Typhoon Tip

this is still going to result in a coastal storm this is going back to that middling idea I was talking about earlier without the southern Stream. It’s could still be impressive though.

what’s interesting is altho it’s trying to bipass the N component is stronger/deeper over the plains

this gfs cycle may not be as dramatic

was just reminiscing. on jan 4, 2015 we were facing jack shit in guidance. not sure if the tele's were quite even lit up yet. abysmality ruled the days and bruised up red-headed step children...

i actually wanted to start a long lead 'experiment outlook' thread, that same material i began discussing back on page 30 something of this thread. sometime between xmass and ny... i've been hightlighting 8/9/10/11 several times ever since since, this thread's actually been pretty good at coverage so ... typically, unless it's a thread where that intent and purpose is explicitly that above, I don't typically start a threat-specific date until D7 at that earliest. we're sort of on that boundary - yeah... but i'd like a better bite by the eps mean frankly. and have a chance to analyze it. i suspect we're on the verge of getting that. we'll see. it's a damn big beacon of a signal though

just posted the member position at 168 hours

huge step from the gefs ... not ideal yet, but considering the last three cycles in consecutive order, this gets interesting

how about this beaut is just unique and has never happened before - so there's no way to know what horrors it may have in store .. muah hahahahahaha

negligible comparison... analog loading is roughly 4%

i get it ... i didn't mean to be declarative even tough i typed it like an dink. early jan 1978; now that was a miller A. capturing from an n-stream just seems to pollute the miller A model to me. interesting. i like miller D frankly for phasing

i think there was a storm in the early 1960s that wound up a 960 low and there was thundersnow with 70 mph wind gust - Jerry or Will might know

yeah...perhaps the scalar of the model is doing that at 925 but a-priori interpretation of that sucker in totality ...that would never do that at 925 - sorry. if that approaches get captured and has 516 dam height well closing off a drill bit over ri, the entire region is chalk dust pulverized crystals in 0 visibility, period

this is where the receding NAO becomes an index modal/archembaultian restoring storm.

ah ..gotcha... well, yeah... still, relative to parametric layout/synoptics, that's probably circumstantially the best location for "the punisher blizzard of 2025" - ironically

seriously ...this is tucked [ enter head scratch emoji ] either way ..that's situated position-wise and relative to all available parametrics for maximizing impact that is the b -word incarnate