Typhoon Tip

Does anyone remember that big historic blizzard the GFS had for yesterday and today about a week ago ? heh. 28 to 47 in ~ 2 hrs here, matches the NWS sites too so it's not just an artifact of home siting, either.

Impressive 1 hour recovery here this morning... I love these fast diurnal delta days. It was 28 here at dawn, and it's 42 now spanning ~ 1.5 hours. 28 to 45 at near-by FIT

Ha .. I was just remarking that same sentiment to my self last hour. weird - It's like the guest of honor slipped away from the party while everyone was carrying on and then looking around, hey, what happened to Joe.

Tho guidance is yet to fully commit to an eastern ridge mid and late month the overnights do still move a couple of passes of warmth through the period. With cool downs being comparatively weaker, gives the allusion to moving the seasonal change from 1st to 2nd grade. Btw .. today appears to be a high "nape factor" ... Looks like 58's sprinkled around, with primarily warm March sun sky and much lighter wind .. this will create those comfortable moments that exceed the actual air temperature.

https://phys.org/news/2025-03-scientists-trump-threaten-climate-safety.html

"warm pattern" or not, the operational runs just have been unrelenting in putting out synoptic complexions that are clearly underperforming the teleconnector correlations. Not sure what's up with that. This kind of Euro for example ... does this negative nodal clown show right through a -2 PNA. Guess we can cancel global warming now

I'm happy with 43 if the sun's shining and the winds are light. Nape factor will be above an 8::10 in that setting and won't feel chilly at all. Move the wind around and it quickly reverses, but those synoptics don't look that way at the moment.

B+ for sustaining snow pack. I've never seen 4.5" last so long in any winter spanning my tenure on this planet like that which transpired up until very recently. Just wasn't very much. Otherwise it would be a solid A

I look at this stuff every day. I did not see that in the models once since 3 or more days ago. Not sure what you were looking at but cheers - there's no push back tho.

That front sagging south mid week has been consistently evident on the models for 4 days ... not sure that really constitutes "keeps getting pushed back". This post 10th period was evidenced as an oscillatory pattern in general for a week's worth of guidance, too. There was some suggestion when this was a distant outlook that perhaps a bigger warm event might be out there, but it only lasted 2 days before what we are seeing now in the models ever since. That all said, they are all putting up 560 dm thicknesses over the entire NE conus, with 850s nearing +10C (13 over western NYS!) this next Saturday and Sunday. SW wind mixing deep layer atmosphere. Should that prevail ...any sun at all at it will be 70 - there's aspect there for warmth/spring enthusiasts to celebrate.

Yeah..it's fake. The GFS technology does this every year between the end of February and some interminable dates in May, where it regresses the extended range . It takes whatever warmth is in the model, and processes it out like it's an error. I've noticed this about the GFS model tech years ago, and still does this in springtime. I think what's happening is that it's thermodynamic processing is coming up with a cold quotient ... it's very subtle. Decimals really. But integrating that over time? it cumulatively ends up with colder heights, coldest too regularly comparing to the other guidance clusters inside the polar domain of the westerlies. It's only 4-6 dm or so by 300 hours, so it's not really obvious. But, then integrating that over a large area, that effects matters to some non-negligible way. Deeper vortices and a deeper altogether PV mean. You know...it's like it's biased to do this is almost proportional to the advance of spring warming, casting an allusion to resisting seasonal change.

Well .. hopefully this is the last of it until sometime after Nov 1, 2025, with these biting windy cold snaps. To me, they are of very low value - all but unredeemable after Mar 1, when there is nothing other than the cold itself. Looks like we're moving from this into a transitory pattern, where the successive cooling episodes are not nearly as nasty as this nor as bad as have been. Basically ... heading into a pattern that offers nondescript BN/AN oscillations. I can deal with that. Because a seasonal chilly air masses by the middle of March are usually offset by a climbing sun at least. Next Saturday, first 70s ?

There's been some gusts ... okay. I suspect there's a d-drip manufacturing here going on to go along with. haha

Everything just gets stretched in the X-coordinate these days. Including ridges. These features show up out along the temporal horizon of the various guidance, than slowly almost unseen along the way ... we end up with fast flow and things not capable of establishing 'curved forms' as much as they originally looked -or are being diminished in that capacity to some degree. It's why we had a cold or cold enough winter with low snow to show for it, really. That coordinate/correction aspect is a built in negative interference for both storm longevity and integrity = less I've noticed that recent guidance ( like over the last day's worth ) have started backing off on the longevity of the -NAO heading toward the Ides of the month. Can't say we didn't suspect that as a possibility - I wrote about the rug pulling performance problems with that index aplenty. But, despite the lowering resistance, heights are having trouble rising over eastern mid latitude continent, despite also being in a -PNA foot. It's because of this pulling/stretching shit ...

Day and half until bumpin' the clocks ahead. I had hoped ( ...unrealistically so ) that a warm-up might coincide with the longer days, but that mid week just gets colder every time I look at guidance. longer evenings in cold air ... enjoy.

This may be a Q for the banter thread but what is the status with the NOAA after this latest wave of making America great again...? Are we soon destined to observe a coherent degraded product quality, more delays ... model outage frequencies...etc that comes with shortening both arms and intellect? Is that our "much better and more improved state of reality"

Not very remarkable up to this point, here. It's windy ... nothing out of the ordinary. The winds have been less actually than some blowers over the winter. We still have diurnal mixing over the next several hours so there could be some better momentum transports.

yup, back to reality tomorrow.

looks like a zygote low pressure forming on the boundary right over you

NAM has d(t) of 14C between 980 and 800 mb over logan at 18z, so about 7C per 90mb. That's a bit steeper than standard adiabat so the mixing should be efficient. It's only put 31kts sustained at mid BL tho, so... good lapse rate at least

Euro is oscillating between blase AN air masses that end with d-drip fake wind events back to a day and half of BN ... then repeating.

yeah yeah, we know -

Man that is an ugly sfc evolution next week from the 12z op GFS. Bring back the 00z please ...

it may be that there are two disparate things going on ... Those models you mention may be over selling the mixing. But the March sun and bigger gusts aspect is real physics. It's just not clear if these models are picking up on that, or if they are just wild for some other reason. The sun's aspect may not account for the amount of overturning in the models, in other words.

Not trying to sell Kevin's roof ending up on Boston Common, but ... keep in mind, the March sun is very powerful compared to even Feb, and getting stronger by non-negligible %'s per day as we approach the Equinox. The boundary layer will bump ... Whether this is 'why' BUFKIT may appear so well-mixed or not, there is an environmental argument that convective overturning and BL expansion being proficient - just because it may be an annoyingly cold day, doesn't mean these mechanics are not in play. This is just an added aspect to concern. It's not the same CAA as it is on Jan 6 when the sun is shining from a cool azimuth.