Typhoon Tip

How about 5" of basin rain into this pack at 55F whilst the ground beneath is still frozen mm? mmm?

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

People should learn what indices are, what they mean. It would offer a huge manifold of knowledge, from which one may then understand operational models with better predictive skill. In this case, the indices (derived by weight the ensemble) support the emerging/ steadily increasing warm signal that we are seeing in the operationals. It doesn't mean that will go on forever until Earth's sitting on the surface of the sun... At some point the signal with "max" and or suffer daily idiosyncratic aspects not presently seen... But in principle, the totality of it would mean the end of winter and the onset of spring. Yup. Right now ... you didn't ask but I'm fine with holding hyperbole to 'melt and mud season' - use that as a basis and then add if (and we probably will have to - ) we need.

Your realize that is "10hPa", right ?

The image itself isn't likely intended to mean what the 'PV will cause', per se... It's most likely the authors just using a pic as click bate in general. Think art - But you're right. I'm willing to bet that if this society can have the "compos mentis" to believe this demon should be in charge, they can certainly be dumb enough to think that's real. But that's guaranteeing the click bate works, huh. Both ends of that are assholes.

False and/or bad information by those that don't have it right

Although the operational Euro's 12z likeness to the GFS operational is quite impressive for 260+ hours. Wow... maybe so, huh. I mean, sometimes big signals come over the temporal horizon of the modeling earlier - the underlying supporting physical circumstances have a lot of prominence in the flow. It's the same reason "Sandy", and "1993" and probably a handful of other notables of lore were also remarkably early signals that stuck around the guidance. No reason why that can't happen with heat burst synoptics. maybe. We'll see. It sort of hearkens to a climo Omega Block - more typically found in latter March and April.

I think it may be over cooked. Admittedly don't have a lot of confidence though. I've seen this in the past where these early season modeled warm bulges end up 18 hours of misty warm sector. I've literally seen a D11-14 run of 75 F days end up verifying one day of 62. What happens is the progressive footprint sped up the frontal advance 1 hour/run for week's worth until the first 2 days are claimed. Meanwhile, the wedged in BD air mass is 18 hours too fast to erode out in the guidance. No one wins: no snow; warmth gypped. This one does have the index/ens spacial synoptics backing the -PNA, so we'll see. I'm perfectly happy with melt and mud and leave it at that for now... which no one wins in that boredom either. Ha

Everyone's hedging in their posting content, as is typically the case heading into March. It's made worse now because we just clocked a blizzard near that amorphous seasonal boundary - some years more blurred than others. Right now though, folks are triggered, all ginned up for more snowy storms; certainly reticent to face the fact that models and indicators end things ... pretty abruptly really on or about the 7th or 8th. Not the 10th... not 'hopefully we can get one of these events thru the 15th' ... No one's asking for objectivity that wakes them up in the middle of their white dream but that annoying sound is the alarm clock. Again, yeah .. 'bowling' events can happen. Valid aspect/risk of New England springs. Farmer's gold blue snow. Whether that happens or not, the season ends this particular year by nature's choice on or about the 7th or 8th. Before that, these events look like seasonal coughers while the breathing shallows.

Still way out at 270 hours so tfwiw. The operational GFS is an amplified version of the persistent ens mean coverage I and others have been tracking. Whether that happens above or not... -PNA. I suspect at minimum it all means we transition into melt and mud season. Basically the dawn of spring. Relax ...it doesn't end snow chances - the return rate on end winter by mid March is something like 6 years - don't quote me; it seems that way. That means there as 82% chance it snows again? heh somepin like ghat The timing has moved in, in bulk modeling... I was thinking this was after the 10th, but it's pretty clear that once the 3/4th moves off, trends have been pushing for the Rossby roll-out prior.

Re the blizzard, it in fact made a late adjustment toward reality. It was just slightly too far NW of what actually transpired the day-ish before, and then made a 'within error expectation' bump - which is obfuscated by the fact that there was theoretical room for NW adjustments prior to that. It was a bit of journey, the total error of which - to me - was irrelevant really ... I guess I'm saying that late bump was a no fault - considering that the other global models were pretty bad until just 60 hours or even 48 hours out, comparatively. Not accounting for the rest of the winter/other events.. .just the blizzard. I was rollin' eyes and annoyed when the bump back SE triggered street trash.

NAM had 0 QPF at Logan on at least one run yesterday. NAM is NAM is NAM but just sayn'

S- est vis 1/2 mi 17F

It may not be lasting long enough ... I look over that stuff today at lunch. It seems the tropopausal depths show partial collapse but rebound within just 3 days. It's like it 'bends but doesn't break' ... hm

That was the most incredible early heat I'd ever seen. Ended just as handsomely, too - 91 to 38, 2pm to 2pm, 31st to April 1. Never to this day have I seen a BD that powerful. It was 3pm and the T on the wx lab monitor was flipping around 89 and 90, while up in CAR, ME, 50 mph gusts from the NE and something like 33F - can't recall exactly but you knew... That was the 3rd day of too... like 88, 89, 91 on Campus. So the correction was going to be felt. Pretty sure at least wet snow was on the table a week later.

I've seen 72 over a foot of snow ... Granted it is rare

Ha... this is gon' chap some asses but the 2nd Sunday in March is the 8th this year, the earliest possible date the clocks will be switched ahead by an hour ... On a day that is 74 F? ...while not priceless per se, that's certainly handsomely rubbing it in

heh heh... any 'trolling' is going the other way as people cling to yesterday's la la land like it's interminable. Denial, certainly avoidance, are just as coherent as that warm signal is... And 'sides, as March is a transition month anyway, tough cookies. If it makes anyone feel any better, no one is saying we don't deal with a bowling ball or another late attempt in general. But July is still fucking coming... and in order to get there, a warmup at some point or the other has to occur and heralds the onset of that journey. Hello -

The other verification gypping is when the orbital pattern is 70 and verifying everywhere except NE NYC because we’re pumping BDs like German shit porn

Scott's right ... perhaps do what one can to enjoy winter's glory for the next 7 or 8 days because after that the season's plug might be pulled. It's still over 8 days out, but it's also not a new signal. The indices have steadily been improving with coherency. - by the way, there is a March thread so technically this belongs over there. However, there persists a modest winter event signaled between 2-5th. Not altogether impressed for any chances prior to that, assuming reasonable model/indicator performance. The flow will be fast, however ...so that may limit that ability for the synoptic scaffold to evolve into a coastal - if the flow relaxes a little ... similarly to this last one, could become a relative signal inside a longer termed unfavorable correlation. Nested anomaly ... so we'll see. But for now, the operational GFS/Euro overnight were illustrating the limitation by keeping it a "swfe"/overrunning ooa March 3/4... Melt and mud kicks in like a seasonal light switch in these extended signals nearly on the heels of that.

mentioned this in the Feb thread but it looks like the indices are buckin' for a pretty major step out of winter after the first week of the month. Before that happens, there is a signal between the 2nd and 5th. Could turn out to be the season's 'retirement party' ... If the season gets called out of retirement briefly during bowling season, notwithstanding. haha. I'm ready... lets melt and mud season.

Pleasy weezie, with sugar on top...

we had stepped back up to moderate over the last couple of hours here. Together with wind gusting frequently to 40 made for low vis milky look out the window. It abruptly ended about 10 min ago. Vis jumped to 5+ mi inside of 5 minutes. I've seen this before here. One of the big storms in 2015 did this... we were doing just fine, the radar with est 2 more hours to go ...end it just stopped, prior to the edge of the rad returns actually getting here. Seems to have done the same thing... It's winding down everywhere so it's not like a loss or anything. Dry air undercutting when the wind shifted NW dooms the storm Decent event. wind snow combo ! Est 12" but will need to corroborate. Too much drift fins. Anywhere flat sort of scoured some

Makes you wonder what might have been had this storm move by thru a closer window

Don't suffer any recency bias ( or let yourself give into it - ). What just took place was during a quasi relaxed period, in which events at smaller scales, relative to the larger synopsis', are conserved. That pattern out there is compressing again... ie, loses the relaxation; that's going to mean a different reality. S/Ws will look more like this instead