Typhoon Tip

yeah, I mentioned it a few days ago too. Thing is, .... ugh this is gonna turn some eyes but we're getting some of this seasonal lag business that was papered. It's more and less evidenced year to year. It's because of CC's speeding up of the jet stream in recency. It lends to extending the wave lengths deeper into the springs, which causes the aberrant cool "excursions" - the paper refers to these as unseasonable jet meanders. In winter as well, with unusually deep cold intrusions to mid latitudes, setting up very extreme temperature gradients which in turn speeds up the jets... It's a status of where we are, not necessarily where we are heading in the grand scheme of things... Sensibly it's well footed. There's also empirical data. I can tell you more than merely anecdotally, prior to 2000 I observed snow between Kalamazoo MI and Boston MA, twice in 31 years. Since? about 1/3 to 2/5ths of the years have had snow in May or an atmosphere supportive of snow at the synoptic scale/mass. This is also true at the other end of the dial in autumns. Where I'm going is two fold: A, this lending to a kind of forgetfulness about where things could be if this were not taking place. It's no one's fault per se. We get conditioned/acclimated... But really we've been colder than the back ground since last autumn, and now the jet is meandered to extend things further - that's what this really looks like... -refer to annotated post I provided several hours ago. That is an anachronistic SPV B, when does this break down? The hints we're seeing may be seeing the end.

I'm wondering if this rain for tomorrow ends up being more like a 3,500' evap level virga sky

heh...12z Euro ends that run way out there in a deep summer vibe.

Yeah...don't disagree. I'm tempted to summarize your thoughts here by saying that real intelligence isn't being exceptionally good in a narrow discipline. It's quite intuitive that the "relational database" is perhaps hugely more intelligent than the sophistication in the data tables. Just quick metaphor. Point being the relational aspect stops the over application specific finding..etc But in my discourse here I'm also venturing into the ramification of providing information to those that don't know how to objectively consume it - that's a problem with just giving data out. January 6 is an example of a segments of population gaining access to information, not judging in propriety, than working en masse. We could tire of writing specific examples that point out the risks of giving information to basically .... idiots. Lets not mince words. The lovable Idiocracy of civility at large!

LOL ... yeah, sorry... the other aspect triggered me .. But that doesn't have much analysis. It's a brief homage or outright complaint about taking data in quadrature and perhaps over applying its significance? heh, more in line of what I was talking about, tho. So I launched... Much of my rhetoric and diatribe comes down to a simple sort of reflection. Vast amounts of data and access to information doesn't make someone or an institution necessarily very smart. We live in an era where said vastness is already incomprehensible for lacking the the ability in the audience. And the "institutions" we are creating out of it are not very intelligent, most probably because of that. ( as an aside, a glaring example of one in a few ways in which human innovation has outpaced evolutionary built-in checks and balances; I once mused long ago but still find myself coming back this upon occasions like this conversation - the greatest natural disaster to have ever befallen this planetary history might actually turn out to be the rise of human innovation) I mean I understand the poster's sentiment to have given a broader spectrum of it all upfront, and not after it has passed through a narrow analysis ... or possible bias lens..etc... However, I don't know if that helps. Because there's a bigger problem with humanity whence exposure/consumption of waves of assumptive crushing new information isn't being properly handled. There are evidences abounding as to the ramifications in doing so.

That's opening a Pandora's box of "sociotechnological" ramifications ... holy shit! In a simplified ... hugely, hugely reductive idealistic sense... yeah, data that effects/affects everyone gets to be seen by everyone, with expediency, upon its very emergence - the only restrained factor being the communication time it takes to get the information to 8+ billion eyes and ears... Yay! What happens when you subject the population background density, one understandably characterized by limited or narrowed intelligence scope just for shear lack of previous exposure and/or education, certainly lacking any wisdom thru common experience, to the vastness of data outside their perspective frame and natively derived belief systems? Let's spell it out. F E A R The rest is academic. Fear and histrionic triggers 'compulsion' of reactionary response at worse. At best, hasty judgement. Look around us... Oh, I dunno... maybe paranoia and bad judgement..etc might say drive a society into voting into a dark triad personality convicted felon ruler, into the most powerful post known to modern humanity - and I'm not using this to make a political statement with this.. it's just a fact of circumstance we are all in - find a fucking cause for that predicament. People are in the process of mass-hysteria proving that aliens are walking among us based on some sort of "plausible" explanation of the last 5 to 7 years of Pentagonia released informatica on UAP's ...must just be a neuro-linguiestic preparatory course work to some big reveal that doesn't have a prayer at being either real...or if so, is not likely to be very big. People are lusting for some sort of overarching explanation for all this information they are too challenged to effectively categorize in any objective spectrum. Even if 90% of humanity had IQs of 120+ and en masse PHD's... the shear amount of incoming stimulus and information far, far exceeds brain capacitance at this point in evolution. It's probably why the savior thinkers among the various walks of society are beginning to cave themselves ... We can digress from here a lot of ways.... but if all this going to end well? It will be on the other side of (probably) narrowly avoided end scenario.

Speak of the devil... "Oceans near record heat again as El Niño conditions begin to build" https://phys.org/news/2026-05-oceans-el-nio-conditions.html https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

It's also been going on since last October, too. All but one month, which is arguable anyway ..., were showing a plaguing cold anomaly, either in scalar extreme when not relative to the whole planet, situated over the eastern N/A latitudes .(.aka, us ) since late last autumn. I've been posting them since mid winter. NASA releases them around the 10th... so April should be prepped soon. I would not be shocked and in fact expect to see this has continued. We may still be "above normal" ... or not. But if we are, we will likely be still cooler than everywhere else.

it's a winter pattern in the curvature/geometric orientation, but the sun's forcing it's will ... such that the former is doing so around spring hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights. It's been this way all spring thus far. 80 F? doesn't matter... that's just the higher relative hydro and non hydro heights. And the fact that it never lasts longer than a day, no sooner and there's frost on the car tops so quickly - it's like a cutter pattern in January, just dong so with spring heights. Below is being forced by some sort of background/non-linear forcing that we've been plagued with for weeks. It's been the resting/return state ... unrelenting. We're still in winter. We need to get away from this... These blue hydrostatic height lines keep laze faire drooping down as we're speeding toward the solstice and it's gotten rather anachronistically late. We don't have to be 87/63 ... But, lows both predominately and pervasively < 40F, even preceding "warm" afternoons (fake warmth that feels like it's bleeding out) is not going the right way and are just numbers and sensible appeals being created by a zombie winter baseline, hauntingly late. This, while the world is presently in 3rd place warmest ever (relative to date/CC).... too. zomb!

https://phys.org/news/2026-05-rapidly-antarctic-ice-shelves-global.html

Interesting article ... scientists having pitted AI against SRES model systems. It inspires new research ideas for me where this could just be a start. But in so far as what it achieves, the basic finding is that AI is under-selling extreme events, performing demonstratively worse than standard physics-based SRES modelling - particularly with intensity handling. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec1433

might be a dangerous heat wave toward the end of the month

I know ...but that's the tip off. I mean, there's only so much Earth can do. haha

Ha.... better than "flawless" that's a neat trick... But you know, in quantum mechanics there can apparently be to concurrent states so ... maybe you can have both perfect and perfect Haven't looked at the weekend yet

It's -SAD, or "summer SAD" in psychobabble, Scott. (he/she is not the only one I suspect suffers that in here )