to me also about this rendition above is that its got a broad 540 dm closed isohypses ...with a bit of a widely spaced ( i.e., gradient is weak ) relative to what is more typical the case when you see closing, negative tilted troughs, with the next contour designation ( 546 ). These are actually anomalously elevated for that spatial layout/synoptic behaviors. This system was like a Mona Lisa - looked fantastic from a hundred feet but get in closer and ooph...not so attractive. Details 'ill get cha. It seems in addition to being in a marginal atmosphere to begin with, which may or may not be outer causal with the ENSO stuff that season ( I suspect it was ..) the system was lacking some depth/dynamics in there. It's possible that a colder in situ air mass 'feeds back' and helps the former ...and the two sort of "synergistically" enhance the cold solution ... But looking over the total chart space ... the real whip mechanics are really plowing through the west/middle latitudes... and that's sort of killing the wave lengths between it and the Plains... which may be transitively not helping the system in the east. Interesting but either way ... I'd like to see a closed smaller region inside that broad of a 540 surface ... plumbed to least 534 dm... Probably that keeps the core heavier echoes "blue" on ptype scans.... These things are textured when it comes to cause and effect... The 988 surface reflection seems a bit deep (then) considering the overall observation ( abv ) - particularly if/when the system is/was cold maxed early and actually anomalously weak relative to negative tilt and so forth.. That would be essentially true in simple sense. However, there can be other reasons not inherently obvious at first glance ... The ambient surface pressure appears to be slightly below normal to begin with when considering all fields. These systems then achieve pressure relative to those initial conditions - not the climate signal. That's how we have to approach... Feb 1978 was an opposite effect of that - the storm bottomed ( I think ...) briefly at 974 mb ... but spent most of it's time during the capture and Fuji Wara around the deep layer vortex in the mid 980s... These are substantively below climate... of course. But, not as deep as one would expect for system that had governing kinematics at its disposal that had never before, or since... been quite so idealized. As it were... ambient surface pressures were unusually high prior to the bomb back whence... Such that the depths actually - relative to that elevated environment - were by virtue exceptional. During the evolution of 1978 Feb ... a sprawling multi-nodal anticyclone was situated N-NE of MN by just a short distance ...with arms (housing the smaller nodes) spanning S and E to southeastern Canada and the TV regions... Essentially, enveloping a near perfect mechanical synergistic-wrought event, inside an equally and opposing atmospheric anomaly. That juxtaposition was like a "rogue wave" statistically... made for one helluva a PGF. etc...etc...

I like my seasons early loaded ... heat in may and June seems more rare than snow in November and December ... which is obviously a function of our latitude favoring the cold side by inches ... that said it's been few since we earlied either end.

NO... I don't think we do haha But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season... When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one..

I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about? The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938. There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm... Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics - Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway... The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck" ... and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay... I can dig it

SandySurvivor - If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period.... That said, at this time this is no threat to you. NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous. Nothing. This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency. Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint: THERE ARE NONE. It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included... that tells us there are no signs. Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise... by all means, enlighten us. Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME. Am I gettin' thru. Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this..

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ? .... sure... Problem is.... 'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

Just on the rip n read surface of that 1998 description - and I do have a vague memory of that oddity ... - the Feb/1998 sounds like a warm NINO east coastal storm... Not a-typical to get nor'easters to be wetter/milder in ++ENSO, at least per in house discussions back in my UML/Lab days ... interesting...

I've see so many of those analysis and reanalysis and dissections .... know what it really comes down to? geometry. That's all If there is a positive object NE/E of New England ...and a negative object W .... and a TC is approaching the outer Bahamas ...that's A ... If you don't got A ... go do something else... If you do see A ( modeled and so forth...) the rest of the story is particular vectors between those two basic, governing constructs... By typology to that circumstance, you will observe obvious deep layer wind components ( ..ie, 'steering' ) moving concerted S to N ... with variations therein determining more precisely where any TC that gets "sucked in" ultimately ends up. Sandy was too much positive object and too much negative object ... causing a violent and highly anomalous "left hook" and acceleration ... The easterly anomaly into that region of the M/A during that trajectory pathway was comparable to the normal westerly zonal wind ... going the wrong way Typically...there is always some negative west - positive east arrangement of larger scaled features ...whenever there is a TC "recurving" between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S.... There has to be... that set up is the only way ( physically ) to scaffold a steering field/forcing .... The question simply is... magnitude of each ... and how those geometrically enhance more or less idealized trajectories ... at Long Island versus more skewed and a miss.

Flow essentially parallels the front ... The clearing presses SEward pretty much at whatever the rate or the entire trough displacement is... But you can see that happening on hi res vis loop.. slowly. Everyone sees sun today ... less SE...

Maker's Mark ... ? - or something more top-o like Cognac this time -

Highly unusual synopsis evolving thru Sat... not often you barely close a 582 isohypses and that's enough to drill a chilly east wind to Albany... Also ... giant difference between comparatively tall heights and low thickness. Don't typically see 25 DAM differentials between those two metrics. And it's local just to S and C NE. warmer in eastern Ontario. A typology more akin to April seeing cold seclusion like that. East wind driving into 582 heights. Huh

The busts of the 1980s were uniquely bad man.... Those bust types you describe ...they don't hold a candle to pithy cryo dystopian illustrations that end up flat out partly sunny - We're talking about diametric purity... If we wanna get down to it,....every storm, even the over-producing ones in the general scope have someone somewhere that got nobbed - Even storms that for the most part righteously qualify as regional busts .... someone somewhere, did perhaps salvageable... Nope - bend over ... death BY Koabunga .. no questions asked... no exceptions conferred .... zero room for spin - discussion.... over

Yup ...add that to the list... I remember that one clearly ... 1989 ... Not sure what was up with that era and the technology. I mean, obviously ... Walter Drag and gang were not actually twiddling their mustaches scheming up ways to send doe-eyed young minds to therapy ... But, the models must've just routinely over set up scenarios? I met him on a couple occasions... One such time was back in 2005 at the SNE Storm Conference down in Brookline... By then, the scars had long since heeled and plus, I had been through under grad by then and had developed my own appreciation for how difficult deterministic weather forecasting is in this market/climate ...etc..etc... The guy earned a pass - ...Still, I didn't think to ask. I'd love to have a conversation with him and learn what it was like for them to set up civility for some of those debacles... That's an excellent way to look at the 1990s - btw... I like that turn of phrasing there... The 'prophecies' substantiated by the glut of the 2000 ( paraphrasing of course...)... and how 1992 really was a watershed season...

It's all relative of course... The decade was going badly ...then, there were glimmer of hopes in 1986 with a Novie event ( I think 1987 had one two... ), but the season didn't do much afterwards... Back to shit fests... But overall, 1987 wasn't terrible... There was a surprise event that rung up 6-10" in metro west ...supposed to be a glopper... But cold air was entrenched and way under estimated by man and models... When teeny flakes broke out and the visibility dropped to 1/4 mile it was pretty clear the forecast was in trouble... I really only remember a handful of ordeals that whole decade, purely because it was just banal, uninspired boring winters - it was really about the great nothing happening decade. And what I do remember .. disappointments out-numbered the production. There were a couple of bomogenesis events in those suggestive season years ... 1987 I think. They made the decade inimitably worse. How could a bomb make the decade worse? Well, they were supposed to redux '78 but ended up only clipping the Cape, while not much farther NW of the Canal managed dim orb sun through virga exploded cirrus. These storms were egregiously advertised... saturated air-waves criss-crossing electromagnetic death threats. I mean people were getting scared for what snow could do to cut off their heads... We were collectively under full-bird blizzard warnings clear to Fitchburg, MA and the western hills of Worcester. If you were old enough to be more into the TWC ( the only portal to the larger weather community available to the turbo dork with stolen lunch money in that era - this was pre web by a goodly margin mind you .. ), you had just enough cognition and knowledge to really feel the rub-in the NWS conspired to commit ... I mean, one of those storm there was a 4th period blizzard watch posted with dire ticker warnings scrolling on about cryospheric dystopian grid failure in hurricane wind pushed choke snow clear to almost SE Vt ... partly sunny ... Oh, but having to walk numb-faced to school ( after all ) .... in -9 F in 30 mph wind with blistering lips made it all totally worth it! Anyone sentient of matters since ... circa 1992 ...really has no idea what "bust" truly means on a spiritual level... It's like that scene on the roof in Shawshank...when Biren Hadley was languishing on about having to pay taxes on 30 thousand dollars in front of butt raped roofing-tar glazed immates ...and Morgan Freeman's character, "Red," says, " Oh. Poor Hadely - ain't he got it rough" That's 'bout how I feel for anyone since 1992 that never went through, or is aware, of the former years, that has the temerity to feel 'disappointed' .. about anything. Like shut the f up man. The era wasn't just about low results - it was about the dark art of specifically designed busts.. The decade was about "rubbing it in" - the greatest plausible set ups relative to perceivable reality ... There's also another thing about that era... in a lot of ways, it was made horrifically worse by the fact that weather-related graphics and delivery were becoming central entertainment in News delivery - ... I'm not really old enough to remember this, but I have seen old recordings of on-camera Mets actually using Sharpies to draw features on flip boards ... But look out! Here comes the age of graphics to turn it into the real lube-you-up cinema... I guess what I'm saying is that "ignorance is bliss" ? so to speak... I mean, if one was younger, they may have wanted snow and merely didn't see it as much.. And that sucked, ...but I don't think that would be as bad as this other journey.