Typhoon Tip

Yeah, that trend W is probably not done considering that it’s oblong pulling n that direction and there’s all those dense members on that western semicircle

We’re in the midst of the whip back trend that would seem

NAM skill in this range is vaguely dependable at best.

I wouldn’t focus on the QPF That 500 mill bar combined with that surface there’s no way that thing isn’t causing major major snow problems, clear to Fitchburg

With that 500 mill bar in that surface depiction the way that series has it? I know you just meant in general, but that thing would have huge wind and snow problems all the way in But I don’t use that model anyway so just commenting to what that looks like. It actually kind of reminds me of the old DGEX

I’m actually wondering if the 00 runs just all come in like that… Maybe not that ferocious but you know full commitment

Bump

50-50 chance that 0Z is a full Monty

It’s a good approach… At this moment, I’m not really excited or disappointed. I’m really the same way I was this morning. Because it helps when you identify what’s going on I mean that protects you from that other shit I’m not sure what else to tellto tell people, but whatever.

that’s why it all strikes me as data loss… This is just to incongruently bad for that particular cluster. You don’t move that much this close in without there being a very significant systemic change and the best thing to account for that is missing data. If data shadowing somehow caught up with this particular model system, then I give it a pass because you’re only as good as the shit you’re eating

Not to steal his thunder but I made the money post about this this morning I did a very discrete comparison of the Euro and the GFS recent runs and isolated the difference between the two. The euro is now finding the short wave that the GFS has been tracking all along and suddenly this happens. As far as I’m concerned that’s the money post. I don’t care who makes the post. I’m just sayn’ for the sake of content question is do they both now en masse collapse out to sea ha ha ha ha wouldn’t that be funny just for shits and giggles I also described the phenomenon in modeling known as “data shadowing” , yesterday. I’m wondering if the euro fell victim to that. Though I would’ve assumed that would be a thing of the past it could be a good description for what went on this week with that model. interesting.

Well, that’s fine Ray. That’s a constructive criticism based upon years of experience or whatever. … It’s not filling the thread with garbage, which is frankly not fair and no pun intended, misguided I don’t agree or disagree… You could actually philosophically say that it sucks at East Coast cycle Genesis. It’s so persistent so maybe that’s telling. Just a thought.

yeah.. and can we please kindly ask people to stop with the GFS sucks routine. The not so kindly version, folks sound like psycho hypocrites considering what they were doing to the Euro with the same fang dango bullshit last month. Can, seriously.. all models score, all models blow it. It's just the status of the tech. Grow the fuck up. Will's right...this is reversal Feb 1 incarnate. Just stop Edit, this wasn't directed at you but it's annoying

Hugely agreed X 1,000% .... I wrote about this, this morning. This is really marvelous black and white competition/test op between the two front runner guidance types. Rumble on coastal .

Nah ... Euro just can't seem to constructively merge those wave spaces.