Typhoon Tip

Not impossible ? But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities.. I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. . That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc. After that... heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate. It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it - I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

I am .. this blows! It's only made worse reading other's holding out optimism for lost cause - ...oh, no one means it, but it rubs it in.. hahaha J/k... Yeah, I know... either way, time goes so fast for me - anyways - these days that it'll be next July while I'm waitin' on this winter -

It's a seldom wins month, September, for those that engage in this past time solely for the entertainment/dopamine "joy" spike factor. Having to depend almost entirely upon tropics to get those "highs" in this geographic predicament ? ... ancillary hobbies folks.

I would suggest that it is actually the evidences that are the real trigger-points for that modality - not the science alone. I realize you never said or insinuated otherwise in your statement - I'm strictly speaking to the "straw-man" in the room, and my concern that people do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through the corporeal senses... Being told this or that, via science, is not enough. It's mere to them ...They need to be burned, and seeing whales wash-up on beaches with barbie doll components blocking their digestive tracks, fair-weather high tides swallowing island nations, and suffering heat waves a degree she of biblical apocalypses, are just ( unfortunately .. .) what are necessary to get this message successfully into minds. And those evidences ..an entire raft of which are not mentioned here, but are televised, pale in severity the future holds at current profligate pace of Humanity. Life as we know it is going to change ... or has to. Certain convenience delivery has one of two options: change; unable to change. Change may come via technologies... biodegradable plastics... sustainable green energy sources... etc..etc... and these technologies have been around for decades, unexplored or shelved, btw. But it's a race... enters the unable to change and ...well, that ends any discussion of any kind, everywhere - time will tell.

This air mass arrival has morphed into one helluva backdoor front for VA and the Carolinas....

There is nothing about the presently modeled circulation medium over our quadrature of the hemisphere that would physically allow that system to affect this region. Nothing... We can wait until Sunday - that is fine... as in this field, much to our chagrin there can be those rare time when the pattern morphs completely as an emergent, non-predictable circumstance, toward a more interesting x-y-z scenario. Hell for that matter, no probability is truly zero in the perceivable Universe. There is no detectable trend to suggest any such morphology is taking place though. In fact, the opposite. In fact, it was espoused that would happen ( more likely...) JB? ...of course he Trumps an impact scenario as plausible - he's a sell-out Meteorological hooker and despite his borderline buffoonery being repeatedly exposed, people keep posting 'JB says' followed by pieces of verbal shit ...

This Euro run is great .... wow. above normal warmth and completely devoid of any drama for the next 10 billion years - It's just perfect for these dystopian-dopamine junkies, huh

Looks like we've entered the phase of development where the zygote TC spits out meso-vortices... Meanwhile, hi res vis imagery looks animate what appears to be a mid-level curl beginning to more observerably fold cyclonically inward about 60 or so naut miles ENE of the midriff Bahama archipelago - The models will likely play the blind initialization game in the initializations; until they're nailing down something more of an entity in that matrix ...any and all behavior obviously comes along with a caveat emptor. IT does bring up an interesting question for these early stages of development with these things... The tropical physical model of TC's is one heavily coupled to the sea/llvs ... but, it does some times seem as though the mid levels have a role in where the low lvl centers get "picked" hm

There was no "party" to begin with. I remember when I was 14 years old... the weather forecaster would mention a snow storm or tornado along the way of their broadcast, through a din of qualifiers signifying remoteness ... But I didn't often hear much less register those qualifiers in my auditory sensory processors in my shimmering sophistication as an observer back then... The next days always dawned jilted - Going forward... a would-be Humberto (?) is a good candidate for a looper. I realize no model is really doing that, but, I could see this thing being reasonably well-handled over these next three days ...then it starts moving ENE away...only to get abandoned by the trough as it flattens over the top of the west-Atl Basin STR. It then moves ESE then S ... talking some 8 days out... the models having shown poor ability to adjust/correct toward such a behavior for the obvious reasons. Speculation...

Theres very likely to be a tropical cyclone their guys .. that’s the least uncertain part.

Just in time for next week ...heh.. . Yeah I dunno though... I'm not a big fan of that huge warm up and haven't been anyway. we'll see..

Typical behavior of a sensitive system at the nadir - it's responding to everything

So long as one is careful not to conflate "surprise" with "destruction" I mean it would only help to get folks under cover. Otherwise, it wouldn't really matter whether there is element surprise... A category 3 hurricane moving that fast, whether seen coming or not is sides the point; it is doing the same consequential shit where ever it decides to encounter land... Like all water access terminals and real-estate ventures spanning the last 70 years from Brownsville to Portland, most of these regions were expanded profligate with only passive concern if awareness at all to the relative rarity of a 1938 ...or a Galveston 1901 ... or a Labor Day bomb... Andrew... Maria ... etc etc... and well, these things are simply going to happen again. The present infrastructure of the upper MA and S. SNE regions is an order of magnitude more valuable/expanded in terms of economic equivalency ... such that proportion to era would make a 1938 redux the superior loss in these modern times. So yes and no... these other relativity make that no sense of ease or comfort even if one gets to know it's coming ...

Assuming it wobbles N up the coast spanning three languid days as the ridge lobes over top like that - big if ... - that flatter correction of the Lakes trough takes New England out of the running anyway. Might be more of a swipe up Nick's way in this type of solution... but, this one ain't stickin' either.

It's not a typical pattern... There's not very much climate -based precedence for getting a hurricane up this far N comparing the totality of the synoptic evolution of either this 00z, the 12z ...or their blended solution(s).

Just think ... There was once a time when it was absurd to think of the world as round. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of contraptions that could fly. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of going to the moon. Just like it is now absurd to imagine any technological reality where weather prediction has become a thing of the past. Why, ...because of the advances in Quantum sciences leading to atmospheric momentum guide technologies... Yes, in addition to circumventing the Light Speed limit as described by General Relativity ... a nifty ancillary "precipitant" ( haha ) ability is the advent of the "weather modification net." A global systemic control that dictates the rain and sun cycles around an idealized application that ( of coure) falls well short of any reason for worry. Completely banal and uninspired garden watering, followed by utterly dependable utopic mixtures of sun, clouds andtepid air. That's what everyone wants. If such a reality were to envelop the world tomorrow - just supposin' for a second. .. - I wonder. About how long do we think this ilk of social media would continue to depot internet pass-time ? Oh... I give it a two years... By then, then, most that sojourn the past will finally have grown tired of reiterating the same sagas. And the newer generations that never knew of a world that weather-mattered, having socialized their interest elsewhere, will no longer matriculate in and interest will have extinguished ... just like everything that exists in a Universe intrinsically limited by finite time - including ... the Universe its self - eventually does.

Not sure what the other Mets feel about this new "Bahama bomber" potential ... but the more I look over things, this appears to be a greater confidence that a TC will be handled, with limited/no confidence should the former actually happen... That is a highly unusual total handling in the larger synoptic scope/evolution ...noooot typically how we get a TC to run the course up the Eastern Seaboard. In fact, not many climate players are really even identifiable. Typology: ...just off the top of memory... 1 .. there is usually a 300 to 200 mb escape jet running ENE over/out of the NE U.S. region 2 .. some form of negative anomaly is settling into the 90W-80W region nearing mid latitudes over eastern N/A 3 .. some form of blocking ridge ( be it anchored in planetary wave and/or nodal cut-off ...) is lingering between 60W and 70 W over the western Atlantic Basin. ... We really only vaguely at best can identify these structures in whole based upon the operational Euro from D3.5 through D8... What the Euro is attempting to do, is pin the fledgling cyclone near the vicinity of the Bahamas and bide time ... waiting to evolve ridging and associate lower tropospheric surface +PP N of the system. This lobes over the top, ...finally, out there in the inherently less likely to even verify time frame ( anyway ) the western side of that configuration at last happens to set up a steering field to finally bring it up the coast. ... I mean, objectively, you see where I'm going...? I'd put this entirety at low likeliness at best. I suppose it is not impossible.. Fact of that matter, the models don't "really" model things that are "im"possible. Perhaps less likely ...sure.. for whatever reason. Anyway, I'd more inclined to suggest that if said ridging does lobe over top like that ...this thing might end up bumped agonizingly slowly into the interior SE somewhere ...

Actually ... to be fair ... every model has at one time or another, depicted a spin up in that region going back some four days- it's just not been very consistent, nor did they have the benefit of having an actual disturbance there to lend confidence in anything other than a phantom - it just makes it hard to know 'what' is the real origin. That's the problem with a fractal factorization running along with any propagated dynamic system - some emergence is legit... others, not so much. Anyway, I've been looking out over the CV traffic in the models and just like every year between late August onwards ... every guidance has instantiated a different TC at different times, both within their own discontinuities ...and with respect to one another - it's that buck shot time of year in the tropics. Every seabird's wake vortice seems to trundle off into the history books - It's been a good teaser year, though, so far.. Because we have this modeling earnest trough carve-out tendency in the extended at least excuse imaginable going on...and every time that happens... if there happens to be a phantom within grasping range it becomes the pen for the posting author.

This home-grown TC in the Euro from 00z ... now that's one that should be interesting - It's within 5 days in that particular verification wheelhouse and though that model tends to be stingy with initiation/TCs ...it's actually got a disturbance to latch onto - on going.

yeah was just gonna say... first face-smack shock and "shawl" whip back day of this early season... Actually reminds me of one of those first warm up attempts in early to mid May, where we get a taste on one day, than pay our geographical curse tax by being back banged by a N/door or otherwise, cool back for two days sharply, before the ridge gets more positioned to fend off the Maritimes ... And we'll see if the biggie warm up in the latter mid/ext range has legs... personally still have my doubts. Already the Euro tries to gut the ridge by shirking a deg C out of the 850 mb guts ... next to go will be the lengh of the ridge... until it whittles down to 18 hours of humid sw mist... Or not... Just sayn', wouldn't shock me

No more or less crazy than this for the same time period..

kind of funny ...all these qualifiers why a day 9 or day 10 is more intriguing cuz - ..of course it is ... heh.. I've give that position/TC there about 10% chance of being real ( intensity notwithstanding..), over the base-line 4%, more typical of at that time range. which of course means there's 90% chance to be excited over just about anything else. ... But, it's a hind-sight 2020 game of 'see' - cuz if it's there, the conclusion of foresight will of course not include the dump luck shit spray factor of models too often having phantoms there at that time range and therefore once in a while will seemingly get dapple right.

I'm wondering if there's some pan-systemic nature to the planetary system of teleconnectors, air, sea and land, that "gestalt" favors those "MJO wave" looks at this time of year(s). Thing is, I'm not ready to doubt those looks out of hand because we've actually hit some of those. Most of the time we end up with something flatter/tamer, more climate-like in terms of autumn amplitude, but there have been some oddities increasing in frequency, too. For example, there have been more October verified patterns either conducive to snow, or supportive of, than I can remember ever occurring through the previous 25 years before 2000. In fact, 1/3 to 1/2 of those years since, and I'd be willing to throw those white thanks givings in recent years into the mix of the "October" distinction - I mean obviously the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about Julian calendar temporal designations when it's cycling through its anomalies... etc.. Obviously if one is concerned with TCs affecting the eastern seaboard, some sort of negative anomaly ivo the OV while there is a western Atlantic Basin subtropical ridge helps your cause. TC gets guided into the key slot region of the outer Bahamas and then the perennial over-zealous PNAP structure completes the relay and there we go. But, seeing as we seem to spend an inordinate amount of time setting that quintessential pattern in the models, it also seems we have one on the D11 charts at all times. So I guess in short .. I wonder if the models are like setting themselves up for over-production of TCs in the east because of their predilection for these pattern orientations.

Seems like that's been depicted in that D6-10 ranges more often than the D2-5's ...i dunno... maybe this time will be different

Occasionally we'll get a click-by shooting by some nimrod troll that's too stupid to realize they aren't making the impact they think they are, and are in fact only sounding like this guy ... But those aren't really the typical forum user. Most of y'all and the regulars in here really are not the target of these moguls and/or celebrities of the denial-sphere. They're targeting their constituencies, telling them what they wanna here. Morality and ethics have nothing to do with it. They have an easily life if their constituencies are happy - and what makes them happy? This clear and obvious logically flawed vomit they spew from their bully pulpits...