Typhoon Tip

No problem from me. I said 2 weeks ago when this started looking encouraging via the various methodologies ... that we are being enabled in our hiding from the truth - so to speak. 'All winter ... ' 'everything's the way it should be'. yeah, riiight. Despite anyone's personal belief, the objective reality is that CC has claimed enough of our tendency vectors, that as soon as we close down the cold source into mid latitude N/A the NE Pacific circulation mode - I even annotated charts to show, "...As long as this feature is there, winter is within reach" - it's perpetual autumn. While it is there, it is easy for people to either not be aware, forget, or just flat out deny that we blow torch ( relative to normal...) at a higher pitch than prior climate generation, and do so more and more dependably. And it shows... Those weirdly extraordinary heat bursts in February and March since the earlier 2000's, taking place regardless of antecedent established long and short telecon correlation biases, ... are a part of that. etc etc. Just as much as the "cold" January turns out to not even be appreciably below normal across the total subforum - somewhere in that reality is a cold pattern that can't quite get it done. Oblivious though... So, hey ... as long as we're dumping -25 C 850 mb plumes through NW Canada and spreading them out to 45 N, we can bury our head in the winter sand of it all, like a cat hiding their head in a brown paper bag while their tail and ass sticks out thinking that is their world and they are all safe. LOL ...seriously, my cat used to do that when it gets scared. It's pretty funny

The weekend is less clear for the southern 1/3 to 1/2 of this sub-forum. Yesterday it was more clear; that clarity has been disrupted overnight by a trend to push the low track farther N. It's right on the door stop at this point from being a full breach warm intrusion for MA/CT/RI; but for now, we we're narrowly escaping with minoring mix ending as liquid rain S of VT/NH. In fact, with 552 dm thickness, and initially a WNW flow ahead of the cold front Sunday morning that I'm seeing in the Euro and GGEM... if the sun comes out in that region there's going to be awesome rise/appeal to the air mass for several hours as it is. Up there you'd have to correct this - by the way - weak to middling system more so before this becomes a problem for you. We'll see if the things settle back S -

Notice how that took place in a relaxed deep tropospheric, lateral gradient in the non-hydrostatic heights too - there's a 975 mb low under that. We can't seem to get this over on our side of the hemisphere in recent years. If/when it is cold enough for winter events, the cold itself seems it cannot evolve to middle latitudes without compression/velocity saturation. Cold seems to always arrive with base-line negative interference. What we need is for more of the gradient to be in the hydrostatic heights (the "thickness"). Not the other way around...

Again … very similar in size and duration as this event on the 6th.

Ha... that's an interesting thought. I was haven't considered them in aggregate. I've see that only once around here, though ...way back in the late 1980s. There was a nondescript icing event and then it got cold. I remember still hearing that crinkling sound when the wind would blow through the trees like 4 days later. Then, there was a nor'easter brewing and there was concern for wind and snow loading on the ice but it didn't actually become an issue.

Unfortunately ..this event isn't likely to produce much of either. 5" of snow is likely tops. .35" glazing where/if all ice.

That's a nice comparison to 1994 ... I think we must've talked about it before as memory serves, but one of those systems was an IP carpet bombing while heavy blowing and drifting OEs banding was pummeling underneath. Strange. It even came out as far as Acton where I was living then, and I remember at one point we had 1/4 mi vis from breezy 20:1 shattering snow, while the sound of hail on the car tops. I'd never seen that combination of ptypes and haven't really since.

The Euro's 12z, 120 hour layout is right out of a mid March winter storm set up... HUGE thickness dipole across the eastward extension of the polar boundary - March's and even latter February's this gets to be interesting. Here we are signaling why storms at that time of year can once in a while, massively over-achieve. The only limitation to this one is likely to be the attending S/W is probably being attenuated for moving through a very compressed field, otherwise, in principle, that could be a very dangerous set up. As is, it probably means that it would likely over produce where ever it is precipitating as the storm formulates through that gradient pathway -

Not quite as cold as the GFS but damn close ... Close enough that I suspect we could be coalescing a consensus. GFS has moved maybe 70 total miles in 3 days of guidance. The Euro's getting away with not moving as much as it's just cooling everything off - reluctantly getting to a similar result. The surface PP in the Euro solution looks more like it's bending around BL cold forcing than "admitting" the GFS is right about a low down there... haha sumpin' li' ghat

agreed ... I add it's also on the table, too.

Scott already mentioned it but here's an example of how to get a duration event in a fast flow... you can see the elongation here is making up spatially for the rate of motion being so fast. Heh.. another way to look at it. D= R*T ... when the D is very large ( like ^ ), then the time ( duration of the event in this context...) becomes large. 100 MI/40 mph versus 1,000 mi/ 40mph

I'm at 15.5" for the season. I think my seasonal average is 58 here ? Will? someone knows...

yeah, can't disagree in principle. It's just physically not happening when the flow is so fast. Big systems require big curvature, which speed fights curvature in the purely Newtonian sense. It just exceeds the Corriolis parameter and blah blah blah you know what I mean but getting out there in time, there is signs of a relaxed EPO with a rising PNA ...sort of a reversal... It's vague for the time being but if it gets more coherent... probably favors more of a larger body event. you're right about the method for duration in a fast flow. You just need to get sort of luckily positioned in a dynamics series, and it becomes like 36 hours with a couple of waves going by just underneath. it's pretty much the only way to do it when a balloon ride competes with air line traffic velocity patterns. j/k

Yeah, not sure I agree tho - I get the excitement but the compression/speed is a huge limiting factor to big dawg constructed events. But that should be okay.. you load up enough nickle and dimes and have them succeed, you're getting there in the aggregate - and in terms of entertainment value it's probably better because of the constant dopamine heh. seriously though -

I know ... that solution would go a considerable distance toward mending broken hearts -