Typhoon Tip

Well...firstly and foremost that was a tongue-in-cheeking worded for the long of dirty dialogue. Buuuut so long as we're on the subject, like all humor their is point to be had buried in the muse ... The fast atmosphere is screwing things up, and the fast atmosphere ... plaguing seasons most always as a baseline problem in recent decadal time scale(s), is definitely physically connect to a warming planet. That's already been science/papered by several source - although, others in here with open minds and curious speculation, did surmise something was wrong and began posting about it, years and years ago See, there are two ways heat in the atmosphere exists. Human common experience only directly samples how the temperature feel on their actual skin, or makes them feel. Unfortunately for CC, most of it ( so far...) does not appeal that form. Most of CC is absorbed into the background environment .. it does really raise the temperature until there has been 2ndary and tertiary different systemic processes. One of which is the expansion of warm heights ...which then means extremer gradients during winter/seasonal cooling from higher latitudes on down... The Earth becomes like an engine... But instead of converting combustion energy into motion energy, it converts potential energy to motion via the thermal wind component being larger when there is larger gradient. That then bends by coriolis ... and that becomes the base-line geopotential wind velocity. See...not many people know any of this exists in reality. 99% of people don't. And of those that remain... about 10% even get it intuitively That's really the human and humanities biggest problem ... the truth is owned by a tiny fraction of everyone, who benefit off their discoveries ... perhaps irresponsibly for not knowing what's behind it all. But everyone is now using these innovations that have toxic effects on the environment. Small imbalance there, huh. But I'm wildly digressing... anyway, the speeding atmosphere is connected to CC.

Live by the N/stream ... die by the N/Stream You've been N/Streamed! LOL

Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... By consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it. haha

Hate to say ... fast fukin' atmosphere striking again in this RDPD run... this rapid inject over the crown of the +PNAP ridge out west is screwing things up... 'Is it real? I dunno

It's less common as error correction now that it was back when ( grhs) he was around posting about it. The convective grid-scale feedback is less error prone in the guidance than back then. These last 20 years of guidance/technology evolution have improved on that. That's shrunk the error spectrum/causality - like we removed a lot of that specific error type when the grid scaling stuff/boundary condition was improved. Now, the error is mainly related to whether the convection triggers at all.. and in what quantity - this is still error prone but in total we don't see as many late minute adjustments. I've noticed that as these storms get closer in time, there is less escape vorticy nodes; it seems to be more of a mid range taint.

Yeah, that ICON solution's offering a brand new twist to this whole thing... The SPV aspect is like 25% weaker overall in its contribution/diving... It's really reducing it to piece of shit status and weak. If that happens, game over

I've actually seen it happen. In fact, shit I don't remember which one but for the longest time after learning about convective-grid-scale feedback in undergrad studies, I just went ahead and assumed that all cold winter deep trough approaching the Gulf/adjacent SW Atlantic warm moist source would trigger that phenomenon. But, convection really early in the total synoptic evolution ... , can be real, too. The difference is whether it is on the grid intervals. That causes the low formulation .. which then escapes in the streamline downstream, taking a lot of latent heat away from the primary forcing associated with the main trough. This is less than technically everything going on but just making concept here... However, there was storm in my lore that was maybe 20 years ago, where I-be damned if a big plume of convection didn't erupt and gobble all the fuel away and escape seaward. I was like, 'wtf! that's supposed to be convective fakery' - that's when I gathered the difference between a real convection tainted event, and one that is manufactured by the models and is thus not necessarily real. It's a quasi now-cast thing in the 18 hours prior...

Two things are happening, both neggie to winter storm bombard enthusiasts ( haha) 1, the mid/u/a tropospheric lows are failing to capture the lower levels, which are skittering out ahead .. perhaps some convective drag, too 2, the, the mid/u/a tropospheric lows are in total taking a rather broad parabolic journey ..swinging hugely from MIssouri to SE of the BM ... This latter aspect I'm waiting on the guidance to correct. Even 15%'s the difference maker here.

Just look at this chart ... Do you see these cyclonic nodes way the fuck out E of the trough ... ? that's #2

I did qualify the effort with selfy already an hour ago so I think I'm covered

Edit NAM: altho - this didn't end up bad looking at 84 hours. It's still a little west of the others, which is sensible. Extrapolating this... I cold see two things possibly happening ... 1, the voriticity shrapnel fanning off GA is likely convective explosion ( I discussed that erstwhile missing component to these global model solutions to date, last night - ). That would release latent heat to the total wave space, jacking the Atl perenial height wall which counter offers resistance to an E track. That's theoretical but does factor so ... pretty proven. 2, that becomes overly aggressive, and a low is biased/stretched toward said convection... starving the low that would otherwise be triggered closer to synoptic q-g forcing associated with that gdz hole in the sky approaching the coast.

Yup, the 12z NAM is back to a more E solution with the initial diving N/stream. That's not cutting it up right. The 06z had more promise ...as discussed, also a better fit for where this should all be happening in the first place... , but this 12z just panicked and erased the right answer on the test, and went instead with the other solution...

Brian .. he feels better about it today because he's reading the room, just like he does the mark in a sale's meeting. That's what he does for a living, quite successfully, too. It's his superpower. He could sell a dog-shit taco to Julia Child, and even get her to compliment the spicing... We all have one - though most of us go through life having never figured out what ours, is ... He would probably make for a good Poker player, come to think of it, because as we all know, in Hold 'em statistics wins some hands but he who reads the room wins the big pot. He's like a social NMB model... just reading the room and figuring for a consensus.

Sorry, ...that's not the right hole, honey

It makes sense of itself ... which is not an aver as to it's winning in this thing, but given the larger super synoptic structure wrt ridge and troughs and teleconnectors therein, that is what this should all be looking like. Rather elegantly, too The CFS - I believe but am not certain - is a climate fusion with GFS output. It's possible the the climate integral part of that is pulling these E solutions of the operational GFS, back W where they really should be - given to the aforementioned synoptic arguments. Interesting...

Sorry...catching up overnight shenanigans, but what sticks out to me the most in this cinema above ...the trough bulk spatial positioning is bumping slowly W - as it really should - while noticing, the western ridge component of this total +PNAP flow orientation is wobbling but otherwise transfixed along roughly 110 W. That actually best teleconnects said eastern trough closer to 80W than the Del Marva/off the eastern seaboard during greatest amplitude. Basically... these things don't always come into reality in best fits. But, they due tend to at least shuffle closer to where they should be while doing so. This slow, albeit perhaps crucial bumping W with the trough is suitable.

I still suggest a correction W across the W Atl nearby EC is possible if not in the cards. I've been very vocal about the 'disrespect'/odd configuration results of the global models wrt the western heights, and how the coupled downstream trough should dictate this stuff ending up more W - that completes the total L/W structure. These erstwhile solutions appearing to be too stretched in the longitudinal axis. That did not change over night. Stubborn. Yet... and I can't believe I'm saying this wrt any NAM model solution at 60-84 hour out in time , the 06z you may or may not have noticed is diving down a solid couple of longitude clicks W of all guidance. That actually looks like a better fit for a western ridge axis roughly aligned Idaho/eastern MT, to W of the Colorado Rockies. Be that as it may with the NAM inclusion for this, it at least demos one physically plausible solution that better fits what the other models have been failing to do. That all said... it's possible to stretch the trough perhaps due to other reasons. It's just that I fail see what those are. It just appears the models are over doing perhaps the S/W translation speed of the whole phasing arena, and that sort of outpaces the L/W - that's a correctable facet, even in shorter terms. One aspect about this ( also ) that I feel is correctable in shorter terms is that the curvature of this whole ordeal doesn't even start to emerge until 48 to 60 hours before play time. The western end of the SPV fragmentation up there draped W-E N of Lake Superior bides time, then the whole thing collapses S rather acutely. I think that has to actually begin and then the cause-and-effect and feedbacks et al will manifest in some shorter term modulations. High confidence for a storm... perhaps a tremendous storm, and a positive realization for all this ... but where is biggie when dealing with sub 975ers yeah.

ICON was much different in the 500 mb evolution comparing the 18 Z The run overall is a huge improvement; if it wasn’t for the fact that it was ejecting the phase before it could actually complete the fusion then that would’ve been a bomb much farther west than 120 hours

The NAM is a huge incremental step more favorable for cyclogenic development along the Eastern seaboard bclinic region as it’s begun the rotation of the trough axis. Ending frames of the previous model cycle were less rotated

yeah… You know a lot of those on those list are sus to me. It’s like this situation might be just unusual enough that the best grabs are not very good? that kind of observation tends to create fights on the website so that’s not what I’m trying to do here.

Right and furthering the point… Unusual situations , you know people have to be on guard for unusual or unexpected results take that list of analogs, for example. None of those on that list had heights like this plumbing to that deep and latitude, and that Z coordinate in the atmosphere. Yet those are the best analogs the best analogs could still be bad comparisons. That’s often misunderstood about analogs.

Hey Will how is 1987 February 10 an analog let alone number one? Do you have those charts?

You’re probably going to find a lot of similarities because there’s really own way for a subsume phase to happen… And they all carry the traits in common The standard analog is probably a higher percentage likeness than when they have to go out and find something that’s similar to something else unusual

I shit you not… I’ve had that Boxing Day storm in my mind for the past three days.

Perhaps you can imagine that, but imagination is not a statistic nor synoptic verification. Also, the Delmarva is about 200 miles north of Cape Hatteras and that is significant in terms of climatology of the 500 mb. In fact, when I said Cape Hatteras, that was a loose reference … the actual model run had 516 and sub height S-Southeast of Cape Hatteras.