Typhoon Tip

Yeah, I kind of typed ahead of my thoughts there There was a “surge” between the end of February and sometime in May … most of which occurred in March, but in total it was between .3 to .4°C this is may vary by source. I’ve seen the range. But yeah, that took us right to the doorway we do not know we do not want to go thru, apparently The 1.5 critical threshold. At least we’re not respecting it as a species. And that was not supposed to happen so soon. The surge of that spring close the gap at an alarming rate…outpacing predictions by global modeling and scientists by decades; at the time, it was believed it was temporary. So what’s troubling further, or should be… it has yet to go back really. We are as of right now still just about right there - but it’s obviously varies by tenths of a single degree weekly. There was conjecture in the ambit back in 2923 that it probably would settle back after a while. that has not happened. I don’t recall exactly who said it and where it came from but I do recall. Anyway, the details aren’t really that important… my objection is directed atpeople like that guy making declarative particularly ones that are preposterous like that because they don’t fit the mathematics of what’s actually happening in objective reality.

here comes summer ...

Today was much more likened to a BD than the other day... If you loop the hi res vis imagery, you can see this frontal fist punching into the upper M/A and this also jammed through here this morning,

No confidence ... . How in the fuck could anyone take that position when the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023, 0 forewarning ?! And it was not predicted by any agency, man or machine If what you are saying of his, or any other's attitudes akin to it, is true, they're all full of shit frankly. Sorry. I'm not directing this at you ...I've grown tired of hearing these idiots with a veritable podium making declarations that are so clearly arithmetically wrong, if they are frustrating they are embarrassing. NO, until something or some one comes forward as not only having predicted the 2023, "instantaneous Earth detonation degree event" would occur, but precisely and incontrovertibly how and why, logic calls their bluff. They are highly suspect if not unequivocally false.

I guess experimentation is over... CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO (11 Feb 2026)

yeah, 35 and drizzle at 7:30... now 66 here with that vague summer's aroma to the air. I'm wondering if this burst might event make the 7 - 0 It's not just diurnal. It's a warm sector that caught up to the sun by just enough time.

Yeah, we're likely getting east doored big time tomorrow.

oh, shit ... you're still hosed. sorry bro

64 Mostly sun but a few patches of mackerel fractals or whatever those are called here and there. Feels like deep spring. Close enough ... this completes the temp swing absurdity ... 73 the day before yesterday, 34 during the IP yesterday, now probably 67 or so today...

partly to mostly sunny now.. 56 ... probably we touch 61-ish ? anyway, no wind and warm sun it's gone from F- to a C... If can get 64, I'll consider C+ hahaha

Not to be difficult but on April 3 ... high-ish late summer sun equivalency, should it break through ( and it looks on vis loop like it's peeling off like Pope was suggesting ) is going to save the day in my mind. 50 with hot sun... fine. Wind should remain light. Very napey

That's what I'm thinking, too... Mixing is needed and some backside dvm from elevated cv in that band might do it

Mixing is key... The models try to warm sector everywhere S of Brian and including his latitude, which agreed ... at the moment challenges the imagination as how in the hell that can actually happen when looking at larger regional synoptic observations. Take this hi res vis loop, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Notice that wedge of very low level cloud arrow heading into interior VA. That's like a latex paint spill on a highway, imagine cloud-cars are gliding over the top of it. We are underneath that paint spill in this metaphor. In order to scour that out, the sun will help... but mixing is really needed for that to happen. Pure speculation, but I suspect that is why the meso models have been insistently cool as they have been, despite the frontal look of the models ( 18 to 00z later on...). They are telling us that there won't be enough mixing. It's like the warm sector pivots across the top never kissing the surface. Need the cold front to clean house. Tomorrow may actually be better than guidance, particularly if it clears. Ample late summer sun quality rising over a scoured out d-slope flow that isn't CAA crazy might actually make conditions anomalously good relative to having an overtop high pressure again building in from Ontario. Which by they ... - I'm just diatribing in general - odds lean away from observing a real and true wholesale warming over the eastern mid lat continent, if/while that PV continues to its relentless re-establishing presence N-E of Hudson Bay. So long as that is apparently never ever ever going to change ... eh hm, we are doomed to those over top high pressures ... almost like back building they are, bullying in and afflicting with NE-E "coldrums"

It's going to be fun watching the models fail as this stagnated cold saturated density on the bottom of the atmosphere clings to the region. If it does turn out "nice" ...it will be among the more exceptional same 12 hour period turn arounds recorded. 37/drizzle. It also isn't a good look when there is an active NE wind down in NJ, still, approaching mid morning. I'm perfectly willing to go with the bust today if need be. Haven't been completely sold on the whiplash. But should it turn around enough to fairly transform this rectal plaque into a nice description, hell...stranger things have happened I guess. Edit, recent check and the wind field has finally this hour gone variable between BOS-PHL so perhaps en masse mixing event is readying itself. We'll see.

I keep seeing this repeating theme in our monthlies that are above normal. The ballast of the warmth appears to be occurring in fewer days than the mode. The modes are actually showing more days nearer to neutral and/or negative. Below is HFD for March a just one example