Typhoon Tip

One aspect that intrigues me about that final/ending statement, "While our findings provide many avenues for interesting and relevant new research, the authors stress that the best way to reduce both uncertainty in and exposure to climate impacts is a rapid transition of relevant societal sectors away from fossil fuels to stabilize global temperature rise", is that the climate response has actually lagged behind the anthropomorphic contributed forcing. Or in other words, the latter has outpaced the former. I keep reading statements - no fault to the author as it's not specific to their study - like this, where it "seems" or intimates a 1::1 causality in time. As though if the ideal reality could ever be achieved, where there were a sudden and abrupt cessation of fossil fuel use, there would thus begin an immediately response and stabilizing climate. That is unfortunately not the case. In any such idealized state of affairs, the Earth would like keep warming until it satisfies the total thermal regulation/balance. Another way to look at it is, there is room for the present atmospheric chemistry to store yet more thermal energy that it is. Another possibility ( intuitive speculation) is that the modulating aspect of the global oceanic quasi coupling to this mess we are in, might also continue to absorb the lion's share of the warming human activity should otherwise have realized. 90% of which has sunk into the oceans (btw) since the Industrial Revolution. So in simpler terms, it's possible that a sudden stoppage of fossil fuel combustion might register more slowing of the warming due to this factor.

I'm not sure if this is objectively true but this does seem "intuitively" to be quite fast for an onset differential - coarse kind of resolution/presentation as it may be... What's the average modality timing with these things...etc

has anyone else been receiving occasional report backs with Gate way lag/failures. It's saying it is at this end, btw. American's problem if the report is to be believed.

haha... Brain... no, Brian

I'd actually say 50/50 shot that the westward sudden retrograde idea around the 4th to 7th of July is too aggressive. As I said to Brain, the purer derived numerical teleconnectors, from all sources, are graphically not really propagating the rising PNA curve closer in time. Repositioning them toward the right on the graphs means any retrograde is been pushed back. I think what is more telling about that isn't a pattern flip, it's more a pattern uncertainty. It's like the modeling tech et al loses the linear more detectable physical forcing in the nearer terms, then that immediately exposes the vestigial perennial non-linearity of the N/A continent favoring higher heights over the Rockies.

The GFS actually hangs the warm front right over us for 2 and half days from what I see. A time in which IL/IN/OH/MI enjoy 582 to 584 dm hydrostats containing 25+C at 850 mb plasma layer, over 102 F surface blister. It's related to that stuff we talked about yesterday ..it's stacking the ridge heights uber tall, but keeping the wave lengths pretty short - does seem a little suss but who knows. I see what you are saying but the GFS is trying really hard to keep the wave ( holistically...) lengths so curved and steep that it collapses the ridge's giz pulses more S than SE. E NY/PA and NE ends up more just humid and thundery and probably MCS traffic cops. It's a form of summer weather for sure... But just my take looking at the 00 and 06z blended GFS operational runs. Having said that... what's interesting is that the GEFs/GEPs means are actually cleaner looking than the operational versions of either cluster. That in and of itself is likely just smoothing from the member tussle/averaging.. .but, it shows also that this is precarious, because those smoother inclinations actually would send an over top heat crest in a couple of 18 hour separated maxes... (too detailed to make that call, but I have long years of experience at this point). Interesting. I'd say the ens means look more more "successful" in the over top method. Of course, still D7... The blend of all looks high confidence for the southern GL region to suffer a short duration very intense heat wave. No comment on historical this-that comparisons for now. Regarding that, those 2-m Ts do not look correct given the holistic, synoptic- parametric constituency that is objectively modeled. Not unusual though - not sure why 2-m products really exist. It is clear they either stop the adiabats at something higher than the surface sigmas (thus can't be 2 meter anything...) or just suck too bad to even look at them. So .. short duration? I only say that because even though the ensemble spatial synoptic means can't seem to wait to toggle the entire structure dubiously quickly back W...like within 2 days flipping the PNAP on it's ass, I'd caution, the numeral teleconnector ( math provided numbers) are having difficulty getting that nearer in time. They are collapsing the wave function ... think can kicking, which means it could be rushed.

It's flawless imho today.

Yeah I've had a sentence floating around the internal monologue lately that sums up ... "we seem to just be geologically incapable". I've been following heat waves since before the "synergistic heat wave" was identified ( recently decades) as a real track-able phenomenon, and since they have ... we've gotten our "heat waves" but ... I dunno - it really doesn't seem like we can do the synergy thing here. The wave spacing miss-alignment with the continental girth during seasonal contraction of the r-wave lengths idea seems to be the best fit that I've seen, too. Same. I was thinking that very same thing, we just need some very rare/long return rate timing perhaps. Maybe it's 1::300 year deal here. Or, it can't. At this point it's been 23 years since France and we've seen 610 dm high ridge nodes recurring everywhere it seems except here. Hell, Japan's had one or two.

sort of a secondary statistical remarkable nature here in that since these records in some cases are back-to-back consecutive days warmer than the prior record means that the aggregate exposure of this is unique. It'll make the integrated heat wave energy probably a GOAT

Western Europe is now five of these nuclear synergistic heat bombs since 2003, compared to our zero spanning the same years That being the case when there is a codified positive correlation tele connector between eastern North America western Europe This is somewhat odd

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ-BVyWRCWR/?igsh=MWdyeHVhZ3BjczRueg== LOL

models doing manufacturing physical reasons to shunt tho -

mm.. I think the 12z GFS is on crack with that west atl cut-off out of now where like that. 00z CMC was an outlier with a sharply back calving trough too, so we'll have to see. we were slated for a 2 days of significant heat until this run, tho. Euro's never been on board. Looks like this trying to miss NE a least excuse imaginable. Again...while the rest of the world broils to 2nd place i hottest ever. Wonder when cold enthusiasts around here will stop getting jerked off

By some small added amount... (if otherwise determined less significant, notwithstanding) this heat wave in N-W Europe is plausibly made fractionally worse by the fact that it's straddling the Solstice. The idea being obvious, the sun surround this week to 10 days perennially reaches it's most intensity relative to all N. Hemispheric latitudes. July heat waves are within the solar Max period of the year, ~ May 10 to August 10... Not sure if this is a threshold argument, to be fair. Like it doesn't matter for solar flux variances when above a certain value, as long as the region is above that seasonal value, the heat response is the same. I'm not sure that makes physical sense because you are either dumping more, or less actual solar radiation into the system - The other complexity is 'prompting' overlapping with circulation modes of mid summer that are concurrent by July 20th.. Prompting comes from a kind of "non-Markovian" aspect of the hemisphere (Non-Markovian refers to systems where the future state depends not only on the current state but also on past states, indicating the presence of memory effects in the dynamics of the system... ) So, that kind of trades off a slightly lowering solar rad count for the fact that the system is bias to get back to warmer states. The circulation mode addition is that the normal seasonal expansion of the HC and polarward retreat of the westerlies --> the apex in seasonal-climate for heat reaching it's farthest N latitudes. If 1 and 2 are constructively interfering ... it may be worth it to take a linear look at the statistics over the years, and see if there is a tendency to heat repeating when May/June are significantly above average. That's the science approach... intuitively? mmm we're doing that ( plausibly) when holistically ...the world is constructively interfering with any excuse to be warm at all. All of which begins to fade off circa mid August. At which time solar dimming becomes significant enough that it just doesn't add as much, or enough to recover a hot hemisphere - prompting can't actually do it alone, and ambient troposphere begins to shrink (albeit less coherently at first) from losing diurnal thermal pressure. So a short version take away... You know, I can already see that D4 the the heat has relaxed due to downward/relaxation in the present circulation mode from the middle Atlantic Basic to Scandinavia. However, all the ensemble main sources, EPS/GEFS/GEPS are more and less coherently already showing by 200 hours that a new ridge may be formulating W of the Iberian Peninsula. That essence tends to presage a correction as the times near to go ahead and balloon that feature N-E to engulf as far N as the lower B.I region ... perhaps a resurgence is in the making.

Yeah same here

heh ..maybe we will get some brightening sooner than thought? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined seems to be collapsing S while thinning

Yeah. that whole monitoring system is both needed, but is also in need (imho) of some sort of reevaluation of technique. I took a deeper dive and read 'how' they come up with it a while ago. It's a combination of empirically derived, plus human perpsective. If I recall right it's 3 blended aspects: 2-layer time -dependent of deeper layer vs surface recency, then opinionated by human Climo and Mets. It 'sounds' good on paper that way, but mmm When wells are supplying, area res are 80+ if not topped, and rivers a meandering just fine, something seems off with all that orange.

Other possibility around then is MCS given those looks. That seems like a slam dunk consideration. You know ...even if we don't get inside the DOME dome dome, the period of time will quite likely average AN

Wait, that seems like a decent dose/time there. which way is your sarcasm pointing ? 1.3" for the 2-day total here. Looks on rad like we're about to go languid mist from here on out N-W of ORH-BOS. Might clear at 5 o'clock ? The NAM nailed this thing from about 30 hours out. The Globals might have been a little rich on QPF? not totally sure there. General audience: Ensembles look very close to a major heat headline-able event from ~ D8+ thru model fuzziness. This was a vague signal some 10 days ago, way out along the emergent modeling horizon. It has since been inconsistently showing up and fading ... something like a 1.3 steps ahead by 1.10 steps back... but slowly gaining coherence. This overnight looks 70-ish percent confidence for a N/A mid latitude heat dome with less certainty whether it gets in here. If so, it would be over the top - the ridge axis being 90-ish W instructs the NW delivery. Which looks plausible in the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFS and GEP. The GEPs in fact looked quite fantastic/best for purer heat delivery around D9, as it was an over top delivery that then morphs into this, So the uncertainty with all this is the operational versions are being cute with convective shrapnel if not meso-beta scale synoptic waves ejecting out of the trough in the west, racing over the ridge top and probably sending outflow this and general warmth denting that, and seeing as we're at the eastern fragile end of that wave-space/curvature field, I'd go ahead a call that the operational models engineering any means plausible to physics to stop a heat wave signal from actually taking place LOL. seems like that some times. Here are the EPS/GEFs ensembles in the meantime, for D9-ish

Enabling America https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ4fnMWsA9k/?igsh=MTdudWJkZWQ3NTFjZA==

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ258yBJQ6R/?igsh=MTBpeDNpb3doajd2Zg==

Euro's just unbearable. Anything imaginable to stop heat getting in New England, at the end of this rendition used a closed low at 590 heights I'm not saying I want it hot per se but jesus with that

Approaching 600 dm non-hydrostats is nuts since the shit version of the GFS in 2017 was retired...

Looks like about a buck 50 on the NAM N of the Pike. Nothing ridic. Beneficial. ...I'm sure we'll focus on whatever 5.76" version instead... but probably this is a 'standard' soaking