Typhoon Tip

There should be some beef squalls along that cold front

But like I said… Supply a radical enough reconstruction of those flow components and then it’ll happen maybe Nothing is impossible

Is that a circulation mode analog? The problem isn’t the chunk move. It’s how can that happen with a Northwest of Southeast moving rampaging jet, and the progressive ridge, which is bulging east across the country at the same time It’s not a matter of whether it’s happening in history it’s a matter whether it can now

Still … one would have to be a nimrod not to be impressed with that anomaly

Different scenario…

Not at this range and not that much

It needs a chunk move. Which would take a pretty radical change in the azimuth of the N stream … I guess it could happen but it’s difficult to see how.

The suppressed Bermuda ridge is likely to introduce some challenges if/when it is there and this affair up in the -EPO --> N/A deep SPV sets up, but excluding that for a moment.. this, to me, has fundamentally more potential for winter event genesis. oh ... it's the la-la range GEFs, but they all have this look fwiw

You were NAO'ed Heh... 'not the first time anyone was, whence seemingly waiting on the commitment by the analyst, that's when NAO fails to show up. Intention? Charlie Browning - Personally I find the NAO to be the biggest most stochastic POS voodoo index that was ever defined. The problems in using it are textured and varied. Firstly, ( I'm not intending to lecture you; I'm just raging at the moment lol) is that it is actually created by the dispersion mechanics downstream off the Pacific -N/A wholesale wave signature. [ Enter pita flop computing power here ...] and viola! the NAO emerges in the guidance... Secondly, there are two behaviors, which is a major pain in the ass. The first is the obvious: blocking, identified by the geometry of the heights up there in the NAO geographic domain space. The other form is insidiously hidden - the hemispheric logistics around the region act as though that geometric identity must be there, when one is not very obviously defined... See, this is an indirect proof that the forcing actual coming from somewhere else. Whether heights bloom within that behavior or not, that's when the EOF calculations finally give negative numerical values. Anyway, so the NAO is so badly handled ...or, so much worse so than the other indexes, because it is at the flop end of the Pacific hose, where is complexity is also then exacerbated further by interaction across the N/A continent. In fact, it's probably more useful for when it does materialize on a D10 chart up there, to just correlate it to a period of uncertainty from the Pacific -

Yeah ... true, and also, a large number of the engagers in here really probably don't have enough background if not capacity to follow along with this stuff. Have to be patient. So anyway, it's a pretty text book -EPO thrust and then 5 or so day evolution after the fact into either a quasi PNA or outrightly so ... whence the cold comes S-E the rest of the way to the coast out there. As discussed ad nauseam ...yeah it may warm up during that 5 days, but that's not the end game. In theory...heh As far as events when it gets more after that ... I dunno. Hopefully the flow doesn't end up too compressed through all that. It could just be warm, then cold then nada

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from

For educational use only but here is Scott's climo warm flash out ahead of the -EPO burst... Both are represented here on this D10er ... subject to change but in principle, these players are well-supported/correlated. This would only be chapter 1.... Chapter 2 probably involves this eastern ridge erosion and some sort of at least transient +PNA ... perhaps D14ish... pure speculation but is also a correlated as the extrapolation

MJO DISCUSSION • Over the past several weeks, the MJO remains weak and disorganized, with other modes of variability being the predominant drivers of convective and circulation anomalies throughout the tropics. • La Nina related ocean/atmosphere anomalies persist, but have become more confined across portions of the equatorial Pacific. • Dynamical models have been consistent in favoring little to no reemergence of coherent subseasonal activity in the coming weeks, with large ensemble spread covering various phases in RMM space. • If any renewed MJO activity were to occur later in January, the western Pacific appears most likely based on upper-level velocity potential and lower level zonal wind anomaly forecasts. • The precipitation and tropical cyclone formation outlook relies mostly on the La Nina background state, model guidance and climatology, where additional tropical cyclogenesis is favored across the southern Indian Ocean and South Pacific. I find the bold intriguing. It insinuates the hemisphere is at present rather decoupled from the ENSO state. It matters to me ...because a lot of my own ideas for the late winter period were based upon more -ENSO contribution/correlation with other notable warm springs in the past; then combining with that the recent decadal observation of increasing pattern meanders associated with CC ... the dice seemed weighted toward warmer. If the -ENSO is struggling to couple to the pattern(s), it's unclear how long that would be the case for one...but suppose it persisted in the challenged state, that would have to be considered.

It's not an outright prerequisite but I like your overall approach here... What it does is changes the species. You go from Miller-A atmospheres to NJ Model Lows, which these latter kind "could be" considered Miller-B but they are not necessarily so. Either way, NJ Model low or Miller-B stressed and shredded... they move right along. The problem with Miller-B's in a fast atmosphere, the translation of the entire wave space moves along too fast and the "transfer" ( which is bs ..it's not a transfer in reality ) isn't given enough time for the new low to affect before it's expelled along the flow. Also, the speed doesn't allow the jet cross-sections to set up as proficiently either, and that offset the integrity of the new low that way. So both end up looking more sheary and shreddy and the Miller-B is challenged. NJ Model lows are systems where despite the fast flow enough amplitude occurs back west far enough to activate cyclogenesis nearing the coast... say over ~ WV ...When the nose of the jet/diffluence aloft approaches the natively intense thermal packing/+Baroclinicity near the Del Marva, a low detonates very quickly.. Sometimes bombing as she blossom out just under L.I. These clip the I-95 corridor from perhaps PHL on up to PWM. Albany may have dim sun while HFD-BOS has a 3 hour pulse of S+ with lightning and thunder. The best version of these were back in 1980s, then again around 1996. But they move really quick. 6 to 9 hours tops usually for totality.