Typhoon Tip

Yup Satellite lies at times though - and radar sometimes gets the same dishonest memo. Can't count how many times in the winter I've crashed red-eyed and weary late at night after studying chart after chart showing miss, while fighting rad and sat presentations now-casting doom. Feelin' pretty damn good about the positive bust about to befall upon unsuspecting denizens, only to wake up partly sunny - "that's impossible!" Only the irony here is that we are trying to disavow a model for being more impacting - kind of the opposite.

Thought so too - It may be why some of the ensemble members and the actual tropical suite's shown some recent right bias in the track guidance. TPC didn't seem to comment on it as of 5am but there 11 should be out shortly -

You said "models" ... again, wtf were you talking about -

Mm. I'm not ready to dismiss something like the NAM out of hand on this... The now's in the sky are setting things up ominously ...That frontal band is suggestively tilting slightly negative (slowing) as it creeps east over PA/NY ... Meanwhile, plume of ongoing cold cloud tops is fisting N toward the south coast right now. Slow evolution tho. It's just that the whole look of the thing doesn't immediately dismiss the notion that some impressive PW air would get sucked up into said front as it limps through.

Anyway ... the peregrinations of Kevin aside ... It's interesting that right down the NAM meso products, 32, 12 and 3 KM, they are all setting up a PRE or quasi PRE behavior over RI/E. Mass. Incredibly narrow in the 12. A narrow region appears bombarded across a 6 hour window, spanning just 20 or even a 10 mile wide axis of training convection. There is a front limping through and it briefly links up with the general cyclonic tapestry of the TC as it lift NNE on a curving trajectory. No James - this isn't going to hit the Cape ... Anyway, right on the frontalysis axis they get smoked, with exceptionally steep gradient on the western side.

The models ARE all east - wtf are talking about...

Yeah ...I mentioned this in the tropical thread the other day ...the NAM's been flirting with a PRE set up there. But it's complicated because 1, the NAM ( at least 'use to' ) carry on with a NW-W Atlantic bias of extending cyclonic influence too far NW. If it is doing so with this thing, it may be faux manufacturing said PRE. Also, the TC isn't very well formulated which somewhat strains belief - a little - that it would have that much forcing capacity in the total tropopsheric synoptics through the period. Who knows but we've seen the NAM dry up big QPF forecasts for other reasons with regularity too -

That may be the case ... absolutely. I am an honest genuine poster that qualifies everything with confidence adjectives. As in, "suppposition/hypothesis" - honestly, I was just basing it on observations now. Perhaps V is deducing modeling - I mean duh, he says 'next two weeks' I also did wonder if there was a large K-wave event rippling through the hemisphere when I noted the dipole construction of UVM tendencies. I didn't get into it because unfortunately, folks tl;dr everything these days in lieu of instant gratification from the psychotropic addiction of media spectra, and if they are not getting overly stimulated NOW they move on. Cute ancillary aspect of high- tech that is destroying the "enjoyment" much less virtuosity of a good read - blah blah... Conceding to forces one cannot control - I just kept imagining to my self, any such event ripple passing through and the current dipole might tend to reverse? Then, residual ( because they were initially robust ) TW then time with a better Atlantic. See... KW don't absolutely mean anything. We can work with them here. ha Actually since I posted that I saw the Euro spins up a TC almost immediately leaving Africa on D 9 ... interesting or not

It's a fine analysis by a couple of mid-Century starched dry pasty robots of early era Television so concomitant with that era of American history. But man - how egregious was the sexism embedded in that? It was amusing enough when the nerd with the high-tech pointer, pants pulled up way too high around a frame that's substantially frail compared to woman of today ( raised by hormone meats no less ), had the audacity to referred to "Donna" as "she." Ooh. That pushed up a smile right there! But the hilarity kicked in when he grinds it. He actually interrupting hims self to say, "And as it - or to be more precise, I should say "she" - " ... Man, that was awesome...

By the way ... I also am wondering if we may see a more robust period of TWs squirt off western Africa over over the next two weeks at some point. Not for not, right amid the climate bell-curve anyway. However, there are some clues in play that favor that. The orientation/distribution of larger scale UVM tendencies has arrived at a dipolar negative western -central N. Atlantic, with a pervasive and coherent positive tendency over all of the African continent extending east to west along the sub-Saharan TW conduit region. There are features also embedded in that monsoonal band a bit more robustly now than prior times. Supposition/hypothesis... But my personal feeling is that ... yes, Saharan Dust/dry air has been present this year, but frankly, I've monitored that metric spanning some fifteen years and this year has not seemed appreciably worse than any other year - despite other's opinions to the contrary. Nevertheless, I am willing to nod to that mitigate as being present to some degree. What really stands out to me as causal in the dearth thus far is the lower TW frequency emerging off of Africa/in transit prior to doing so. If you mix up weak wave tendencies with SAL mitigation ( and it probably doesn't help that the QBO is statistically out of phase for greater activity this season ) that combination is more likely culpable. If we are right about a period of stronger TW ejecta off of Africa, that might give the CV region some entertainment value.

Remarkable agreement among the GFS ensemble 12-member suite provided at PSU E-Wall's web-source, that Dorian will modestly intensify through 120 hours, ending in a position abeam of midriff Florida over the western Bahamas. I haven't seen the individual EPS members but the blend is a bit more smeared comparing to the GEFS. Nevertheless, they do average a weakly bounded cyclone in that similar vicinity just E or partially eclipsing land at 120 hours. One curious note: both the EPS and the GEPs ( Canadian ensembles ) are attempting to develop what looks similar to an October 'climate low' in the mid Gulf - it's not a real Glossary expression. Anyway, the GEFs do hint of this, but it is much more coherently materialized in these other two ensemble cluster means. I'm curious why they are doing so, but have hypothesis - From late September thru early Decembers, it is not uncommon for models to attempt this sort of Gulf of Mexico vortex look. This is classic looking in that regard, the only problem is, vastly earlier than normal. Nevertheless, I suspect it wise to consider it in the same vane. The rub there is that sometimes quasi-asymmetric systems do sort of bend over initially from baroclinic instability at that time of year, in the Gulf, and then acquire warm symmetry in time. Usually up underneath an early/amplified Perennial North American Pattern ( PNAP ) construct when it does. I'm wondering if these models are over sensitive; they have been trying at least excuse imaginable on every run to suppress the mid latitude summer ... all summer long, with western heights, and structuring some sort of trough ( usually over blown) back East. It may be more than muse to consider that entity. Because the vitality and most important, reality of any such object in the Gulf at the beginning of the middle range would play a plausible role in the future of Dorian. Some of these operational versions attempt to then vaguely Donna-analog Dorian.. Heh, fun entertainment but, too many uncertainties concomitant with tropical modeling at that range, and particularly endemic to the pattern next week is uncertainty. The introduction of trough in both space and time, inducing that coastal scrape this is all new, and troughs have been tending to flatten in mid ranges --> short range all season long. Past doesn't dictate the future... What are we leaving out here ... basically .1% confidence out of 99.9% uncertainty.

Mm... No not likely. "Year round," as in 'never' gaining ice back at all? That's not likely to be a reality in anyone's lifetime. If you/we mean that N. Hemisphere summers experience transient open sea conditions; that may occur at some point. Who knows if that would be a decade. Timing such a reality would depend upon how "accelerated" the acceleration is, as per recent studies go. There will be an ice-cap-transition period where there are summers with open seas that fluctuate back to ice cover the following winters. In fact, it's entirely possible that would happen with irregularity, too - some years the summer retains a small ice-cap, and then the next year ... the summer sees it disappear again. Only to repeat either scenario. That may go on for quite a while actually, long before any kind of Paleo./eocene thermal max -related sort of redux fully takes over. Anyway, there's going to be some growing pains. These longer term changes can and do take place in shorter orders of time, and acceleration in the present climate models, as well as empirical data do send alarming signals that "shorter" may favored over longer. But, we have to remember, shorter in the context of geology is still a bit of an existential misnomer. But this is not to dissuade you It's better for the world if folks are open-minded, vigilant toward more dire plausibility, because obviously it is the dire realities that cause the extinctions - not the relative utopias.

Wondering if that NAM's "Predecessor Rain Event" should be taken seriously or not. In one school, the NAM tends to over-emphasize the NW influence of cyclonic events as a general bias tendency, over the far west and northwest Atlantic, concerning extra-tropical cyclones. Not sure if that also is true for weakly bounded and/or developing TCs that are in the process of being sucked up into the westerlies. Right now, TD 6 looms out there. It has the old single tilted CB look, with shearing going on from the N clearly suggestive via various satellite channels. But, there is a coherent llv closed circulation and it sets proximal to deep oceanic heat content that is clearly coupled to the lower troposphere ...so given any relaxation at all, that system ( I would not be surprised) may get better organized at a proficient rate. This would be a short window of opportunity - although, in a lowering SRS inside the westerly channeling blah blah. In any case, as it is moving up about 400 km or so east of the mid Atlantic, we see a NAM QPF eruption/banded in a quasi arc extending roughly mid Long Island to NE Mass. That's pretty textbook "PRE," as they tend to occur on the polar side of TCs that are in the processes of recurving into the westerlies. That definition doesn't really discuss or limit the event based upon how well structure the the involved TC is - so the extend of organization may not mater. I'm not sure the NAM is very trustworthy in this specific area of deterministic weather forecasting - I'm guessing no? But it is by definition a meso model so -

Heh. Think we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2019/08/26/farmers-almanac-winter-weather-forecast-boston-cold-snow/?fbclid=IwAR13mlYIjJgUCLcjZdZjFq7ipCPrIfs_a_g-jCswc-LJgK-Hv1ruBlXE4yU

Oh I have no doubt we book end this season with an Octo cold snap .... seems to be a recurring theme since 2000... Lot of Pre 'ween days with grapple/snow mixed and virga-exploded CAA CU ...too many to be an accident. My hypothesis is that the Pac is favoring the AB phase since - few reasons why, but it's attributing - I think - to unusual early cold snaps... The foot print of that potential probably starts with extended "crisp" looks in September.

Well... this morning was 45 at my place down in the good ole dependable cold hole of Nashoba Valley. I gotta tell ya - man - climbing out of that valley after rad cooled overnights can be something. I've seen the temp pop 12 F just between my place in Ayer, and that interchange between Rt 2 and 190 N. The hill coming down out of Worcester on 290 E always maxes there. I've seen that be 16 F above my driveway temp.. As it was today, it 46 when I pulled out, and 57 on that hill.

We need to divide this sub-forum into two again... One for those who disregard warm seasons. One for those who disregard cold seasons. Of course... that would never work, because the fun is the vitriol, and the vitriol has its origin because either side wants to ruin the preferential experience for other, simply because it is somehow an affront to them to witness other people's merriment when they are miserable. haha...

I was just wondering that exact same thing, but about NW VT. Like, what if there were two bad reads up there bangin' out +5's over reality all the time. I wonder if the dependability of these particular temperature products are like the clowny snow maps -

I wonder how much of that was real, unimpeded diurnal variation attributed, and how much was I dunno, upslope clouds all day keeping things down on the top, but merely average at night. The impetus being, a "real" cool air mass as opposed to one being adulterated by other factors. There is a difference. If it's 63 F pounding rain in 570 thickness, that feels like a cold air mass for summer. That is no declaration or accusation but those blue nodes (Steve's variation) seem almost local-study in scale? Sure the general domain above roughly RUT-CON is coolish, but the far NW corner of VT was modestly warm too. That kind of "island" distribution less than smoothly pervasive, it makes me wonder if that's a bootleggy deal to some degree ( pun intended) .

It is long been scienced and introduced via attribution studies/papers, just how sensitive the Arctic is. The question of ice morphology would certainly play into that mystique, especially when the domain is "teetering" with thermal resonance that is near melt point(s) - and there may be some variation there, too, based upon saline content. Up a degree, ice melts; down a degree; it-honeycombs/softens, but may remain in tact. I was just mentioning to Will that the NAM is rising. Those areas recently released could refreeze, but either way, the ablation rates would slow in a system that is on the thermal fence so to speak, pretty markedly over a rather narrow range of temperature input.

That's what I've been hitting at yup. We'll see. The AO mode is shifting more positive in the means. Not sure what the general level of knowledge is re that particular atmospheric index but, when it is positive, we tend to warm at mid latitudes around the 45th parallel of the Hemi, while the polar vortex strengthens. That is concomitant with height falls and cold genesis within the mean PV - so essentially diametrical to our correlations. +AO cold up there, warm down here; -AO vice versa... What I am getting at is that maybe we see a slowing coming into the end here and that bumps 2019 out of contention for top apocalypse indicator, to something more like we be dire-f'ed

There are social-media outlets for all genres... Science Fiction is huge one, with [probably] a vastly larger number of connoisseurs vs those who engage in the sort of shenanigans that go on in here. Being a software by trade to pay the mortgage type the peregrinations of my various job depots have occasionally introduced me to some of them over the years. I guess in some sense of it, it's not a huge leap to see how there would be overlap, fewer degrees of Kevin Baconism must exist between the code monkey nerdasphere, and the coke-bottle-eyed book worm dorkdum. Two realms with a common ancestry. Anyway, under the sterility of florescent illumination one afternoon, I draped arm like a desperate stockyard prisoner over a colleagues cubical wall for a moment of escape. Anything but algorithms. Conversations were inspiring and a nice diversion. Only, "nice" wasn't usually the neighborhood where those courses typically cul-de-sac. I've come to find this is true? Be it Sci Fi, software people, weather junkies ... etc, for some reason group think among these sort of subclass zeitgeists, they always end up in some flavor or another of dystopian hell ( haha). 'Wonder why that is. So one such topic had come up that I had forgotten when we derailed this thread yesterday ( sorry Will I'll make this the last). I was introduced to an idea known as the "kill switch," hypothesis. The gist of it is/was quite similar in principle for all intents and purposes. KS has been around for decades actually ( rarely do successive generations have unique ideas, but don't tell the Millennials that ). In essence all complex tech-based civilizations that evolve unchecked via their own inertia will, undoubtedly, happen into equally impressive ways and means for self-annihilation. It's an intuitive assumption but an easy one to make. We're primitive... We still think of guns that fire projectiles... Troglodytic... The Zircons ...they have Quantum weaponry, teleportation of spalling razor-blades inside the skull of an enemy - no shots ever need be fired by a "caveman" brandishing a Magpul FMG-9. I wonder how a "2nd amendment" on that world reads. Exotic destruction, like us in a lot of ways, are innovations and ingenuity that do not necessarily have any attending morality evolve along with them. Such state of affairs, probably doesn't end well for any society of that ilk. It seems easier to imagine that is the favored result in Nature, too, because it is a logical fit when Nature clearly pits organisms against one another and their own kind, right out of the abiogenesis gate. Those traits are not going to conveniently arrest at the moment the "Forbidden Planet" progenitors turn on the ID machine. So anyway, are but the Universe's progeny, bound ( perhaps ) by the same limitation as any other, were we can never extend our omniscience as far as the former force can see. Any species that attempts to do so, come hell or high water, one way or the other, gets kill switched. We were musing this and I jested, 'perhaps in more scientific terms, 'the cosmological constant of death,' for just as the organism is born, lives, and inexorably dies, so to does the species they are apart. He was creeped out by that, probably because the death of the invidual and the death of the society, are objectively analogical to one-another. Heh, that tends to be closer to axiomatic when that happens in most observations about Nature.. So good luck with that Star Trekkian technical utopia ... traversing the galaxy in the life and times.

There was a warm up signaled though ... consistent across several runs ... It just up and vanquished in one run, 00z ... Example, the 40N and below latitudes over the eastern continent had height orientation/character in diametric variance comparing the 00z and the previous 12z Euro. That's code for ridge ... suddenly becomes trough. Okay... The GFS is useless as a f'n model but ...it's still holding out some vestive in the D7-11 range for ( what would likely be..) the last 588 dm contouring N of BOS ... but even it is more transient looking. I don't know ... there has been about a week to ten day lag on western European heat which ...yeah, may be entirely random artifact and not really indicative of anything, but... that does time for that and would fit past seasonal behavior. Maybe there is something to that and a "tendency wave" propagating around the hemisphere... speculative. But, "torch" vs "warm up" ...some subjectivity slaving there, too.

This doesn't prove anything other than one's lack of any real understanding in the physical processes guiding the greater environmental system... particularly that Time is a variable in it, or any causality-link to pernicious influence in a system... And, also, this stuff above is just horribly blanket applicated and is incorrect.. No one said in the 1980s the Acid Rain was going to result in that. No one said in 1990 that the Ozone Layer meant that... Both those were warnings...both those were dealt with both at home and abroad, in global efforts to curtail their negative impacts and guess what? It worked.. Acid rain reduced by scrubbers at stack release points...and thought obviously still exists...the technology is there to prevent it/mitigate ..because of those sciences of those eras. This is complete garbage. Non-reality-based shit. Period. As far as everything else on this list... 2000 to present ... it's just too stupid to comment on.