Typhoon Tip

Egads.... don't turn the wind onshore this summer.

And here we are ... 63+ already. Full sun. Bit of a breeze but we're probably making 74 for a high so that won't be much of a factor. Tomorrow's warmer yet... So it was 53 here yesterday. Dry though. Grading is subjective silliness but will play ball for a miniute and say it was a C day. Today is an A.

The operational models, all of them ... are lagging behind the mid month warm signal that both the numerical indices, and the extended range ensemble synoptics ( all three) suggest. They are flipping the script after ~ 12th to 15th in there, but the oper versions are feeling pretty strongly that a winter pattern is most appropriate and likely during the entire summer of 2026 as we continue to face an inevitable GW future... The operational versions are oblivious. Reloading a winter mocking pattern foot. They're stuck. It's gotta end at some point... So I guess we'll see.

see...I think it's really just whether the sun is shining for a lot of return engagement in this social media. I've come to find over the years there's a coherent increase in the complaint rate based on whether that is the case. Less about temperature and more about sun. Cloudy and dry.... 'top ranked shit day' this and that. All complaints more than just seem to settle off if the sun blasts through south facing windows I have a stretch of cedar fencing coming in tomorrow ...I had to go out and prep the property line; pretty nasty job toiling in contaminated dirt and old human detritus. This is kitty corner to an urban setting so it's not like rooting around in nature's regolith and bucolic Earth. Pretty sure I was turnin dirt and exhuming plastic fragments from 1972 back there. Gross. But I can say...dry and cloudy at 52 F? It was a helluva bargain over having to do that toily task if were 80 F and humid. ho man. it's all relative I guess

Just be thankful those model solutions from 10 or so days back failed. They had us heading into some kind of a 2005 May redux ... Tomorrow at about 4pm will be like a completely different universe. mid 60s to lower 70s, with partly to mostly sunny. Altho probably a tad breezy for some tastes. Tuesday could be 80... At no time in the 2005 May ordeal did we even see 50 spanning that multi-week captivity.

so, tomorrow we'll be above normal... Not thinking the low dunnite's too cold? The 'core" of the coldest air is passing thru right now. Wind looks to stay up ...defaulting to dry WAA. Has a "steady or slowly rising" vibe there I guess. Then tomorrow, good WSW mixing under surged 850 to 900 mb layer (-3 to +5) probably sends non-south coast tainted HFD-BED areas close to the adiabat. Looks like mostly sunny. 74-ish. Same is true for Tuesday, only add 7 or 8 ... just spit ballin' here based on a cursory eval of charts. But case in point to what I was just saying to John. We're heading into a couple of days that will try and hide the abuse over the last week's piece of overall shitness

Of all subjective takes on our predicament, this is probably the most fairly aligned with the objective truth - heh...the way I see it. Scott and I have had some back and forth about this, but the these months, really since last October - won't get too deeply into that but we've been stuck in some sort of resonate Rossby wave that's reenforcing the coldest possibility relative to ongoing noise, one that frankly still has not changed - have had small percentage day anomalies extremely warm enough to make months more normal in the pure numbers than the actual sensible weather. Basically... imagine the example of 7 days -3, then three days of +8 ... the average is positive for the 10 days. We used to have a saying back in the weather lab days that statistics are the biggest "out-liars" We're being gaslighted by the math for 9 straight fuckum months.

Relative to date, according to Climate Reanalyzer source the running sea ice is presently at a historic low

Ha! Just posted where/whence the is in the cards

Improving odds for a hemispheric switch to a warm signal for mid month. Which isn't saying a lot at still 13 days away, but improving nonetheless. Emerging collapse in the PNA coming from all extended guidance for that index. Meanwhile, the the AO is pulled back (finally). And, if it helps...the climate composite on the MJO wave space in 8 for May is actually a modest over the top warming signal.. Indeed, the MJO is forecast to re-emerge on the left side of the RMM with perhaps nearly the same momentum as this most recent propagation. It's not hurting a warmer cause So we'll see... if you're a warm enthusiasts, it's a light at a the end of a tunnel for deeper more foundational looking warm pattern. In the meantime, Tuesday may approach 80...HA! So, it's not like we can't get by in the meantime. I just wish we'd time one of these warm bursts on the weekend. Weird look in total, really. Stationary front from IND-BTV like that is odd at this time of year. So we get late winter on the W side and early summer on the E for a couple of days... massive gradient The other aspect to consider is that the index correlation to pattern orientation is different in May than January. So have to consider two aspects, seasonal wave space changes. Also that there's a season -D(x) component where that is in the process of changing weaker. That's the seasonality signal. Putting all this together ... mm I'd say between modest and moderate signal for a warmer pattern change, mid month.

mm... I've made no restraint in my expressing how I feel about spring around in New England. It's subjective, ...admittedly. But I find it loathsome. I don't really spin it as 'not so bad' at times just because it's like today. I think it is bad, with days scattered over time that are not as bad. But because we know what's in store, it's tainted. I don't like a sunny, 74 day in April, when knowing it is going to snow in two days. That's a weird personal thing ( probably...) but that day is like an abusive spouse that loves you to death when their not choking you in a narcissistic rage. No but it's just me. I have a very short tolerance for days like yesterday and the annoyance isn't compensated enough I guess. So over the long run, I'd rather not live here between ~ March 24 and Mother's Day if I had any choice.

Which by the way... we enter the solar maximum on May 5.... four days. Which means today isn't a whole helluva lot different, just sayin. It's equivalent to August 10 or 11

Similar... 56 but that pancake CU bloom patched it's way off to the SE and has left us 90+% open sky with some of the most uncontaminated blue the Earth can muster in this pre-holocaust industrial history lol Very light wind, and with the sun now officially insanely hot standing there it's giving that allusion to it being warmer.

Looks like it's thinning out some

haha, I know where you live just be studying the tendency that seems to be fixed. Seriously, it's probably terrain determined to some degree