Typhoon Tip

Yeah ... I was just helpin' the operational interpretation - word My opinion hasn't deviate from this morning actually ... the ensemble mean of the EPS is buffer there. Also, some individual GEF members approached extreme scenarios, while the mean only vaguely deviated - if another couple members add to that, we'll see that shift begin there too.

Because the first order of intelligentsia to Meteorologists and informed hobbyists that want to be taken seriously ... is to look at ever situation uniquely. Trend is important, but it doesn't dictate the script -

If anyone has any question ...the reason the GFS isn't annihilating the upper MA up through eastern NE is purely a function of bi-passed phasing ...more probably owing to it's progressive bias. But, does have some merit based upon two prognostic philosophies: 1 ... speed contamination is verifying all season and appears to also at minimum be vestigial in this and prior runs. Trend is a checklist item 2 ... the other guidance' are also showing slip partiality with the capture slow down scenario. The 00z Euro was the most proficient run to date, but the 12z ( pun intended ) slipped toward less by a small measure, but enough to limit the event to some sort of dubious looking Norlun with the unusual circumstance of having a closed low embedded inside - that's not likely and probably means the solution's in flux.. This run 18z run is ...well, the 18z run of the GFS for one so axe-head that, but it simply outpaces the northern stream and slips the southern stream and it's associated surface wave partially passed, such that by the time the subsume really takes place the flow is stretched and the capture is way east. Meanwhile, the ridge axis being over the Dakotas during those shenanigans is a red flag that the whole baggage is indeed too stretched and likely to pan west . I'm also noticing there is a tendency across the board to pull the surface pressure contours west in ensemble means some, that usually means there some contention on the western side of the envelope pull the track cluster/mean.

Mm 144 hour Euro's 500 mb is flawless, tho - It just pivots around SNE's lat/lon like that... yeah, whatever - I'm not deviating at all based that look. jesus - still cautiously optimistic

Tru ... Hey I’m still cautiously optimistic – and the way this winter has gone? I think I’ll be fully on board when I’m standing knee-deep in snow two days later

OH, this GFS run is clearly heading toward amplitude and considerations west ...absolutely. Remember, we are in trend modes - these are not etched in stone solutions. You have to reel that cinema in mind's eye and realize where you've been, where we are now, for projecting the future. Adding in the model's native bias, clearly it's speed/progressive stretching tendency is pulling the s/stream and ripping it out faster than the subsuming n/stream can capture - and that could easily be a correction that is in process of unfolding.

12z ICON has gone from 06z implication of doom... to partly sunny with high in the low 40s and early birds darting blithely to and fro - Red flag?

Yeah yeah re the ICON AND that ... but, jus the same, ...to anyone with a modicum of Met insight, the 06z was a juggernaut correction and though that particular cycle only goes to 120 hour ( at TT), that was heading in one direction. ....DOOM

Seein' as I was asked ... I just like dramatic natural events. Period. In fact, I think there is value in seeing the total picture of a driving white-out go to 80 F a week later... that, in its step-back specter ...is incredible as a total event. In fact, cutting that up.. .it would be anomalous at all scales: the storm, the heat, and the storm --> heat. Amazing! Lost on folks ... wow. I think folks tend to want to categorize and preserve relative to those, some sort of emotional attachment to regimes...and thus loathe having to adjust ? Which if true - hint, I think more so than not.. .eh hm.. - this is a weird occupation for exposing that nerve! Because there is 100% chance of never seeing 0 change.

Not to stick my face in the middle of your fledgling squabble ... heh, but, if I may make a suggestion: The QPF layout of the Euro is less paramount compared to it's other kinematics and total evolution of synoptic metrics there... It's way more likely being way too cute and compact east with that, almost treating like a tropical eye-wall - for lack of better description, and usually those CCB juggernauts are physically instructed to a vaster envelope... Just a suggestion though... I mean, these models obviously don't project physically "IM"possible solutions - usually ... it's just up to use to correct for better or worse based on likeliness, which is of course guided by knowledge vs wisdom. So, there's naturally going to be probability/risk in assessment ..haha. But simply put, I just think the Euro QPF layout is a little dubious, big IF it's right otherwise. We'll see.

Very remote chance of repeating +12 monthly departures - that was on par with a freak event - Ha, I wanna do that in July ahhaha

Inclined to agree ... (corrected below) Not that you or anyone else hasn't considered the following comment: It's an easy fix at this time range... no worries on that specific point-aspect. Let's get the 500 mb evolution squared away and we can work with those idiosyncrasies. (corrected below) Furthering thoughts/observation in general: It's D5 entry and early D5 exit, and a massive slow mover. When we start expanding spatially, and then include duration... we end up wrought with all kind of concerns - for obvious reasons. The usual 'over in 13 hours with the heaviest snow falling in 4 hours' type event is conceptually insufficient. You get into storm-specific eccentricities that cannot really be assessed in the deterministic effort. In other words ... snow totals? Good luck. A Euro solution probably froths milk shake air to about CEF, MA arcing to CON NH, with by virtue of intense CCB wind field being so systemically large, and any snow at all is thrashed into a bona fide blizzard/vis profile along the coast. But, we all caution, this solution is the fourth consecutive that's corrected NW and deeper ... and with the EPS showing a reasonably discerned trend toward more organization in the 00z cycle .. ( to mention, the D5-7 duh) no one is convinced this multi-cycle hint is finished constructing its self in the guidance. Also .. this is a subsume phasing and those typically end up nasty for someone. That subsume has been remarkably consistent as a point-aspect, too. Marine and surf being agitated by multi- tide cycles would be significant problem in the Euro solution ...even being 100 mi east of ideal in this particular cycle's synoptic evolution I suspect that would be a concern. Are there any Equinoctial issues? *BUT* if we get a Euro-esque system to move that slow and that deep, with that kind of deep layer total tropospheric response, it will deform/lift the sea-surface into a tizzy either way - normal tides might crush vulnerably shore points with toppling seismographic abyssal walls, regardless. Particularly if that same sort of solution corrects a mere 100 clicks to the west, look out. That would be bad ... The GGEM probably has moderate typical coastal concern. But, if the Euro solution backs so much as a 100 miles west, or slows down sooner, with that that bombogenesis scale and degree? (I'm seeing some 20+ DM total height evacuation across 12 hours .. and you enter that obscene virtual scale where descriptions fade to black...) You simply cannot do that without hell to pay - I'm not being histrionic here; that's just theoretical. It's probably the operation going too bananas, but... just in case it's heading toward reality .. yeah. The capture and stall so typical with these summit events in this solution is in the GOM ... a little N of climo for Hull Mass, but the previous 12 hour crawl by at 960's mb from S to N like that ...I don't even know if there's a good analog for comparison there. I'd say I'm improving my personal odds on this thing to 'cautiously optimistic' for a moderate impact event, that if graduates to actual optimistic, also carries with it a 'corrective vector' pointed toward major. Something like that... We are at the tail end of mid range, ...extending an event from entry point there, to the extended at early D7... It's a unique deterministic scenario... it's cross time scalar because of it plausible majesty in the total circulation of the hemisphere - and I also mind us of the philosophy that large looming scenarios tend to do this sort of thing, and show up with dictation in the runs...like big boulders rolling down the steam and the current of pedestrian events stem their ways around the proxy of the boulder as a metaphor. EDIT: .. having seen the surface evolution of the 00z Euro operation version on Pivotal with better resolution .. we made not need much west track adjustment after all - but the QPF seems oddly underdone given the mid level morphologies across that key 12 hours of that solution - I think that would be magenta in concentric f-gen bands amid a total S/+S CCB head.

Nick may have brought up the best point ...the whole manifold of the pattern is trying to move that whole +PNAP structure bodily into the Atlantic -

Heh... if that storm happens next week and saves a little face on the winter, the impetus there is "little" ... Mr Bouchard still fairly wins the necessity for this winter to go f- it's self.

Yeah ...but just my experience with the UKMET in that range ...it's like it piles up the flow near the end, and maybe correction east like said isn't a bad option - agreed. This is like a 59 yard field goal attempt to stop a 40-0 shut out the way this winter's been going -

If that run went out to D7 I bet it tries to lift that 995'er up the Hudson tho -

GFS is outpacing the southern stream with a helluva lot of total progressive manifold velocity - I mean it's moving/reshuffling the L/W straight on through over the top of the southern stream wave, and just leaves it behind. It's a cold front... The Euro/prior GGEM wanted to slow the N/stream down... It's hard to know if they are just playing into their own biases. Same holds true for the GFS. These models tend to meridian bias vs progressive tendencies, respectively, and it seems they are running with their own tendencies to do so. The GGEM's 12z run certainly bucks it's bias... Then there's the seasonal tenor of missing opportunities and least excuse imaginable ...and often, creatively seemingly to rub it in, too ( haha ). But, there are some vestiges about the flow overall that suggest its a bit more relaxed than a month back...and this is sort of transitioning into that regime this week. It may be growing pains/transition in the runs... The AO is trying to neutralize, albeit transiently this week ...and if that is so over our hemisphere, that actually helps because it eases off the isohypses counts between JB and the Gulf, and may allow a Euro like fantasy more truth. If the Euro comes in ...ah hell - it'll be interesting to see that run.

Ah ...no - these are just observations I'm making. Personally? Beneath 'cautiously optimistic' - as in not as much as that. The seasonal music doesn't groove like this is going to happen, and there's some objective merit to recognizing that trend without it being just histrionic/angry subjective hand waving - There are reasons this season sucked... as I've opined ad nauseam since ... oh, 2005 actually ...how the hemispheric winters are speeding up velocities because HC expansion/ing into the boreal heights and the flow has to physically speed up...and it's an interference pattern - for good or worse is a case by case scenario. This year's been heavily biased in negative interference...

NO shit ..wow, that look right there is a K.U. actually ... prerequisite set up - Also, folks... I did a total wave space comparison and ending on D5/6 that GGEM solution off 00z is ( per my own estimation ) aoa the 80th percentile a March 31 1997 analog. The Euro's phasing is more believable through D6 but it somehow manages to bi-pass the two streams when the day prior, they were already apparently/seemingly integrating along the MA.. Not sure that's physically plausible but it's like "dis - integration" ( literally) after the fact going from D6 to 7 ...and ends up with a middling low up near NF and the mid level N/stream mechanics with blue balls off the lower MA like ...what happened - where did she go. It was already there and the depiction looks united on the coarser renditions, but somehow the S/stream mechanics slips the N/stream despite the grid spacing - interesting...

Yes...bingo! Ephemeral indeed ... I'm not sure what the EPS tele 's look like, but the American don't really support anything other than a big warm up erupting in the first 10 days of March. ( not that anyone asked, but we flip the clocks in 9 days ... I'd be tickled pink if I piled out of work that Monday, with a 75 on the car dash, windows down, and the sun still 3 hours up on the horizon ) Anyway, the term 'hale Mary' leaps to mind, like a last gasp attempt to save a little exit face - ... I dunno, but March is a long month... and we really have to get to Easter to really close the books around here. Some years, ...heh, like this one, the book is slammed shut out of rage way before then but, objectively... we could put up a week at 70 F and still white out on the 22nd of March... before melting it all off the next week. This March is about bi-polar swings of tormented loss and real hope. haha

Mm...ridge in the west, unlike pretty much ever since early December, is actually depicted in a good longitude ( axis ) centered on D6 ...check. What I don't like is the impulse in the south that offers the seed/enticer for the stream interaction/phase ... it appears too concerved given the heights along the Gulf/continental interface latitudes leading (D's 4/5)... It seems that would be absorbed a bit more.

It was 10 F here a couple weeks ago one morning... I dunno - seems like an impressive cold shot to me. In fact, there's no lack of cold air ...it's just not being delivered and/or sustained around or geography. Just look at the polarity in the Euro at D10... While not a testament as to it's probability of occurrence by any stretch, there is still a vast pooling of sub -20 C 850 mb layout over the Canadian archipelago of the N. Nah issues has been the super-structure of the hemispheric flow won't align into a delivery/sustaining scenario - and hasn't really not once all year since mid December, for whatever reason. Not all all times..I mean, he have been side-swiped by impressive cold, setting up a couple a good radiational cooling morning ... and those single digit anomalies too place. But, the lack of sustaining is certainly true.

don't be so literal it's a goodly bit tongue-in-cheek. "It wouldn't shock me" is a common trope for half hearted seriousness

You're problem is that you think I'm trying to predict something there... that's an OP ed approach and conveyance - look up what that means. Opinion piecing isn't what you are after there -

Oh, 1888 is coming ... that's the thing, people read missives like that, latch on to one thing, and then almost compulsively over-react - but ... this is what happens when you give provincial rabble that virtual podium and mike of the Internet - Also, you get sociological histrionic crisis' that flirts with anarchistic meltdown. Space and remoteness, and dimmer technology used to protect actually, because by the time time "word" spread, it was already marinaded to truth by the crucible of time it took to actually get that word around. Now, it's so easily disposed, there's 0 zippo no vetting. Just misinterpreted source and reaction. But I digress... I'm kidding half way here... don't over react ahaha