Typhoon Tip

I've been pushing more of a 'melt and mud' season for the time being. There's a higher ceiling than that. However, in deference to the fact that every month since last October has successfully targeted this region of the continent for disproportionate cold relative to the whole hemisphere, it's hard to imagine this warm up performing at the higher end - just based on that unmitigated persistence. If that present Euro-modeled 564+ dm thickness surge makes it inside of 84 hours on guidance, fine... I'll tell yeah ...wouldn't it be interesting to see a 70s transporting warm front run over this snow pack though?

That's like a 'rubber band' pattern at the end of that GFS. Basically ... the model loses the forcing that driving the predominating signal earlier in the run's time spans. Pulls away leaving default huge instability - bounces back and overcompensates. That's likely all manufactured by normal accumulation of a randomness over time finally buckling the scaffold of the total synopsis and then that emerges, equally as a result of randomness. In other words, there's pretty much 0 practical usefulness of that storm/chart. Having said that...yeah, in principle, the warm pattern is not likely to last indefinitely ... even though I want it to. HAHAHA. Personal druthers aside, I wouldn't be shocked if the warm pattern begins to progress off and the emergence of a western limb -NAO burst happens. It's in the latter sequence of events that here may be a last hurrah winter expression ...be it temperatures and annoyance or perhaps an actual event. Boinnnng or not, the GFS also looks like what it does every year's first 2nd or third warm up - I know...because I whine about it ...every year at this time. It washes out warm signal prematurely and then resets the basal pattern back to Feb 1. Not sure why it predictably does this, but that pattern at the end of the run with those long wave spaces and deep heights over Canada strikes me as suspiciously the same thing it does ever early to mid spring.

huh, really. Heh, I just posted how it looked shirked a bit compared to the Euro and CMC. I'll take another look

heh, that 0z Euro was quite the spring enthusiast placation. What a look! The last three cycles of the GFS, including this 12z ( so four then ..) suddenly begin doing everything in the models power to rasp the ridge flat and not be as impressiv, shy of inventing physics. LOL. This interferes/mutes the 6th -12th warm signal to something comparatively less than any other systemic guidance technology that exists. Not sure I buy it.. but we'll see. I still confident that we gin up melt and mud season on the heels of this cold nut punch tomorrow through Wednesday... I don't have much confidence in going crazy on the top side despite the Euro and CMC's 565 dm thickness plume(s). It's just too far over climo until that's < 72 hours

Well, they apparently broke a record so don’t quote me. That’s just what’s going on out there. Maybe bullshit on the Internet Lol, that never happens The question at hand is whether it’s an equivalent anomaly to one of these chilly summer nights up there northern New England, I guess Too wit … I really don’t know the answer to that I just brought it up because I was wanting the conversation I just saw another post that said 106

Well, those two can be mutually exclusive It’s not a bad question but the baseline synopsis of the winter has been favoring, western ridge eastern trough. This has been setting up in varying degrees of amplitude, and sort of shuffling around, but it in the means… has been essentially that. At a basic level that correlates with warmer weather in the west and cooler weather in the east. What’s going on in Texas? Not exactly the same thing. There had to be other circumstances that fed into that. Just looking at the basic pressure pattern they are drawing Mexico plateau air d-slope across the Rio Grande … Could be a kind of a south to north pointed local regional chinook/compressional heating assist.

I wonder if some media source or the other come July 20 puts out a headline that says something like, “southern Texas was the warning we all missed”

I’m still not sure that’s equivalent Doesn’t seem like it really is It’s happened in July there more than once? I really don’t know, but that’s kind of a defining difference. This is the first time this has happened down there apparently. Hence the record. And actually… Now that I think about it that’s not defining anything really because something happens one in 10 just can have bad luck and not happen and then something that’s one in 30 can happen three times so that actually doesn’t mean shit. The other method is just look at the average high down there at this time of year and consider the departure and then look at the average low temperature up there during a climate relevant time of year and consider that departure. I guess the scaler value of the anomaly plus whether or not it has happened befor and all that jazz. That’s the other thing … might be easier circumstantially geographically/geologically up there in July then it should be down there in Texas in February which is I don’t know it all seems really dubious

I guess this La Peurta was 104F the internets getting memewhelmed with “hottest n/a winter temp ever” Has to be validated but that’s the scuttlebutt

Welp … SLK and HIE making 32 in August are not climate-relative equivalent to what’s going on down there… Just sayn’

I have no idea what’s the average first date of big heat is down there but it seems like 100 must be early.

OH yeah..ha right. 6 times then. Forgot about 2015.. although I thought that 2 foot but meh close enough Definitely an uptick in the frequency of big dawgs compared those previous decades though. man

It's interesting that 1978 and 1996 are the only two years I have in my personal log that had 30" in a single event - and I wasn't a part of the 1996. Yet, I have been proximal to the same event that has done that 4 times just since 2010. Maybe 5... If we're basing the odds of getting that on some kind of experience or climate inference, be aware of the risks.

Reposting other people's tweets is such a bore. jesus - It's not like we haven't already discussed the exact same shit, with more zeal and sophistication. Yeah. We know already

I've noticed that of the two, the AI GFS tends to warmer overall synoptics than the AI Euro by smaller to mid options.

Heh ...that thing for the 4th turned ugly on this Euro. 24 hours ago that was a moderate fast moving snower. Now it's a 48/47 misty rhea sector under a CNE transit. Yuck Rather the fucker shoot up the St L and balm.

There were two periods to this warm up... The first being a contentious argument between winter and spring that begins really Sunday and lasts trough the 9th or so. The second being an implied if not explicit very warm couple of three days between the 10th and the Ides... This 12z GFS is attempting to discontinue the latter of the two as a brand new reconstruction of the continental synopsis by the 10th.

His point has merit though. Related to, the definition of extremes is getting diminished by increasing frequency of them. Some would like to hide in the cozy euphemism that it is just cycles of nature playing out, and the gaslight of that evasion of reality is that yeah .. nature does have cycles. But excluding that denial tactic ( which is either amoral, a straight question of competent intelligence/education/etc, or a mash up of all), the frequency increase graph is matching the CC graph... sort of like a Keeling Curve for events, not CO2. haha. Nice cozy fit. 'Sides, math has already demoed that extremes increase in a d(climate). Tongue in cheek aside... you almost feel better about getting a repeat of the "extraordinary" now, than you would living in 1990.

That looks really cold Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Monday's eve is steeped in a sneaky Montreal Express; very efficient transport of low level syrup from western QUE/E Ontario. Thickness say 520 to 525 but the sounding may be more upright with the coldest, relative to normal, being the lowest 300 mb space of the sounding. It's all happening over a pan-dimensional snow pack, too. I bet we decouple and see (the season's last?) -0s lows in the interior around 4 am Tuesday morning. Might even call that the local pattern nadir, and it's rising in principle through the 10th after that.

Man... talk about radiative cooling .. all the way down to 3 degrees at FIT

This has gotten smeared a bit. For me, the warm up wasn't really until the 10th all along. The hemispheric move toward that destiny takes some work. Begins spanning the first week. These overrunning looks are really just systemic consequence in transitioning from a winter troposphere to a warmer one. That's bound to be noisy/error prone in guidance as to what happens and when. But one thing we are seeing is that the warmth likely wins by the 10th, amplitude of which to be determined. How long it lasts out there is unclear but obviousness to the time of the year would perfunctory argue that it regresses at some point before Apr 1. The indexes are 50/50 at this time... 2010 and 2012s can happen, but we probably need another 50 years of CC before those become more common haha

It won't be that way ..c'mon. People are just angst/frustrating the inevitable ending of winter, just like every year, so their venting by overselling the downside and scapegoating spring as a means to vent. Ha. And yeah, folks are just having fun with whoa-ism hyperbole, too. Still, there'll be good stretches. It is true, the bad stretches can be, and probably will be, particularly bad at times - made torturous whenever the stuck Farmington front separates 38 F in Lowell while it's 70 in NYC. But there'll be d-slope dandy days once in a while. There could also be one or two ridge anomaly patterns along the course.

I’ve not been sold on this being more than melt and mud season. I don’t like the fact that the smeared out polar vortex is on this side of the north pole; it inherently means that we’re gonna have a compressed flow and fast flow in southern Canada. That’s a recipe for wedging… That’s always been there. It doesn’t mean we can’t get super warm but it just makes it really dicey wouldn’t feel comfortable going for that at this range.

The sarcasm was lost to everyone that reacted to that.... ...I also think it's interesting that those that reacted are typical