CryHavoc
-
Posts
255 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CryHavoc
-
First TOR of the day -- for Craighead, Green, Mississippi, DUnklin, and Pemiscot -
Wild day for an ENH rating.
-
This is why MDT risk days exist, and why calling bust at 1pm is usually not a good idea. <3
-
SLGT issued for D3. Given the modest early season moisture quality, the warm-sector air mass is unlikely to be overly unstable coincident with initial deep convective development, with MLCAPE likely to limited to 750-1250 J/kg across parts of eastern Kansas into Oklahoma and north Texas. However, strong wind profiles should support some initial supercells and an evolving/mixed convective mode during the evening. Large hail and damaging winds can be expected across the region. A couple of tornadoes could also occur, perhaps especially in vicinity of the surface low/triple point across eastern Kansas and nearby Lower Missouri Valley, and/or across Oklahoma/east Texas and nearby ArkLaTex region coincident with a strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night. Seems reasonable. Definitely still worth watching.
-
Much of it. Although reports are that there are a large number of manufactured homes that were demolished, it does sound like there were well-built structures in the mix as well that were hit very hard. Mets on the air are stating the damage "looks worse" than the EF3 that hit in 2017, but I don't know how much buy-in I have as they all appear to be in a bit of shock (understandably so). All preliminary and subject to change, of course.
-
People in the parish, perhaps unsurprisingly, reporting the damage inflicted greatly exceeds that of Katrina.
-
Eh, I would be careful about personifying the storms. This was an extreme south outbreak, well south of even the usual "Dixie Alley" outbreaks, and many people live close to coastlines. Even on the less populated Gulf Coast, most of the areas have population centers.
-
Ugh, local reporters on the news are trying to estimate the intensity of the tornado. So frustrating, especially when they can only see a couple of blocks of damage.
-
WDSU reporting multiple rescues from witnesses/victims on scene. One witness reported a brand new well-built two story apartment that was removed down to the foundation. "Completely gone. Nothing left of it."
-
Indeed. Given the multi-vortex nature with the discrete funnels, I would be surprised if it was lower than EF3, though.
-
I think it's safe to say the past two days will end up being quite memorable, mostly for the wrong reasons. What a wild 2 day outbreak. Historic.
-
A friend of mine had the circulation in downtown NOLA pass directly over her. Wild day, even if not as crazy as we thought it would be.
-
Gotta think it's gonna be a historic outbreak for Texas, esp in March.
-
BWER on the Jarrell storm. That is a worst case scenario shaping up.
-
The storm near blanco is really starting to spool up. Locations in the path include Cypress Mill, Lago Vista, Liberty Hill. Would not at all be surprised if that puts down a strong tornado very shortly.
-
That's a pretty alarming sounding, is it not? No VBV that I can see on the winds, looks like a lot of shear and ample instability.
-
Significant clearing in Texas now. Looks like a very active day shaping up.
-
Surprised this thread isn't busier considering it's the first outbreak potential in the new "official" tornado season.
-
Day 3 Enhanced is up. SPC AC 190729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms appear likely to occur across an area centered over eastern Texas and into western Louisiana on Monday. ...Synopsis... A large/strong upper trough is forecast to emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains Monday, with strong ridging flanking the trough to both the west and east. As an upper low at the base of the trough moves out of New Mexico and into the Texas South Plains/Panhandle region through the afternoon, a surface low is forecast to move toward western North Texas through the afternoon. Ahead of an advancing/trailing cold front, a preceding dryline should mix eastward into central Texas during the afternoon. Overnight, an elongated low should be crossing the eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma vicinity, with the cold front crossing East Texas through the latter stages of the period. ...Portions of central Texas eastward to western Louisiana... Strong southeasterly/southerly low-level flow is forecast across the southern Plains early Monday, ahead of the advancing upper low. Strong warm/moist advection associated with the southerlies, atop a largely-still-stable boundary layer, will support an expansion of elevated thunderstorms across central Texas and Oklahoma through the morning hours. This blossoming of precipitation complicates the forecast for later in the day, casting uncertainty onto the degree of surface-based CAPE which may develop -- particularly with northward extent. However, with persistent southerlies advecting Gulf moisture northward, gradual south-to-north destabilization of the boundary layer is expected -- at least across east-central portions of Texas. By afternoon, potential for surface-based storm development is evident near advancing dryline across central Texas. Meanwhile farther east, storms along the southern portion of the larger/ongoing area of convection should also become surface-based with time. Strong/increasing flow with height, combined with substantial veering through the lowest 3km, will provide shear quite favorable for supercells. As such, along with potential for large hail with developing central Texas storms, risk for tornadoes should increase through the afternoon farther east. Through the evening and into the overnight hours, the favorably moist/modestly unstable airmass should expand eastward across the Sabine River into Louisiana. With very strong deep-layer shear continuing, risk for tornadoes -- a couple which may be strong -- should persist across East Texas and into Louisiana through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/19/2022
-
Might get a little action today as well, but the big event is Monday. Waco looks to be about ground zero for the action. I honestly don't remember the last time I've seen Day 5 ENH. I believe it's been at least a few years.
-
Don't forget, even if it does this, the assessors will look at building construction and manage to find fault with it. "There was a dent in the wall from 2016 which caused a structural weakness and therefore cannot be considered worthy of an EF5 rating." This was an EF5. Period. Maxed out violent wedge, long-tracked tornado accounting for numerous records including G2G, a TBSS on radar, lofted debris to 35k feet, foundations swept clean, scouring, vehicles tossed massive distances, trains thrown from their tracks. So measurements of actual wind speeds doesn't matter (el reno 2013), radar measurements doesn't matter, buildings leveled/decimated doesn't matter, foundations swept clean doesn't matter, incredible instances of one-off damage doesn't matter... Where is the science, here? At what point does the EF scale become entirely useless? It's not consistent, it's not uniform, it's not predictable, and it's changing year-on-year to be more temperamental and stringent. We may see 1-2 EF5s in a 50 year period if this is the new standard. The Fujita Scale is one of the few things I know in all of science that favors human-eyed-interpretations of an event over ACTUAL scientific data and measurements. There's very little science left to it.
- 939 replies
-
- 11
-
-
I dunno, doesn't look like a Ferrari or Lamborghini, so likely just EF1 damage being shown here.
