Typhoon Tip

was just pokin' around at obs. Looks like seasonal evapotran might be kicking in. DPs in the decoupled layer surged from low 40s to mid to upper 50s by dawn at a lot of the NWS tweener sites on their W&H Viewer. Decouple/radiative nights are probably not going to be able to do the < 40 thing even if the pattern tries to butt bone summer again. lookin' like 80s today ... some of the DP mixing out

Poaching this off Spaceweather.com but I thought you ENSO geese might find this interesting... SUPER EL NIÑO, IS THE TERMINATOR TO BLAME? Headlines are buzzing with news that a super El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean. A solar physicist saw it coming 3 years ago. A super El Niño like this one in 1997 is now forming in the Pacific Ocean. In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026. He based it on the Terminator, a magnetic event on the sun that ends one solar cycle and ignites the next. Averaging the past five solar cycles into a "standard cycle" and projecting it forward, Leamon found that El Niños follow about five years after a Terminator. The most recent termination event happened in December 2021, putting the next El Niño squarely in 2026. His model says nothing about the strength of this El Niño, but the timing is spot-on. Leamon and his colleague Scott McIntosh had previously shown that every Terminator since the 1960s coincided with a flip from El Niño to La Niña. Their work correctly predicted the onset of a triple-dip La Niña in 2020 and revealed an unexpected connection between the sun and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Adapted from Fig. 5 of Leamon (2023), this chart highlights two apparently successful predictions based on the Terminator No one knows how the sun exerts control over the ENSO. Most researchers favor "top-down" models: Solar activity alters the top of Earth's atmosphere, making changes that percolate down to affect the weather we experience near Earth's surface. But the actual mechanism is unknown. At first (2021), Leamon and McIntosh thought cosmic rays were responsible. Galactic cosmic rays vary with the solar cycle, and they influence the ionization of Earth's atmosphere. But later (2023) Leamon himself weighed in against cosmic rays, noting that the timing didn't work. He currently favors a correlation with geomagnetic activity. The search for a sun-El Niño connection is as old as El Niño itself. Sir Gilbert Walker, who discovered the "Southern Oscillation" (the SO in ENSO) in the early 1900s, tried and failed to find a link to sunspots. Throughout the 20th century, other researchers likewise struggled to make the connection. The Terminator, however, is a new concept articulated by McIntosh and Leamon in a series of papers starting 10 years ago. It seems to do a good job of predicting solar cycles and may be successful with ENSO as well. It will take more than 1 or 2 successful predictions to build confidence in this model, but it's a good start. Let the El Niño begin.

hahaha.... I had just provided a bit more colorful way of describing that bold key aspect there... - although you can tell the GFS' recent runs have been just ackin' to blue line us again. It's like scheming to put out a model run with Feb heights one last time

just a psychobabble guess but it 'might' have something to do with the fact that the forecast doesn't have a chance of rain changing to snow barely two f days from now. When that's the case, it kind of takes the joy out of a day like this ... curse for being weather-aware. Lot of folk don't even really look or care to look at the 'cast, they just head out - great! But if we know it's got a short window it kind of sours it a bit. Top 3 if not top 1 day here as far as I can tell. DP 42 with 79 and wind down to zephyr breezes ... not sure what else Earth can do to sponge bathe our balls and bring us deserts...

79

Quite possibly the best symbolic metric for that is the fact that the nights won’t be nearly as cold. This will cause a healthy status of green up to go full on jungle by the end of the week. Frankly, I’m amazed green ups as far as it is the way it’s been dipping into 37 every night for the past 7000 years

Euro's putting up big heat numbers in NYC's metro west and N NJ on Wednesday.

fascinating ... you can kind of see the weakening - don't have to wait for this to rotate away per se, it's seems to be losing identity at the same time.

90 Sunday in the interior if these new NAM 12z grid numebrs are right. I don't think its profile over Logan is right 18z+, tho. NAM is spuriously cooling the 850 mb level where it should be roasting them because that day has a westerly wind burst in the BL to 20 kts coming down from 280 degree direction, under superb solar max heating (off a high launch no less...). The mixing quotient should have that level closer to what it's doing over LGA, rising a couple clicks...not falling. So, it keeps the exit temp in the 82 range via adiabats when it should be about 91 given so going to toss ... It will be interesting to start delving into these kind of OCD inspections when the new model versions cripple the forecast community in a couple of months. HAHA

You know this reminds me ... I was just reading an article at phys.org ( paraphrasing site for deeper dive science papers ) that shows CC precipitation distribution is doing two aspect concurrently, world over. Water boarding gasping rates where it actually rains, while simultaneously ...everyone is getting drier ( on land of course..) in the general layout. I guess implying less opportunities. Intuitively this is probably more true in the interior of continents than it is around the seagull's range from the coasts. Anyway, what you described fits how a location might express the same. I guess wait until you get a slow mover in late June and the babbling creek under the street down the way suddenly flows over the road, scouring it completely away off a weather forecast for isolated thunder but primarily just partly sunny warm, high of 87

yes it was! And I don't have any faith in seasonal outlooks so you've manage to penetrate my cynical lead on this one. Ha... I nailed the first 1/2 of winter; didn't do so good in the 2nd. Having said that, I also did not formalize any outlook so ... heh. I guess it doesn't count. Maybe if I had put the time in I might have thought differently about the back half but I bet I would have had trouble getting out of my own way. See, for NINA-decaying springs - according to my own linear eval of correlations of other ENSO of past vs the cosmic dildo - there's an interesting 2ndary offset mode for bombastically warm AMJ. As 2ndary implies, it's not the leading mode. But there's a cluster. So they don't always happen, but the ones that did went impressively warm. I felt 'hot' on the dice roll. I took a rather quick and glib gamble that CC would team up and weight the die - this could be one of those years to see an early spring. And for those of us that covet bombastically decisive endings and warm flips ...yay. Didn't really pan out. But here's the funny thing... as an after thought, CC is fucking up the analysis, anyway. See, we keep cooking up positive anomalies in the relative comparisons of just about everything. That makes is hard to parse out what is happening because of what. Example, March and April we regionally were above normal relative to climate... during a colder pattern construct. Oops. We did however bottom of the barrel below the results relative to the whole U.S., so pattern still expressed. It's like we have parallel processes going on.

Mm ...he may partially be right ... I've been watching this and comparing it to various guidance. When this region pivots N, and it's not 'filling' in or back redeveloping as it's been pushing coherently N, it's like to shut off the spigot pretty abruptly. We lull... question is, would there then be a rejuvenation as a kind of weak easterly anomaly conveyor temporarily sets up while the filling closed low rolls underneath... ? Maybe. The NAM is paltry with that tho. And given the weakening kinematics ...that's not necessarily tossed. In other words, I can see a pathway to where your neck of the woods gets kind of shafted here https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

that's a good point. Didn't consider that. I tell you what ...I bet now that we're in the solar max we may still do better. I'll let it ride and take the hit if I'm wrong. I'm still thinking 77's doable but yeah. Part of my thinking is that we're facing a pretty significant built in correction vector, one with an explosively long room, too. As an aside, this really is an impressive wholesale change coming after tomorrow Just sayn', 2-m in NAM's 69 at ORH and 71 BED at 18z. That's garbage under near full sun and superb wind direction during a summer mixing profile. BL is gonna get tall. We all know FIT/ASH/BED are 6 F warmer than ORH in that setting. Granted MET MOS is 75 so ... it's a nerd's quibble.

Also, entertaining low grade heat wave Mon-Wed. 89-92 variety... close. Subtle yet crucially amplifying ridge heights are situated nicely for deep layer heat transport in recent multi-source guidance. It could tick more pronounced yet, too. Also, no BD or N-door frontal sag until perhaps too late on Wed to matter. Meanwhile, 850s are steadily improving from 10 all the way to 16c thru the weekend prior, and the general cloud RH fields are < 60% so sun soaking after elevating successive launch temperatures. Not big heat by very warm. Civility taken off guard a little...despite technical above average April it really has not sensibly appealed that way.

I'd use MAV for Saturday. METs not high enough for those synoptic params. If you look at the 850s warming from 15 thru 21z in a pocket just E of over the water, that's actually mixed diurnal plume leaving the coast - which means the mix hgt actually made that level. It's 10C, and the adiabtic extrapolation to 1000 mb is 22.5 ...so the mandatory 2 to 3 slope addition to the real sfc yields closer to 25 C ( 77), which is what the MAV sports. That could also be a deg shy, too

Wow... impressive 6 hour change Saturday morning in this new NAM grid. Walking through a summer doorway

The heaviest rain this system ordeal has to offer may in fact come from this introductory band that Brian just showed there. The whole system is closing off but that behavior is doing so over pallid gradients/weak baroclinicity, while the mid and upper heights are really filling as it closes ... not deepening further. As it is pulling away, it even opens the trough back up and ends up almost washed out of the hemisphere by the next day as it's corps smears up over the Maritime. [edit, it actually does go through another deepening phase up there but then right after it's disappears] Systems tend to not score well in the course when they're limping into the final. The NAM's lower QPF all along may end up doing better in this. The other models "might" be over producing QPF given weakening structure. It'll be interesting to see what happens with this. It is still a closed circulation, tho maintaining a progressive movement ... but closed circulations may get a window of easterly anomaly which adds ... So both a lower and upper performance are true.

Oh geez - personally have no experience yet working with these tools set to replace the existing ... I was talking to Wiz' yesterday, just the roll-out in August could end up a cluster fuck. So many tech suites have the present existing modeling tools deeply integrated, soup to nuts, and all that has to be reworked. Graphical processing alone - eesh So if on top of all that headache, it's to put a piece of shit bad models into play? haha. Sounds like a governmental operation, huh

Mm... fwiw, my own interaction/experience and impressions therefrom with AI tools are more favorable than that. It comes down to one's own responsibility to "asking the question in the right way" One aspect I will fault AI is that it sometimes will hooks it's teeth into a adjective/verb one has chosen to use - perhaps the user had the the 2nd or 3rd preferential definition in mind when they did...- as gospel. It appears as tho the AI probabilistically leans on the first more proper usage? speculation. Either way, it doesn't offer suggestions from suspicion over what the user really meant - probably because it's not a human being in that sense. AI isn't yet at the level of "what was it they were really thinking". This can tint the context when it is subtle, at other times outright diverting conversations down paths users weren't really intending. Thing is, it was always because of the user's word choice. Cobalt says "...the vibes are off," and Dan mentions nuances ... etc. You know, those strike me as really being the state of the art of the technology not really getting the "spirit" of the moment along the exchange, in lieu of its tendency to run to the most concise meaning upon turn of phrases and/or word choice. I've gone back along the exchange history and found inflection points and said, "I didn't mean to imply x, I meant more y" etc... and after the brief pause, the AI admits to a course correction so to speak. It can also help if you use the markdown option in the settings to color the type of experience you want. Mine says no flattery. Don't be obsequious. This actually helps...because if you use a word that's ...a little off, the AI will be less likely to just ignore/accept it - it might even ask me how what I just said relates. I could almost see a future where a type of new job req emerges in industries that have adopted/bought into AI called "AICE" employees - pronounced acer. These are "AI Configuration Engineers" What do you do, "I'm an Acer" for x-y-z. The job entails a fuller/intimate understanding of the tech/circumstance such that the engagement with the AI teases the best solution without those distractions. Which believe it or not ... are hugely costly - even small ones and the deviation, the expenditure in recovery adds to the growing data center push-back concern over resource piggery; it is expensive for a lot of reasons. This could all just be generational, too. It's important to bear in mind, this tech is like the Wright Brothers first 90 feet of successful flight ... well, proportionally, maybe a little farther along. But we're no where close to flying high altitude international flight routes in that metaphor just yet. There are advances, lots of them. That ambit research is definitely not going to stop for better or worse! Plus, imagine when Quantum Computing comes on line, a computing core that finds all possible definitions that can exist, at the same instant, and chooses the top probability - now... plug Gemini into that. Hm? So far, by keeping tabs on my own concision when dealing with AI, I've come to find that it's been the most advantageous accompaniment to both problem solving, and the creative process, since either the invention of the scientific calculator or biology's ability to dream. Impetus on a accompanying helper - we're a ways yet from landing the ability to soup to nuts solutions in isolation.

like. some in here will lose it if any kind of weather happens ? not sure what was so distracting, warm or cold, about any model run for that matter this morning.

weird warm sector ... PHL-NWR and all point surrounding and in between have DPs between 43 and 50 F...whilst clearly by other obs, a warm front has soared N ... One might of thunk DP of 60 in warm sector but that's a dry warm dose punching up the coast. In fact, said warm boundary is nearing or just passing through HFD as you're reading this statement. Winds bump S and go gusty SW across CT and the sat loops have day glow skies if not sun splashing there. Moving rapidly NE. We're likely to get that even up to Rt 2 and SE NH soon... We won't make 70 but I could see it surging into the mid 60s.

Yeah...I guess what I was in part dancing around is whether or not we should expect general product outages. We may go through a "bug" period where modeling gets black out times. Prooobably why they chose August? Since that is the most quiescent time of the year, if you're going to do a huge disruptive product overhaul, down to the software level - which I also don't have a lot of faith is likely to be properly hardship-estimated ... - that makes sense to do it during dog-day doldrums. I've been in several different software capacities over the last 25 years ... I can tell you... when the issue is code-base level, the time estimates are almost always between 2 and 5 times longer in reality then is planned. Any other software engineers in here will know what I am talking about.

You know it just occurred to me... Think how much work is going to have to go into the Internet technology bases, pan-systemically, for this up-coming August change. All industry reliance - star there and start thinking about 'turning off' all these guidance' I wonder... hm. One way to do it is to leave the other product suite ( old ) as is, while giving a time and chance for the source provider-ship to catch up. Running in parallel might be expensive, but provided a chance for deep, deep product integration to be root-canalled. NAM/MOS web-pages, ... crip filing and FTP automations... Companies that may rely on those automations... hard to know where to begin. Graphics engines? my god. massive, massive overhaul in the wholesale industry. The other way to handle ( if smart ) is to induct Claude or Gemini CODEX AI ...like real fast, and start drafting up whole new web architectures - like head start it. Expedience being the objective. Because in tech parlance, August is in ten minutes from May. When the existing took the last 20+ years of human engineering to create all that product suite and deeply rooted sourcing, and product reliances ..et al - yikes. The whole system can't really just be stopped on a dime because NOAA clicks a mouse to fire up these new tools. I mean what am I missing... ? As an afterthought, you wonder if the vendors may have already been working background with NCEP - perhaps developing against a beta system...

You could almost predict that the separate layer of interpretive modeling wouldn't even be necessary. A lot of the cause behind their creation was/is to cure both error that's known, but anticipation and suspicion, upon each model run. But therein is the source of the human error...right? In a future whence QC modeling cores are like ...terrifyingly accurate out to 17 some odd days, the interpretations become just a veneer technology layer at the output end of each cycle - more for readability. Yeah ..that would soup to nuts be a bad day for weather forecasters as a profession, wouldn't it?