Typhoon Tip

Yeah... it's the yellow shit. I think that's pine ?

Anyone that's under a CB negative CAPE is probably getting a 1/2" or more in 20 minutes, tho. Regionally? doesn't look like a soaker for now but there's a couple days

ha... no one is "using" anything. understood - that's not the purpose of the post.

Toasty Euro run

Or at least if/when there are post BDs or N-door boundaries regionally we're going back to 72s instead of 49s yup.

rare satellite image

ICONoclastic model's settin up a blistering heat wave June 9-10-11 ... just like the original non-linear telecon signal had from last week. This is the 12z next Wed ... notice 570+dm with lee side trough? this is 90+ incoming

plus...dogs deliberately seek out and dive slide through garbage ...like dirty diaper and moldy mack and cheese mixed with cigar ash dumpster phage ...

Op ed. I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh. But what's ironic is that there are fantastic summer events to track - this is after all a weather-related forum ( yeah...right). The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. To that I would suggest the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting. But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well. We've had slow summers. Sure. This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, but we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer. More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter. Although lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic. I guess partly I'm driving at the notion that something else is motivating there. This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen. To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness. Okay. To each is his or her own. One's preference is one's preference. And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens. Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a more revealing female population ... Disc Golf, standard Golf, boogie-boarding in the surf. None of which can happen between January 5th and that teleconnector maybe-ims for late month that gets can-kicked to February 17th, and ends up screwing someone for some reason. But at least it's dark by 4pm

wtf... Firing Pelley from 60-Minutes is like dynamiting the face of Lincoln off the Rushmore of news journalism. CBS? no shit - You know, this, coming so soon after the Colbert debacle. And that bullshit with Trump instructing them a couple years ago and they all but happily obliged. All of which stinks to high heaven of an organization where you 'say what we want you to say else we'll fascistly wield our will' In an idealistic vision, civility en masse boycotts anything that has CBS finger prints anywhere around it or on it, and points their TV and devices toward different antennas. Let CBS' valuations deteriorate right before the kuntitudinal eyes of the organization's leader. It just folds. That's a flux of unemployment I would be just tickled pink in joy knowing was happening. Then, set some other news/entertainment organization journalism on an ongoing investigation into the lives of all those upper management and exec ranked assholes, showcasing their travails in trying to find a toe-hold on anything in a society that knows what they're really about. Welcome to the deserved sewer of society you pieces of shit.

Heh... reminds me of that meme years ago. Very large aquarium wall, 4" of transparent aluminum glass on the other side of which this giant fluffy polar bear yawns and lazily slides off some prop for rocks and submerges itself in water sloshing like a fat kid in a bath tub. The crowd of 4 to 8 year old onlookers together with their skyscraper moms and dads are in unison, oohs and ah chorus at this specter... Just then, the bear's paddling front feet make it look deliberate as it rotated it's equally giant ass axis pointed directly down the collective line of sight of said crowd, whereby it proceeded to all but instantly transform the clarity of the water into this putrid colored anal pall. Beige ass vomit burst forth like that blow out scene in the film "Deep Horizon"... looked remarkably similar in color to that image above. The chorus of ooh and ahs resolved the note of their song in something like ewes and oophs. Put that in your children's book. Welcome to nature, kid -

dunno. I'd a just deferred to AI on that one. Asked it to remove feces smear and re-render it before going for splendor in social media

If it were not for that plume of ass sludge out of a sewage pipe failure out there it's real cradle of life -

This summer looks like it's trying to be 75 or 78F but either way

GFS is fighting warmth like it does ever spring and early summer. This recent series' of runs' technique was to pinch off the bottom the exiting trough into all of a 576 dm height low and act like that's sufficient to drive near gale east chilly flow into the M/A and commensurately destroying the sensible weather up and down the EC all next week. It's been showing all kinds of continuity issues with that scenario tho. 18z yesterday it pinched off almost no planetary scaled turd. Yet a coffee break in model time later it goes and stinks up the whole works with this bs at 00z. We'll see. Both the Euro, CMC and the ensembles of all three, EPS,GEPS and GEFs are less with that ordeal. The only thing going for the GFS typical fuck it up for everyone by inventing physical math is that gee ... this spring has seemed to succeed at doing that anyway. Actually in fairness the 06z GFS was less shitty looking. But therein is an example of continuity issues. I tend to think the GFS is over sensitive to curvature in the flow. In both directions - perhaps an emergent property if not error of it's 'physical machinery'. It seems to conserve too much when troughs are lifting out, and does these nip and tuck jobs too often. On the other end, it ablates the latitude of ridges by fire-hosing polar jet velocities over top of the curvature like a stump grinder. It's subtle with this overall, but it's just enough to be annoying and one cannot unsee it once they get a sense of it happening with this model.

that would be a fascinating look on the 00z operational Euro if it were not 340 hours out ... quasi Bahama Blue pattern with a TC rollin' up inside the conveyor.

From the looks of upstream tomorrow's fucked too. Mostly cloudy and mild weee I dunno. Maybe the shit streak finally succumbs to DVM lol

here it is...300 mb

Models either missed this 300 mb shit streak or it was just not noticed but it's been completely slam shut ceilings here right during the big warming hours of the day, so ...yet again, 2026 finding the coldest way to weasel bust

Not sure ... For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates: "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies." I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product. In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register. They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access. They do have a contact option. The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over.

those aren't scalar anomaly ranges ... They're probabilities for being above(below) at all... scaled.

hard to do that in winter

Not bad...this might actually be my steepest (delta slope) recovery I've seen in some time. 41 at 5:40am and just 66 at 8:35 over here at the Oxbo and Shirley NWS sites represent 25 F in 2:55 hours

Just thought to clarify: should today's 79 (probably 80, let's get real), and then 83 to 88's thru Saturday verify, that would be solidly above normal - nocturnal lows notwithstanding, but their progged to be 55+ in the machine numbers. Come to think of it, if we get 4-nights back to back of 55-60s, that might be the warmest nocturnal streak since last autumn. I realize you're lighthearted ribbin back and forth, but he was responding to Scott's "no prolonged heat". There is no"re"ribbing him on the same accord - that doesn't count LOL. Seriously tho, I suspect you're neighborhood/township region is a cold climo relative to the region. There are those areas that tend to be warmer owners, there are those that tend to be the cooler in any given scenario. You are the latter? I would not use you're point and click - if that is the case ... - to characterize expectation for any week that includes BDL/FIT/ASH/MHT/Lowel to Lawrence, which typically do well in light wind high sun recovery scenarios in Junes