Typhoon Tip

12z CMC trended better for summer enthusiasts ... it's something.

39 to 60... Funny, it was 38 here this am when I crept down the stair. 'The house is chillier down here', apparently having finally forgotten the warmth the other day. Typically it takes 30 or so hours for the 'thermal edifice memory' to fade. I debated flipping the compressor to heat mode. It was just 59. I don't think it's improved much. Something about May-22nd pisses me off enough to stubbornly prevent myself. SO... ah, 61 ..I may as well just open the windows now and let the warm air in. Winning

Subjective reply here but ...I'd even go worse than 'mehhh' I'd say there's a decent chance that's a piece of shit, down right frustration that pushes one's patients closer to pulling the trigger on a relo These protracted continental folding patterns that cause the Maritime to try and fist it's way back SW all the way to Florida thing that's been (apparently) a paradoxical /counter-intuitive consequence of CC ...are getting unbearable. As an aside, I had a feeling we would have a problem with this, this particular latter spring this year...because of the way the persistent upstream seasonal pattern behavior was. Since last October, really... I showed the evidence of this every month during the cold season, Nov-Apr... despite those 3 or 4 months having averaged ( Globally ) in contention for 3rd warmest since Humanity became a geological force in Earth's history ( eh hm), the NE CONUS/SE Canada were persistently showing relative offset cooler than everywhere else. This was true whether we were technically above average those months, or not. It's like always coming in last? I still see vestigial markers for that still going on, tho harder to see it. It's some kind of fractal in the hemisphere that hasn't broken completely down... and having these back ward carving Maritime troughs like the current Euro and GFS are doing is some kind of "non-Markovian" bias playing out.

Could. Depends on what guidance one chooses. The Euro's the best; the GFS is worst. I just compared their respective ceiling RH levels. The Euro's ~ 6 hrs faster in the wholesale deep layer. Has a sharp back edge clearing in the 300 and 500 mb levels by 12z...with <= 50% in the 700mb by 18z going clear by 21 z. As is such...it's 2-m Ts are 68 to 72, but the 900 mb T argue that it's really warmer than that in the "real" 2-m ... The GFS, being slower with back edge not only retards any recovery but actually is still raining through 15z. It does finally clear in time to salvage the afternoon but the damage is done, and since this model is deliberately coded to seek out and destroy warm solutions ... it's thus succeeded damping heating potential just enough to get to it's goal of ruining the day. heh Seriously tho the 12z this morning will be intereseting to see if one collapses toward the other. After all, 72 hours away.

no ... they "make it sound" as though everyone in here must be needling neurotics

38 to 54 so far. Could actually be an impressive diurnal recovery day. 35+ sun dependent. We're flirting with the main b-c axis smudge running by to the south but if we can keep the rad counts > 70% say ...

It's also possible that pattern's being over amplified in the operational tenor - just speaking to as is... Set coffee down, let's see what the overnight's selling - oooh, dog shit. It's okay. 'Can always come on into this social-media's particular brand of bi-polarism to offset the implications of a Maritime retrograding vomit look.

There may be some subjectivity to it... If that's what people want, that's what they want ...blegh There's a coherent synoptic indication for a deep, possibly -2 SD back-door calving pattern there. It arrives with a front Wednesday...then gets re-enforced toward the weekend. There's even implications for elevation grapple in the latter frames. Not sure why this black and white, clear depiction isn't registering with ya'll but so be it. Personally, ... Monday and Tuesday look decent. I'll give you that. Beyond? gets douchy. The other thing, even if Mon/Tues are warm and more appealing, it's hard to psycho-babble enjoy that when you know the Labrador's dildo is getting all rosined up and ready for penetration right after.

Looks like shit after Wednesday

There was a time last week whence the charts looked like we would not be dealing with these nocturnal pieces of shit once the recent hot weather left.

It's not summer yet ... yesterday's charts, but the lingering affects bleed on -

heh...12z CMC transports 570 dm thickness to Pike on Mem Day, with a low going up the St L. That's a low lcl tvs look there.

Saturday'll be a lot like today is ... It's really only Sunday. Monday's unclear. Some guidance suppress the next roll up

Nah ... I was being an idiot. I don't know why I did not connect your post to what I just said - it was like a had a trans ischemic moment or something.

Oh I get it... sorry Ray. ha

I think Ray may actually be one of the aliens the current zeitgeist thinks walks amongst us? It would explain how that list of verbiage actually constructs a workable communication because it probably is lucid comprehension in the mind of a Zargon - As a software engineer with decades of experience no less, I cannot seem to decode this: "Let's station that there to add resistance"

uhmm ... can you help me parse out this sentence ^ ?

I'll tell ya tho ...whatever happens this weekend .. next week aside, until this crap stops, it ain't summer! not even close. I don't care wtf it was like the last 3 days ... not a summer hemisphere.

There are a few cases over the years whence something of sufficient magnitude penetrates the late spring/summer climate gauntlet enough to afflict a truly, perniciously shitty scenario. Just think back to the infamous July 4th weekend, 2020. 40s ( and I don't mean 'Kevin 40s'; real 40s), NE wind, rain. In fact, the May 1977 freak snow storm also fits into this sort of phenomenon - tho the snowing aspect might send some to feeling that's gotta be something extra double special and different but no ... Barring those few/rarer exceptions, after about ... ~ May 10th, shit outlooks tend to flop on the side of better when the days actually happen. I think this weekend may end up more in this ilk of inconvenience. We'll see. But I suspect Saturday is dry with some dim sun visible N of the Pike through early afternoon, then it gets more lorded over but still dry through evening. Sunday'll suck most likely... but given to the blocking that's setting up down stream, I could also see that correct a little drier as the day nears. Not sure what to make of Monday... Guidances are trying to create cold season meso lows near the Cape like it's December and trying to preserve a 31F dammed up icing scenario near FIT. No shame in the guidance about what time of year it is. Or, it's just an homage to the unusual blocking going on. That's odd btw. It's like there's a power house -NAO ridge pinning a Maritime trough in place... without having the ridge. The block appears to be non linear... like you just can't see it them, but they are there; forces are just spontaneously folding up a trough over the Maritime. It's stopping us from bouncing back very warm next week, too. Not sure how much of that is real.

We have a dry-line-like phenomenon that is part of our spring/summer climo in New England that isn't really very well recognized. I've noticed too many times then can be counted since moving to this region of the country ...decades ago, that when it is hot and humid and a corrective cool front is approaching, we gap dry air out ahead. The synoptic mechanism for this may not be too terribly different than what happens in W Tx... in principle. We have higher elevations W, check. Wind tendency to veer S of said higher elevations. Heating E also tends to trough the structure of flow subtly, which induces W d-slope component, W of the psuedo trough axis. The result manufactures a dry line along the trough's axis... The real front is still back up stream mid NY/PA. Not exactly the same but I see similarities there. The main difference is that whence the d-line forms here, it races E. That's why we get that deep blue sky with dry cough sear heat still 88 to 91 degrees N of the Pike like we did yesterday so often in that set up. You see anvil heads on the S horizon.

Which is precisely what took place prior to the previous El Nino ... a global warm burst led Which is precisely why I suspect we are seeing a similar burst taking place now Which is precisely what aggravates me - this is not garnering more attention. ...anyway... there seems to be something similar to a "non-Markovian" response in the global system. The analogy to help describe the effect of that, during a heat wave the day's rise in temperature often begins prior to the dawn - the mere approach of energy added to the system begins a measurable response. The system - in this case ... the air temperatures - begin to rise prior. Non-Markovian systemic response is a Quantum Mechanics concept where there appears to be a memory in the system based on a prior state. Such that stimulation doesn't have to work as hard to bring the state of the system back, as though it were first exposed. Something like this may be afoot. The end of the last NINA and entry into the +ENSO state in 2023 was alike the light prior to the dawn initiating the system to respond. Something similar may be taking place again, now. I remember hammering the significance ... that the ambit of science et al was not focused enough on the specific fact that such behavior was (apparently) unknowable and therefore, unanticipated. It is also not focused enough that the temperatures really did not settle back off that .3 to .4C burst.... ( this WAS anticipated to be the case and that did not happen). This GW/CC slow moving apocalypse could certainly happen in a series whip resets. We'll see where we are in 3 months...

Looks like a dry fropa Pike N, huh

blah blah blah.. !

Haha. Yeah, it’s pretty nondescript, huh? It’s actually in reference to the fully annotated and accredited post that I made yesterday I don’t know how many pages ago it is not more than a couple the depiction shows that the current exceedances into historic territory is even more so Source is from climate analyzer and those are the total global temperature means different years presented. The dark brown is 2026 and we are currently in the month of May in that graphical presentation

I think they’re missing a rather ominous thing there and that the replacement water in the western Pacific is a higher launching pad That’s causing … or could effect rather synergistically warmer scenario overall