SmokeEater

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10% hatched tor in the new outlook for NE MS, S TN and N AL. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Tornado Watch out. High end too, probs 70/40. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

And a 5% tor with a watch specifically put out for that supercell was fine. This wasnt an outbreak with numerous cells. Just one sup that went nuts at the wrong place and wrong time. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Ridiculous debris sig right now.... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

It's going right down I-40 also, I hate to see what's happening on that highway right now. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Channel 5 had it live on tower cam, was large, went through their parking lot. Power out to most of downtown. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

TOG just SW of Carthage, MS. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Strong couplet now near Tishomingo, MS, had a BWER last scan. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Never is anywhere but here. Most places other then this forum could care less unless it's snow or a tornado hits their house. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Tornado watch issued for NE MS and all of C and N AL, until 11pm, tor probs 60/40. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Structural damage around Martinsville, SW of the first report I sent. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Big debris ball now. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Trees and powerlines down along Hwy 540 with that Raleigh cell. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Watch out Houston in the next couple hours, watch coming down there also. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Everything starting to spin in AR now, let's see where we go from here. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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No one should even be mentioning the word bust with this event at all, at least not any time soon, lol. There has been one warning so far in the whole moderate risk area. A very long way to go. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Usually not good when the MIC of FWD posts this.... Tom Bradshaw @SoonerTom 25s On 95% of the days in N TX, you can ignore the weather and it doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. Tomorrow falls in that “other special 5%” category. The threat will be real, so PAY ATTENTION. Plan ahead, have a way to get warnings, and know what to do if one’s issued for you. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

From the FWD afternoon AFD: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CLOSE OFF FRIDAY AND ENTER THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF IT AND RESULT IN THE LIFTING OF A WEAK CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE CAP GONE, DETERMINING WHETHER WE WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REMAINS A HUGE FORECAST CHALLENGE SINCE THERE WILL BE NO LEVEL FOCUS TO HELP "TRIGGER" STORMS. SHOULD VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME WE WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT SUPERCELLS AND THE TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN THE HIGH VALUES OF WIND SHEAR IN PLACE AND WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONICALLY CURVING HODOGRAPHS. THE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM IN THESE WEAKLY-FORCED WARM ADVECTION REGIMES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE THE ONES RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR NOTEWORTHY COOL SEASON TORNADO EVENTS (AND SOME WARM SEASON EVENTS TOO). THE SETUP FOR THIS EVENT CERTAINLY CHECKS ALL THE BOXES FOR WHAT WE LOOK FOR IN A COOL SEASON TORNADO OUTBREAK, WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF INSTABILITY BEING JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE BIG EVENTS LIKE DEC 29TH '06 AND DEC 26TH '15 (IF YOU BELIEVE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS). AND SO WHAT KEEPS US FROM SAYING A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS ON THE HORIZON IS THAT THERE ARE COUNTLESS UNNAMED AND FORGOTTEN EVENTS THAT LOOK SIMILAR TO THIS ONE WHICH PRODUCED NO TORNADOES. SO I BELIEVE THE KEY TOMORROW WILL BE THE INSTABILITY - REFLECTED BY THE DEWPOINT READINGS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES CAN CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S, THEN IT WILL LIKELY BE A BAD DAY FOR US. UNTIL THEN THE BEST WE CAN SAY IS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY START TO DEVELOP. THESE EARLY SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT PROBABLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION IS MORE FAVORED DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGHER MOISTURE. THEY WILL BE VERY FAST MOVING, ROCKETING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH, AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER, VISUAL SPOTTING AND TRACKING WILL BE DIFFICULT. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

If it doesn't involve snow in general, or a tornado in their backyard, they could care less. Has always been that way. That's why events even there usually end up here. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Strong TDS NE of Greensboro, this thing just won't die. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Large TOG near Columbia, MS, west of Hattiesburg. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Alexandria, LA is in very big trouble.... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk