Typhoon Tip

Yeah, I’m not talking about the run itself. I’m just what my thoughts are on that period.

I’d call it an average winter regression I also suspect it’ll probably be not as amplified as that too. Also probably something like five days that sort of fades… That’s going by the indices, but deamplifying some partial has both an established precedence in mid and long range models, as well as fitting the climate of sun getting hotter. But yeah, folks are looking for a last hurrah I would look at that five day window.

+That bold statement of yours is the very reason the world should be very afraid. It still does not resonate enough with people that enormity of raising an entire planetary system, air, sea and air-sea coupled, unilaterally, by a whole degree C, over span of time that is virtually instant in geological scales - but frankly, disturbingly fast even for the single life span of a human being. If that can happen without warning and those zero extrapolated expectation, ... good luck

An indirect way to tell that your above normal temperatures might be these MOS products. It seems the MAV is whack? it's got KBDL-FIT-ASH all in 25-ish for a low tonight. With 45 to 50 F diurnals tomorrow. That seems a little off

It's that window in the indices there... pretty sweet looking solution.

Melt and mud season... Agreed. We lost something like 6" since yesterday just eye-balling. It'd say we have about 7 of granular corn snow left. It's possible we've eradicated enough snow in the next 48 hours to allow Tuesday to not be held down from that factor.

If there's a SSW or S wind flow off the Bite waters there's going to be cooling modulation, however the model's likely too cold to begin with... It's like raise that 7 to 10 F.

Hard to say on that ... Will seems to think we get 10 days of favorable looks out this post Ides pattern but I'm not as confident. Could be. It seems this week's about getting rid of the snow pack ( seasonal recession)... Then yeah, we could certainly re-brick the top soil for a gif. I think we're good for at least that much before truly escaping. But without the geographic pan-dimensional cryosphere helping to continue the enabling party, the sun will begin to both modulate the pattern pretty fast going forward, as well as mangle the days and bust most guidance the standard 2 or 3 ticks too cold as we approach and exceed the Equinox. The early April bowling season is in place every year so that's separate. But the generalized pattern foot is entering higher variability and lesser dependency due to seasonal forcing. But, this +PNA aspect in the index prognostics is not 10 days long. It's a 3 day quiet and quick amplitude. Even the L/W cinema in the guidance is rotating that axis through rather quickly. I'm actually already seeing signatures of rapider recovery back to a flat -PNAP structure out there post the 20th. That's been the tenor of the last 20 years - lessening dependability of index outlooks. Lessening time spans of pattern residence. It's not just the modeling stochastics. The indexes themselves, which are in theory based upon the larger super synoptic mass field and thus should modulate slower than the dailies, seem to be modulating faster than that theory. I could be the technology itself, sort of too much of a good thing without being enough of a good thing... so they create their own error. Or, it's something with CC that makes things more top heavy (latitude) so we're rolling Rossby signature faster. It's an interesting study. But that also means the +PNA --> +PNAP expression could host an event in that 15-19th period, and just not be very well represented ( at this time) in the standard version. I'm aware the AI's are less bashful there. Possible. That's the way these next two weeks look to me as of Sunday morning over -caffeinating

Yeah some perhaps positive feedback there but ... not sure it's enough to offset a white cocained earth. ha... It's a micro feedback science thing, right. anyway, I'm not sure if we don't pancake too. may have to go through an hour or so of that while we cycle through the first boundary layer rotation. yeah but wow, it feels like pithier warmth ... Sun's out here in the last moments so we'll see if the ceiling holds. It's 53/49.

Definitive back edge is now more evident on higher res vis loop moving at CC compressed hyper velocity ... yikes (lol). Skies will probably go partly sunny with mostly sunny moments over the next hours, E of the Berkshires. Over the western Hills ... Greens and Whites likely to deal with cap b.s. We're inverted, but there are scud strata filaments racing between the mid and upper level band and the inversion, so there's definitely a breeze off the deck. This will be the end of the inversion today as when the sun goes to work ( and it's quite strong now), the two will finally say goodbye to that nasty nasty high pressure/BD's lingering static clinging cold along the coastal plain. Soundings would allow 60s easily, but with the snow pack there's probably a lot of variability ... Kind of like a hockey stadium, with 40 over the melting plains, and 60 walking down towns.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/07/climate/warmest-winter-us-east-versus-west

Muah hahahahahaaaaa

A long time ago there was a poster form NWS ... his name was Ekster He told me that the NAM has winter algorithms and that they were "not yet switched to warm season" once when we were looking at the warm early spring possibility. I wonder if that's still true. Granted we have a snow pack but ... we'll probably be mixing better tomorrow whence we'll be mad melting. I think it's fascinating if people let it ... to test how warmth performs running up over this glacier. lol

It is however precarious ... any time you have polar air amassing into Ontario, with > sfc pressure than what is in our area/SE ... that's teetering with correcting that boundary S. But the model run itself was not "lost of Tuesday's warmth"

This is 21z Tues afternoon on the NAM I'm not seeing a raging argument here for a warm failure on that day ( relative to climo and previous ideas -)

I set that to be 1951 -2020 just to be clear. I didn't say "below" anything. Not sure what you mean there. It was in regards to this tenor that this winter's somehow 'more like it's supposed to be'. Not sure that's wise. Too much data and actual math ( geophysical ) to suggest that is the case.

We still live a world that has been, and continues to consummately over-perform warmth (per verification). We just have been persistently given no excuse not to for perhaps 4 straight months. Today, with it's dense ceiling of solar blocked strata capping us drowned in left over polar inversion, definitely does not represent an excuse to go warm, either. If we bust the inversion, you will go above machine guidance and eat reality by force. Short sleeve shirt appeal over a snow pack occurs once this wiggly red feature wobbles through our region by tomorrow We haven't had a day of 64 F in so long. I sense that some posters doubt it can? some kind of acclimation bias. It's funny how willing folks are to think of this as back to normal winter and referencing climate like this is 1992. Reality check: this was the anomaly. Not the other way around. That's not coming back and you are wrong to perceive matters that way. Don't be fooled by this blue blob of fortunate.

Today's like day one of melt week, 2026 Yeah, we've put up a couple of 52ies recently, but those were dry DP, light wind, sparing the loss rates. Looking at 55 to 65 afternoons with more blow torch breezes ... even some over 40 DPs, lasting until that cold break toward a week from now. Actually looks like the 70 day may happen on Tuesday after all. I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesday morning on the way to work, people notice that field they pass everyday is no longer just planar white. I still have an issue with 70 over the fields but I've seen this in spring where cold drain out of the wooded areas is juxtaposing vividly against air that was not being protected. I agree with the sentiment that there's a window of interest in the 15-18th date range. It's not clear what that will mean.. .in fact, almost anything is possible from a Lakes cutter to a coastal, but there is a transient impressive +PNA bounce through that period.

Forget it ... I've struggled almost in vein to articulate this sort of salience. Crickets. Doesn't get learned. And it can't Because of the whole dopa addict thing? blocks those neuro-pathways. I'm certain of it. It's no different than going into a Methadone clinic and instructing patients to not crave or scheme how to get heroin. The drug rewires the brain such that it no longer has any neurological pathways capable of learning how to stop - and that blocks any kind of expectation that doesn't include getting high. LOL ... somethin like that

heh, we gain an hour of light in the evening tomorrow. Days are getting longer enough that I think moving the clocks won't plunge the morning's back into darkness as the daylight's coming up sufficiently early to absorb that clock move. Of course, what use does an hour of extra light in the evenings actually provide if we continue being steeped in this shitty-shits degrees and soothing mist bs. This "event" ( or lack there off ...) yesterday was really not the material aspect for the period, it was this big high and what's turned out to be an inCREdible pernicious BD air mass...It's slammed all the way down past the VA Capes. The high pressure that set this vomit into motion's long gone and smearing it's guts out across the N Atlantic, yet the front keeps rollin S down there. We are utterly decouple from the deep layer tropospheric synoptics as today's -12C inversion between the sfc and 2500 feet coherently argues. Anyone still living New England right now that has a choice to leave, yet hasn't, must be suffering a masochistic psychosis

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DoVFtUPa4/

I think the point of the article is to convey the data, not to assess causality - just for clarity. They are pretty explicit in saying so. This last decade's d(warm) was .15 deg C > than the previous fairly stable .2 C increase spanning 45 years. I then went on to offer that the climate curve in pure temperature is a 'serrated' course... 2023/2024 may merely have been a particularly sloped year. The previous delta could certainly return. But ... new accelerations may also take place. Acceleration was proven unpredictable leading 2023. What if this happens over the next year... ? Keep in mind, the acceleration actually took off prior to that warm ENSO event. I don't disagree that 10 years in a vacuum isn't very useful to describe the complexities of an entire planetary system- that's quite intuitive. However, technically the study was 55 years: 10 years vs the previous 45. It doesn't refute the fact of the numbers. As to it's significance, that remains to be seen.

OH I think the storm track's shifted N, frankly. I won't have hurt feelings if I turn out wrong there, but I have the equinox, climatology, and CC on my side here. Look at the sfc cinema on that run. It's one transit after the other down the 50th parallel of the continent. They'll drape strong cold fronts, sure. And probably some labored warm fronts ahead that drizzle at 34F. ...all keeping us from being "warm warm" like you're intimating, but I'm sort of leaning on the first step out being a coherent retreat of the storm track. We can still get a wintry event via anomaly relative to that, or bowling season related, etc.. but those are by def fleeting.

The last two days worth of GFS operational cycles have been doing this sort of look out there in the la-la range ... new leitmotif. I've found in the spring ( and autumn with cold looks, too - works in either direction), these longer range charts might actually carry some principle value, not daily or per se prognostic skill. Those are two different things. One's conceptualizing a synoptic potential at longer leads, the other is deterministic. Anyway, this next week's "failing" warm up was really exposed similarly to this above... when it too was a long lead. But idiosyncratics about the late winter/early spring hemisphere emerged to suppress, more so then corrected. In other words, I wonder it the lower latitude planetary wave distribution (which has longer residence ) is actually a warm HA - cool Baja - warm SW Atlantic basin... It would be sitting in wait for those "idiosyncractics" of late winter and early spring to pull away...