Typhoon Tip

1045 mb high against a 975 mb low is a bit stronger in CAA gusts than 40 mph.. .. heh. Just sayin' that's a damaging CAA event there. Probably b.s. tho

I was looking at these indices this morning... Before anyone ( or the straw man ) goes and says something dim witted like 'see what the indices did for us, today', just be made aware that the indices ferreted out any kind of storm event on the 1st, at all. As a primer, these indexes don't guarantee one's back yard is full and their dopa circuitry triggered. But they do elucidate the periods of time where one should be looking. Better than not having any means at all... Having said that, the indices don't look particularly good. But they don't look absolutely abysmal for winter enthusiasts, either. The basic spread looks like alleviating neutral AO, -PNA, +EPO, -NAO by the 15th. If it were not for the -NAO aspect, which is also fairly elaborately illustrated in all the ensembles in their spatial representation of the hemispheric scaled synopsis at mid month, I would be buckin' for an early spring. Really early! I don't trust any warm signal post 2000 era of hockey stick climate bursting to actually fall short if given any excuse to stand up tall. But... thankfully for winter enthusiasm, the -NAO ( which is a fine complementary phase state for -1 SD PNA btw ), that imparts a different play ground. I would think overrunning circumstances. I don't like the coastals in the guidance, tho. I suggest most of those fail. Or, if one succeeds, it likely to be a NJ model type narrow corridor system. Two caveats, 1 ... NAOs, even in the ensembles, routinely present certain challenges to prediction at extended leads. The amplitude, or even existence, both. It could be that it all redistributes to a -EPO. I've seen -NAO failures/reposition to Alaska a couple of times this year as a matter of fact. So we'll see. The 2nd caveat is suppression...if the -NAO goes ahead and materializes with that -PNA underneath, the flow could very easily torpedo with velocity and all that - it's not exactly something we haven't felt jammed up bums since CC rape began many "moons" ago.

yeah, that's the only point I was trying to make... I think it's useful because there seems to be some debate about the cold aspect this year? heh, I don't ultimately care that much just sayn'

Here's the 1980-2010 for shits n gigs

Okay... well, relative to that product scope, then. I still suggest the mid latitude are colder in January than December.

yeah, I could see that too - kind of like a 'glorified' arctic front.

Destiny prove me wrong and so be it, Friday is just an intense arctic boundary - probably one that also attenuates a little in guidance as the week goes forward.

Just imho, but any below normal month in this era+ is quite an achievement. There's probably a relativity value, like a monthly RONI for atmospheric departures, where a -1 month in 2026 becomes a greater significance compared to doing that in 1986 A more here and now subject, I find this interesting from NASA for December. I wonder what January will work out to. I'm guessing it will be more negative in the mid latitudes ... just by arithmetic from the Climate Analyzer folks. Their on-going monitoring has a whopper warm arctic domain, while the N.H. et al has sunk some... so in terms of anomaly distribution that only leaves the sub-arctic regions to be driving that downward trend.

You know ..philosophically, all luck is, is just not knowing why things occurred. If we look at a system, and assume all inputs into that system, then ... "air apparent" ( puns always on purpose to annoy - ) something unexpected occurs, we tend to call that luck - something unpredictable must have been introduced that was not a part of those inputs. SO, it begs the question ... if one was able to predict, thus reduce the unpredictable quotient to zero, does that remove luck? It seems the answer to this question is rather academic - there is no luck. There is just knowing, or not knowing. So the term luck is really just a semantic dance around the notion that we are limited in our outlooks - limited by the fact that we are not clever enough to predict all inputs into the system. This is why I wonder if Quantum Mechanics, which deals ultimately in probabilities of location in time and space, ... in fact, all probabilities, is just really a limitation of human perception -

It’s because the storm/cyclone, despite being deep in guidance is never fully coupled to the synoptic forcing … in the guidance. The modeled convective “theft” is lame, and not actually developed by synoptic q-g forcing so as it climbs latitudes and the convection begins to wane … it’s weakening. You see that on the cold side of the circulation, en route to the NW Atl, it looks like it fails to really generate much QPF on the west side of the cyclonic envelope - it’s kind of like an imposter low

Yeah it's a matter of when in either case. The trouble with February downward breaks is that by the time it matters, the sun/seasonality is attempting to make it matter less. I guess cross that bridge... In this case, the exertion of a -AO has been in place prior to any notable temperature intrusion, so this suggests it is bottom up. This also hearkens back to an argument I've made in the past, that if you are in a season plagued by a preponderance of the -AO state, the advent of a SSW means less because it's eventual modulation is absorbed into the preexisting state. But that's a deeper aspect. .... it's going to be difficult separating causalities if the AO continues to be so weighted. So I believe the AO is separate phenomenon endemic to this season ... record breaking domain temperatures associated with this up there. It's offloaded so much mass that it is actually driving the NH totals down, while leaving the arctic elevated. Mind you, an elevated state that can still store meat indefinitely ... but it's an upside down hemisphere prior to any SSW even being involved. So I've looked at it and to me, there's more suggestion that this is bottom-->up

I love it! keep it comin' Yeah, so, you know all this, but for the general audience. Feb 9th is the closer approximation time 45th parallel exits of the solar minimum. About the 8th at 42... It's an interesting aspect of celestial mechanics that these time windows do not correspond with the seasonal calendar. These human inventions handed down from antiquity are actually irrelevant to astro-dynamics. The first day of spring in terms of planetary orbital mechanics should be on or about the date the sun switches from nadir to gaining. The first day of summer should be on or very near May 8th... Autumn should begin on August 9th or so and so on. Winter is November 8th. Thing is, the year is split up in to 91.25 days per temporal quarter. That makes up 365 days total. However, there are some numerical idiosyncrasies baked in that make it not exactly 91.25 days per max vs min, vs the two transition solar seasons. For one, the orbit of the Earth around the Sun is not a perfect circle. The planets spends slightly more time in summer max than we do in winter min ... because it is closer in its pass to the sun in the winter. Such that by a small amount the orbital velocity is faster than the summer. So the solar max is actually about a couple of days longer on each end... I think the solar max actually begins around May 4th or 5th... then running out to August 10 or 11. But for simplicity, we just figure a roughly 91 and change days goes into each quarter. So Nov 8 to February 9 to May 10 to August 11 then reset at Nov 8. When we pass through these virtual boundaries in space, you don't really notice much difference at all. But if one looks around they may detect. Example, as others are noticing, we are already sensing some warm direct sun exposure sensation just 41 days past the Solstice now. But, that sensation will be noticeably stronger by the 15th of February. That's sort of how these boundaries are blurred as they pass. I have ruminated in the past how hopping in your car at the end of a work day having parked it in the sun, the interior is noticeably warmer from solar bake on or about February 10, noticeably more so than February 1. There are some specialized physical settings where these transitions may evince. Also, snow packs facing the sun will start to shard appearance no matter what the ambient temperature is by February 15. That's the intensifying solar radiation heating darker embedded particles and then the melt back through. Micro effects.

I did catch the indices before the power went out… yes, I could do it from my phone too, but I just prefer not to cause this interface sucks for weather charting Anyway… It looks like there’s one last signal on this current PNA cycle that would be around the sixth seventh and eighth. But like this last one, the models are having trouble really grabbing a hold of a system in that period there’s been hints at it – where have we seen that before? This current one that we’re missing tomorrow that hinted for a while and then suddenly burst onto the stage at five or six days ahead, but then we watched as inch by inch lost to us south. I’m just not sure we’re not gonna run into the same issues with that thing going on towards that end of that first week. Beyond that it looks like we have a tendency for higher latitude blocking, and that’s really almost entirely negative AO driven. The EPO is actually not that negative during that period and the north Atlantic isolation is unclear with occasional pulsations of the models that don’t have continuity. I think what’s happening is that the Arctic oscillation is very negative and it’s overlapping these other domain spaces, but nevertheless, we’ve clearly established a conveyor into North American continent. My experience over the decades is that once you establish these connective conveyors they tend to last. So at a sort of conceptual level were left with a cold mid latitude continent with the near neutral PNA as we head into mid February Yeah, that’s not exactly storm unfriendly but good luck with deterministic success probably a lot of storm maturation occurring at less than four day prediction windows

0ZGFS operational is pretty epic with a couple of different plume cycles going on through Southern Canada saw sub 500 thickness over sprawling areas I think twice during the cinemas of those runs… 0Z and 06Z

Probably the most important distinction is that we are cold relative to the rest of the planet. The last I saw one of those pretty colorized global representation of temperature anomalies there were two places on the planet, the entire planet, where negative anomalies had been cumulatively observed. It was western southern Canada north eastern US and then someplace over in near the Urals. That might’ve been December or November or something. But anyway, I’d be curious to find out what the status of that ongoing monitoring is now. One thing that’s interesting is that the Arctic domain is exceptionally above normal right now. Exceptionally above normal in the arctic domain in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter will still store meat indefinitely… It’s the middle latitudes around the hemisphere are actually pulling a global means down in the last 30 days so I think the colorized distribution of anomaly probably has changed some. Either way the bottom line, it’s chilly outside.