Typhoon Tip

heh...not sure how to use that 'multiquote' but ha, nice to see the agreement among Mets there

there’s some angry denialism goin on in here tonight

impressive hydrostatic correction with that front, no doubt. 20 dm in 6 hours, the bulk of which happens faster than that, too.

synoptic wind driven events seldom materialize or verify as advertised. That's why I lean needing the convective assist - hence the Marginal. I just checked btw and they've already gone there in their d-3 sev storms outlook - tho the verbiage is rather bland.

mm I'm thinking more along the lines of synoptic forcing/wind problems that are then entangled with convection along what's inevitably going to be a ribbon echo squall sinuously side winding across the area. I guess wind watch headlines may cover this come to think of it. Plus... any "subtle" discrete nature to leading convective elements that are embedded in the misty wind smearing rad wash region - dirty warm sector... Those'll be whisking along within a llv jet. Those could snap troubled limbs. NAM is a tad more aggressive with this llv wind max than the Euro ( 12z ) ...haven't looked that GFS. But the NAM indicated 65+kts at 925 mb between HFD-BED! That's a whopper if it's for real. But even the Euro has this wind maxim moving NYC to SE zones/clipping at 55 to 60. A compromise puts a potential momentum/gust problem across the bulk of the area. There's still still 2 days to tune this potential. But the soundings start to look more barotropic as this is all occurring and that means we scale back the protective inversion stuff...

I bet a marginal goes up for us on Friday... wouldn't be shocked.

The GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to its ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling In fact, the GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to every ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling, EPS, Can ... GEFs et al. Not sure why this guidance is doing that, but it is what it is...and may be the best route to getting a nostalgia Holiday realized. Namely, it's clearly showing a more western limb -NAO circulation mode behavior in it's cinema, passing through the Holiday and toward NY... That backs the flow through central Canada, and then confluence increases ... blah blah and the boundary ends up suppressing. I didn't detail the GEFs with extraordinary obsession or anything ...but just the cursory evaluation of the 500 mb anomaly distribution, the -NAO expression is retrograded in the operational run, and the ensemble mean does not perform that retrograde. At the end of the day, the NAO remains the bane of prediction skill in the ambit of forecasting technology. jesus. that fuggin thing just cannot seem to ever be well-enough predetermined to know with comfort how the local fields will be modulated. So I guess it's not impossible that the GFS is more right about it... the GGEM from 12z, fwiw, did take a step. Edit, case in point, this 12z GFS now decides to look a little less west oriented -NAO than the previous. We're still playin with dad's model gun with that index out there, though

GGEM's a nice nod in favor of GFS recency, actually ... it's probably going snow on Xmas eve/morning in some micro synoptic weirdness of timing, when embedded ultimately in a longer term predominating warmer signal. ha

You've hinted pretty well at the two primary reasons I've suspect since September this may be an early loaded winter, followed by some struggles. I thought at the time an early spring, too. I sort of sarcastically mused, 'flower February' ... Just expand a little on the climate aspect ( CC not included). This type of low amplitude La Nina autumn/winter in the past preceded some spectacularly warm springs. Gotta dust off the antiquity, but 1976 and 2012 ...etc.. They're there, if one goes and just cursory runs their finger down the ENSO history, they'll see the negative ENSO years, and then compare those to notably warm springs there's a pretty clear correlation there - no, not 1::1 ...work with me here. It's there, and it's non-noise. So, now add 20 years of accelerating CC. Which unfortunately for those that have issues with this reality ... springs have begun expressing bigger heat relative to climate, and also all-time, with increasing frequency. I mean, there have been heat-related deaths in lower China in Marches. It's a matter of time before a February 2017 type ridge returns, here, and perhaps does so with greater duration. I just see as an idea here, that if we combine this latter aspect with the aforementioned climate inference farther above, we don't get a protracted winter sense of it. Also, the near history ( last decade's worth) of winters have become all but dependably similarly behaving - in principle. Despite whatever background/preceding ENSO this or that was observed, leitmotif: some early form of early blocking and snow supporting synoptics ( sometimes as early as Octobers for the first time in my life), then, the circulation gets blown open by midriff seasonal velocity saturation. I'm sorry, since September, see and sense that lurking again ... One thing recent La Nina have not performed very well, is that early climate signaled warmth, however. It may be Russian Roulette with that if/when water finds its level.

Looping vis suggests this is transient and you open up out there over the next hour. We'll see. May not be "sunny" today, but a compromise

late 25th thru mid 27th is an icing pattern. didn't appear y'all mentioned it? If not, that's a stalled polar boundary with duration over running. 1020 +PP situated N of the boundary pushing E while gaining some as it goes + climo = ice event written all over it. Like Will said, ...talk to us when we're within a week. Tru. But, the idea of some sort of a mixy potentials in that time frame is still there in principle.

One can enjoy the deep winter with weather chart drama ... One can embrace the surreal warmth that obliterates winter. There may be no sense for loss in either experience. Either can be fulfilling. I realize we all have our druthers. Most would agree. Yet, it's interesting how those agreeing folk seem to take actual offense at other's. Like it's the stranger's responsibility to be sensitive to one's posting mood, or the flavor of the moment. It's a weird pastime. All these social media are. Fucked Book to Instacrap, OK Stupid to who knows what dating app ... and this, too. There's some sort of an emptiness issue that permeates the souls of modernity. And all this "state of provision" that we take for granted. You know .. it's almost like the law of lessening returns also hits when we look around, and should see how it creates so many choices, yet they are lost in a blizzard of opportunity. Irony how overabundance seems to empty out minds. People would rather then "faux-fill" their gift of brief time for their lives involved in this intractable preoccupation. It's lost because there is no value in gains unearned. If you work for joy, you find it there. Modern experience removes too much of the work. No joy. But the mind still seeks it... so we create the illusion of it in the back and forth of this electronic game.. It all comes down to managing dopa. People can't get it from their lives, why? who knows ... something like boredom from above. But it's easier to seek immediate satisfaction of a dramatic weather-chart cinema. Failing that, they seek it in the group modes of the moment, which are often spontaneously occurring bi-polar flashes of perspectives - how things are so bad, then not so bad this and that. Meanwhile, the more objective viewer sees 0 difference before and after. And then, if some hapless sort wonders into the moment with their particular druthers, and it's not in sync with that mode, they were then irresponsible for other people's delicate sensibilities while were enjoying their dopa .... than they're buzz killed like a swarm murder hornets. This is kind of a toxic relationship. Not the people mind you.. But this pursuit, thinking to fulfill something that cannot ultimately be fulfilled this way, yet keep repeating the same performance

That 2020 scenario was born out of a completely different synopsis.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/15/climate/glosat-global-temperature-data

So I guess the gripe is centered around losing the white Xmas ? as far as the 'scalar' value of the Euro run ( anyway ) I thought that was entertaining enough. Xmas itself on that run has a wall of snow with probable impact visibility and road deterioration issues as a strong WAA burst throws a quick 3" followed by some IP/zr... It cuts off, then there's a Schwegler wrap for some mood stuff lingering into Boxing morning. It's a winter storm man. Then there's a NJ modeler for 3-5" three days later... It's D10 so ... yeah, probably won't be there on the next cycle lol. but it's not exactly a winterless run

--I wouldn't call it "disdain", per se. But definitely reservations. Certainly, a measured approach - not happening.... One should always understand "how" things work. It's a virtuosity that ...even if folks had the presence of mind to see and fulfill ( which is seldom observed -), there's too much. AI adds to the growing menagerie of things people don't really understand as they navigate modernity - just handed instructions on how to use by economic enterprises. Good luck. Yet, it is at a sort of 'intellectual event horizon' beyond which it cannot be fathomed, even if they wanted to - not by 98% of the using population. It's not intellectually tenable. This creates a wider gap, one that may not be bridge-able. There is a crisis of social mores, and breakdown of common morality. Example, what used to keep mass shootings ( for example) down to one or two every 10 years going back to the 1920s. People just didn't act to absurdly. Much less conceive of ever doing so in the first place. All but just a very small tiny fraction of beyond-fringe psychosis were at least sufficiently guided; they acted as at least tenuous, but in place nonetheless, safe-guards that kept things in check. Now? one every 6 months, a number that far exceeds the "very small fraction" number, too. Something is extraordinarily motivating, enough so to indoctrinate merely untoward ideologies into committing to specific actions. And if anyone has a modicum of understanding about sociology and history, they'll see that the most fantastic force to ever have impacted humanity, during and immediately preceding that uprising, wasn't just fire or the wheel. It has been this unchecked innovation --> advent of technologies, since the Industrial Revolution, that is proven too profoundly capable of unilaterally either helping, or afflicting at a species level. The fairest way to define this era is truly a techno-sociological experiment at an evolutionary scale - one that 90some% of the population density will lack the capacity to even be aware of what it is they are being unwittingly subjected to ... Can't end well playing with Cosmos' gun. Failure to understand and commit to the virtuosity of understanding how something works, that same something that one is allowing to guide them? That is a problem when people intertwine with it in blind presumptive faith. From one end of the spectrum of miss-use, to the other end of becoming co-dependent, then having it fail: Where does that leave us?

That's not the scary part. Not really. The scary part is that there are those that seem to be "gifted" in their utilization of the technology - just naturally so. Like they seem to gravitate toward usage. Just seemed 'get it' with a lucidity in engagement that makes them synergistic, ( potentially ) immensely powerful - with great power comes great responsibility. How irresponsible is that going to be?

Heh... y'all must be new to this social media engagement lol

Again ... setting expectations proportional to what is becoming (otherwise) too painfully clear to ignore, will do wonders for ameliorating one's angst. When the flow slows, it's too warm to snow - or tends to be. I've learned to just know this will result - and I've been right more often then not. I feel no distraction. Acceptance will set you free! Related to that ... I was looking at the 300+ hr Euro and that's remarkable. 570 dm heights over the EPO domain, almost that high over the eastern limb of the NAO domain, and the flow in between spanning the continent is compressed at the nadir. So much so it's intrinsically a +velocity-related negative interference pattern. So it's like yeah ... there's cold around ( still - ) but getting it to 40N, here we are again. Seeing so without this negative result has been rarefying.

Why bother I just rather the ridge go ahead and take over rather than swinging wildly between 57 and misty light rain and faux swarm sector winds to 35° dry northwest flow and back and repeat? Fuck that. If that east biased negative NAO ends up over N Europe … the mid N/A continent ridge will take over. it can’t trend anymore. Two days ago when the NAO first showed up it was west.

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6+ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6”ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

My dad told me a story growing up in late 1940s… Had an ice storm like that across Southern lower Michigan. This is long before the current kind of infrastructure or even highway system was nearly as evolved as it is now so probably lacks notoriety but anyway. He said that after about an inch and a half of accreted ice, it transitioned to snow and they had 8 inches on top. That’s something I’ve always wanted to see - a major on top a major