Typhoon Tip

You talking about the 20th? -it hasn't liked that one yet ... at least not very much. Few members It's a caution flag. The pattern is still better for something like that oper. version to take place. Whether reality opts to actually doing so remains to be seen

No... that should actually read, "Mt Tolland State Asylum"

They held back the dissemination when they noticed a bug in the output that included too much frozen or freezing ptypes in SNE -

Yeah ... and it not just the AO. All the indexes are flagging a warm abrupt end to winter ... This is the agglomerate index mode on Mar 7: +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA Mmm, yeeeeah, that's a pretty quick end. I mean, maybe in another era, imagined or distantly in the past, the behaviors of the total atmosphere would argue for exceptions to the rule that implies - a big warm one. But nowadays ? Folks need to get real about where we are circumstantially at a global scale, and just how enabling this has been over the last 6 or so weeks Here, and Japan ... are the only two places on the entire planet, where civility reigns or doesn't, that has experienced a January that was "cold" relative to climate, and probably extending into these first 10 days of February. Where do folks think this winter would be without that very insular layout above? Experienced hobbyists and mets know why this was the case ( above) and it was related to the NE Pacific dominating the circulation mode during that 45+ days. Oscillating between -EPO cold loading into N/A and/or highly compressed low wave height +PNAs Should this index spread confirm, +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA , out there, doing so in that world above, at a time of year deep into the solar transition, during a La NIna footprint that correlates to warmer than normal springs... during CC... anything else we can pile on? I mean, geez

bump.... just because the pattern relevancy is still in play. But the model complexion out there remains, so far, a lower large scale height gradient +PNA

Here comes Spring a week later ?

Know why the posting frequency drops immediately after a "credible" model solution that looks like that ? Eyes are rollin' back in heads as the needle slips from the finger tips and tumbles to the floor -

So ... relaxation sweeps over the local hemisphere aft of the 17th... "possibly" setting the stage for more small scale wave space interaction and a different kind of storm production.

And that is only partial phase - but ... it's 60 or 70% proficiency combined with "model magnification" aspects ... who cares, enjoy your dose, people HAHA

Purely to help elucidate the idea ...

he just means colder solution ?

That model's actually been undeviating going back several cycles - unfortunately, this particular guidance is remarkably adept at abasing the primary tenet of a operational deterministic weather forecasting: continuity. The negative exposure of that is, it continuously forecasts things that don't actually happen. LOL We'll see

Yeah... I'm ( just in case ) opining about the seasonality we've sufferend and appear to continue to do so. But objectively ... there's plenty of clad conceptual reasons to assume that even the higher resolution model types will be too fast with significant cold air damming. There is an antecedent cold air mass in place, and .. there is a +PP situated N. That means the environment in the lateral sense is coupled already - most likely ...- so, if any lowering pressure and/or frontal tapestry attempts to lift toward that area, mass-conserve immediately generate an ageo wind response; it should negatively feedback on the temperature. I can remember being new to this part of the country, in interior eastern MA back whence dinosaurs roamed ... and so many forecasts for ZR to change to straight rain, with highs in the upper 30s, iced 'till the next dawn. Now, modeling is better, and much better resolution tech exposes the lowest level inhibition to warm intrusion better... However, there is still going to be delays there with a +PP situated N. I would not be surprise at all if even in interior SNE there's stubborn cold sag ...even if it's 32.4. May even cold seclude with WPC's crackerjack sfc analysis placing a warm front north of the region while that is happening. Up there? forget it... But again, the speed of the field and probably that correcting the system toward less ...blah blah, may not make the totality of the thing all that important anyway.

yeah i knew ridge more ideally placed. in fact, it doesn't even have to be fuckin' ideal. just give me a 70%er and we can work it out. man -

Agreed... it's a rarefying scenario of a relaxing height gradient, with a window of bankable cold, ... but the ridge not popping hurts realization of that potential.

Yeah ...this what I've been talking about the last several days... there's a signal for the flow to "relax" out there beween the 20th and 30th - I mean we call it relax but really we mean less gradient between ... roughly 60 N and 30N It's complex but in a larger simplified perspective, less compression --> lowering basal wind velocities --> more curved surfaces can then evolve --> better storm production. Nooormally, a relaxed form of a +PNA would lend to that. The problem is what you've already observed and just noted - and is why I'm pretty much done until something proves otherwise ( with winter...). It's something else I've also mentioned over the last week, this is not the first time the character of the hemisphere was modeled to step off the compression. In every time thus far, the models try and succeed in insidiously adding just these little soupcons of compression to every model cycle, sneaking in a way, when passing everything from D10 to D5 ... You may not notice in per cycle, but then you compare after the fact, and there's like 15 extra dms mashed between HB and Florida, with record breaking w-e continental air traffic speeds. It's not a mystery where that is coming from ... the EPO domain is not being well handled at longer leads. The models keep trying to dismantle it, then... a new nadir in the index tends to correct that D7 range. EPO tanks, cold load, gradient goes ^, we be fucked. And the nasty part of that kind of hidden abuse ( haha ), one would typically think of a -EPO as, 'oh, great - cold source' This brings us back to my own observation that in order to be cold enough, inimically has become a circumstance of too much compression. It seems ever more evidenced that to get a S/W conserving pattern amid a cold enough one is a rarefying scenario.

See ...not to come off holier than thou but I let people be negative. For one, I don't wanna be a hypocrite if/when my own humanism needs a moment for snarky skepticism and cynical "truth" - if not just for fun in doing so... But one thing that always comes to mind for me is sort of abstract philosophy. The constant optimism during a clear empirical data that demonstrates an objective reality that your strapped in hell to a shit stuffing machine ... comes off as no different than gaslighting oneself - and expecting others to jump on your party bus is kind of like manipulating the scenario to elide the reality of eating the shit. I don't want to disengage from reality that way. Because either self, or someone else, spinning stench as smelling like a rose, is disconnecting. There's nothing wrong, and in fact...one could argue it is actually mentally healthier to be aware and objectively truthful about the shit being eaten - this can go on into a lot of existentialism and debating the value of life stuff but I'll defer. In the end, the delusion actually doesn't work. You deal with the shit, now, in reality, and work it out. You don't hide behind tactical euphemistic takes that are ... well, full of shit.

There may be more than one that is similar, those malfunctions blithely body hucking ... heh. The one that youtube search has is different from my memory but... I don't exactly go looking for them either.

Yeah, I know what you mean about the 'other' I happen to think motorcycles are a lot of fun. I wish I had more balls ... but, I once happened upon the aftermath of a motorcycle-involved accident down where 62 intersects Starrow Drive. The bike was charged to dark charcoal gray, as it wrapped around the base of a utility pole. Yellow tape cordoned off... Just about ever bike rider I've talked to had at one time or the other laid their bike down, and every time it was because some other driver in an SUV somehow didn't see this or that and cut them off too fast this that or the other thing... I kind of live my life as much as possible by the motto of, 'I will not die in a parachute accident, because I will never go sky diving' I try to recognize what I call 'helicopter moments', and avoid getting into the proverbial helicopter - that's a metaphore mind you. The decades between Buddy Holly and Coby Briant.

This is shamefully hilarious .. but did you ever see that meme of that chair lift malfunction? The stage is set ... you see on the left, a chair lift mechanized turn-style tower. On the right, a pile of squirming arms and legs and ski poles and skies sticking out, struggling to unpile themselves as each addition person swung around the 'style at accelerating g-forces and being thrown into the pile. It's quite possibly a partial indictment of ethical intelligence to laugh at such a sight. Usually, I cringe at this sort of thing, but for some reason the thought of these people's mindset for the funnest day or their lives ending up in a contorting messed up state of existential fear that they actually paid to be a part of ? I don't know - so long as no one actually did die or end up permanently afflicted allows for the irony to fade to some sort of morbid humor

Mere "injuries" spins it - one is not as likely to end up paralyzed by a twisted ankle in soccer or basketball. Football is largely coming around to the dangers of CTE and starting safer practice with better helmet and pad tech at younger ages. In fact, my buddies with kids have them in touch football leagues and will send them to contact in high school once they are older and bit more controlled - it's becoming more and more the new engagement. But gravity and a slope, with a very low coefficient of friction, are universally physical forces that you are allowing the errant - or more likely to be so... - vector of a child's capacity for decision making dictate where to be in space and time, while at velocity. To each his or her own, but meh contains an elided risk. Also, bear in mind that hate reality and am impugning everything today. LOL

I may be a nerve nelly but I wouldn't bother with kid kids. i've heard too many stories of taking 10 year olds on family ski trips and kid has a 35 mph fight with a chair lift stanchion and of course loses ...Cut to, 10 years later, and their wheeling the 20 year old instead of walking the 20 year old down the graduation ramp.

easily ... what's going on around the local hemisphere at the time? Without knowing this is meaningless - maybe useful to the imagination, sure. It needs the surrounding context, though, within which it is entirely guided by. That could be receding SE for example, because of a retrograde -NAO ... take your pick. It could be dying and was once even stronger - if it were -d() that means it's vertically stacked and not producing much... etc just sayn'

I can only say that at this point, I am done. There may be something out there between the 20th and the 30th ...and frankly, though the EPO is largely neutered by then, the PNA is surging ... so yeah. But I don't care. Fuggit! I'm hoping the fact that every index there is, being a neutral -warm heading into March thereafter, actually has legs. Because doing so in a La Nina ( whether we are coupled notwithstanding ...) climo, if/when the EPO remains flat or positive, probably means another shock and awe run or two at early 80 in a general month that flips pretty quickly to the much more likely longer termed probability for above normal.

This is a fast moving nuisance at this point. Largely forgetting and only worth brief check-ins more for minoring icing and demographics concerns, otherwise trivial. Too little QPF moving entirely too fast, through a strange new twilight zone era of reality where cold air lodged in the interior doesn't matter, and particularly ... doesn't matter because everything has dependably been attenuating in the short term count-downs - most likely do to crushing negative interference by the base-line compression characteristic of the local hemisphere. On to the 16th's similar waste of time -