Typhoon Tip

Ayer, MA

S est vis 1/2 mi 3.5" 27 f

S est vis 1/2 mi just under 1" 28

In terms of personal druthers? agreed - I can objectively admit to this winters cold and snow. But personally - I know I'm probably in the minority - I can honestly say I did not like it. I did not like the deliveries. I did not like the fact that an extraordinary, historical bomb bumped SE in the magic moments just enough that a comparatively select few got the big goods while we pretended it was historic out side the smaller geographical area. I did not like the fact that there was snow on the ground deep enough that we suspended our disk golf season. I did not like the cold... we don't need that much cold to get that much snow...and we prooobably could argue the cold is why some of these storms shirked for bigger taxes, too... Didn't like the winter. Prefer that when those 70+ers arrive ( assuming they do) next week, by then the modeling/indicators would have collapses in favor of the inevitable seasonal change, and we would in fact not ever see this white shit on the ground until after Halloween.

OH I get it... just pointing out the silliness of it. Truth be told, all that grading BS is is how well did one's dopa get its hits. Who cares ultimately if one gets their rocks off. Everyone has a different number for weather boner inches anyway.

that's funny we're musing over that.. I was just texting with some Met buddies a little while ago how this year really seemed to us to be a "snowy year" Granted, we're not dyed in the cloth snow zealots, but in principle, we just see this year as having had snow on the ground almost always. Two huge storms.. and lost track of all these tweener event/constant reminders. I like the numbers method frankly. If it is 100% of the seasonal norm, that is an A+ tough shit otherwise.

Isn't 93% and A/A- ?

Right, and people are giving this year B-'s and shit for grades.

yeah, especially this one... If I were going to use 2-m temp to reflect where my estimation of the snow retreat was, it would like just like this. It's probably estimating the snow pack in the first place, but relative to that - Notice Watchusett and ORH AP elevations are warmer? that's snow pack inversion with those els poking out.

It's as though it is also estimating the retreat of the snow pack across those days... interesting. It may actually look something like that, as reflective in the 2-m temperature shrinking cold

If anything the 12z AI GFS is even warmer a week from Thursday ... that's 570dm warm sector, well mixed heat...

This whole event is quite warm frontal like. I was thinking it was more symbolic of that yesterday but now it looks like it is an actual WAA/overrunning venting out ahead of a diffused warm transition. Noooormally I'd go above machine guidance when looking at those synoptic params for tomorrow ... Not so sure over a foot of corn snow pack. It'll be an interesting ob. Either way, with unnoticeable light zephyrs but noticeably warmer March sun it's going to sensibly appeal pretty fantastic for spring enthusiasts circa 2:15 in the afternoon.

yeah it'll actually be quite balmy tomorrow with light winds and mid 50s under mostly sunny. That'd be the new warmest day so far

My reality of this goes something like Too cold today Snow later on and night Some nape value tomorrow, but otherwise annoying during a reprehensible pattern that's become quite consistent with this piece of shit month that used to be viable but has become too mangled by CC to be what it used to be

It's almost like there is built in synergistic feed-back now, anywhere outside of direct polar sourced modulation/forcing on Earth. Where ever there is warm look to an outlook, relative to region, ... it seems to become historic more commonly than not. Regardless of where. The aspect ( Meteorologically...) that enhances that prospect for PHX most likely has to do with the perennial flow across N/A, which features a flat ridge over the continental cordillera, tending to nadir as a flat trough exiting the east. PHX, and surrounding of the S/W - which by the way has just registered the warmest winter ever from Canada to Mexico, reside within that flat ridge. That supplies a perpetual positive/constructive resonance potential at all times. It's not major... but, when we are dealing with synergy, the whole product after smaller additive forcing, tends to be larger than amount of the individual addition. You add 1 to 10 ... you get 12 so to speak. In other words, this gives them a bit of an advantage. There may be some urban expansion feed backs as well - I haven't heard/read of any studies that use scientifically discipline in conjunction with mathematics which quantifies how much. Not beyond speculation. It's likely fractionally playing a role but cannot atone for the whole occurrences. Nor does that diminish the significance of the record breaking occurrences, nor the standard elevated mean temperatures - in fact, .. it substantiates "why" that is happening. Particularly when considering how well that fits in with the planet as a whole, where warm events are consummately over performing above leading predictive indicators/methods.