Typhoon Tip

Wow.. GFS' starting to look like Feb 2020 ...

Yeah, I actually don't have a problem with it. Fits the general modal changes that are increasingly in conflict with the idea of placing amplitude in the MA to NE. There can still be aspects rippling through the field, so not intending to 'whiff' per se... just that it's within the realm of possibility with a strong -d(PNAP) in the background.

Speaking of big picture ... the big picture is trying to see-saw the pattern into a -PNAP structure. Whilst some of these prior runs were also driving a trough through the eastern rising heights of that -d(PNA) ? that's a red flag, and probably why the operational GFS is pulling the rug on that event as a no show. I should have seen this myself sooner but heh, I'm seeing it now. It may or may not 86 the idea altogether, but I wouldn't go more than middling with all that in mind. I think those eye-candy Euro runs from the other day are less able to verify given the large scale is negatively interfering. This is the mirror equivalency to ending a heat wave on Aug 10 after a hot summer, and the models looking tepid out in time. The warm enthusiasts are arguing that the back isn't broken this and that... while cool enthusiasts are overselling the significance of it... rinse repeat.

Go ahead and ruin their d-drip, then that's what they're after. They think they're manipulating you, programming you to say something that will allay their fears and dread. You need to tell them, "you will be afraid, and dread, and like it!" Then, let the actual AN highs be what they may. Haha. Seriously though, a large part of this is the physical tactility of it anyway. If we get to 47 and the wind is light and sky blue with sun now strong enough to cause the air to shimmer, you'll have dudes with there arms out of their pickup truck windows and people out for runs in shorts and a tee-shirt. The acclimation is pretty pressed on the cold side so nape days are gonna feel even warmer ... magnifying the winter enthusiast's fears and dread just as much as if it were 60, anyway. So go with fun killer - you'll score. lol

If it's a real event, it's in a marginal atmosphere. About 15 or so years ago ... I began noticing that our "flop direction" is more wet than it used to be. We seemed to more and more so need a direct cold supply into/as a prerequisite, or systems tended to rain will less blue snow types ( winter). It's kind of dilemma, because if we do have the direct cold sourcing, the N/stream is active ...but the catch 22 there is that the flow is sped up and compressing, which is a canvas negative interference. I've been wondering since these models recently began to pull the N/stream away, if we might see this and there it is... The event profiles are going back to more marginal temperature. We snap back to a reality that we've been enabled for the past several months ... not to face. Also, this snow pack - at least around here ... - does not contain a huge load of water content. It's fluffy yet still since the bigger event on Jan 26. If we get a 40 F raining coastal followed by +2 850 mb during transition season solar irradiance on d-slope backside flow, we will be bear ground probably faster the some might think. Cross that bridge I guess... The GEFs aren't yet interested and keep thing progressive and weak through that period. It's coming from midland strength southern streamer coming through the SW. It's actually similar to what led the big even on Jan 26, only this time ...no N/stream. But it may not be coming from a very densely sampled atmosphere. Lot to consider -

I suspect that 16th system in these recent GFS runs is legit

Ha. you know ... I've often thought that the 21s date-designation for seasonal demarcation as a being humanity bullshit anyway. According to a mash up history lesson by NOAA and the Royal Met Society, The 21st is often recognized as a seasonal change date because it aligns closely with the astronomical events of the solstices and equinoxes, which are determined by Earth's position relative to the Sun. Specifically, the March equinox, marking the start of spring in the Northern Hemisphere, typically occurs around March 20 or 21, while the September equinox marks the beginning of autumn around September 22 or 23. That bold is bullshit. Why? Because it doesn't account for the solar increasing irradiance that takes place before March 21. Nor does it account for the solar irradiance lost prior to the September 21. Both times in which there are notable increase vs decrease ( respectively) in the mean temperature (ie, seasonality), which are a direct response to the gain vs dimming caused by Earth's position relative to the Sun. Hello? So, I give these sources ( and the AI that did the mashing ...) a bit of a pass on this because they are after all having to describe this stuff to idiocracy - different discussion. However, in reality, winter should end, and spring should begin, on the date that the solar min ends. Spring ends, summer begins on the date the solar max begins. Summer should end and autumn begins when the max ends and -transition solar season starts... And on and so on throughout the calendar year. Nov 8 to ~ Feb 9 is winter. Solar min Feb 9 to ~ May 7th is spring. +Solar transition May 7 to ~ Aug 10th is summer. Solar max Aug 10 to ~ Nov 8 is autumn. -Solar transition And these vary by latitude. Note, being 42 and change N, we are close to even parts per quarter, so 91.25 days plus the fact that the E spend a tiny more time on the summer part of it's orbit ... etc. That is more realistic and obeys/observes the physical constraints native to the celestial mechanics of our solar system.

There is a vague signal on the 15th/16th ... as that implies, not super coherent.

heh.. the back may be broken? Either way, winter isn't dead, however. The only change in guidance/means/blends that I see is that the intense cold is alleviating. It kinda has to, anyway. We're leaving the solar min today. The variance is not noticeable just standing there. It's a virtual boundary. However, circa the 20th and beyond, anomalies have to get more and more extreme to offset that factor. Coupling this with an abeyance of direct N/stream .. academic. In so far as what this means for the next 10 or so day... it looks like to me that the direct N/stream dominating flow type is backing off, that's all. Actually beginning on the heels of this present annoyance. However, not sure that marks the end as much as the emotion is marketing the end. Look at what is actually on the guidance, we're just changing from N/stream dominating cold, to oscillatory between seasonally cool and seasonally warm. In other words, typical for February. Normal February is still winter. Should the warm side of those oscillations win by some small margin...meh. I expect that much. That's more like manifesting the 1990-2020 climatology + the ongoing correction term, a latter aspect that is always in play really. Different discussion. this can all change .. but in so far as what is physically presented (and has been recently) in the guidance suites, not sure I see winter as being hugely hobbled just yet. The clock is certainly ticking...

I think it’s possible the models are underdoing or not responding rather to the north pacific yet We’ll have to see how this goes

If you need to.. I guess - Look, those that "feel" blunt truth is a trolling - grow the fuck up. Try reality for a change. Cold air masses at the same relative thickness are not as kinetically deep at the end of February, because the sun doesn't allow that. deal with it. Plus, the models are over amplified ...routinely, at that range. Add those two together, his point was spot on. These are facts.

Asshole or not ... he happens to be quite correct in those two points he made there.

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Tick killer cold on these NAM runs over the weekend. jesus christ

Heh...I was lookin at that. It's almost like the spread is literally too spread out and it's just lighting up the whole time span. Like it's evenly distributing members at different times.