Typhoon Tip

Scott's right ... perhaps do what one can to enjoy winter's glory for the next 7 or 8 days because after that the season's plug might be pulled. It's still over 8 days out, but it's also not a new signal. The indices have steadily been improving with coherency. - by the way, there is a March thread so technically this belongs over there. However, there persists a modest winter event signaled between 2-5th. Not altogether impressed for any chances prior to that, assuming reasonable model/indicator performance. The flow will be fast, however ...so that may limit that ability for the synoptic scaffold to evolve into a coastal - if the flow relaxes a little ... similarly to this last one, could become a relative signal inside a longer termed unfavorable correlation. Nested anomaly ... so we'll see. But for now, the operational GFS/Euro overnight were illustrating the limitation by keeping it a "swfe"/overrunning ooa March 3/4... Melt and mud kicks in like a seasonal light switch in these extended signals nearly on the heels of that.

mentioned this in the Feb thread but it looks like the indices are buckin' for a pretty major step out of winter after the first week of the month. Before that happens, there is a signal between the 2nd and 5th. Could turn out to be the season's 'retirement party' ... If the season gets called out of retirement briefly during bowling season, notwithstanding. haha. I'm ready... lets melt and mud season.

Pleasy weezie, with sugar on top...

we had stepped back up to moderate over the last couple of hours here. Together with wind gusting frequently to 40 made for low vis milky look out the window. It abruptly ended about 10 min ago. Vis jumped to 5+ mi inside of 5 minutes. I've seen this before here. One of the big storms in 2015 did this... we were doing just fine, the radar with est 2 more hours to go ...end it just stopped, prior to the edge of the rad returns actually getting here. Seems to have done the same thing... It's winding down everywhere so it's not like a loss or anything. Dry air undercutting when the wind shifted NW dooms the storm Decent event. wind snow combo ! Est 12" but will need to corroborate. Too much drift fins. Anywhere flat sort of scoured some

Makes you wonder what might have been had this storm move by thru a closer window

Don't suffer any recency bias ( or let yourself give into it - ). What just took place was during a quasi relaxed period, in which events at smaller scales, relative to the larger synopsis', are conserved. That pattern out there is compressing again... ie, loses the relaxation; that's going to mean a different reality. S/Ws will look more like this instead

Hopefully ...this is the temperature layout on April 10 at 2pm ( J/K)

Slow decay begins

That weather tap rad product seems to bias "looking good" ... I see those in here, than go look at this, and it doesn't appeal like a west thrust. It appeals like this negation gap is once again pulsing the situation down, and the primary max band is stuck

I always thought it would be interesting as a result, albeit tediously torturous as a study journey, to see if there is a predictable 'storm geometric' pattern that does this. One perhaps based upon how far a region is radially situated from the cyclone fixes. It just more than merely seems in a-priori history that this happens. I don't believe it can be completely caused by topographical difference, particularly considering that this ongoing band (which appears to be degenerative in pulses) actually should be up-slope assisted. I'm inclined to think that if this storm's axis of motion were 70 mi closer, this gap would have filled more and/or repositioned elsewhere. It would be cool to be able to suggest ( more formally) that the climatology for a storm moving passed like this one today means that this zone of relative min is likelier.

Honestly they look like nuisance events. The fast moving thing on Wed appears to be a diffusely defined polar warm front-cold front bundle relaying through at the speed of CC baseline fast velocity (haha). It's not even modeled to have much QPF and it really shouldn't given that sort of synoptic passage. The one on Friday has trended S, because it is trading amplitude. It is weaker, to the point of being a fast narrow almost ANA ribbon look. That's usually one step away from capitulating to oblivion. Those don't typically do more than cost windshield detergent as one keeps up with grimy road mist. If it comes back a little more, it's still moving fast in a progressive foot and just has too low of a ceiling to matter. If it comes back even more... maybe fast moving overrunning deal.

S est vis 1/4 mi S/BL S est 6" so far.

Indexes broadly like March 10 as the end. It's obviously negotiable at this time range, but in so far as seeking a spring thrust ... on or around then. Melt and mud season sets in. Prior to, there's a signal for activity between 2nd and 5th of March. There's smaller sub-index variety maintenance disturbances ( ex, this Friday) prior to, but a larger retirement party correction event could manifest during that first week.

It might be starting to expose what was going on with these late corrections that seemed odd early in the day. That’s when the storm is bombing It’s strange, but it’s like when it bombs hyper contracts in the models

Pretty fascinating, snow growth explosion going on over the monadnocks as that cold east flow’s forced up slope

I just mean models, how the snow gradient almost goes down to a dusting where Brian is It’s probably gonna be OK but it just seems like it’s gonna get further north than that - satellite lies sometimes.

You’re probably gonna have a temperature crash there even if it’s only three or 5°. It’ll be enough to dry it out some… But yeah, you don’t want to have loading in the trees when the wind suddenly picks up, especially if it’s isallobaric because it’ll just accelerate really quick and then that can be a problem.

I tell you that’s one of the most eerie looking IR satellite loops I’ve seen associated with a coastal system There’s gonna have to be a hell of a lot of slantwise defamation in order for all that cold cloud tops to not snow in north of us.

Couple of random bigger lakes, now mixed in with the flipping prisms

Fascinating like they’re a little bit convective, narrow bands, ripping West Northwest

I think some of this north of that main three level green band down there might be a little bit enhanced by the ocean because these echoes seem to be moving west north west while the band down there is slowly inching north up underneath and as it comes north it just overwhelms everything

Pixie dust snow just started here It’s very light, but the sky’s with that glowing butterscotch color It just smells pregnant with snow out there…

I wonder if that non-thunderstorm wind damage/event in SC was related to any kind of sting jet/tropopheric folding...

4-6" in this band alone

It stands for Moist or maybe it's mixed .. Absolute Unstable Layer. It's basically where the WCB splits near the occlusion triple point - the eastern split rides up the warm frontal glide and discipates into the entrance jet regions. The western split is the goodies! It peels back west on the N side of the cyclone cylinder..., rising over the cold wedge that is on the N and NW side of the occluded formation, where it is made to be exceptionally unstable in an elevated layer. This is where it services us with lightning and thunder snow rates, particularly if there is a 300 mb entrance jet fan on the N side of occluded boundary. That gives it a difluence assist and the lift can be insane where MAUL is delivering warm moist air ( into the snow growth region in cold cyclone models). I'll try and draw a picture of this...