Typhoon Tip

A conceptual question I've oft coveted about the anthropomorphism aspect of AGW, is how "natural" vs "unnatural" is that in reality. You know, whatever we do as a species .... is natural. Quite logically, any process of Nature must then be causal in the changing nature of the natural setting and on and so on. Thus Nature cannot create something unnatural. That may seem obvious reading that in short, terse turns of phrase, but it still is an important distinction that tends to get lost in the dogma of environment lobbies, this, that, and/or the general conscientious voice. Plastic, as anathemic as it's becoming... isn't really unnatural at all. Look if we wanna call Plastic, global warming, death-zones of the seas... etc, etc, secondary, tertiary, or quaternary harmful consequence of something Nature did, that's fine and perhaps we should define them more proper to real math. Any decision we make as an entity-force as entity-forces created by Nature, is a natural force. Sorry - anything else is delusional. Yes yes we all get it, but why does that matter? Well...for starters, there are tendencies to improperly conflate factors that are incorrectly derived/defined when semantics, particularly those of incendiary rhetoric etymology is the primary conveyance; and also, culpability is a miss-assignment of blame. It disenfranchises when considering that Nature put us here in all our glory, an organism so advanced technically. It's a fair question - what really is and is not our fault... Ah, one that may be answered through morality? Because once one's detriment is revealed, to persist along that same course becomes a moral hazard. Before that happens, however ... hint hint hint: no one has ever won a debate insulting people. That's what the shimmering brilliance of the Environmental/scientific community didn't understand in their art of diplomacy decades ago, when they introduced this whole crisis 'all people are asshole' snorting pigs ... They disenfranchised Humanity in a lot of ways by impugning the same "rights" to do what Natural evolution gave them the capacity to do. It set off a sociological ramification that I believe we continue to fight today. But that's speculative. Define a catch-22: Nature endowed its self with an unstoppable ways and means to remove its self. Ho, what a fantastic irony. There's an intriguing premise for a science fiction novel, "The GAIA experiment: the kill-switch chronicles." Holistic muse aside... this may also be related to why deep field cosmological fields of research don't readily see the Universe twinkling with the after glow of all these super advanced species. Too few over pass this test. Leading geologic and paleontological sciences purport plenty of evidence that during the Dinosaur's apex reign circa 250 to 65 Million years ago ... there were extended periods with no icecaps. In fact, there are fossil remains of tropical flora above the 60th parallel, and that's also factoring in tectonic drift, too. Life flourished until the either the Chicxulub, or a cocktail of events including that fateful comet or asteroid teamed up an end the Mesozoic era. It's not a question of whether life can survive an ice free world - the problem is rate of adaptation that's the killer. Pangea broke apart over millions of years and as the climate shifted because of resulting changing circulation patterns, air and sea, along ( probably ) with eccentricities in the Earth's orbit, taking place spanning millions of years. Human kind evolving the ways and means to liberate in just 500 to 1,000 years what took this planet some 3 billion years to sequester, and that is reactive Carbon, that is a Chicxulub event for all intents and purpose. Ahh...but we have this thing called morality - morality is based in no small part on an unconscious, yet ubiquitously accepted knowledge ... no, scratch that. Let's call it an 'ability', within the mentality of responsible sentience ( not everyone...) to project results of addition and subtraction to the vitality of scenario, and weigh the cost of ending consequences. There are probably an innumerable ways to define morality, but one thing most would likely agree upon is that it is the existential result of the individual having matured through necessary stages of success and failure, reward vs punishment, pain and pleasure...etc, as they grow to understanding how their own actions parlay cause and effect as these related to the former, and on and so on. The problem of AGW ...isn't a question of whether it is Natural or artificial ... it's a question of evidence and observable cause and effect - one that awakens the morality. By the time the evidences become that clear, it may be too late to stop the crater.

It's snowed in 10 Octobers since the year 2000 with a +AMO ... It snowed 3 times in the previous 30 years in New England with a -AMO... Next -

mm hm ...don't be surprised either. I don't know if I buy the D6 thru 10 Euro at all. It was supposed to be that way from tomorrow through next Tuesday but this look has been blunted back to more seasonal anomaly as opposed to the rampant heat. I've been elaborating how ridges keep lobing over NW-N of us and causing this weird 500 H "tuck pattern" manifested below as tendencies of high pressure N and llv easterly anomalies into the upper MA and NE regions. It's kept our summer tepid ( though above normal...) and out of the headline heat for one, but it is repeating signal and I have seen those Euro heat ridge looks on too many occasions to count in that sort of time range ...and invariably the consecutive runs start lobing over the heights again .. We'll see - but that aspect you note above, ... it may not be exactly the same idea but it's a cousin to it... Hopefully it parlays into the winter... but with differences needed. I was musing to my self yesterday that this would be a horror pattern in January... We'd have bone-cold N drift molasses and no storms interminably and I have seen that sort of look set up in winter before.

The "lensing" that goes on is fascinating - really ... couple of days of 60s with a shot across the bow feel, and there's a tenor shift right on queue and it's palpable. Next Wednesday after 3+ days of nearly +18 jammed into the dailies and a sensibly polarizing feel, it'll be interesting to watch as the atmosphere reverses in here, too. Is tonight a frost chance? I wonder if places like Orange Mass. Maybe the interior bogs of SE zones... typicals in general. Remember, we can car-top at 37 .. 38 if the wind is dead calm. Although it may not on the ground in that sort of marginality. I could see the DP rising to meet the temp somewhere in the low 40s, then...dew out to 38 with 'soft' sponge frost on some car windows. I've been very proficiently radiating here in the Nashoba valley the last few mornings. In fact, I've seen 10 F jumps from down here in this valley as near by as 190 S junction at Rt 2 ... It was 44 the other morning here at my drive way, and 59 on the 290 E bound hill coming out of Worcester ... I'm think my driveway at dawn is a candidate for the first ... but, it could also be 41 stall - lots of green left out there.

It's interesting how some years ... maybe 1954 and the like, it's so easy to cinema an event on the EC ... it probably even seemed that way during those seasons. Like, 'normal' or something. But this year? Sprayin' 'em out of the tropics yet you can feel safe and secure in the notion, even complacent, that God would actually fail if he wanted to make that movie -

I've noticed a defined tendency on either side of the anomaly dial for that... The latter mid/extended range pattern biases normalize - that's not unheard of as modeling shenanigans go. But this lost heat, or scaled back cooling, as they have been coming into nearer terms, has been particularly coherent all summer, actually. I distinction I can only wonder if will continue observable as we head into fall.

may be the last time the -PDO/-AO/-EPO arc has much say at our latitude ...these next 10 years...

GFS actually has a kind of "Imperfect Storm" deal going on S of NS out there over 48 hours... Takes Humberto and injects/capture and then clearly baroclinically implodes heights at the same time it has Hummer's residual core trundling around inside of it like a golf ball in a dryer cycle.

Yeeeup .. Looks like we got the next two CV misses lined up on the old assembly line ready to twist on up and model faux mpacts on the EC for another five days worth of lives stolen from local poster hopefuls...

...pretty soon, NHC will get this recommendation and then finally the rest of the world will know -

Here we are all the way out at D15 in the GFS and finally ... clear indications of seasonal change in the model

Interesting... seems via the tenor in here - we've gone from speculation of a week or two earlier nadir to a late one?

Warm hemisphere on our side ... with an idiosyncratic cold node over us - enabling as usual... It's not autumn in my mind until that shit stops and one of these GFS la-la range patterns actually succeeds for the better... SO just imho - I'm sure other's basking in 37 F radiational "luck" are just fine believing the seasons have changed profoundly and incontrovertibly and that is fine too - Agreed on the freeze necessity, though. I'm good with the gardeners having to pack it in this late. We've been in gravy mode for a couple of weeks as it is, with straggler tomatoes or whatever bonus.. Was ambling down the aisles of my in-laws big garden in 75 F Pandora utopia weather the other day, and rows of tomatoes albeit midriff blighted, the crowns were still yellow flowers amid some late ripeners... and I have to admit, seems tomatoes turning red in mid September are sweeter than those that do so in mid July. They've been jarring and had a good year. Peppers did extremely well, too. Plus some more exotics. Good year all around and no losses in moving on... I'm not a epidemiologist by any stretch, but it seems to me ... kill the mosquitoes, kill the spread of this EEE. It's a nasty one, with 1/3 mortality rate and even higher rates of permanent neurological damage. If you get that, it's dicey whether you end up a tongue-biter or not. And as far as I've read/heard/seen it's entirely spread intravenously ...by mosquito syringe. As a digression into 'holism' ... I have a Gaia hypothesis that mosquitoes were invented by evolution as a population control mechanism. It seems to fit all dimensions of biota-management ( if you will..). Think about it. Humans over populate by profligate means of environmental exploitation --> warm sultry world that is conducive to ( mosquitoes + migratory pathogenic invasion)/2 = a shit storm of die off potential. Or, even in well-behaved static population numbers ... just the baser Malaria and EEE, and who knows what else ... keep numbers down. Problem with humidity is that ... ha! Humidity - how's that for a Freudian slip... problem with Humanity is that we've out-foxed these natural "checks-and-balances" and are no longer proxy-over by forces of ecology and other limiting factors. But our ingenuity comes with a price, as there is no way in the Universe to give to one system, without taking from another. And well... here we are facing declines in more ways, both directly and indirectly, from the others, those in which we are still inextricably reliant upon - catch-22 in a way. Synergistic breakdowns are looming, too. Anyway... slow morning here at the office. Sorry for the soap- box but ...whats new from me

I bet if the wind were to be offshore, given that thermal plumb? it would expose that 'autumnal vibe' as bootlegged. it's mild at 900 mb 13C? mm, this is just an idiosyncrasy of this oddball fold-over look at H500 we've had pretty much all year, and it's favoring high pressures from the N to slope the lower sounding intervals unuually far left/upright. I mean I'd like to see an actual +PNAP pan American look before crediting autumn arrival - I'm almost wondering if the AMO is partly to blame for why troughs won't exit in a timely fashion. Look at the Euro at 24 hours... trough in the Maritimes, but 48 hours the axis of that trough has progressed half way to England yet the heights won't rise over NE ... The following annotations are a gross repro for that, which has also been a repeating pattern of behavior for months frankly.. ( blue line is a "virtual" trajectory/emergent property of anticyclonic rotation of major features ) This recurring theme over several months morphs/slopes the trough backward W, while higher heights end up lobing NW, so we get this undercut look - like there is some sort of emergent property for anti-cyclonic curl going on at very large scales. This behavior has been happening and verifying all summer. It's kepts our above normals out of head-lines - which ...admittedly, no one would complain ha. Buut, just the same, it's hiding the NE U.S. and Maritimes from being "as warm" as they could.

Not sure how to parse out sarcasm from sincerity over the past bit of posting so no offense intended, but holy shit was that a warm Euro run.

No wonder Trump rose to power - holy f

This is one of those years where the CV season goose poops 10 pellets down stream at the Americas and none do shit on the EC... Yet, we'll get a hurricane at all next year, and it'll go from Cape Hatteras to ACK and we'll get PRE'ed, and weather the wind of all these assholier-than-thou posters telling us that isn't a bad average so we're the jerks for want -

Perhaps ... but "futility" has a curve too - It's not like it's impossible...just a matter of when said possibility begins to improve enough to stick one's toes in the chance - heh...I've seen enough fun Novembers to know that Hallow's Eve needs to get behind to be ankle deep in the curve depth... Waste deep is December 1, but if you're not holding your breath submerged in chances by early February - meh F grade. No winter then 1888 redux, F+!D Not sure how GW mutilates all that tongue-in-cheek... It's existentially anecdotal, which took place and was formulated before the recent hockey-stick years kicked in.

Sure ... here - geez

I love it boring right now... And, I also disagree with 80s in September. In fact, I want 80s through Halloween night, and then ... -10 C at 850 the morning of November 1, followed by the high likeliness of ever seeing 8+" of snow every three days until mid February. The reason for that tOtally realistic desire is because of the pure insanity in real futility of wanting snow before November 1. Firstly, it won't stick around ...out side of some 1/10,000 year return rate season, which probably requires some sorta Krakaleftnut volcano or something... Otherwise, secondly ... for some reason, when it snows in October ...that hasn't parlayed well into ensuing seasons for me. It may psychobablogical in the sense that 2" on October 10 makes an average snow winter unacceptably mundane - yes...I'm willing to admit to conditioning. Here comes all the statistical proof that it doesn't mean blah blah blah if snows in October... f you. I'm talking anecdotal existentialism here. So, may as well get long bike rides and outdoor fun/late golf and outdoor hoops and women clad in me-too, until there's a chance at better staying power.

For all my protestations and hand-waving, I love my winter weather phenomenon types. I can tell you, no one else who shares in that perspective did very well during those years Will mentioned..

Yeah. All that, so long as it's a front loaded winter. In fact, and I realize I only win the hearts of detractors by saying the following, I hope it's 80 to 100 F from February 10th onward through next summer, but, only after having suffered a winter so extreme and severe between Halloween and that date, that even Kevin folds it in and has to abandon the social-media engagement of the weather forumverse for shear sanity. 'Course, that would require a sense of 'lost sanity' in that particular individual to begin with, which as an apparent lost cause .. that's another story. OH we have our dreams...

Sounds like "entitlement" ... or a form of it. When/if x-y-z happens once or twice, folks marvel. If it happens all the time, they become accustomed and part of that customization is of course the "expectation" - and hell halth no fury like ones expectations unfulfilled. It kind of reminds me of that Larson that depicts the two tattered ragged distressed wonderers that happen upon a single palm tree hangin' over a brackish oasis while the blazin' sun's beaming mercilessly overhead ... obvious a buck-ten degrees, and the one turns head toward the other and says, " What ... no cups?" haha. People are like that. Whether it's about the neurotic abstraction of this attraction/dopamine for experiencing whatever weather, to economics, regardless of subject/aspect at hand, when folks get accustomed, it's a built in demand. It's a digression but I suspect it's an actual evolutionary advantage. I mean if we think about it, when a community gets used to certain inputs into the system, and thus have adapted, that familiarization lessens uncertainty at a survival level; and since self-preservation is a baser instinct that all possess, I bet that self-righteous sort of 'annoyance' is really kind of rooted in that phenomenon. No one is going to stop and ask what is and is not unfair about getting glut all the time and having to suffer watching someone get a slice of pie once in a while. Haha. it's actually kind of humorous, that someone could be like pissed off that they don't get to lord it over others when they can't -

No argument ... Firstly, as a primer, the arctic is very sensitive when nearing melt states; input therms mean much more to threshold periods than they do during deeply descended seasonality. This year the arctic domain space has been near, or at that threshold ( as has that also been a predicament becoming more common over the last decade, plausibly longer), where in lock step the Arctic Oscillation teleconnector become a reasonably well correlated/indicator for melt rates. -AO is a warm signal above the 60th parallel; where the N. Hemisphere has yet to begin its seasonal cascade, that becomes problematic ( newly so..) at onset of this new/re-asserting -AO mode.

No... there's nothing about that solution yesterday that looped - do you know what a looped trajectory looks like? ...It looks like this: I'm not trying to be a wise-ass, but the cyclone literally has to perform a trajectory that does some variation of that - Looking at that particular model run, 18z NOGAPs or NAVGEM or whatever's its designation... I don't see that happening so not sure if you understand what we mean by loop