Typhoon Tip

OH I love this product. heh. I've been in my internal monologue for years literally saying the density of the frequency has been ..etc..etc. Weird. It's actually called phase density. Different topic: I find it interesting that it's been biased on the left side like that, and it happens to predate the ENSO by some. I'm wondering if the WWB flux/anomaly quotient is constructively interfering there a bit. In which case, the phasing may actually not reflect as much pure MJO momentum as it does an environmental resonance. I've often stated in the past that the MJO isn't a pattern drive. It's a pattern augmenter. If the wave is in constructive interference the phase diagram balloons ... depending on the basal hemispheric mode/wave numbers at the time the MJO is attempting to emerge out of the Marine continent. If in phase, the dispersion into the mid latitudes is in sync with the Pacific orientation that sends N/A into a NW conveyor. I look at a combination of the Asia circulation mode together with the WPO index outlook bias get a sense of the interference scheme. Since the warm ENSO mode significantly correlates with the +PNA, and the 7-8-1-2 seems to as well, I would call this a harmonic interference. constructive. I've often fantasized about a phase diagram that isn't the scalar wave propagation coherency, but is the constructive vs destructive interference. There are times when a robust wave propagation seems not to correlate so well with the N arc of the Pac --> western N/A. The disconnect may be proportional to c or d.

My guess for the remainder of the geriatric summer is formulated purely out of persistence. No heat. The longer persistence goes on seemingly interminably like this, it naturally just becomes difficult for one to imagine things can actually change. Heh. The atmosphere wouldn't stop troughing the GL/NE region if it were an edict from god. But I've seen this kind of stolen summer from New England antic in seasons of lore, before. Usually what happens is summer attempts to come back in the first half of September. So figure faux fall until then, a time in which we'll still somehow managing to be +.5 above climate averages - so technically above normal. Long about Sept 3 or something, whence solar is starved and irrelevant, we'll put up 10 days of non-synergistic +6s. That way, we can look like the rest of the world's CC predicament, but without ever suffering any consequences. That ending aspect really has been protecting N-E of the Mason Dixie and SE Climate for years. Lol. True or not ... it just seems we're a climate dumpster here.

May be a winter hosting unusual anomaly/extremes around the hemisphere - more so than climo. For one, warm ENSOs are notorious for that, anyway, but as qc_omega intimated, with CC underneath I find it difficult to imagine a better arena for synergistic feedback. Huge changeability that ranges between somewhat below normal to outlandishly above normal. Basically a bigger variance gap than usual, repositioned on the warmer side of climate.

Must be an elevated dry layer amid the ambient sounding

Yeeeah... okay. There's a couple of facets here. I agree with you not to ignore "denialism" in the whole of western industrial society and recent cultural modalities (...largely a result of corruption) to do so. Of course. However, I was talking about certain repeating members of this forum - I have trouble believing their intent is born of mere 'innocence having been misled'. Because the logic has been explained in nothing short of 1+1=2 type certitude, yet won't penetrate? I doubt it - one can tell if one is coming from the blowhards chorus like those your implicating, vs you and I. We are clearly and logically by written material, decipherable as not being of the former ilk/bad social media informatica. Thus, these individuals are either not capable of the intelligentsia, or, they're immoral. As far as an implicit idea of a movement against disinformation? No problem. Unfortunately, it's also going to be a tall task. It's an untenable task. Risking a digression, it's why I think humanity is in its 10 hours. It's a metaphor borrowed from stellar evolution. A large star, perhaps 4+ times the mass of our sun, may burn in the hot end of the main sequence for many millions of years but because it's mass is so large, it's gravity is more intense, so the core temperature/rate of fusion is greatly accelerated. The core of the star starts to fuse iron ... game over. It takes more energy to fuse iron than the fusion of iron gives back to the star, and the core suddenly finds itself without enough thermal pressure to withstand the ... unimaginable power of gravitation crushing down. Core collapse takes place. As it does, it gets to the neutron density threshold and there and then, a bounce at the moment the core is determining a fate as a neutron star, or a stellar mass black hole. In either case, the out going energy of the bounce not claimed by core gravity well, surges outward through the star. When it breaches the surface it is observable as a super nova. It takes typically 10 hours for the shock wave to do so, a time in which the star continues to shines in magnificence and glory ... as though nothing out of the ordinary has taken place, just like it had for the many millions of years. It's as though the star has no idea it's a corpse. Sound familiar.. ? We may be in our 10 hours - keeping in mind, it's a metaphor.

I sense we're incrementally inching closer, year by year, to the 'winter it didn't snow' Up N that's more likely just a shockingly low season total, but ranging to a phatty 0 at LGA and Logan. ORH got 1.5" of glop on January 7th and white pawed their way to more climate denial excuses. Sardonic aside, eventually that does have to happen. It'll be once ...then 5 years goes by, a span that host so-so's and one winter that is phenomenal, as much for snow as it will be enabling. Then, it happens again so soon? huh. Eventually ... they're happening more frequently and viola, "we're not Va Beach" This is a toad in the pan thing -

It had a 'micro bow' on the base reflectivity structure as it passed through NH fwiw - ... probably a cycling micro burster

I don't know why we are expending energy with this denier BS - they're not going to get it. Cows would understand this by now; they are too predisposed in their myopic agenda. They spin around in these tiny little realms of tedious and ultimately meaningless insularity, insulating them from seeing/understand the holistic perspective. That kind of fallacy of approach to reality can only be explained by one or two causes: irreparable stupidity, or, amoral lying. Either way ... life is too short to give them all this time. There's no point in arguing with them. The objective reality is: CC is real, humans are causing it. The amount of that role is causing debate? so what! It doesn't change the fact that the species is at minimum exacerbating (then), which still makes them just as responsible. In either scenario causing or contributing to our demise is just as explicitly culpable. End discussion It kind of reminds me of the Samuel Clemens quip. Paraphrasing: 'never argue with a stupid person. It requires bringing you down to their stupid level where they are masters of the craft'

I'm not so sure that's wrong looking at the overnight ... very light NW drift is ideally moving a high heat content source right at Logan: that being Boston's urban asshole. This was probably going to be a warm urban/cooler subburb deal overnight. HFD there being 65... also ORH AP a 1000 feet above the decoupled slab of false autumn was also 65, somewhat evinces that. Boston being the biggest urban warm pig on the map with a NW to NNW gentle stenchy city fart all night might just have elevated that site anthropomorphically Also, interestingly ... the Harbor is torched. 70 F SSTs. Not sure what this compares to normal but I suspect it is warm?

One thing I wanna do when I have the free time - which I never do - is find the actual geophysically applied science to/and resulting publication(s) regarding the supposed feedbacks between the earth surface and air during the Dust Bowl era. In blunt, simple terms, I always thought that was dubious - but sort of covet that opinion more so until I see how exactly those that claim farming practices/methodology of land management can couple en masse to the extent that it causes an entire continental -scaled consequence. mmm okay. I can understand feedbacks, but that would be in part. I am suspicious of the idea that land management was the primary driver of haboob phenomenon. There are also two distinct aspects that I think folks also conflate - at least in the general discussion that seems to be suggested to me. Dust storms and heat can by mutually exclusively originating. Yes, heat aids in evaporation... so a relationship is quite obviously there. But it is also not required. Example, Gobi desert spring dust storm climo; these events are triggered by the "Mongolian Cyclone" sending strong cold winds. These events are just as bad... significantly impacting air quality and visibility in just the same exact way. I'm preeeetty sure there is no farming practices in the Gobi desert lending to creating a vast heat dome in the late winter and springtime there. Ya think If all that skepticism (and sarcasm!) is true, then that logically urges that whatever pattern synergistically aroused big heat response in 1936 was actually not holistically caused by land-air feedback as a primary mechanism. There likely was feedback modulation going on... Bad land management certainly contributed to the dust side of the discussion. But there may have been resonance in the hemisphere lending to a multi-seasonal 'pattern fractal'; a super-synoptic origin forcing a leitmotif that favored heat and drought, then undermined by bad land management. These decadal fractal in synoptic biases happen throughout history. I really feel like I need to see the wholesale science on the matter to gain an understanding of how much 'improper land management practices led to the dust storm' vs how much of that may have also just been a dry antecedent decadal signal then exacerbating dusty consequence. As far as the heat, as a Meteorologist, that starts over eastern Asia with planetary wave transmitting wave orientation across the Pacific, ultimately favoring(not favoring) a long-wave resonance over North America. All of which is preface to an idea ... that should such a resonance recur during this latter accelerating base-line trend ... I wonder what the extremes would layout like.

Btw, Europe is quickly closing on a JJA warmest ever for a second consecutive year. I'm not sure if that's on whole, or in lesser quadratures but just a-priori on the story-line to date proooobably implicates everywhere? I dunno on that per se. interesting tho

Not directed at you, Don ... so be careful with that trend line. m is not that sloped going back to 1895. If one does the d(m) they come to find that the slope is not linear. It is actually some exponential. y=x raised to some power probably less than 2 granted, but the expose' is that it is "accelerating" ... That is really a dangerous state of affairs. Because that rate of acceleration is, in itself, not deterministically constant. All the archeological climate data shows that the rate of green house fixing attributed to anthropomorphic activity has exceeded the rate of any non-human attributed fixing events, by 100x, since the last ice age - a mere second on the geological clock. That amount of change in that amount of time is unprecedented on any timescales extending back through ancient climates via paleoclimatology. Earth is behind, is what that ominously implicates. The 2023 wholesale planetary surge by nearly a half a deg C seems to evince more of a restoring, supported by observation that post the occurrence, we have yet to observe any correction back to the initial state. That strongly suggest 2023 spring was the correction! As supposition, the trend itself has been accelerating all along; that superlinearity strongly argues effecting a synergistic 'bounce'. And there is no reason to presume the 2023 correction was complete. Math's track record in forecasting how nonlinear feedbacks compound (cloud response, aerosol unmasking rate, ice-albedo timing ... non-Markovian effects on systemic return rates... etc..etc) is worse than its track record on the linear CO2-forcing terms. There are more bounces probably coming ladies and gents.

holy shizboom