Typhoon Tip

It might be that the Euro is just phasing the remnant ejected western trough more proficiently with that piece of late ejected more polar stream mechanics coming SE through the Plains there at 72 hours. The GFS dives the wind max into that region there, and then the two cancel out, and the trough remains neutral/positive slope and thus....weaker for whatever it goes on to create. The Euro just seems to phase that more proper like, opting for more constructive wave interference/interaction ... interesting.

One thing I've been noticing about the difference between the Euro and the GFS is ... The GFS has internal destructive wave interference over the TV...centered roughly on 84 hours off the 06z ( to exemplify the point), but has been carrying on with that contention for many runs. The Euro seems to be smoothing and/or not just disagreeing that will be the case. The differences parlay ... The Euro then goes on to having more of a 'slug' of DPVA and total mechanics for quicker cyclogen and is thus cooling the column quicker. Contrasting, and despite the GFS' seeing this as a bomb a week and a half ago ( haha ), the GFS' negates that look and it's resultant low weaker and faster.

Oh yeah! right - that's the one, but I was actually thinking back to before even that... Of course, the GFS goes out to the edge of time and space, so - The 5th has been signaled for trough intrusion through the ambient SE ridge ( at least attempted) the whole way though.. That's probably the "what the models are really for" practical intent, and thus...take away - but obviously, these tools are used for people's psychotropic entertainment addiction in here, so are not judged accordingly... I mean, if one wants to be objective about it, and not just being snarky ( like I just did ) out of hand, there's intrinsic value in the low being there, not the details of it. But that's just me I guess... Come circa Sunday night..I'm beginning to wonder if we will at that time be two events through otherwise gloomy two week relaxation of misery. Ha ha. Maybe we'll be saying something like, " Outside of this mid week, looks like a tough stretch coming up..." Then, next Friday arrives three successfully entertaining events logged, and we'll be saying ... " Outside of this early next week, looks like a tough stretch coming up" ..etc In fact, I'm growing increasingly confident that we are seeing an emergent property in the 50 to 60th latitudes over N/A that is actually a cold feed-back at larger synoptic scales, from this expanded HC business. What the latter may be doing is helping to enhancing the tendencies for confluence as that aggressively abuts the N/Stream, and so we end up with the polar highs and big thermal slope events with warm air at mid levels. It seems there is an abnormally large plethora of those being shredded out by the GFS in the guidance's behavior... more so as we've gotten into the middle(er) part of winter here. Seems it has a D11 ice storm on every other run. But more importantly, these highs in southern Canada are not being handled well at longer ranges ( D6 or7 + ), and thus, the models "tend" to only see SE ridging at those times. The other aspect when comparing the EPS to the GEFs, .. I'm seeing both means playing into their own bias some...The Euro's cluster is a bit too deep in the SW ...and that small amount of feed-back then gets ballooned when it dumps L-h into the ridging and it's being exaggerated. The GFS stretches things too much, ...if not, moves too fast in its progressivity tendency.

HYE ya'll.. How 'bout this guy, GFS' member P006 ( 00Z) ...with a torqued CCB around the west side drillin' b-ward conditions through central zones, up through eastern VT/NH and ME There were other members that were almost this impressive too... I'd count, maybe 5.25 members if I were trying to be objective but there's a gradation with the weaker ones, and none have no low pressure concern at all. So, overall, I'd say that's > 50% confidence for something by a goodly margin. The amplitude is intriguing... Does anyone have that URL handy, where you can enter a date and it has the model run ? Or am I imagining such an availability is out there - I'm curious because I can swear, I recall the GFS having a solution like this above or thereabouts...some 10 days ago. Then, it smeared it into a Lakes Cutter, at other times, just a big bag of amorphous/weak LP with QPF non-committal ever since. Seeing these runs not "maybe" formulating a consensus on this thing, maybe isn't without precedence -

I don't like the positive slope of that trough though... It's stealing the DPVA. That's why you want the slope of the trough to 'fish hook' the southern end, so that the DPVA is normal to the isohypses and your UVM blows a hole in the top of the tropopause... blah blah... but, we can still get decent cyclogen too - just saying... it's leavin' some on the field.

Not sure if it's entirely a practical use of time debating that particular model's depiction from 120 hours or so out, but I'd have to say that is an incremental improvement over the 12z run as far as profiling for winter enthusiasts. That's code for ... more snow.

That ICONic p.o.s. model has 4-6" off an NJ model secondary this weekend for what it's indubitably worth -

Right...we haven't attempted to move a storm through a west -based -NAO compression, either. You made it sound like a silver bullet fix was Atlantic... heh...it's a bit more complex than that.

I'm talking about Meteorology here... The heights are anchored in the GW anomaly that's ...just ... it

If you want my opinion ...which I know you gaze out at the auburn sunsets forlorning to hear ... Nope - The SE ridge isn't a SE ridge as is; it is the entire planetary tropical girdle of heights... In other words, that's just a nodule of a beast that frankly, I keep discussing but everyone's either ignoring, or don't understand, or don't take seriously... but, it's well-papered that the Hadley Cell is expanding. Now, this does not directly impugn your assessment when you say "SE ridge" ... buuut, the problem is, the heights are not going anywhere if there is Atlantic blocking/-NAO west based or not... In fact, what results in that circumstance is hellacious Neptunian wind velocities yanking Denver's air mass and fire hosing it at France... Can't get storms in that kind of compressed flow.

oh god. I saw that emblem down in the lower left there and though, "wow - this late in the season"

That's a nother thing... I wonder if we're ever gonna get one of these big rosby rollout warm ups on D10 to actually verify - It's like the opposite of previous years with this model. Usually, there's a D9 bomb on every run that gets so common false people stop even commenting on it. This is like a phantom early spring opposite of that -

I was with you on that... The the error balloons from about D4.5 on that run, re that particular wave. It looks like the model overly conserves it's mechanics and digs it too prodigiously in toward W. TX or thereabouts... and then of course it has to then consider what to do with all that power once it is ejected... ending up in a upstate bomb. I suggest that D4-5 comes out flatter and that thing ends up a NJ model type low ...but I also caution, that's all predicated on the assumption it's right at D4, first.

Re the Euro... I'd like to point out a subtlety. Four cycles ago (12z yesterday), this was a stem-wound bomb up in western/central Ontario re the 5th-ish. 00z last night had that more Buffalo's longitude, with suggestion of a secondary ...at least attempt if not reflection. This 12z run seems destined to continue along that trend of correcting E... I just want to note, that the Euro tends to have a slight west/amplitude trough bias at D7+, so...this syncopated correction isn't without precedence.

Yeah...considering these next ten days to two weeks, looks like three potentials for inclemency: Jan 5-6, 8-9, 11-13 How those perform ( obviously) have more coherency the nearer in time, but It's not hard ( for me ) to see why we are "Lake cutter" saturated with storm tracks, in the mean modeling behavior this cold season. I put that in quotes because my take on things are at odds, philosophically, with the recognition of how/why lows cut early and turn polarward through the Great Lakes longitude(s) as guidance has biased. We are looking at a coincident result, more so than a pattern that typically drives those. The Hadley Cell bloated stuff is simply messing everything up. The storm track is being pushed N in the mean - this is papered... - and North America seems to be suffering the same. That's different from a pure -PNA/-PNAP flow construct. Having said that, there are ways to overcome that forcing ... There just needs to be relative anomalies embedded with the necessary power to do so. Which can and will at some point happen. As well, just because the HC is inflated anomalously "heighty", doesn't mean it will always be that way... So things can time that way, too. It's not a good era for modeling ...particularly latter mid and extended ranges, because the velocity saturation and 'stretching' of wave mechanics makes determinism at an excessive premium to put it nicely.

I couldn't agree with this more... yeah. Thing is, it's a sociological problem - if we want to put a sciency sounding label to it. I have a PHD friend in the academia of the Boston circuit of Universities ( MIT-BU-Harvard and gang if it helps to drop names...) and she's utterly agreed with me on that, that the GW "debate" isn't a debate - it's an advantageous era where people have become complacent with the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution -based tech culture. If someone literally feels physical and emotion pain and anguish as a direct consequence and penalty of GW, they'll admit it. It's that simple...thus, it's a sociological problem when integrating that baser evolutionary aspect into the whole. Humans... all animals for that matter, don't respond as well to stimulus they cannot directly sense through one of the corporeal senses: Sight, Sound, Touch, Taste or Smell... and usually, more than one is more convincing. GW? Doesn't have that advocate... It's specter is invisible...particularly when the person hearing or reading about it, is submerged in examples that are always somewhere else in the world, while always when they are sitting in a comfortable office or personal living space. Even the poorer classed hoi - polloi that don't have quite all the accessibility to the same advantages as higher echelon, live luxuriantly cozy existences compared to the 47-year old life expectancy of their paleo-forefathren ... People deny GW/CC ...whatever we want to call it, because they can...and, they will do what they can, if it takes not having to face that they can't live the way they've grown accustomed to living. That's the problem facing the World. ...and why that 'catch-22' will probably require a massive population correction and tech set back, before some form of non -profligate, responsible/conservative approach to building the scaffold of future society heralds the real next phase in human evolution. Which,...this is that turning of the page - it never goes smoothly... That's being optimistic, too... We don't even know what the finality of these detrimental evidences are, as they are still in the process of f'n the environmental as it is. We keep fielding papers that x, y or z is worse than projected it would be. ...list goes on... The catch-22? It's because the very evolutionary advantage that the vicissitudes of gratuitous chance endowed humanity with, the genius of ingenuity, appears destined to have created it's own demise. Cheers

I understand what you are saying /mean ... I think.. But for the general reader: one has to be careful with the above line of reasoning. It's used/abused, to negate the impacts of climate change to liberally...almost as a rationalization and denial of truth, because most in the business of doing so have too much to gain or maintain, in not admitting that it is a problem - more over, that it is a problem that all science included, most definitely appears to be human attributed. That said, there is another danger in the above line of reasoning; it also negates the necessity to use climate trend analysis in the setting of expectations. If the climate is demonstrating a logorithmic change ( accelerating one...) in either a negative or positive direction, wrt to any metric, it is wise to consider that ensuing period of time in question might exhibit that same tendency in that metric. Otherwise, there is no problem - the way I see it ... - it assuming events and systems in a case by case basis, independent of that expectation. People have trouble separating those two... but, it's really more like ... if a case ends up warm, and the climate curve is accelerating warmer, ...the probability was > 50% for that in the first place. The real problem here is that climate masks causality. People use that against the climate signal, which is false. Not you per se... but these are aspects pertinent to the present World, and one's that irk me.

This social -media arena has a concentration of those plugging their joy circuitry/dependency into the drama they see on charts. Blah blah ... been opining this for a long time, but at times it is still down right patently like the 60-minutes expose on psychotropic addiction behavior. Hm, I guess it's better than opiodes, but ... it doesn't lend at all to objective thinking/perception on matters. I'm with Brian ... you guys 86 a month based on what? Okay. To each his, her, or whatever variation of gender-reassignment's own I guess...be miserable if that's your bag man You might not have to wait as long as you think... Just look at member P8 at 228 hours from 00z last night. This would shut down the PHL-BOS corridor completely...

Yeah, Will and I were musing about the cold thrust possibilities... We figured - climo and experience - that the models wouldn't really see that discrete of a detailed behavior because it is still outside their resolution wheel-house. Something about the planetary/atmospheric interface ... the geo-physics are missing? It needs furthering science and evolution, because it's an area of modeling that as far as I can tell, is invisible to them. So, they set up but don't do the push, or that tornado ... you know? ... But it's up to human interpretation and experience to then modulate/fill in for those disadvantages. The art is not going overboard with buns and ketchup, heh And to your point, .. MOS is a climate sloped product as we know, so it performing better intuitively fits there.

Really an impressive melange event. Our glaze is the 'gray' type, because it's 90/10 water and pixie crystals mixed, which just means there a bit of air trapped in the ice.

Yup

Lol, message received loud and clear... That was the one thing we danced around before this thing, and that is that the models would f that up one way or the other.

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer. Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening. We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting. We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep re thunder in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event. Nonetheless, flash-boom-ba, with very large sleet pellets - probably stuck together... We then settled back into moderate sleet and ZR, in a fog of pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over here was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable. It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

Funny ... I didn't see one forecast agency, public or private, from government to television or social media alike, anywhere, put thunder in the forecast ... This meant business. Three brilliant flashes, loud thunder and moderate sleet with big noodles... Stands to reason on the nose of this powerful mid level jet currently fisting over... If it wasn't for our unique topographical suck factor drawing that cold down from the N... this was really about a warm pattern event, and may as well have been late summer. We score for having our predicament sometimes, huh -

Hmm... Looking around at Wunderground as an unofficial layout of temperature behavior... I'm not seeing that the cold push occurred quite as prodigiously as I thought it might, given that leading panache offered by the various models/blends for this thing. I thought I'd be upper 20s at the surface here in N Middlesex by now, with an even colder intervening region being fed by barrier jet ...offering a faux growth region below the deeper elevated UVM/warmer layer way up there... Net result, would be light to moderate sleet with some tiny aggregates mixed in. We are getting the sleet with weak growth snow, but it's wet snow...and though the surface did briefly drop to 31.5 about an hour and a half ago, it has since risen to 33 everywhere around... I can't say I'm disappointed if this ends this way. I'm not really a fan of icing... If we can ice to .33" accretion and stop, that provides the brilliant prismatic splendor while keeping the lights on the internet connected and the home heated... I'm fine with that