Typhoon Tip

92

We are actually ahead of yesterday by 2-5 degrees from what I'm seeing/estimating using this NWS product (it's out of the GRR office but I like it) https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=grr It's a drag and drift over product. Click on the image, hold and pull and it slides around all over the god's creation. Anyway, yesterday we were 86-ish most sites, with Logan the only one that 90 by 10 am. If you click on the point sites the product offers the 5 minute to hrly obs for the last day(s), so if I were not so lazy I could verify my comments here. LOL I may be wrong but it seems we're ahead by a little.

The city UHI factor did not just appear when the climate change acceleration took place. It's always been there over these last century(s). (UHI now) - ( UHI back then) = the d(UHI) factor. Doing that arithmetic results a positive number; in other words, a net gain from the UHI factor. The UHI contribution is responding to the atmosphere's ability to store more thermal energy than it had prior to the Industrial Revolution ... just like the ambient planet is. It just so happens to be that the environmental prompt of the urban setting is so conducive to heating, it responds faster than the open terrain of rural regions. But his ability to respond quicker is not an offset argument to CC - it's ironically more of a metaphoric thermometer that exposes more heat quotient available to the UHIs. Not sure what's motivating your question, but it's air apparent ( pun hopefully annoying ...) that people that attempt to ply the argument of exaggerated heat, have less learned and/or native understanding that the science is simply more right, whereas the less educated/intelligentsia are more wrong for even thinking that idea is correct. Utterly false Op Ed beyond this point: Which is why I blame the science community for a lot the sociological stigma to climate change. It was never brought forth the way it should have been. In stead of breaking press to the media as finger wagging doom, this should have been handled in the Pentagon, as it is both a national and global security risk. Top down corruption may also have blocked this, granted, but just living through the last 40 years of zeitgeist, one does not get the feeling this approach was really even attempted in that order/consideration. Instead, it was a PR failure to attack the custom of that cultural heritage - which was entirely built by the energy provided by fossil fuels...etc..etc. That was skeptically processed ( probably) as something else in a world where media has degraded its credibility spanning that same time - and gotten far worse. This is like ... intuitively automatic at this point. "Media" has become a veritable ongoing movie, thematically a comedy over a backdrop of dystopian colors. And now with AI obfuscating truth and fiction, what trust could remain... Good luck with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet failures and ocean catastrophic rises now. The biggest failure of the scientific ambit's PR tactic was not the the climate is changing. The problem isn't global warming. It's not. Yeah...the world has been warmer, and colder, over geologic history. The problem is lack of understanding that the human species, like every species on the planet, in inextricably dependent on the health and vitality of the whole systemic ecology of the planet. That's always been the failure. Humanity has created this industrial bubble, within which we are very successful at creating surpluses, and options in the ongoing survival motif. Over successive generations...this has become entitled. And part of sense of abstract entitlement is an utterly suspended disbelief that these advantages could be taken away, that they are immutable - thus ... "we'll be fine". We won't be. ...unless we win the technological race against our own demise... Maybe some tech will be invented, just in time, that restores the system back from the edge, bringing back vitality by turning on some sort of sci-fi-bilator This is an illusion in the bubble. We are still alive because of the immeasurable vastness of species interaction in the Gaia-life, the ecology of the whole planet. And that ecology is fragile. Life evolved within certain tolerance bandwidths, one of which is the exceptionally complex way in which temperature effects environments. When the temperature changes at a faster rate than the adaptation rate of the ecology's constituent codependencies, by the time observations are made that suggest stress, stressing had already begun. Failure is by then imminent. Diasporas trigger problems when species flee to new, unfamiliar realms to survive [enter the Gaia bible here ] ... culminating in extinctions. Remove enough keystone species from the entire ecological scaffolding of the world, and the world crumbles. The mass extinction events in Earth's history were linked to sudden disruptions in the environmental status quo, kind of like a billion years worth of fossil fuel stowed in the Earth, being liberated in just 300 years by an innovating agency that has no checks and balances built in to modulate the roll-out of its technologies - certainly not for using oil. And now? we're ironically too inextricably linked to using it, to abruptly stop would unfortunately represent a problem, huh. You know ...the greatest natural disaster to have ever occurred on this planet might in fact turnout to be the advent of human innovation.

It missed us south ... no question. Last minute Charlie Brown. I was blaming it on that outflow waste that poured through the area overnight and tho I feel there's some value there, I'm also noticing the rim of the core/tallest heights arrived on the 12z sounding S of the guidance mean leading prior to today. So we were duped a bit ... These are minoring issue and probably don't account for very much ...but the difference between 97 and 102 really isn't that much, either. But it could be enough to have cost us that much of a fake out. I'm wondering if tomorrow goes ahead and stalls at 94 ?

actually 99 here for the moment ... hottest this summer now

I've been stuck at 97 for two hours straight.

Logan touched 100 apparently

Man, this 12z Euro bidness would make today seem like COC if it ever got kicked outta the west

97

Really ... I've come to find that heat goes out with a bang more so when it is tied up with a frontal/warm sector. This is broadly synoptic in scale - I may certainly be wrong but just my impression over the years, when the ridges doing these heat wave ordeals deflate, the heat does in fact leave quietly. Then, some front comes along after the fact ... interesting

Logan 99

In fairness I think Boston metro at large is vindicated ... there's enough NWS hundos here to go ahead with it

Well rats bid ... ORH is 90

I'm also less impressed with this ridge as we've come thru the finally stretch of modeling. We're not over 590 dm heights actually, which was sustained for several day's worth of model cycles in the blend. There may have been individual model/runs along the last week's worth of guidance that didn't but they must have been rarer, considering the mean had 594 dm right at that door most of the time. Yet we're 588. That's impressive enough I guess ... but it seems we were sneaky Charlie Browned by a little here. I think in order for us to get a bona fide 102 for two days in row ...the models have be down right Hadean ... so we can go ahead and tax us our cursed boning for this region leaving an actual amazing event.

97 at Logan They may be surging

I don't argue this ... but, just the same I'd like to have seen today's set up operated on by diurnal heating ... without the overnight processing event, which stayed safely N of NYC's current heat parade. I agree with that aspect you mentioned an hour ago that we may see a burst of sorts if we suddenly mix out a vaguely coherent lowest layer. Like yesterday ...

uhp 95

94

mm 21.5 C should get one to 39 C if the mixing hgt's to 850 sigma. The adiabat stops at 1000 ( you know this..), 36 C on the skew t log p diagram, but then the 1000 to absolute surface slopes to the right for 2 to 3 C (typically) in a fair expectation. That's about a buck-2 ... when you don't get outflowed overnight causing hard to prove lag holding you down LOL

This is what it's like around here when it comes to tracking big heat I've come to find over the years. It's like the 2026 Red Sox: they always find a way to lose. Then they'll sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series. That's like when we're supposed to be 88 but we get a 97 - amazing but ultimately not amazing. I knew this in my partial wakened state overnight .. that those gentle rains and barely audible thunder rumbles were gently destroying the heat extremes today. Figured

I'm thinking that boat sailed when that outflow came throughout overnight -

Looks like DP crash into the 60s where the Ts are in the mid 90s or approaching that.

For now...here's the winners

I suppose it's possible that those regions unperturbed by overnight scrubbing of the heat staging, like down around the megalopolis ...will cap earlier, and we may be squeeze up as late party guests. Yeah...could I mean it's 92 to 93 prior to noon, which is hot enough. Yesterday we were in the upper 80s ( I think ) around now, and managed a lot of 95 to 97s in a 3 pm surge .. so if we can tack on 7 to 10, will be in 100. interesting

It's nasty but we got screwed if people are enthusiastic about heat trophies. The big kahuna heat is NY Metro to EWR and western L.I.... most NWS sites tucked in there are 98 to 103 at 11:30 am!!! BOOM us...? hot, but pedestrian so far. I really think that weird surviving convection - that by synoptic convention should not have... - sending that outflow overnight basically ruined us for contention in this thing for today. Tomorrow may have a shot with unperturbed overnight heat setting stage better.