Typhoon Tip

The main event! Radar vs the models

One implicating of losing the -EPO is the relaxation in the flow that takes place down stream over the continent. There's still plenty of cold air around... don't worry. But the upshot is that the gradient slacks off, and that allows the kinematics to conserve at the S/W scale. Right away, the Euro operational run takes advantage of that - whether it is correct or not ( likely not as is - ), the principle of a better pattern for winter enthusiasts immediately materializes there.

Some pretty heavy rad returns smeared out across S. Ontario pressing into Upstate NY. Likely to be an impressive radar display later on coming into the Capital District/SE NY, and as is typical ... you'll look at that and wonder how the hell could that miss. It would be something if one of these times ...just once, it didn't

The changes are starting out over the vastness of eastern/NE Asia and the relay across the N. arc of the Pacific Basin a bit over a week from now. I discussed this yesterday or the day before whenever that was that the GEPs was first, then joined by the EPS. The wave function producing that resonant -WPO feature out there that has plagued our side of the N. hemisphere is at last depicted to collapse. This is true among all ensemble systems - perhaps more aggressively so in the EPS and Canadian clusters but the GEFs mean's taken some strides. There's a few implications, some speculative... some known - but the caveat being that this all actually takes place. It's really out ~10 day whence the sweep begins... The timing can change, too. By the 300 or so hours out into the temporal range there is an abrupt reversal of the height anomaly distribution over the N. arc up there. Below is the EPS example. Change are coming ... Some very early indicators are +PNA, hinted already above with at least a return of the perennial W. N/A bulge over the Rockies. It's all very primitive.

Hmm a lot of "users" in this "psychotropic crack-house" are not constrained by negations such as the bold ^ ... because it gets in the way of their high. LOL Seriously ... if there were more willingness to objectivity, sans the most jerked off solution, that obvious and true aspect about the NAM would be elaborated upon by more people that just you and I and one or two randoms. But that's not what this engagement's all about.

You might be in luck … Major guard change signaled in the extended GEPS with coherent collapse of that remarkably persistent and intense -WPO, now being joined by the extended EPS. GEFs lag but I suspect it’s a matter of time …~ 10th+ of Jan This will send the roulette wheel for a turn … at least introducing footprints less neg interfering with the +PNA hemisphere … sorely lacking so far this cold season with that erstwhile signal - other than unstable quickly transient moments. 30th is a good example of this … That -WPO is an unusual/historic scenario and its sending odd wave signatures radically down stream. Need to get this inside of day 10 first

The track on this deal is as set as it can be. Variances that occur are within noise/acceptable error and not really predetermined It's the amplitude and QPF verification that is in question

The whole system seems a bit over-wrought. Wouldn't be the first time the guidance proved too amped ... Then in now-cast the lower edge of verification starts materializing ... Thing is, source-origin and climo. It's not favoring upper ranged numbers. This event is born of a dry sourced polar wave (clipper-esque), and isn't joining or phasing with a deeper moisture source - only the Lakes upstream as a moisture inject ... and it's not physically very clear that's actually being sourced, either. Additionally, it is moving fast. It smacks a little like over-cooked QPF moving above climatology velocities through the area. Could snow hard but too briefly. Will go ahead with the consensus but ... I won't personally be surprised if this under performs by some.

It's conceptually interesting ... who would have thunk we'd be playing needle threader head games on a NW-SE trajectory. haha. wow. Just got back from eve stuff so way behind, but I just remember the runs from 00z last night and comparing to this new NAM run reminds me of playing that game but I've just not seen it from this direction. fascinating

coming almost straight S ...limited/no moderation before ALB-BOS gets loaded. Kind of a brief 'Montreal Express' looking at the sfc PP.

Unknown ... to me anyway. I will say that these cold nodes moving across southern Canada and clipping in here have been remarkably well lag-timed with these successive -EPO bursts. Both the Euro and CMC's recency have been showing a Jan 1-3rd cold plume with very deep 850s and low 500 mb hydrostats at the core moving N of Lake Superior ... thru Ontrario in that time range, and we see that 3 days prior there is a negative EPO burst again... it's been like that for that past 3 or 4 weeks. -EPO --> 3 to 5 days later we have ice fishers out there with their portable shacks. Anyway, it's not impossible that -EPO loads and then transitively ...something synoptically circumstantial like Friday morning sets up to then finish the delivery.

Looks like Ray down to Boston proper are getting some breezy snows?

Did you see that Friday morning ? holy gelid hell. That's a potent low level cold shot there. I've been watching that interval as it has been nearing and it's been getting colder. The profile is interesting at Logan, Albany and BTV ... all showing the 925 as colder than the 800 mb.

It's not snow you want ... it's snow depicted for a cinema-dopa connection. It's created out of advancing technology's affect ( and effect) going on with our species. LOL it's true though. If folks wouldn't "bi-polar" dial into the next model cycle you wouldn't have these group collective morosity waves that are more powerful than anything this type of persistent synoptic hemisphere ever had any hope of really delivering in the first place. But this latter aspect ... never seems to stop you. You have a big ridge in the middle longitudes of the continent, with a deep layer circumstantial NW flow - what part of that large scale footprint has ever correlated to significant snow? Not many. Stop on expectation failure one. Failure two, meanwhile ... the mid and ext range guidance give these 'so-so gets hammered' dopa hits, when guidance over all consummately proves over-amplified since antiquity at this point ...and invariably need be corrected down as assumption. This latter aspect has been explained to the point of advertisement. Heads nod, couple blinks ...then the next guidance run comes out and eyes roll back in head and orgasm quivers kick in all over again. The problem is that the return users in here are dopa challenged in their lives - most likely. Perhaps then channeling a means to fulfill it by creating this weather graphics triggering mechanism. Or they've just fallen victim to the "blue-light special" - psychotropic addictive aspect that is proven to be a thing. Either way ... you're allowing this device to dopa regulate you. I feel the former is correct, however, based upon my own experience. I have created hobbies and successes in areas of life that do not require this weather -related stuff. I get joy from those engagements... and, most importantly, when that happened, I stopped caring about the former - or caring as much. I mean... I like seeing the charts and evolution of interesting events. But it's not required. I think if folks understood these aspects it might help them self-regulate their moods better. That's the only purpose for bringing this up.

hahahaha.... damn! thought I got one past you. That part of it's a chode tug just cause I was being a dick, but I do see similarities among these years whether we/you/I want to see it or admit or not - and... I don't claim that it is CC outright. I am open to that being the case but more seriously, there was a speed/velocity saturation in the flow every one of these years that is/was/still is near the top of the geophysical ceiling during winter core. There's a reason all these air-land airline speed records have been set in the last 10 to 15 years, for those intercontinental flights over the N Pac and Atlantic. It's because they're traveling in the slip stream of mega jets, where they have to open the throttle and fly very fast to maintain lift ... which requires near sonic speeds relative to the stationary E... It's 200 kt 300 mb wind flow ... you gotta move the 60 ton vehicle at 600 mph to maintain the air-relative 500 whatever mph it is they need to stay fuel efficient ...etc. So regardless of the reason ( CC or the CD ) ... It's probably going to be observable in January ...again. It's based upon persistence for now.