Typhoon Tip

it’s interesting that Tue/Wed lower trop synopsis in there considering the local hemisphere

...no one person in particular mind you ... lol I just have a cataclysmic sense, like it is pending, global in scale - there are ...unnerving things going on that interestingly enough, no one in here talks about. interesting. closed circuit for a social media depot, I'll tell you that.

Most of you won't be alive in 2056

Oh..ha.. yeah, wedding out doors ...but you know, forecasting a wedding in April or early May should require at minimum a consult with a local climatologist, who most likely would have advised against that initiative. hahaha I mean, c'mon man. Really. Wedding most popular month is June. Not sure if that favorable weather -related, but I'm sure climate did influence that being the cast over many generations. It's just too hot in July and August for get-up entire, and prior to about June 7 is dodging buckshot patterns.

Seeing as you ask haha not me. Altho, with one stipulation - we don't parlay from week's ending rain into unending relentless Labradorian nut sweat weather that never truly ends until summer begins on August 11th and ends with an early cold snap in early September ...essentially ruining the whole summer. 2020 did something like that... ugly year for warm enthusiasts. No, the worst year was 2000. I lived in Waltham that summer... man... we put together a lot of 69/62 misty diurnals that year and it just stole the whole fucking go if it - Anyway, excluding something like that ... I'd like to grab a basin wide 2-3" soaker that then more ideally moves into days that are pithy warm - not gossamer like depending entirely on sun and nape affect. I like those...but the air smells like glacial farts in 60 shade/71 sun and just comes off as fragile and fake. But we dream ...

It's neat to watch this... That low in the ocean is clearly attempting to retrograde W at the same time this axis of schmutz is attempting to move E. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks ( again) like 10th to 15th of May's the next step out. Between now and then, variability with annoying troughs ... cold east oceanic flow, at other times false warmth type shit

Isn't that above average ?

Looks like the operational model versions are trying to keep the circulation more progressive through this weekend. Prior thinking was -NAO type back-logs would risk stalling rhea wheels in the region or close enough to shut down a 1/2 month's worth of outdoor life. If we end up with lows getting N of us though, event if it's BN ... west wind is at least interludes where it's better.

Yeah, good point. In order to trigger MAGAt republicans, the one dimensional linear thought progression is a much more effective management tool hav to rite in littel wurds

https://theonion.com/report-every-place-on-earth-has-wrong-amount-of-water-1851544516/

All these offices incurred staffing losses when we made 'merica fuckin' awesome agin'. I'm sure SPC, being under the NOAA umbrella, are in a similar situation where top-down imposed cuts erode their abilities? That'd be my high confidence guess, considering there's been articles written about how staffing cuts lent to poorer hurricane this and that, too... It's a pervasive problem that we the mouth breathers, in order to form a more perfect union, had the audacity to believe would get us anywhere closer to a more perfect union. This facet of the times we are in ...hasn't gone away. Yet we keep having these post where we are surprised this and that. No ... we are not surprised. What we all are is disconnected, in all aspects of the reality we create at a civilization level, from the consequences of our collective actions - apparently.. This can be easily proven. Well, by this shit above... But it can be proven by the predicament of anthropomorphic -induce CC and the enabled, unabashed denialism ... which really is so detached from objective reality - well, put it this way, that same compos mentis voted a convicted felon to be president. 'Nough said. It can be proven by everything in between. This is also part of the most probable Fermi Paradox explanation, "where is everyone" ( meaning civilizations in the cosmos). Probably every advancing civilization in the universe hits this dilemma eventually. Most fail the test. The rest of the missing ... likely related to the fact that a single light year's worth of physical distance is so vast it too greatly exceeds human capacity to dimensionalize just how far that is - viable worlds are separated by too many 10s to definitely too many thousands of them. Try to imagine traveling at 183,000 miles in one second, for 4.5 years, in perpetuity - you really can't, and that's our nearest solar system neighbor. Civilizations innovate the ability to survive in this seemingly, universally constructed isolation...("agency" tongue-in-cheek), and that innovation then exceeds the background trials and tribulations of the pure biological-Darwinian requirement, -----> resting in relative affluence is unavoidable as Nature, including all life, abide the universal physical Law of Least Action. Such that the Law of Lessening Returns kicks in. Apathy and sloth take over. This creates a nonchalance to morality and virtuosity, too. This enabling to flout advice and act sort of recalcitrant to the objective reality and truth that our grand kids are less likely to survive ( ironically...), than we are, due to ecological breakdowns that apparently have to fuckin' happen before the 90th percentile dipshits admit it... won't be obvious until we all see them dropping dead. Basically ... culminating in a veritable carelessness with dad's species gun scenario. That'd be a cool scene in a sci fi cinema, whence interstellar aliens happen by our solar neighborhood and detect a world with bio-markers... so, they come check it out. What they find makes Shelley's "Ozymandia" the best metaphor to describe.

https://phys.org/news/2026-04-unprecedented-antarctic-dead-winter-decades.html (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01392-x)

33 diurnal change before noon. That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.

There's an interesting techy aspect that Brian and I have monitored over the years having to do with machine/MOS numbers never seemingly able to catch up to the seasonal movement toward heat in springs. This effect doesn't appear to be as such in autumn when going colder. It has to do with MOS numbers being too low on days when the sun is very strong. MOS has a 'memory' so to speak. That memory is Climatology. It's complex though... MEX, for example, has small climate enhancing of the immediate day's values... which growns in weighting out in time. Such that D5 of that string has a ton. That is why when we look at D5 and it may say 80 for high temperature, when the climate on that day is say 60 ... that means you have a signal that must be extreme coming from the contributing model input. Because it is not only 20 points over the climate, the climate is supposed to be weighting the values from the metrically deduced numbers. That is why once in coon's age you get that 96 in April ... the MEX number on that day 5 might have been 20 points over. So MET and MAV being short term, in theory the climate weight is lower ...but it is not zero, either. It's hard to guess how much the MOS for D1 and D2 are being effected by climate weighting, but it could be the reason why these days will tend to be a degree or two colder than what actually takes place. It suspiciously seems like Climate Change might be part of the culprit. The other complication is how much so... I believe the climate in those MOS products are based on 30 year means. But those are not "running averages" ... so if the climate is improving steeply in 30 years and it is not running... and suppose the MOS day's climate weight is based up 27 year old means, then the weighting could be introducing larger error. As such ...I "think" the recent 30 year adjustment went in over the last 5 years...so we're at the earlier end, and we are definitely in a steep CC predicament. That said, the D1 and D2 are at the lower weighted end so makes the crushingly nerdy fetish of Asperger temperature watching like those idiots out there along the train track. It's a 4 line that runs 100 feet from my front door. They set up tripods and film freight trains going by. What the f is up with that! I think it's called 'train spotting' or ... ? who cares I don't care to look it up. I hate the f'n train. It's loud and disruptive. It vibrates the house on minutes after minutes worth of sometimes several times per day. They couple up and decouple half mile long screaching screaming steel on steel ending in something louder than lightning bolt 100 feet away bangs. 1.5 million metric tons of 'em, between 1 and 4 am. They've taken to parking long lines of shipping container cars, double stacked, that are holding garbage - literally garbage! And after they've sat parked under summer sun in 97 F heat ... stink of rotting vomit so vile as to challenge the very endurance of man ... they're doing a swell job at ruining life for myself, my neighbors.. the neighborhood. It's gotta be lowering property values... I mean Jesus H Christ - or lack thereof.. We've complained to the town, who's clearly getting a kick back form CGI ... otherwise we might apply for a Federal injunction of some kind. To me, it doesn't matter if the latter owns the rail. It's should be no different than house that puts on loud music on and disturbs the surrounding peace. That's not allowed!? why should corporate kuntitude be able to dump society's anal content 100 feet from our f'n front doors and walk away. So, along comes these train dweebles to appreciate fuckin' trains? Okay.