Typhoon Tip

Hard to feel very confident about a warm interlude in the mid range out there when the supposed better performing guidance types keep sending bulbs of +PP eastward N of a boundary that only has about 75 miles of wiggle run stretching between BUF-BOS. Climo in March? that ends up south. we'll see Looks like a classic set up for 70s that actually go onto verifying as 45ers while it's 70 in S of Newark NJ

https://phys.org/news/2025-03-global-sea-ice-february-world.html

nice ribbon echo in there

Today's melt appears more effective than any yet for the snow pack around here. It's visibly retreating by the hour. We're up to 55 and the DP's 47 let's do this

based on ?

Equinox is on the 20th this year so 2 weeks.1 ... I don't know why I sense this but it feels like the extremely low probability decent April's en route

Clocks ahead in 4 days. At least the models will be too late in the day to matter anymore. Heh, might be the best thing for the lot of us ...

I bet also these cold shots over the next week end up busting too cold - by how much, notwithstanding. We've shut off the local hemisphere's loading mechanism for cold with the +EPO, and with the solar min behind us, along with the rising solar transition over continent, this has typical machine lagging written all over it. I bet on Friday it's more like mid 40s at 3pm. METs actually 41 to 42 at HFD, FIT and ASH so ... probably being too finicky but for some reason I have this crushing nerdiness about temp recoveries in the season of spring.

it'll arrive later ... you'll get plenty of thaw time tonight and probably tomorrow when the dry slot warm sliver sends everyone to 63 ahead of the lagging CAA

actually ...much to the chagrin of my own cynicism, we're up to 50 here with a bit of an observable actual S breeze. It's in the mid 50s in ct/ri and probably thus heading here later this afternoon. We just don't have any sun. Wasting a nape potential with the proficiency of wasting cold this last winter. ha

Totally! but ... I don't believe it. It's really 58F

... showing that it's certainly possible to successfully entreaty a different response, one that did not end up in this -so far- failed acceptance of what is really true in the case of CC. How and why-for such a broadly brushed repulse to CC came about is a post vastly tl;dr It will be proven true tho, inevitably the hard way. Hopefully the hardness of heads will be proven finally soft enough to penetrate with reality, in time, but probably not. There won't likely be achieved reduction thresholds ...blah blah, resulting inimically in the horrors of "force population corrections", through both subtle and gross means... That's a dystopian not-so-fictional expose' for another sub forum thread ..etc.

Stunning new CGI footage reveals the moment Blue Ghost spacecraft fakes touching down on the moon https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/05/science/blue-ghost-moon-landing-footage/index.html

The problem with post-modern society is that somewhere along the way in getting here, there's been this new reproach to everything where, if one doesn't understand something or does not like the implications of something, they don't apparently have to believe it even exists. This is proooobably precipitated out of the fake news momentum that waved through culture about 10 years ago - remember that? It was tongue 'n' cheek but ... heh, now we suffer the ramification of the "alternate reality" fixation . ..Which is a luxury anyway - take away the industrial advantages of ass wiping our consequences away whenever we are objectively false ... there's a negative feedback that leads to false morality ... in turn defaulting to this form of abstinence. It has been enabling people's approach to everything into basically a systemic lessening of returns - and ... duh duh dunnn, psychobabble science has papered that the commoner IQ is some 20 points lower than it was prior to 1920 - so, we warm the planet, and cool the intellects, then the latter re-enforces the former, and we have a nice closed feed-back loop that ensures a finality that ...well, - most are probably too stupid to believe is even possible... But that chart above? We might be surprised how little that actually means anything to the majority of population. It's a cool blue knife.

It's over ... man, it's down right palpable in the guidance complexion. Sure, it's not impossible to cash in on a bowling ball low ... Or if the -NAO does in fact materialize, then relaxes --> some sort of restoral event... either way. But, I find those as fleeting possibilities that are not dependable. We'll see. But depending on these to happen, also when a warmer world was only just suppressed all along and feel we've been sort of collectively enabled or lulled into forgetting that, mmm Warmth is spring loaded and may be ready to bounce the other way, pun intended. See, this is where you and I have tended to agree in the past... When the next season is air apparent, I like to have on with it. Rip the band aide off, sans the fantasy and hiding head in the enabling sand, and go big. Of course, personal druthers and reality seldom share space but hey ... there's always dreaming.

Enjoy your "taste" of spring everybody ...

with objective reality ? go for it

It will become less and less likely ...reducing in probability of return, every year moving forward while the objective reality of climate change continues.

I'm hoping it scours this granular pack away frankly. Snow banks are exposing dog turds and whatever in the hell-o societal shit stains now and the stuff in the fields is useless

So would the NAO be sort of a prerequisite to any such event? ... as I was mentioning to Kevina, yesterday, I've seen these big NAO deals in the models just up and not happen some 50% of the time. Negative or positive. I haven't done a deep dive this morning yet, but just on the surface of what I have glanced at during these droning morning meetings ... there's signs there that this -NAO is also showing some continuity issues already. I wouldn't be shocked if it mutates into some less variation ... in which case, a recovery type/restoral event ( which is kinda what you're intimating there) isn't really required as much and there we go. Then again, "bowling season" kicks in now and lasts thru ~ Easter every year, which can happen regardless, too. Those types don't seem to be related to anything

There's two things going on concurrently ... 1 sensors being above normal 2 the baseline normal is actually a +d(normal) For sensors that are manifesting only minor error, it gets difficult to parse out how much is the sensor's fault vs the changing background state. What's annoying is when any one attempts to divisively use the sensor's contribution to the error, to downplay and/or avoid accepting the background state. Having said that... yeah, in this case, +2 when every other surrounding climo site is mere decimals above or below ( most below...), that's fairly suspect.

Tracking spring's arrival ... ... Thursday mid day to late afternoon looks spectacular on this 12z NAM FOUS grid. +7 at 900 mb and +2 at 800 mb, with at least partial sun - whatever the machine guidance has, you go above it by a click or two. I checked the 500 and 300 mb relative humidity and they are <50% so the cirrus pollution will be minimal. That all spells probably the first maxing of a mixing level due to daytime heating. If we get +5C at 850 in that general synopsis we'll be near 70 in the 2-meters Granted, this is just the NAM ... but I'm imagining what that will be like. It's been months since any temperatures even close to that - it will be a 'spring fever' at least for

This op ed above is moronic by an idiot who happens to have articulation skills.

Except for that obvious tendency for -NAO retrograde behavior to the circulation mode to suppress heights along 40 N, sure ... If we can avoid that, bombs away. The question is whether it is real or not. I spoke at length about this yesterday but it likely wasn't read. The NOA index is the worst handled of all of them. The models may phantom either negative or positive modes, about half of the time. This negative NAO, or quasi likeness to a -NAO circulation over eastern Canada, was not a part of the original warm outlook for the mid month. It became a part over the last 3 to 4 days-worth of guidance. Warm enthusiasts will have to rely upon the poorer performance of the index and 'hope' the current -NAO coherency in the runs is false. Otherwise, ... the warmth will not get past 40 N - or perhaps 40 F either. It just doesn't at our latitude, and proximity to the rest of the continent, in March, if/when there is a backward oriented jet coming from the D. Straight and pointed at the Great Lakes. So we'll see.