Typhoon Tip

Right ...cuz Tolland's in a relative min/face smack slot there so you know yours must be balls on right

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8; the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more. The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now.

no idea... i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE. That much is true/shown with that. that's where it's use stops.

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all. I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA. That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude. You know what this reminds me of... high A1C. The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it. It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic. There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise. I see circumstantial metaphors all the time. Like, the AGW stuff? classic hypertension. My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons. To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up.. On Earth? Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR (Industrial Revolution).... It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer. In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in. We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER just havin' fun

well... we could also pop a decent event in the next 12 days and still averaged a fubar midriff season. haha. I mean, even dog years can't some times find a stray in heat

I'm personally very confident that the primary determining factor is in what the PNA does post the -WPO breakdown - spanning the 2-5th. If that emerges into a western N/A ridge we're probably going to set something up that's at minimum climo - which means higher ceiling event. If it doesn't ... we don't

You get the impression the GFS' recent topography is trying to get organized around the 6-7-8 dates but its not focusing. It's a bit early yet, yup. For now, buck shot with S/Ws through the medium and time span. There's some S/W spacing at 500 mb that looks innocuous and weak 5-6, followed by a more potent amplification nearing the 7-8 period, but the stuff in the 5-6 is just enough to interfere and limit what the 7-8 can do. So you end up with a whole lot of nothing. But that's just the operational GFS Meanwhile, in honestly the ensemble spatial synoptic cinemas looked like shit to me from overnight. I was hoping for more from those. Based on what could have been, when observing the erstwhile trends, no. They instead come up with this half commitment between a new -EPO, and a stressed low amplitude +PNA... in other words, garbage pattern. It's garbage because [ no one will read it anyway ] ... The collapse of the eastern hybrid -WPO is still high confidence spanning the first week. The models are having difficulty coming in with a coherent new paradigm after the fact. May need more time. If it ends up in some distorted piece of shit between two modes it's unclear a best what the f that will mean. Could be anything, but probably not winter storms because that means nothing is actually happening. If it ends up more committed to a +PNA then we'll emerge a system E. I said back in early Sept: early blocking and winter pattern followed by sputtering mid season, and then early spring. So far, nailed the first 1/3. We'll see where this goes.

actually HFD was in a local screw hole it looks like with "only" 16 inches...

That had a pretty steep gradient to it. I was in Acton and we managed 15". Boston was around 18 but up at UML in Lowell it was 10" I think if memory serves. But it was 2 foot or so in Hartford. I don't think S Vt saw much at all

Jan '96

It’s like symbolically the Earth is struggling to come up with ways to preserve itself from tipping over into a point of no return. Imagine if in 50 years science proves how close we were and didn’t know. Like we came that close to ending our ours and countless other species if it were not for that mere decimal AD response -

this was explained over two days, ad nauseam ... but, the audience just sits in wait with elastic strain for the first reason ( in this case ... HREF driven knee jerk upgrades) to suspend all constraint. Anything to load up the dopa syringe, at least excuse imagined LOL

How often do you see supercell embedded squall lines along 40 N latitude after Xmas..

I agree... but the "Pope's" caveats, albeit a bit salty and mean sounding ( haha ) are unfortunately with merit. Truth is, pattern structure is only A B comes when we start to see how the dailies start arriving and fit into it. Is it going to be a 'warm variant', or is there cold available... Cold when counts... etc. Yes, climo ... but ( and I have no compunctions in admitting this - ) climo is fucked now in mid winters. That much is just true whether anyone else admits and/or has a problem with that or not. That's the beauty of actual statistics, and, science that is backed by the actual statistics: it's true whether one is in the conversation or not.

and I tried to keep that brief! LOL Btw, H.A. are initials. Heather Archembault released a Master's thesis back in the early 1990s that discussed the restoring of +PNA lending to enhancing precipitation over eastern North America.

I do wonder ... but, in the spirit of the Holiday and giving I'm restraining myself a bit. LOL I mean, when I look the ending frames of the ens means it's an odd sort of appeal. Almost alike a warm +PNA with these non-hydrostats not indicating any/very little negative anomaly over the continent, despite a +PNA curvi-linear footprint. This is the end of the GEFs but the EPS and GEPs have/are in the same general attitude. In the spirit of fairness... the pattern change across the hemisphere is much, much higher confidence than anything specific in terms of events that come because of it. In addition to that, I've been noticing for the past several year's worth of seasons, whenever the mode is definitely cold enough ... it's too compressed. When the flow relaxes such that there is less overall negative interference, it's too warm. It's been hard to achieve that middle range in there when there's conserved kinematics in the S/W scale, while being cold enough. ...for whatever reason, notwithstanding It doesn't mean it's impossible but it's been a very real observation, a leitmotif. So we'll see where this goes. The flow is certainly relaxing out there... less compression. More conserved in the S/W scale... there are no guarantees the cold provision will be in play.

I think we need to consider the 6-7-8 a pattern arrival event That's going to be an H.A. implication ( I suspect ...) as nearing the 5th, all ens systems agree in the rather abrupt guard change in the N. Pacific. The entire circulation medium out there essentially product reverses, like on a temporal dime when considering planetary wave distribution. Really fast... intra-weekly time scale. If that happens - first of all - that's likely to cause increased model performance problems. Furthermore, the implications of sending a such a violent signal down stream, the western N/A ridge will be in a period whence the 'correction vector' will be pointed toward more amplitude - hint, I think more than is currently in the cinemas. It's a wave # number/distribution argument. When you supplant the regions N of HA with as much total height anomaly reversal (lowering in this case) like these charts below are showing ( using the GEPs but they are all doing it ), there will physically necessitate height growth into western North America... More than 50% ...closer to 80% of this mass field alteration takes place in < 5 days. I would be reeeally leery about any depictions down stream over eastern N/A. And by that, more amplitude is actually favored. When I say correction vector that's just an expression I use to mean corrections that are inevitable in the guidance will likely lean in a given direction... That all times around the 7th for some sort of emergence E of the nations midriff longitudes.

satisfied with WWA ... just the grease factor is enough to send SUVs pirouetting down highways while the entitled arrogance at the wheel is all confused how their assumption-mobile is doing that. I seriously saw this once. Maybe some kind of overpass web-cam situated overlooking stretch of Dallas highway ... with an assortment of SUVs parked at angles in the median and shoulder, while egular sedans at least limped slowly through in curiosity before going about their way. Next SUV comes into the frame spinning around ...smash! Next Toyota Corrola slips through the scene ... This went until the video clip ended where SUVs blithely spun out of control through and/or into the carnage, while the supposedly less safer, materialistically humbler types, traversed the icy risk like a cat tip-toes along a narrow fence line - even if a paw slipped a little, they regrouped and spanned the distance unscathed. One of my favorite things in life LOL is watching presumptions fail I never got a full explanation but ...it seems to me, 3.5 ton 60k SUVs might be overrated in popularity

I'm telling you the synoptic limitations that are in the actual models. The interpretation after the fact, not sure where this 'I gotta bad feeling ...' trope is necessitated from. Using your worlds, we can't even support the doom interpretation: 'even if 50%' ...well, 50% of what. .9 accretion? that's arithmetically only .45, less than standard warning ice. Ice "storms" don't typically manifest the way this is modeled for a reason. The event timing is too fast. Falls rates may be moderate, and accretion efficient for a time, but it's moving off way, waaay faster than climo icestorm typology. Yeah, 2007 ... but that was a unique situation, and it was also longer than this will be, too. As icing sets up, it release latent heat of phase change; there need be a constant lower DP source to offset this physical process of fixing. There is no source for that. EDIT, ah, I just saw you responded.

No need to... the cold you are referring is particularly low level, and not substantive in the mass loading into this system's preceding environment. The "real" synoptic cold is still low ... 22-ish with DPs of 10 or so, but with such limited +PP ( positive pressure pattern (high pressure) ) situated N, a 20 to 25 kt sustained 925 mb low arriving flow will change the setting very quickly. These metrical limitations on this system are not going anywhere. They are a predicament/detriment to this system's ability to maintain froze or freezing profiles. Lemme tell you something ... in late January 1994, we awoke one faithful morning to Winter Weather Advisory headlines in place, a temperature of 9 F on the weather lab's tele, and periodic flurries/grits coming down in the dim blue light of dawn throughout the Merrimack Valley. Deep winter was in place. By noon, sleet pellets had broken out, there was a south breeze, and the temperature had risen to 23 or so... By 3 pm, it was 31 F with steady freezing rain. By 6pm, it was 53 F with wildly swaying tree tops, and ice fog rolling off the snow pack and piles. By 9pm, it was 61 F with 55 mph gusts. Student around the campus had spilled into the commons and down town streets of Lowell's pubs, in short sleeve shirts that seemed to finalize a defiant mockery of winter... 9 to 61, in 12 hours. All because a cutter went through BUF-ish, and had no antecedent +PP to protect from the arriving WCB ( warm conveyor belt ) -related wind field. Now, this situation doesn't have a 65 kt 920 mb jet core fire hosing at it...no. But, the 40 kts with no leading surface high is going to still reverse the tables and do it probably at a speed that comes to some surprise to people, even in the valleys.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ... I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ...aka advisory should do it.. I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

probably different reasoning vectors converging on the same idea... Breakdown of the Pac and introduction of +PNA is an H.A. signal in the gross sense but we're seeing it already in ensemble clusters The EPS with an impressive spread at 240+ hours is getting above the 95th %tile for this long of a lead. The GEFs still lag tho

Not speaking with confidence to any snow this that or the other ... but a significant event, Jan 6-7-8, has legs.

Huh? welcome to the internet, I guess. wtf