Typhoon Tip

Aw cheer up ... after all "nobody knows"

Ha, that had occurred to me, m'man. However, I'm very cautiously optimistic that won't happen "as much" ... because the longer lead projections of the EPO are nominal through mid March actually. ( as in aside, the spread et al is significantly warmer local hemisphere by the Ides... but who knows - ) But - I think you touched on it earlier? - there is a +PNA ballooning between the 20th and the end of the month, this time, sans the -EPO cold hammer. It may not be a bad thing for a window of opportunity in this regime, because the flow character, being less like an elephants giant ass mashing a trampoline down, allows for more local-scale curvature to actually take place in the proverbial meshing of the trampoline...

You got the basic idea with the wave frequency aspects. The western ridge needs to probe higher in latitude, post the eject east across the continent with the Pacific goodies. That would direct the subsuming SPV more S and also, the S/Stream S/W would get a constructive interference feed-back on amplitude, and because of having more N-S total construct, ...the field necessarily slows down. etc.. But, the -d(gradient) is just to describe the back ground state of compression as alleviating some, while all that is happening. There's a kind of a disconnect - though they are related. The lowering gradient allows for frequency gains, but so far... the models are not doing that. The gradient seems to slack off a little while the frequencies stay the same. So these solutions are varying between partial and no phasing in a cosmic prick tease... haha. j/k there

I rewrote that.. but yeah, this is part of it. But it precipitates out the "molly coddling" aspect. People don't need to learn if they are provided for, and the IR and the generations since, are in a state of diminishing returns. This is part of the Fermi Paradox explanation imho, btw. As an aside, species discover adequate provisions and enhance survival, Darwinism mechanics no longer require evolution to improve, de-evolution takes over. I've referred to this in the past as the catch-22 of advancement.

It's not the cause... The issue is that the targeted audience is no longer equipped to defend their perspectives from the penetration of deception - manipulation follows. There's a reason why psychological science has recently papered a result of mass IQ's being some 20 points lower than early 20th Century. They believe weird shit back then... but that was by virtue of where humanity was in history. They knew how to use their heads, with the limited information they were exposed to, more objectively.

Heh... doesn't even just seem anymore like this, it's really true. Any one of these systems spanning the last 6 weeks of this torturing winter, in this range, whence we are in a state of 'so long as X doesn't happen' X happens. 1::1 correlation on that since Christmas

I know ...was getting mixed up this morning which storm was being covered where. HA.

Interesting .. we got zero ageostrophic llv restoring in this set up, while there is a 1030+ polar high N of Maine. Needed more meso low closure I suppose... I was waiting on a tuck response but it seems that won't happen in this case. That said, even if that happened, it's 34 or 35 as far N as Manchester NH. we wouldn't be draining freezing DPs into the quagmire, anyway. What a disgusting gloppy cold wet silvery piece of shit state of affairs it is out there. Just under 2" of snow that was ZR on top this dawn, has turned into a gray slab 1" thick of pure 7-11 slushy. That stuff out in the yards and fields and so forth is going to be quick-crete when we dip later tonight.

Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

oh shit... put that in the wrong thread. sorry bro - i'll move it

Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

identical to here. 1.5" currently 32 on the button with limping -ZR ... accretion is inefficient. I'm waiting on a tuck, not to save this situation but... we have this deal on the 16th that may also offer a tuck opportunity. that system is like this one, only more strength and a little south. So sort of a bush test - unless the 16th does the CMC version in which case we CCB with sleet. zomb

Jesus one way or another you’re gonna get your drama dose out of this huh?

No, Kevin, the run is showing .6 to .7” accretion and not as much over lower elevations. That interpretation just means that there’s some members that have more but that also means there’s are members that have less. But people seem to lean on the idea of some members being more and thinking that it’s some kind of ominous implication, but that’s never been true.

Like I said to Kevin earlier … I don’t have an issue reaching low warning ice … Just the “big ice” d-drip rocks getting off oh boy oh boy should be toned down.

No one is getting 3” of liq equiv

The speed of the storm should keep the ice totals down… Doesn’t seem like people are listening to that. It seems like people are ignoring this statement. Even that product is barely warning ice. Needs to be a half inch if we make it we make it but we’re not talking about a crippling thing

It’ll be colder than the Euro

Completely out of line for this sub-forum to talk politics but this isn't really a political distinction. It's an observation of a stagnation and more apropos to say, deterioration, of both the bulk ethical/moral, as well as functional intelligence, at the scale of whole society. The populace has been exposed. The bulk of the people are literally inept to the point where false media reliance became substantive. And by that ...conned into elevating this kakistocrasy to realization. Neither a healthy sense of right and wrong, nor any 'math' existed enough in their minds to have prevented this. In a way, don't blame them. Blame the circumstantial multi-generational mollycoddling by the relative advantages of Industrialized living - there's no sense of morality to those that consider matters as entitlement and presumption of rights. There is a disconnect from understanding that was earned by sacrifices in the history of the world ... and not innately provided as some kind of given right. They may have hailed from a given political distinction, but no... this wasn't politics. It was idiocy run amok unchecked, and unbalanced, winning, purely by huge numbers that were made to be that way because of that reciprocating effect of diminishing intelligentsia. Remember this. History will remember this era as "The Great Dumbing" ... I interact with rural Massachusetts and Michigan in my own personal experiences; literally lack the objective filters to not be assuaged by the Machiavellian tactics, perpetrated as righteousness, by certain mass media organizations and their network of social media stratagem, which so affectingly reached what was really a socially engineered constituency.

Trend is of monster importance for the weekend... I've been saying all day that this was suspiciously too far W with all these canonical arguments that are valid for this scenario. If there's a trend to go SE at all, it is like "more" important than the typical trend - if that makes any sense ..

not sure "big" ... it would be marginal warning ice amts do to the fast speed of the system. It will also depend how heavy it comes down and just how cold it is too. It's a delicate thing that goes on in the thermal balancing between kinetic energy from falling heavy rain, vs dry DP feed, vs latent heat of phase change. There's a tug of war there. The best accretion rate I've ever seen was a 19 F moderate rain with almost not pellets, which is bizarre and rare for that cold of a temperature to be clean rain. Must have been pretty warm at cloud height... But being the dweeb that I am, I was studying the droplets as they impacted the car windows and there was pretty much zero loss. Every drop froze almost instantly. 6 hours later it was 33 with just plain drizzle and lots of dripping. Ice "storms" need to have the 3 aspects above in a stasis over a longer period... the bigger events are typically 24 hours with another 2 days of intermittent continuance.

that cold tuck was on the 12z run big time... It actually sloshed back enough to ZR for an additional .1 or .2 accretion in the interior NW too

this model has not deviate on that event now for 2 day's worth of cycles.

these dry NAM solutions ... i mean yeah the model generally isn't very intelligent, but just in principle it's like it dances around genius.

Yeah... I only "like" the 20th because as I've been pointing out using a lot of tl;dr's and some time wasting annotations ... the flow is relaxing while entering a +PNA. However, as I've also pointed out... this is not the first time this last 45+ days I've seen the guidance aggregate attempt this lessening compression - but what happens is an insidiously slow adding of gradient in time, such that we're not aware ...we just end up sped up to hell and back in the same quagmire. Back to earth re the 17th ... it's a little frustrating because there are canonical reasons to argue that track being farther S-E... Not even a ton, but just not so enraged like the Euro. I also noticed the 12z GFS is outright modeling a nasty tuck early Monday. I still think we have a lot of low level model error potential from this range, with that warm intrusion - all cynicism and snark aside.