Typhoon Tip

Is there a product out there that can sort of calculate what the ambient pressure, outside of cyclone, is ? Like not every low pressure is as impressively deep as it may look in scalar, because the surrounding medium isn't appreciably high. And vice versa. Case in point, the Feb 1978 blizzard "only" bottomed out at 992 or something - pedestrian by nor'easter cyclone depth climatology. But the 75mph sustained Boston Light winds pushing the surf into 30' seismic rollers would tend to argue that pressure well was somehow systemically deeper than 992, because the surrounding was elevated perhaps. Devil's in the deltas I'm wondering for the 1003 mb low and the 50 mph winds in a short duration ( like 4 hour window) nor'easter ...

So earlier I intimated I suspected this thing this weekend might try to charlie brown the cold dweebs and their private/secret thinking that it's totally okay to snow at this time of year ... , by normalizing the metrics some as we move into the shorter range. In other words, it should correct to just insulting to us normal folk - While it is the NAM, and therefore ... probably not altogether very useful or trustworthy at this range, it is still showing some normalization in this 12z run... Left is the 00z 84 hour fantasy, the right in the 12z 72 hour ( same time), 12z Sat Clearly the right/more recent version is stepping off the cold enthusiast enabling throttle. Altho it's odd that the NAM pretty obviously dampens cyclogen thermodynamics and mechanics, while still making the low deeper...

78 warmer than yesterday/hr by a couple clicks. Yesterday was 83... today should be 86 or 87. The clouds might offset the typical MOS too cold by 2 and make it look right this time. yay

It seems like as the curve of GW continues to rise, we get these freak cold excursions occurring later and later. I wonder if we'll get a late April thru early June 82-91 freak early summer some year, followed by a single afternoon of snow chances on Stratton Mountain Resort - Summit 3875' | 2025-05-22 07:37:20 PM ....on actual June 21st

That cold pop over the weekend is weird. That's like enclosing a -3 or deeper SD cold anomaly inside the size of a standard hurricane's πr² And moving fast ... in and out in a single afternoon. The other thing that's weird is that seldom do we observe a surface low develop over N Ontario and dive along a 170 deg azimuth to the NH Seacoast like that. It's ultimately not a big deal - yeah yeah it may cat paw at midriff terrain and non-stick snow on some summits for a coffee break, but that' hardly noteworthy. It's an under the radar highly unusual event if it goes down the way the guidance sets at this time. I still wonder if we aren't going to see a short term normalization of some of these aspects tho. We'll see.

I'm kinda looking for a "new" type of spring and summer heat that's been papered. "heat excursions" at higher latitudes have become a coherent/reproducible aspect of CC. That period of time suspiciously looks like an opportunity for one of those ridge nodal resonant features. UK is experiencing one now. And just like them, this one was not very well modeled either. They may be more sussed out by telecon trends - the old institutional way to 'sense' or see storms or warmth or cold etc.. at extended leads, because ( my conjecture) is that they are emerging within regions where the non-linear wave function is supplying - hence the "invisible" - a constructive feedback. The UK heat of these recent days didn't really show up in the guidance until 120 hours out. That's awesome in 1988, but 2026 ... mm, lukewarm skill. . It's anomaly distribution has been extreme, relative to date. Uuuusually bigger anomalous in the physics materialize early in the linearity of the guidance, and have a way of sticking around from a longer lead... Sandy showed up 13 days out. So did the 1993 so called super storm. There are other examples. These heat nodes at higher latitudes are an increasing global phenomenon, and the linear day-to-day logistics of events in the models are not seeing them like other events. There was a whopper in Siberia either last year or the previous ... The Pacific NW, 2020... there's a huge list. They are proportional in SD to non-heat-related bigs, but with historic heat... not storms, thus less well seen ahead of time. And have been surging in occurrence in the last 20 years. The fact that this heat over in the UK might have been been merely suggested, but then went kind of bonkers is a smoking gun attribution deal. The PNA dips to -1 for 3 or 4 days between June 6-ish and 10-like, while the EPO does a weird 3-day dive to -2 SD, all the while the NAO is positive. Every so often the operational runs do like that 18z yesterday... then of course fade. Seems like there's a region where the non-linear ( "tendencies" is the best way to describe that - I've called that correction vectoring in the past) forcing occurs in a domain from say IA-ME. It's unfortunately not a linear weather forecast, because it can't be. I'm probably over-explaining it. Simply put, we have to sense where these tendency fields are, and then watch for the models to avail.

Having married into a sub-Saharan genealogy that's about as close to living with heat as you really want to go, huh lol

Gettin there … tryin. i’m telling you there’s a heat signal there between 6th and 10th of June for somebody. Models are definitely being forced to hide it

I recall the 'omega' or omega quasi loading in the models going back 10 days though. The European heatwave,..not so much.

Right now is pretty close to flawless. If we were to break top 10ing down to the hour, this is a top 1 or 2 hour out of the year right now as we type and read.

77

74 here ... low was 51.

Discrete level synoptic observations re the late week/weekend thing This isn't the same or a very good analog in terms of behavior, nor anomaly intensity as 1977 May. Behaviorally, it's moving much faster comparing the present multi-model handling to back whence. It also appears to be shrinking in the cold anomalous depth as it is coming S. 1977 deepened some do to cyclogen height falls/feed-backs. Circumstantially, It's also not teleconnecting the same when considering the broader hemispheric mass-fields.

Didn't this happen last week? 80 to 90, Mon-Wed, followed by a piece of shit weekend? huh