Typhoon Tip

This is a fast moving nuisance at this point. Largely forgetting and only worth brief check-ins more for minoring icing and demographics concerns, otherwise trivial. Too little QPF moving entirely too fast, through a strange new twilight zone era of reality where cold air lodged in the interior doesn't matter, and particularly ... doesn't matter because everything has dependably been attenuating in the short term count-downs - most likely do to crushing negative interference by the base-line compression characteristic of the local hemisphere. On to the 16th's similar waste of time -

Yeah ... you get a micron of freezing rain and that's enough for someone to do a George Jetson on the walkway outside of town hall, in which case they're either sewing municipality, ... or ending up on FHV hoping to cash-in that way. Yup, one way or another, someone's gonna pay whenever an American's idiocy gets them to slip and fall on their ass

yeah, ...figured I give the idealize version. I suspect 1888 was a very high proficient capture from the accounts I've read. Man, I wish I was a millionaire so I could arrange for some god-line AI to recreate all the input into the initialization grids, and then fire off these pita flop super computers and turn 'em loose on that sumnabitch just for the ultimate d-drip experience. Maybe even make a short film out of it. I bet that would sell. Man that would be fantastic to see that. You could do a kind of interpolation repro of the grid and run the models as though, from 10 days out, 7 days out ...5...3 2 1 kerBOOOM

The best icing for pure aesthetic value is when you get ZR proficiently accreting while there is dense pixie dust snow particles. The ice that coats everything gets opaque gray... Man, it glows. Man it glows. Really cool looking .. Buuuut, then you hear that unmistakable sound of timber failure and know that the ability to toast toast is next - the aesthetic wonder takes a back seat.

I've watched this happen... The ice crusts the snow, you get 'micro avalanches' for lack of better phrase, with it tumbling off of the limbs when they start to sag. Probably is physically similar; snow underneath shears away when it can no longer support the weight on the top layer.

You must be new to a crowd that's inimically enslaved to the manic demon of the d-drip addiction .. hahaha No but I think what part of that is is just being jaded by what many perceive as bad luck and lack of material results for any investment at all, whether long term or short term. Will's really right about that - we've been stuck in a kind of fractal era where all results are lower than modeled. Altho, I think part of that is systemic bias in the guidance machinery ( all sources) in general, to be too amplified. But more than just that, there's no consistency in the models, either. Some of that is also human failing in having inappropriate expectations -sure. So folks are little reactionary because of all that. Panacea would be a reasonably well behaved big dawg, one allowing for "normal" model performance wiggles but by and large, handled on into short term whence it's no doubt. We've not seen that in many years frankly. All wiggles have been neg headers... and they win - eventually the audience is going to storm the citadel

we did it for 10 years for the most part, 1982 to 1991 so ... yeah, it can happen.

That's a failed capture in a missed phase scenario ... both of those are. Yeah, I understand that it looks like the SPV is bullying and shoving away, but this is really not what is taking place. That is happening because there is not enough ridging over NW Canada to force the SPV fragment S in time - there is some, just not enough. It's too bad too ( as is modeled... could change, sure, but probably won't ) because the hemisphere appears to be less compressed, and allowing for more of this kind of phasing in general. In some of these recent runs the models pick up on that about half way to more proficiency. Here's an example of very proficient subsume phase, where a chunck of SPV careens south and ingests a S/stream sperm to produce the 2nd coming -

again 2 days after that, too - almost carbon copy na na na-na na misses

tickling chode hairs but not enough for a reach-around

Yeah, I don't know if the operational GFS and GGEM ( maybe the blend? ) are going to lose this minor war over how the weekend's ordeal will profile in this case. There's too much cold in the local space, and the governing synoptics are well constrained by telecon suggestion. The Euro seems overly physically processed in overcoming these aspects. It appears to me that this is another candidate for a late Euro capitulation. It's going to be interesting to see if how that works going forward.

Ha ha... I just looked at the operational GFS from overnight... ( oh yeah -) I was so preoccupied with the ens means - that's actually both nastier, colder, and longer than its ensemble mean would suggest it should be.

Actually ... the 06z GEFs mean also was slightly more amped and thus, circumstantially a little warmer ... It's really like each ens system is responding to their own native bias tendencies. The GEFs will tend to conserve the compression and limit things because of that, where the Euro genetics carries this trait of fighting it more and upon working out how to do it, ends up deeper and farther N. Probably just take the mean of the two, and be thrilled by the saving notion that we're still fast afflicted so whatever transpires, ...it's not lasting long enough to matter very much.

Didn't see the 06z ... sure. But it's like 'wobbling' before collapse? It shows at least that it's not as stable. It's been an interesting year for model fights. Not sure why-for this is the case ... ( probably fast flow/compression blah blah ), but a lot of these 96 hour ens means looking divorced

I used to play that game when I was kid... Imagining Swiss Alps snow banks. I can remember being a teenager and my neighborhood was a short jaunt through shallow woods to a huge parking lot for a shopping plaza. After large enough snow events, the over night front end loaders banging, then the engines revving. Those piles grew immense, just like a the crags of mountain ranges as they lined the continental boundary of the parking lot. haha. Love for weather events and the affects it has on the environment, all natural events for that matter ... a lot of the fascination is what it does for the imagination.

Subtly the EPS mean looks like it's trying to capitulate some to the GEFs flatter/colder weekend scenario. It's not hugely obvious ... but the 00z didn't look quite as aggressively warm to me.

Sun was up prior to 7am here... I stood there looking at the red orb just as it crested the eastern horizon, also noting that it is up farther N along the horizon while earlier ( few minutes.. ) than just 10 days ago when I had a similar moment. I'm a dork. I noticed shit like that... what can I say. We are in the final chapters of winter ... The question becomes, how abruptly does the story end. No expectations in any given February, but I do think there is enough precedence for early warmth at a planetary consideration, to suspect that whatever stops doing this denial-enabling scenario ... just miiiiight transitions things faster than many think is possible. The other aspect, we've had these heat burst in Feb and Mar regardless of any leading long or short duration index this that and the other - so there's that too. Not chance of one of those given the present tapestry of guidance sources, no. But it's really a continuation of the above cold isolating theme. All telecon sources sans the -EPO... but, transition into a +PNA through the 25th. It's not a warm vibe there... SO, enabling or not ... whatever persistence led to the above January, seems to really still be partying on for the time being.

What interests me about the 20th emergence is that it's taking place in a modeled relaxation of the compression/speed anomalies. Short version, the relaxation is allowing more storm kinematics to be conserved at the smaller scales - which means better/more efficient/better timed field interactions --> storm production and power. ... Another way to look at it is the large scale flow slowing is less of a baked in negative interference. Long version, the -EPO is neutralized in the days leading, and though in theory this would stem our cold supply ... this is actually a well timed for the d(rotting) factor. I wouldn't want to wait on that much longer in an era that proves turning off cold supply modulates us on the + side of marginal quite quickly. Having a cryosphere throughout SE Canada and in our backyards is factorable in the environmental noise. The higher latitude on going -AO is then exerting a west motion through the lower Ferrel latitudes ( roughly along 55 to 70 N band). From 50 thousand feet, this conceptually sets up 40 N precarious for phasing. But, doing so with a relaxed gradient is far more likely to both succeed and produce a bigger event, then if this phasing potential is heightened while the flow along 40 N is compressed and fast. You can see these SPV fragments moving SW through lower Canada on the model cinemas, leading durig the 15th and the 19th, prior to the 16th but more importantly the 20th development. This is happening as the compression is easing and the flow is slowly opening up. The 20th is the less inhibited of the two, and that's why we see the the operational GFS with an unobstructed fully realizing S/stream bomb on the 06z, and the Euros multi contoured phased result in it's rendition for the 20th. The GGEM is also showing this cyclonic rotation of SPV parcels into the backside of S/stream S/W ... but it's holding onto the compression longer, which speeds the S/stream S/W movement through the field and that leads to more of the pacing/spatial temporal bipass issues. Who's worried about the GGEM at D 9 though.

yeah that’s interesting the icon’s doing something vaguely similar with this one and the weekend for that matter. it’s opening up these odd gaps in the qpf. it’s as tho the cloud layers were over seeded - like ‘hole punch’ phenomenon at synoptic scales

We are now moved out of the solar minimum and have begun the +solar transition season. Snow banks start getting eaten back on sunny days more readily. Car interiors may feel quite warm if not in the shade. Start planting toms from seeds and place them on the southern sills. ..etc.

Good - that means it's dislodged and mobile and probably an indicator of some sort of pattern modulation is underway - which at this point ... I'm ready to Etch 'N Sketch this sucker clean and go for some sort of new paradigm - if not new season... like next f'n year ... lol Anyway, not sure it is believable but there are massive changes in the telcon post the 20th. +EPO/+PNA ... with a completely neutralized AO. The hemisphere does in fact wash the table and sets up a pure +PNA mid latitude, with actually limited blocking at that time. Transitioning into that regime, from this may require some sort of inflection/correction event. H.A. leaps to mind. By the way...I've known this for days but there's no sense in bringing it up 2.5 weeks in advance ...etc

Heh... GFS can be juicier anyway, ... so long as this thing's moving at 55 mph it's trivial

Good question... Without being a red-eyed grad student ... the arm-chair supposition is that it is probably wave harmonics at very large scales. Think of it like "rogue" wave phenomenon in open ocean. Some times the waves all around a given wave, just happen to come into a constructive interference with that one wave, and they dump wave kinematic energy into that one wave. Sacrificing some of their own wave space power, the result is that one wave gets a massive boost, its crest seems to rear up out of nowhere. Sometimes as much 3 or even 4 X's the height of the surrounding tumult. As a fascinating aside... because the Gulf Stream orientation to the easterly trade wind- sfc stressing wave pattern, it is thought that a lot of the marine loses in the "Bermuda Triangle" might have actually fallen victim to rogue wave phenomenon.. The g-string current is upright against the E trade, or close to it... Anyway, that's all wave harmonics... The atmosphere also can do this.

here's a good example from 2004 to help elucidate this... In this case of now ( 2025 ) the -AO began to take place prior to the onset of the splitting vortex, nor was there this behavior noted in the vertical PV column leading ... SO yes to your question - it's a bottom up thing, but I wish folks would leave the SSW out of it because it just did not occur and whatever circumstance this is now that we are observing, it did not come about by the SSW model -

There's also no propagating ( down welling ...) SSW spanning the last 20+ days - this is an ordeal above that aroused via other wholesale mechanics.