Typhoon Tip

Dolly is highly likely being dry air inhibited when looking at the SAL products at Wisc EDU.

I've noticed that too over recent seasons... I suspect ( not intending to impugn any organization ) that it's largely cultural/institutional reliance on modelling. When and if a TC is born out of an invest, if/when it occurs ahead of the modeling, that's when we get the jump - because they can't wait for the models, if the TC is there, it's there. Along these lines, the model reliance is also why sometimes you look out there and see an impressive wave that even appears to be closing off a circulation, yet NHC has the basin in a nada status. It's because no model has it developing. The models went through an evolutionary upgrade over the last 10 to 15 years. The Katrina's and Maria's of the last 20 years sort of lit a candle under the ass of R&D. Proven in their forecast statistics. They became objectively better at initialization, improving over human intuition and monitoring of prior generations. I don't personally have any issue with the model reliance - their performance is what it is. They may not be ideal with aspects like RI this or shear that after the fact, but in so far as putting the TC on the map -

A little more encouraged re convection today as the orientation of the fields has a better change for residuals chugging E of the ignition region

Re the Nepal disaster, if real this is something beyond nuts! stunning is more like it it doesn’t just overtop the dam … the dam, the entire facility, and the surrounding valley are all completely subsumed beneath https://www.instagram.com/p/DchKUP7En1N/?img_index=1

mmm no. If you don't know that Twitter does not veraciously provide "data" and "models", then you're in trouble. -obviously... Social media of any kind (really) does not provide veracious anything. Yes, that includes us, here. It's opinionized. Ends veracity. Sure, one can certainly "tentatively" trust some sources more than the others. Yeah. However, everything and anything still must be corroborated against what is known to be factual. Digress: the problem is: that requires energy; that requires intelligence. And these two are subjective of one another. Low energy doesn't lend to intelligence. Stupidity emerges as a primary decision agency. ... Too much population exist now that has become lazy and dumb in their general approach/virtuosity of their daily lives. Thus, too little of either: low energy/will; lacking intelligence.

I'm actually quite interested in the test for RONI In physics, physicists are always chomping at the bit for natural extremes, because it is at the boundaries of what is conceived as possible, that the boundaries finally get to be tested. RONI isn't exactly an offset factor to the prior generational ENSO, whereby a laboratory test can be very readily examined (... droll understatement). In fact, there is NO way to do that. It has to be tested by the vagarious doings of the wholesale atmospheric hemisphere(s) over time. This is one of those times. Agreed. The extremeness of +ENSO definitely puts a plan in place that gives RONI ( I suspect...) it's best test to date. If this were to say go over the unthinkable 3.5 ...then a 2.7 equivalent attack on the canonical climate pathways should be observable. I mean if this ENSO gets out of whack and STILL there were comparatively/relatively minor impacts, then the amount of RONI's current importance/significance gets a side eye look as not being enough - and vice versa. etc

HA ... the most "nuanced" understanding of ENSO is actually that its influence may be dwindling as an agency over winter patterns - that's what the very necessary evolution of RONI is all about. Which is all ironic because that dwindle affects the "general" application - or should. What I mean by that, if RONI and CC are implicating less effective factorization, then logically the nuances go out with the bath water. I'm also suspecting a hesitation if not reticence to adapt to these fundamentals of changing factor-ability wrt the various input channels. Part of that may be a state of the art needing to go up the learning curve .. but it also seems that there are those that have sort of 'institutionalized' a standard canvas upon which to draw long lead outlooks; if having to acquiesce to a notion that their canvas is thus torn/tearing, they're losing their ability to paint - the artistry suffers. Some ego too

I've noted/hypothesized an aspect that's similar to that... Heat in the summers appears to be inducing a resonance feedback that is favoring ridging around the windward sides of continents. Some ridging is favored in these regions at all times, due to basal westerlies encountering boundary layer resistance as the flow encroaches land. It "piles" backward against ... en masse the flow rises over, then deflects N over time, due to upward motion then being worked over by Coriolis. This base tendency is the Perennial North American Pattern, which features a modest ridge over the west that settles out to a quasi trough/nadir as the westerlies are leaving the eastern continent. But the heat expands heights; then superimposed that over the PNAP, the two are in resonance (constructive) feedback). Similarly this is found around Europe to the Urals. The intense/intensifying seasonal heat flux due to CC is then adding to this synergistic resonance. It's quite intuitive and convincingly related to why heat/ridging retrogrades so rapidly whenever we see it episodically blossom over N/A ... Why also western and mid Europe are cooking with increasing frequency during warm seasons... This idea appears to be a deeper dive where the aggregation from these quadratures becomes the CGT bias field. Higher heat enhances drying, again ... more constructive feedback. So the CGT is created to atone for the observable biases.

I'm not sure I see/agree there's much evidence that this ENSO isn't going to heat up more.

That’s the first ‘hot’ run of the GFS I’ve seen in weeks

You realize you just doomed the entire winter by saying this ... right? unreal Okay everybody ... start a thread so we can keep track of every Angus event through next spring -

You forgot the "+9 to +10 will mean we go the other way big time" bargaining

12z operationals appeared to make a coherently warm move en masse on that run, too.

Worth it to mention... WV surplus/transport anomalies available in the general canvas. This would be due to both the increases that are CC attributed, whilst +ENSO and probable STJ input ... working on top of one another. Sounds like a QPF synergy monster if you ask me. Where it rains and/or snows it does with least excuse to do so and heavily. Relatively weaker profiled synoptic disturbances over-achieving.

yet here we are out to the 25th and we're bouncing around 17

heh... ENSO correlations for 300 years do too - but, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that until the gradient locks in and the jet(s) configures accordingly ...etc.

Is this the GFS AI ...or ?

I've noticed it in Augusts ... just sayn'

Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ... Not sure what-how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug. Not sure about 'all months' tho - this below looks like the current month is running along 2nd in that scope. As an aside, also defiant of the fact that all years are typically descending by now. zoink Fwiw, this product includes 1940 - 2026/present

I see the RNA related pattern S of the 45th and warm up others are eluding. It sets in for a week or so coming up, but I'd caution that the negative NAO mode is lingering over the western limb of the domain ... a bit of a wild card. Now, the NAO is not typically well-handled at this range. We've seen a lot of winter extended outlooks fail because what looked persistent in the ensembles and their derivatives sort of sneaked into something else while everyone was counting their winter dividends. Suddenly in the near term we're looking at an entirely different pattern implication while our spirit is still lubed up for the other idea... It's a heartache index - live by it, forlorn for it. Summer NAO handling in guidance is not better, that's for sure. This is sort of an opposite thing. Usually folks want for a -NAO. The present thread tenor seems people are ignoring it (or just not aware) in lieu of a rah-rah for one last gasp summer heat ( as an aside.. heat's fleeting of course - ) before we commit to a climate wake-up-call winter. LOL maybe, we'll see on the latter. anyway, proceed with caution -

You should ... ... more often than not the ensuing season inherits the wind. Sometimes not so much, true. An autumn(spring) may flip the script and do so more profoundly, yup. But there is definitely often enough a leitmotif that is subtle but there if one looks; then it amplifies into better coherence as winter(summer) approaches. 'We started getting coastals in sep that year', lends to active Xmas. 'We started seeing se ridging in latter feb that year', lends to heat in May...etc

Curious, what does Skynet think about the NAO during this time range above?

Oh god, I'm gonna catch some bun blow back for this... but in 1995, we started getting hints and starts of -NAOs in late August, that more and then less continued into the autumn ...only to finally dominate from early November on. We started getting a local SE/Can to NE gradient look as the flow was carving a trough around the -NAO bias that month... Mixy snow and sleet to 2" remained in patches dappled about the UML commons by Veterans Day, and never actually completely disappeared before it was covered over by a more substantial snow mid month... Didn't see bare ground again until the mega thaw in late mid Jan - lost a 30 inch pack down to field ponds floating confused ducks. Winter made a decent comeback in Feb, but it wasn't as good. That's not likely happening this year and isn't intended as an analog - setting the table for making a point here. digressing.. anyway, the point of this was going to be that sometimes seasonal biases have roots in the immediate preceding season. Like you start seeing the biases early, albeit too subtle to perhaps notice the preponderance setting in. Until it becomes factored, sort of unknowable... Similar subject matter, active winters with coastal frequency/events, tend to see a autumn couple of coastals ... - the table sets while no one's looking. I'm only bringing it up because there's a significant correlation between warm ENSO's and the negative NAO mode - east vs west, notwithstanding. This is particularly true/more so in Jan/Feb. But I dunno ... if this thing does do the super duper phat dope badass whatever, maybe the dominating statistic punches thru earlier?

There is a strongish -PNA bounce in the 25 thru 2nd window but it doesn't seem to wanna manifest in the daily/operational synoptics out there along the 40th parallel. There's a positive anomaly in the non-hydrostats but it's pressed down by over-activate summer version of the polar jet... like this, ...This latitude heavy jet antic has been weighting down the heat, suppressing it back SW-S now for 2 weeks and counting. Persistence seems to beget persistence. Otherwise, deep summer ended earlier than normal. Ooa Aug 10 this year for the eastern Lakes/NE region. We've seen 96 up here thru the 10 of Sep but sufficed it is to say we are on the climate slope and/so heat's rarefying. But the 'deep summer ended' isn't meant to trigger ... it's a relative aspect. We can still register above normal temperatures, and not be a part or have potential of being a part of the show. If that -NAO anchored 50/50 aspect continues there ( western limb -NAO in summer, ugh!), we're going to be cooler than the TV ...while being warmer than normal by small amounts - this latter aspect just because CC seems to baseline us to guaranteeing at least decimals on the warm side relative everything.