Typhoon Tip

could be a red flag. yep. that and the amplitude. euro’s not free of blame in doing this in that range. AIF/ICON/UKMET trended tho. just sayn’ Again there’s index support fwiw

Heh, life expectancy can have multiple definitions - depending on context..etc. First of all, it's not just about CC killing people. That's childish really. I just hear this doubter's tactic all the time, too. Not sure if it is because they can't see the bigger picture, or they have some other aspect about their minds that limits their perceptions into very narrow inclusions. I'm not saying it's you, but too often retorts are myopically linear like that. Reductive, when not conflating. Reductive really is the best word for it, where they either do not understanding or are predisposed to ignore the fuller extent of nuanced complexity that really constructs the topic at hand. Or, are just being immorally devices in only giving data that supports their side. Why not give it a try? The upshot is that it's trying to save lives. I mean like what's the doubter point- there is none. Don't do anything because one thinks their is no risk, is a Darwinian Award looking for a ceremonial. The total assessment of life expectancy comes from any array of additions and subtractions of factors, both of which are also changing in time. Ex, a human at birth in 2025 has a much longer life expectancy than 1725 because of improv(e)(ing) medical standards relative to era. Other discoveries since and including the advantages of, the Industrial Revolution, is why the population of the world soared billions since 1750. This is all vastly more pervasively effecting the extension of life than millions dying from CC. (CC killing millions + population either opting out, or losing birth capacity) / 2 = some hindrance to life expectancy that has, so far, much less weight than the advantages of the last 200 years - the trailing generations of which are yet also advantaged ever more. But this is all a situation that is changing. The bottom line is... people will doubt whatever it is they don't want/can't or agenda to admit, until it causes them pain. There is no such thing in their mind as a CC. There is no such thing as a polluted penis problem. They’ll defiantly remain hard headed until they suffer, then? they are usually evangelical going the other way. I don’t usually engage in this level of the discussion because I find this limitation blocking sight of subject at hand to be all but an impossible barrier. so … just have to wait it out. Eventually denial will be replaced by shame

It may be worth it to thread for that if it persists. There is some index support -

12z Euro's hinting at a NJ modeler in a week. In fact, if it were not for some lead wave interference it'd likely take off. As is, it's the first regional lower elevation inclusive chance to snow. I was mentioning that 10-13th period over in the winter outlook thread just this morning.

In one school of philosophy ... this is actually a good thing - "Climate change inaction costs millions of lives each year, report warns" ( https://phys.org/news/2025-11-climate-inaction-millions-year.html ) It's always been about population. Too many human beings. It's callous perhaps to put it in such terms, but reality and math and logic ...? they are dispassionately true like that. When there are 8 and some odd billion in population pumping out Industrial volatile chemistry as exhaust... it overwhelms the Earth's physical processes. If our species is going to survive by producing all that exhaust, there needs to be far fewer of us. It's interesting that we are being forced to make a choice between inaction and death, vs action when part of that action requiring less births/controlling population. Either way, less people The population correction is already begun, folks - it's just not striking everyone's streets at the same time. Some of which is happening unwittingly, by the way. It is now either too socially disadvantageous for younger child rearing, or there's gamete potency problems manifesting in general male population - the latter is cited/scienced. Birthing rates are empirically dropping at an alarming rate around the world. Whether it is socioeconomic, environmental, or some aspect of both ( probably both..) it seems the ultimatum cannot be escaped. And while that spectrum of causes isn't related to climate change, exactly, again ... too much population.

I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential mornings when comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normally do. It seems we are getting an anomalously large number of superb radiational cooling nights. That one factor appears to be over-achieving relative to "rational cooling night" climo - if there were ever a metric. It's just I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential morning comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normal due. Autumn is the time of year for that to happen, true. But lost count

I wrote about that back on September 9, either in this thread or somewhere. If this winter was going to perform - imho - it would more likely be an early blocking tendency and an early loaded affair. I may have even mused if memory servers, that it may not return post the canonical January thaw. February Lilacs. Low confidence at the time, mainly in deference to the fact that it was 2.5 months away... gee ya think. Anyway, so I don't have a problem with Webb's ideas there. In fact, the recent -NAO and low amplitude +PNA observed 7 to 10 days ago could really be argued as heralding that. ... and now we're doing it again ...with a new -delta( AO/NAO) emerging. As an aside, the problem with the recent temperatures ... there's some relativity going on doing a marvelous job at hiding the obviousness of a colder pattern. We're registering daily averages that range from +decimals to +2s in a pattern that would be -3s, 30 years ago. Compounding further, generational acclimation, colloquially referred to as 'boiling a frog' is putting us in a physical situation where we are now biased to feel a mere +1 is cold autumn, when in fact it is positive. I see these two distinct relativity's sort of moving past one another without much realization that either is happening in ambit discussion ... interesting. Back here on Earth, as snow enthusiasts, ... we may want to watch the 10-13 period of time. Mentioned above, there's a new -D(AO/NAO) emerging in the ensembles, both in the spatial synoptics, but also numerically. The NAO component so far favoring the western limb of the domain, too. The correction vector is pointed S over mid latitude/E N/A. In simple terms, that means non-cutting lows and/or tending to correct S in the guidance over time. Meanwhile, there is sufficient cold/lower thickness spread out across S-SE Canada, due in part to antecedent SPV whirling over the E Canadian shield over the next week. So we'll see where that goes.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DQYXFlND2I6/?igsh=MXdqbzlodzQyaWNpeQ==

oh yeah... lost hour of daylight sunday. i guess one upshot for the model crack crew is you'll get a hit an hour earlier. lol

The low actually bottomed out just below 980 mb up there ... pretty good.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DQdQAs-DuNd/?igsh=MXRuYWplNHZ6b3VnMg==

Funny you mentioned that ... I was noting to self that we really hadn't had much wind around my area over the last 2 to 3 weeks. Leafs, though past peak color, were refusing to let go. Today has set in pretty good with breezes - estimating 30 to 35 mph gusts so far, and the trees have en masses gone skeletal all at once. It's like they all just disrobed. When the wind blows out there, white noise whir; the last time it blew it was the sound of rustling leafs. There are some oaks still with browns and reds but by and large, everything made the Halloween deadline like right at the bell. Yesterday at this time I was wondering if this would be the the first Halloween I'd ever seen whence leafs still on the trees. But nope, we're clear

Notables for this month: The entry into the Solar Minimum, ~ the 8th, a period of tepid insolation that lasts through ~ Feb 9. During that time, the sun loses only small amount of latitude through Solstice, after which, it gains a small amount through the first week of Feb. Veterans Day on November 11 Then of course there's Thanks Giving ( Giggidy for lucky folk ). Climate: Novembers used to be dependable. They would begin rather obviously autumn-like, then by natural progression ... perhaps even ending in either a winter-like regime or seeming about to do so. However, ... particularly since the climate never started changing and was instead an alternate AGW hoaxed reality crafted by The Pentaverate Left Wing conspiracy some 20 years ago ...(according to some) these eerily excessive warmth periods began occurring. WTF, right? Because, "for no other reason other than natural cycles" , massive variability just happens... And so, Novembers as hugely chaotic must then (logically) always just been normal - said by those that claim nothing's changing when chaos by definition means wildly changing. Fascinating, huh. Until we figure it all out...I guess we'll just have to wait until HAARP stops executing the instructions from the Pizza Gate command cadre... and suffer November craziness. This year is no different ... The Pacific is split during the first 10 or so days of month in the available prognostic methods ( index monitoring/model 'cadence' ..etc). The western side of Pacific hemisphere is dominated by a strong +WPO index, which is also being undercut by a rather robust right -RMM MJO progression from phase 3 through 6. Those two are in a constructive interference... a warm signal should be convincing. However, that warm single is not sending a wave pattern as the eastern Pacific and North America are currently being influenced by a flat +PNA, with terminating -NAO exersion over the eastern continent. The operational model runs have been vacillating between a progressive modestly climate cool, to modestly warm layouts, probably being effected by the aforementioned conflict.

I couldn't make it past the 9th. I've had days since when I did not run the Mini splits at all, but these radiational cooling mornings were too annoying - that cool snap back during that time was one of them. Then, with low sun angles not heating up the next day until 2pm ... forced me turn them on at least for a little while those mornings. In general I agree with you, tho. There's usually a period every late Aug to early Nov in there somewhere where the technology is dormant. This year it seemed to be more Sep 15 to Oct 10-ish

I dunno... Won't be led along on that one. Novembers have been hugely variable in reality, not dependably 'the best' in either direction. I suppose if one's bag is to have that month be excessively variable? then sure ... it was best for their fetish to have that month be all over the place. But I've witnessed Novembers range from 80 F to snow storms... both within the same year, or year-to-year.

I’m just happy we made it thru an October without snow down here

Leaf blizzard incoming....

ha, new NAM's all the way down to just .27 at Logan from this

This is a very linear approach so tfwiw - but to help elucidate the concern in using 2013 as analog, let's look at the 2013 WPO, and compare it to recency. Below on the left is the 2013-2014 WPO ( provided by CPC), and on the right, 2024-present 2013 1 0.07 2024 3 0.97 2013 2 1.49 2024 4 0.73 2013 3 0.59 2024 5 -0.27 2013 4 -1.86 2024 6 -1.29 2013 5 -1.13 2024 7 -0.77 2013 6 -0.47 2024 8 1.06 2013 7 -0.88 2024 9 1.38 2013 8 -0.17 2024 10 0.91 2013 9 1.93 2024 11 -0.20 2013 10 -0.09 2024 12 -0.33 2013 11 -0.04 2025 1 1.02 2013 12 -2.01 2025 2 0.32 2014 1 0.54 2025 3 0.77 2014 2 -1.37 2025 4 -0.83 2014 3 -0.43 2025 5 -0.49 2014 4 -1.36 2025 6 1.27 2014 5 -0.85 2025 7 -0.58 2014 6 -0.30 2025 8 -0.31 2014 7 -1.63 2025 9 1.22 2014 8 -0.77 2014 9 -1.23 2014 10 -0.32 2014 11 0.13 2014 12 -0.13 graphically ... What sticks out is that the WPO was predominately negative in the 2013-2014 period, but has been predominately positive lately. That particular index is quite important as it loads the Pacific ... We can root it ultimately back to Asia for that matter. All that, and also feed-backs (constructive or destructive interference ) from the MJO frequency... which also has at least a say in the ENSO distribution... Quagmire that ultimately giggidies or glorifies our winter tendencies over N/A. But, that is a big difference in that particularly circulation mode/manifold comparing back whence to now ... So it really - for me - adds to the uncertainty if not doubt.

Yeah this frontal system isn't going to commit to a coastal until very late, too late to really be a coastal for SNE and points down the EC. Appears there's a some commitment to doing so up along the Maine coast, ...even gets interesting up in eastern Quebec. But the overall belated behavior makes this more of an occluded and quick transition through inclement conditions sometime this evening. In fact, it may be dry by 6z and just west windy with falling temps tomorrow. Boring and pedestrian and utterly normal for the 2nd worst time of the year behind the god-forsaken April misery - altho, in fairness... Aprils seem to have been improving in recent decade but anecdotal. Lol. Couple aspects. This system lacked antecedent cold air. The preceding d(indexes) liked this period for a coastal - the fact that that it probably does commit and redevelop and deepen in time to clip D.E.M. with NE/rains ... is probably at least a gyp verification on that... But, if this had been colder, than the primary would not have wound up and occluded so fast, collocated with the trough so far west. We end up with a triple point some 1100 km away around Cape Cod. The actual 500 mb wave spacing moves the wind max SE of ISP ... in the past, with cold air, the primary can't penetrate and the new low happens sooner where there's less resistance along farther SE and the whole thing feeds-back on the east position. It's balancing q-g forcing against lowering viscosity/boundary layer resistance. Not enough of the latter and the low ends up purely under the q-g/omega and through NY she goes. The other aspect is the modeling attenuation. It's all but dependable that some percentage of total amplitude out beyond D6 or 7 ... disappeared when just about anything in consideration arrives inside 72 hours. All the models do this. I still don't definitively know exactly why that is (tho some ideas... ) but it's rather dependable. This system did appear to attenuate some as it came into shorter range.

The 2025 rendition of the warm Pacific may signify something else. Not directing this at you, per se, but to the general audience. The warm Pacific "blob" as it's called is not forcing patterns - nor subsequently constructing the winter pattern biases. The blob exists due to a long duration applied wind stresses, distributing and redistributing warm surface mass in the ongoing quasi-coupled atmospheric-oceanic system. That forcing disributes warmth vs upwelling and cooling ..etc, over time, and it is a shallow thermal distribution response ( SSTs ). We've spent time explaining this in the past, and to the same group of individuals that frequent this social media ... but given some time ... we're back to reading posts that sound like the blob is going to cause the winter pattern? - false if that's the thinking. What needs to be done is a study that correlates the blob occurrences in both space, time, and amplitude, against the preceding hemisphere's synoptic footprint. It's far in a way more likely that 2013's Pacific thermal layout/phenomenon is connected to a pattern that was going on, and led to both: creating the blob, while also ensuing the Chicago record cold that winter. The pattern created both. Not the other way around. That said, there may be some predictive usefulness in using the warm vs cool Pacific distribution whence any such correlation can be assessed. In 2025, the Pacific looks similar to 2013 - which means, given the above facets, there has likely been similarities in the distribution of surface oceanic stressing patterns to date. But here's the problem: Does it persist? That's the key question. Unfortunately, nothing about 2013 vs 2025 predicts that very clearly. Having nothing else to really go on at that point, ...yeah, it's not unreasonable to look for that persistence - but there really shouldn't be any presumption there, either. For one, different synoptic variances may lend to similar distributions, where given both warm years, one variance lends to a 2013's winter pattern, but the other does not. So if-so variances would also need to be defined.

Relative to what ? I mean it just seems we're floating a +2 as our "cold" days ... I think Friday morning will T burst in the under belly prior to CAA late in the day, just adding...

I've heard of geese up near 28 K feet but I think that's about the limit ( also..). I mean, those are not only idiot-hoaxer sized like you said, but they'd also be flying at an altitude where there's almost no air - certainly not enough to float bird when birds don't travel at the 600 mph it would require to generate lift under their wings. But who knows what the real source of that is... it could have been intended for art, and then some other ass-clown decided to use it for whatever. At the end of this, nothing that "originates" in social media can be trusted, ever.

looks fake for obvious reasons actually

Perhaps during peak periods there are less overall hurricanes, but more Cat 5's (?)" that was gonna be my knee jerk guess, yeah. In other words, occurrence counts of TCs ( in general) per year may be well correlated, but category 5s may require a broader set of favorable parameters. Not that anyone asked but ... I've wondered in the past if these upper tier TC frequencies are more endemic to this particular micro geological span of time. They will tend to become less when/if the atmospheric thermodynamic rest state catches up to the oceanic heat phenomenon - if/when that happens. TC mechanics require a thermodynamic initial state, from the quasi oceanic-atmospheric coupling at the bottom to the way the curve is all the way up to 100 mb. If the bulk troposphere sounding was to modulate associated with CC, that may have an impact on the vitality of these storm engines - later generations... But for now, we have hotter than normal OHC underneath a TC viable sounding and that's a powderkeg