Typhoon Tip

I'm planning on the 20% reduction of amplitude that seems to always be a necessary correction in the mid range to pull us back just over the tolerability threshold. It looks like a fropa with the vorticity smearing out N of us. there's are also some reasoning related to GFS specific biases to erode warm heights too much out in time but... it's all negotiable.

Yeah Norway.

frost here sat says overcast which will retard recovery today ..but it won't be 33 tonight. tomorrow begins a period where cloud depending, the afternoons could be more consistently making a run at 70 for 3 or so days. i noticed the 80s on saturday really triggered our green up process. we were budding before, but now all sugar and red maples are flowered well out, and even the oaks are bud swelling. it'll be interesting to compare at the end of the week.

Wind's actually slacked a bit here as we're approaching mid day... Very hot sun, and temperatures tickling 60, it's not near as bad as the gradient pinched CAA impression of the charts would have one think. At a glance that looked like 48 - guess it helps to actually look at the sounding, huh. ha. D-slope for the the win... It's every bit as amazing as yesterday imo, just at the other end of the temperature range. Yesterday made 84 here... 2 more and it would have been too much. 62 here with dying wind, about the purest air available to the planet, under searing sun... man, take this weekend as an embarrassing win of April and call it a day. Holiday weekend no less.... Let's just hope we don't pay for it on the 4th of July like 2020

yup … thunderstorms dying as they move east … punchin the clock. season wasting no time bum pounding convection enthusiast right out of the gates

84

might yet do it down here with the sudden erosion. Temp just popped 80

it's weird... sky bust, then ..temperatures busting warm relative to the sky bust - it's busting in both directions. 77

yeah ...not impressed with this at all. i was afraid of this. we'll see how it plays out. sometimes these morning contamination looks erode back as the sun works, but seeing the guidance with waves of 700, 400, 300 mb > 60% doesn't looks like a scenario that exactly over achieves relative to what it could be. but we've suffered bottom dweller saturday's back to back recently so this is panacea by comparison. no complaints.

There it is ... the big 4 0 29 to 69 ... making a bid at 72

come to think of it...are there flag advisories

I can too - this is fake warmth. The DPs are a balmy 12 F ...some 20, but between that range. Saturate this column and we'd be cat pawing

31 deg temperature rise already ... this may be the diurnal delta prize winner day. 29 was the low currently 60 at 11 am.

NAM profiles ( 12z ) would support mid 80s if no sun obstruction... There may be some issues with mid deck cloud debris looking at the typical ceiling level RHs. MET's 80 now at BDL and ASH.

That sun is a rotisserie lamp out there.

Uhh maybe … let’s not forget the world we live in. Don’t be fooled by a persistent pattern. When this cold bias (relative to said world) leaves things can turn around really fast. Happens a lot when it’s warm in the fall people start going uh oh. “I have a feeling this winter’s are gonna be more back loaded.” Sometimes even sounding official like I’m looking at some indicators…

Heh... short lived! If the NAM is right that is... tomorrow has that late summer sun annihilating the chilly air mass written all over it. Could see that being upper 50s with wind going light under late summer intensity sun ... about a 10 out of 10 on the naper scale. Temps don't fall off tomorrow night much ... at least toward the coast. I suspect we'll still see some decoupling in the interrior and some over achieving frost, but Friday is featuring nearly identical profiles to what just occurred here on Monday, whence T drove above machine and ended up 68 to 72 throughout the area. Saturday may touch 80. Even the NAM's 2-meters are 75+ and it's really, really difficult to get this particular model that warm at this time of year - have they even flipped the seasonal switch on that tool? Chris ( Maine's office ) once told me that the NAM does have seasonal dependent algorithms. Brian might know...whatever... this cold is mainly today and tonight.

Is that what your wife calls them ? haha

yeah, other guidance have been hinting at slowing the pattern, too That ridge has been burgeoning at small increments across subsequent runs - ensemble means, too. If anything the surface front looks too far S-E for the mid levels at this point. We'll see

yeah... reminds me. I'm not a big fan of the stein meme stuff and tend to roll-eyes or just scroll very quickly past so that I don't have to even expend the energy rolling eyes I hate it so much. I just find it to be 'manufacturing outrage," a behavior common to the social media - indirectly related to the social mechanics in how/why society as a whole found itself in a state of "making America great again". Stimulation junkies. That's what the pack population density is now. Knee jerk judgements for recreational outrage... basically, a melt down at civility ( hopefully not leading inexorably to "biblical") scales. Fear takes over. People contract. Progressive ideologies only contributes ... Populism results. That makes them prone to fascism, because a fascinating failing of human beings is, when they are afraid ...the want daddy and the hierarchical social command structure to protect them - geee...wonder where that psychology is born from. It's just another peregrination of history we are going through, and it's been repeating itself going all the way back to the Napoleonic wars. But I'm digressing. When aspiring events are at a premium, boredom leads to lust for something, anything dystopia ... and so drought becomes to the angst. But, our reality is usually just when reality seems it may get out of control ...it doesn't. That's what it's like here in this region of the continent. When it comes to drought's contribution to the plausible hysterical entertainment quota, some weird MCS (say) rots some night and dents it below the true omg threshold. It's like the unattainable 40" snow pack in the 495 belt of down here in SNE. We've been close ...but something always happens to limit it from going above that. GOAT years tend to hol' up about 36 give or take. "Droughts" here tend to be intraseasonal, not surviving past the ensuing shoulder season, anyway. Usually ... This year mmm. I find it a little more intriguing because we were below climo input into the system this winter by a significant margin, yet, are now failing to "catch up" ( so far ) this spring. I don't think it's an issue until the bigger reservoirs basins start showing ringed islands while stream flows are down to water gnats bouncing off feted fish corpse' ... But if we get a WNW summer ( warmer than normal chinookian flow with lowish DPs) after this recent 8 months, we'll see if that environmental state is approached.

mm I kinda see where Scott's coming from with the sense that we're breaking out of winter's stretching tentacles - seems to be this is the week this year is choosing to do so. I remember remarking last week that these charts in this period were repositioning the 540 dm thickness N of the border after this mid week period ...still the case. Take today ... it's snowing on the roof line way up there, granted, but this is sub-540 dm thickness yet we're not in the 30s like we would have been just a week ago, instead ... holding in the mid 40s. That subtle distinction of "failing" the cold relative to synoptic metrics is really more spring like than winter to me -fwiw We'll see how tonight's lows go. It's possible we stay above freezing but if we decouple and make the upper 20s (S of CNE ) it may be the last time we see those readings

Tomorrow

wasn't expecting this sky improvement. It's now jumped into the mid 60s, and vis imagery/loops opened up regions N of the Pike for what appears to be a couple few hours of decent heating.

I'm okay - ish -with it because Friday and Saturday have been getting better and better. If we are chopping it up between the two, that's better than always not. Seems like we were getting closer to the latter but this week's breaking the mold.

Yeah, I get it - I was just adding my first hand accounting to/for the consideration... UHI is intense in that region. That much I am in direct observation. But, that also doesn't preclude the possibility of instrumentation, too. Both could certainly be true -