Typhoon Tip

Borderline big heat tomorrow. As expected ... headlines now flying. Prooobably 94 to 95? 95+ is sort of the "unofficial" "big heat" criteria. But it probably really should go by the HI values.

Chuck, I just dropped this over in the ENSO thread because I believe that's relevant -

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state.

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics.

I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance. All but compelled to add 2 point bump out of respect for superb heating combined with "non-Markovian" feedback, no less.

Welp .. 75 here as we pass into the 10am hr "10 after 10" puts us in the 80s ... but being on the north side of a sag front that has observable site winds coming off the ocean. That says no...but, temps rising unimpeded as trend says yes. Minor competing signals there. I guess the wind being very light, in the 10kt range may not be enough. It's like you could work it out mathematically. Determine what the necessary E wind strength has to be during the solar max in order to overcome diurnal heating. I bet 10 kts isn't enough? Something like that. The shallow boundary is already apparently coming back as a warm front, according to WPC ... the previous update had this as a cool front where it is now warm in CT. I guess the late high T surge idea of the NAM has legs.

Ho man. The wonder of weather, snuffed out. we joke but there will be a weather modification future. It's just too intuitively easy to see that. Quantum Computing is basically going to expose at some point, how to force "the quantum computing of the cosmos" - so to speak. That is, in any future where human tech does not stop the the future from taking place before getting there - oh yeah..that. I mean just recall synoptic II and learning how/why chaos will never allow modeling to be very precise beyond whenever. Can't stop the spontaneity of emerging future feedbacks blah blah the prediction unavoidably gets corrupted. Well, the easy antidote is ...don't try to predict that then. Control it. It seems quantum scale perturbation is a realm where actual Quantum Computing might be uniquely adapted to handle. Control being apropos. Seems that way anywho

About as many times as it actually happens j/k. yeah who knows. There's nothing wrong with commiserating the modles

...that'd be an interesting war -tech. Imagine a distant future world where weather modification replaced forecasting. Other than ruining this pastime ... maybe such a realm would include the WMD, Weather Machine of Destruction that throws big storm bombs at enemies. I dunno, where the hell is the end goal of Quantum Computing and what does that look like?

Not that you asked 'how' but what's happening in those guidance formulations is something more akin to the 00z GFS' aggressively suppressed version overall. BN, but dry results. Which ...I'd take that as a compromise over a wet dildo flogging as though the Canadian and European forecast offices conspired and directly parameterized their models to specifically target and destroy Mem Weekend for joy destruction. haha I guess for now... solace in the notion that it's 120+ hours away so maybe the shits models runs'll change.

Yeah and I'm not predicting a torpedoed summer per se. Just annoyed by it, because I don't like BN weather in late spring and summer heh ... kind of a snarky post. But it does appear the polar jet is unusually strong and guiding the pattern still as we get pretty damn late in the spring here. If I were capable of completely divorcing personal druthers from it all, I guess it's gotta be interesting to have that taking place in +d(Climate)

Something's off... these higher res model types look too warm given Esty beasties off glacial guts water. They're all doing this sort of look by 18z tho. huh

Wasn't even a BD ... It was a N-S sag front. But I mentioned this yesterday. May not be as warm in the E. Do the temps still in the 60s E of 95 and 70s E of ORH for a while..? Winds are light behind this front and there's not a whole helluva lot of actual cold transport with that. Shallow layer... Sun could eat it up by lunch, but with the winds in situ E and ENE already, I'm just wondering if the cold ocean anomaly might not be in the MOS/machine coverage very well. Day's long tho. The NAM is insisting the boundary collapses back NE, showing a sfc SW wind burst at Logan in the 21 to 24hr period of early evening. Late high for eastern zones.

I wonder if the polar jet is just going to continue careening straight through to the fall for fuck's sake it won't stop. So this is turning into just another prick tease warm up - yet again. At least it's more than a single day I suppose. But that's an October circulation ordeal after the front Thu/Fri. Then the weekend's obliterated by cold overrunning with a high banked N. F grade for being warm season respective.

Not worth a conversation once you get these compressors installed… Microclimate your house with mini splits to switch between as needed and be done with it. No conversation required. not getting dragged into, but I will say it’s odd. You guys spend so much time worried about whether other people manage their thermal aversions.