Typhoon Tip

This is pretty well set as a minoring snow to mix to crud while waiting for a polar boundary to swoop back through and sinter whatever it is that's on the ground - some of which might rapid melt if there is a 42-ish temp burst for awhile as the front first comes through and CAA is typically lagged by a little. System is ultimately weak, and ultimately moving too fast to really be much of an impact beyond that pedestrian sort of inconvenience. Also, like the last couple of events in this ludicrous speed flow, it will probably also attenuate if not just fail QPF realization by some 20 or 30% -

"...Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience..."

There was two reasons one might suspect a colder correction to these mid range products, but the models are carpet surfing reasons to offset them ( lol ) 1, the NAO being negative. Here's the rub on that... I just noticed that the NAO isn't actually negative at CPC. I was deferring to a different source before. So there's discrepancies/argument over the real index depending on what source is used. The CPC changed their calculation approach last year. They still use PCA ( Principle Component Analysis - you can look that up.. ) but they now rotate it... "rPCA" The 'supposed' advantage, is that it lower(raises) the field and exposes a 'truer' value. Whether that is true in this case or not, it just is what it is ..and right now they are actually positive-neutral-positive. The other source I've seen is negative. However, the insistence of these operational runs to run the 13th ( for example ) up the St L. corridor, strikes me as a positive leaning NAO - less colder correction chances. Or... if all this isn't complicating enough, the NAO ( as we know... ) can be distributed more west or east in the domain. That can f'up the expectations in its own right. So the bottom line on the "correction vector" ...it's not as clear. 2, compression and faster streamline flow tends to offset curved surfaces. That's just physics. That's why the wave numbers go down in the heart of winter, because the flow speeds up with seasonal gradient increase.... and this necessarily stretches the L/Ws ... This principle applies also to the anomalous state of compression that is exaggerated over the continent, which has been demonstrative if not predominating this winter as a predicament. Anyway ... this tends to keep the trajectories from turning as the deep layer troposphere leans more w-e in the flow type. As an aside, the 16th is nuts... Both the EPS and GEFs take a NY Bite low center at 162 or so hours, ...and 6 hours later, it is E of the BM! That's like 350 naut miles, so this low is moving 60 or 70 mph.

It doesn't even end winter... It just makes it misery. Rain than refreeze... rinse and repeat 1980s. Not sure why "Dr No" was ever euphemistic; it should have been "Dr. Asshole" - I mean if we're ending winter, as in penetrating thaw under climbing sun, I'd be all for that. That shit last night's just a dudgeon

Get a look at the AI for the 23rd

Something I've noticed about any guidance from the Canadian species ...they just can't ever have ZR in the artistry of the chart cinemas. It's either snow, or a 300 mi wide sleet swath than rain through the event cross-section

Well ... vectors are like assholes, I guess If I were to summarize a vector I'd say pointing toward attenuating as it approaches in time, while tending suppressed. I don't know what that means for future model solutions containing dark blue ink and magenta QPF

I dunno if it's completely opposite... First of all, I don't believe any such "consensus" contained huge confidence related to individual events - that may seem academic but still needs to be said... That pattern was more certain than the dissemination of goodies. However, I don't believe the limitations and so forth are as important to people's perceptions as they should be - that gets us into trouble. We don't filter, we let our hopes up, then we are jaded - that's our own fault... I recall saying myself back a week or so ago that we may miss some of these events that were out there at the time. Anyway, the 6th was never a big deal...and relative to that, it became even less. Then, this last night... I think it did okay, it just did it N of where people of expected. Kind of reminds me of how gradient surplus back in 2001 screwed the Mid Atlantic and sent the big storm into central NE then too - altho a different non-analog, in principle, these speed saturated patterns tend to correct down stream...etc.. Point being, it was a little less... So what we're doing is toying with the idea of a pattern relative performance. If the first couple in the series under-perform ... how does that set our confidence in the 13th or the 16th or the 20th... ? At least this is my take on it -

I will say that I'm not inclined to believe the Euro cluster's either intensity, nor the NW positions given this hemisphere circumstance. Yet, the mean keeps getting stronger on each run cycle. hahaha It seems that was also dependable correction in the run-up to last night; indeed, we saw move (actually inside of 96 hours, too) toward a better 'fit' for the limitations imposed by compression. Namely curved trajectories, like early turns, and deeper lows ..etc, are not as physically capable. I'm not sure if this is the same scenario. The GEFs, grudgingly having to admit LOL ... were a better conserved option for those limitations. So, why is the EPS mean so wildly evolved for the 16th when all those considerations are still in place? It seems so long as we're in the same pattern, a kind of "pattern relative performance" might be useful. man what a headache

That ^ bold is fact, eh ? LOL Like I said in the missive, ".. It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return..." Not sure objective consideration needs to be interpreted as zealot. You say or admit that CC is real, but then if someone offers consequence as mere hypothesis to explain observation ( hint hint, the scientific approach ) you get pissy and condescending - okay

EPS mean is under 990 mb E of Boston, having moved from the Bite along or just S of LI, but ut the 850 mb is too warm. Altho I'm not sure that's abundantly important for the resolution/mean at 168+ hours.

ehh there's something else obviously different - sorry Sometimes a when quacks like a duck, it's a duck. I guess we'll find. Above will turn out true ...and summarily everyone thinks how 'no one saw it coming' lol

Finally ... a Euro solution in this pattern where everyone brims with d-drippin' joy

Also - the 16th has the better shot of being a "criteria verifying" event than the predecessors.

Wrong side of the gradient .. .? I think by that we mean just warm. The gradient is Cuba to Hudson Bay distinction. Lol... But even so, the 12z GFS traded off strength for the 13th, which allows for colder solution. 16th is coming in chilly too. Seems the models are oscillating within the gradient manifold so taken with a degree of incredulity.

Not to pour acid into a paper cut but I wonder if this is what our winters will be for the rest of our lives... and/or getting worse. Like it's not going back to 1995, ever again. This year could be a "2015" modulated by/with a "2023" temperature burst... I'm just basing that posit on persistent "era relative behavior" and suspecting gradient is a problem -how. Regardless of any antecedent teleconditioning correlation - the correlations are all failing. ENSO disruptions, to -EPO only causing compression that is a base-line negative interference fuckitude... We keep playing this game that it's just circumstantial and we'll have to wait. What exactly would we be waiting for? - no, ... that completely elides that what one is waiting for may not be capable of manifesting. It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return. I just keep coming back to this notion, as I grapple with what is impossible to ignore at this point ... it seems that we've already moved the climate needle to where we are trading off negative interference, for snow profiles at our latitude. Like yeah ...it's cold enough, but we can't seem to get there without the compression. In a Lego constructive, simple sense of it... if we warm the world, then try to cool off the polar domain, that means higher gradient everywhere. Ding ding ding... sometimes the simple explanation is the best suitable one to explain things.

mm I wonder ... those areas from VT/NH that received the 6-8" might have done it purely on ratio and not on more liq equiv. I also report a mid event period of ZR in this system's 5.25"belly depths. It's not a lot... granted. It's thin, but, it does hold stack height down a little, and... just be virtue of a warm layer intrusion possibly interfering some with the DGZ level, might atone for the couple of inches less down here. In other words, if judging this event purely based on snow depth, the real bust is actually that it was not all snow - you know? interesting. If all snow, the 6-8" might have been more successful. The surface temperatures never moved here throughout the crux of the heavier fall rates. 26Fer .. there was a tuck of sorts later on as we did briefly dip to 24 for a couple hours prior to dawn during those couple of super fluff inches.

It's 2015 snow.. very high ratio. Same here. 4.5" at dawn, but this final band pivoted south and we're 5.25" now..so call it 5.5 and a day. I could almost sweep 5.5" of snow it is so gossamer. Not a bad event. It's officially my biggest of the season - my location. Seasonal total broke 20 now ... 20.5" so call it 21.

OH god. that too, right ? It's funny, I keep seeing these headlines in the sports -related articulation that read like, "With the Chiefs on the brink of becoming the greatest dynasty of all time..." It may be an accident but that such a gaslight attempt! To me anyway... I don't believe that to be true. I think that those with access to pen and purpose have bought into the "royal couple" crap, because it sells and sells their media - but its manic and conflating magazine pop culture pap ... They want it to be so. But no. Neither intangibly or tangibly in the numbers for that matter. Talk to me when they've been dreaded competition, capable of winning the game before the other team ever stepped on the field, for 18 years and won 6. It's a pettiness, I know. I mean, with the world probably closer to the brink of a nuclear holocaust than most are aware, to even if escaping that destiny, definitely not ending well with this climate shit ... to micro plastics in testicles and ovaries, or the fact that pathogenicity and pathology in general are in a crisis state that no one is paying attention to ... and on and on. Do sports of any dimension matter? Nope. But there is something to be said about being glass-eyed, head wobbling fed-up with harangue, and this case it's being completely and utterly ad nauseam at the specter of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift ... What a big delusional ball of import. Guess what... you still stink after sex. Now good luck to you both ... go away for ever.

Tactility brings all humans closer to that which is fleeting.

Bingo ... ... this is, and has been, our problem in this pattern foot so far. Unfortunately, we were warned not to go too crazy with the higher QPF/expectation. One of the reasons for that was definitely connected to the fast flow and compression stuff which I won't care to reiterate. But the kind of excitement driven lure behind why this has become a preoccupation in people ( to these modeling "tools" is a weird affliction ) it's not one very penetrable by reasoning, when the reasons call for constraint. Haha. like oh my god - right? Anyway, relative to this pattern's trend&behaviors, until we trade that for a newer paradigm, I would suggest the 13th and the 16th will probably be behaviorally similar. No guarantee, you may get lucky - but it's a fool's waste of time. It's more likely that 20 to 30% over assessment or whatever in QPF by the guidance. And humans will of course ignore the sound limitation arguments in lieu of the d-drip attic's stunning ability to remain vigil and operate within the framework of restraint ... and we'll go through this all over again. 5" here.

1/2” S 27F

23-26th

Yeah I referred to the 13th as a “trap game” event this morning page 79. It’s possible that the 16th is the more fantastic signal before Thursday and folks might not be paying attention. But the 13th is already thread able imho. Solid presentation by multiple ens means …and a Miller A is already on the operational maps. Frankly that one has a greater QPF potential due to source/origin than really any to date The means are too far inland with a primary for comfort but there’s time