Typhoon Tip

We're just gonna have to get a +3SD ridge with SW flow punching underneath before these models finally, reluctantly stipulate to warming up N-E of the Mason Dixie ... That Euro run's an abomination. 85 in PHL and 35 in BOS and just holds like that for 4 days probably happens

I don't get it with these models sometimes ... why can't they just put up a few days that are like right now? 57, sunny, with just light breeze... You know, spring? wtf It's either got to be 6" of snow and hard nightly freezes, or 85 berzirko warmest ever

Something interesting went on with the NAM overnight. It seems to have been 'swapped out' for a warm result. The FOUS grids in this kind lee side polar air have been struggling to get above +2. Out of no where they are all popped to +6 to +10 in the T1 layer. Today is the Equinox, so if the switch to the summer algorithms is true it's as good a date as any to flip. Man, it is spectacular nape day. 53 full sun zip wind.

It's like 'Chuck NoMorris'

CNN confirms Chuck Morris passing fwiw

As an increasing frequency of observation, I argue that's been occurring less in summers over recent decade(s). There's a plausible reason for it too. I believe there is an emerging resonance feedback ( constructive interference) between the perennial rest state of the flow over the N/A continent, and the CC-related augmentation of heat potential. Combining those to background factors, favors in other words. Longer version: First, the perennial rest state pattern across N/A features a flat ridge tendency in the west that downstream flattens out to an impression of trough in the east, before the flow escapes out into the Atlantic. That means that at all times there is an exertion for ridging in the west, much to the chagrin of the "stop" and "shits" emoji wielding assholes on the forum. It's just that it's not 50/50. It's like a 42/58 thing heh. Second, warm air means higher heights. Now, when where there is heat in the W and SW, that means you have to combine those aspects - such that this results a resonant feedback ( constructive interference) between the fixed background state and the transience of the warm weather's wave function passing through. In short, the feed back enhances itself when that duality super-imposes ( synoptically). And since the back ground fixed exertion is ever leaving, nor is CC going the other way... As an after-note, this lends to the hypothesis that exaggerated ridges are sort of robbing eastern N/A from experiencing these synergistic heat bursts that have been occurring acround the world. Pac NW/June of 2021 ... the few times in NW Europe. Australian. SE Asia springs... etc. Those regions are not as "protected" by N/A built in circumstance of heat deflection. I think this is why NW NE and SE Canada have seen an uptick in the April and early May heat waves...because the DP side of all this hasn't seasonally moved into those regions, such that early heat slips that one mitigating factor, and only has to then overcome the background fixed state. Which the pattern does some times. I mean..this is not an absolute deliminator process at large scales - it's a 60/40 thing. And, by the time we get to mid/late June+ ... the CC -charged footprint teaming up with the background fix state, then adding DPs holding the temps down ... you know, it fits. Because we are contributing our warmth to the total warming pot in night times lows, which in the summer, are highly modulated by the DPs at that end of the diurnal temperature cycle. I think if there's ever a time when that 40 side of the 60/40 ( hypothetical ) delivers a shock and awe heat burst N-E of the Mason Dixie, it will probably be favored to occur in that mid May to mid June window. By July, we'll probably be limited to the 96/75 + upstream continent ozone reflecting particles type heat.

Those are the best kind. Single Supercell CB with nothing around it for 100 miles, carving a canyon 100 miles long

C02 (and other green house gases) warms initially. This improves water evaporation ... Once in water vapor (H2O gas), it absorbs 8+ magnitudes more outgoing LWR than does C02. This secondarily triggers the system into a thermal state acceleration. Not sure what the C02 vs WV discussion y'all engagin' in, but that is the critical relationship. It's interesting as it has been calculated/shown that the oceans have absorbed ~ 90% of the d(T)/attributable heat of the total GW... Generate excerpt from Climate.gov and United Nations, "The oceans have absorbed about 90% of the excess heat generated by global warming, which is equivalent to approximately 23 zettajoules of heat energy in 2025 alone" (there are numerous other sources for the ocean absorption quotient in the GW total) It's a crucial machinery that frankly has saved ours, and countless other species, from an acceleration toward tipping points ( to put it nicely...). The ocean is the great climate regulator in the sense that because the atmosphere's in a perpetual quasi coupled state to the ocean, en masse it is held in check. Thus, the atmosphere can't really modulate too far way from the background thermal state of the oceans. This relationship may have been exemplified in 2023 https://phys.org/news/2025-09-ocean-carbon-ailing-absorption-marine.html. While the article doesn't directly discuss a plausible factor in the atmospheric temperature bounce phenomenon that happened at global scales that spring, but prudent scientific awareness begs the question. Apparently, there occurred a 10% reduction in carbon sink --> the oceanic temperature rises that year, with furthering physical concepts discussing why. Later in the article, this paraphrased article ( actual study here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02380-4 ), cite, "This sudden warming of the ocean to new record temperatures is challenging for climate research—because to date it was unclear how the marine carbon sink would respond," says Nicolas Gruber, Professor of Environmental Physics at ETH Zurich." I bring this citation to attention because my biggest peeve in the ongoing observation of climate change, is that there is either lacking, or too hidden, a sense of urgency that relates to the fact that the whole planet's atmospheric thermal state surged, completely and utterly unpredictably, the way it did. Are we connecting the dots here? So to bring it home. The question/suspicions stems from fairly rudimentary logic; if the oceans absorb the lion's share of the GW total ( over time...), I don't like coincidences. Dynamics processes failed to absorb carbon into the oceans, hence a thermal sphere response: the atmosphere heat burst in the spring of 2023 should be explored/connectable to that. If carbon absorption isn't monitored, it should be, because oh by the way ... the oceans are critically approaching the 2024 curve... It makes one wonder if an atmospheric heat surge is mere month(s) away. Interestingly, the article also describes El Ninos as being 'carbon capture' periods, because the warm water caps the rising CO2, which defaults the system to negative for the atmosphere. It's basically as thought the Earth has built in regulators in all dimensions of consideration- probably what makes life abound on this world... digression.

Seeing as you're begging for my opinion in the matter heh I'm on the fence with this ... Firstly, I don't believe these gaudy QPF numbers coming out of a torpedo system coming from the WNW across the barren continent. Too fast; starved source. That said, even a light to moderate burst for 4 to 6 hours puts a snow pack back down. Whether it has the ability to stay longer than the next sunny afternoon, notwithstanding...but it would be primarily white out side for a time. I said yesterday that the period is worthy of being watched. I don't feel any different. There's enough ensemble registry there.

For ice coring that's improved just recently https://phys.org/news/2026-03-ice-core-histories-greenhouse-gases.html

I think he knows that? seems y'all are bickering about relativity. Relative to this time of year ...getting a couple of hours of fair with a little sun when the temp's flirting with 50 or so is a "napey" vibe and is decent relative to the season. You on the other hand have lesser tolerance for that - I actually agree ... in principle. I find most Marches and Aprils a constant bargaining battle, that not only gets old it still gets older. But I also understand where he's coming from. It can be 34.3 F with 1.8" of rain mixed with cat paws, with absolutely zero hope at this time of year.

Ooh, I didn't check the EPS ... Hopefully, they're right

I never stated my confidence level. I'm merely stating what the study indicated. The aspects about taut/tension in the system is pure logic after the fact. Having said that, it is based on elemental sciences like coring deep sediments, where trapped air extracts can be analyzed for atmospheric chemistry/volatiles ..etc, doing so in strata, knowing factually the layers downward are older as rudimentary fact ... this goes on quite a ways. It's clear that for some reason, these aspects of the world and research we live in escapes you for whatever reason. But that all enables a history with high confidence interval - see... you have to know how these things are determined. That might help the knee jerk tendency to doubt. There was a universe that existed, long before we were ever here. That does not mean we out of hand doubt what the universe had/or did.

"desperate" is more like it ...but I know what you meant. It's really funny - all these complex solutions when the simple answer is, stop creating greenhouse gas at a faster rate than the background geological processes of this world can compensate. It's really that simple. Carbon sequestration is probably the best solution I've ever heard/read about. However, ...that doesn't do any good if the sequestration only matches the production at the other side. The sequestering tech would have to somehow gulp in that mass of the Earth's atmosphere, every year. One Earth Atmosphere/yr process rate. Otherwise, even won't cut it. Because what 2023 showed us - most likely - is that the Earth's system may not have caught up with the d(fluxes) of the last century's-worth of Industrial farts. The latter happened too quickly. I read a study that the increase in C02 since 1900 exceeds any increase spanning 430 million years of geological history and reconstruction/analysis, using everything from deep sediment coring to carbon dating. That's what it means - most likely - to taut a system... The 2023 temperature burst? strikes me as some of that tension being released - just a small fraction. If one follows this logically, it begs the question, 'what happens should all that tension release at once?' First would need to prove whether or not the wholesale planetary system has in fact caught up with the "geological event" of liberating 3 billion years of fossil fuel volatility to the environment in just 200 years.. You know, there's argument as to whether we live in the "Anthropocene" epoch - the proposed current era of Earth's history. One can imagine, should the proverbial rubber band snap all at once and the extinction wave flashes over, the mere 800 survivors out of 8 billion will definitely have an opinion in that debate. Anyway, seeding? These are like Road Runner/'ACME' solutions. Unless the compendium of the greater science brain knows every possible quantum consequence of effecting a system, ...not to mention the unpredictable realm beyond the synergistic emergence horizon..., anything that is done at a planetary scale is probably going to result in the greatest Darwin award in history.

If there was zero predictive skill prior to the 2023 entire planetary systemic bounce in temperature by a whole degree C spanning a single month in spring - just 1 example of not really understanding the planetary system, and a whopper - how is it that humanity knows what will result if they start tinkering with seeding? I mean I realize you're likely in part being glib for humor's sake ..but I've heard this elsewhere. I just fail to see the legitimacy of that. Some scientist might have proffered that in jest in some conference ...could have even been sarcastic. Who knows. But then the comment gets extracted and repurposed, out of context, and now all the cartoon watchers - which let's be honest, is the 92.34% of all people and the civility they create - are running with it.

Seems like it's mostly the operational GFS? The Euro and CMC ( though the latter only out to 10 days) appear to be seeded by anti CC moles in the modeling division of their foreign sources. heh but the operational GFS is trying to lift the ambient polar boundary somewhat N. It's not obvious like you said. "sighs". But it's coherent enough. Shit, we're after the Equinox in a coffee break. Eventually, the Euro/CMC are going to lose to the fact the June is still coming. In other words, seasonality gives a nod to the operational GFS.

Yeah, polar lows are interesting

Should freak people out that that’s climatologically six months ahead of schedule - assuming that’s a warm core… oh ha, never mind

People are glomming onto drought because there are no other headlines to make this engagement a dopa hit right now, Scott

well... given another 70 years of unabated CC and maybe that will have become common March practice.

they'll try to use that as another reason to cancel school lol

Yeah...without the EPS supportive at < 108 hours I'm thinking this is just another GFS endless winter sell.

I also believe there's something sort of "non-Markovian" about heat waves. The short definition of what that is, in quantum mechanics, it's when past --> future states appear to fail independence. The return, or rest state of the environment, behaves as though retaining sort of residual preprogramming. It "inherits" the history of the system. Thus, returning to that previous state requires less stimulation, as though the inheritance 'inclines' the system. Heat waves are obviously above the quantum field theory scale/dimension, but... that's the underpinning philosophy for the hypothesis. Some examples, the human body. Heat stroke survivors appear to be statistically more likely to find them selves in that dire physical state again, if/when they are, again, exposed to the kind of heat that puts the body at risk. The temperature during heat waves will rise as the light rises in the predawn of successive mornings, hours prior to the sun tipping over the horizon. It's like the memory in the system somehow makes it more receptive, so much so that merely increasing lumens of the ambient air triggers the rise. I believe this is also perhaps a part of synergistic mathematics - or might be workable there. When we see these synergistic heat bursts that have taken place, world over, with increasing frequency ... it is because the initial conditions also contain heredity in the system that favors each successive attempt ( next days ). If there are no "invisible" negative interference, or worse yet, there less obvious positive interference, the results appear to go crazy.

Meh... should be watched. It fits the collapse of the cold S motif that's been in place since October... I don't sense the hemisphere's escaped that annoyance. I mean LOL it's not annoying in January when ferreting for snow chances ... but sure as shit it is nearing the equinox and one's heart is elsewhere. Anyway, in the spirit of objectivity a blue spring snow isn't ridiculous in this pattern foot. Would like to see the EPS machinery at least better

Kind of reminds me of the Oct 30 2020 thing