Typhoon Tip

Accounting for the typical NAM biases at this range this is largely a non-event. I'm waiting on the Euro but with all the pieces firmly now inside the denser/more physically realized sounding inputs, this hasn't trended favorable. Probably was time to move on earlier but in deference to desperation ( lol ). Anyway, the next possible notoriety in the pipeline is possible historic warmth during the week of Xmas. I know ... I know, not a notoriety some would incline to marvel. But, it is what it is. Unfortunately for the winter/snow/Currier&Ives settings enthusiasts, the following is more coherent than not. The indexes signal a warm period. This is suggested numerically, but is definitely than supported when noting the idiosyncrasies of the spatial layouts coming from the different clusters that has been emerging over the last couple of day's worth of cycles They've all been incrementally retrograding the -WPO ridge W, across the N. Pac. Meanwhile stopping/signaling any emerging positive non-hydrostatitc hgt anomalies amid the EPO domain region. Meanwhile, the PNA slipping negative through Jan 1. So with +EPO/-PNA, this does correlate well with a Pac NW River-type circulation mode, which then teleconnects downstream with the SE ridge response. This is uneasy, as we've been seeing this feature there - albeit suppress and compressed - despite the current cold pattern. When that compression relaxes in lieu of the above, that sort of implies a carte blanche in latitude with the SE aspect. I wouldn't get to blown away by amplitude for now. Although ... I must admit, I'm fighting the impression that warmth is like .. in a state of always being spring-loaded. When the cold relaxes, go the other way above "Climate anomalies" more frequently than we used to. That's also lurking in there. We'll see

You'll probably be right ... seasonal prediction's not my thing. I'm just basing that on part hunch, part knowledge related to -ENSOs of this bandwidth. But I'm also of the mind that ENSO is often too heavily weighted in the game. NP-GL-NE are modulated by polar index modes; I just see this year as having polar field abandonment issues later on. That leaves the continent S of ~45N vulnerable to early warmth. I'm thinking along the lines of how big spring warmth has a correlation to preceding Ninas. Not really the type of correlation the average engagement in here might accidentally stumble upon, much less ever pursue LOL. So experimental -

Wasn't a formal forecast but it was the right idea. Once the front winter onset terminates to inevitable warmup (whenever that happens ...) the question will become, does the aft half get back to business. My present thinking is still leaning on reduced hours and a lot of unscheduled signs flipped to 'Sorry we're closed' (lol). I would never suspend January. Not yet anyway (sniff). But sputtering into an early spring...? why not. One of these flower Februaries.

GFS won ?

I could see a NAM low developing and maybe clipping southern southeastern zones as it’s blowing up going out - NW bias notwithstanding. But then we fill back in with radar with inverted trough of some sort because… that’s a very deep polar core coming down at mid/upper levels that’s gonna generate a ton of instability, even in this cold air

Tough situation because the euro and the nam are not impossible while on the other hand, the background circumstantial synoptics really support the GFS solution. I’m leaning away from previous GFS total flat solutions. Whole system is kind of weak though so should a compromise take place that is still not good enough. In order to be more than just snow in the air we probably would need a NAM solution to be more correct out right

I’m leery of NAM’s fairly dependable NW bias with cyclogen near east coastal ….however that’s tendency. There are circumstances when that can be a good thing - particularly when there’s very intense llv thermal gradient along a steep frontal slope …elevating into increasing diffluence above. Dec 2005 is an example of that and superior resolution winning the model debate. Not an analog per se… But the higher resolved resolution might find the low level instability axis closer to that gradient, helping to generate intense UVM in that vicinity under which the cyclone generates

that is an amped solution no doubt

as we close in on 14th ... just be leery of the NAM NW bias/amplitude issues beyond 36 hours

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-hypertropical-climate-emerging-amazon-exposing.html

Fantasy range appears headed for the same CC apocalypse lol

right... 74 in Central Park, and 68 in BTV, too

LOL, the CFS from 00z is the best model of all for the 14th

If this suddenly arrives in the grids and has more physical forcing then those on-panels (above) might get 10 or 20% more meaningful to the region ( S-E). If less, the flatter versions there prevail.

right. you know, tracking that s/w's spacing back in the flow ..it's not even yet over the American owned sounding domain. I'm sure we're not exactly purchasing sounding data from Russia heh ...if they are even plumbing the skies over Siberia at all in the first place. Anyway, it's all based on assimilation. Although satellite sounding. Still, it's almost like the models assume something should be there in the flow in that spatial-temporal/geometric region, then propagating the assumption along ...at difficult to manage, ludicrous speed. Perhaps if there was better physically realized, direct sampling the handling might be more stable. I mean I suspect something like this is going on. Look at the Euro's last 4 cycles ... left to right, the most recent to 24 hours ago ( 6 hours apart). On off on off... That's been rather predictable just within that small range. Something perhaps added than missing every other run

yeah.... good way to describe. I sometimes liken as NAVGEM-ish too

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all. It's not one or the other, tho. It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too.

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me. Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs. More typically, that's a narrow band. If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn.

Maybe the inevitable bump north will for once help the cause

Hey wasn’t the 14ther the same one that the GFS put out 970mb blizzard for se zones about 5 or 6 days ago

Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything haha

the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely

that post reeked of self-soothing ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet.

yeah anyway. you can't trust guidance beyond 90 or so hours in this maelstrom of a hemisphere. that goes for anything

Haha... How about, cuz'n it was 360+ hours out 'nough said?