Typhoon Tip

so ... because of that, the low actually doesn't deepen very much beyond that 120 period ... stuff to iron still ...

Oh that's interesting... okay, little tamer thereafter... It appears the b-c axis may be disconnected from this deep layer evolution. Probably too far E frankly... mm, I think that recovers faster with the native g-string and all that. It's just fuzzy in the model at this range - probably.

wow...this is going to be a long duration nor'easter with probably upper tier impact scenarios in that solution... it's only 120 hrs and already moderate to hvy snow is exploded from DCA BOS and the lows about to get captured still ... may be a season definer ... as is, in this depiction, it would be for the DCA-PHL crew

heh, actually ends up deeper by a couple dm ( 500 mb hgts) when it closes off there ...120 or so hrs.

maybe coming in slightly less amped this run... but still a deep sharp trough

Also useful to point out that the bulging into Manitoba is really critical there. That axial location near Frisco is traditionally too far west, but the idiosyncrasy of that arm rotating S on the heals of the 'Lakes trough is completing the wave space's couplet ...which transitively is favorable for maintaining amplitude that far E of the "real" ridge axis. Synoptic interpretation is a lot harder than folks realize. Just seeing where ridges and troughs are isn't the half of it.

UKMET trended favorably ... It's still not getting it done, but its trough cinema is rotating neutral with an attempt at neg as it curls through our longitude. 00z had the entire scope of it positive and pancaked, with nada. It seems with all this weight (multi source and amp) we have signal here for improvement - probably goes without saying... but, I'd still caution that we need to get some next-cycle continuity.

This snapshot of the EPS mean from Pivotal ... heh... you know, not only is this a huge improvement in the signal, there are members that are actually west of the Del Marva to Logan climatology. that would be f'n hilarious, huh

oh gees. i can't. i'm cooking. like up to my elbows in the kicchen. i'll have to take a break here in a minute

just a little ob. the 12z ICON didn't get it done, however...was a massive correction west with the cyclogenic aspects. huge for that one run cycle. can't correct even half that much more over else there'll be hell to pay

yeah, that's a 'spread alarm' actually. that's a metaphorical equivalent of the model mean going, "oh, wait a sec, tho -"

Yeah, and then looking at the next series in the cinema as the run's rolling out, it's definitely the morphology of the 2nd wave that is backing off the negative interference, and allowing the 1st in the series to do it's thing... The GFS has chosen. Ha...let's see if it changes it's mind in the future

So ...this is the 170 hour position from two nights ago, oper. GFS, on the left. On the right is 12z for that same time 36 to 48 hours worth of runs later.... You can see the morphology in the total handling of each ball in the nut sack of this pattern. This latter run shows the 2nd wave is in fact less coherent ...schism into a couple of more minoring wave spaces, while also, the 1st wave is more potent, and, further along downs stream. These are perhaps subtle but are crucial differences nonetheless. That latter of the two runs is allowing the lead to conserve more in totality and thus is operating more cyclogensis/capable of doing so ..etc. This could be the capitulation ( beginning ) toward one of these areas becoming dominant. Too early to tell... could all be a red herring too

alright.. i'll just add this much quickly. 24 hours from now, the dark circle represents the ballast of the wave space ultimately delivering ...whatever is destined to take place along and off the EC ..circa 15/16. That has to be relayed out of the assimilated sounding domain ( unless that tech state has changed...), then ...it has to interact and/if integrate with Canadian pass-by phasing ... These recent GFS runs are handsome with all that relay - which unfortunately has a lot of 'correct-ability' potential to it. It could be right. or it could be wrong. Particularly, the 2nd wave in that headache ... that can still modulate to less (more ) interference - so there's that too

The ICON gets to about 132 hours give or take ...then it loses support from the governing local hemispheric ongoing behavior, that forces the trough to open back up again... taking the legs out form under cyclogenesis welcome to a big exercise in large scale destructive wave mechanics - this appears to have been a two-balls-in-the-nut-sack pattern all along. I've been waiting for that 2nd wave to begin yielding to the first - or vice versa - for days, but if anything, the ensembles are getting even more overbearingly contentious - it's like the only storm is a contest to see which one manages the most entropy out of incalculable potential from this whole mid month. wow ... it's almost comical. Anyway, gloom humor aside ...it's not a dead potential. I'm just getting issue exhaustion in explaining why - time to put up or shut up. It's always about what needs to go right - things that are plausible. Figuring out what part of that spectrum of plausibility actually has likeliness to to happen is artful

meh... leaving something on the table when - our options have been: blame it all on something other than the inevitability and unstoppable force of CC, such that we do not commit the sin of denialism as weather-related/respecting mindful folk, while in fact preventing us from accepting; - or, getting a storm once in a while that enables us to continue along this approach to reality ... enjoy ! (LOL... big dose of dark sarcasm there - but a large amount of humor has an "air" of truth to it )

I wonder why that is ...

I'm sure this has been covered over these ensuing couple three pages I've yet to catch up on ( lol ) but frankly? I haven't seen anything over night ...save 'maybe' the 00z ICON that looks very similar or in support of that near O.D. dopa run by the GFS. hahaha - glad everybody thought it was suss right out the gates.

they're learning

Heh … Finally got to see that 18 ZGFS That’s quite a CCB head it backs in there on the 15th/16th one

yeah...now the GFS is throwing the 22nd at us ... get the f out here with that. i think we've covered just about every date between the 14th and 25th at this point... none of this shit can be trusted - not even standard amount for this range, either. Particularly bad with continuity.

Those wave spaces are competing with one another. Remove either, boom. Not sure one or the other won't become dominant over the days to come - which one? no idea. But should that not happen, it won't be impossible the we either miss both, or end up with an event that's hardly worth a thread. By the way bro, ignore it

If next week fails to deliver, this winter can go f itself. another on an ass heap of 'no, this winter's going to be much better' history lol

Euro's all over the place not saying your wrong or even off ...but we're analyzing shitness from where i'm sitting, this one run appears to be favoring the 2nd wave in that broadly interfering headache, while simultaneously speeding up the 2nd wave... it was the 19th and 20th last night. yikes