Typhoon Tip

Hold out huh No snow here on flat expanses. gone. We do have the piles though. It's a weird look. Almost like happening upon the collapsed ruins of an ancient era.

I thought 2020 had flurries in May... in fact, I know it did. I recall standing out on my friend's deck as a blown out virga CU came over and stray dendies floated by for a couple minutes. I'm like really - I don't know. Maybe it has to actually be 32 to damage orchard crops... and that was say 33 to 44 with very low freezing heights.

Hasn't that been a problem more frequently in this part of the country over the last 10 .. 15 years? The demon has been claiming early flowers. Dead flowers = no peaches. The balmy heat bursts we've lustfully, almost 'immorally' wallowed in some four or five February's just since 2010 ( some extraordinarily nearing 80!), ..to mention the ones in Marches... they seem to inexorably be followed by brick earth cold. It's an under-the-radar cost of CC ( that doesn't exist; thank god we're losing crops for no reason, huh - ) related whiplash extremes. You can't flip the seasonal switch that dramatically, intra-seasonally, without consequences to actual life. Risking a digression but I'll just say... humans really do have superior adaptability. But that in away makes them the best agency nature can create to destroy nature - because the shit they stank is tolerated by them, but starts slowly sterilizing all else. But, ...at some point when the seas no longer provide, and the soil loses too much arability to sustain ... it will be impossible to adapt to 0 food.

So long as the wind stays below skin tactility ... the sun will do a ton to offset the annoyance of cold air. It's not warm out? just to be clear. I realize there's some subjectivity to preference but 35 F will still cause hypothermia to anyone naked out there. That is my criteria - can a naked human being survive totally nude. If so, it's not cold. LOL. It probably still still pokes 43 or so. seriously tho, it's all about the sun and no wind at this time of year to reclaim some "nape value". If sitting on a park bench in that sun, and the wind is nary more than a zephyr's waft, creates this wonderful dichotomy to the senses. It's like you can tell it's cold, but at the same time, the protective invisible cocoon of warmth belies that reality - the sun is such liar, huh.

That'll happen everywhere in the continent except for this specific region right here

I think there is... 'micro climates' etc mind you, part of my post is tongue in cheek, but there is subtle truth to drool humor. But to me, there are plenty of days ... too many in fact, whence there is a "continental air mass" and we are not a part of it anywhere E of a NYC-PWM line... to fairly group us in the former.

It's that time of the year when unadulterated sunshine like what's gong on out there this morning, appeals like it must be fantastically warm and soothing outside... yet, you go out there and well... we're still perpetually cursed. Modern technology - think ghost detection at a haunted house - has exposed the demon haha

Which I've felt for years is a lazy broad brushed grouping and is false. If climate science needs to create a new definition, then they need to create a new definition ... but don't call this veritable peninsula that sticks out in the west Atlantic, and suffers weeks-worth of total days out of the year, tainted if not saturated by marine contamination, purely a continental distinction. Bull fuggin' shit. Calling SNE that, when it's 80 in ALB, yet 41 in Metro West population density enjoying slate gray sky and micro droplets on their faces whilst tinged aromas of like low-tide ... is an insult. This is a quasi marine/continental mash up here. I dunno what you call that but enough days are claimed perennially to acknowledge it's something other than purely continental.

There may be a 4 or hr period of heavy rains with embedded/elevated thunder ... Sunday overnight. It's been in the all the guidance for days really. Mainly, I've suspended much thought because I've seen that "warm sector dent" many times in the past then flatten out in short range. There's a stalwart persistence in this case, also being shared among multi guidance. So maybe it has legs. Mild wet warm sector on Monday. Euro QPF illustration with what looks like isolated quasi SCs that afternoon. heh

Bump

It looked that way to me... I haven't followed up on that so no bullets. However, I did look over the 100 thru 10hPa for temperature plumes and there were some at the time. It was not clear this was an en masse downward propagation. There was, however, a geopotential bulge that was splitting around the SE U.S. ridge... and that was collocated 100hPa level showing the flow moving around that curved "obstruction" I'm personally believing these exception warm burst are probably extending the tropopausal heights in some cases as an increasing phenomenon. This, by the way, isn't the first time I've seen this in the past 10 years. warm domes that are bumping those exceptional altitudes from below. interesting. This happened in late autumn last year, too - there was a lot of meme blizzard about SSWs that didn't pan out.

not sure if this old Intellicast ptype is right but if so... it's cat paws or wet snow or virga

There is 0 irony there. One needs to think and start to understand more intimately, the rudimentary knowledge and associations about how these geological system work. When you doubt ... from a position uneducated, the information and raw data that is coming from that type and scale of sophistication, just keep in mind that the same scientific processes you doubt are how and why you can even type doubts on your phone or pc

Yeah, I like that Ray ... Thing is, I don't think the distinction is a trivial matter - if we're going to try and understand how these the end of the world scenarios, we can't really be calling a convention trident missiles, icbms ... lol actually not so funny when the U.S. is choking off China's oil..

Those are all warm index complexions..

LOL ... dude, are paraphrasing me ...ha seriously, I have been using that metaphor for this for the last 10 years. rock on!

no I recall you mentioning that last september. I nailed the early blocking/front loaded winter. I'm not 'taking credit' for that, as it was a pot shot sort of sardonic intimation in a drive-by paragraph in one of the seasonal outlook threads. However, I did clearly state that the best hope for winter expression this year would be earlier/front loaded, with a colder time of it. I also stated in said paragraph that I thought we'd be flowering by February. How did that work out!? haha. so..., (A + F)/2 = C grade. i really don't give a shit. 'sides, the Feb call was definitely not deferential to any method other than thinking it's hard to get DJF end-to-end cold in this latter era of CC so may as well blast the late winter away. oops We did not have a propagating SSW this year. It's pretty clear if one looks at the geopotential height history at the 500 through 50 hPa sigmas, those warm bulges came from beneath. The only reason I haven't been more vocal about it is because .... what difference does it make? Either way resulted blocking which established super synoptic CCBs into N/A. We've had more loading pattern variances this year than I can count.

Meh... not really. Factually, that product covers the 99 years between 1901 and 2000, only. Factually, the compendium of science in climate change is based upon Math, Physics, and Chemistry, beginning ~ the late Proterozoic geologic eon, which covers the last 480+ million years. Relative to that range, there are changes now that exceed the change rates that have occurred at any time during the last half billion years. However, if the 2nd paragraph is true - which it is cannot be controverted with any veracious objectivity, than the first paragraph has confidence as to its significance. Understanding and knowing that is purely a function of whether the person is smart enough or not. It's far in a way more likely that the planetary system is lagging behind the change being forced within it, too fast. In other words, it is still responding. Doing so in 2023 like surges is troubling to put it nicely. The next surge in wholesale planetary temperature ( ie. 2023) may not be a single degree. NO one saw the first surge... ALL opinions on the next are meaningless, until the former lag, and the latter surge, have been explained by Math, Physics, and Chemistry. The data recency discussion is apples and oranges to ^. Conflating concepts and utility.

Heh ... yeah. Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, right or wrong. I just provide the data, as other's do, as it arrives. For me, people can take or leave it - because they are also entitled to do that, too. It just is what it is.

mm... Last time the ENSO mode began to shift into a similar range as that which is forecast now ... the entire planet surged a clad degree C, unilaterally, everywhere, air, sea and air-sea. The whole planet That should have really sent more shutters than it did through every inhabitant of this World. Probably, the shear scale of that in March of 2023 was so immense it simply escapes the common ability to dimensionalize the implications, thus crickets... Either way, whether this species cares to care, can, or won't aside, mathematically that maens there is large climate uncertainty, one that unfurled right before our eyes... one that could do so again. And the changes now as we see switch into a warmer mode of ENSO ... I think it behooves everyone, everywhere, to consider that even RONI may not be sufficient as an approach. Raising an entire planetary system by a full deg C is so vastly beyond a single ENSO mode's typical correlation, it forces the conclusion that ENSO's relevancy is increasingly subsumed

This looks like a pretty typical ANA blizzard at 3,000 feet

Doesn't appear much of that impressive rad display over eastern PA to eastern NY is actually reaching the ground?