Typhoon Tip

NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too

It's almost like the GFS is dropping the W into a -EPO tendency in the first week, and then walking away Meanwhile, the index interpretation is offers uncertainy. That N. Pac thing from late Novie through Dec is back in its haunt, but it's not clear whether it will mean same or similar or somehow idiosyncratically different over the eastern N/A continent. This looks like a cold stormy pattern at a glance but that ridge up there is sort of in the hybrid WPO/EPO space which complicates matters, particularly if it is resonant and not moving.

Under the radar aspect about that warm up in January. I argue it was not "thermodynamic" in character - in other words, dry air warm up. It's not the same beast as other. The measly 3" of white stone snow pack was incredibly resistant. We really only went down to bare ground in this part of the interior ... not until the last day or two of that span. Otherwise, a lot of 46 F highs over that apparently impervious to melt. It matters meteorologically because warmth in the atmosphere is both kinetic and also water vapor. But a dryer air mass will withstand just temperature more so than when it is accompanied by a DP that is also above freezing.

Here ya go .... this oughta chap some asses in here https://phys.org/news/2026-02-january-hottest-cold-snap-eu.html

Not sure anyone's invalidated this winter... ? that's the spontaneous crowd physical digression of the hour I guess. LOL No...this seemed to get going when Scott and I made the factual observation of the dearth of coastal storm types this winter. That's just reality. There is no amount of virtual space on the web whereby people can hide and recreationally think reality is something else, that will change what reality really was ( you should be laughing at this point - ) The reasons why for that? there's worthwhile scientifically -based exploration there. Some may not be able to handle what that is? Seems that way ...

Not a bad point here. It's not a zero-sum gain. We threaded the needle in a sense during that Jan 25th event. Perhaps sort of skewing that toward being less obvious, it was just so ginormous. One might not be inclined to think of that system thatt way when there were ongoing multi-regional scaled simultaneous impacts. It's like yeah, it threaded the needle but the needle's eye was size of a galaxy. ha! Anyway, fast flow in and of itself doesn't mean no storms. It's more of timing, and also a spatially constraining factor. There can be fast moving bombs, just less likely observed. There can be big sprawling events, as Jan 25 demoed rather nicely... but over the long haul, we're more likely to observe narrower corridor impact ... if intense, briefer. The compression can damp out events ... but we shouldn't think of the fast flow that happens in compression as really being the cause.

I wasn't talking about you, personally bro - Just a comment about the audience. And it is factually true... because the majority of this social media's return/habitual contributors and players and pastimers both have not suffered and succeeded dynamics, but also in turn don't really present much evidence that there's been supplements.

Check-out motives are leaning, man... Another ad nauseum aspects folks hide their heads in a brown paper sack like a cat trying to evade a 5 year-old tail puller is that the sun is now formally ended winter. It's turned up the inflection out of the dish pan wattage and we are in the transition season - today being the first full day. It doesn't mean much in the dailies ... obviously big winter events can transpire into May in this piece of shit spring geography ... but, excluding those rarer returns, there is also a futility to looking at a winter event on guidance - for me anyway - that I cannot escape going forward. Plus... winter and snow is not everyone's bag. In here, if you voice visions of joy outside those confines ( and it is a prison of perception by the fuckin way ) it can be so liberating. LOL no but I have a lot of outdoor stuff I enjoy too much. That combined with the fact that it is really undeniable that the verification routinely falls short of this "model cinema" pastime/investing, patience wears thin by now. And, right at the time the sun is noticeably brighter and hotter. heh -

Maybe. Not much evidence folks acknowledge or use it, tho, to necessarily constrain their "ebullient" response to modeling outlooks. Seems like ignoring an aspects because one is sick of hearing something isn't very mentally responsible. But I also suspect there's an aptitude gap there, too.

This was exactly what I was thinking this morning when looking at this ... 5 weeks of predominantly +PNA ( with oscillation no less, a typically favorable behavior). Yet, jack shit zilch squat response in specifically that. I know folks either don't understand this, or are sick of hearing it ... but, the over-arcing -AO that took place nearly collocated in time produced a velocity anomaly. This is expressed in two ways ...well three. 1, the compression/intense planetary gradient immediately generates a high basal wind flow. 2, because of that ( lengthening U component in the Navier Strokes-it ) the wave function responds by speeding up the S/W wave speeds. 3, the patterns are "idiosyncratically unstable", a bit more complex.. Those are all indirect/non-lineary negative interference constraints .. Everything else on your list were the constructively favored. I fully believe this has porked organized cyclogen from materializing out of the occasional hyper-bomb fantasia of the modeling cinema per the course.

Wow.. GFS' starting to look like Feb 2020 ...

Yeah, I actually don't have a problem with it. Fits the general modal changes that are increasingly in conflict with the idea of placing amplitude in the MA to NE. There can still be aspects rippling through the field, so not intending to 'whiff' per se... just that it's within the realm of possibility with a strong -d(PNAP) in the background.

Speaking of big picture ... the big picture is trying to see-saw the pattern into a -PNAP structure. Whilst some of these prior runs were also driving a trough through the eastern rising heights of that -d(PNA) ? that's a red flag, and probably why the operational GFS is pulling the rug on that event as a no show. I should have seen this myself sooner but heh, I'm seeing it now. It may or may not 86 the idea altogether, but I wouldn't go more than middling with all that in mind. I think those eye-candy Euro runs from the other day are less able to verify given the large scale is negatively interfering. This is the mirror equivalency to ending a heat wave on Aug 10 after a hot summer, and the models looking tepid out in time. The warm enthusiasts are arguing that the back isn't broken this and that... while cool enthusiasts are overselling the significance of it... rinse repeat.

Go ahead and ruin their d-drip, then that's what they're after. They think they're manipulating you, programming you to say something that will allay their fears and dread. You need to tell them, "you will be afraid, and dread, and like it!" Then, let the actual AN highs be what they may. Haha. Seriously though, a large part of this is the physical tactility of it anyway. If we get to 47 and the wind is light and sky blue with sun now strong enough to cause the air to shimmer, you'll have dudes with there arms out of their pickup truck windows and people out for runs in shorts and a tee-shirt. The acclimation is pretty pressed on the cold side so nape days are gonna feel even warmer ... magnifying the winter enthusiast's fears and dread just as much as if it were 60, anyway. So go with fun killer - you'll score. lol

If it's a real event, it's in a marginal atmosphere. About 15 or so years ago ... I began noticing that our "flop direction" is more wet than it used to be. We seemed to more and more so need a direct cold supply into/as a prerequisite, or systems tended to rain will less blue snow types ( winter). It's kind of dilemma, because if we do have the direct cold sourcing, the N/stream is active ...but the catch 22 there is that the flow is sped up and compressing, which is a canvas negative interference. I've been wondering since these models recently began to pull the N/stream away, if we might see this and there it is... The event profiles are going back to more marginal temperature. We snap back to a reality that we've been enabled for the past several months ... not to face. Also, this snow pack - at least around here ... - does not contain a huge load of water content. It's fluffy yet still since the bigger event on Jan 26. If we get a 40 F raining coastal followed by +2 850 mb during transition season solar irradiance on d-slope backside flow, we will be bear ground probably faster the some might think. Cross that bridge I guess... The GEFs aren't yet interested and keep thing progressive and weak through that period. It's coming from midland strength southern streamer coming through the SW. It's actually similar to what led the big even on Jan 26, only this time ...no N/stream. But it may not be coming from a very densely sampled atmosphere. Lot to consider -