Harry Perry

Still a good cap here… lake breeze just pushed east of here.

you should see what I do for work

I fully expect to head to FireKeepers Casino in my typical Friday night fashion, drink 2-3 Crown Peach doubles, lose a few $$$ then on my way home hopefully be watching anvil-crawlers/constant lighting moving in from the west all to be finished off while sitting in the hot tub while it starts to storm. Also looks like the cold front won’t be moving through now until tomorrow morning, so kinda thinking we may be in for a pretty quiet afternoon and evening. 100% cloudy here at the moment with just the slightest trace of sun poking through - definitely not going to make it into the 90’s today, but with the later timing of the front the severe threat is kinda meh around here anyway. Just hoping for some good rollers and lots of lightning. Edit* Peaked at the 14z HRRR and chuckled.. shows a nasty local bow pushing through at around 80mph with large hail at 3am - sweet Looks pretty wicked in northern Illinois around 9PM though…

Heavy rain here, a little organization with the back side precip, would expect it to decay by late morning and hopefully get some filtered sun by noon.

I don’t know, not throwing the towel in yet, but I fully expect temps to be overdone at minimum today.. thus keeping instability tamed. This crapvection is naturally going to inhibit some of what could’ve been this afternoons potential. Also… that’s a ton of debris clouds - a good 6-8 hours worth moving ever so slowly east.

ILX always seems to have higher SBCAPE, lot of corn nearby? Some of the highest readings I’ve ever witnessed came from ILX where the dew points always seem to be higher than surrounding areas.

Wow is right.. hell of a sounding. Never know, tomorrows storm mode could start off with some SUPs, likely nothing like the Andover event but the ingredients are definitely there. Would expect a bump to ENH for most of us overnight and tornado probs increased a bit. I was looking at my local sounding and have a ton of hail matches. Hard pass on all of that nonsense.

It’s our time to shine.

Wow, just checked 00z and yeah, would be a higher end event for most of the sub. Southeast Wisconsin just absolutely mutilated. Check out some of the UD Helicity Swaths maxing out the scale over Grafton and West Bend. Impressive. HRRR probably a pretty realistic outcome with the instability in place and the 50kt LLJ punching from the west around dark. Going to be a busy night.

Yeah, I kinda had a feeling this is how today would unfold. I’d throw the towel in anywhere west of 127 and north of 96. Believe anything that develops to the west will be sub-severe and mainly follow the instability gradient to the south.

Had a 20mph gust-front here with some torrential rain. Minor flooding on side streets. Temps down to 66°. No lightning. The atmosphere has over-turneth.

I agree. GRR is optimistic on this first round not overturning the atmosphere and better instability (even mentioning sunshine) later this afternoon setting the stage for severe. I just don’t see that happening, and the 15z HRRR agrees. I could see more of an isolated threat but with that, most of the storms this afternoon would be independent sups capable of some tornados with the directional shear in place. Highly conditional, but would expect areas closer to Detroit, Toledo, Findley and areas into Canada - such as Chatham to really be under the gun later on today.

Thinking that the best shot for severe will be closer to Metro Detroit later on today. Lots of clouds and the decaying mcs is out running the better support over this way.

Every hour of the HRRR has been a significantly different outcome. Very fluid situation as CAMs are struggling with actual placement of storm development with every advancing hour. I don’t think we’ll have much of an idea of what truly transpires until at least 06-12z tomorrow when upstream convection develops. At that point it’ll be easier to differentiate CAMs and other short range guidance into a solution more likely to transpire; hence the blob vs. a more detailed outline for tomorrows SVR WX outlook. One thing for certain is the ingredients in place for tomorrow are better than average for this summer at least. Plenty of heat, higher surface dew points, potent shortwave approaching, deep layer around ~50kts, high lapse rates, etc… all depends on what develops overnight into tomorrow morning. Obviously a better chance if more instability is realized and less morning cloud cover materializes. Finally, something to watch.

Missed out on rain/storms yesterday and unfortunately it doesn’t look like a chance in the foreseeable future. But I’ll be damned if I don’t see a couple more backdoor cold fronts slipping through within the next 7-10 days. Unreal.

Yeah doesn’t look very summer like. Hoping we get some measurable rain at least.

Oh would ya just look at it? No, not the smoke… Nope, not the corn…. But another lovely backdoor cold front plowing down from where? You guessed it… the Northeast on Wednesday. The blocking lives on!

You know what I hate? Backdoor cold fronts. First today of many to come in the next week.

Our time will come. We got some good snows that they didn’t get so mother nature is sticking it to us at the moment.

I guess personally I would rather have debris clouds than a stacked upper level low sitting for a week.

Well don’t get too excited, this too shall pass. MJO is looking more likely that we to go back to cooler than normal with an eastern trough/western ridge around or after the 15th of the month and you guessed it, the blocking persists the rest of the month. Hopefully we’re done with the freezing temps but I bet we get close.

Well it went from 40°s to 70°s.. the switch has been flipped.

Call me crazy but I bet we’ll be wishing for a day like this in about 20 or 30 days

Thanks for that Stebo. I’ve noticed the MJO looks favorable for a transition to possibly warmer than normal by week 2 of May. Hopefully we get a little more spring instead of 40’s and 50’s right to 80’s. It’s about time, seems the blocking really tending to favor us in recent years.

What? You mean to tell me the OP runs won’t verify 5-10 days out? Ridiculous. Accuweather has the forecast for the next 2 months! I’m just taming my optimism for the warm-up in the event that it gets shunted (thanks blocking).