Typhoon Tip

So ... curious, why does his posting content matter you. You're saying on one hand that everyone's entitled to their opinion, then saying he "keeps bashing" - that doesn't sound like we are allowing people their opinion. It should not and in fact, logically does not matter what the opinion content is when it comes to rendering perspectives about the 3rd party subject that is also completely virtual btw.

Well ... if it is wrong and a +PNA does take place instead, that would justify setting probabilities. I will just say that in my 25 years of these index awareness', which includes observing their correlations both in situ, and over time spans, and how the various mass fields they numerically represent ( teleconnections) then subsequently interact ...etc, I haven't seen a modeled +PNA win as a direct go to very often. Typically, when in modeling conflict that starts with the PNA, when the EPO arrives in the guidance, the PNA suspends and/or mutes ... Again, with time lag... the -EPO collapses and the +PNA then materializes. All the overnight stuff is doing is telling us that the previous paradigm is not going to go straight into a +PNA... It is going to go a route that frankly tends to happen most of the time. It'll be interesting to see where this goes. By the way, don't look at the 12z GFS operational run.

I just spent time putting together a post that explains ... the recent anticipated emergence of the positive PNA is now in question. Paraphrase: the ensembles means, all three sources, are moving the breakdown of the -WPO/hyprid stuck pattern of the last several weeks, ...more toward a -EPO variant, more so than a +PNA. That's a change, because the the latter pattern type was signaled for awhile. As an aside, the EPO is not very well correlated to the PNA on the daily. It is actually correlated to a positive PNA with time lag... So that would imply later on... pushing a +PNA out to latter month. There's uncertainly because of the newness of all this. This was/is based upon rather abrupt changes that arrived slowly over the last 2 days in the GEFs, but then overnight last night, the GEFs surged into this new paradigm ( shown with charts in that post), and it is being joined by the others... etc. It is inherently a continuity break so - we have to give it some modeling cycles.

I like this, Kevin. It's an honest perspective based upon real experience; nicely stated too.

Ha... it could show progress, actually. Like even the populace is getting their minds around the notion that GW is as much about huge variance ( to wit, 'cold' is part of that), as it is the actual warming itself. There's a compendium of reasons you and I know that the general population doesn't really have to - just that they know the variances are bigger. That all said... I don't think it represents progress in this case. LOL Maybe what it represents is when this particular etho-chamber social media nears apoplexy over the fact that it doesn't seem to matter what index says this, or pattern says that... or Met extols the virtues of their own brilliance ... blah blah. 'Where's the fucking 7 contoured hornet parked on near Block Island!!' One raging a battle against a 1040 mb high pressure over Moose Turd Ontario wouldn't hurt. haha. Have it followed by a trough that offers another toke off the blue-light (internet chart) pipe after, too.... all that. \ So frustrated that we're willing to through GW into the reasons?

It's amazing how warm those springs were ... Not sure if there was specific cool waves along the MAMs but I don't believe those offset the warmth enough to make them average? interesting

With regard to assessing the pattern trajectories, only ... changes took place among the ensemble systems overnight bearing different implications than those we'd been discussing over the last few days. Short version: Intstead of going form a -WPO hybrid/stuck resonant pattern breakdown, into an at least low amplitude +PNA ... the cinemas now are relaying the former more directly into a -EPO. Longer version: The GEFs mean, in fact, went hugely amplified with it. I kind of kick myself here ... a little. Because the GEFs was hesitating all along. The nightly EOF calcs for the PNA was always the least +D(PNA) of the three. Then the overnight's went hard toward a reason why. This is the two-day total change spanning 348 to 300 hours out That does not represent a low amplitude +PNA. That is a dominating -EPO hemisphere there. I call that a big and sweeping change, because the implications are not the same. Yes, yes ...obviously, this is 300 hours blah blah blah... however, it matters if we are in the business of extended range/early risk assessing, which falls out of pattern recognition. Low amplitude +PNA will tend to host a different spectrum of risks compared to those correlated to nearing cross polar flow amplified -EPOs. I'm sure by now people are ready to pounce at those difference ...go for it. But, in the meantime, I strongly suspect the reason the 6-10th period is getting seeming blurred and less coherent as we approach, when in theory is should be getting better, may be tied to these sweeping changes taking place. 6-10th fit the PNA expectation for the last 3 or 4 days nicely. Above? not so much. So there may still be a window ... didn't wanna get into specific event coverage but I will just say, that period is still in the inflection window between the -WPO break down, then this emergence above. There could be an opportunity in there. Here's the EPS and the GEM, showing the same move toward a higher amplitude -EPO. The EPS shows the move but's subtler, admittedly... I don't think it necessarily diminishes the suspicions though, it still moved. It just all smacks pretty hard like we're heading for a different paradigm than we may have thought, one with a different spectrum of risk correlations. Colder in the means is one implication ... the best correlation over any attempt at a specific event, that's for sure. But I also want to remind... it was stated over the last couple days that this change is fluid/in itself, changeable. We basically were higher confidence of moving away from the erstwhile -WPO/hybrid weirdness... Where it ultimately goes ..heh.

Or actually … suppose it did stall/loop, it might’ve occluded and I’ve seen rad shred really quickly when that happens - it probably would’ve folded in on itself unexpectedly fast and that would’ve been how it left something on the table

Yeah… Show me that Can you imagine the ecstatic fervency in this social media as that thing was congealing in the models? L O L It does remind me… I’ve had this conversation with other Mets. There’s always something that gets left on the table. Somehow someway, even the very best of the best. The GOATs are not even perfect. But … At some point you’re not noticing because everything else is just so overwhelming. Probably like the blizzard of 78? Maybe 1888? Few other argumentative’s in there over the hundred yrs. They’re like above the 95th percentile without fucking up.

I’ve crossed over some kind of gestational changing of mentality on that stuff… Yup, I guess I’m gettin’ old I want a 72 inch never ever has happened before OD dopa menace hyperbolic storm so powerful that the Earth hiccups in its orbit about the sun… all around me where I only get two inches within a diameter of about oh … say 10 miles or so, so I can still get out and about and do what I need to do.

interesting warm excursion going on in the Arctic

Maybe the patterns only looked good on the surface…

Must be black ice everywhere road surface is sparkling

Okay...I gotta clear something up - if need be... But some of you appear focused on the colors of those non-hydrostatic charts? That peachy color over the Canadian archipelago and adjacent areas of higher latitude up there, those do not depict a block. All those colors depict there is higher than normal heights. That's actually a non-blocked, +PNA flow, that happens to be above normal heights in all directions. It's actually a fantastic anomaly to see that at this time of year for other reasons.. Anyway, you have to look at the geometry of the curving isohypses.

Right ...cuz Tolland's in a relative min/face smack slot there so you know yours must be balls on right