Harry Perry

Remember how the long range looked promising? It doesn’t anymore. Two or three backdoor cold fronts from the Northeast with freezing temps through the middle of the month. Sweet.

Man.. thanks for that. Kinda hurts. Fun Fact: The sun angle is currently the same as early August.

The persistence with the eastern trough though. Kinda sad here. All the trees and shrubs went from bright green fluff to brown/yellow/red. Almost looks like fall around here. Everything would’ve been full bloom by now if the temps would’ve stayed somewhat decent (50°s/60°s) but the 20°s and 30°s really put a halt to their growth.

At the beginning of last weeks “summer”, I told myself “we’ll be paying for this in a week”, well, here we are. Also last nights run of the GFS - no thanks, though it would be cool to see a foot a snow overnight in late April.

OnlyFans?

The HRRR was right last night, for the most part anyway. Looked like a hot mess for this morning and the hot mess transpired. I expected storms later on today so I took it upon myself to take advantage of the warm temps to epoxy paint my enclosed trailer floor thinking, “oh I have a few hours before the rain”… I’ll tell you all one thing, don’t. At least don’t believe the radar when it looks like you’ll have an hour before the rain begins; because surprise! Sideways rain and 40mph wind 5 minutes later from a rogue cell the developed in one scan. What. A. Mess. Epoxy everywhere, chips all over the yard. Standing water 3” deep in my backyard (where the trailer is currently parked). Today, in all… a huge shit sandwich.

You certainly stand a good chance for a good one this afternoon.

Yeah unfortunately this will be yet again another sando for Michigan. Best chances will be south and east.

Got 10 seconds of sun this morning so I’m expecting an EF-4 by noon, but in all seriousness waking up to 70° feels like mid-summer here this morning. Lots of crap-vection going on just to my west, have a feeling that’s going to set the stage for outflow boundaries later on however I think the best shot at severe or tornadoes specifically with discrete-sup’s will end up being Coldwater/Jackson/Lansing and east. I believe St. Joeseph/Calhoun county will be a little too close to the worked over atmosphere from this morning for anything major.

Yeah the baroclinic zone usually sets up along I-80 more often than not, something to do with the cold lakes? I’d be interested to find reasoning on why. Shit Sandwich = Sando

Ahh makes sense. Wonder how far north the warm front will lift, underperforming to our west I read. Been busy and haven’t checked other guidance yet but good to know that HRRR is a sando tonight.

00z HRRR shows a line of scattered crap-vection moving through around 9-10am just prior to fropa. Looks like the front has sped back up and clears the area by 2pm. Doesn’t look like much of a threat on that particular model around here.

It’s all fun and games until we get into spring/summer and the baroclinic zone stays south of I-80 time and time again.

This year does have a 2011 feeling to it

Really coming down here. Looking like we might be in the pivot zone, heavier totals may actually pan out. Already approaching an inch here.

No I’ve been busy, just about to take a gander and the latest. 13”.. impressive. The 12z trends this morning had me thinking maybe this would end up further east. I do see there’s some 50-60mph gusts southwest of us.. makes me wonder if they would pull the trigger on blizzard warnings. This snow type isn’t usually very conducive of blowing and drifting, but with 45mph winds it would make up for the heavy water content in the snow, so it’s possible. They’ll probably keep things as-is being it’s a relatively short duration event.

Flurries just starting here.

Man… I’m starting to think we’re going to bust over this way. Every run, even the 06z Euro is bleeding east.

Man can you imagine if the RDPS verified?

That would be nice.. also entirely possible with evaporative cooling/increasing wind. Will be fun to watch.

Harry I believe your snow magnet worked because it would appear the models have honed in on the jackpot zone being between my place and your place.

Only took 96 hours

So. True. They have the “Since we here at the NWS GRR Office will not be receiving the brunt of the storm, we will go with an inch or less for the county entire area” attitude. For this event they seem pretty optimistic about heaviest totals in a triangle from Lansing to Kzoo, to Jackson.

Love to see it

Yeah, this thing is going to blow its wad too quick and end up drying out fast as it shoots east. What’s interesting is the pockets of heavier snow/QPF as shown on the 12z GFS. That tells me there’s gonna be a lot of convection in the warm sector that’ll probably rob moisture from the cold-side, hence the lower totals in areas where you wouldn’t expect it over central Missouri, north-central Illinois and especially in Michigan.