Typhoon Tip

I noticed the wild fires N of Superior yesterday. Their plumes were streaking from source, due E at ludicrous speeds... owing to the ridge amplitude kissing the modest lower heights over midriff Canadian shield. ..blah blah. That said, there's definitely an MCS that's raged through eastern Ontario ...curving now SE through western QUE and is producing the typical outflow anvil canopy. It seems likely based upon these observations that both are true. It's probably hard to parse out of the vis satellite images how much is smoke and how much is cloud...I'd suggest most of what is seen is cloud however.

I knew what you meant ... I was just adding for general readers that physics requires that a well mixed column has to obey the adiabat temperature distribution in general. If it is 2 am , and the 850 is 20C, and it is well mixed, it's in the 90s at the sfc. Whether or not the atmosphere is can be well mixed at 2 am or not is another matter LOL. That's why nearing evening on hot days, if one is excruciatingly nerdy enough like me... they might notice the light west wind that had steadily rustled leafs all afternoon suddenly goes calm; it's because the surface - albeit still hotter'n Hades - has slipped below the adiabat. That adiabatic temperature might be 98 given the 850, but the sfc has by then dropped below that temp...etc. DP plays a role... if the air is heavier it may stay elevated longer. The other way to think of it is that the mixing height has slipped lower than 850, and if there is a weaker/no gradient in those lower levels, that extinguishes the momentum.

If it is “mixed“ to 850 and it’s 27 at 850 then the sfc has to be consistent with the adiabatic curve. Time of day doesn’t matter.

What was Dec 2014 like there

The issue with Carrington+ solar super storms is that the grid was not engineered with those in mind. There are no safe-guards, there are no redundancies after the fact. "In the cards" isn't really the issue - unless we mean at some unknown point in the future. But there's nothing imminent. As far as when? dice roll. Beryllium-10 and chlorine-36 are manufactured when the atmosphere is bombarded by cosmic rays associated with super storms and left as residue in the wake. They have been sampled in deep ice coring ... occurring in irregular intervals between 400 to 2400 years apart - the grid as we know it is utterly defenseless against these class of event. Infrastructural engineering over generations did not have solar physics in mind. Carrington+ event with the current physicality of the grid would result in a pan-systemic failure that would not be recoverable without physically replacing substation and connective utility infrastructure at a global scale. This is not hyperbole. This not fabrication of social media and/or media selling drama and fear for profit. This is fact. This verifiable. This is not something one can just not believe in because we live in an age where people think if they don't like hearing something they can choose not to believe it, and that makes it untrue. It's true whether one believes it or not.

Imagine 96% of the world rendered dark interminably due to a Carrington redux event

Thing is... we're never going to get an 'Andrew' up here. We can get a higher tier event, obviously. 1938 and maybe 'Carol' in the '50s demo that. But the true big dawgs are necessarily coupled to a 79.x+ oceanic thermal source that we just cannot really provide N of the Del Marva. Altho - in recent decades we've seen transient very shallow thermoclines with 80 in the shelf waters S of LI. That's like a 7 to 10 day window in late August. It's really shallow though. 10 minutes of NW flow from an early autumn mock trough and it's scoured down to 72 pretty fast. Not clear whether an exquisitely timed Express event at cat 4 would be coupled to that but I don't think it's sufficient. But to the point y'all makin' it's not necessary to get the dystopia. A busted open deep transitioner still whacking a wallop equiv Cat 3 racing up the CT River Valley ... yeah, that would do the trick. It would spread enough cane gusts and gustnado swarms up over eastern CT/RI/MA and S NH to pretty much shut it all down.

if the flow ends up unidirectional in relation to the isohypses from the NW ? meh

Heh, not passion. truth - I just don't give a shit to tread lightly around people that haven't earned it. Call-outs suck. too bad.

84/67 then with sun beamin' straight down it's gettin' there

What sticks out for me relates to a broader topic... That's a pretty classic tripolar anomaly distribution, which is correlated well with -NAO Now, at a 50, 000 foot linear correlation the -NAO is typically found during EC cane threats. The reason can actually be summed up in one sentence: -NAO means blocking at higher latitudes, which is all but required and prevents a Bahama routed cane from turning NE early. Up they come... But there's a caveat emptor: ...the NAO is not persistent at seasonal scales. So, merely noting the tripole mode isn't enough. However, its presence means there's a propensity for waxing and waning of the negative mode. If one is a cane/denudation of LI enthusiast ... replete with all the sociopathic wanton of calamity ... ( LOL ), that is good news. Yay. you at least have increased potential death and loss of property because the hemisphere is in a favorable super synoptic implication.

It's a dangerous time... This is a perfect sort of historic storm unfolding. We've created a civility protected from the problems in the environment, meanwhile ... the relative advantages of that same protection does a couple of things that are big-time negative feedbacks. One ... blinds the same civility from experiencing, thus cannot as readily see nor believing the problem is real - "the until it is too late" trope unfortunately becomes most apropos. Contributing here, I firmly believe that the limitation of a humanity to dimensionalize at such large scales ... is also an offset competition to competency. Two, spoiled it's population (and leaders) into believing that not agreeing with science and empirical fact is an entitlement to do so - very odd. Fake news and the tongue-in-cheek "alternate facts" that began 20 some years ago, isn't just a party trope. It's a fucking major problem. And thus demonstrate no compunctions exercising entitlement whenever science informs their actions are the problem. (One + Two )/ 2 = the mathematics of brickery May also = a nice and tidy Fermi Paradox explanation... 2023 demonstrated that the Earth lags in GW; the metaphor 'under tension' fits. The rate at which the "Anthropocene" epoch has introduced it's loading into the system (you could argue this epoch began when "Lucy" first picked up a burning stick ... but the vast majority just in the last 3-or-so hundred years) has outpaced the system's ability to respond. After all, we are talking a whole planet. But that tension has been growing more and more taut. As soon as background competing offsets falter just a little bit? Booinnnng. That .5C sudden globular scaled temperature responses taking place all at once ( in the spring that year) was an planet restoring; unilaterally, all systems of ocean, air and quasi coupled ocean-air systems. Here's a thought ... when you consider the human experience, the event of a bomb going off is almost instant. If you think of the planet as experiencing along geologic time spans, the 2023 was just as instantaneous. That becomes an analog for a bomb going off. Whole planets rising a half degree C something never before observed - the lack of recognition as a phenomenon is ... again, I believe the scale is too big to comprehend by too many

At first glance the 500 mb height cinema's structural handling looks like roasting in the Lakes then shunting S of us.. but idiosyncratically air mass leads the SE Canadian SPC flex that happens later this week so a tranche of the heat burst (modeled 500 mb soaring to nearly 606 over IA!) gets pulled around that large scale change/leads. So... Tomorrow's about +19C at 850 mb with ample W to WNW boundary layer flow tumbling over the terrain... After a morning of full sun, we're definitely mixing through that layer. The adiabats would support a 1000 mb T of 96 ... so the 2-m slope T is probably close to 100F ... So NWS issuance of headlines. Using that as metric ..this is classic over topper. Probably falls short of a heat wave, but it will be intense for the probably thu Wed. Tuesday night lows may remain impressively elevated. This is different than the heat wave in that their be more breeze so that's a blessing.

Well, that’s a hot deal on Tuesday Nother night that night whence the temperature doesn’t drop very much

I think the evidence grows that there is a population in NWS that just doesn’t like heat and doesn’t want to hear about it. They lean less, and insults intelligence in a way, as tho we don’t see right through it… They downplay it or mock it or do things like that because what’s really going on is their personal attitudes and perspectives overwhelm and it bleeds in - I get it no humans perfectly objective… But it goes the other way too I don’t care what these fucks feel that don’t like hyperbole about heat and extremes tho. Guess what ? it is that bad and it needs to be hotly expressed no pun intended, because nobody is paying attention enough to what is clearly an existential threat. We are in a physical mass extinction event, and there is no other culprit that science can physically connect that isn’tglobal warming. Fuck it talking bricks