Typhoon Tip

It's a little bit of a negative interference offset to this system's total potential. Nevertheless, in so far as the 00z GFS, that solution was not so dismantled that it could not put out a big dawg solution. It just shows it is within the realm of possibility. But this system's ultimate fate is still bit up in the air ( pun hopefully annoying ...) as far as timing these stream mechanics.

The 20th is a real storm problem. It's going to be on the map; the uncertainty isn't whether a storm is real, the sensitivity as far as I'm observing ( fwiw...) is tightly connected to phase proficiency. Those guidance that suggest more of it, end up more meaningfully impacting/W solutions. It's really attempting a subsume phase type ( 1978 is a spectacular course work on what that cinema looks like - not saying so as an analog in this case ), but there's still a bit of compression and speed bias lingering - mainly because the western heights are not canonically extending polarward enough. It's poorly constructed and the stream lines are also partially fractured ...these constructs signal vague L/W support for this event over the eastern mid latitudes. Such that the wave spacing is being lengthened - you can see it how a partial phase in these guidance is then causing the SPV (N/stream vortex part) to spaghettify toward the E... It's like it grabs the S/stream and then gets it's arms ripped off ...

the Euro telecon correlations, when then adding attribution ... is a 70+ F implication by and post Mar 10 the GFS would be too... but it has a subtle sag in the EPO around the 3rd to the 7th... it's not clear if that is really going to be another NE Pac bully or if it fades - we're getting into extended ranges by then that obviously present typically lower confidence. Other than that one concern, everything else from the GEFs derivates might also imply 70+ F by Mar 10. just sayn' not forecasting. it is what it is. But, we have to get through a less compressed, +PNA between the 20th and the end of the month, first... Obviously we have this one on the 20th, which too much time is being spent on individual model's butt bonings and not enough on the fact that the trend was enormous. Then the 25th has been all or nothing. Either the given model has a 970 juggernaut, or it's partly sunny on the next run. So we'll see if that one has legs. Both are a part of a slowly relaxing compression, whilst the PNA flips mode from neg to positive. If/when one emerges more likely with the 25th, that one has the most torpid background and thus slower moving/time to develop "in time" plausibility in my mind. The 20th is a real storm problem. It's going to be on the map; the uncertainty isn't whether a storm is real, the sensitivity as far as I'm observing ( fwiw...) is tightly connected to phase proficiency. Those guidance that suggest more of it, end up more meaningfully impacting/W solutions. It's really attempting a subsume phase type ( 1978 is a spectacular course work on what that cinema looks like - not saying so as an analog in this case ), but there's still a bit of compression and speed bias lingering - mainly because the western heights are not canonical. The wave spacing is being lengthened - you can see it how a partial phase in these guidance is then causing the SPV (N/stream vortex part) to spaghettify toward the E... It's like it grabs the S/stream and then gets it's arms ripped off ...

00z UKMET had 9 hours of light to moderate snow NoP FWIW.

UKMET was interesting

Or if he wants to focus on the low, it’s steadily getting deeper every run the last three cycles, too

It’s more amped it’s not a disaster;it’s moving too fast

There’s no way for the primary to go into Canada. That’s figuratively against the northwest wall

I think that’s a different phenomenon than dry slotting It looks like it’s abandoning the warm advection … so it lifts away from the area, but the surface front still packed south in Connecticut, Rhode Island More like a lull on the polar side of that boundary when that happens. Then the triple point starts moving into Southwest zones and it re-blossoms.

At 7am Sun it’s 48F at 900mb over Logan and 33 at the sfc

I explained all this to him last night at this time, ad nauseam … … just like others have at multiple other times spanning many years. Forget it! He’s not going to get it. He’s never going to get it. His fucking cats could explain it to him by now - it’s not going to penetrate

Yeah ... not sure if everyone knows just how thin the margin of error is on this thing from a range of a 174 hours... - not that the AI version is any kind of oracle. The few times ( not many ) I've looked I wasn't very impressed. That, btw, is the perfect subsume. That may even be more proficient than Mr king 1978

Well ...the circuitry in mind is not the act of signing FA's ... it's that they'll help manufacture Ws - that's when it happens. Bottom line, they were not doing it with whatever the f model that was they were doing the last 3 years. This signing is different in terms of their scouting behavior - I'm more interested in if we're turning the corner from asshole org

I care even less man - the last couple years have been so embarrassing. Get some bodies in there that can hit the f'ers and let's see where it goes. You have to land some over priced free agents and put some W's up there, and that attracts meatier prospects. I mean they put them selves up against ugly wall with inept and/or penny pinching bullshit and their fans stopped going to games it got so bad.

speaking of which ... they picked up a right handed bat with a career Fenway average of 375 after 21 games played there. maybe they're really trying to actually build a f'n roster rather than gaslighting their fan constituency -

by all means, .... give it a try

For winter enthusiasts ..it'd be nice if the dungeon master were to fall asleep on one and let it over-perform, then we wake up on Sunday morning to a fully loaded 20th

we may also get some partial sun in an hour

Heh...this is such a wiener schnitzel run of the eps mean... Some of those impressive western members must have stalled, too... because they just get out of control and haven't moved much in the 6 hours

oh, shit - man ...been doing that all day. That supposed to be in the PD thread... er, I think? The one for the 17th ... wtf does PD mean. President's Day that's not a "holiday weekend" c'mon man

Man these western members are something else -

Sick CAD signal for the weekend

Fwiw - the spread's definitely on the western side of the envelope here... It's also one of those deals where the members that are west, some are exceptionally deep - particularly for 180 hours

Those positive 500 mb anomalies, whether well described by the curved isohypses or not ... may provide enough impetus to to force the SPV S-SE. I'm just noting - personally - that the real reason the operational run was too late, was because this run lacks the S/Stream potency early enough in the dynamic stream interaction. The 500 mb cinema shows a multi contouring 500 mb surface is evolving with very potent DPVA already prior reaching the longitude of the NJ coast, yet... it's only got a paltry 1000 mb low passing toward the BM at that time ( 174-180 )... That is suspiciously underdone given that it's already bombing at mid levels. That should have been captured by then and gone bananas, but the problem is... the S/Stream being so weak it's not integrating those kinematics to the lower levels in time. It's trying to subsume and it can't find the it -

it's all good man