Typhoon Tip

It’s a good approach… At this moment, I’m not really excited or disappointed. I’m really the same way I was this morning. Because it helps when you identify what’s going on I mean that protects you from that other shit I’m not sure what else to tellto tell people, but whatever.

that’s why it all strikes me as data loss… This is just to incongruently bad for that particular cluster. You don’t move that much this close in without there being a very significant systemic change and the best thing to account for that is missing data. If data shadowing somehow caught up with this particular model system, then I give it a pass because you’re only as good as the shit you’re eating

Not to steal his thunder but I made the money post about this this morning I did a very discrete comparison of the Euro and the GFS recent runs and isolated the difference between the two. The euro is now finding the short wave that the GFS has been tracking all along and suddenly this happens. As far as I’m concerned that’s the money post. I don’t care who makes the post. I’m just sayn’ for the sake of content question is do they both now en masse collapse out to sea ha ha ha ha wouldn’t that be funny just for shits and giggles I also described the phenomenon in modeling known as “data shadowing” , yesterday. I’m wondering if the euro fell victim to that. Though I would’ve assumed that would be a thing of the past it could be a good description for what went on this week with that model. interesting.

Well, that’s fine Ray. That’s a constructive criticism based upon years of experience or whatever. … It’s not filling the thread with garbage, which is frankly not fair and no pun intended, misguided I don’t agree or disagree… You could actually philosophically say that it sucks at East Coast cycle Genesis. It’s so persistent so maybe that’s telling. Just a thought.

yeah.. and can we please kindly ask people to stop with the GFS sucks routine. The not so kindly version, folks sound like psycho hypocrites considering what they were doing to the Euro with the same fang dango bullshit last month. Can, seriously.. all models score, all models blow it. It's just the status of the tech. Grow the fuck up. Will's right...this is reversal Feb 1 incarnate. Just stop Edit, this wasn't directed at you but it's annoying

Hugely agreed X 1,000% .... I wrote about this, this morning. This is really marvelous black and white competition/test op between the two front runner guidance types. Rumble on coastal .

Nah ... Euro just can't seem to constructively merge those wave spaces.

43, no wind, full sun through pristine clean air. After 5 weeks of cold drear ... I tell ya what... it's easier and easier to motivate against any winter on any chart.

In the end ... should the ECM/UKMET and any other east and/or smearing solutions prevail, the indices would have nailed this. From the get go, going back 10 days, the -PNA was establishing. It was actually partial ( at least) in discussion regarding warmth after the 15th. That's delayed ( perhaps ...). In fact, the operational pattern handling never really expanded the warmth as much as the indexes would statistically correlate, but there's always negotiation room. What we got out of that so far was a yesterday rain bust at 37 F. Where's my beach chair! 7 days ago when this started hinting, then getting pimped, I warned early on that deep lows crawling up the coast was not supported. The only reason this started getting more attention from me, is because there is a relative max in the PNA, while on whole, it's negative. The thing with the PNA domain is that it is very, very geographically large. One end of it can be positive(negative) and it may skew realities at the other end. So when seeing this, therein is room to negotiate an event, It's rising some 3 or 4 SD in three days there among the Can/Euro/U.S. clusters ... So, we'll see how the "negotiations" go.

It's an interesting time-dependent bust study. Relative to the 96-108 hour, if the Euro is right vs the GFS. For us that difference probably doesn't survive modern attention span's failing myelination and memory fixing ( LOL ), but down in the MA... talking the difference between a mere snow day vs regional halting of all civil modes. So for a D4.5 window, one of these models could bust impressively badly. heh. A compromise (mid way) impactor probably is sensible, but like I was describing earlier... this whole situation has a greater than normal short term adjustment potential to it. Whether that happens, remains to be seen, but the reason for that is notable differences, small yet crucial, are creating massive variance down stream - talking about the handling and identification/physical processing thereafter, with the ejection out of the Pacific/general W.

What ?

The last 3 consecutive runs of the CMC were progressively less

It's not extremely rare. Many massive events clipped shy of getting this far N. Just being fair

First time I've seen the sun succeed at 'eating' a morning cloud layer back quite so obviously. Almost 40, no wind ... kind of napey out there. It occurs to me that this thing coming up tomorrow night, is p-type a matter of contention? That sort of doomed the last thing, in that the BL was 3 to 5 too cold in the guidance.

The only issue I have with this analysis is that it negates ( or just doesn't consider) trend. Trend doesn't stop at the scalar moment of the modeling image. It implies 'reality' is moving toward a different destination than the still frame. Very important consideration in deterministic philosophy in this bidness. In this case, there's been a persistent ..albeit slow, trend NW recently. And there is also a little bit of reservation one could apply to your analysis in that these tools are not confidence-weighted evenly. There is situational awareness and bias that are unique to some guidance. So your blend approach isn't terrible ... it's actually rather good. But, we have to be careful because the application of that cannot drop trend, nor being aware of the constituent member's individual contribution.