Typhoon Tip

This evolution is less likely than the previous handling. +PNA ridge axis demos zero propagation toward the E between the 12z and 18z; there's really no mechanical reason to foist the deep layer farther E. If anything, the previous run ( and this one certainly by same convention - ) was too far E.

WPC's caught on

Much better dendrites than that heavy fog we had overnight, albeit falling lighter

Yeah... it would be. 1kt to 1mb conversion suggests that 73kt sustained middle BL flow into coastal Maine all the way down... It's just one solution. We don't need hyper bombs to get the point across here. I will say though ... I'm not surprised we are seeing these solution ..erupting - for lack of better word - out of the canvas given to the way the indexes have been ... anyway, I figure we are watching for this still.

This depiction looks more photogenic muah hahahaha

I was agreeing with you ... I rewrote that "I personally would, too" poorly written. ha

Oh my god

Mmm I personally would too I don't think it's handling the position(s) is/are very supported by the basics of wave geometric constraints in having the +PNA ridge longitude that far W. For this model ..? I'd be lean on the fact that it has a system at all - it'll be the last guidance to come NW typically in N/stream phasing

Yeah all these models have at one time or the other flashed out nudity at us... But the key in recency here is that we are really coalescing and picking an actual date/event. I was just looking at the AI Euro runs from 00z and 06z overnight... ( I still need to get used to the fact that these "tools" exist, how/when/biases in using them - ) and yeah. Those two runs fit right in. The 06z run is really a GOAT type storm from PHL-PWM

Yeah...we're just having fun with the eye-candy stuff here but still... jesus h christ with that thing. 20-30 with that look? no... the wind would scour it all as well as roofs trees and infrastructure. That's is a hyper bomb. 962 getting captured? That's a Cat 3 hurricane in a blizzard. Unlikely to succeed reality but it sure is fun, huh!

`Gulp!

Man... haha that 06z ICON was going to be among other greats and GOATs if that were allowed to move out beyond 120 hours. That's a Miller A that gets captured by an N/Stream cutting off trough with a mid and u/a cold air anomally that's that like -5 SD. Jesus Christ! That's like a matter coming into contact with anti-matter.

Yeah there's been some solutions spitting out storms at different dates between the 28th and the 3rd ... Really, the whole period is/was susceptible. However, the recent runs are honing the 1st *(see the dates on the charts being provided). It all would have been the same, really. Uuuusally, though, it's the front side, between the rising inflection and max of the +PNA is when things happen. Then if you are lucky ... it pulses with periodicity such that you get mainenance storms after the fact - but let's not get greedy just yet. haha. The 1st is better situated relative to that and the timing et al.

Okay so ... some key synoptic facets. 1 the western end of the modulating SPV 2 the interloping S/Stream injecting underneath 3 the heights over the SW Atl Basin are psuedo relaxed; evidenced by larger gap in isohypses, with balanced geostrophic wind only 30 kts, and heights lower the 582 or Miami ( as proxy). What I'm not showing in this image is the western ridge/+PNA response, because it is yet to happen. In two more days after this 81 hour Euro solution from 06z, the western ridge surges polarward.. right along a very complementary longitude. This helps to trigger the N/stream's descent in latitude through the lakes - that western fragmentation of the SPV. As this happen.. the 3 is not as shearing/destructively interfering as it would be if the heights were higher and the balanced geos. wind was strong...such that the whole structure is allowed to conserve more of it's amplitude as the phasing commences... sex happens... and it all gives birth to a storm.

Ha Ha Ha my company has a ...wait for it! SNOW DAY.

Hard to compare? I realize you're making conjecture and it's all good and fair. But this thing ending today, and that thing in 6 days are apples and oranges in the atmospheric setting and governing kinematics. So favoring has to just be whether it exists or not ... I admittedly lapsed on this most recent one. I discussed this in the storm thread ... But this one appears to also be an index signal if we ( or I - ) had bothered to look. About 10 days ago there was a very coherent MJO phase 6 wave space in the RMM. This has a strong correlation to warmer than normal across the eastern 2/3rd of the middle continent. This timed with typical MJO lag for this same period as the storm... so what gives? Well, the intense -EPO cold load that set up right on top of it. It's really a clash of two disparate implications... the STJ that came across the Baja and went over Texas, was the MJO wave termination mechanics, then encountering a -3 SD arctic invasion. Amazing really... It was all MJO warm/moisture going over top an arctic dome. There really was only weak low pressure...

Yes... one idiosyncrasy as we observe this thing in these early pages ... there is a preponderance of very deep members. That's been a thing with this for the past week's worth of modeling... the variance has been very all or nothing. I find that particular behavior interesting. Either the model in question has nothing ... or something sub-980 bombing. That's red flag as to potential - which we already know is there... but the member variance is typically narrower and closer to a mean that is more middling. Sub 980s are spread NW

Really fundamentally flawless in this 06z operational Euro and it's D6 ... not D9... But again, I'm more confidence established on some kind of system in this window, because as I've been pointing out for well over a week, the indexes have been firing warning shots across the bow the whole time.

Yeah, I just saw the 06z Euro... primitive albeit impressive attempt at continuity.

lots to sort out but at least for the moment, they all look like pieces of cryo-dystopic candy

Anomalous upper pattern appears to finally be emerging into well-established and very stable/persistent index signal. This could have been the opener for the arriving February thread, however, I feel this has some statistical significance that is higher than the background climo; it should be isolated at this time when considering these very recent ensemble trends shown below. These are 00z cycle of the Euro/GEFs/GEPs, left to right, centered on 168 hours. Note, the previous cycle were quite vague if qualitatively non-existent compared to these panels. This is a sudden thrust into emergence, of a well-established and persistent multi-sourced index signal. The operation renditions of the evolution of this are little unusual, for the time being... hints there of a 'hook in latter' scenario, where the flow rotates around and any system might appear initially destined to run away out to sea... However, as the deep layer rotates in time, the surface reflection is captured ... moves due N or even NW. This veneer of this Euro suggests something of blizzard from NYC-BOS ... 00z centered on 150 hours. I haven't delved into details though and wouldn't given to this still emerging. I feel this may be a back NW emergence ... like the Boxing Day storm in 2010, but doing so perhaps along different time scales. Lastly, this can be juggernaut. It is more of a subsume model phasing type. This is not an isentropic driven ordeal. It has ceiling potential that much higher in terms of deeper tropospheric structure. The implications/threat spectrum are thus more than just snow totals. This comes with an assortment of wind/tide/snow/problems to infrastructure ... the usual suspects. Subsumers are powerful because when you have a SPV fragmentation biding time, and then as an interloping S/Stream impulse passes underneath, the cold of N and the latency of warmth from the S or directly infused. For muse, the N/Stream pounces S- it's like 'predatory wave behavior' If you put the 500 mb heights into loop, you can see how it comes down and seems to engulf ... giving the allusion of ingesting the S/stream. And then the new total has grown in amplitude and implication.

One way or another, the fast atmosphere wins, and claims some hours off this thing

12” S/BR 11F

Damn… I thought you guys were talking about the AI euro That’s the actual euro at 18 Z That would be quite the massive snow for the DC - Philly region on that look right there. That almost looks like it would maybe then dress straight east unless there can be more -NAO south of Nova Scotia. That’s only six days away. And it’s in that index window that I was hitting at over the last 10 days. Yeah the models just don’t seem to really wanna commit to that, though. I almost wonder if the speed of the atmosphere wave traffic being pretty high it’s kind of blinding Cause usually when these indexes flag signal that strongly come Hell or high water or something happens. But I guess with 6 days to play that’s enough time to manifest. We’ll see.

Yeah, I’ve made it no secret that I tend to check out by mid February most years Little hypocrisy because if we’re gonna have an 1888 March bomb or something or 1993 or 1956, whatever obviously I’ll tune back in, but that’s mostly for the meteorological exotic nature of what’s going on. But if it’s just gonna be run-of-the-mill snowing five or 6 inches on April 20 when you can see it in the weather charts that six days later it’s gonna be up to 60° again. I don’t care for that. Another person probably doesn’t feel the same way in here. People croon for it in April. It’s like people! ha ha ha.