Iceagewhereartthou

Yeah some nice wx late this week, but it looks like it goes right back to the furnace. I'm going to have to move, this May to Oct summer is getting to be too much for me.

Yeah, something about the dominant large scale pattern has led to this for an extended period of time, going on years. Others on here can better speak to it, but it's obvious and there's no sign of change. I keep holding out hope it would change or flip to a western ridge pattern for awhile but this may indeed be the new normal.

Well the GFS lost the idea yesterday but thankfully shows a cool down still coming after the 25th, with a reenforcement at the end of the month. Still way out there, but the 25 is 11 days out. If we can get it inside a week I'll feel a lot better about maybe getting that cooldown we all need.

GFS continues to show nice cool down for much of the area by 25th through the end of the run, we're talking 70s/50s for s good chunk of the board, with 60s/40s higher elevation. Would feel fantastic but let's see if it holds. Been showing for several days now. BTW check out the heat urban islands on that model, you can pick out every city with noticeably warmer night temps, especially ATL.

For Sept 12, GSP average temp is 83/63. Its been 90s every day this month except one. Boy 83 would sire feel nice.

Yeah this stinks out loud. That SER has basically been a fixture going on a couple of years now. The last period of any respectable below normal temps in the East was Jan 2018, and that was really just the first two weeks of Jan. That's the longest stretch of below normal we've had in many years. Other than that we get a front to cool us down to normal or a little below for a couple days and its right back up. Meanwhile, the upper midwest and northern Rockies have been consistently below normal for a couple years. I know the planet doesn't care, but it would be nice if us in the east could get a reprieve for at least a few months.

GFS continues to show pattern change around the 18th with trough finally coming to the east. Brings 30s all the way down to Pennsylvania and W Virginia by the 20th and 50s all the way to gulf coast by 21st. SE ridge quickly back in place by 23rd though.

Too bad there's no truth to the myth!

But we just had a tropical system. But instead of pulling down cooler air it it's getting hotter. I'm not personally in a drought and have enjoyed the drier weather, BUT, I need a cool down!!!

ATL forecast of 98 Monday! Looks like most models showing small cool down, but still above average for next weekend. GFS shows bigger front FINALLY pushing through on the 21st, and bringing a better feel. PLEASE, FOR ALL THAT IS DECENT!

Ouch. Upper mid west has definitely been the place to be over the past couple of years in particular.

Yeah, this is old already. A week ago GSP had no 90s in it's forecast, now it is all 90s through end of next week! This September picking up where last Sept left off. Last year we had to wait till Oct 12 to see any cooldown, I REALLY hope that doesn't happen again, but no signs of it right now. SO FRUSTRATING!!!

That's what I've been thinking for a couple weeks then they keep popping back up.

So much for my last post. The no 90s showing up at that time has become 90s for each of the next ten days, with mid 90s on a couple days at GSP. I am so over this heat, another summer without end!

The early outlooks for September look to be way nicer than last year. Looks like nothing above mid 80s (except upper 80s Friday) over the next 10-14 days for my area. After that, it gets much harder to find temps in the 90s. Is can happen of course, but the likelihood drops of very fast. Now we need those lows in the 50s (and may actually see some 50s the next couple nights).

Saw that too. Always liked John, professional but fun at the same time. Did a good overall job of forecasting in a challenging area. You could always tell he was a true weather nerd who loved his job. Well done John!

Always liked that song. Maybe we should change the lyrics just a bit: Follow September Escaping summer Hell Looking for the wind Of chaaannnge... As August summer nights Slowly pass us by Yearning for the wind Of chaaannnge

Well this weekend the upstate should see highs in the low 80s or even high 70s with clouds and some rain, but even after that the highs are all 80s; so no 90s. That's right on cue for our first fall "cool down" coming in late August. This past 10 days or so have gotten old quick!

Is that Bastardi' s site? Let me guess, cold and snowy east! No really, what does he think?

Ouch. Here's Accuweather's Fall outlook map Here's the NOAA outlook for Sept/Oct/Nov Here's Nov/Dec/Jan And Here's Jan/Feb/March

Well I know you've thought about it. I'm over the whole heat/summer thing and most of us can't wait for cooler weather. It's that time of year to look for signs and global patterns. Robert (wxsouth) has made some comments on his facebook site about the possibility of a weak Nina, or a "La Nada" ENSO pattern and that it may actually favor cooler temps for us generally, as recent Ninos have not acted like historic Ninos, and we've experienced more (and deeper plunging) cold fronts during recent Ninas. He admits he does not have a good guess this year and pretty much anything is on the table, and acknowledges he completely missed last year's forecast. I also checked out youtube prognosticators and you see the same predictions of bone chilling cold and snow you see every year for the East, but we know how that goes. Right now it seems the usual pattern of pushing back the cooldown (from low 90s to upper 80s) has already started. There has been a lot of record warmth in Europe, Alaska, and the Arctic region this summer, and arctic sea ice melt appears to be tettering back and forth on the 2012 line. There are not a lot of good signs for a good brisk fall nor a decent winter. I my opinion, it is very hard to bet against the trends. Outside of the upper mid west and central part of the US, there's been very little below average for a long time. We know it will cool down and eventually we'll see fall and then winter like conditions, but will it continue to be above to well-above normal? I think predicting or even hoping for something different would be setting ourselves up for disappointment. I predict Fall and Winter will be noticeably warmer than normal (which of course is the new normal). Unfortunately, we'll see at least one winter month be drastically above normal (like the past couple Februaries for example), snow will be almost impossible to come by south of I-40 and below 2000 feet, and we'll be left scratching our heads on how a very different set of factors could lead to such a similar result as last winter. Oh, and no three-peat of the early December snow (sorry NC peeps). What say you?

Well many of us saw lows in the 50s in late July this year. Hope that doesn't mean no more 50s till November this year...

Well despite all the talk last weekend about upcoming troughiness, the next 8 days look to be brutal. Here's to hoping that's the last of the really big heat. Average will feel good after this ( upper 80s over low to mid 90s).

My forecast calling for all lower 90s over the next 7 days, would be the first of the month for me. Going above average- the wrong direction.

Per NOAA the daily averages are as follows: (Threw in GSP as a middle ground - actually surprised GSP isn't closer to Gboro norms.) July 31st August 31st September 30th October 31st Greensboro 88/70 86/66 75/55 66/44 GSP 90/70 87/67 78/56 69/46 CAE 92/72 89/69 81/59 72/47 New Bern 89/72 86/69 79/60 71/48 CHS 91/73 88/71 81/63 74/52 Actually I realized you meant sandhills of NC so I added New Bern. Still, not as much variablity as I thought it would be . Edit #2 - ok added CHS too.