Typhoon Tip

Heh … Finally got to see that 18 ZGFS That’s quite a CCB head it backs in there on the 15th/16th one

yeah...now the GFS is throwing the 22nd at us ... get the f out here with that. i think we've covered just about every date between the 14th and 25th at this point... none of this shit can be trusted - not even standard amount for this range, either. Particularly bad with continuity.

Those wave spaces are competing with one another. Remove either, boom. Not sure one or the other won't become dominant over the days to come - which one? no idea. But should that not happen, it won't be impossible the we either miss both, or end up with an event that's hardly worth a thread. By the way bro, ignore it

If next week fails to deliver, this winter can go f itself. another on an ass heap of 'no, this winter's going to be much better' history lol

Euro's all over the place not saying your wrong or even off ...but we're analyzing shitness from where i'm sitting, this one run appears to be favoring the 2nd wave in that broadly interfering headache, while simultaneously speeding up the 2nd wave... it was the 19th and 20th last night. yikes

you do get the sense there's incremental improvements. It's just that the flow being stressed east of the W biased ridge isn't [ probably ] going to provide an arena for chunk move in this case. Truth be told ... the position of that PNA ridge actually argues for a storm track between Detroit and Buffalo. That'd be a hoot. Hasn't been a model run yet painting that dystopian image hahaha.

well...it's gotta pick one or the other... these two have been tussling in the modeled flow for day's at this point. The latter of the two is obtrusive - it's there because of ( probably ) the "error proneness" of the western ridge being as far west as the GFS keeps placing it. The standard dimensions for L/W spacing doesn't allow the trough aspect to be coherent.. The models "don't know" what is dominant yet nor it's form - not very well. Anyway, if the ridge doesn't improve, the 2nd wave may end up going down the same disruptive route given time. I'm warning y'all - I'm not wrong about this. The determinism is shaky because of it. It would be a lot easier if the PNA ridge part of the total wave space would just be a little more east. By the way, the 2nd of the two is not as well supported by index timing but ... that is actually more negotiable than trying to stretch the trough down stream of that PNA ridge

I maintain a larger reason for this is because the +PNA ridge flex is choosing a position too far W. The flow is tending schism east across CONUS downstream... causing timing and placement issues. If the ridge were more E, that would focus and also iron out which waves are dominate and absorb the others such that it can be the main player. I think if there's a "like-able" and "wanted" solution, it will be if/when the +PNA ridge is correct E. Even if incrementally would help...

I've been mentioning this the last couple of days ... the 12z op GFS run beautifully makes exhibition of my point. Wave interference is a problem ...this spacing is too close. Luckily at D7 there's time to improve this. We'll see what the other runs do, but they've also been exhibiting spacing contention issues... I maintain a larger reason for this is because the +PNA ridge flex is choosing a position too far W. The flow is tending schism east across CONUS... causing timing and placement issues. If the ridge were more E, that would focus and also iron out which waves are dominate and absorb the others such that it can be the main player.

If you expand that product to the charts for 7 and 10 day lags you can see the recency of error. I've noticed that every now and again those curves divorce pretty extreme. It's like the ens have memory that is cumulative - and then every couple of weeks it resets... This is particularly true with the PNA. What's weird, the NAO is the more stochastic, exhibiting larger variance and pour predictive skill in general - yet, the errors at D7 and 10 make it look like the GEFs must be an oracle. Bull shiiiiiiit

LOL ... haha yup, set up the easy recliner with towels, tie off the upper arm with the rubber...and start tapping the hit vein, the dopa delivery is always here!

not that anyone asked but ... i feel now until Feb 8 is winter regardless of temperature anomalies. it's really more of whether the pattern is compensating for the sun challenges at this latitude/dates. That doesn't make it non-winter though. the earth really needs to get it's tilt across whatever degrees from vertical it is on or around Feb 8 before i consider non-winter. "consider" - that doen't mean declared. It depends on the year at hand. Obviously, in 2015... Feb 8th didn't mean shit. But, other years, you feel the sun and south side flower beds have little crokus shoots. the snow's been beaten back to the shady woods and you're putting up +5s ... it's not very winter like when it's like that and then combined, the sun's left the min and soaks us. so it depends on the year. but without the sun, heh... it's winter. it's just a matter of whether the winter is what we want it do be.

yeah, noticing on sat/vis loop ...there's some environmental tussle going on where the S/SW flow is running over the top of this shallow radiative cooled dense BL air. instantiating a very low very shallow overrunning lift. Probably not a well modeled circumstantial feed-back. The strata that is the result is like super thin but with a low early Jan sun angle, that's enough to blot out and shade. if we can keep the mid and upper level clouds at bay, eventually we'll warm enough that this will mix out but some places may get a couple hours of ceiling first.

GFS' recent runs hinting at that ... My only point before is that there's wave interference that is negative. That trough totality, albeit containing some potent embedded S/W at beta scales, is in fact positively tilted. The QUE vortex up there is in bad spot climo and physics-wise. These aren't really disputable. But he brought up a good point about looping and seeing the history, and the wind barbs are turning more S along and off-shore, so that's indicative of slowing - or having the ability to do so - the progressive nature overall. The WI dive probably catches, and then the phase ends up potency has enough - your "hook and latter" low fits that. But ... shit this can all change of course. it's fun to jockey the model runs LOL

yeah, no question there. you know there's a chance we could mix some. the NAM's grid has mid BL winds over 20 kts from the SW at 18z. might just get it done

It's going to be an interesting challenge for the feeble early January sun. 50 is a 32 F recovery for a lot of these locales around here. Easier done even a month from now.

ah yeah. no did not loop it. I was in fact knee jerk reacting to that as a scalar "nice looking set up". Which if we didn't know the history, I would still argue that doesn't look that good. However, upon knowing/looping, yeah we can see that the wind barbs along and off the EC are pivoting toward more SW from W/WSW direction.. That's some slowing of the progressive aspect; probably going to be enough to allow that WI knife to 'catch up'. Still don't like the QUE position up there but probably what happens is there's a potent result with a very sharp N deform axis type deal

nah, too positively sloped overall. those wave spaces are negatively interfering with one another. it's not those that is the problem... it's big to small that's the issue. There's not enough s/w ridging rolling out ahead of the whole structure... The flow is angular but flat leaving the eastern sea-board. It's doing that because the flow was originally more ridged there, and then it got compressed... so the flow is fast/too fast, such that when that amplitude then arrives, it can differentiate the field and cause WAA to form which then creates the S/W ridging... this is complex to explain and most people don't get it. they just get angry and think your trolling but that's going anywhere very special wit that leading

man these operational runs are all fucked up with wave spacing/interference schemes. The indexes nailed this period... well, so far - nothings verified yet. But the +PNA, however west biased or whatever is going to happen. Anyway, the best fit for the amplifying +PNA at mid month is actually the 24th phantom system on the GFS' 00z. But by then, the +PNA is in a state of decay - which is also not a certainty anyway. It's like we should be seeing a 24th type look on the 14-15-16 period but the field is mired down by wave space issues which is stopping that from happening. The 00z GFS was dubious with that 970mb micro cyclone. It's nice eye candy sitting there with category 2 hurricane winds and choke snow a stones through E of Logan like that, but whenever you see a system that is dimensional-challenged in the midst of a large/huge amplification like that it is always suspect and pretty much never happens. It's like the model physics are responding to the immense volatility of the total pattern, and then that triggers a systems not well coupled to the that larger field - otherwise...the system should be larger. Like the 20fukum4th! uh-nnoying. You can see the wave interference in the ens means of both the EPS and GEFs. There is a deep anomaly at the longitude of the Tenn. Valley on the 15th, and then while the ridge stays fixed in position out west, the nadir is suddenly repositioned back toward St Louise on the 17th. That's indicative of wave contention in the means. That's prooobably why they have been having issues getting more coherent with any cyclone signals.

https://phys.org/news/2026-01-ocean-temperatures-high.html

Slightly colder run again but moving too fast would mitigate

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing

So I'm looking for the 15th S/W spacing and it's not even in our hemisphere until 30+ hours ... that circle in the top left half way to Japan appears to trace. Yeah, about as close to 100% chance that this things going to morph all over hell and gone before we need to worry about it

Everyone's hung up on phasing for some reason... I was under the impression this 15th ish was Miller A Those aren't phases usually until the get past our latitudes; the clio on Mill As is that they get captured near NS or NF and then we see why Baffin Island is basically just big bald barren rock. personally I haven't seen much evidence that this was going to be a subsume or any other type of phasing ?

yup, Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream.