Typhoon Tip

500mb looks better on the GFS fwiw not sure about the sfc but the n/stream’s more consolidated with potent DPVA Too soon to bail on this. It’s close to being significant

So it looks like KBOX expanded the warning south?

EPS trended E by some 100 mi. Also shrank the spread a little while jumping in intensity, too yeah yeah D5.5 but that's cautionary There are objective arguments to go lower: - Flow's a little less compressed, granted ... but is still not reflected in the S/W translation speed (the speed in which the entire wave structure propagates thru the medium ). - That is likely related to the lack of western ridge construct to improve the frequency of the L/W. That is the background by which the S/W would be conducted to a slower more curved trajectory. That would enhance phasing, sooner... The 12z Euro is ripping the whole bag open - forget the sfc evolution, folks. Watch the 500 mb. You can see the stressed interaction with the S/stream partially absorbed then ripping out down wind and busting up the raviolli. The previous Euro runs were not doing this, which may have been suspicious. I don't know. The ICON/UKMET are improved ... not sure with their performance record if that's helping. That all said, just a little slowing would bring the Euro's prior idea back to the table.

Me old standard NAM FOUS from 18z was tick colder. The triangulation method implied 5 or 6" of snow along Rt 2 west of 95 on on out, then a mix of IP and ZR to some .3" accretion before ending, but could be higher ice if less IP

That's been my metric all along. This is far superior as a winter to me, than any since few years back. Continuous snow pack to me doesn't raise or lowered any significance to it, just because it isn't deep. Now... if we want to get into the affects of having left a lot on the table - that's an expansion into an intangible that ... meh, just doesn't bother me personally. The chances were real. We had real chances.. we've had continuous snow pack because of them now onto 5 weeks. I have contiguous white in all directions bermed off by snow banks for a long while now; yet keep reading how bad it all is and I'm sorta not really agreeing there.

So the 162 hr is ominous ... I rarely use that adjective as I hate the hyperbole grabbing when describing this stuff, but having members be as low as the upper 950s west of the BM, look at it this way. there was poorer phasing on previous cycles, when the spread was less. Now that we have better phasing at least suggested as possible, if not quite possible, we see the western spread balloon further out with some exceptionally deep members. I don't believe the two aspects are divorced in this. So, the implication of a 965 mb low W of the BM, ( averaging 957 to 972) would be a tree leaning white out over eastern SE NH/E MA and RI

In fact... that is a rather large spread uncertainty there. There's over 20 members along the W-NW arc...It's almost puzzling why the mean PP is situated as far out there as it is given all that tension.

00z 168 vs 12z 156, left to right respectively ...

EPS mean is a tad deeper ( 3 or so mb...) this 12z cycle... Also presenting there are more members on the western envelope suggesting there may yet be corrections toward the NW in general - that's what that metric is used for..etc.

agree - and I'm trying to impress that trend is really more important at this range - including the ensemble mean in that isn't a bad idea.

Meh, the D6.5 position(s) thru that period are an incremental improvement in track closeness enough to justify the trend continues. The total blend of all guidance now, compared to 24 hours ago, is already a worldly different

12z UKMET looks like 3" of snow followed by a 1/2" of sleet mixed with .3" of accretion making whatever clings like glued sand

It does but it's less consolidated with the QPF layout ... It's also more nucleated with the low - I don't like that. I've seen this modeled behavior in the past, where it starts hinting at disassociating things and then the next run you realize why. It was because it was trying to fuck the whole thing up and blow it away on the previous run, but it just failed to be bad. LOL

Our much better variant of the +PNA circulation mode nicely showing up in this 12z GFS for the 22nd - 28th. Not so worried about the interference pattern embedded within from this range; it's more likely that one or two of these are real in lieu of this shit hits the fan look

24 hours since yesterday has definitely demonstrated more attempts in the better marriage side from what I'm observing. For the record, I don't ultimately like this set up - there's just not enough canonical western flow aspects over western N/A. Thus, this is and will remain prone to errors.

meanwhile... GFS of course steps off

Meeting at work... just catching up but the 12z CMC is much more proficient phase and capture. Large impacter for eastern zones... perhaps as far west as EEN-HFD Trends trends trends ...

trend continues...

yeah, slightly better phasing in the total manifold of that solution, compared to the 00z. again, this system's yes or no is probably something like 90% related to how proficiently the phasing ultimately is... less and that S/stream doesn't have a prayer at getting up here... but, a better/deeper N/stream entanglement foists it N and then there's a party that leads to our baby.

Ah I think it would be interesting to test these assumptions, either way. My personal hunch is that a bulk density on a scatter plot of total snow ( perhaps using the linear average of HFD/PVD/ORH/BOS for each point analysis), would reveal that 6 to 9" should be the more typical climatology. Yes, there are 12" events, but they may be proven rarer compared to a real analysis. Interesting.... we've never down that in here. But, "in here" isn't science as much as it's model induced, dopamine drug addiction hahaha so go figure -

Why does it have to be "2'+" ? "Massive snow producer" granted that's subjective but N of 12" is massive for our climate. What's the interquartile density of snow-related storm totals? A regional foot average is probably on the rarer side compared to where the bulk is in that scatter plot. Wherever the bulk average of all snow events is, that's the cut off for massive consideration? At least in my mind. I know in 1977-1978 winter there were a couple of Miller As in late Dec thru early Jan. One of them, I want to say it was 19.1" fell at Logan and set the 24-hour records for snowfall at that location. A record that would be broken several weeks later by the Feb 5-7 juggernaut of course - which wasn't a Miller A... BUT, there was a Miller A wave that was technically captured in that, but it was weak and was pulled N while E of the Va Capes. Anyway, I'm losing track of the purpose of this conversation. Ha. I was just pointing out that it's not really a very good Miller A comparison, when there is this N/stream capture thing going on. The Miller A model doesn't contain that, which is a entirely instrumental in this case for getting an event here.

That's probably going be about what this does. Amts of whatever and who gets what, notwithstanding...

jesus Looking at the NAM cinema you can clearly tell this is coming down to the speed of the troposphere hugely outpacing the frictional drag/cold damming in that fight. By the time the cold would ever work out our area, this things wrapped up already in the Maritimes it's moving so fast. Probably not easy to visualize but relative to just these NAM runs, if the total troposphere were slower, we probably would have just had an easier Lakes cutter with less desire to start a thread - ha

both aspects he just stated can be concurrently true

I disagree a little ... a little - let's not blow tops off volcano cones here.. This is a different species than a pure Miller A. The S/stream does actively trigger a wave down S... but a Miller A model's total manifold does not have an SPV N/stream timed scenario of capturing and subsuming. That is different than a Miller A in the purer sense - thus I don't believe the correlations is entirely clad. Also, there are Miller A's in history that were massive snow producers. It may be rarer, but they have occurred. I've always been a little bit leery of relying on that idea.