Typhoon Tip

So what does ACATT mean to this social media depot ?

Today could rival some of the bigger diurnal recoveries since winter ended. Which is rare by the time we get to even June, let alone latter July... But it was 48 to 52 at a lot of these in-between lower el NWS sites on their interactive page, yet many of these sites are already up 25 F over those lows. No cloud/not enough to appreciably offset heating and still solar max lasing by a relentless sun... should be able to put up some 35+ deltas.

Heh... that's probably PR. Being where it is, i.e. not being able to escape that region without hitting land, they can't afford to take chance. Sometimes these things'll fester for 4 days, while models keep prematurely spinning them up. Attention wanes... yeah yeah. Then, all at once on that 5th day, people 'had no idea' it was happening or was going to happen, but the inhibition that was poorly assessed all along, suddenly goes away, and it then m'fugger goes nuts. The PR in a situation like that is strategic. Keep 'em apprised with the headline (watch). What they can't do is be responsible for any statement that will invariably be interpreted by the Idiocracy as 'okay we don't have to worry' charter boats and tourism and no worries. For one, the Idiocracy wants to interpret that way ... To mention also, we live in a litigation-happy society that seems to excuse if not reward people for being Idiots. But I'm digressing Meanwhile, if nothing comes of it... Watch is no harm no foul.

It almost looks like a TUTT with a sputtering TD underneath. TUTTs are not providing an anticyclonic geometric outflow when they are over top - opposite in fact. What's interesting about that is that TUTT's are often a part of TC evolution. But, they are near-by ... not directly overhead. The near-by model: The mechanism/relationship there is that their circulation proximity pulls an outflow channel which improves the mass-restoring inflow potential and the TCs gets a boost. It's like a pulsar and star and the pulsar siphoning material off the star, and it flows into an accretion disk. But in this case the TUTT is over top. No channel. I'm not sure that's what is happening here but the general CB exhaust motion doesn't inspire anticyclonic U/A has been established very well, and in fact, the deeper object motion is slowly cyclonic about a broader defined axis with that small surface feature ESE of LA. Also some NEly shear too

Nice condensed way to put that ... ...I've also been impressing upon this phenomenon myself since last October... 7 or so of the last 9 months have have been cooler relative to the planetary seemingly fixed hot spots, yet still warmer than normal relative to our own climate means. Relativity is baking people's perception, perhaps. We base our impressions on a combination of sensible experiences over the time... mixed up with "group theory"- haha. But, here's an example of May and June per NASA's GIS tool - granularity and so forth, notwithstanding. Clearly there is a preferential/bias to result cooler over eastern mid latitude N America, than it has ( again ... relative to climate) N-S-E-W and abroad. But combining sensible experience with headlines that rarely include our region when it comes to warmth ... it's a bit obfuscating/false impression making - maybe. Anyway, we're above normal, just not as much. There are a few other cooler nodes as one can clearly see ... I haven't been paying as close attention to those in all honesty - preoccupied by how warm enthusiasts are being tormented locally ( haha). I wouldn't be shocked however if these are "geological resonant feedback" regions. In other words, wholesale planetary factorization 'sort of' fixing those cool vs warm regions. Some of that's got to be true. I mean, the perennial N/A pattern ( PNAP ) has a flat ridge west, nadir-ing flow east, as the westerlies impinge on the western N/A cordillera ... forced up and over, and then Coriolis bends the flow into NVA... etc.. But, that does probably contribute to why our "heat domes" are too transient to be part of the cool kids. Something like that could be normal elsewhere.

yeah it's looked like that for awhile. The numerical teleconnectors suggest -PNA/+EPO with eastern limb -NAO from 24th + ... if folks want to get into the 2nd of the 3 typical heat periods summers ever give us around here, that looks to be a good time for #2 - albeit late. 3rd'll have to be later August but by then ...we're past solar max so we get cheated in New England as usual. LOL but anything to continue being colder relative to everywhere else while still registering warmer than normal, a leitmotif that's had one or two exceptions by has been predominating our monthly results since last summer really when I began keeping track of the sneaking butt boning

700 mil bar winds being west Northwest, north of the warm front is the problem It kept it pinned down there in southern PA, despite having southwest wind at the surface on either side of the boundary. It gets sawed off aloft. All we get is residual elevated convective blips amid strata rains. Cool and humid. that phenomenon of the winds bending back southeast north of the warm front preventing it from coming in as something I’ve seen in this part of the country quite frequently actually over the decades I’ve lived here. Meanwhile, warm front looks in the pgf like it’s in a laminar flow/no resistance, but they just don’t move because of it.

84/47 ... lot of mid 40s dps. Our source tomorrow is behind a warm boundary smearing through circa 10am to 2 ... after which we sector wedge 88/72's like lower Michigan - maybe. Getting from here to there seems like a warm over instability op tonight.

Pretty clearly a circulation formulating west of Sarasota

Heh... looks pretty clear via the higher res vis images I looped that the convection down there fired off in the region below the axis of denser smoke. In fact, probably the training ran along the temperature gradient between N NJ where it was denser, vs where more sun/sfc heating was realized.

you're dreamin' That's an autumn shut-it-downer pattern big time

If the pattern keeps doing this ... ? fire up the May/2027 thread

The loop I just provided suggests we might be in trouble by 2 ...4pm

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=gwas&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24