Typhoon Tip

Lot's of negative interference... It's been plaguing the 15/16 wave space, in every guidance really since the get go. Still, the EPS mean has steadily improved - just not a chunk move - yet ... but this at least a middling impact signaled here

I’ve seen this kind of thing before… You get kind of a bowing back west and the pressure field with a lot of cyclone out east at this range, but then as you get closer, the western solution ends up taking over. This is similar to that, but it’s just doing it with a system that’s progressive so it makes it kind of weird looking Take away being that it’s possible this is just the hurry up and wait for the W solution to start winning. But that wall of convection erupting over the g string off. The coast is definitely robbing this thing.

Just posted what I think is related to that limitation it’s… Pretty clear that is stealing a lot of dynamics

You can see this premature ejaculation erupting off the southeast coast prior to the best amplitude/DPVA approaching the M Atlantic… This thing is basically starving because of that blow off going on off the coast That’s just the solution. I’m not sure I believe that.

Not a very good solution… I mean it’s interesting meteorologically but for the purpose of why people are in this forum it’s not very good solution

so ... because of that, the low actually doesn't deepen very much beyond that 120 period ... stuff to iron still ...

Oh that's interesting... okay, little tamer thereafter... It appears the b-c axis may be disconnected from this deep layer evolution. Probably too far E frankly... mm, I think that recovers faster with the native g-string and all that. It's just fuzzy in the model at this range - probably.

wow...this is going to be a long duration nor'easter with probably upper tier impact scenarios in that solution... it's only 120 hrs and already moderate to hvy snow is exploded from DCA BOS and the lows about to get captured still ... may be a season definer ... as is, in this depiction, it would be for the DCA-PHL crew

heh, actually ends up deeper by a couple dm ( 500 mb hgts) when it closes off there ...120 or so hrs.

maybe coming in slightly less amped this run... but still a deep sharp trough

Also useful to point out that the bulging into Manitoba is really critical there. That axial location near Frisco is traditionally too far west, but the idiosyncrasy of that arm rotating S on the heals of the 'Lakes trough is completing the wave space's couplet ...which transitively is favorable for maintaining amplitude that far E of the "real" ridge axis. Synoptic interpretation is a lot harder than folks realize. Just seeing where ridges and troughs are isn't the half of it.

UKMET trended favorably ... It's still not getting it done, but its trough cinema is rotating neutral with an attempt at neg as it curls through our longitude. 00z had the entire scope of it positive and pancaked, with nada. It seems with all this weight (multi source and amp) we have signal here for improvement - probably goes without saying... but, I'd still caution that we need to get some next-cycle continuity.

This snapshot of the EPS mean from Pivotal ... heh... you know, not only is this a huge improvement in the signal, there are members that are actually west of the Del Marva to Logan climatology. that would be f'n hilarious, huh

oh gees. i can't. i'm cooking. like up to my elbows in the kicchen. i'll have to take a break here in a minute

just a little ob. the 12z ICON didn't get it done, however...was a massive correction west with the cyclogenic aspects. huge for that one run cycle. can't correct even half that much more over else there'll be hell to pay