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Iceagewhereartthou

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Everything posted by Iceagewhereartthou

  1. Iceagewhereartthou
    Maybe start a group therapy thread for Upstate and RDU peeps, get out all our pain about how bad our areas are for winter weather. Someone from Columbia can moderate. "Hi I'm Iceage, I'm addicted to snow and live in the upstate!"
  2. Iceagewhereartthou
    Here's the low end. Wow, went all in for CLT! 3 for AVL? Huh?
  3. Iceagewhereartthou
    Are we sure that's not their "high end" map? They used to put out 3 different ones; one for low end totals, one for high end, and one for the middle road (and most likely).
  4. Iceagewhereartthou
    The amount of whinning from the RDU crowd on the board is CRAZY. I know we all think our own backyard gets left out but they take it to another level. RDU averages more snow than the upstate, despite being a lower elevation and further from the mtns. Wasn't it just last year many of them got a big snow?
  5. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yep. I'm afraid the upstate is in for a bunch of cold rain and with a period of mix. CAD s take too long to get here and WAA is too strong. IF THE COLD AIR ISN'T ALREADY IN PLACE UPSTATE GETS SCREWED (unless you're north and east of TR). I really think most of us (upstate) are going to be disappointed by the lack of cold, NAM already backing off too.
  6. Iceagewhereartthou
    Don't worry, our ten inches will compact to two with all the IP/ZR. Going to be tough watching Hendersonville get two feet while we get two inches. Not fair dang it! Yet another with the Pickens Oconee screw job
  7. Iceagewhereartthou
    While the numbers are different, you can clearly see the western upstate warm bubble phenomenon, going from 20 in Sptbg to 3 in Oconee; an area that is slightly higher elevation and closer to the mtns. Euro has been showing this as well.
  8. Iceagewhereartthou
    Western upstate warm bubble. It's always there, but mote noticeable this time with the amount of QPF. HATE IT!!
  9. Iceagewhereartthou
    Can you do GSP?
  10. Iceagewhereartthou
    This remains my concern, a la Feb 2014. VERY similar feel to this storm for the upstate; long duration, high QPF, marginal temps, colder trend on approach, buy in from all models. But come storm time, mostly sleet and zr. WAA was stronger and faster than anticipated. In fact we've mentioned that many times in our post storm "what did we learn" threads, to watch out for WAA, despite the idea that wedges can be strong and stubborn. That's how I see the upstate here, probably all sleet and zr, except favored areas closer to the border. Hoping for a colder surprise though. Actually what I would wish for is the I-20 corridor to be play. Altruistically because Eastern ATL to CAE is due, and selfishly so it would move me in the colder part and I could be mostly snow with plenty of wiggle room!
  11. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's what HAS to happen for us periphery peeps (upstate, Clt, Rdu, Nega) to get much wintry stuff. If that is accurate and the push continues, look out. And we all know GFS is terrible with this at this range.
  12. Iceagewhereartthou
    To me it looks like they're trying to phase. I think we want them to stay separated. I think the energy wants to consolidate thus, yes, pulling our wave a bit north. I dunno, maybe not..Grit?
  13. Iceagewhereartthou
    Guys I may be off but I think the GFS always has trouble with our systems about 4 or 5 days out. I think it has a particular weakness projecting how the S/w is going to act once it gets onshore. Thinking back through other storms it seems to be all over the place about this same time, then seems to be pretty close by about 48-72 hours out. Remember, it also like to suppress, overcorrect north, then suppress a bit more late in the game. Not too worried about the GFS yet BUT, much of the suite tonight looks to be going with a slightly weaker high anchor, a farther north LP, and resultant trimming of peripheral totals. That's actually climo. Best expectation now is mtns getting nice storm, maybe very big, then NW Piedmont- central NC- eastern/central upstate, etc, in that order for the next best chances.
  14. Iceagewhereartthou
    Feb 2014. Local Mets calling for 8-12, with one or two going 8-14. Euro showing 14-18 at go time. Warm nose. Sleetfest. ZR. 3 inches max!
  15. Iceagewhereartthou
    24 inch line coming down to HWY 11 in SC there. Burrell, Oconeeman, and me with 20, Lookout getting buried, Mack getting the shaft with 16... man, I LOVE this model!
  16. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's the most realistic map I've seen yet. I-40 north with best chance, Wake gets some fun, upstate gets blanked. Does Vegas take weather bets?
  17. Iceagewhereartthou
    Buy both, keep your receipts, take the unused one back
  18. Iceagewhereartthou
    That bubble is absolutely intolerable and always shows up. It's basically a product of that area being surrounded; NE, N, NW, and W of higher mtns, PLUS, being so far west of the CAD highs, it literally takes forever to cool off. It usually results in a ton more mixing or even just rain. It's maddening to be in that and get next to nothing while everyone around can get a lot. Did you notice the snow home over Lake Jocassee on the clown map? 2-4 while just a few miles east in the 20+! Hopefully the cold press will be stronger and close that gap up!
  19. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yeah, those counties and western upstate and NEGA seem to always have heartbreak with these CAD setups. By the time the cold gets this far SW the precip has passed and everybody to our north and east gets the big snows. It's really hard to take in the Ellicott rock area.
  20. Iceagewhereartthou
    Cool graphic, thanks for posting. It's retreating pretty fast until that last frame, then appears to retrograde a bit. I would be interested to see the frames for Sat and Sun when they come out. The wetbulbs on this map are colder than the dps on the other map for Sat. That can only happen if the dps really plummet on Sat, or the wetbulbs really shoot up. Wetbulbs can't be colder than dps.
  21. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yes. What the upstate and NEGA needs is for those upper teens in WNC to bleed our way. With dps in the mid to upper 20s our wetbulbs would likely be above freezing, so we'd get just cold rain or a melting slop that never accumulates.
  22. Iceagewhereartthou
    This matches up almost exactly like the snowfall output maps we're seeing from the GFS and Euro right now. This map doesn't bring the lower DP s into the upstate or SC, and the snowfall maps (op clown maps, not ensemble means) are almost an exact match, with any real accums stopping at the boarder. Remember, in the SE (especially outside elevation) cold is ALWAYS the first consideration. Needs these dews in the teens to come further south and west for any real chance for most.
  23. Iceagewhereartthou
    Thanks. Way down for the upstate unfortunately, moved north.
  24. Iceagewhereartthou
    Map?
  25. Iceagewhereartthou
    You could come to my house, I only get a trace of ice and an inch and a half of snow
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