Harry Perry

I wouldn’t put much stock into the NAM quite yet, especially with that disorganized look. Just doesn’t make sense, almost like it took in bad data.

Yeah, I wouldn’t make a map either. Contradicts their verbiage lol.

Man some of those really suck too for the southern/eastern Michigan side. Chicago is the place to be no doubt.

Ratios will be everything with this system. Pretty impressive when it nearly doubles totals. 18z Euro 10:1 vs. 18z Euro Kuchera Ratio (also note the higher totals for DTX on 10:1 vs Kuchera and the limited but notable lake enhancement from Milwaukee down to the southern ORD burbs.) Detroit concrete special incoming.

18z EPS 10:1 Mean - will likely end up 15:1 or a little better further NW. 18z RGEM 10:1 getting Detroit back into the game.

I forgot what office mentioned it in their AFD, but the majority AFO’s are favoring the NAM as it’s historically better with these types of systems on predicting the WAA. Ultimately, they are expecting the warm air to push further north than what the other global guidance is showing. All while my local office mentions this “low track is favorable for a classic CWA wide warning snowfall” (except for Calhoun & Jackson counties of course, but to hell with them, IWX or DTX can have them) lol.

4-6” is what looks most probable from you to me and everywhere in between. Probably some isolated 8” spots - unless we keep drying out.

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

I knew it! In all seriousness though I hope you’re doing well and healing up. Spinal surgery is no joke.

Everyone’s favorite SREF plumes. One member has 48° so bit of an exaggeration on my end. Actually quite a few in the 40-45° range though. Granted, watching these models at 72 out hell even 3 hours out is normally comical.

This is so NAM like. Keeps our reality in check but at this point is an outlier. I’d expect it to settle back southeast with time. Fun fact, I never listen to them, but some WRF/NMMB members show 50°+ with plain rain for the majority of the event here, so could be worse

First watches hoisted for most of Kansas.

I agree with this. Lots of consensus on ensembles, almost a lock for much of the sub on 3-6” for several runs now.

Emotions are just running high due to the lack of better quality winter weather and it’s hard to read people on here because they’re all about facts and less about being personable. It’s been a shitty winter with no end in sight. Good reason to kick the ball and talk about it IMO.

6.7” on the weenie map but realistically 3” (until 06z when it disappears).

How about that “active storm track” 6z Euro shows 0.7” qpf here through hour 360 and less as you go west. Ensembles showing systems north and south of us and especially targeting the northeast. Old trends die hard.

Well that went to hell fast. Imagine the meltdown had this been a 3-6”er down to less than an inch inside 24 hours. I’m good without the ice though.

Definitely has an ugly look to it, but we do jump to the mid 30’s pretty quickly and a lot of the precip is convective in nature so that should keep accretion down a bit.

Yeah, I’d imagine it’s going to be lots of rainers. Maybe some pingers. The pattern has been like this since November, we wait for the cold and wet at the horizon, and it keeps getting pushed farther back. We finally got the cold, short lived albeit but little precipitation (outside of lake effect). Now on the horizon, I see lots of early spring systems with much of the sub in the warm sector and really a bias for warmth through the end of the month. EPS weeklies looking toasty. Kind of reminds me a bit of last February - maybe we’ll get another middle of the night tornado outbreak with some golfball size hail come the end of the month.

You’re tantalizing me here. I guess I didn’t realize you moved that far north. How are you liking it? Bring some of that down here would ya?

Yeah, this winter has been a dud. Lots of upcoming chances for cold rain with maybe a dusting of backside deformation snow. I truly don’t believe we will have an area-wide snowfall this winter. Still plenty of time for that to change but time is ticking.

Truly a once in a century (or better) storm down there. Think of all the kids that’ll get to sled for the first time and have snowball fights… they’re going to remember this core memory forever and probably be wishing for it again for years to come.

Man, you hit the nail on the head. Was ALL too similar to ‘91 and just was… off. Or should I say… Goff. Was great until it wasn’t. That hit on Goff should’ve resulted in a personal foul and ejection from the game, but that’s not only what cost us. 5 turnovers, 16 players on injured reserve - defense toasted. It finally caught up to them.

Pretty lack luster start around here. Been snowing for a few hours now - about a tenth of an inch so far and back edge moving east pretty quick. Might have a hard time squeezing an inch out over here if trends continue.