Typhoon Tip

We're getting some 'giga' movements from the ens means at large scales. It's sort of yawing between a -EPO and a -EPO/+PNA hybrid. The -EPO version is the giant warmup ... The operational GFS had a hard-on and went a bit ludicrously extreme at 12z. The latter type is colder, faster pattern change but at varying speed/unknown. Not sure really which way to go with that. Like I said this morning and still maintain, we really need to get through this week's demolition of the N. Pacific ridge before we can really truly stop getting head-gamed.

The ensemble read off the EPS is a winter storm of sorts signal around 14th followed by a cold intrusion. Obviously at 2 weeks lead that highly subject to change - but the 12z read...

Actually … no ensembles system in the pantheon of the technology has ever performed very well with that particular index domain. … it’s more apt to say they’ve all been fucked since the get-go and it doesn’t appear the custodians of the technology know what to do about it

It’s yo-yoing at large scales tomorrow we could be right back where we were yesterday

heh, I actually knew that when i responded but i'm getting play-by-play fatigue. haha

Yeah GFS has something there, too

Looks like the recent GFS runs are solidly hammering that idea too - LOL (...it's garbage ... we hope. ' just havin fun with it)

I've been in a step back orbital perspective on matters as of late. It's almost like these mid winter dildo smacks upside the head are really like taking a canonical January thaw, and stretching to 5 weeks. Almost symbolically... but could be argued in more practical reality, too. I can't ...well, I'm not prepared at this time to say that's en route again, but we're staring down the barrel of a warm up that seems to be getting sturdier in the guidance, while planning ... perhaps "hoping" being more apropos, that it is prelude to a -EPO--> +PNA correction later on. But having the last 9 or 10 seasons of fuck ups in mind isn't lending much confidence that all that will really sort out in our favor. In fact, the GFS out to 360+ hours is trying to skip the latter correction aspect - trying to. I dunno, you tell me. I'm fighting the urge to bring up the January sputtering prediction I made back in September. Admittedly, it was half glib at the time. Sort based upon (last decade of mid seasons)+(CC sarcasm)/2 ... so doesn't really count as 'in the race' with other more constructive seasonal forecast ... LOL no. but still, what the fuck I know I come off as heavy handed about y'all taking too much emotional/dopa hit reliance on this shit, but in all honesty, I don't want sit through the next 67 days of no reason to check in at all. ha

actualy only 4half days

Jan 6 attempted a return in the operation GFS/12z Not in the same form as before, and in fact the contributing aspects are probably not even born of the same source considering the mangling that's taken place within the guidance cinemas over the last 3 or 4 days,... but, some sort of WAA snows get cooked up there, nonetheless. It's only 5.5 days away. Fire up a thread! ahha

This is a great point ... General reader: perspectives seem to be biased at the scalar extremes, which escapes better representation of the total reality - or risks doing so. But in here, in this social media engagement, the collective memory or impression ( if either of these even matter HAHA), are often then wrong when 2 or 5 years down the road and people are siting them to make their x-y-z comparisons. I don't know how/what the numbers are in reality but, suppose we get 52/40 some 10 days in a row, and it ends up pushing January into the top 5 butt-bonedest January's of all time. But, next year it's 72 for two days.... guaranteed that's the bigger of the two. Wrong!

mm actually, resonance - which persistence is ... regardless of causality - can also be a feedback/positively reinforced by the CC. Resonance then gives rise to synergy - outcome more than than sum of moving parts..etc. "Exceeding" is still causally linked if that's the case. Longer diatribe: CC is speeding up the basal velocities of global gradient latitudes. This is so because ... even though the polar regions are warming faster than the tropics during the last 20 .. 30 years, the cooling seasons still impose a net +d(G). In practical terms, that means the cold side of the jet stream latitudes are more extreme than the warm sides - more so comparing to prior climate generations. That increases the thermal wind vector, which is balanced by the Coriolis parameter, and viola! there is higher wind velocities in the gradient latitudes comparing 50 years ago. This is measured/empirically shown. Not only by atmospheric physics ..but in every day usage. Ex, more air-land speed records have been set ( airline traffic) when traveling west to east...etc during these recent decades. This increased velocity is going to alter the pattern footprints, because velocity of the medium is in the wave physical equations. It's just physically avoidable. Predicting precisely how is a HUGE problem. For one, in the summers ... there are these resonances that set up and create these synergistic heat domes and regions end up blazing hotter than the modeling suggested they really would- just one example. Much to the counter-intuitive bemusement of the common person, these particularly deep, gelid visits by SPVs to mid latitudes in winters are actually causally linked to this just the same. It's not just heat in the summers... Not only that, it's effecting the transition seasons, too, with larger than normal variance in in temperature anomalies during seasons that inherently come with bigger transition differentials ('transition seasons') CC does change the circulation behavior at planetary scales. This should be more observable in the winter hemispheres, but ... there's room for science in the matter. It's probably era- Transitional during this era of CC. If CC were to continue unabated ... speculation would raise polar realms enough to where the distant future states relax the ambient gradients; the basal velocities slow. What, 70 ..120 years? Or sooner. How may 2023 burst in global temperatures are in the future, and when? The fact that 2023 happened with 0 leading predictions, is pretty damming to the climate forecast community. I mean ... not casting doubt or blame or shade for the their efforts, but the bottom line is ... no one saw that coming. And, that pertinently rattles confidences and makes one wonder if these are going to happen again. If so ...the future CC curve is not linear. Which is kind of duh in a philosophical approach anyway, because the last 20 .. 30 years have graphically shown that this hasn't been linear, anyway. It comes down to acceleration - what is that rate going to be. But I'm digressing...

Yeah, I guess after the 12th ...but the timing of all this isn't set either. it's just where the indicators look now... again again again, we need to get on the other side of the Pac change window

Thaaaat's not what I said. Not speaking for Will... I precisely stated that cold --> warm up of unknown magnitude --> colder pattern works S-E via the natural -EPO evolution. That's the ultra compressed version of all those tl;drs from yesterday from me. If that interim warm-up ends up being muted ... then 'not much at all' will be correct, but I didn't actually assert that's what's going to happen. It's still possible that we spend a couple of days above normal, perhaps exotically so, if you believe some of these recent GFS/ens members. In fact, some indicators overnight attempted to go back to the more +PNA look as opposed to the -EPO. Yesterday, all ens means moved en masse toward the -EPO. The new EPS mean is splitting. The only thing we know of higher confidence ( still ) is the breakdown of the mid Pacific ridging/height anomaly, which has been transitively ...well, fucking up the works. It's been conducting the music into a cold melody over the continent over the last several weeks, but the rhythm of the wave spacing has been negatively interfering with storm system genesis. etc... not going over that again. Seeing that breakdown will be a good thing ... in theory. I mean, if we're juggling between -EPO (standard variant) vs +PNA from these ens visions, neither is climo "bad" for winter event enthusiasts. So we got good problems in that sense. But, we have to get on the other side of ~ the 5th-7th, first. By the 8th, the Pacific mode change has completed and the ens systems will prooobably have a better handle on what's happening on the other side of the pattern change door by then. Speculation: It still looks cold above STL-DCA latitudes between the 10th and 20th. If the +PNA ends up more reality than the big -EPO, we may conjure an event entering said PNA phase. If it's the EPO version, we may go (unknown) warm first, than eventually/have to wait that out.

There should be some beef squalls along that cold front

But like I said… Supply a radical enough reconstruction of those flow components and then it’ll happen maybe Nothing is impossible

Is that a circulation mode analog? The problem isn’t the chunk move. It’s how can that happen with a Northwest of Southeast moving rampaging jet, and the progressive ridge, which is bulging east across the country at the same time It’s not a matter of whether it’s happening in history it’s a matter whether it can now

Still … one would have to be a nimrod not to be impressed with that anomaly

Different scenario…

Not at this range and not that much

It needs a chunk move. Which would take a pretty radical change in the azimuth of the N stream … I guess it could happen but it’s difficult to see how.

The suppressed Bermuda ridge is likely to introduce some challenges if/when it is there and this affair up in the -EPO --> N/A deep SPV sets up, but excluding that for a moment.. this, to me, has fundamentally more potential for winter event genesis. oh ... it's the la-la range GEFs, but they all have this look fwiw

You were NAO'ed Heh... 'not the first time anyone was, whence seemingly waiting on the commitment by the analyst, that's when NAO fails to show up. Intention? Charlie Browning - Personally I find the NAO to be the biggest most stochastic POS voodoo index that was ever defined. The problems in using it are textured and varied. Firstly, ( I'm not intending to lecture you; I'm just raging at the moment lol) is that it is actually created by the dispersion mechanics downstream off the Pacific -N/A wholesale wave signature. [ Enter pita flop computing power here ...] and viola! the NAO emerges in the guidance... Secondly, there are two behaviors, which is a major pain in the ass. The first is the obvious: blocking, identified by the geometry of the heights up there in the NAO geographic domain space. The other form is insidiously hidden - the hemispheric logistics around the region act as though that geometric identity must be there, when one is not very obviously defined... See, this is an indirect proof that the forcing actual coming from somewhere else. Whether heights bloom within that behavior or not, that's when the EOF calculations finally give negative numerical values. Anyway, so the NAO is so badly handled ...or, so much worse so than the other indexes, because it is at the flop end of the Pacific hose, where is complexity is also then exacerbated further by interaction across the N/A continent. In fact, it's probably more useful for when it does materialize on a D10 chart up there, to just correlate it to a period of uncertainty from the Pacific -

Yeah ... true, and also, a large number of the engagers in here really probably don't have enough background if not capacity to follow along with this stuff. Have to be patient. So anyway, it's a pretty text book -EPO thrust and then 5 or so day evolution after the fact into either a quasi PNA or outrightly so ... whence the cold comes S-E the rest of the way to the coast out there. As discussed ad nauseam ...yeah it may warm up during that 5 days, but that's not the end game. In theory...heh As far as events when it gets more after that ... I dunno. Hopefully the flow doesn't end up too compressed through all that. It could just be warm, then cold then nada

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from