Typhoon Tip

I'm wondering a couple of things. one, will all this snow really be down to just piles in time. That's only 6 days away and the specifics of the CMC/GFS/Euro ops offer enough clouds and mean frontal position headaches to perhaps level the melt potential some. I mean, I've seen it approach 70 over a snow pack, sure. But that's with howling S gales and tons of steam rollin off the fields in firehose melt off that will be bare ground in a coffee break. I'm not sure it is environmentally possible to put 80 F over a geographic pan dimensional cryosphere and keep it sunny, when heights are really only marginal for mid 80s. There's kind of a 'absurdity limit' lol. two, if so ... does this approach on te 10th/11th period possibly expose a flaw in these AI versions? ie., not defining or integrating that aspect of the environmental precondition. For that matter, are we abundantly confidence the standard versions are doing that proficiently enough. I suspect the answer's no on the AI's, anyway. They still illustrate like 1993 MRF runs with that larger fuzzy granularity. That doesn't look like discrete systemic awareness really. Thing is... even the operational runs are bursting warm sector surge through all across those two days. The CMC with it's own 570+ dm plume now. Probably just go with whatever model's most conservative with temperatures until the ground snow is much much less.

My sense is there’s kind of like a contest in some people There is none It was always going to warm up and then likely cool back down We’ll see what that entails on both ends of that, but there is no contest

Ayer, MA

S est vis 1/2 mi 3.5" 27 f

S est vis 1/2 mi just under 1" 28

In terms of personal druthers? agreed - I can objectively admit to this winters cold and snow. But personally - I know I'm probably in the minority - I can honestly say I did not like it. I did not like the deliveries. I did not like the fact that an extraordinary, historical bomb bumped SE in the magic moments just enough that a comparatively select few got the big goods while we pretended it was historic out side the smaller geographical area. I did not like the fact that there was snow on the ground deep enough that we suspended our disk golf season. I did not like the cold... we don't need that much cold to get that much snow...and we prooobably could argue the cold is why some of these storms shirked for bigger taxes, too... Didn't like the winter. Prefer that when those 70+ers arrive ( assuming they do) next week, by then the modeling/indicators would have collapses in favor of the inevitable seasonal change, and we would in fact not ever see this white shit on the ground until after Halloween.

OH I get it... just pointing out the silliness of it. Truth be told, all that grading BS is is how well did one's dopa get its hits. Who cares ultimately if one gets their rocks off. Everyone has a different number for weather boner inches anyway.

that's funny we're musing over that.. I was just texting with some Met buddies a little while ago how this year really seemed to us to be a "snowy year" Granted, we're not dyed in the cloth snow zealots, but in principle, we just see this year as having had snow on the ground almost always. Two huge storms.. and lost track of all these tweener event/constant reminders. I like the numbers method frankly. If it is 100% of the seasonal norm, that is an A+ tough shit otherwise.

Isn't 93% and A/A- ?

Right, and people are giving this year B-'s and shit for grades.

yeah, especially this one... If I were going to use 2-m temp to reflect where my estimation of the snow retreat was, it would like just like this. It's probably estimating the snow pack in the first place, but relative to that - Notice Watchusett and ORH AP elevations are warmer? that's snow pack inversion with those els poking out.

It's as though it is also estimating the retreat of the snow pack across those days... interesting. It may actually look something like that, as reflective in the 2-m temperature shrinking cold

If anything the 12z AI GFS is even warmer a week from Thursday ... that's 570dm warm sector, well mixed heat...

This whole event is quite warm frontal like. I was thinking it was more symbolic of that yesterday but now it looks like it is an actual WAA/overrunning venting out ahead of a diffused warm transition. Noooormally I'd go above machine guidance when looking at those synoptic params for tomorrow ... Not so sure over a foot of corn snow pack. It'll be an interesting ob. Either way, with unnoticeable light zephyrs but noticeably warmer March sun it's going to sensibly appeal pretty fantastic for spring enthusiasts circa 2:15 in the afternoon.

yeah it'll actually be quite balmy tomorrow with light winds and mid 50s under mostly sunny. That'd be the new warmest day so far