Typhoon Tip

yep, went from under yesterday by hour, to over yesterday by hour. 60 It'll make tomorrow's polar inches feel so great

In the context relating 'settled' to a global perspective of CC, vs the detailing sciences ongoing: The former is settled, and is fundamentally true. The latter is not. That's all he has to say. Unfortunately, ... the tenor of the op ed casts doubt over the total principle by confusing a key difference - yes, even though he writes words to the affect of not denying. It has to be spelled out cleaner to the general hoi polloi. Whether he intends to or not, it erodes confidence in a already, nearly insurmountable task of getting total society to believe there is a problem, one significant enough to admit it's an existential threat at a species level - there's a long way to go in a situation that has a shorter distance to the cliff than most are even aware. We can jump an entire planetary system by a whole degree ( 2023) - that occurrence is certainly fantastic in itself (if perhaps a bit terrifying...), but the under-acknowledged warning is that we are incapable of seeing ramifications before they happen ... what's the next jump going to be, missed while we were arguing over semantics? digressing. "Settled" pertains to the principal of climate change. IT'S SETTLED. Specific linking human activity since the IR is all but unbearable to deny, given math and physics for f' sake. But there is a complex cause and effect, with a lot of synergy that really can't be settled - but that's conflating an uncertainty realm of the discrete, with the governing principle. Quibbling over details and decimals, as though the uncertainty in these subsidiary sciences unsettles CC is not right. In fact, those authoring peer reviewed papers, out and consort among the ambit of research, all will tell you there are uncertainties but the purpose of telling everyone that CC isn't settled intellectually, is false.

what we really need is to have it be after the equinox sun intensity - too early to rely on ole sol when it's tepidly low in the sky until noon. yeah we're out of the solar min, but the transition is still on the weak end

calm and not mixing ... maybe there's like an 11:45 am temp bounce to catch up the lower els.

We're presently 6 degrees behind yesterday and today is supposed to be warmer.

39 up at ORH and 24 down here in the Nashoba Valley ... Superb radiational cooling in calm wind

You're old enough to remember the days when clock reset was the first Sunday in April, and the 2nd Sunday in October. I like the sun not setting in the middle of the afternoon in October ... by November it doesn't matter because the weather is typically shitty to be outside anyway by then, so part of me thinks it should wait until the solar min begins on November 8th- the way it was changed to back in 2002 I think it was. On the flip side, I like having the sun later in the day in the spring - by the time April rolls around it's half way to summer so we're spending too much time with dark while awake if we wait that late to do it. But for others they need more daylight in the morning so waiting until April is better for them; moving ahead an hour doesn't matter by then as much. So, from a purely selfish perspective I wish they'd just make like this, all the time. But I realize that wouldn't be very good for the rest of society. When I was a child in western lower Michigan, the sun set on June 21 at like 9:40 pm. They are the very western end of the time zone, absolutely maxing out to the last minute. 2 hr drive west and you get two 9'0clocks. Anyway, in the winter, with standard time, the sun rises at like 8 in the morning... so if they left it like this, it would be 9 am sun rise ... Can you imagine that? I guess at the end of the day there's no way to appease everyone. The only way to do it is to move the work day standard with the clock. Such that it's 10 am in the winter, and 8 or so in the summer... I dunno. Maybe humanity needs to relo to a new planet with 36 hour days and 6 hour nights. haha

makes my point really ... Last of the -EPOness waned out last week, so onward we got this recent final cold departure and now we're out. Basically, we are becoming more and more reliant on direct cold loading because otherwise our "polar air mass rot rate" is a shorter recovery window, which is definitely going to be the case in March anyway. Again, the catch-22 there is that if there is a cold direct source, the pattern is compressed ...which limits storm production. Attribution giving us more inches than snow ...

Something tells me Ineedsnow would say that if it were July 4th weekend with another of those 100 year 40 F coastals like 2020

60 here ... warmest day time temp for this location since... I dunno November maybe - MAV did better than MET

The initialization will contain the present information. Sure. Time is the variable there... out in time, the physics may have some error where is slowing field variable timings, perhaps an emergent property; a consequence of less than very finite scaled/resolution in the interactivity. Supposition on that cause ... and, they are not slow (or as much) per se in the first 72 to 96 hrs ... it's endemic to the longer range. Curvature in the flow tends to end up less curved, in lieu of 'stretching' in the west to east direction, along with quickening pace of both base-line geostrophic velocities, and the wave propagation speeds. One has to consider all this in a nuanced way. Tendency gets embedded in the day-to-day, and the problem with tendency is that there may or may not be a very coherent manifesting of whatever it is you're looking for at any given point in time/interval on the model illustrations. But given time ... the tendency will reveal more so in aggregate if subtle corrections. Then at other times, it just straight is obvious. This recent thing with the Mar 9/10 blizzard the GFS had... very good example of all this really.

Oh ..I'm all but convinced I know what/where the origination of the problem is: perception yet again ... but this is case it is the "miss"guidance of guidance that is causing it. I would consider speeding up as a d(modulation) as causal. The models "see" something in the physical temporal horizon ( D10 say ..or even out around 13), *HOWEVER* they are seeing a timing of interacting massfields that is being assessed slower than it really will be when said time frame arrives into nearer terms. Consequence of that too-slow error, they necessarily speed up ... the big event goes with it or gets changed..etc. This has been a leitmotif actually going back many winters. I've been opining this observations or the like going back ... 2008 even. It's just getting more egregious in recency. The last 5 years in particular, the hemisphere is setting air-land speed records for intercontinental flights on W--> E trajectories, while the models are trying to sell slow moving bombs... The latter will likely not survive the speeding up the models will have to do. Even if it's only speeding up a little... ? some sort of acceleration is required the majority of eval periods, and these events get negatively interfered by it.

heh, actually 54 at FIT now... maybe this 55 is legit.

Well, it's the peril of the perception crisis that came about during this socio-technological experiment of recent Humanity. Just like everything else that is "real" in this age of alternates and miss-information, they are subsuming objective truth. Now ... every season has a duality. Jesus, I feel like Morpheus speaking to Neo in the Matrix, there is the real, vs the fantasies and paragons created by media. And by " media" we mean everything that is audience oriented. Not just FOX, CNN ...ABC and NBC...or whatever. All media and these, combined. The two seasons happen concurrently ... there is winter, and the duality with a perception of winter. Oh, once in a blue moon they may come to a nexus and share a sense of rightfulness. But that requires a 944 mb stalled 60" mortality blizzard parked on the eastern tip of Long Island. Because this latter aspect happens 'so often' most of the time, the illusory winter seems to be preferential. haha Seriously, there is a troubling problem with information at this latter end of the Information Era of Humanity - the current state distinction. Weather access/modeling and cinema just being available to any yahoo without real or proven, or sustaining rank ... you're not going to get sensibility. 20-30" failures are more common. Meanwhile, no officiated source ( we hope ...) that is of a proven rank and sophistication ever said anything like that. It's not just media - as machinery... It's a humanity crisis of information.

This is the first day where diurnal heating presses the home site temperatures higher than the NWS sites. The latter is - in theory ... - more precise. But fwiw 51 to 53 at all those within a couple clicks of my location, while 50 at FIT

Yeah Brian ... they're attempting to place that ad shit in lower priority sub forums hoping probably not to be detected right away. The climate one got hit by the Temu assault team

Oh I had that sentiment ( bold ) well before that silly model run. GFS actually even tried to sell that for consecutive runs, too ... three cycles I think maybe. Even the ensemble mean had a 992 mb low passing through the climate key slot of jaggov model porn during that days' worth of model runs. None of the other guidance of course ... and we knew... Save for anyone that hides their hope and emotional investment behind the cozy euphemism, 'we just don't know' In a fairer objective take, I score this last winter with a passing grade purely because it was cold and there was snow on the ground for like 9 weeks or something. It may have only been 4 or 5" ( think 11 at greatest), but that pack resistance was amazing considering how gossamer fragile a 4 and half inch layer is.. It became like getting a 100 on the mid term exam while doing shitting otherwise. The teacher has to give the kid a C, though reluctantly. BUT, that reluctance is not going to protract said teachers dreams and desires to keep teaching the class. This one was ready for fuggin summer vacation before the final, ...a final that as Scott and I were noting earlier, seems to almost not even be happening. It's like the class and the teacher just up and left the room ... of course leaving one or two autistic types behind that don't really 'get it' haha Yeah, this period after this last most recent cold snap has looked like more seasonal oscillations of cold and not as knifed. The warm periods will probably resume the background climate signal with the usual decimals or whole degree having to be added thereafter and exceeding over guidance etc. When does grass green and forsythias bud... That may be happening S already not sure.

It's the Internet's fault ... Well, more precisely it's humanities' fault for their innovation in creating the Internet. Civility was created after millennia of trial and error, a storied history of many successes that would ultimately destabilize. The end result is merely vestigially carried onward. It was just a matter of time and erosion. If they managed by without succumbing to external factors, endemic internal factors seem unavoidable to emerge. The Romans let opulence breed apathy, then it is thought lead piping and toxicity exposure also contributed. A dumbing down at society scales ... eventually sloth and degradation of virtuosity, all of it, left them vulnerable at last to the Visigoths. In modernity, we have an incredibly, though probably not originally anticipated, destabilizing influence that resulted when we gave infinitum and unguarded information to commoner peoples. You know ... in some sort of artistic or idealized vision, one might be inclined to think that's a good thing? Unlimited information. Yet, there are examples everywhere we look of how this has failed to lead to some sort of generic grand enlightenment; rather, proven a schismatic influence. And in fact, lowering intellectual returns results, then a negative feedback propagating dissension if not hysteria. We're asking people not mentally prepared, or even capable really of objectively filtering information that is too vastly beyond effective cognitition. Or even recognizing what is objective real. And that dysfunction is then empowered, as voters, to ultimately make decisions that effect policies at large scales? May as well be a sociological A-bomb. Perhaps it takes a PHD dissertation and a pass through refereeing to prove what is probably more academically obvious anyway, but that's unlikely to end well. More information is not a good thing for more than half the population, not when the information is both differentiating, and affecting. You probably don't let a stupid kid gain access to daddy's guns. Any administration rising to power through that the realm of election is precarious. This particular example? Given to the history of the United States heredity, its Constitution, ... just the standard of behavior since the Declaration Of Independence and the universal sense of mores and propriety, there is an indictment of something gone desperately wrong. The Internet sews distrust, fracturing from common acceptances (hence the schism), then, empowered after the fact when these formulating separatist island find one another and embolden their dissent. Thes etho-chambers of falsity then become the "real". It's an indictment that suggests that the commoner is simply not intelligent enough to right a decision. The elephant in the room. Voting ... fails... in a post modern era of Internet access. There's an indictment of moral intelligence. There's an indictment of virtuosity intelligence. There's an indictment of 'mathematical' intelligence. If you've ever heard of the D-Day clock? The compendium of different risk assessments, that are existential to a special level, include, nuclear warfare, climate change, and artificial intelligence. Perhaps we can circuit the Internet abstractly through AI, but that's a stretch. The Internet appears for the time being to be the greatest destructive force effective in a self-determination model. What is also interesting .. the emerging ramification of the Internets influencing total civility, may trigger any one of those D-Day clock events. Well, the clock ticks a fraction of a unit closer to midnight ... https://phys.org/news/2025-03-scientists-trump-threaten-climate-safety.html

Does anyone remember that big historic blizzard the GFS had for yesterday and today about a week ago ? heh. 28 to 47 in ~ 2 hrs here, matches the NWS sites too so it's not just an artifact of home siting, either.

Impressive 1 hour recovery here this morning... I love these fast diurnal delta days. It was 28 here at dawn, and it's 42 now spanning ~ 1.5 hours. 28 to 45 at near-by FIT

Ha .. I was just remarking that same sentiment to my self last hour. weird - It's like the guest of honor slipped away from the party while everyone was carrying on and then looking around, hey, what happened to Joe.

Tho guidance is yet to fully commit to an eastern ridge mid and late month the overnights do still move a couple of passes of warmth through the period. With cool downs being comparatively weaker, gives the allusion to moving the seasonal change from 1st to 2nd grade. Btw .. today appears to be a high "nape factor" ... Looks like 58's sprinkled around, with primarily warm March sun sky and much lighter wind .. this will create those comfortable moments that exceed the actual air temperature.

https://phys.org/news/2025-03-scientists-trump-threaten-climate-safety.html