Typhoon Tip

UKMET trended favorably ... It's still not getting it done, but its trough cinema is rotating neutral with an attempt at neg as it curls through our longitude. 00z had the entire scope of it positive and pancaked, with nada. It seems with all this weight (multi source and amp) we have signal here for improvement - probably goes without saying... but, I'd still caution that we need to get some next-cycle continuity.

This snapshot of the EPS mean from Pivotal ... heh... you know, not only is this a huge improvement in the signal, there are members that are actually west of the Del Marva to Logan climatology. that would be f'n hilarious, huh

oh gees. i can't. i'm cooking. like up to my elbows in the kicchen. i'll have to take a break here in a minute

just a little ob. the 12z ICON didn't get it done, however...was a massive correction west with the cyclogenic aspects. huge for that one run cycle. can't correct even half that much more over else there'll be hell to pay

yeah, that's a 'spread alarm' actually. that's a metaphorical equivalent of the model mean going, "oh, wait a sec, tho -"

Yeah, and then looking at the next series in the cinema as the run's rolling out, it's definitely the morphology of the 2nd wave that is backing off the negative interference, and allowing the 1st in the series to do it's thing... The GFS has chosen. Ha...let's see if it changes it's mind in the future

So ...this is the 170 hour position from two nights ago, oper. GFS, on the left. On the right is 12z for that same time 36 to 48 hours worth of runs later.... You can see the morphology in the total handling of each ball in the nut sack of this pattern. This latter run shows the 2nd wave is in fact less coherent ...schism into a couple of more minoring wave spaces, while also, the 1st wave is more potent, and, further along downs stream. These are perhaps subtle but are crucial differences nonetheless. That latter of the two runs is allowing the lead to conserve more in totality and thus is operating more cyclogensis/capable of doing so ..etc. This could be the capitulation ( beginning ) toward one of these areas becoming dominant. Too early to tell... could all be a red herring too

alright.. i'll just add this much quickly. 24 hours from now, the dark circle represents the ballast of the wave space ultimately delivering ...whatever is destined to take place along and off the EC ..circa 15/16. That has to be relayed out of the assimilated sounding domain ( unless that tech state has changed...), then ...it has to interact and/if integrate with Canadian pass-by phasing ... These recent GFS runs are handsome with all that relay - which unfortunately has a lot of 'correct-ability' potential to it. It could be right. or it could be wrong. Particularly, the 2nd wave in that headache ... that can still modulate to less (more ) interference - so there's that too

The ICON gets to about 132 hours give or take ...then it loses support from the governing local hemispheric ongoing behavior, that forces the trough to open back up again... taking the legs out form under cyclogenesis welcome to a big exercise in large scale destructive wave mechanics - this appears to have been a two-balls-in-the-nut-sack pattern all along. I've been waiting for that 2nd wave to begin yielding to the first - or vice versa - for days, but if anything, the ensembles are getting even more overbearingly contentious - it's like the only storm is a contest to see which one manages the most entropy out of incalculable potential from this whole mid month. wow ... it's almost comical. Anyway, gloom humor aside ...it's not a dead potential. I'm just getting issue exhaustion in explaining why - time to put up or shut up. It's always about what needs to go right - things that are plausible. Figuring out what part of that spectrum of plausibility actually has likeliness to to happen is artful

meh... leaving something on the table when - our options have been: blame it all on something other than the inevitability and unstoppable force of CC, such that we do not commit the sin of denialism as weather-related/respecting mindful folk, while in fact preventing us from accepting; - or, getting a storm once in a while that enables us to continue along this approach to reality ... enjoy ! (LOL... big dose of dark sarcasm there - but a large amount of humor has an "air" of truth to it )

I wonder why that is ...

I'm sure this has been covered over these ensuing couple three pages I've yet to catch up on ( lol ) but frankly? I haven't seen anything over night ...save 'maybe' the 00z ICON that looks very similar or in support of that near O.D. dopa run by the GFS. hahaha - glad everybody thought it was suss right out the gates.

they're learning

Heh … Finally got to see that 18 ZGFS That’s quite a CCB head it backs in there on the 15th/16th one

yeah...now the GFS is throwing the 22nd at us ... get the f out here with that. i think we've covered just about every date between the 14th and 25th at this point... none of this shit can be trusted - not even standard amount for this range, either. Particularly bad with continuity.

Those wave spaces are competing with one another. Remove either, boom. Not sure one or the other won't become dominant over the days to come - which one? no idea. But should that not happen, it won't be impossible the we either miss both, or end up with an event that's hardly worth a thread. By the way bro, ignore it

If next week fails to deliver, this winter can go f itself. another on an ass heap of 'no, this winter's going to be much better' history lol

Euro's all over the place not saying your wrong or even off ...but we're analyzing shitness from where i'm sitting, this one run appears to be favoring the 2nd wave in that broadly interfering headache, while simultaneously speeding up the 2nd wave... it was the 19th and 20th last night. yikes

you do get the sense there's incremental improvements. It's just that the flow being stressed east of the W biased ridge isn't [ probably ] going to provide an arena for chunk move in this case. Truth be told ... the position of that PNA ridge actually argues for a storm track between Detroit and Buffalo. That'd be a hoot. Hasn't been a model run yet painting that dystopian image hahaha.

well...it's gotta pick one or the other... these two have been tussling in the modeled flow for day's at this point. The latter of the two is obtrusive - it's there because of ( probably ) the "error proneness" of the western ridge being as far west as the GFS keeps placing it. The standard dimensions for L/W spacing doesn't allow the trough aspect to be coherent.. The models "don't know" what is dominant yet nor it's form - not very well. Anyway, if the ridge doesn't improve, the 2nd wave may end up going down the same disruptive route given time. I'm warning y'all - I'm not wrong about this. The determinism is shaky because of it. It would be a lot easier if the PNA ridge part of the total wave space would just be a little more east. By the way, the 2nd of the two is not as well supported by index timing but ... that is actually more negotiable than trying to stretch the trough down stream of that PNA ridge

I maintain a larger reason for this is because the +PNA ridge flex is choosing a position too far W. The flow is tending schism east across CONUS downstream... causing timing and placement issues. If the ridge were more E, that would focus and also iron out which waves are dominate and absorb the others such that it can be the main player. I think if there's a "like-able" and "wanted" solution, it will be if/when the +PNA ridge is correct E. Even if incrementally would help...

I've been mentioning this the last couple of days ... the 12z op GFS run beautifully makes exhibition of my point. Wave interference is a problem ...this spacing is too close. Luckily at D7 there's time to improve this. We'll see what the other runs do, but they've also been exhibiting spacing contention issues... I maintain a larger reason for this is because the +PNA ridge flex is choosing a position too far W. The flow is tending schism east across CONUS... causing timing and placement issues. If the ridge were more E, that would focus and also iron out which waves are dominate and absorb the others such that it can be the main player.

If you expand that product to the charts for 7 and 10 day lags you can see the recency of error. I've noticed that every now and again those curves divorce pretty extreme. It's like the ens have memory that is cumulative - and then every couple of weeks it resets... This is particularly true with the PNA. What's weird, the NAO is the more stochastic, exhibiting larger variance and pour predictive skill in general - yet, the errors at D7 and 10 make it look like the GEFs must be an oracle. Bull shiiiiiiit

LOL ... haha yup, set up the easy recliner with towels, tie off the upper arm with the rubber...and start tapping the hit vein, the dopa delivery is always here!