Typhoon Tip

yet another way to metaphor it, we got *!@#ed in the ass

I never had a problem with this winter ..even before this last bigger snow producer. I just figured it for over-achieving on cold alone- I realize the demarcation is based upon snow fall, but that's endemic to these individuals and collective psychology amid this very niche' social media. We had early blocking ... we had snow threats. Some minor ones panned out. But a bigger event eventually transpiring was a parlay when we had/have a cold biased winter pattern persisting the way we did. Notice also ...we didn't get a bigger deal event until after the N. Pacific corruptive variant of the -WPO plaguing Dec was finally fully vanquished. That was a toxic relationship with that giant narcissistic block, LOL. Anyway, we got back to episodic -EPO bursts and allowed the Pacific to undercut for a coffee break and we get a STJ drive snow bomb out of it. Anyway, even if we didn't get this 15 to 20 incher, we probably would have ended up near normal by the end off 2-3" buck shot adding up over the long haul. So there... normal snow in a cold winter. The problem is... that psychology ^ ... people tend to judge the winters based on weather that they get that psychology masturbated or not. So that's really a different discussion entirely..

I wonder if this can be ironed out if that relays weaker up there ... LOL, frankly I've grown weary and tired of even looking at this motherfucker

I actually agree with this sentiment ...wrt to just this 12z run, sure - The system's close 531 dm actually encases the whole region with some E component at that 500 mb initiated. The QPF paint on the actual surface chart looks dubiously broken apart. This is a very large system. It's possible in fact probable that the there'll be an extended quasi CCB arc out farther than the typical size one may be used to seeing. I mean I'm not trying to gaslight anyone into thinking but this arc could be more formed than what we are seeing here - if having the visual example helps ...

Mathematically ... the speed of the flow is absolutely a part and crucial part at that, in the Navier-Stokes momentum of fluid system equations, to which these models are physically responsible for. Propagating a wave through that medium is effected - There may also be other factors involved; I'll just add that I've seen 500 mb progression of Feb 5 1978, and the block decaying was observed as collapsing S - it was in fact what triggers the N/stream to fall S/ subsume scenario. But maybe I don't know what you mean?

I don't know what everyone's written overnight but this is gonna have to be a positive bust at this point. Otherwise it's a saga about a signal verifying, a storm resulting, and we (winter enthusiasts) get porked. Done deal. It just is what it is... It's still odd that the whole bundle/wave space is taking such a parabolic motion and won't obey ( apparently) convention, but .. these things don't always fit into the text book in this business. Anomalies, relative to (as in within) ongoing anomalies, due also happen. There's a logic to it ..it may need reanalysis and whatever to suss that out but ... I would still strongly suggest that the background speed soaked flow is playing around with and stressing standard models into behaving in odd ways.

I doubt that low pressure bouncy ball mess off the southeast coast is legit with the NAM

Looks like switching from positive PNAP to more of an overrunning risk spectrum

Funny at the gym I was considering the Boxing Day Storm and how 48 hrs prior that system had been all but entirely smashed SE off the charts… I think it might have been the NAM that made significant surge from the dead … Of course doubts were going on in here like a whiteout Then one by one … 300 mi yanks out of the grave … every cycle going forward off all guidance. The whole thing waited until there was literally zero hope. Ha ha ha ha Anyway, wasn’t the boxing day pretty high in the list of analogs the other day? It would be kind of fitting if this one came back, although doing it from day four is probably not quite the same scenario

So am I to understand from this that the entire euro system shifted west…like en masse?

This had a hook and latter vibe to it early on too… Sort of got lost, but we may have to go back through that phase of stuff before this ultimately becomes a real deal. Looking ladder storms do happen though.

Funny yeah, that’s where the low really should be… I think some of these recent upgrades in the models at all our hypersensitive to convection maybe. Just a thought. Coupling that with a speed flow contaminated atmosphere that’s never gonna integrate well with a low that’s trying to close off and structure itself vertically.

Scott's just tuggin' on minion chode hairs with that. We're in the solar minimum for another 2 weeks. The sharding back of snow banks will begin in earnest after the 8th ..10th. Having said that, there was day light at 5:30 pm today ...I noticed this as I was leaving the gym. That was pitch dark just last week at that same time. We're on the slope - can't be denied. I also thought the sun coming through the S windows felt warmer on the face. It's just a fact of celestial mechanics and life.

welp ... that's taking an anomalous track relative to the larger scale synoptic structure(s) ... but, sometimes weird shit happens. I think the background speed of the flow is a problem. It gets harder to excuse the increasing numbers of these observed idiosyncratic behaviors as just 'bad luck' - luck is really when you don't why something is happening but it does, unexpectedly. I no longer sense this as occurring for no detectable reason, nor see this as unexpected. I keep seeing these events in the late mid and extended range and watching them torpedo as they come into shorter terms. I also suspect this is why we see this attenuation of event profiles during that same relay..it's because organized structures at smaller scales are getting speed stressed. It's no death knell. At some point something will subsume phase, but of all event types there are, subsumers being being the most time-dependent fragile ... there's a reason why we haven't seen subsume types. The odds of those types succeeding has gone down.

man..hahahaha just saw the Euro surface i mean to successfully tease every coast from PWM down to the Va Capes like that 96 hour frame, simultaneously, some 800 miles in one contiguous arc of 'imagine if that was onshore' is really quite an achievement. how the hell did they do that -