Typhoon Tip

We talked about it last night or maybe it was a night before? QPF is not nearly as important as identifying the machinery the cyclone at this range cause that’s gonna get moved around like kids with finger paint for the next 24 to 48 hours.

I looked at it. It’s not that noticeable. Put it this way it’s within a margin of air of noise and it doesn’t make any difference. It’s actually deeper so it’s splitting hairs The biggest difference is the QPF distribution, but we’ve already been over that. There’s more guidance source is still doing the northwest ticking so I don’t think it means anything yet. We need more than one cycle that and it has to be more obvious than what I’m seeing

He’s probably waiting on NWS to pull their trigger

Yeah, I don’t think the northwest trend is really done until we can verify that across two complete cycles Still plenty of time folks

The differences between the 18 Z and the 00z GFS are attributable to noise and are essentially meaningless. i’m not even sure this one counts as stopping the trend Northwest. we need to get another cycle because this looks like it’s almost an identical track. It’s too close to judge. The defining difference is that QPF distribution; it’s probably splitting hairs when the pressure is actually deeper on this solution,below 970.

It’s not done until it stops trending too As far as I can tell all the early models are coming out on average and in blend still ticking northwest

Not to throw shade, but NWS is gonna have a lot of work to do in the morning They have to do a sweeping headline revamp, almost propaganda, expressed to try and catch up with this thing. And it’s not just snow I mean, we have got a real problem with marine interests due to the lunar tide cycle coinciding with this beast. And then there’s the wind problem too. There’s gonna be borderline high wind, warning criteria gusts

Fwiw

NooOOO snow for you ONE YEAR!

Even if we get a fraction of that total snow, those winds are gonna blow that around in a blinding rage. It’s gonna be totally a freak show out there.

Guys, I’m just yanking chains It’s fine to go with that like I said, I mean, you can always update it if we need to go either direction

Lol it’s not enough.

Yeah, I don’t see any harm in doing that… There really is nothing weenie about that. It’s just too overwhelming at this point. I mean, if we’re serious, we should be aware of this can be updated in the future. We’re still 2 1/2 days away from this thing.

Pretty high likeliness of a occurrence considering it has a relative snow hole over Kevin

Not enough

Candidate for a podcast/ or radio show

That may be gravity wave attributable in CT on the NAM.

One of the more fantastic en masse ens corrections for a system that impressively deep ( in terms of implication) I've seen at 72+ hours ... Here's the thing, usually that type of depth in an ens mean isn't really seen until it's almost on top of the event - it's an indication that there are few if any really, members that stray off into shitsville. Stunning collocated agreement in amplitude - but then to move that to that particular location ...yikes. I don't wanna over state what the models are ... pretty much overstating for us. But if the Euro comes in at this sort of range and marries to the GFS, confidence in this going from an impressive event to a blockbuster/historic implication goes up a notch. Which then would enter the next level problem. Grandiosity is not really one can forecast very well or count on - rarely so. It almost has to materialize out of just an impressive looking storm that then goes out of control. The last time a system modeled historic, and ended up that way, is definitely 1993 and perhaps waiting 30 years to see that again. Interesting aspects going on now..

Late last night I recall musing a 50/50 chance that we were about to see the full Monty solution. I thought it might come per the 00z ... In principle, it seems the last 18 hours in aggregate were really taking the clothes off. This run of the NAM/GFS seem to have finally pulled the trigger on availing of that unused spatial aspect in the modeled trough geometry - there's been NW adjustment room for this all along.

There it is... up under LI boom

GFS did roundly better - so far - no argument. We'll see how it finally verifies before rendering the final comparison. Having said that, in fairness, the other models have come or are coming around, in time. Let's not get crazy. It's day 3/4 and we have this going on. It's not like these other guidance dawned on the day and waited until that 7 am run to collapse in favor of an outlier.

I get it... but, we have to bear in mind, Upton has the population of alien world living inside 50 buroughs ... It's thankless job for them, because they are not culpable if they are wrong about a storm, but they get their nuts pulverized if they wrong about a sunny day. They kinda have to lean on warning the public because of the unfairness.

I told you earlier...I've been using my Jedi powers to move that house sucker low to LI... My plan is almost complete -

Bump … no sooner

Ha! so elegantly conservative ... awesome