Typhoon Tip

yeah yeah, we know -

Man that is an ugly sfc evolution next week from the 12z op GFS. Bring back the 00z please ...

it may be that there are two disparate things going on ... Those models you mention may be over selling the mixing. But the March sun and bigger gusts aspect is real physics. It's just not clear if these models are picking up on that, or if they are just wild for some other reason. The sun's aspect may not account for the amount of overturning in the models, in other words.

Not trying to sell Kevin's roof ending up on Boston Common, but ... keep in mind, the March sun is very powerful compared to even Feb, and getting stronger by non-negligible %'s per day as we approach the Equinox. The boundary layer will bump ... Whether this is 'why' BUFKIT may appear so well-mixed or not, there is an environmental argument that convective overturning and BL expansion being proficient - just because it may be an annoyingly cold day, doesn't mean these mechanics are not in play. This is just an added aspect to concern. It's not the same CAA as it is on Jan 6 when the sun is shining from a cool azimuth.

UKMET looks a little better for warmth. Aligns that 2.5 day static look next week with the front stalled along the St Law., giving more wiggle room.

mm looks like 39mph gusts with one or two lucky 50 type stuff

Hard to feel very confident about a warm interlude in the mid range out there when the supposed better performing guidance types keep sending bulbs of +PP eastward N of a boundary that only has about 75 miles of wiggle run stretching between BUF-BOS. Climo in March? that ends up south. we'll see Looks like a classic set up for 70s that actually go onto verifying as 45ers while it's 70 in S of Newark NJ

https://phys.org/news/2025-03-global-sea-ice-february-world.html

nice ribbon echo in there

Today's melt appears more effective than any yet for the snow pack around here. It's visibly retreating by the hour. We're up to 55 and the DP's 47 let's do this

based on ?

Equinox is on the 20th this year so 2 weeks.1 ... I don't know why I sense this but it feels like the extremely low probability decent April's en route

Clocks ahead in 4 days. At least the models will be too late in the day to matter anymore. Heh, might be the best thing for the lot of us ...

I bet also these cold shots over the next week end up busting too cold - by how much, notwithstanding. We've shut off the local hemisphere's loading mechanism for cold with the +EPO, and with the solar min behind us, along with the rising solar transition over continent, this has typical machine lagging written all over it. I bet on Friday it's more like mid 40s at 3pm. METs actually 41 to 42 at HFD, FIT and ASH so ... probably being too finicky but for some reason I have this crushing nerdiness about temp recoveries in the season of spring.

it'll arrive later ... you'll get plenty of thaw time tonight and probably tomorrow when the dry slot warm sliver sends everyone to 63 ahead of the lagging CAA