Typhoon Tip

LOL ... haha yup, set up the easy recliner with towels, tie off the upper arm with the rubber...and start tapping the hit vein, the dopa delivery is always here!

not that anyone asked but ... i feel now until Feb 8 is winter regardless of temperature anomalies. it's really more of whether the pattern is compensating for the sun challenges at this latitude/dates. That doesn't make it non-winter though. the earth really needs to get it's tilt across whatever degrees from vertical it is on or around Feb 8 before i consider non-winter. "consider" - that doen't mean declared. It depends on the year at hand. Obviously, in 2015... Feb 8th didn't mean shit. But, other years, you feel the sun and south side flower beds have little crokus shoots. the snow's been beaten back to the shady woods and you're putting up +5s ... it's not very winter like when it's like that and then combined, the sun's left the min and soaks us. so it depends on the year. but without the sun, heh... it's winter. it's just a matter of whether the winter is what we want it do be.

yeah, noticing on sat/vis loop ...there's some environmental tussle going on where the S/SW flow is running over the top of this shallow radiative cooled dense BL air. instantiating a very low very shallow overrunning lift. Probably not a well modeled circumstantial feed-back. The strata that is the result is like super thin but with a low early Jan sun angle, that's enough to blot out and shade. if we can keep the mid and upper level clouds at bay, eventually we'll warm enough that this will mix out but some places may get a couple hours of ceiling first.

GFS' recent runs hinting at that ... My only point before is that there's wave interference that is negative. That trough totality, albeit containing some potent embedded S/W at beta scales, is in fact positively tilted. The QUE vortex up there is in bad spot climo and physics-wise. These aren't really disputable. But he brought up a good point about looping and seeing the history, and the wind barbs are turning more S along and off-shore, so that's indicative of slowing - or having the ability to do so - the progressive nature overall. The WI dive probably catches, and then the phase ends up potency has enough - your "hook and latter" low fits that. But ... shit this can all change of course. it's fun to jockey the model runs LOL

yeah, no question there. you know there's a chance we could mix some. the NAM's grid has mid BL winds over 20 kts from the SW at 18z. might just get it done

It's going to be an interesting challenge for the feeble early January sun. 50 is a 32 F recovery for a lot of these locales around here. Easier done even a month from now.

ah yeah. no did not loop it. I was in fact knee jerk reacting to that as a scalar "nice looking set up". Which if we didn't know the history, I would still argue that doesn't look that good. However, upon knowing/looping, yeah we can see that the wind barbs along and off the EC are pivoting toward more SW from W/WSW direction.. That's some slowing of the progressive aspect; probably going to be enough to allow that WI knife to 'catch up'. Still don't like the QUE position up there but probably what happens is there's a potent result with a very sharp N deform axis type deal

nah, too positively sloped overall. those wave spaces are negatively interfering with one another. it's not those that is the problem... it's big to small that's the issue. There's not enough s/w ridging rolling out ahead of the whole structure... The flow is angular but flat leaving the eastern sea-board. It's doing that because the flow was originally more ridged there, and then it got compressed... so the flow is fast/too fast, such that when that amplitude then arrives, it can differentiate the field and cause WAA to form which then creates the S/W ridging... this is complex to explain and most people don't get it. they just get angry and think your trolling but that's going anywhere very special wit that leading

man these operational runs are all fucked up with wave spacing/interference schemes. The indexes nailed this period... well, so far - nothings verified yet. But the +PNA, however west biased or whatever is going to happen. Anyway, the best fit for the amplifying +PNA at mid month is actually the 24th phantom system on the GFS' 00z. But by then, the +PNA is in a state of decay - which is also not a certainty anyway. It's like we should be seeing a 24th type look on the 14-15-16 period but the field is mired down by wave space issues which is stopping that from happening. The 00z GFS was dubious with that 970mb micro cyclone. It's nice eye candy sitting there with category 2 hurricane winds and choke snow a stones through E of Logan like that, but whenever you see a system that is dimensional-challenged in the midst of a large/huge amplification like that it is always suspect and pretty much never happens. It's like the model physics are responding to the immense volatility of the total pattern, and then that triggers a systems not well coupled to the that larger field - otherwise...the system should be larger. Like the 20fukum4th! uh-nnoying. You can see the wave interference in the ens means of both the EPS and GEFs. There is a deep anomaly at the longitude of the Tenn. Valley on the 15th, and then while the ridge stays fixed in position out west, the nadir is suddenly repositioned back toward St Louise on the 17th. That's indicative of wave contention in the means. That's prooobably why they have been having issues getting more coherent with any cyclone signals.

https://phys.org/news/2026-01-ocean-temperatures-high.html

Slightly colder run again but moving too fast would mitigate

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing

So I'm looking for the 15th S/W spacing and it's not even in our hemisphere until 30+ hours ... that circle in the top left half way to Japan appears to trace. Yeah, about as close to 100% chance that this things going to morph all over hell and gone before we need to worry about it

Everyone's hung up on phasing for some reason... I was under the impression this 15th ish was Miller A Those aren't phases usually until the get past our latitudes; the clio on Mill As is that they get captured near NS or NF and then we see why Baffin Island is basically just big bald barren rock. personally I haven't seen much evidence that this was going to be a subsume or any other type of phasing ?

yup, Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream.

Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream. Not sure where this is going but at 156 this is a better set up for the mid monther heh, wrong thread -

It all evades the real pertinent question for me... why do posters reference those out side this medium like that. Doing so usually couched in a some opinionated bio over how awesome they are Maybe just because of what Brian said? When reality provides a lower dopa potency, people hump delusions of grandeur for their high haha

and it works on a post-modern population's "highly analytical/objective" perception and subsequent court of public opinion, too.

Yeah it's all conservation of momentum and wave mechanics. With a stouter ridge around 110 W ( say ...), the azimuth of the diving S/W is steeper, and that also constructively feedsback on the total amplitude as the L/W and S/W mechanics are in sync so in short, strong S/W ... to which negative tilting is a part of that characteristic

Why do we keep referencing other people that do not appear to be a member and/or contributor in here ? not sure what the purpose of that is for. are we supposed be oohing and in awe of their content? or are we supposed to be impressed that you know this person

As influential posters it is probably equally annoying for us to swing between tones of optimism and then despair, inside the same hour LOL buuut... Re the GFS operational. I do like the position of the western ridge better in this run than the previous. Previous left ... new position right That S/E repositioning may seem subtle but it is crucially important/sensitive in how the wave spacing behaves wrt S/Ws ejected down stream. The subtly more compressed isohypses along the Rockies S flow on the right is also an homage to attempting a ridge farther S/E. You don't ( as winter even enthusiasts ..) want to see the left variant of the +PNA. ... As much. I mean I'm sure in the last 3,000,000 years of eastern N/A there's been event with the left version... but excluding the rarefied scenarios. Anyway, bump that a little more and it would be better.

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding

the 0Z operation Euro and both 0 and 6Z GFS operational runs abandoned the more distant -EPO we were discussing - which was always contingent upon the entire technological ens ambit actually not being full of shit. I dunno. Christ Figure for them being right with all that weight but with doling out of uncertainties seemingly at an all time embarrassment of riches maybe is all a red herring - starting to dream of Feb 8th’s annual solar hole escape date … Just issue fatigue talking … Anyway, just thought I’d point out that oddity about the op versions.

It's kind of hilarious to be defaulting to a thaw when looking at a +PNA crawling up into a -EPO look. It's times like these I wonder ... when/if the pattern actually flips warm, what the f will that entail.

So enabling for deniers... ... particularly, deniers all carry one particular almost necessary trait in order to be denying, and that's the inability ( perhaps a psychological limitation/aptitude - ) to simultaneously be aware of what they are looking at, with respect to keeping the big picture in mind. Their processing disconnects those two, and of course when limited by that state of awareness...that defaults their reason preferentially to just what is perceivable via their personal senses - in the construction/impression of reality. This is a long winded to way of describing the 'pin-head' nimrod with head up fucking asshole. In this case above, the cold over N/A is just perfect to jam head deep up myopic butt holes, and claim that is the reality. I think it is uneven evolution. I think there is a gene, a very necessary one ... for contemplation and objective reasoning that includes a broader dimension that what is merely available via the biologic sight and sound. If people don't have this, they are prone to denial - in anything. The rest is just immoral douchery... ( the preceding is tongue-in-cheek cynicism that somehow smacks as having some real value )