Typhoon Tip

Intitially? Not for the same sort of physical causes ... which you intimated. Isentropic snow events tend to be more uniform in character. They are caused by general flow up an elevated frontal slope... Cold in the low levels, with an arriving warmer, potentially psuedo-adiabatic unstable air mass then forced up over the front; eventually through it's unstable altitude/pressure level it starts rising and precipitating... etc. That tends to be more linearly distribute action, such that you get a general rad display... Those meso bands you are thinking of, like that 2020 Dec hyper version, are elevated convergence axis formed from differential mid tropospheric jets moving past and air moving preferentially toward the region of best synoptic forcing to rise over where that is happening. Lots of pricey physical math later, then crossing that up with the aspects above, you can get huge results. In this sense... yeah ... if the latter low does get more mechanically coherent, then some meso banding could set up associated with that. There will be differential jet advection going on associated with that so it could. Just about all defined low pressures have meso structures... You can see them here on this 12z GFS regarding the later big dawg blizzard it has for the 31st

hm... man, relative to ambient surface pressure ( super synoptic foot at the time of this...) these sub 990mb members oblonging the spread back west on the GEFs are an impressive implication ... these are new as of this morning... 06z had more than 00z, but we're adding to I think there's gotta be an upper limit to how much a coastal can take over in terms of lasting/impact. The totality of the backgroung synopsis that all this is embedded in is still quite fast. We could be looking at a regional scoped isentropic thump followed by a 4-6 hour Nor'easter snows and wind into eastern sections.

wtf... I was just describing the differences between the lead isentropic snow not having that, to Wxsniss, and how the 2nd low in some of the guidance was in wait of the the Q-G forcing arriving later - can it be in time to catch that before it leaves, concept. Then is shows up ...kind of.

It's the super computer halting to recompute, utilizing the doctoring/fix by the model operators. ( )

Of course ... ( haha ) come to think about it that's all based upon greed, anyway. LOL I mean, Jebus. The isentropic snows alone are fairly high probability for a successful forecast and we're talking a major snow event from that, already.

I'm thinking that'll get more ironed out by the near terms, like <--48 hours... There is a ton of UVM associated with the initial ...stunningly powerful isentropic explosion moving overhead with that deep south source forced over this artic dome we're about to slab into place. And the models are developing a low pressure underneath all the rising motion as they should. But there's not a ton of actual Q-G forcing ( diffiuence mechanical/synoptic lift) so we end up with the weak low.... The problem is transitioning from that to then actually having Q-G forcing them moving into the region...It's sort of overlapping the isentropic lift region moving off... verrrrrry complex in there as the situation relays from being one mechanism, to a different kind associated with cyclogen. Timing being key ... lending to having enough for the 2nd. The problem with the latter is that cyclogen needs the dynamics ( moisture and instability), which the leading stuff is escaping with the food, seaward ... kind of serving a plate not sufficient enough to feed the second circumstance. However, as we get closer, these two might overlap yet more... ie, consolidate... ? questions that may be better answered in the 48 hour window. How much or in time.. The more the consolidation the bigger the 2nd low. Hell ... even 25% doesn't reduce the lead but will add a ton to the 2nd.

heh... I know your kidding but, both those are a reflection of what I am seeing in the moods and possible reasons for the moods, going on in the people around me? yet you've made them about me. HAHAHA.

definitely at least an homage to a CCB stinger upon exit. Granted it's a honey bee compared to a bald faced hornet's jabber but it's there nonetheless. gosh for winter weather goobers we are sitting in a fun time. relish in this folks... it's been years, YEARS, since we could be sitting at 90 hour before a major, with 12 model cycles of possible upshot solutions to dose our dopa drips hahaha

It seems ( to me ) that we're in 'looking for what can go wrong' mode, which is what happens when we are pretty much at the ceiling of the given event's emergence in the guidance. It appears we are getting pretty consistent mean between 11 and 14" out of all this stuff, and so it's negotiating details to add a couple or take a couple away. We keep coming back to that range

I'm with Brian on that ... I wasn't or hadn't had a chance rather to look at those specific mid level mechanisms but if we're SE of a 700 mb closed circulation envelopes, then even if we do get a coastal going like that 990mb ( which is just getting respectable actually - ) there will be vestiges and interference preventing impacts from that latter.. Course, we could lose some of that in future guidance ... just speaking to what we see at this time. Also, not to be contrary to the first point, still ...we don't need to ton of support above 700 mb to generate CCB snow...that's kind of wild card there. I think Will might have just hinted at this but if there's a growth region subtended below the 700 where there is a generating 850 to 925 E anomaly/moisture insert... there can be some accumulating snow production falling in that shallower layer.

There's definitely something more than mere hints at this converting to a coastal ... kind of a race as the whole of it is alleviating the isentropic wall. when that starts to attenuate, there's still a bit of uncertainty ( in my mind) as to the coherence of a actual low with CCB genesis... I'm sure you're aware of this and weren't intending to go into the granularity of those ending innings of this system, but even this ICON, which appeared to be on whole moving faster, still manages to put a 4 to 6 hour CCB head into eastern regions. It's not clearly like that in all guidance, though they've all suggested so at one time or the other.

mm, I see that as increasing the depth of the DGZ while also suppressing it S... by small measures in each facet - I'm not talking about a wholesale correction here. But it's heavier snow resulting along a narrower axis somewhat S of ..whatever it was before. but we're just musing theoretic here based on the one model run

Me too I think we've all had a run-in with that perfect someone now escaped over their rear horizon. ... perhaps never truly forgotten. The what-might-have-been if were not for the saboteur within. They contrive these torpedo designes to sink the relationship, manifesting all these frustrating plausibility's that we have to consider or else we're dismissive - see how they trap you? But, these implosion fears, they're far less likely true. So it's all but impossible trying to give them respect. Relationship, over. Brilliant ghosts. These people have fear of intimacy with this storm! HAHAHA

haha. well, if the shoe fits -

It's a common psycho-babble defense mechanism. For some ... being in a good state actually causes them discomfort - so they manifest to appease that.