Typhoon Tip

In my 30 years of modeling I've never seen a dam core plum below 516 at Cape Hatteras... I challenge anyone to find one. Kocin&Ucellini to NCEP's Library, I'm will to wager we are close to or at a record if/should that take place. I agree, ... the idea of moving something of that accord then bodily ENE through the perennial height wall of the west Atlantic is suspect in principle. There's much to question wrt to the models for doing that. Can it happen... rules are meant to be broke, but there's also a reason why that particular standard of behavior is very seldom seen. Just for one ... what's going to happen when that implosion in deep heights teases the b-c ambience extending across Gulf/land interface region out to E of GA/FL? The explosion that is not there but really should be.. would impose just an incredible convective feedback latency potential. We have to sit here and imagine, within constrained of learning and experience, that this faux missing component ( presently...) would foster the west correction on its own. No model seems to even be doing anything with that potential. Very suss. Another bugaboo for me... I have all kinds of problem with a ridge anchored over Idaho, and these models taking an already stretched Rossby signature, ...and straining my believability to even more tension by stretching into something like this... Wanna hear something funny? I mused that idea yesterday, 'gee I hope this doesn't end up over ALB'. Not happenin' As an afterthought, with a west vestigial -NAO going on, that also doesn't lend to longitudinal motion escaping the M/A latitudes.

This may be at least partial as an effective management tool for some ... WPC Extended Forecast Discussion The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes. In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint. However, the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected.

Heh... EPS mean shifted bodily SE ... consolidated at a deep pressure mean, too - it's not even in margin of error on that depiction - it's just flat bodily wrong, or, bodily right

I'm behind all you folks ( snow day yesterday means double duty today ) but I've never seen sub-516 dm heights in a closed trough at Cape Hatteras before (12 gfs). that's unworldy

people don't see a very obvious and direct hit, they get emotionally downtrodden, then ... interpret the models according to that emotive response. check.

Nah, these west 'leaning' members in this depiction would rage from D.C. to BOS

The ICON is not a dependable model even at this range, from my own experience. That said ... the 12z rendition of the wholesale evolution (operational) was in fact a marked improvement over the 00z. I don't pay enough attention to the off hour runs of this model - need more background on how it works/data feeds/initialization ...everything, which is not something I've been inclined to research given to the unstable performance I've noticed at anything beyond 60 or hours. But as as far as the former, there's time and space for trending.

just using your chart here... yeah, it's almost to the point of frustration that the models appear to be disconnecting the wave -space arguments in their physical result/processing. That ridge being over Idaho ...if anything that presupposes a position near WV with that tough axis.. which would probably parlay quite favorably. That's a bizarrely stretched looking gunk L/W filled with distractions...

I think we got about 2 ...maybe 3 cycles remaining. After that, it's probably a consensus go or no go

Heh, 06z EPS has collapsed latitude, and weaker, both

Alarming EPS members/spread orientation. Between that, together with the bump NW over prior cycle … clearly this wants to be W

This evolution is less likely than the previous handling. +PNA ridge axis demos zero propagation toward the E between the 12z and 18z; there's really no mechanical reason to foist the deep layer farther E. If anything, the previous run ( and this one certainly by same convention - ) was too far E.

WPC's caught on

Much better dendrites than that heavy fog we had overnight, albeit falling lighter

Yeah... it would be. 1kt to 1mb conversion suggests that 73kt sustained middle BL flow into coastal Maine all the way down... It's just one solution. We don't need hyper bombs to get the point across here. I will say though ... I'm not surprised we are seeing these solution ..erupting - for lack of better word - out of the canvas given to the way the indexes have been ... anyway, I figure we are watching for this still.

This depiction looks more photogenic muah hahahaha

I was agreeing with you ... I rewrote that "I personally would, too" poorly written. ha

Oh my god

Mmm I personally would too I don't think it's handling the position(s) is/are very supported by the basics of wave geometric constraints in having the +PNA ridge longitude that far W. For this model ..? I'd be lean on the fact that it has a system at all - it'll be the last guidance to come NW typically in N/stream phasing

Yeah all these models have at one time or the other flashed out nudity at us... But the key in recency here is that we are really coalescing and picking an actual date/event. I was just looking at the AI Euro runs from 00z and 06z overnight... ( I still need to get used to the fact that these "tools" exist, how/when/biases in using them - ) and yeah. Those two runs fit right in. The 06z run is really a GOAT type storm from PHL-PWM

Yeah...we're just having fun with the eye-candy stuff here but still... jesus h christ with that thing. 20-30 with that look? no... the wind would scour it all as well as roofs trees and infrastructure. That's is a hyper bomb. 962 getting captured? That's a Cat 3 hurricane in a blizzard. Unlikely to succeed reality but it sure is fun, huh!

`Gulp!

Man... haha that 06z ICON was going to be among other greats and GOATs if that were allowed to move out beyond 120 hours. That's a Miller A that gets captured by an N/Stream cutting off trough with a mid and u/a cold air anomally that's that like -5 SD. Jesus Christ! That's like a matter coming into contact with anti-matter.

Yeah there's been some solutions spitting out storms at different dates between the 28th and the 3rd ... Really, the whole period is/was susceptible. However, the recent runs are honing the 1st *(see the dates on the charts being provided). It all would have been the same, really. Uuuusally, though, it's the front side, between the rising inflection and max of the +PNA is when things happen. Then if you are lucky ... it pulses with periodicity such that you get mainenance storms after the fact - but let's not get greedy just yet. haha. The 1st is better situated relative to that and the timing et al.

Okay so ... some key synoptic facets. 1 the western end of the modulating SPV 2 the interloping S/Stream injecting underneath 3 the heights over the SW Atl Basin are psuedo relaxed; evidenced by larger gap in isohypses, with balanced geostrophic wind only 30 kts, and heights lower the 582 or Miami ( as proxy). What I'm not showing in this image is the western ridge/+PNA response, because it is yet to happen. In two more days after this 81 hour Euro solution from 06z, the western ridge surges polarward.. right along a very complementary longitude. This helps to trigger the N/stream's descent in latitude through the lakes - that western fragmentation of the SPV. As this happen.. the 3 is not as shearing/destructively interfering as it would be if the heights were higher and the balanced geos. wind was strong...such that the whole structure is allowed to conserve more of it's amplitude as the phasing commences... sex happens... and it all gives birth to a storm.