Typhoon Tip

I'm interested in a particular climate metric(s) ... namely, global DP and cloud cover. I'm suspicious of cloud polluted warm sectors over eastern U.S. ...as well as DP's in middle latitudes all around the hemisphere being above normal since 2000.

I would maintain a vigil for checking frequently ... I wouldn't alter plans, entirely ... but considering avoiding regions where tick populations are proven, and certainly where tick-borne infections have been reported. Which, that is admittedly getting increasingly more difficult. The CDC and other officiated information sources are available and I'd suggest studying those as opposed ( hopefully not...) being reliant upon the conjecture found in this or other social media - duh... As an aside, there are tick species not known to be formerly indigenous to regions of the United States, north of roughly the Mason Dixon latitudes, that are being found and found on people and their pets. Both with increasing frequency therein, but also... the advent of arriving new species is in itself increasing. Some of these species harbor truly hideous disease agents... These insects that directly access bodily serum and share between species as they survive within ecological biomes, are nasty and efficient caries of particularly pernicious morbidity. But climate change is breaking down these biomes ... forcing these species to flee. In many cases, extinctions occur...in other circumstances, these newly arriving species into unknown regions parlays, and they find a rich new niche to flourish, replete with warm human blood.. mmm, yummy ... Surprisingly, it turns out ... it doesn't matter? Whether life is as simplistically binary as the decision capacity of a viruses, or as sophisticated as Mozart and math ... everyone tends to move away from hostility - who would have thunk. No ...there's no subterfuge in subliminal attempt at social commentary or political agenda here. Factually, climate change, regardless of cause, is a very, very insidious, yet milquetoast sounding header. One that in reality caps an untenable entangle array of dire consequences ... both directly, but also indirectly as emergent crisis because there are secondary interactions with unknown consequence. We call this... you guessed it, an apocalypse - it's just that it's slow moving. Okay, so maybe a little social commentary: The problem is, humans don't response to threats perceived via warnings ...? They never really have, ...that well. History proves this more times than one can roll their eyes in a life-span. From Pompeii to tornado alley... civility needs Fed assistance far too frequently then their stupidity can afford, and eventually.. there won't be savior umbrella. How's is all that painting any perceivable outcome that ends well when any consortium of scientists attempts to "warn" these global "Trump administration" ilk of Kakistocratic ethos? Answer, good luck. Humanity moves only when one or more of the corporeal five sentences registers a stimulus .. too hot, cold... visibly this, stench that. Some of these are starting to register ( perhaps for the longer termed good). Otherwise, these apocalypse evidences ...they aren't arriving via the drama Hollywood cinema... There's no gray abyssal wall of tsunamis death shadowing the horizon while the Earth rumbles under feat, and angles weep in the skies. If people are waiting for that to stop buying plastic, or burning fossil fuels, so they can sate their indulgences while Wall Street builds up the greatest human construct ever conceived, organized economics, they may be waiting for an eternity whether they are alive or dead.

Well ... if one wants the excitement of convection in their entertainment portfolios ... "sustained" heat does not parlay ( very well ) to thunderstorms - Sustained heat is concomitant with static ridging ... in most cases, which is inherently capping mid levels with a plume of impenetrable, ... convection suppressing air. I mean, one can intuitively back one's self into that conclusion without course work at all: if it's raining, it's not torridly hot for a reason Intermittent heat? Now your cookin! Not that anyone argued, just sayin' ... I'm not sure I agree though that there is no evidence for something more sustained to evolve. The very fact that it's happening, now, in the southeast U.S. ... mmm, you can't say that "couldn't" have set up an anticyclonic axis closer to WV/PA type latitudes. It just happened to not do so, this time. But that SE dome means there are kinematics in the foot-printing of the synoptics for subtropical/continental domes to occur in general ... so one should be leery and not take trophies either. Maybe you'll continue to get lucky. Who knows. As this effects areas farther North... the westerlies arcing over top is ablating the heat penetration in about every other couple of runs. The 00z GGEM has a torrid air for two days mid week out of nowhere ... that model was heavily BD'ed through yesterday's earlier guidance cycles, but about-faced and repositioned the boundary clear up near the St Lawrence seaway on the 00z ... effectively rending the entire region even as far N as PF to Dryslot with a run into the mid or high 80s/70, with 90s pervasive down here, type torridity. That may be the transient heat for big convection Wiz needs - ha. Meanwhille the Euro...? wah wah 50s and 60s regionally, with 50 DP and a very BD penis head looking pressure contouring ... indicative of complete failure for any heat transmission this far N... Not sure I trust that layout that much though either. It's not in the Euro wheel-house performance range yet, and a subtle over amped 'buckle' can cause these BD snow plows to set up. Plus, it's extended range skipping summer entirely and arriving us to mid October is probably an over-sell too ... just off the top of my head. Anyway, uncertainty for this next week is basically because we are right under the westerlies as that all determining tube of make-or-break pattern wind arcs over the SE ridge. For D4.5 + that may be too delicate a task for the club-fisted, permutation prone mid range guidance to handle. That said, I wouldn't bet money down on any GGEM solution... no. I'm just using that model's depiction for the purpose of making the example. Surprisingly ... the GFS' 00z run is a compromise between the GGEM and Euro ... It has just as much chance as the Euro, at this sort of range, at realizing. That 00z GFS runs does bring convection threat back into the mix for mid week. 06z... right back to the Euro look as the westerlies unman the firehose -

Could be some nocturnal activity along that warm push in the wee hours of Sunday morning ... and someone Sunday afternoon may end up under an intense DBZ core with tall cloud integral. Wednesday? Nothing and that's western NE too. That's the way it looks now. Should the modeling change ... okay

Essentially ... 0 chance of convection on the 18z GFS for next Wednesday - ... thankfully for that agenda, it's still 5 days away. For one, the models seem to be spinning up a baroclinic wave over the eastern Lakes and diving it ESE through New England overnight into Wednesday morning... It's spurious in nature how/why the do this... and could very well be way over done. I don't doubt there'll be a warm frontal arm extending east through southern Ontario/NYS and central NE with or without a wave rippling along it... The models just can't resist kinking that feature ..utilizing shrapnel vorticity pieces to do it. Anyway, if that's over done, than that backside lobe of Gulf of Maine sludge never backs down to NYC and that's a massive day 5 bust. Yeah...all possible from this range.

Mishandling the MJO ? ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ?? Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May... Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also. In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year.... They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total... and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992

Could ... being the operative word. Still another way... things have to break just right for that... cuz that's precariously close to BD ending anything fun to look out until year from next August

'Course ...then there's a 'nother school of thinking ... Someone is way overzealous with trough depth over southern/SE Canada ... not like we haven't seen such a gross display by that particular guidance, over that particular geographic region of the planet before so ... heh.

Jammed in the ass crack by a bd wedgy ? ... good luck

Lol ... why? because it's all gone on the 00z models ? can't say I blame anyone ... I've never been completely sold, and it goes both ways too. In other words, it could come back... I don't know. The problem from where I'm sitting is that this 'ridge in the east' is really not 'in the east' ... IT's in the southeast. It's way down there. The center axis of the deep layer anticyclonic torque is centered over Huntsville Alabama or thereabouts... As you know, we really need that over WV or so ...otherwise, the westerlies run over the top and ablate the heat, at other times, relax enough that a passing warm sector might grab some of heat and swath it through for a day-day and half. Recently, we had the latter... now, we go back the other way, and the vulnerability of that total large synoptic circulation structure is that NO heat on this run gets really much N of PA ... and we even have BD exact oppositve of 90s on wednesday ... In fact, it might in the 50s with mank if that Euro run verifies... Can't trust it either way though... What we can trust is that the ridge is too far S for confidence in how we may or may not get into any continental warm air mass during next week. If seasonal trend is an indicator? No... the atmosphere engineers a way of f warm enthusiasts right in the corn-hole... while making it look like they had a chance all along just to be particularly vicious in that disappointment. DEFINITELY very high confidence for that overall scenario, based on unrelentingly doing that all year

Not really in that battle but ... I wouldn't gamble those trough incursions are right either.

Hey everybody ...Nasty line of wind/thunder about die coming into SNE. Yayyy

Right ...right and then both it, and the GFS, bring in Autumn right when they climatologically should

I agree overall with your perspectives in the matter, except for the bold (necessarily). It does matter ... but it it's a 'matter' of 'how much'. You may have meant that anyway..just sayn' In reality ..of course there are lower education folk that happen to posses supreme objective intellectual filtering. And maybe they won't be easily led along by the average everyday CNN bomb-drop headline. Just as there are also very educated individuals that are easily motivated by deception - like Ben Carson... wow. The nature of civility is all about overlapping bell curve types. Unfortunately ... the distribution has the ballast not in the overlap, however -

Yeah agree ... Personally, I wouldn't try to argue against the empirical data. I don't necessarily agree with that half of the yard-party consensus, no. I mean ... setting the 'total number of days with the cd up the bum shoot' record ...? Regardless of any yard-party consensi, that justifies my impression of this being annoying. I was just trying to play a bit of d-advocate. They could've just said springs suck here, and this was therefore typical - that might have been a fair way to put it too. God I f'n hate this sewage catch basin of a geography in the spring. There's acceptance of norms... fine. we get it... But, that doesn't make it something one wants to necessarily go through, either. "How was the spring in new england this year? Oh ...it was awesome - we got 21 out of 30 days with no sun in drizzle. you know ..it's interesting. I was watching the overhead on the 'mill at the gym the other day and a local Met was discussing how the region was above normal rainfall since March. The most above was 1.42" 1.42? ?!? whaaa ... As face smack butt bang nasty as the weather has been, it coulda been a foot above normal.

There's also the conditionalizing of society issue... Don't be shocked if we encounter a headline or two in the coming days, pertaining to NWS' missing the boat on one day versus the other - which would be infuriating because in reality, they didn't miss any boats. But society folk don't care about facts ... they only care about what affects them ... Should said facts fit inside that experiential envelope ...they are fine to extend credit where credit is due. Otherwise, their hair is on fire - Missouri was particularly hard hit yesterday ... from personal perspective to commerce and in between, considerably more so note-worthy in the "affects them" compared to the OMG warnings the day or so before verified. Even though both days provided impressive results ... it's going to register a partial failure. It may be hard to draw the line between failure and perception -

I was noticing the morning 'dirt' in that barotropic swath and thought to was a modest mitigator ... I wonder if cloud contamination was greater, say, than under bias in said Meso's .. causing them to over-evaluate diabatic heat/SB CAPE - interesting...

I'm kinda of curious ... two days ago there was a lot of mainstream media headlining about the 'catastrophic' tornado outlook ... yesterday ... I didn't notice as much drama from those same sources, and even SPC didn't appear too elevated; yet, just taking a quick look at their storms reports graphic spanning the last three days, it almost seems yesterday was comparable to in tornado results to the day of the supposed catastrophic outbreak. Not attempting to impugn any one or agencies efforts ...but I wonder, if one day "looked" to be one thing and the other day turned out to actually do it, if that is a good opportunity to compare and contrast to identify why -

I was at a yard party on Saturday and there were two distinct consensus' when the season/climate stuff came up as it inevitably does in those social settings around circles of paper plates and draft beers ... Some thought the difference between this year's 'spring' and the last few is that this year we actually had one. Others complained like we seemed to do so in here, about plaguing chill and wet. Not sure which reality is fairer described. I found the 'actual spring' side interesting. Namely ... these were randoms chillin' and not complain?' - how does that happen in American backyards... Their consensus was that it's not supposed to be outdoor party weather in April in New England; frankly, at the time I found that to be refreshingly unbiased and well ... true actually... whether it reflects this year appropriately or not. "Weather" it be aphorisms like April showers bring May flowers, or facts ... our climate reality is that we definitely experience > 50 % of April's cool and wet ...at times, sunny with that faux mild to warm appeal, and well... does that sound familiar? Now, granted the stuff in the first 10 days of May was a bit off-putting ... sure. But that in and of its self is/was not all that unusual for Spring in the Northeatern U.S. - we have cold anomalies as part of the Spring norm. The difference could be substantiated if ever the entire spring were say ...> 85% dominated by insulting cold. I'm not sure this year qualifies. Last year, despite being 80 a day in February that was book-ended by several in the 70s... we relapsed brutally in March with snow storms ... And I distinctly recall MLB rolling out the start of the season with mid afternoon temperatures around Northeast stadiums in the 30s clear to mid month! I don't think May was sufficiently offsetting to really correct MAM either ... That may be more conducive for our complaints for this year, ironically... So it may also be hard to separate the empirical numbers from subjective ideology of what spring should be, then adding individual sensible observations. That's like three metrics at once. The first is hard...The other two are really bullshit because all consensus is, is another word for compromise and acceptance of a norm - if one is lucky, their preference happens to fall on the median line. In the end, Spring is about changing of the guard from cold > 70% to cold < 30 % of the time... and of course to get to those ends, there will be peregrinations up and down along the way. Sound familiar? I dunno .. but despite any personal protestations I might have leveled on the matter I am at times still struck with wonder as to how bad it's really been. Yesterday I piled out of the office thinking 69 F MOS numbers with bit of a breeze is nice but... was surprised to find it actually a 75 F. no breeze dry air gem.

No, you don't know how to read without bias apparently? If folks wanted to discuss the ( Meteorology) the anomaly of it in terms of empirical departures ...and useful speculative conjecture as to causalities that related to GW and other multi-variate indexes spanning decades ... None of that was happening. As usual.. it was a snow humping biased gawk fest - that's what it comes off as... And an enabled series of weather results that merely appease a particular drug addiction is not news either..

It's also possible the models are in flux - changing toward warmer solutions ... I've noticed this in the past with GFSX MOS numbers....when they are substantively warmer (colder) looking than the pattern, ... sometimes the pattern sort of evolves toward ... It's like history proved that in some scenarios the warmer(cooler) variations were favored. Here is Newark NJ for sunday through next Wed: 63 87| 68 86| 66 87| 71 91| Those high temperatures are a clear 9 to 15 above climatology and we're talking days 4 through 7, a range that is increasingly weighted/mitigating extremes. So warmer going that far above climo looks like over kill - unless the pattern adjusts more dominating with the ridge perhaps ...etc... and does the evolving thing. Granted KEWR is not in SNE.... but our regional numbers but if the warm bulges more... it won't make much difference either. Edit

I know ... seems like collectively at a minimum we employed the trope, 'watch us end up above normal' at one time or the other, and probably meant it more than sarcasm at the time too - I think he means his Twitter audience - ...which probably doesn't include that many regulars/return users here. don't know - But I know I mentioned myself that nightly lows were not appreciably cold ...and that diurnal chill was mainly during the day ... giving us a faux impression of how bad it was ( perhaps )..

Meh ... You didn't ask me for this opinion buuut, nah - Folks certainly appreciate today's weather just fine. I mean ...are we really expecting five pages about 74 F blue bird quiescence ? But it goes similar to News media necessity? If it's not dire, it's not on fire, and you only yell fire in a crowded theater In other words, what's copasetic isn't news-worth because news is intended to inform of circumstances doing harm, regardless of what form. Today's weather isn't one of those times ... It's concomitant with the nature of all things great and small... not threat = no warning = nothing to talk about ... But it doesn't mean people don't like the day.

Day and a half but ... one could even argue the 'big' heat has trouble getting here. The plume advects more S of our latitude. I mean there's a semantic debate about what 'big' means in this context... As far as I'm aware, I'm the one that started that saying back in the Eastern days... at the time, I meant it for at or > than 95 F ... If that's at all a reasonably metric ... the 18 C/ 850 mb we are skimmed could fail to eclipse that number given the SW trajectory of wind in that general synoptic evolution. Might only nick 94.5... lol But, again...there is a semantic tainting that goes with heat. Some argue that if the DP falls less than 70 ... 94.5 is more like tolerable but annoying. Other's think that's Hades comes to Earth...

Heh... that is the third cycle of the Euro out of the last seven or so where it has goosed the 850 thermal layout across that D6 to 10 range like that... one of which the GFS also agreed upon, before both lost it. In fact the first was supposed to be this Friday when we are presently entangled in that mess.. I wouldn't get too happy about D7 heat for now.. I think y'all are correct, however, in the general theme that at minimum we are more likely to experience climate-friendly/temperature form of pattern... That's an acceptable theme from what I'm seeing.