Typhoon Tip

They can't get it right at D8 with much continuity, so "long range now" unfortunately means less than even the usual long range dung. Not much about this looks very realistic from the long range Euro

EPS follows the operational's lead. My hero's the Euros with zeros heh

the one for the 20th...

Yeah it's the age old dilemma of whether the model run can actually happen or not. One has to remember it's about probability's > 0 and < 100 ... there's not absolute. For starters, the models are not putting out solutions that are physically impossible.

Relax Kevin .... we're talking about the GFS. There's something off with the GEFs forecasting, perhaps systemically. No one said this means were getting that to transpire.

something is going on that's a little off here. you don't get the entire ensemble mass to move as dramatically as this, in a single run - at D6 no less... It's one thing if the operational version meanders off into a fantasy for a run or two. But these giant movements have been sharing the space, en masse, systemically at the same time. You probably don't recall my mentioning last week with all the noise in here... that there may be something legit there, but it's perhaps ( supposition here...) just being unusually masked by the circumstantial hemisphere of shenanigans going on... This thing did this pop up out of nowhere act last week on a couple of runs by the way. Went from barely discernible to an ominious look... , only to vanish. It's been yawing back and forth with very odd variance

oh f so it is... jesus here's the 00z vs 12z run correction for D6: I will also add ...this happened last week, folks. We had a run or two where this huge single run explosion of presentation lurched on, then.... vanished. I remember saying to Will in a post back then, that it seems like there may really be something there worth monitoring, but perhaps something peculiar about the model challenges IN in this period, were/are just masking it. ...Sometimes a run gets through the mask so to speak - we'll see...

It's the one we were originally tracking for the 9th ..etc. etc..

Right ...two different aspects in play. the CC stuff - true the warm anomalies in the models, particularly in March have less predictive skill than cold ones. They both error and/or won't be precisely accurate in longer lead guidance, but of the two... warmth has the bigger error potential. The "our location" has a bullet point list of different aspects that can be expanded upon but no one's going to bother reading them haha

I think it's an important distinction ... This -EPO dominating 8 week assault, 30 years ago? One might wonder if this winter would have been a different beast, if/when doing some sort of attribution calculus that involves subtracting CC factorization. It's like you might end up with a quotient that says, "if we were not porked by a warming world, this -EPO winter would have been X cold, not X' cold" just a broad supposition/curiosity here. Not declaring CC victory or anything

It's not just the GFS... All guidance sourcing, including their respective teleconnector derivatives started insidiously changing matters, beginning last Thurs or Friday, and have been eroding at the warm complexion all weekend since. Almost by sense more than coherence... The oper. Euro actually has even gone so far as to propose winter event around the Ides - however zero confidence for the time being ... But it's the laughable insult of it at all, considering what had been suggested all along. That's the usual consequence in dealing with extended ranges, but in this case it is being compounded even further by three factors: 1 March extended range modeling performance in particularly (due to seasonal change and solar forcing), often enough proves to have been an extra special piece of shit. 2 Warm anomalies are the most fragile, non-committed metric of all handling in guidance as a general practice. Small perturbations that may even go less noticed ... decapitate and/or redistributes it geographically, and it causes larger error compared to when following cold anomalies. While both tend to be over amplified, in general, too. This goes both ways. They over and/or under perform more frequently, but the warmer side varies more. 3 The sensitivity as I look now through mid month, appears to be coming from realigning the super synoptic aspects between the mid continent and the N-NE Atlantic. There's been either a manifestation of positive height anomalies, or "behaviorally" wrt to the circulation, depending on model and cycle. In either case, suppressing the flow back SW of where the -PNA was previously sending heights N. The ridge in the SE ends up pancaked ... completely different scenario if all that happens. Whether there is a linear (coherent block) or non-linear (when flow acts like there is one when it isn't apparently there) that is a -NAO going on, and either is causing the previous warm Ides to do what most do in this anus of season and region of the planet. Here is the problem with all this ... the NAO is an even more miserable piece of modeled shit to index. That's code for don't believe it - but I'm sure that won't stop people from licking the toad. In fact, it's not fiction really to claim that half of these (-) or (+) NAO outlooks just don't end up occurring ... If this factorization goes the other way, it's likely the ridge reasserts and proxies the temperature anomaly on the warm side - usually at the perfect time to ruin all the enabled d-dripper highs. There is still a -PNA/+EPO in place while the models attempt to change the orbit of Jupiter over one index ... so there's a lot of correction tension pointed on that side.

Best to hope for an operational CMC version as we had toward the 12th. If the operational GFS is more right, heh. -NAO west vs east bias may play a role.

GEFs are diametric to that at this time. Also - that is a new obtrusion into a longer term continuity; sudden continuity changes are typically proven suspect. Just sayin it may not be stable as an outlook - Lastly, the spatial/synoptic features out in time have blocking heights over the eastern limb of the NAO. That bias correlates to raising heights E of Chicago to the EC...and with the -PNA well under way ( negative west, positive east), these correlations et al don't bode well for us winter enthusiasts. Best to set up our expectations lower.

That's how you we know it is finally spring ... The phenomenon in itself, of can't truly enjoy a nape afternoon like this .. because the sullen realization of tomorrow's cold, is quite endemically identifiable to this p.o.s. geographic region of the planet at this time of year.

You almost wonder if there's really a bigger deal lurking for the 9th but there may be circumstantial shitty noise sort of hiding it? Look at this 12z GEFs mean out of nowhere with bright beacon at 200 hours - this was absent on the recent runs until you get back to 12z yesterday and it had it again. It's like it's there but being occasionally masked by something. This below gets a final hurrah taken care of, no doubt. EPS, nada for the most part ... wave on the front rocketing east.

Euro's not interested ... In fact, as I was mentioning to Scott earlier in the day ... the 00z op Euro was incongruently too cold looking for the telecon spread ...recent trends also. This 12z seems to have corrected much of that. It had the 9th bomb in the 00z run but it's opting on this run for something that's more sensible

Blue bomb incarnate ... It would be somethin' if there was wind coupled with 33 F S++ That GGEM solution is oddly deep when looking at the QPF layout/behavior. It's as though the model deepens the low, prior to the QPF output... that's backward. The QPF happens during the bombogen - the lifting air is what causes the goods to fall out. That's how that works. This is paltry QPF on the way down to a 960 something low, then it starts getting heavy after the fact. But, it is also the GGEM beyond 10 minutes in the future so taken with own risk

one step closer to my evil plan to punch 75F air mass into a 15" snow pack ... muah hahahahaha

GGEM buckin' for the 9th again...

It's marginally less impressive than the GEFs, too. The thing is, these Feb/Mar heat bursts have been a phenomenon that are identifiable. We can find other examples of them occurring going back centuries... but it's the frequency of them that is paramount. It's spooky to see them improve to roughly 1::3 or 4 years. It is unprecedented against the century based climate density - an aspect that began over the last 20 years or so. They are happening regardless of leading longer term seasonal bias indicators. So it's not very correlative to PDO this or Polar field that, or ENSO this... Being 15+ diurnal mean should not happen as often as it has, period. Anyway, they are ultimately pretty harmless. I mean, look out! Perfect short sleeve weather with light breezes at masturbatory temperatures isn't exactly inspiring a dystopian mad dash for the hills - but they are kind of like heroin. The feel really good, but it belies the damage that they represent. ... risking going down that rabbit hole. It's worth it to try and identify how they materialize. I think the teleconnector outlook is trying to set that table, so it's worth it to test if so. That's all.

I know ... he's always done the clown act in here .. pretty patently obvious. I like to expose that once in a while because he hates it when I do - hahaha

It doesn't ... There's nothing about that 850 mb temperature anomaly that supports a surface temperature of 90 F anywhere in New England. Kevin is a clown. He's been an irresponsible poster for many years. Despite encouraging him to change into a responsible poster ... he just won't. Or perhaps can't seem to really amend his ways. Fun guy to hang out with over quaff and ball bustin' times at pubs here and there. Would I buy a car from the him? Fu no. You are more correct in your attempt to reason through based upon observing what is really being conveyed in that product - then using some intelligence in trying to work it out. The product is painting a vast above normal 850 mb level temperature anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent. About mid way up the anomaly scale - it can be much more but as for now it is what it is. But, +6 or +7, in March, when the sun is sufficiently strong enough to warm the surface and start mixing the planetary boundary layer closer to the 850 mb level - whereby those temperatures can be adiabatic to the surface, would support a temperature in the lower or middle 70s under ideal heat conditions. If there is snow on the ground, that would not be ideal. It would obviously offset... But if the cutter(s) in the foreground eat the pack back to bear ground, and the 9th doesn't materialize... there is some chance to maximize that outlook.

it's quite incongruently cold, spanning the local hemispheric scale, with respect to where the teleconnectors have long argued we are heading - and still do as of last night's EPS derivatives. The EPS derived EPO has shut off the cold supply. The PNA is negative after the 9th - yet the operational version parts company and meanders into a +PNA .. There's also a tinge there of ignoring seasonal change, which is going to force the hand of the models as we are nearing the equinox and beyond. While and if the polar fields are shut off and the mid latitudes are left open to being pummeled by increasing solar, that's dubious what the Euro's doing for that as well. There's a lot there that is out of line. I'm not sure how much of the Euro can be trusted because of that. The GEFs are slightly more uniform then the EPS mean, but the EPS mean is still not supporting the Euro operational and remain warm implicating. The op Euro is just a straight up odd-ball cold outlier. We'll see I guess.