Typhoon Tip

Hartford, aka BDL, is +4 and change for April.

Ah hahahaha perfect!

Ha! didn't y'all just have this exact same conversation two weeks ago? I don't get the impression you're succeeding in influencing that particular poster.. lol. Umm he's not inclined to agree with you, much less even read further than 'not great' when it comes to whatever it is he's using to promote the avoidance of inevitable seasonal progression toward summer. hahaha. that goes on here a lot. Like no problem admitting summer; but don't admit to signs and process -

We keep in mind also that the ambient thermal gradient between the tropic of Cancer and 50 N is getting weaker and weaker. By June, it's usually getting to it's perennial nadir - with the exception of any jet meanders which do happen once in a while. By and large though that all means the long wave, wave lengths are shortened to the point where any would-be NE Pac positive anomaly doesn't teleconnect that same in late May through late August as it does in late Novie through Feb/March. Shorter wave lengths in fact can intuitively signal a SW Canadian negative, over top a Great Basin/SW conus capping ridge, setting up future Sonoran release events... Quit a different implication from -EPO/January

Oh, completely agreed! ( full disclosure, I'm hoping for it). I don't wanna give Kevin any reason at all to start pimping drought fallacies in attempts to set up the dystopian d-drip doses all summer... meanwhile, my lawn stays green until mid august. Yeah, as far as the NAO handling... it's ( we know this -) obviously a stochastic index domain... but I sort of ignore the distractions of the individual model runs and just rely on a combination of 3 basics: the 5 day running mean of the synoptic structure; climatology; personal experience - as you mentioned, that -NAOs tend to blossom/lag after a period of usual early warmth - particularly when said warmth is over the eastern mid latitude continent. This latter need correlative proof and is personally anecdotal, but it is a late winter and spring phenomenon I have noted over many years. Just combining all that gunk... -NAO appears set up and well ?

It looks 'to me' like that's sort of symbolic as a last hurrah, like a winter death gasp before those in the room swear to seeing a glow exiting the body... Might even manifest as a bona fide coastal/Nor'easter ( before gallooting, know that it would swept rains). And I wouldn't be shocked if a new moon is scheduled then, too. That's always like that. Jesus. I've stopped fighting why and just assume at this point. The Earth's atmosphere always wants to pick on Block Island during full moon/spring tide. Just use the modeled atmosphere to tell when the spring tide is there - without even using astro charts ... heh. If there isn't a spring tide, then the modeled low ends up not happening. "Seems" is not the same as correlation though so... tfwiw. Anyway, after that would-be event ( or just the 30th -2nd period in general), I sense a significant flip may occur - pun unavoidable. Lately I've seen very very subtle hints in the operational Euro model's extended artistry for blocking breakdowns. As of last night, the control version of both the EPS and the GEFs systems are nose diving the PNA very negative into the first week of the month. Mind us, this is the 22nd of April so it's not like that's a coon's age away. We'll see. I'm wondering if this time next week we're looking at an impressive see-saw warming over the eastern mid latitudes - above season/climo.

You can actually see the thermal processing of the lower levels on the 06z UKMET for Friday rather nicely... This lobe of modestly warmed 850 mb layout bulbing up over SNE around 21z is definitely because of the sun + compressed d-slope working it over. This is one of those 60 day dandies Brian was mentioning yesterday. I also recall mentioning a couple three days ago that the pattern didn't really look crushingly negative to me - more like neutral with an offsetting lean. It's just hard to get us BN frankly, unless we have more direct feeds of perpetual inject into the region - hint hint, which we did this last winter

This air mass is both colder than normal, but also... rather prone to machine/automation busts. It's just because the sun is by now seasonally hugely potent, and growing. I was just looking at Friday... that's a general light WNW to NW down slope compression look under an 850mb -2 or -3. Jeez, I've seen it be almost 60 F over a snow pack in mid February due to full sun under 0C 850s. So, although-2 or -3 is a bit of a neg anom, the surface results can be offset quite a bit when compression from air down sloping happens under all that solar power dumping into the environment. Wouldn't shock me to see those MEX numbers verify too cool

Not to be contrarian or argumentative but ... that just looks like background CC ( or expectation thereof ) to me. Remember, those products are not trying to equate color with the 'OMG' factor. Ha. Seriously, those are probabilities for occurrence. They don't address magnitude. For ex, if those "warm" regions were to verify +.01 for JJA, that is considered a success in claiming there was 50, 60 ...90% chance for above normal. That's it. Nothing more. I will add that this has been explained a hundred times...yet people still post those CPC outlook graphics like look out! We're red hot! These are probabilities... probabilities... probabilities..., for above normal at all... at all... at all...

I found this to be an interesting article... https://phys.org/news/2026-04-climate-decline-hot-cold-extreme.html (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-026-06200-3) Dr. John R. Christy, Alabama State Climatologist (retired); professor of atmospheric and Earth science at The University of Alabama in Huntsville I'm curious if this may ever be corroborated by other's findings. **Also ... bear in mind the study is regarding "extremes" It doesn't address the longer term climate averages rising. Those are created by the daily stuffing, the vast majority of which are not extreme, per se. I can see a pathway toward reducing the "extremeness" of extreme events, while the bulk temperatures results are warming over time. It would come from increasing the water vapor content. This is basic Meteorology: in order to store more water vapor requires more energy. Raising the global energy level ( planetary energy imbalance ) by way of packing green house gases faster than the background geological processes can compensate, raises temperature. GW incarnate. This provides the necessary energy to evaporate more water and keep it in the atmosphere. I would be really keenly interested in a DP comparison variation of Dr Christy's findings, if the lowering extreme magnitudes might also have correlative relationship with any rises in integrated Dew Point (relative to sigma levels) since 1899. The idea being, as DP ambience becomes more and dense over time, it has a modulating impact on ambient temperature. This is actually rather low-bar atmospheric thermodynamics. The magnitudes of extremes of hot and cold are modulated less due to the thermodynamics involved with the energy needed to keep water in vapor form. When the ambient cold sourcing has high WV content it's just not going to be as cold, because it's holding more thermal latency. Contrasting, as the DP (temp and water vapor integral) rises the temp always comes down; that is because therms are "borrowed" from the kinetic temperature in order to keep the water in gaseous form. 98/80 has equivalent energy to 115/68 ..etc. The shortened version is a 'trade off' so to speak. Is the extremeness of extreme events trading magnitude for high WV content.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/21/us/deaths-disappearances-scientists-investigation ..they've hit the Climatology community, too, if there weren't so many of them.

Came back 20 deg so far... 24 --> 44 Pretty much 0 discernible wind ...any movement out there is closer to untouched and unknowable. With that purity of the clear sky and now late summer sun intensity, that's about as close to a 10/10 nape factor as can be found.

Yeah ... in so far as this, I was not intending to argue that. Ha. No I'm just changing the subject a bit that we've appeared to slip back into this bias of cooler loading into SE Canada and NE/CONUS, not dissimilar to what plagued the the winter months. I provided those monthly means ( C/O NASA) around the 10th of every succeeding new month over winter and into early spring. Every month with the possible exception of March ( though arguable...), demoed we were cooler, either relative to local climatology when not relative to the planet as a whole. That annoys me, full disclosure. For a couple of reasons. One being that I was afraid of a spring that forcibly jams cold shit down our throats and being powerless to stop it haha. I'm grappling with how much of this is "normal" though to be fair. The other reason is that CC-sociological stuff... which is a murky imperfect science of human oblivion that I'll leave alone for now. I've shown no pause or shyness in extolling my extra special hatred for April over the years, despite my love for "springing" away from winter - but therein is the problem. Seldom does this geography experience that kind of transition. I am definitely done with winter ( usually...) by February 15th every year, so let's big brother seasonal change while mother nature's not looking! Anyway, looking forward at guidance for the next ...actually out to the end of the 360s, if that really characterizes our verification we will likely be back in that cold bias region..

That's frost. Open fields and car tops typically begin frosting at 36, particularly on nights with high radiative proficiency.

Not as long; not as deep - or will be. So it appears

It seems about hours 72 to 96 removes the -NAO ridging in the ensemble means... but, maintains the behavior of the flow across the eastern mid latitude continent - as though it is still there. The models are "sensing" some non-linear mechanics for -NAO, powerful enough to shape the linear ( observable wave distribution ) handling whether the block is there or not. One consequence, the Euro and CMC 00z solutions. Hopefully they are wrong. Because they're attempting the dreaded rock-bottom pattern lock in using that. Particularly the CMC .. long about 156 hrs it takes tiny meso-beta scaled S/W and uses it to carve out a 3 contoured close low and when you loop it almost seems like a spontaneous manifestation with no real input. Black hole just opens up in the perfect position to impose fantastic torture. Hyperbole aside, that's that non-linearity being exposed. But it doesn't have to be right because it's beyond 120 hours. Otherwise, move to 2nd residence and don't come back until some time deep into May

Hard freezes in a warming world

It's fallen right back into that "targeted" cold anomaly that festered the entire winter ... enabling straw men deniers two sheets away from being as smart as flat Earthers.

Looks like there's a secondary cold front according to WPC's most recent surface analysis. Some of this might be a response to that pressure perturbation coming thru. But it is on the move... looping vis it probably doesn't last the whole daylight. Along this end of Rt 2 we're holding out with sun for the moment. Yeah, you'll get 15 minutes before sunset hahaha.

mm... N-E of an approximate Albany - Boston line did not register "widespread 80s and 90s" last week. Along that line did observe a couple of afternoons where it crept in but it would shunt... collapsing back into CT. By and large it was short of widespread for a large chunk of the Northeast US. Heh, I realize there is no world NE of the Tristate to Philli region, but just in deference to envious eyes made to watch warm air from their cold predicament, widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US is a just a wee bit of a spin.

Nice to be contending with this while relative to date and history we are presently "enjoying" the 2nd or 3rd warmest Earth since the invention of thermometers ...

Not a bad bounce back here this monring.. 44 sucks, but it was 28 at dawn. Helluva lot better. I'm sure we're hitting the bounce ceiling soon... Suppose we can keep the wind from kissing napes too much, the power of that sun, Aug 20 equiv for shits and gigs ... 101 in window shut parked car, 46 outside the window? Just imagine asking any given August 20 to be held < 50. We may start destructing by diurnal cu, too

After today and tomorrow the patterning looks like 10 days ( to start ...) of persistent nondescript neutral Ts... with 'tendencies' along the way for BN. It's just that typical model regression in mid spring tends to oversell cold looks in the mids and extended ranges. Then combining that bias with "some kinda" coefficient CC forcing from the background state, together probably helps to suspend closer to neutral. It's just harder to sustain below normal then it used to be decades ago. The -NAO is looking pretty weak in the operational runs... tending to limit the physical manifestation of that index state by being both inconsistent with the magnitude of actual ridging up there, but also ranging placement between the western and eastern limb. Which matters... east would allow warmer hgts to creep farther N over the mid latitude continent. I.e., maybe not as bad for warm enthusiasts here after all. West variant, however, during a flaccid slackening gradient would probably cut off lows near Cape Cod and really ratchet up the Count Rugen torture. That said, there's still something of it there. Because the behavior of transits; having trouble getting N of our latitude is -NAO suggestive. Some amount of suppression is modeled nonetheless.

probably trying to resolve the anachronistic circumstance of nearing solar max blazar energy dumping into meta-physically imposed January cold hell

well, I might otherwise be taken aback by the fact that we're going below freezing tomorrow night under a full on January thermal sounding structure ... buuuut, welcome to the biggest piece of shit geographical spring region on planet Earth - i.e., not surprising