Typhoon Tip

Yeah, I’m not talking about the run itself. I’m just what my thoughts are on that period.

I’d call it an average winter regression I also suspect it’ll probably be not as amplified as that too. Also probably something like five days that sort of fades… That’s going by the indices, but deamplifying some partial has both an established precedence in mid and long range models, as well as fitting the climate of sun getting hotter. But yeah, folks are looking for a last hurrah I would look at that five day window.

+That bold statement of yours is the very reason the world should be very afraid. It still does not resonate enough with people that enormity of raising an entire planetary system, air, sea and air-sea coupled, unilaterally, by a whole degree C, over span of time that is virtually instant in geological scales - but frankly, disturbingly fast even for the single life span of a human being. If that can happen without warning and those zero extrapolated expectation, ... good luck

An indirect way to tell that your above normal temperatures might be these MOS products. It seems the MAV is whack? it's got KBDL-FIT-ASH all in 25-ish for a low tonight. With 45 to 50 F diurnals tomorrow. That seems a little off

It's that window in the indices there... pretty sweet looking solution.

Melt and mud season... Agreed. We lost something like 6" since yesterday just eye-balling. It'd say we have about 7 of granular corn snow left. It's possible we've eradicated enough snow in the next 48 hours to allow Tuesday to not be held down from that factor.

If there's a SSW or S wind flow off the Bite waters there's going to be cooling modulation, however the model's likely too cold to begin with... It's like raise that 7 to 10 F.

Hard to say on that ... Will seems to think we get 10 days of favorable looks out this post Ides pattern but I'm not as confident. Could be. It seems this week's about getting rid of the snow pack ( seasonal recession)... Then yeah, we could certainly re-brick the top soil for a gif. I think we're good for at least that much before truly escaping. But without the geographic pan-dimensional cryosphere helping to continue the enabling party, the sun will begin to both modulate the pattern pretty fast going forward, as well as mangle the days and bust most guidance the standard 2 or 3 ticks too cold as we approach and exceed the Equinox. The early April bowling season is in place every year so that's separate. But the generalized pattern foot is entering higher variability and lesser dependency due to seasonal forcing. But, this +PNA aspect in the index prognostics is not 10 days long. It's a 3 day quiet and quick amplitude. Even the L/W cinema in the guidance is rotating that axis through rather quickly. I'm actually already seeing signatures of rapider recovery back to a flat -PNAP structure out there post the 20th. That's been the tenor of the last 20 years - lessening dependability of index outlooks. Lessening time spans of pattern residence. It's not just the modeling stochastics. The indexes themselves, which are in theory based upon the larger super synoptic mass field and thus should modulate slower than the dailies, seem to be modulating faster than that theory. I could be the technology itself, sort of too much of a good thing without being enough of a good thing... so they create their own error. Or, it's something with CC that makes things more top heavy (latitude) so we're rolling Rossby signature faster. It's an interesting study. But that also means the +PNA --> +PNAP expression could host an event in that 15-19th period, and just not be very well represented ( at this time) in the standard version. I'm aware the AI's are less bashful there. Possible. That's the way these next two weeks look to me as of Sunday morning over -caffeinating

Yeah some perhaps positive feedback there but ... not sure it's enough to offset a white cocained earth. ha... It's a micro feedback science thing, right. anyway, I'm not sure if we don't pancake too. may have to go through an hour or so of that while we cycle through the first boundary layer rotation. yeah but wow, it feels like pithier warmth ... Sun's out here in the last moments so we'll see if the ceiling holds. It's 53/49.

Definitive back edge is now more evident on higher res vis loop moving at CC compressed hyper velocity ... yikes (lol). Skies will probably go partly sunny with mostly sunny moments over the next hours, E of the Berkshires. Over the western Hills ... Greens and Whites likely to deal with cap b.s. We're inverted, but there are scud strata filaments racing between the mid and upper level band and the inversion, so there's definitely a breeze off the deck. This will be the end of the inversion today as when the sun goes to work ( and it's quite strong now), the two will finally say goodbye to that nasty nasty high pressure/BD's lingering static clinging cold along the coastal plain. Soundings would allow 60s easily, but with the snow pack there's probably a lot of variability ... Kind of like a hockey stadium, with 40 over the melting plains, and 60 walking down towns.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/07/climate/warmest-winter-us-east-versus-west

Muah hahahahahaaaaa

A long time ago there was a poster form NWS ... his name was Ekster He told me that the NAM has winter algorithms and that they were "not yet switched to warm season" once when we were looking at the warm early spring possibility. I wonder if that's still true. Granted we have a snow pack but ... we'll probably be mixing better tomorrow whence we'll be mad melting. I think it's fascinating if people let it ... to test how warmth performs running up over this glacier. lol

It is however precarious ... any time you have polar air amassing into Ontario, with > sfc pressure than what is in our area/SE ... that's teetering with correcting that boundary S. But the model run itself was not "lost of Tuesday's warmth"

This is 21z Tues afternoon on the NAM I'm not seeing a raging argument here for a warm failure on that day ( relative to climo and previous ideas -)