Typhoon Tip

So that we can get a winter like this last season every 8 to 11 years, otherwise, ...delude and gaslight ourselves and each other into believing we're here for snow ? pretty much - Faux I realize no one cares ... but soon as I've procured the wherewithal I'm out of here.

A lot more wrong with that than just being way out there ...

"big" may be subjective... "when" also not so clear. I'd give it the first full week of the month to be safe. Most of what we are seeing in the pattern forcing appears to be -NAO/West orienting. The index prognostics have that relaxing during the first week... The 00z Euro decided to go bonkers with a new +PNA right as that is happening, though. And that really delays and complicates the exit strategy from the -NAO. If that has legs then an unseasonable trough delays any warmer transition. We'll see. The GEFs/GFS diverge from that idea and instead go toward neutralizing most fields. If that's the case, we go back to modestly AN. It's spring. Variance headaches are typical -

Yeah, no comment on the 3K Well, that’s a nasty couple of days next week, huh? The thing is that’s been in models for quite some time the first through the third. Solid teleconnector signal too. probably just have to mail that in. Hopefully we can get 2 to 3 inches of basin coverage out of that. I think it gets mild to warm at the end of that week, though. The real green up thrust.

There is some logic in expecting the NAM to be north bias without its ongoing performance… Has to do with a negative north Atlantic oscillation particularly on the western limb. With that being the case the forcing is south so the suppression similar to the GFS is probably a better tele connection for that particular index state.

Nam is always north of all of the guidance at this range 228th time stated I guess once in a blue moon it’s right, but most of the time it comes south

I understand the feelings ..I wouldn't attempt to dismiss or belittle them. However, taken fwiw I don't recall many April 23rds since I've been alive, that had very dependably desired weather outlooks either in play, or having been experience up to this point in the month. I'm not put off by this like it's a new plague and CC thing. I mean okay ...maybe.. But this seems to be behaving typically to me. You wanna croon and crow, go back to 2005 May. Now that'll knock back some Zanax. I dread this time of year because of what it is, which is behaving as usual to date as far as my experience and climate awareness say it should.

There's a diffused re-enforcing cool front passing through ( because we need more cold of course...). The wind gusting has slacked off here in the last 1/2 or so hour so it might've been a transient aspect of that feature.

Ha ha ha that’s all right. I knew I was going to incur the wrath just by bringing it up.

I'm a little more than 1/2 your age, then (bold) I'm already moving the other spiritual direction with regard to winter, though. I started longing more and more for 'the one that got away', which most sadly and likely not going to change - hoping on an alternate universe manifestation on that. No, it's not Christine - that was a passing story years ago that some obsess over for some reason. Anyway, I’m also increasingly longing for an escape place. This last year is the first when growing indifference tipped the scale away as finally exceeded the fading love for winter. The thing is, I'm still fascinated by the evolution of winter storms. But my fascination for a much large breadth of aspect in other sciences and experiences just seemed to grow along the way - natural personal evolution. I'd rather be involved with the fantasy science of anti-gravity propulsion systems. The search for extra-terrestrial life. Writing and publishing another science fiction novel - which I am working on... These ex of other fascination no longer need include this climatology, which in fact has been getting disrupted enough, anyway - I don't wanna play that denial game every November anymore. What used to be 'reasonably' dependable is not relegated to leveraging return rates and decaying probabilities. If/when I lose it for winter, it makes these April abominations that much more tedious to endure, too. Last winter was the first where it was ~ Dec 1 and loathed the notion that it would be a 5 month slog of cold and early sunsets

Hartford, aka BDL, is +4 and change for April.

Ah hahahaha perfect!

Ha! didn't y'all just have this exact same conversation two weeks ago? I don't get the impression you're succeeding in influencing that particular poster.. lol. Umm he's not inclined to agree with you, much less even read further than 'not great' when it comes to whatever it is he's using to promote the avoidance of inevitable seasonal progression toward summer. hahaha. that goes on here a lot. Like no problem admitting summer; but don't admit to signs and process -

We keep in mind also that the ambient thermal gradient between the tropic of Cancer and 50 N is getting weaker and weaker. By June, it's usually getting to it's perennial nadir - with the exception of any jet meanders which do happen once in a while. By and large though that all means the long wave, wave lengths are shortened to the point where any would-be NE Pac positive anomaly doesn't teleconnect that same in late May through late August as it does in late Novie through Feb/March. Shorter wave lengths in fact can intuitively signal a SW Canadian negative, over top a Great Basin/SW conus capping ridge, setting up future Sonoran release events... Quit a different implication from -EPO/January

Oh, completely agreed! ( full disclosure, I'm hoping for it). I don't wanna give Kevin any reason at all to start pimping drought fallacies in attempts to set up the dystopian d-drip doses all summer... meanwhile, my lawn stays green until mid august. Yeah, as far as the NAO handling... it's ( we know this -) obviously a stochastic index domain... but I sort of ignore the distractions of the individual model runs and just rely on a combination of 3 basics: the 5 day running mean of the synoptic structure; climatology; personal experience - as you mentioned, that -NAOs tend to blossom/lag after a period of usual early warmth - particularly when said warmth is over the eastern mid latitude continent. This latter need correlative proof and is personally anecdotal, but it is a late winter and spring phenomenon I have noted over many years. Just combining all that gunk... -NAO appears set up and well ?