Typhoon Tip

So is that thunder coming on board in S CT? Looks like it's warm frontal thrust/lifting edge

yeah, today had a downer murk look for a week's worth of guidance approaching. the high pressure is retreating due E keeps the SEsties in a moist/saturated flow. The warm front comes through later.

I feel like every year on March 15th we go through this same stench of denial over the seasonal termination timing. I think people need to adopt the following notion at a spiritual level; a perpetually constraining limitation on their expectations: Winter ends after March 7. Springs sometimes host snow as a very valid part of Spring in New England's climate. If/when snow becomes a prevalent outlook event in Spring, it is normal Spring weather... and does not reflect winter as still existing. Also - while not (yet) a prerequisite for getting a 100 on that mental acuity test, anyone include CC disruption gets extra credit.

Something else that's under everyone's radar ( no wonder considering - ), is that there were occasional model cycles building warm anomaly heights over the eastern continent, replete with over-governing circulation modes back then too. It's just that there wasn't any consistency; save for the heat we did get last week, but that was outside the outlook. We were looking at mid month, i.e., now. Anyway, there did turn out to be a big heat anomaly. It packed back SW and is setting off headlines alerts. I've been noticing this over the last several summers actually, that type of correction vectoring. We'd see a big warm up/ridge type -PNAP emerge in the outer temporal horizon of the models, and then it would retrograde through the charts as time went by to just go ahead and end on up right back in the SW frying eggs on High School parking lot science experiments in PHX. I've mused to self that one of these global synergistic heat burst phenomenon might one day visit the NE U.S., should one of those evolve opposite of that persistent correction vectoring - but it's never seemingly capable of doing that since I started noticing that specific behavior. Then, in the winters... we are consummately getting this weird local cold node where despite the background CC evidence, we are - quite convenient and enabling ... - persistently colder than everyone else. I'm not convinced correcting west warmth in the summers, and consummate cold enabling verification in the winters, is entirely unrelated. Yet ... we are supposedly warming fast than anywhere on the planet in the era of accelerating CC? interesting

Will and I called that... Or actually, it's better to say that the modeling complexion, indices to performance tenors et al, looked like a no win scenario for mid March+, two weeks ago. We commiserated a back and forth about it. Those indicators were ugly. Not sufficient to offset normal seasonal climb out (the haunting abstraction of CC not helping -). Yet, the pattern still looked like it was going to try and fight the sun. The residue of that leaves us with no fun for late winter enthusiasts, and no fun for spring and warmth. No one wins. It seems the ambit of prognostic technology's nailing this purgatory.

The irony is that we could have a 20" pack in place on April 1st ...

My brother-in-law’s out nearSturgeon Bay right now. He was saying that the grocery stores are sack run on even for those hardy folk up there

well...I guess this marks the 2nd snow event since this new cold pattern arrived that was completely claimed by dry air.

Hold out huh No snow here on flat expanses. gone. We do have the piles though. It's a weird look. Almost like happening upon the collapsed ruins of an ancient era.

I thought 2020 had flurries in May... in fact, I know it did. I recall standing out on my friend's deck as a blown out virga CU came over and stray dendies floated by for a couple minutes. I'm like really - I don't know. Maybe it has to actually be 32 to damage orchard crops... and that was say 33 to 44 with very low freezing heights.

Hasn't that been a problem more frequently in this part of the country over the last 10 .. 15 years? The demon has been claiming early flowers. Dead flowers = no peaches. The balmy heat bursts we've lustfully, almost 'immorally' wallowed in some four or five February's just since 2010 ( some extraordinarily nearing 80!), ..to mention the ones in Marches... they seem to inexorably be followed by brick earth cold. It's an under-the-radar cost of CC ( that doesn't exist; thank god we're losing crops for no reason, huh - ) related whiplash extremes. You can't flip the seasonal switch that dramatically, intra-seasonally, without consequences to actual life. Risking a digression but I'll just say... humans really do have superior adaptability. But that in away makes them the best agency nature can create to destroy nature - because the shit they stank is tolerated by them, but starts slowly sterilizing all else. But, ...at some point when the seas no longer provide, and the soil loses too much arability to sustain ... it will be impossible to adapt to 0 food.

So long as the wind stays below skin tactility ... the sun will do a ton to offset the annoyance of cold air. It's not warm out? just to be clear. I realize there's some subjectivity to preference but 35 F will still cause hypothermia to anyone naked out there. That is my criteria - can a naked human being survive totally nude. If so, it's not cold. LOL. It probably still still pokes 43 or so. seriously tho, it's all about the sun and no wind at this time of year to reclaim some "nape value". If sitting on a park bench in that sun, and the wind is nary more than a zephyr's waft, creates this wonderful dichotomy to the senses. It's like you can tell it's cold, but at the same time, the protective invisible cocoon of warmth belies that reality - the sun is such liar, huh.

That'll happen everywhere in the continent except for this specific region right here

I think there is... 'micro climates' etc mind you, part of my post is tongue in cheek, but there is subtle truth to drool humor. But to me, there are plenty of days ... too many in fact, whence there is a "continental air mass" and we are not a part of it anywhere E of a NYC-PWM line... to fairly group us in the former.

It's that time of the year when unadulterated sunshine like what's gong on out there this morning, appeals like it must be fantastically warm and soothing outside... yet, you go out there and well... we're still perpetually cursed. Modern technology - think ghost detection at a haunted house - has exposed the demon haha

Which I've felt for years is a lazy broad brushed grouping and is false. If climate science needs to create a new definition, then they need to create a new definition ... but don't call this veritable peninsula that sticks out in the west Atlantic, and suffers weeks-worth of total days out of the year, tainted if not saturated by marine contamination, purely a continental distinction. Bull fuggin' shit. Calling SNE that, when it's 80 in ALB, yet 41 in Metro West population density enjoying slate gray sky and micro droplets on their faces whilst tinged aromas of like low-tide ... is an insult. This is a quasi marine/continental mash up here. I dunno what you call that but enough days are claimed perennially to acknowledge it's something other than purely continental.

There may be a 4 or hr period of heavy rains with embedded/elevated thunder ... Sunday overnight. It's been in the all the guidance for days really. Mainly, I've suspended much thought because I've seen that "warm sector dent" many times in the past then flatten out in short range. There's a stalwart persistence in this case, also being shared among multi guidance. So maybe it has legs. Mild wet warm sector on Monday. Euro QPF illustration with what looks like isolated quasi SCs that afternoon. heh

Bump

It looked that way to me... I haven't followed up on that so no bullets. However, I did look over the 100 thru 10hPa for temperature plumes and there were some at the time. It was not clear this was an en masse downward propagation. There was, however, a geopotential bulge that was splitting around the SE U.S. ridge... and that was collocated 100hPa level showing the flow moving around that curved "obstruction" I'm personally believing these exception warm burst are probably extending the tropopausal heights in some cases as an increasing phenomenon. This, by the way, isn't the first time I've seen this in the past 10 years. warm domes that are bumping those exceptional altitudes from below. interesting. This happened in late autumn last year, too - there was a lot of meme blizzard about SSWs that didn't pan out.

not sure if this old Intellicast ptype is right but if so... it's cat paws or wet snow or virga

There is 0 irony there. One needs to think and start to understand more intimately, the rudimentary knowledge and associations about how these geological system work. When you doubt ... from a position uneducated, the information and raw data that is coming from that type and scale of sophistication, just keep in mind that the same scientific processes you doubt are how and why you can even type doubts on your phone or pc

Yeah, I like that Ray ... Thing is, I don't think the distinction is a trivial matter - if we're going to try and understand how these the end of the world scenarios, we can't really be calling a convention trident missiles, icbms ... lol actually not so funny when the U.S. is choking off China's oil..

Those are all warm index complexions..

LOL ... dude, are paraphrasing me ...ha seriously, I have been using that metaphor for this for the last 10 years. rock on!