Typhoon Tip

It's almost like there is built in synergistic feed-back now, anywhere outside of direct polar sourced modulation/forcing on Earth. Where ever there is warm look to an outlook, relative to region, ... it seems to become historic more commonly than not. Regardless of where. The aspect ( Meteorologically...) that enhances that prospect for PHX most likely has to do with the perennial flow across N/A, which features a flat ridge over the continental cordillera, tending to nadir as a flat trough exiting the east. PHX, and surrounding of the S/W - which by the way has just registered the warmest winter ever from Canada to Mexico, reside within that flat ridge. That supplies a perpetual positive/constructive resonance potential at all times. It's not major... but, when we are dealing with synergy, the whole product after smaller additive forcing, tends to be larger than amount of the individual addition. You add 1 to 10 ... you get 12 so to speak. In other words, this gives them a bit of an advantage. There may be some urban expansion feed backs as well - I haven't heard/read of any studies that use scientifically discipline in conjunction with mathematics which quantifies how much. Not beyond speculation. It's likely fractionally playing a role but cannot atone for the whole occurrences. Nor does that diminish the significance of the record breaking occurrences, nor the standard elevated mean temperatures - in fact, .. it substantiates "why" that is happening. Particularly when considering how well that fits in with the planet as a whole, where warm events are consummately over performing above leading predictive indicators/methods.

It's March ... go wonder.

Two aspects going on at the same time. One, the operational models are physically doing everything shy of violating physical laws to shirk the overall warm pattern (attempting to do so without notice too. lol). Two, the ensemble smoothed means are showing that the warm pattern is transient. It seems the operational/tradition models ( not AIs) are ending up with looks that are sort of rushing to the latter. There might also be some environmental feed backs going on that I wonder if the AIs actuallly handle. Not sure.. speculation. Like, 10-20" of ambient geographic cryosphere. The sun needs to be unabated, because under clouds with that at the bottom might be a heat sink. Probably have to take the dailies one at a time and not forecast with much confidence beyond 72 hours. I wouldn't. Keep it at a principle level and allow for bigger errors. This is kind of what we discussed all along - well, I discussed... Not going for more than melt and mud with any confidence. I realize the AI versions show no shame but they are also not lasting very long, either. The 00z GEFs extended index looks similar to March 1993

It's mostly an overrunning type scenario.. so don't look for coastal machinery per se.

That's gotta chance at being a legit moderate impact winter storm if this sets up like this (GFS) on Friday

I don't know if it's just the Euro being like the GFS in early March where it does a seasonal roll-back beyond D7 .. 10, but that extended may as well be Feb 2nd

Yeah... can't please everyone. My parents live in Kalamazoo Mi, which is about as far W as one can go in the E time zone. By the time the sun sets, and then crawls along the horizon the way it does in summer ..they're like 10:15 at night when the highest trees still have a slight orange roman sun on them. Meanwhile, by 9:20 here we're done and gone. At the other end of the day... we're getting light at 4:50 am, yet they're still steeped in inky black. I don't personally need daylight waking me up at 5am at any time of the year... though some people do and it helps them for their life styles and requirements. Then there's school and children considerations... but that seems to be less and less logistical because this complicating world no longer one-sizes all kids required times and herds. There's just no way to suit everybody. It gets light here at 7am in the winter, but it's 8 there... At least they have at least some daylight left at 5 in the winter, though.

It's like symbolically ( perhaps even philosophically ...) this event is a warm front passage. Look at these FOUS sounding numbers at Logan for Wednesday afternoon 36016989370 05106 251211 43000300 42059989570 05307 182808 45010300 48004903707 -4908 223211 39000200 54000861937 -3712 252705 44040401 60000811632 -0113 262213 46060501 Prior to dawn on Wednesday, that's like snowing where I am, freezing rain/IP in a band between Rt 2/Pike, and cold rain, all yielding to explosive temperature rises immediately after the sun comes up. Those thermal profiles nearing 0z Thursday suggests it was over 60F early in that afternoon over thoroughfares and parking lots. Probably not over snow packed fields .. buuut, there'll be residual moisture being baked by March sun at higher mixing temperature - that's going to have DPs probably in the 40s with Ts say 57. Likely the greatest melt day yet in this slowly unfurling spring.

vroom sarcasm. It's alright. there's no vocal inflection in here

oh yeah ... clocks go ahead an hour this Sunday. Finally getting models in the middle of the night - thank god

Fast moving TX Panhandle to Detroit cutters seem like an option in that baseline pattern, too.

It's poor timing on the season, really This hemispheric super synoptic layout/behavior could have very well set up in Dec or Jan or early in Feb, but instead by happenstance does so in March, when the climate clock and solar recovery are not only ticking... but, time seems like it is speeding up to Old Man Winter. Just sayn' This pattern doesn't scream "end" to me though - all three major ens systems hitting this hard. Overnight EPS for 300 hours PV on our side of the hemisphere with -2 SD anomalies anchoring over the Canadian archipelago means that cold is aplenty. Whether it delivers in the right times and spaces to be involved in events at our latitude? It won't be because winter has intrinsically ended, it means being bent over and sore butted by chance ... those are different predicaments to suffer. LOL. Either can certainly happen in March. My suggestion is just to keep your "expectations" sufficiently lubed at all times such that when chance invades your dignity it won't be as painful. I will say though .. part of keeping expectations in check, notice that this PV is underpinned by modest +anomalies? Those anomalies are actually "potentially" much higher, but the PV being of greater magnitude is compressing the heights to the point where it masks that potential. But that potential is going somewhere and it is converted into velocity (U component) of the westerlies... consequentially being higher than normal. Speed isn't an auto 86er on chances... but it does cause needle threading this, as well as sheer reductions in amplitude that.

'nough said,

heh..yeah, different discussion.

Heh who knows about after the 15th that’s beyond the end of 360 hours of modeling; it is complete speculation with extremely low odds. I was just speaking in deference to this single model run … People that are claiming that this is cooling things back off again within those frames probably had trouble letting go of the tooth fairy in their youth. I don’t know.