Typhoon Tip

Ooh, I didn't check the EPS ... Hopefully, they're right

I never stated my confidence level. I'm merely stating what the study indicated. The aspects about taut/tension in the system is pure logic after the fact. Having said that, it is based on elemental sciences like coring deep sediments, where trapped air extracts can be analyzed for atmospheric chemistry/volatiles ..etc, doing so in strata, knowing factually the layers downward are older as rudimentary fact ... this goes on quite a ways. It's clear that for some reason, these aspects of the world and research we live in escapes you for whatever reason. But that all enables a history with high confidence interval - see... you have to know how these things are determined. That might help the knee jerk tendency to doubt. There was a universe that existed, long before we were ever here. That does not mean we out of hand doubt what the universe had/or did.

"desperate" is more like it ...but I know what you meant. It's really funny - all these complex solutions when the simple answer is, stop creating greenhouse gas at a faster rate than the background geological processes of this world can compensate. It's really that simple. Carbon sequestration is probably the best solution I've ever heard/read about. However, ...that doesn't do any good if the sequestration only matches the production at the other side. The sequestering tech would have to somehow gulp in that mass of the Earth's atmosphere, every year. One Earth Atmosphere/yr process rate. Otherwise, even won't cut it. Because what 2023 showed us - most likely - is that the Earth's system may not have caught up with the d(fluxes) of the last century's-worth of Industrial farts. The latter happened too quickly. I read a study that the increase in C02 since 1900 exceeds any increase spanning 430 million years of geological history and reconstruction/analysis, using everything from deep sediment coring to carbon dating. That's what it means - most likely - to taut a system... The 2023 temperature burst? strikes me as some of that tension being released - just a small fraction. If one follows this logically, it begs the question, 'what happens should all that tension release at once?' First would need to prove whether or not the wholesale planetary system has in fact caught up with the "geological event" of liberating 3 billion years of fossil fuel volatility to the environment in just 200 years.. You know, there's argument as to whether we live in the "Anthropocene" epoch - the proposed current era of Earth's history. One can imagine, should the proverbial rubber band snap all at once and the extinction wave flashes over, the mere 800 survivors out of 8 billion will definitely have an opinion in that debate. Anyway, seeding? These are like Road Runner/'ACME' solutions. Unless the compendium of the greater science brain knows every possible quantum consequence of effecting a system, ...not to mention the unpredictable realm beyond the synergistic emergence horizon..., anything that is done at a planetary scale is probably going to result in the greatest Darwin award in history.

If there was zero predictive skill prior to the 2023 entire planetary systemic bounce in temperature by a whole degree C spanning a single month in spring - just 1 example of not really understanding the planetary system, and a whopper - how is it that humanity knows what will result if they start tinkering with seeding? I mean I realize you're likely in part being glib for humor's sake ..but I've heard this elsewhere. I just fail to see the legitimacy of that. Some scientist might have proffered that in jest in some conference ...could have even been sarcastic. Who knows. But then the comment gets extracted and repurposed, out of context, and now all the cartoon watchers - which let's be honest, is the 92.34% of all people and the civility they create - are running with it.

Seems like it's mostly the operational GFS? The Euro and CMC ( though the latter only out to 10 days) appear to be seeded by anti CC moles in the modeling division of their foreign sources. heh but the operational GFS is trying to lift the ambient polar boundary somewhat N. It's not obvious like you said. "sighs". But it's coherent enough. Shit, we're after the Equinox in a coffee break. Eventually, the Euro/CMC are going to lose to the fact the June is still coming. In other words, seasonality gives a nod to the operational GFS.

Yeah, polar lows are interesting

Should freak people out that that’s climatologically six months ahead of schedule - assuming that’s a warm core… oh ha, never mind

People are glomming onto drought because there are no other headlines to make this engagement a dopa hit right now, Scott

well... given another 70 years of unabated CC and maybe that will have become common March practice.

they'll try to use that as another reason to cancel school lol

Yeah...without the EPS supportive at < 108 hours I'm thinking this is just another GFS endless winter sell.

I also believe there's something sort of "non-Markovian" about heat waves. The short definition of what that is, in quantum mechanics, it's when past --> future states appear to fail independence. The return, or rest state of the environment, behaves as though retaining sort of residual preprogramming. It "inherits" the history of the system. Thus, returning to that previous state requires less stimulation, as though the inheritance 'inclines' the system. Heat waves are obviously above the quantum field theory scale/dimension, but... that's the underpinning philosophy for the hypothesis. Some examples, the human body. Heat stroke survivors appear to be statistically more likely to find them selves in that dire physical state again, if/when they are, again, exposed to the kind of heat that puts the body at risk. The temperature during heat waves will rise as the light rises in the predawn of successive mornings, hours prior to the sun tipping over the horizon. It's like the memory in the system somehow makes it more receptive, so much so that merely increasing lumens of the ambient air triggers the rise. I believe this is also perhaps a part of synergistic mathematics - or might be workable there. When we see these synergistic heat bursts that have taken place, world over, with increasing frequency ... it is because the initial conditions also contain heredity in the system that favors each successive attempt ( next days ). If there are no "invisible" negative interference, or worse yet, there less obvious positive interference, the results appear to go crazy.

Meh... should be watched. It fits the collapse of the cold S motif that's been in place since October... I don't sense the hemisphere's escaped that annoyance. I mean LOL it's not annoying in January when ferreting for snow chances ... but sure as shit it is nearing the equinox and one's heart is elsewhere. Anyway, in the spirit of objectivity a blue spring snow isn't ridiculous in this pattern foot. Would like to see the EPS machinery at least better

Kind of reminds me of the Oct 30 2020 thing

50/50 ... heh, which ironically, could be the coupled variance result, but I mean just my confidence in the matter. The thing is, the global temperatures are something just shy of unnervingly close to doing something similar to what happened in 2023 - which took off prior to the actual +ENSO. That year was buried inside the global mean doing something else ... Or was it? I mean the RONI stuff sort of skews culpability in the differentials. You kind of want a non-RONI based outlook in tandem, so to make a comparison to the RONI outlook - see the difference. Digress.. Anyway, "IF" the wholesale globe bursts again, I don't feel personally as confident that a warm SST band is as forcing that way. I'm curious what this rusty curve looks like in 2 months

22nd's the latest, personally... I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham. Great memories of then.. I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction. We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot. Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds, while surely confused green daffodil shoots poked through. If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past. Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really? On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves. Went on to be a warmer than normal summer.

Can't say I blame the AI versions for being the cooler profiles - if I'm following the slide changes right... Looks like that. I've noticed the AI are typically leaning cooler than the operational/standard versions over the longer haul. I mean, I'm trying to figure out through exposure/inference, how these models come by their solutions. Just watching them long enough one might formulate suspicion as to what they are doing... I've already been told they do not propagate waves through a Fourier Transformation, using Navier-Stokes integrated thermodynamics haha.. Seriously though. I didn't really dig deeper when I saw that; I just sorta figured they're doing some kind of "we don't know how it works" ( a common scary seduction of AI innovation leaders - ) NBM clone and shrugged. But, I do kinda sense that it might have persistence in part of what it is doing - however in the f it is doin' it. In the absence of having actual physics determining the physical future ( eh hm..), I don't believe that AI is really trully creepy just manifesting conscious awareness about the future state of the atmosphere, and therefore am open to it really just doing some simpler shit in proper proportions.

my god... can you imagine the dopa priapisms in here lol

If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd. Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd. Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18

No kidding! This is a much bigger issue ... with a spectrum of implications that transcends typical concerns with ENSO. I mean there's all the failing and fragile coupling arguments, as RONI was developed to more closely elucidate matters... but beyond that, check out the global current SSTs, only as the NINA is relaxing. The last week's-worth needs to be verified, hence the spotted line ... But seldom does that fail. It is highly likely that the global SSTs, presently, rival 2024's record breaking warmth. The astute observer might even notice that the last 10 days of which was a bit of a surge? That's coincided with this CPC product's rather abrupt break down of the E Pac cool expanse. Thus, the implications if/when NINO takes over are quite intuitive.

Also, as Scott - I think - mentioned.. this is the time of year when a chilly look can be flogged by daddy sun like a red headed step child, and it may not look like a mild day at first chart glance. I noticed that Sunday profile yesterday, myself. Had a kind of sneaky partly sunny with light WNW flow, and 850s only +2 ... That's the kind of day/profile that busts MOS by 3 clicks or more. It's fragile ... increase the clouds even a little and f's it all up and it's the same shit.. But at least it's non-zero some gain time of year. This bullshit enabling circumstance can fight all it wants ... June is still coming.

Right. I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less! But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point. Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy. To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold. At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that couples to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that. Unfortunately, ENSO mode changes don't typically register in the summer when change sets in, in summer. Plus, coupling has been shaky in recent cycles. 'Sides, who wants to wait until September for summer to begin. heh.

You're not asking me but ... I couldn't care any less if the pattern is unremarkable, just don't be unremarkable yet remarkably persistently cold. Whether it measures in the actual temperatures or not, that has been plaguing this region of the hemisphere since October. It's as though this region's been "singled out", targeted chill. I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less! But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point. Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy. To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold. At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that couples to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that.

Solidly below normal pattern that's masked by a solidly changing climate

Yeah, I was just gonna remind everyone that that is a vicious behind the shed BD raping pattern. Not a warm look for us, no way.