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Typhoon Tip

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  1. Typhoon Tip
    hmm 8" have become handed out like the free candy in the counter bowl at a car dealership in recent decades... It's come to almost expect for every snow event - some familiarization and entitlement bias has probably set in, too. Repeated exposure and novelty habituation naturally lowers the amazement of it and the meh'ing soon kicks in. You're contrast/analogy doesn't really hold up well, then. Not when EF5s are still hugely more rare by comparison.
  2. Typhoon Tip
    This is a nice example for the adage, "correlation does not mean causation"
  3. Typhoon Tip
    Interesting look for the SH so early in their recovery season ...
  4. Typhoon Tip
    i'm trying to figure out if i need to establish alternate/ancillary sources. This measure would be for the off chance that greed and/or corruption and/or the unstoppable epidemic of growing standardizing idiocy, or some combination of all these..., at last succeed in hiding the telecon from general access. It is getting harder and harder to find what should be free. As an aside, humanity really needs a comet named Humility to set it back to something like a realization of how bad their shit stinks and humility. LOL... but this is a lot for an answer to "...looking for something particular?" I know. hahaha Seriously, ... I may have to pick a source and I'd like it to be good. So right now the CPC - the only remaining easy access site - indicates a descending AO modality, ending in a dish-pan negative mode ... -.75 or -1 heading into the first week of Novie. However, the CPC assesses the AO based upon the geopotential height anomaly. This can be misleading at times... because the specific curvature geometry of the isohypses around the stereographic projection of the hemisphere are not always consistent with actual high latitude blocking we'd normally associate with the -AO state. Case in point, last night's extended GEFs rendition around the hemisphere. There is a some semblance, though very modest, of a block in the NE EPO domain N of Alaska there, but that's hardly substantive. This is sort of suggestive that the AOs negative might be coming more from numerical orientation, where positives are N and negatives S; but, not being representative very well in the orientation of the height gradient/geometry. It's kind of fake - so to speak. Other sources/ corroboration might be useful here. That all said, so long as we're on the telecon topic. This is an impressive PNA signal frankly. That image above does fit the +PNA quite well, and so the spatial orientation fit the numerology - and said graphics are remarkably well clustered for late mid and extended range...
  5. Typhoon Tip
    Not much history/experience with Mr Webb's conjectural advances in all honesty ...Alhough, yeah - I know there's a reposting habit in this social media. I am aware the man exists... if 'man' is how he identifies, notwithstanding. heh No, but in a vacuum, we'd need to have some sort of physically plausible "connective tissue" between the stratospheric polar vortex and the ENSO. I know of none. Frankly, everything I've been taught, read since, or experientially observed in real time over decades suggests there exist a direct ENSO-to-vortex wiring like that. However, this doesn't rule out an indirect causal linkage... perhaps a time lag? - but such a conjecture sees logical problems of it's own. Namely, this +ENSO is new - despite the histrionics and empirical eye-pop numbers - both - it is recent, so lag is immediately suss. Moreover, we just past through summer... First, the only way there is to connect the tropics to the stratosphere altitudes up N is via tropospheric planetary-wave transports and decay ... (that's also the seeding pathway to the SSW phenomenon, btw - although there's papers about extraterrestrial source but excluding for brevity ...). Therein is the logical/epistemic breakdown: planetary wave transport, through mid latitude weak gradient summertime/seasonality, is almost non-existent. It is too weak and transport momentum decay prior to the intrusion altitudes of the PV/high altitudes ( stratosphere) over the AO domain. Most of autumn is in fact still in this limitation until later then now. In simple terms, the canonical summer/early to mid autumn hemisphere is physically excluding those two disparate fields from the only pathway empirically and geo-physically demoed as a means for the S to affect the N. None of this offers a sense of support to Webb's 'hunch'.
  6. Typhoon Tip
    hey bro, does "weathermodels.com" carry teleconnector lays? AO/NAO/EPO/WPO ... PNA PDO ENSO ...etc ?
  7. Typhoon Tip
    Oh I think there's an embedded climate signal mucking with tradition there ... just a hunch. ( synergistic -)
  8. Typhoon Tip
    Don't have much time today; just wanna get this out there before I forgotted, as my niece would say- This is likely to physically stress the PV, below. It's the 100 hPa level thermal anomaly centered on D10 off 00z last night, over at the strat-trop monitoring office. Said stressing would likely respond a -AO index as we age on thru the first week of November. This may be what the background soc-media chorus is singing about? Not sure, but this did not have an origin from an SSW event. Just so's that's noted. as I was mentioning to Ray yesterday, it won't make much difference. Timing perhaps. But whether there's an SSW --> -AO (after 20 day lag) or something going on from bottom --> up ( which this appears to be...), there is likely to be a -AO response of some kind in either case. SO, I'm not hugely put off by anyone that thinks it's SSW but just sayn' That's impressive there tho... It's actually in place already as of the initialization last night, but is amplifying out in time. I checked the rotated PCP analysis version and the AO is in fact crashing to about -.5 by Novie 7 or so. The same source - btw- also depicts the PNA rising to an impressive +1.5 to almost 2 SD... We'll see where the hemispheric conveyors set up on the AO stuff but that PNA is a mode change.
  9. Typhoon Tip
    So I'd be careful with the QBO in correlations. This actually happened first back in - I think ...- it was 2016, where the QBO abruptly and mysteriously halted ( in the relative sense... It even reversed for a time, mid cycle - something that had never been seen at that magnitude, if ever. It prompted me to check and sure enough, there's been publication as to the QBO as ( possibly ...) now also being affected by CC. Yes, even this is not unaffected. The study is “The disappearing quasi-biennial oscillation under sustained global warming,” by Fuhai Luo and colleagues, published in Nature Communications. Jan 29 earlier this year. It indeed describes the QBO as experiencing unusual disruptions in recent years. The idea here is that if it is doing this sort of "break down" ... that should enter the question as to how physically it is coupled with the total system - if so ... naturally and quite arithmetically the correlation goes with it. Just sayn'
  10. Typhoon Tip
    I don't disagree with your reasoning here and product issuance and so forth.. I would only add that the base-climate is very steep since 1997. That does sort of tilt matters from being straight up clearly attributable to ENSO. ...in terms of temperature departures down the SE ... Seasonality should also be considered - The SE could easily have fared warmer than 1997 in the absence of these warm ENSO autumns. I also have some reservation about attributes with ENSO prior to the gradient of the hemisphere drawing the El Nino into the fight. Having said that, if there's some primitive influence that's even subtle, yeah I mean there could be some synergy there that would not likely be very readily noticeable.
  11. Typhoon Tip
    You know notice I am not suggesting or saying at all, that it won't be advantageous to pattern orientation ( depending on what one wants - ) ? I'm not sure it makes a difference. That's why I said 'straw man' above. Not sure anyone's really arguing. I just don't like the untrue application/attribution thing, and I read/heard a bunch of it from 'social media celebrities' Either correlates to a favorable pattern. Think getting there via different wholesale means. I would "possssibly" argue that the bottom-->up variety is more conducive to NE Pacific heights ...but you can see how therein in drives almost no difference for the N/A continent. Contrasting, the -AO forcing from a SSW full cycle forcing has it's own variability. In 2006-2007, for example there was a very impressive SSW museum piece event, Yet, the incredible balmy historic warmth ongoing across the N/A mid latitudes actually persisted for 2 weeks longer - really - than it should have. The blocking and cold unloaded over in Russia/Siberia first, because the planetary wave # was destructively interfering the genesis of cold conveyor over on our side of the hemisphere. That changed of course...we end up with some winter in February that year... Point being, these correlators for bringing cold into mid latitudes are not single sourced, as well, can vary in and of themselves.
  12. Typhoon Tip
    I realize you're just talking/rhetoric here but ... there's a non-zero order probability that when the +ENSO is finally "pattern forcing" ...what emerges is shock-and-awe. Or not ... just sayn'
  13. Typhoon Tip
    yeah I'm not attempting to 'take credit' don't give a shit. It's probably obvious to most anyway ... it was a question that popped into head back in summer actually ha. when it was 89 F
  14. Typhoon Tip
    There is no SSW modeled from what I'm seeing anyway ... Just pointing that out for the straw man if no one's betting. General readers: This exact same aspect took place over the last three consecutive latter autumns - the tropopausal heights over the N arc of the oceanic-atmospheric coupled "thermal bulge", lifted in altitude and introduced a warm anomaly between 50 and 150 hPa altitudes. This then terminates higher into the PV near the top 10 ... 5 hPa levels registering/forcing a faux split, because there is residual warmth that does get that high. But, that is bottom --> up phenomenon. SSWs are intrusions that begin above 30 hPa, and often pulse for a week before the main plume arrives -first- at the very high altitude. Then, given time, it descends in altitude... usually taking ~ 2 weeks to make that journey... As it lowers, it stabilizes the AO domain - this rises eights in the 500 to 200 hPa levels, a.k.a. blocking Now... there's definitely some lop over in physical characteristic and behaviors. It's not an all or not ... Some warm intrusions may then in turn downward propagate after the fact. Or, the bottom --> up could be in tandem with the other, making it suggestive in both direction, and difficult to parse out attribution. By and large, a text book SSW looks like this though, which I've annotated... Notable -AO correlation toward the end of January (~20 days past the onset of the total event) was extreme, and carried over into February that year.
  15. Typhoon Tip
    One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. Speculatively: the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ... For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, an integral that will end up containing examples both subtle and gross. It may not be overly obvious at all times... Sometimes yes, other times no. But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say). Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics. If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers, lest the manic state drives them to voting self-destructively for the wrong people. haha. No but (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone.
  16. Typhoon Tip
    Fwiprobablynotworth ... this ACME road-runner show quality graphic over at CPC seems to suggest there's a secondary +anomaly node ( if not primary...) situated around the 3.4 ... interestingly trying to connect to the marine heat wave going on around San Diego ... The nearby coastal cooling astride El Salvador - I suspect - is an artifact of the enhanced TC trafficking over the last 1.5 months running up just W of that area and imposing offshore SS stressing ..speculation.
  17. Typhoon Tip
    watch us segue from this into a 46/33 mist winter hosting three historic all-time bombs at different times ...all cutters ... wah wah waaaa
  18. Typhoon Tip
    Yesterday boasted the grandest diurnal change I've seen 'round deez parts... 44 to 46 F swing was common within 10 miles of my location, both home stations and tweener NWS sites. [EDIT, 38-43 ...helps when you're not looking at WC columns. still impressive] Today may exceed that differential where has this cold drain phenomenon occurred.
  19. Typhoon Tip
    It's remarkable ... the autumn of the great unbalanced RAD proficiency continues. It's 48 at ORH ap, 28 here... Granted that's 800' of difference but 20F is about as extreme a still morning difference/RAD result as I've ever seen.
  20. Typhoon Tip
    Ha! well I'm not part of that fake stuff. Temperature is temperature... I'm more focusing in on the unusual nature in which we're getting a sensible autumn out of a deep summer sky - to put it somewhat poetically. This morning the hgts are/were 582 dm ... 27 at the surface. It's been happening a lot since late summer, too. Maybe not that extreme but it's been unbalanced on the whole. If that's coincident with some discussion point than it's unintended.
  21. Typhoon Tip
    Too early/prerequisite challenged ... but indian summer like. The trick will be, 'does the anticyclone get under our latitude?' Since mid to late August actually, these powerhouse high pressure nodes have been moving either bodily overhead of E thru Ontario, placing us persistently in a highly uncoupled lower troposphere relative to mid level soundings. We've been getting frost if not freezes under 576 dm heights - anomalous combination of metrics. Very much so... We've had hyper proficient RAD events as of late, which is an interesting met phenomenon probably under the nose of most people's awareness. It feels like we're getting a normal autumn progression - though with modest positive biases, but it's kind of been lying? so to speak. 27 F under while this; is just another example in many
  22. Typhoon Tip
    We just went through this last year, and the year before in the late autumn early winter. Just wanna make it clear, these early PV irregularities are are not related to SSW events.
  23. Typhoon Tip
    Not speaking for anyone in particular but ... I 'sense' the posts are implicitly dancing around an ominous look/portents for winter.
  24. Typhoon Tip
    I'm sensing an increasing privatization of general weather mappage is becoming more and more problematic to general usership. Pay-up or no forecast graphics for you. The NWS doesn't really provide graphics worth a shit ... I mean, we don't need or really ask for all the bells and whistles, either. Hell, I'd take 2-meter temp progs in black and white numerology, and the old black and white difax charts. Give me those and telecon and I'd smoke the industry The FOUS/NAM is going away ... I don't know of any source that provides raw modeled grid/altitude numbers. They may be out there but the web these days is too cryptic and hard to find anything. Us "meteorologists" prefer grids some times. These strings of numbers like this random ex for the mid atlantic, TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 DFW//969272 03902 121110 65151409 06089979167 06500 121803 64161408 12020936119 -0602 113411 60151207 18000925106 -3605 183119 50110704 24000906705 -4806 193116 47090600 30000622206 -4114 223213 52100603 36000501320 -2316 193009 59120806 create a mental picture that to the educated is often way more correct than some X'er pimped out chart, or PIVOTAL this or Weatherbell that... anyway. But society can't seem to function at all without passing their next breath through the filter of capitalistic ambition and money aspirations... Please, bring humanity a corrective comet! It's like the only working "comet" we have, is CC, but it's only making it worse because storms and event ferocity are now a fad, so graphical enterprises are getting greed wet dreams. Combining that with the collapse of government .. it's all creating an exclusionary kind of access. I think it's a matter of time before PIVOTAL, and Tropical Tiddly winks or Golden Gate ... start asking for cash for any of it. I can't wait until I bring my storm generator on line and turn on the lightning bolt targeting system. ha
  25. Typhoon Tip
    no one's asked me buuut, personally, confidence in any seasonal modeling is lower than even the usual eye-rolling when the model being use has "climate" baked into it's title and/or physical make-up.
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