Iceagewhereartthou

Sentence 1: Unfortunately it seems to be the NEW normal. Sentences 2-3 : Nothing more depressing than other people's snow Sentence 4: Cold is NEVER, EVER a waste! Bring it on Sentence 5: Of course we have nothing to do with it, and it WILL change eventually, but it would sure be nice to get stuck in a GOOD pattern for six weeks every now and then Sentence 6: We certainly hope so but more times than not in the SE we get the pain without the pleasure Sentence 7: We hope, but December can certainly be spring like, as we've seen a couple years recently. Don't think we'll ever forget this Sept. Bring on FALL!!!!!

Thing is it will take a major cold frontal passage just to get us to normal! That's an insane stat, and looks like Oct is starting way above normal too! If the "averages even out over time" theory (aka "bathtub") ever works we'll be due some EPIC cold for years to make up for the last couple decades!

Yep, and just today the GFS has pushed it back yet again, now showing 14th-16th. It's all a hoax, cool downs are a thing of the past for the SE.

Yeah they continue to show the period around the 13th as promising so that it encouraging. Only problem is that before that they were zoned in on the period around the 9th and 10th. And before that it was the 5th and 6th that was going to be the real first front. Except they had been touting the 2nd and 3rd as the change of airmasses. But the end of September, 27th and 28th were going to bring the real relief. But before that...

Meanwhile, just as we can't get rid of summer, Northern Rockies of Montana under WSW for up to two feet of snow. MUST BE NICE

GSP just completed a Sept which tied for the second warmest ever at 78.1 (1921). The high was 93, the low was 67, FOR THE WHOLE MONTH (craziness!). 9 days reached 90 or higher and only 12 mornings dropped below 70, almost all in the last half. For comparison, this July had a high of 94 with a low of 64. 8 days reached 90 or higher and 13 mornings dropped below 70. Insane! CAE had an average of 81.9. The high was 97, the low was 66. A whopping 21 days reached 90 or higher, with 11 being 95 or higher. Only 4 mornings dropped below 70. CLT had a monthly average of 78.9. The high was 94, the low was 64. 11 days reached 90 or higher and only 9 mornings dropped below 70.

Just unbelievable weather for the SE ... lucky us. And I HATE that we're seemingly not going to have a leaf season this year. Usually by this time the early trees, like dogwoods, red maples, crape myrtles, and a few others already have some decent spotty colors, especially on the tips, but almost nothing so far. A good many leaves have fallen but no color. I'm sure there will be some leaves that will change overnight in November but this is so stinkin depressing. Models in 10-15 day range still show no real fall weather. This is just unreal.

Not usually, but I'll bet it's right on the money this time. I know it is basically a printout of the GFS, but man that thing is a hot garbage can for us and it seems to be correct with the never coming cool down

I'm gonna need some support. TWC latest says I don't get below 65 for the next 15 days and all next week I'm mid 80s. This is turning into a fall nightmare. I mean, seriously dude, enough is enough.

Very interesting data, thanks for posting. I'm actually shocked GMU made it all the way to 10/13 without a sub 60 in 2005. You are correct that GSP had a 59 back in August, and many outlying areas went lower and had more than one night. I had 2 or 3 mornings below 60 with the lowest 54 here in Easley, the only brush of fall so far! But this is just craziness. Has AVL ever had a Sept that never got below 60? I would be beyond shocked.

Well so much for this. The front has been delayed now until the 8th on the 6z. And this is the problem, the carrot has been out front since mid Sept and we're no closer now than we were then. If the TWC two week outlook verifies there will be no lows below 60 for GSP through 10/10, the duration of the forecast. I'd put money there's never been a year where GSP didn't drop below 60 during the period from Sept 1-Oct 10. The averages for Oct 15 at GSP is 72/50. While we officially had a couple mornings in late August in the 50s, we could well go almost the first half of met fall without ever dropping below 60, let that sink in. Even AVL hasn't dropped below 61 this month!

Long range GFS continues to push much cooler air down and finally through the area Oct 5th. Many areas would be low 60s / mid 50s for highs with 40s for lows and even some 30s high elevation verbatim. Long way off, 240 +, and GFS has been showing a pattern changing cool down since early Sept, literally, so don't get too excited, but it as been there for quite a few runs, minus one last night. Man we are due!

That IS weird, slams into MYB at hour 132 then tracks over FLO to CLT to AVL to TYS. Almost a hint of Diana you guys were just talking about with the loop/double cross!

It is a hard call and really is a no win situation. It is looking more and more like SC will be spared the worse, but based on the forecasts and possibility of a SC landfall you kinda have to male the call, and make it far enough ahead of time for people to plan and act. If it indeed keeps trending NE and farther away, there will be LOTS of frustrated people complaining about "having to evacuate for no reason", and "the forecasters are never right", etc, but of course the same people would be yelling the loudest if it actually hit and there had been no prep. Those people think weather is actually predictable and that forecasters should truly KNOW what it's going to do. He probably could have waited another 24 hours, but is obviously trying to err on the side of caution.

I would think so too, the NE trend with canes is like the NW trend with winter systems, not quite a guarantee but pretty close. With 3 days still to go and a strengthening system I still would think a scrape to OTS is still in the cards, or even a delmarva hit.

Are you guys thinking the ridge is stronger than modeled? It seems 98% of these go farther North and East in the days leading up to a potential landfall. A few exceptions, but few and far between. Already the forecast track cone has shifted significantly since yesterday morning, from as far south as Jacksonville Fl to about Hilton Head now, with the center over Wilmington. I'm thinking this will probably be another Outer Banks scraper or even near miss OTS (hopefully).

I truly am happy for the NC folks but this has been one of the most painful winters for snow ever in SC! On the edge of two big events squeezed out a couple inches each for the upstate but the only real snow in SC this year hit the coast. Everything else has been just above the state line and NC just keeps getting it, with even NEGA having done way better. Even though I expect the short end here in the upstate, this has been a hard one to take. Everything has overperformed... for everyone else. Watching NC this winter makes me feel like I'm back in high school, watching all the other guys get all the dates...

GSP to CLT to CAE triangle really got the shaft this year. Just about everybody else got their average or way above (CHS, coastal areas, even gulf coast). CAE is really in a drought and I feel for those guys. By the time they get their next shot it will be going on 5 years since their last measurable snowfall. The upstate has really gotten the short end though last few years as well.

Just becoming too hard to get snow in the upstate, let alone in March. Is there even a single model run showing any blue at all into the upstate? On every map I've seen the SC border snow wall is in full force. Heck, it's already happened this week, snow showers all the way to the border on Wed, then nothing.

Total vent here but this weather has put me in a rather foul mood. Cleaning out the garage today and having to put up with sweatiness, bugs, pollen, humidity, and seeing everything thing come out and grow and thinking about all the yard work is just grotesque. If it was May or even April I could accept it but this is beyond ridiculous. Then seeing all my neighbors cutting grass, doing yard work, and walking their dogs in shorts whilst talking about how much they like is just insult to injury. THIS IS MISERABLE! I can't believe this has happened two Februarys in a row. Man, people west of the Mississippi are so freaking lucky.

GSP calling for mid 70s Thursday and Friday with a low of 60 sandwiched in between! That's a page from last February. Then we get back almost to normal for another rainy weekend before going back to upper 60s again. Winter in this area is soooo stinkin pathetic!

Yep. And there are countless examples. Christmas 2010, we have warm surface temps, snows all day but I got like an inch and a half. Ramps up big east of here, Gaffney got like 10 inches. I grew up in Dacusville and they seem to do better for whatever reason, but still..Definitely a strange little hole over here, wish it would go away. I lived in Taylors for a few years and def did better over there, and we aren't talking about great winters either.

As frustrating as the upstate is, CAE really does have a tough time. I calculated that back in the Dec storm, and it has indeed been almost 4 years w/o measurable snow, that's INCREDIBLE. Every now and then, cola gets a really nice one, but gets blanked a heck of a lot. Not sure why it's so difficult there.

What is your exact location? I don't think people around here understand just how difficult it is for the western upstate to get over about 5 inches. They see and hear about the upstate getting snow, which we often do in a GA/NC/SC winter system (but it's usually small time), or they hear about Landrum or Gaffney and think well the "upstate " got a lot, but that's eastern. IMBY, I can think of only 2, 5+ inch snows since the 96 Blizzard; 8 inches from 1/2011, and 5.5 from 1/2016 storm. Just think how many on the board have seen 5+ just this winter. Think how many storms since 96 blizzard have delivered 5+ EAST of GSP in the upstate; MOST systems have yielded that total somewhere in Eastern upstate, but never approached in western. And don't even try to count the number of times areas a few miles north above 2000 ft have seen 5+; dozens? Scores? There is always a monkey wrench; downslopping, warm bubble, dry slot, not in prime lee regeneration area, last to feel frontal cold, gets precip from west just as it dies in situations where a coastal low forms, but too far west to benefit from that coastal low, ULLs push away from mtns, etc, etc. Eastern upstate is just a little bit better in all those situations. This storm was a perfect illustration of many of those. Amazing to see all the 4-6in totals from Sptbg eastward and look at all the sub one inch totals from clemson westward. But sadly, that is the norm. The only way we can really get a big one is in a true cold over running event (1/88, 1/2011), and those are just extremely rare. Despite the beauty of Pickens and Oconne counties, it's almost enough to make snow lovers want to move.

They're never excited either