Typhoon Tip

You know ...there are certain things the NAM is good at - though they seldom if ever opportune to showcase for this forum. Namely, 'convective initiation' Another thing, I really like looking at the FOUS grid before winter storms. I know it's error and idiosyncratics. I apply those second nature on the fly and find those numerical aspects to be hugely useful for interpolating weather aspects. So it will be missed. I'm not trying to defend it's synoptic horror show ...particularly beyond 48 hours, no. But when this model goes away, there will be no FOUS gridded product from these other models to be acquainted with.

Correct did that at 06 z too. Looks like there's a low out there ~ 995 mb, replete with a bent back warm front and dangling cold boundary, yet the NAM-aramadingdong thinks it's a 985 Cat 1 hurricane.

There's irony this hour ... because while I essentially agree that this was never tropical this, that, nor the other d-drip worthy ...the NAM is actually attempting to perform one of the most rapid conversions to purer tropical core and even RI cycling than has ever been observed or even thought plausible in the Terran physical manifold. LOL

Broadly conceptualizing ... Baroclinic systems expand there influence due to frontal synoptic forcing... and temperature gradient related mechanics. Barotropic tropical systems are by physics drawn to core ... this thing's going for Category 3 intensity with that NAM look there - probably a erroneous solution.

Yeah, the NAM's pretty much going 90th percentile full profile conversion straight to a tropical entity with that solution As such, it's contracting

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted. I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days. Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal. not -1 ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational. 570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way. I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long. We can definitely still get it done.

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance, CMC/GFS/EURO All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat. Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

I dunno, was there one scheduled? ha It prompted me to look.. I hadn't been paying attention because of this thing in the foreground but Wed thru Sat this next week look pretty mild? Not sure if that will qualify as a torch, per se. There are differing subjective opinions on what that entails ...but recent GFS runs have 570+ dm thickness centered on a week from today. With 564 to 570 Wed, Thu and Sat .. All four days with general W wind. Some frontal entanglement but looks weak with very little actual CAA Fwiw. The Euro's bit more aggressive with a cold front on Friday but still doing so amid a warm anomaly in the ambience doesn't send a very chilly vibe. 570+ before the front, 562 behind with WNW isn't the same as having a high pressure parked N imparting days of chilly ENE like this week.

It's almost like a TUTT on steroids in some ways.

By small amounts ...some more coherent than others, the guidance were too deep/structurally evolved for what is observed at 12z May or may not be indicative of much. We'll see. We may be disappointed in Now-cast ranges. I'm not completely sold on how far above pedestrian inclemency this will be. I think the lunar tides and surface feed-back should be fun either way. Op ed that no one asked for but ... my original impression of this scenario from 2 or 3 days back was that it was dubiously too amplified in the guidance. Two main reasons for suspecting so ... 1, the total S/W wave mechanics feeding into the region were very weak. As far as I can tell that still seems to be the case. At the time this was a bit of a head scratch as to what was driving this ordeal. The best I could surmise was that this was a very (if perhaps unusually so) non-linear in origin. The circulation mode from the eastern Pac across N/A is technically is in a strong, albeit transient, negative PNAP. The polar branch retreated N very quickly, earlier in the week - so fast it left a weakness pearled out from the S Lake through the mid Atlantic.. Similar to a "pinch cut-off" you see in April climo - but it is doing it amid a higher ambient height medium. You realize, the hydrostats are in the mid 560s during this - we've been close to 90 F at the surface with 566 dm thickness before! Yet, it's so raw.. It's bizarre, maybe some tized aspects going on... Anyway, a ridge from James Bay clear to Florida would be geophysically hard to maintain, particularly when the flow around it is not that strong. So the heights inside 'implode' ... My feel on that is that the models were over assessing this ambient, large scaled mass balancing response, as a total forcer. 2, the other reason is much simpler ... guidance et al tend to shed amplitude as they move events from the extended toward the short lead periods. It's really quite a dependable corrective behavior. It's never been abundantly clear why they do this, but I suspect it has something to do with not yet seeing the emergence of noise/offsets/and interferences that will inexorably arise - they only see the system with the most prominent physical signature out in time. If, then, the prominence is the only thing there is, they are maximizing it. Something like this...

A "projector theory" of sorts is probably an easy back into when the "holographism" idea was put forth. Where is the image coming from then ..etc. Different processes in getting there, though. The ontological manifestation of reality in my Sci Fi idea is that every step after the Plank unit communication, creates a new layer of synergism ... with new synergistic foci. This is why birth happens at our level ... one among all actions traceable to the first primal creation. Those then interact, because their progenitor foci also interacted, and on and on... producing new layers with new foci interactions. Incomprehensibly large numbers of synergistic products later ... the naked tree against the gray winter sky looks identical to a higher resolution rendering of a river's complete water basin. And hence ... the "inheritance" I was describing in the earlier missive is exposed, as is reality. hint hint... nothing is truly unique or original. The primitive mind - perhaps - categorizes as a survival tactic, but then is imprisoned for eternity in a perception that the categorization describes reality. The mathematics is reused and repurposing, but it's just describing the relationships of the synergistic field - which means we're certainly species -capable of perceiving that something is going on that connects the stars. So..okay, my idea may bear some semblance to your Loop QT - and in fact, ...I think I saw a 5 minute conjecture on that either in a meme, or on the Science channel with a Sean Carol type - though not him... Can't specifically recall, but I can understand why you think it may be similar.

ah, gotcha Yeah, and I'm also waiting on the NAM's dependable NW bias to kick in, too. we'll see

Surf should be fun. Don't need those ( likely ) hyperbolic ideas of "90 mph" wind gust coming out of some the usual weather pundits to be a substantial ocean risk for the shores. This looks like a 48 hours of sustained 35 mph integrating energy into the tumult. What do the lunar guys say?

It's actually recovered pretty well here... 37 to now 65. We can still put ~ 1.5 hours of heating into this bad boy. Not sure we're going higher than 68 at this time of year and soundings but ... close to able to open the windows and let some of that 'warm' air in... I play this game every autumn ... how long I can wait until I kick on the heat. It used to matter for me as I was a base-board resister heated home up until last year. Resisters are money pits! I've since installed a compressor/Mini split sys and it's fractions of the cost and vastly more efficient. Also updated the windows and modernized some other stuff so... it's probably no big whoop just to flip it over to Heat from Cool but I still like the challenge haha this is year is ahead of schedule. The game usually doesn't commence until somewhere October 10ish... I've been actually trading punches with it for 4 days at this point. This morning I was about to flip but I got distracted by work calls... by the time I got off it's in the mid 60s and full sun and I'm like well...