Typhoon Tip

One way or another, the fast atmosphere wins, and claims some hours off this thing

12” S/BR 11F

Damn… I thought you guys were talking about the AI euro That’s the actual euro at 18 Z That would be quite the massive snow for the DC - Philly region on that look right there. That almost looks like it would maybe then dress straight east unless there can be more -NAO south of Nova Scotia. That’s only six days away. And it’s in that index window that I was hitting at over the last 10 days. Yeah the models just don’t seem to really wanna commit to that, though. I almost wonder if the speed of the atmosphere wave traffic being pretty high it’s kind of blinding Cause usually when these indexes flag signal that strongly come Hell or high water or something happens. But I guess with 6 days to play that’s enough time to manifest. We’ll see.

Yeah, I’ve made it no secret that I tend to check out by mid February most years Little hypocrisy because if we’re gonna have an 1888 March bomb or something or 1993 or 1956, whatever obviously I’ll tune back in, but that’s mostly for the meteorological exotic nature of what’s going on. But if it’s just gonna be run-of-the-mill snowing five or 6 inches on April 20 when you can see it in the weather charts that six days later it’s gonna be up to 60° again. I don’t care for that. Another person probably doesn’t feel the same way in here. People croon for it in April. It’s like people! ha ha ha.

Safe really until the 8th … We exit the solar min and enters the solar transition season on that date. But it’s slow at first … the sun feels more noticeably warmer approaching the 20th+ But it will come fast. Just like in the end of July you think you have a lot of summer and you turn around and it’s September 6. that’s why I like my seasons front loaded… Cold and snow loaded if you can early on and then just give it up when the solar transition season start. Same thing in summer with all my heat from May and June…July 20. Altho caveat because golf gets nice in Sept. October November are just boring to me.Don’t get me started about hell on earth, April. If April could ever be a nice month - Obviously these are all pipe dreams though.

Too much energy expended in the semantics of the "SWFE" when the term never should have been invented in the first place. Meteorology already defines this type of precipitation cause by isentropic lift. That's all it is. SWFE is just overrunning, because the warm air outpaces the retreat of cold air, and thus... is forced over it. The other thing is that it is not that uncommon for isentropic events to morph into coastals. Sometimes there's a lull as the IB moves off, then the coastal gets going. Sometimes the transition is smoother... it's all kind of variant. We'll see what happens tomorrow but it looks on the PP layout like a coastal that is moving too fast to really clip on the way out. So we end up with a cough CCB decay ...

S/BR 1/4 mi vis 6F 8"

1/3 mi vis 7.25” S at the moment

People should put down the models and just like enjoy this?

S 4.25” est vis 1/3 mi 5F

Same here ... it's 'almost' S+ during a couple different intervals over the last two hours, but it quickly recedes back to a pedestrian S fall rate. Vis est 1/2 mi ... flirting with 1/4 mi when they occurred. Be that as it may, just under 4" here, so as expected ...accumulation is quite efficient in this cold air.

S/S+ est vis 1/4 mi 2.75" 6 F

Clearly a CF dump axis from PWM to ORH there... The other max is terrain enhancing.. whether that actually happens, notwithstanding

Better growth coming down now. Instead of cryo fog-, it's S- with actual discernible aggregates, albeit on the small side

I just keep musing tongue-in-cheek over how 6 days ago, we were looking at this continental mauler storm affecitng everywhere but here... Then, 6 days later... while it certainly is affecting a lot of the country, it actually appears to want to max where it was 0, six days ago - squarely right here in SNE that's an interesting model saga