Typhoon Tip

I guess this La Peurta was 104F the internets getting memewhelmed with “hottest n/a winter temp ever” Has to be validated but that’s the scuttlebutt

Welp … SLK and HIE making 32 in August are not climate-relative equivalent to what’s going on down there… Just sayn’

I have know idea what’s the average first date of big heat is down there but it seems like 100 must be early.

OH yeah..ha right. 6 times then. Forgot about 2015.. although I thought that 2 foot but meh close enough Definitely an uptick in the frequency of big dawgs compared those previous decades though. man

It's interesting that 1978 and 1996 are the only two years I have in my personal log that had 30" in a single event - and I wasn't a part of the 1996. Yet, I have been proximal to the same event that has done that 4 times just since 2010. Maybe 5... If we're basing the odds of getting that on some kind of experience or climate inference, be aware of the risks.

Reposting other people's tweets is such a bore. jesus - It's not like we haven't already discussed the exact same shit, with more zeal and sophistication. Yeah. We know already

I've noticed that of the two, the AI GFS tends to warmer overall synoptics than the AI Euro by smaller to mid options.

Heh ...that thing for the 4th turned ugly on this Euro. 24 hours ago that was a moderate fast moving snower. Now it's a 48/47 misty rhea sector under a CNE transit. Yuck Rather the fucker shoot up the St L and balm.

There were two periods to this warm up... The first being a contentious argument between winter and spring that begins really Sunday and lasts trough the 9th or so. The second being an implied if not explicit very warm couple of three days between the 10th and the Ides... This 12z GFS is attempting to discontinue the latter of the two as a brand new reconstruction of the continental synopsis by the 10th.

His point has merit though. Related to, the definition of extremes is getting diminished by increasing frequency of them. Some would like to hide in the cozy euphemism that it is just cycles of nature playing out, and the gaslight of that evasion of reality is that yeah .. nature does have cycles. But excluding that denial tactic ( which is either amoral, a straight question of competent intelligence/education/etc, or a mash up of all), the frequency increase graph is matching the CC graph... sort of like a Keeling Curve for events, not CO2. haha. Nice cozy fit. 'Sides, math has already demoed that extremes increase in a d(climate). Tongue in cheek aside... you almost feel better about getting a repeat of the "extraordinary" now, than you would living in 1990.

That looks really cold Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Monday's eve is steeped in a sneaky Montreal Express; very efficient transport of low level syrup from western QUE/E Ontario. Thickness say 520 to 525 but the sounding may be more upright with the coldest, relative to normal, being the lowest 300 mb space of the sounding. It's all happening over a pan-dimensional snow pack, too. I bet we decouple and see (the season's last?) -0s lows in the interior around 4 am Tuesday morning. Might even call that the local pattern nadir, and it's rising in principle through the 10th after that.

Man... talk about radiative cooling .. all the way down to 3 degrees at FIT

This has gotten smeared a bit. For me, the warm up wasn't really until the 10th all along. The hemispheric move toward that destiny takes some work. Begins spanning the first week. These overrunning looks are really just systemic consequence in transitioning from a winter troposphere to a warmer one. That's bound to be noisy/error prone in guidance as to what happens and when. But one thing we are seeing is that the warmth likely wins by the 10th, amplitude of which to be determined. How long it lasts out there is unclear but obviousness to the time of the year would perfunctory argue that it regresses at some point before Apr 1. The indexes are 50/50 at this time... 2010 and 2012s can happen, but we probably need another 50 years of CC before those become more common haha

It won't be that way ..c'mon. People are just angst/frustrating the inevitable ending of winter, just like every year, so their venting by overselling the downside and scapegoating spring as a means to vent. Ha. And yeah, folks are just having fun with whoa-ism hyperbole, too. Still, there'll be good stretches. It is true, the bad stretches can be, and probably will be, particularly bad at times - made torturous whenever the stuck Farmington front separates 38 F in Lowell while it's 70 in NYC. But there'll be d-slope dandy days once in a while. There could also be one or two ridge anomaly patterns along the course.