Typhoon Tip

whatever happens on the 9th this just 3 days later. spectacular turn around

yeah, that's kind so 1998

Keep in mind ... every system in this time range, since Thanks un-giggedy ..., has both de-amplified and sped up. In theory this thing on the 9th is setting up in less compression, but ... whenever less compression has been signaled in this same time range, it has amplified and recompressed gradually in ensuing runs The two are probably related... as the latter takes place, it starts robbing form the former. Not sure I see a compelling reason why this would be different this time but we'll see. Also, again ... the PNA is marginal on the 9th. As I was describing before, it is in the process of -d(PNA). That means that support is trying to diminish. Some wiggle room tho ... just be cognizant of that. ( yeah right!)

It's a very large organization of clock punchers doing tasks they are trained for. It's not a knock on their intelligence or character, but that 06 and 18z was improved recently - it's not hard to imagine the Met making the statement either doesn't know that, or, questions the "up" in the "upgrade"

I so hope this happens for shear fascination of it ... but just a CH of correction on the Euro is a 12-15" blizzard, then ... look at this warm front barely 2 days later! That sucker's totin' 70+ no question ...it would be really amazing to see that air mass punch into that

That D10 GGEM would be fun to see the 11th just for model shits and giggles - that was en route to becoming the biggest storm ever anywhere E of the planet Jupiter in the history of the solar system

We've definitely turned the corner on the season. It's just a matter of coming out of it in increments, frets and starts. It's gonna be like 1.5 steps forward, followed by .75 steps backward for the next 12 or so days. Beyond that ... if the teleconnectors are correct, we have a much more impressive synoptic layout emerging for warmth after the 10th. It's not as far as we think. Tomorrow's the last day of February. But for the time being it is like any other extended out look... obviously there are uncertainties in what that will all mean. These operational versions are just beginning to toy with it out there as the charts emerge over the distant temporal horizons. So far ... if your a spring/warm enthusiast, that is encouraging for the time being.

Man ..it'd be a terrific opportunity for a Michael Bay movie... ... the entire land-based ice cap up and slides off the continent one fateful afternoon. Probably early October, after the warm season's assault has brought basal flow 'lubrication' to criticality, breaching stability thresholds. Some moment of dialogue when the disaster is unfolding, "...But I thought you said it would take many years to melt." And the reply yells back as the scientist is boarding the helicopter, "Those tremors?! It turns out they were really fore shocks - we didn't know those same mechanics applied!" Sets off a global tsunamis that raises the water level 20 feet all at once in a super-biblical obliterating wall of death and debris, only this wave doesn't eventually wash back out to sea... Where ever it stops, that's the the inherited new coastline. The name of the movie is "Inherit The Ice" - which is beautifully ironic for a title given to the nature of "Global Warming"

The numbers suggest a warm pattern, but the operational Euro's first 'detection' seems to try and send an oscillatory pattern that swings both cold and warm over 2 day periodicity. How extreme notwithstanding, these warm intrusions to our latitude, in that model's run ( 00z) are more like warm sectors that only last for a day because of that oscillating nature. One thing that sticks out is that the flow foot remains very fast. Ex, the Euro sets up a warm bubble/sector out there, with a front way back west of St Louis, and by 36 hours the front is E of Logan/New England. It's hard to tell if that unusual speed isn't just an artifact of the model at a long lead range where ... it probably shouldn't be run in the first place. F'n 300+ hours Meanwhile, the GFS is yawing violently the wholesale deep circulation mode over the continent, between ridge manifestation vs deep troughs over it's last 3 consecutive cycles - basically... there's an entirely new paradigm suggested by the numbers, to kick in post the 10th of Mar ... outside the operational versions range in the best of times, but going from a cold inertial hemisphere, to a warm one, is likely to be a problem during that transition for reliable deterministic solutions.

what direction is the QBO ?

Looks here like what Scott was saying ... impressions like a kink low on a front. There's some deep members here ... but it also could be proximity to the pressure well associated with that deep maritime vortex just along the NE edge of this frame... I'd also caution that numerical support for a system on the 9th-10th is waning. Seems like a candidate for losing amplitude as it nears

Could be one helluva a lower Plains look toward mid month, too

Not to come off condescending or anything but that basal flow rate stuff has been known ...really going back to the early 2,000s. In fact, - check this - but there's a field anecdote out there about a day in the times out on the ice sheet with scientists stationed there. An encampment from the U.S., Sweden and Russia. We're sure they're not partial to political lines and geodesy out there amid that expanse; they're probably hooch chums... anyway, on this day there was a 3.change seismic event recorded. It turned out after corroboration between those surrounding stations, and matching with GPS of the times, ...the stations and their occupants, en masse, bodily up and moved some distance toward the NW. It was the actual ice cap in their immediate vicinity ... displacing all at once. The distance doesn't have to be terribly large, mind us... we're talking about a million trillion tonnes of ice or whatever incomprehensibly large amount it was... The thought of a mile high ice column sliding along for any distance though - This is probably an urban legend? Sure sounds like great opening salvo to a Sci Fi movie if it is fiction. But since it was a part of the field water cooler muse of the day ... the specter has been known to be plausible for some time - I came by this back in 2003 I want to say.

That's true anyway... Whether they manifest or not? fair enough, that can't really be ascertained. But I'm not sure those should limit you to "not seeing" a pathway toward an anomalous warm period - which by the way, I'm not talking about the whole spring. This was the mid March stuff... Anyway, some years have big warmth, early - so yeah ...sometimes the BS can be suppressed.

tongue in cheek aside... Yeah, at least through the first week or so, March may do what march does.

Not sure what you are looking at when you say, "I don't see" but compendium of classical indicators are warmer than your characterization. If those indicators were nominal, ...no problem. But that is not the case. They are pointed up. Otherwise, why are there indicators at all if one is not going to use them? But beyond that... they are useful and that's been demonstrated enough in the past to be empirical and objective. Is it fair to say they are not always correct? sure - But, so long as we are staring at a wash of +2SD AO(NAO), +2SD EPO, whilst -2SD PNA from ~ the 10th thru the 18th, ... perturbations along the way not withstanding, and not appearing disruptive, it becomes unclear how someone might come to the conclusion that they don't see how - LOL good luck. I don't wish to gaslight anyone's perceptions - it's just that these indicators ... I'm not making this shit up. There's that,... plus the intangibles - like the recent decadal trends for spring warm burst synoptic events. Or the longer term indicator of La Nina's sometimes ( but not always...) setting up springs that are decidedly above normal. Or the CC background elephant taking big shits in the room at all times, smelling like we go above average anyway ... I actually "see" it the other way. It'll be interesting to see which way it goes.

pretty good naper going on out there. 52 with intense sun through purity blue. You can tell it's sub- March sun but feels quite warm only modestly less. The breeze is still just enough to offset the affect of fake warm bubble inside of a cool air, but I'd still give it a 7/10. The wind needs to be calm in moments to really get that vibe.

And it may be heading out the door on future run/means. we'll see... Thing is ... uuuusually, a larger hemispheric systemic change, like going from the cold inertia ( to use that phrase again ) into a completely new paradigm ( that happens to be warmer no less - ) take longer and the guidance will often enough bias on the short side of when that really happens. In this case? it seems a speed up is happening. It may be the solar irradiance/flux increasing ...not sure, but something is trying to speed this up. I noticed the telecon spread has -PNA now on the 9th...where prior it was -d(PNA)... so the -PNA scaffolding, when the NAO is statically positive...not sure how that really numerically supports the 9th. That 5-7th transit through the Lakes,... my guess is hoping that corrects E, because that one still has ( though slipping) numerical support.

Apples and oranges comparison really .. 2012 preceding February was almost as absurdly warm - not in scalar value but relative to climate. I can recall cargo shorts and just light sweat shirt sometimes tied off around the waste on Saturday mornings, every weekend that February playing disk golf. The pattern lead was highly conducive; just a little more synoptic nudge was both easy to get there, and probably likely given the inertia in the total system... This? different scenario entirely. We are going from a cold inertial state, trying to correct toward a new paradigm that removes that inertia. From a modeling perspective, there is 0 ( Z-E-R-O) logical usefulness in attempting to compare the settings of either year. We may very well flip to some sort of obscenely warm scenario... we might. But it would be coming from apples, not oranges. Or, we may end up with some lesser variation too...etc. I think for now, the better take away is that spring is coherently and undeniably in the present indicator outlooks. Just be aware that there is a higher ceiling also a part of all that.

sometimes I think planet earth created SNE just for the purpose of being an abandoned, cold misery cesspool -

Big time Labradorian anus pointed at us. Take that 00z Euro. It's not likely to verify as is, no, but just to use that to make the example. In a situation like that the warmth in SNE is very precarious. If that mid level orientation rotates even 5 deg in the clockwise over Ontario, that boundary will collapse SE down the coastal plain clear to NE Va. It'll be 76 F to 40F across eastern PA we'll be so far inside the rectum that it's not even close. Meanwhile, from orbit the pattern looks like we're breaking warm weather records to add to the insult

Anyway, telecon insists a significant change occurs ... the timing is the 10th and has been for like 10 days since this signal was very outer horizon, and is now 12 days... Still time to modulate, but, in that time the signal has only grown. The operational runs ending up around 300+ hours with that ridge in the SE and the polar boundary displaced west... warmer hydrostats flooding up to at least Boston's latitude might be an early detection from those sources, but it really is way too early to sure there. This all, so far, only useful to warm weather enthusiasts like me, who like to monitor the seasonal transition, for now.