Typhoon Tip

Oh my god, I haven't been blue light social media over stimulated in 3 hours, there must be a dystopian wave of horror folding over the horizon

That's funny you wrote this... I was wondering how being +2 to +5 for 10 days isn't sustaining? I guess the subjective side of that needs to be brown out 100s for 10 straight days and with Locus swarms, brimstone and and booming voice from the heavens that says, "I don't like you!" lol

If anyone is forecasting based upon climate ( and I'm not saying that's what anyone or source actually did - ) they take risks to put it nicely. More of a philosophy of approach op ed: Climate shouldn't be used as much of any correction for any scenario. We look over all these modeling depictions and/or cinemas going out way in time.. comparing those to trends ( which trend is a lost/deeper art than most are aware frankly but that's another discussion - ), we get an idea of/what the biases may end up like. That's our prototype/beta forecast. Once we have that, we can/may/maybe should, reflect on whether or not climate should factor? Frankly, it won't factor very much. Why? because climate is a mean of everything that happens. It says nothing about the SDs that took place along the way - in fact... it hides them! Climate invocation should be limited to the obvious: it's probably won't snow in June; it probably won't be 90 in January - though revisit that in 30 years lol The fact that Climate Change is hugely coherent and objectively real, and cannot be denied by anyone that is not diluted ...eh hm, means that all the above is especially made more true. Because climate inference, itself, is problematic when the proverbial goal posts are moving - not just moving, but accelerating, too.

Wow, that's a mean lookin Dercho bitch about to unleash fury on Iowa City

sort of... As Brian was intimating, there was conjecture/interpretation for a cooler first half of June back whence. I personally give that the benefit of the doubt ( although privately ... there are those that falter implementation of any 'cold bullshit filter' so they may have a bias contribution that it's totally going so snow on July 20th ... weeee Excluding that contribution though ), but in doing so, was adding the notion: it seems that verifying warmer than guidance is overwhelmingly the observation compared to colder than guidance, regardless of future patterns being offered. I mean it may have even verified a cooler "looking" pattern, but for whatever reason ( probably CC, let's get real - ) your likely to flop on the warm side.

I can tell you these 'feel' correct... Approaching 10, and these have another update coming... so, 10 after 10 pushes this deep into stifling and prooobaly more warning level heat than just Advisory from about 1pm thru 5pm... I don't know what the time requirements are on the headlines so not criticizing there, per se... but if we tap 94 ..95/72, that's a damn sizzling HI. By the way, this region appears to be weirdly 2-3 F hotter than everywhere else at this particular time.

Fwiw, NWS' climo Prelims have +2 to +5 at their 4 representative sites for SNE thru the first 10 days of June ORH/BOS are absurd and need to be changed, since climate affects POPULATIONS I suppose the Logan one has a sciency usefulness for how the coupling marine environments and all that jazz... but otherwise? no. Using that for "Boston" is just a thorn that is generations overdue to be pulled out. Doesn't matter what it takes or what hardship is perceived, if I were a fascist god, I would tell them to do so immediately or suffer the wrath of discontent that makes president Dump look like the bed of daisies he's about start nourishing ( ...actually, they'd probably vomit, wilt and die ) ORH is a little less egregious. There are neighborhoods scattered around the AP up there on the hill, but because it's geo-physically always going to be 6 to 8 F cooler up there than the swelter below where there's many orders of magnitude more people actually living - to fairly use that as climate is jack shit, really.

I wonder if data population schemes are more problematic in summer than winter. Maybe a known thing. Tracing that 500 mb vort paneling backward ...it seems the Euro/GFS are both getting an awful lot of momentum arriving out of the Pacific over the western continent around D5/6, then racing it into a bit of non-linear constructive interference triggering a shallow wave break and bombogenesis - originating along the lofty 570 mb height contour is a head scratcher. I guess it's not impossible... I mean, the models have to at least be physically possible otherwise they have 0 meaning.

Look at this pig ... 984 mb low near BUFF, yet ... immersed in only 564 dm thickness, having almost no hydrostratic gradients surrounding all quads, either In summer. This is D7 Euro so... meh, no responsibility to accuracy is really there - yet - but that's an example of too much amplitude ( or likely to be...) on summer mid range charts. I like the triple point secondary low forming at the head of the 576 - that combination of metrics you don't typically see, huh

Oh, yeah.... I posted their disco excerpt ... "...especially away from the coastal plain. Heat Advisories may be expanded further east; however, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop into eastern MA sometime on Friday" But in their defense... they did mention the advisories might extend east - I don't care to be involved with the petty pot shot at NWS thing... just sayn'

? I think there's a pattern relative warm bias that is the CC expression that is sort of unnoticed - or maybe ...everyone knows it but chooses to ignore. I dunno. But what I mean by pattern relative warm bias is that the pattern essences may actually be verifying better than either the temperatures that result, as well as what folk tend to associate what those patterns look like the temps should be. I don't mean that necessarily wrt this last month's behavior ( necessarily...), but I always go ahead and assume two aspects: these 540 dm festering multi contoured hornet stings on the summer D9-13 charts we see over James Bay are not going to do that, and, whatever comes of it...we'll be 2-7F above scalar predictions anyway

Maybe too much of a good thing? Too much data dooms us in here in winter as we needle through all these implications over multitudes of modeling output that starts to paint these ideas on how to get a storm pack to 20" from 3 units of vertical velocity when sometimes a step back and head clearing might make the event at hand a bit more realistic and less ACME coyote planned. LOL... I dunno. Maybe analogous to that they're looking at too many reasons that could happen and not enough at if it's likely. I did annotate a chart that showed a tendency for a west bulged PP on Friday, yesterday morning, but it was very weak... The NAM grid had that numeric suggestion at Logan of 88 to 76 back to 88 wind driven temp flop look. Not sure if that's what they were spooked by. That same 'bulge' is now gone, and the NAM grid has offshore throughout.

It's a standard summer oscillatory pattern. We could have really assumed the models were too deep on the polar side of the ambient jet, a failing particular to the GFS in latter mids and ext ranges... As we get closer, it's converting it to more climo-friendly wave spacing pushing fronts through a more neutral foot. Hydrostats meandering up and down around 560 dm thickness isn't exactly a cold fulcrum. It shouldn't really inspire very BN to be honest. - realize there's some shape likeness to autumn but folks whom are challenged to employ an objective "cold bullshit filter" ...like at all, may find that too hard to resist, however

Yeah, just poking around the NWS non-standard sites and everyone was 68 to 72 for a low. Some in fact are 80 by 80... that's a bit above climo too. We'll see where we are at 10am. I don't frankly see any limitations on high temperature as the nocturnal weakly bounded low on the arm of the warm front has escaped seaward and clearing has enveloped; we're pretty much unobstructed solar, dumping raw radiant power into a very prepped situation/high-ish launch scenario. I'm noticing an AWT moment as NWS has indeed extended the headlines throughout - that weak BD idea in the models was another example of their going from poor detection in previous generations, to being oversensitive and over creating them if you ask me ...

touched 90 here.... tomorrow and Fri look higher probability for at least that number around here