Typhoon Tip

Borderline big heat tomorrow. As expected ... headlines now flying. Prooobably 94 to 95? 95+ is sort of the "unofficial" "big heat" criteria. But it probably really should go by the HI values.

Chuck, I just dropped this over in the ENSO thread because I believe that's relevant -

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state.

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics.

I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance. All but compelled to add 2 point bump out of respect for superb heating combined with "non-Markovian" feedback, no less.

Welp .. 75 here as we pass into the 10am hr "10 after 10" puts us in the 80s ... but being on the north side of a sag front that has observable site winds coming off the ocean. That says no...but, temps rising unimpeded as trend says yes. Minor competing signals there. I guess the wind being very light, in the 10kt range may not be enough. It's like you could work it out mathematically. Determine what the necessary E wind strength has to be during the solar max in order to overcome diurnal heating. I bet 10 kts isn't enough? Something like that. The shallow boundary is already apparently coming back as a warm front, according to WPC ... the previous update had this as a cool front where it is now warm in CT. I guess the late high T surge idea of the NAM has legs.

Ho man. The wonder of weather, snuffed out. we joke but there will be a weather modification future. It's just too intuitively easy to see that. Quantum Computing is basically going to expose at some point, how to force "the quantum computing of the cosmos" - so to speak. That is, in any future where human tech does not stop the the future from taking place before getting there - oh yeah..that. I mean just recall synoptic II and learning how/why chaos will never allow modeling to be very precise beyond whenever. Can't stop the spontaneity of emerging future feedbacks blah blah the prediction unavoidably gets corrupted. Well, the easy antidote is ...don't try to predict that then. Control it. It seems quantum scale perturbation is a realm where actual Quantum Computing might be uniquely adapted to handle. Control being apropos. Seems that way anywho

About as many times as it actually happens j/k. yeah who knows. There's nothing wrong with commiserating the modles

...that'd be an interesting war -tech. Imagine a distant future world where weather modification replaced forecasting. Other than ruining this pastime ... maybe such a realm would include the WMD, Weather Machine of Destruction that throws big storm bombs at enemies. I dunno, where the hell is the end goal of Quantum Computing and what does that look like?

Not that you asked 'how' but what's happening in those guidance formulations is something more akin to the 00z GFS' aggressively suppressed version overall. BN, but dry results. Which ...I'd take that as a compromise over a wet dildo flogging as though the Canadian and European forecast offices conspired and directly parameterized their models to specifically target and destroy Mem Weekend for joy destruction. haha I guess for now... solace in the notion that it's 120+ hours away so maybe the shits models runs'll change.

Yeah and I'm not predicting a torpedoed summer per se. Just annoyed by it, because I don't like BN weather in late spring and summer heh ... kind of a snarky post. But it does appear the polar jet is unusually strong and guiding the pattern still as we get pretty damn late in the spring here. If I were capable of completely divorcing personal druthers from it all, I guess it's gotta be interesting to have that taking place in +d(Climate)

Something's off... these higher res model types look too warm given Esty beasties off glacial guts water. They're all doing this sort of look by 18z tho. huh

Wasn't even a BD ... It was a N-S sag front. But I mentioned this yesterday. May not be as warm in the E. Do the temps still in the 60s E of 95 and 70s E of ORH for a while..? Winds are light behind this front and there's not a whole helluva lot of actual cold transport with that. Shallow layer... Sun could eat it up by lunch, but with the winds in situ E and ENE already, I'm just wondering if the cold ocean anomaly might not be in the MOS/machine coverage very well. Day's long tho. The NAM is insisting the boundary collapses back NE, showing a sfc SW wind burst at Logan in the 21 to 24hr period of early evening. Late high for eastern zones.

I wonder if the polar jet is just going to continue careening straight through to the fall for fuck's sake it won't stop. So this is turning into just another prick tease warm up - yet again. At least it's more than a single day I suppose. But that's an October circulation ordeal after the front Thu/Fri. Then the weekend's obliterated by cold overrunning with a high banked N. F grade for being warm season respective.

Not worth a conversation once you get these compressors installed… Microclimate your house with mini splits to switch between as needed and be done with it. No conversation required. not getting dragged into, but I will say it’s odd. You guys spend so much time worried about whether other people manage their thermal aversions.

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NAM is BDing NE/E coastal zones tomorrow. Not sure I'm surprised or think that's necessarily wrong given to the fact that this extended arm of the warm boundary is actually a stationary boundary with a slightly elevated +PP in the GOM. The deep layer wants to erode it back NE as it comes but given to the positive static stability/density argument, it's not unfounded to have that get into the 495 region ... It may also collapse back E and send the old 6:15 pm high temperature to Logan as an outside shot too. West of 495 looks quite warm. Tuesday has 30C in the T1 layer of the NAM grid on a WSW flow, 850s of 17+C and < 60% ceiling RH ... that's a hugely above normal day for this time of year. Probable 2m Ts in the 94 range ...tickling big heat numbers. Newark NJ/metro west of NYC get it done on this run

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was just pokin' around at obs. Looks like seasonal evapotran might be kicking in. DPs in the decoupled layer surged from low 40s to mid to upper 50s by dawn at a lot of the NWS tweener sites on their W&H Viewer. Decouple/radiative nights are probably not going to be able to do the < 40 thing even if the pattern tries to butt bone summer again. lookin' like 80s today ... some of the DP mixing out

Poaching this off Spaceweather.com but I thought you ENSO geese might find this interesting... SUPER EL NIÑO, IS THE TERMINATOR TO BLAME? Headlines are buzzing with news that a super El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean. A solar physicist saw it coming 3 years ago. A super El Niño like this one in 1997 is now forming in the Pacific Ocean. In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026. He based it on the Terminator, a magnetic event on the sun that ends one solar cycle and ignites the next. Averaging the past five solar cycles into a "standard cycle" and projecting it forward, Leamon found that El Niños follow about five years after a Terminator. The most recent termination event happened in December 2021, putting the next El Niño squarely in 2026. His model says nothing about the strength of this El Niño, but the timing is spot-on. Leamon and his colleague Scott McIntosh had previously shown that every Terminator since the 1960s coincided with a flip from El Niño to La Niña. Their work correctly predicted the onset of a triple-dip La Niña in 2020 and revealed an unexpected connection between the sun and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Adapted from Fig. 5 of Leamon (2023), this chart highlights two apparently successful predictions based on the Terminator No one knows how the sun exerts control over the ENSO. Most researchers favor "top-down" models: Solar activity alters the top of Earth's atmosphere, making changes that percolate down to affect the weather we experience near Earth's surface. But the actual mechanism is unknown. At first (2021), Leamon and McIntosh thought cosmic rays were responsible. Galactic cosmic rays vary with the solar cycle, and they influence the ionization of Earth's atmosphere. But later (2023) Leamon himself weighed in against cosmic rays, noting that the timing didn't work. He currently favors a correlation with geomagnetic activity. The search for a sun-El Niño connection is as old as El Niño itself. Sir Gilbert Walker, who discovered the "Southern Oscillation" (the SO in ENSO) in the early 1900s, tried and failed to find a link to sunspots. Throughout the 20th century, other researchers likewise struggled to make the connection. The Terminator, however, is a new concept articulated by McIntosh and Leamon in a series of papers starting 10 years ago. It seems to do a good job of predicting solar cycles and may be successful with ENSO as well. It will take more than 1 or 2 successful predictions to build confidence in this model, but it's a good start. Let the El Niño begin.

hahaha.... I had just provided a bit more colorful way of describing that bold key aspect there... - although you can tell the GFS' recent runs have been just ackin' to blue line us again. It's like scheming to put out a model run with Feb heights one last time

just a psychobabble guess but it 'might' have something to do with the fact that the forecast doesn't have a chance of rain changing to snow barely two f days from now. When that's the case, it kind of takes the joy out of a day like this ... curse for being weather-aware. Lot of folk don't even really look or care to look at the 'cast, they just head out - great! But if we know it's got a short window it kind of sours it a bit. Top 3 if not top 1 day here as far as I can tell. DP 42 with 79 and wind down to zephyr breezes ... not sure what else Earth can do to sponge bathe our balls and bring us deserts...

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Quite possibly the best symbolic metric for that is the fact that the nights won’t be nearly as cold. This will cause a healthy status of green up to go full on jungle by the end of the week. Frankly, I’m amazed green ups as far as it is the way it’s been dipping into 37 every night for the past 7000 years

Euro's putting up big heat numbers in NYC's metro west and N NJ on Wednesday.