Moonhowl

NHC discussion of the intensity: Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone.

Good luck, sending big miss vibes your way. At least we can be confident it isn't going to be hanging around very long.

No doubt it is stressing me out; I have family in Wilmington, NC and Raleigh, NC although not as worried about Raleigh.

Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side...

Well, to keep it real, the last place in the world to come for an objective view of the true probability of landfall is a weather message board; I suppose it serves the purpose of compiling in one place all the worst case scenarios which certainly aren't beyond the realm of possibility.

From the 5 PM NHC discussion: The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time.

Wow, grim to say the least; hopefully, this means eyewall replacement very soon.

It would be nice if it stayed to the right side of the cone and that re-curve showing up on the GFS sends it back out to sea before landfall; as you said what an enormous difference +- 75 miles could make...

Looking forward to the weather than next few days, sunshine with a hint of fall. The radar this morning has the NWFS look at the TN border counties

So much for breaking up the silence, the only thing I project is more activity when snow is showing up on the short range models. Until then, enjoy the rest of the Summer, Fall...maybe anther late Fall snow this year, we will see.

I may be in the minority here but I love summer; now if I lived in the Piedmont probably not so much.

Turned out my basement was flooding about the time I was posting the frowny face about your house flooding. Ended up with about 5.3" IMBY. Still made it out to take a few pictures of the $850,000 soccer field project:

Now 4 inches of water dumped IMBY and still pouring. More inches of rain than I had snow for the December 18 storm. City of Asheville was in the middle of spending big bucks on soccer fields that I am sure are or will be under water yet again: https://wlos.com/news/local/asheville-city-to-pay-875k-to-help-repair-soccer-complex-at-azalea-park I plan to get out a take some photos once this lets up.

~2.6 inches and rising IMBY and does not look to be ending anytime soon.

Last year the AO and NAO went negative and IIRC a +PNA at the beginning of March and stayed that way through April. All I remember was wall to wall below normal temperatures in April of last year. I started to look at the data and the following were the temps the first 3 days of April 2018 at KAVL: 4/1 – 75 F 4/2 – 78 F 4/3 – 76 F Goes to show I shouldn’t trust my memory. Not a fan of cold in April but since snow is so rare lately I wouldn’t mind seeing some in April as long as there is no deep freeze.

As of yesterday; Asheville is 2.5" of rain ahead of last year which was the wettest on record. I've heard old timers speak of dry spells with stuff called dust that comes from mud.

Well, warm weather does bring crickets

Congrats! Nice to have another member of the Pack in WNC.

Just saw that as well; what a bummer. His parting statement can be found on the WRAL website here: https://www.wral.com/greg-fishel-announcement/18190287/

Don't worry all the teleconnections will set up perfectly this year just the "in winter" part of it will be fail.

I am certainly enjoying it. Last year in this neck of the woods the warm week in February was pretty much it for any extended warm weather until May. Come mid-April when the wind is gusting to 40 mph and the snow flurries flying I will be wishing for February weather.

I have heard theoretical physicists claim if they can reconcile the theory of relatively and quantum theory they will have the answer to everything. Well, if that is accomplished I want to see them use that information for a dead on accurate winter forecast for the southeast. Kind of looking cold and potential for frozen precip in NC the 2nd week in Feb to me per the GFS run I just looked at. But I guess I didn't see what I saw.

Don't worry, the mountain folks will get their snow in April

Wolf Ridge is already shut down; however, didn't think it would be for the season...

Warm in this neck of the woods seems like the front door to the gulf has been left open and endless rain. Warm and wet or cold and dry appear to be the two options.