Harry Perry

*** Freezing Rain is forecast - but a major ice storm is unlikely for our area *** Pcpn type a little further south along the I-96 corridor will begin to transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet during the mid to late morning hours (around 14Z to 16Z) as increasingly brisk nne winds advect low level colder air in. Significant impacts from freezing rain (and sleet) are forecast with potential for freezing rain accumulations of around a quarter to perhaps a third of an inch near KGRR and a third of an inch to a half an inch east of KGRR. The relatively highest amounts of freezing rain (of up to around a half an inch) are forecast where fzra is most persistent from near KLAN (as suggested by 00Z HREF FRAM ensemble mean for accretion) northward to Alma. Expected impacts include significant power outages and tree damage where fzra is most persistent with amounts closer to a half an inch. Bottom line... it is noted that a consensus of virtually all latest hi res model guidance and global models are overall less bullish with potential fzra accums as compared to what the guidance was showing 24 to 48 hours ago. So a major ice storm is not forecast. Even so... a quarter to half inch of freezing rain accumulation in conjunction with falling temps later today through tonight will have significant impacts. Potential for a longer period of sleet will also limit freezing rain accumulations somewhat. For our southern fcst area near the I-94 corridor pcpn will fall as plain rain for much of the day before finally transtioning to sleet/fzra for a period late this aftn/eve.

00z suite as well as the short range models really put a damper on the party - specifically the freezing rain/ice accums. Not going to lie, I’m not mad about it haha.

Haha thanks for reminding me... I’m thrilled. I’m really banking on 32° and heavy rain.

Looks great. Little full, lotta sap.

If you take into account what all the models are showing - they’ve honed in on our area. I’d say I-96/69 to I-94 will be hardest hit if surface temps do actually make the drop quicker and deeper than prior thinking. I’m seeing some upper 20 figures by mid afternoon in your area and around 29-30° here. Will be interesting if that actually pans out.

Good question, that I’m not sure of.

Can you imagine if we squeezed this event in before the new year? Would’ve blown records out of the water... literally.

Yuck. 32° and heavy rain. Welcome to winter.

Despite what the models are showing on ice... it will be marginal at best. Heavy rates (Likely end up as sleet), marginal temps (31-32°), high wind, time of day... all will make it hard accrete what is modeled. Still worth watching though.

Insert eye-roll here..

Ahh.. this time of the year is the best. Cold nights in the 20’s and days in the 30’s.. until a storm system moves in and we stick on the warm side of it time and time again. One word for the outlook of December, “Dank”.

Only thing keeping this from being a low end warning criteria snow around here is the warm ground. Maybe we can get some good rates to overcome some of this, but we shall see.

Checked medium/long range, instantly thought the same... haha

Give it time.. fwiw long range GFS has us cold and CFS (lol) have us in heavy winter jackets fighting an arctic blast on Halloween haha.

Several short range runs showing explosive development around 00z tonight.. fortunately the MCS has weakened to the point where the atmosphere should remain untapped over this way, but later on I’m trying to find what the models are seeing that’s driving explosive development along the boundary other than the LLJ.

Have a strange suspicion of a stagnant stationary boundary sitting just south of the MI/IN/OH/IL border in coming days/weeks. You know.. the kind that keeps it miserable and in the 50’s with low clouds and rain on the north side, meanwhile 50 miles south it’s sunny and 80? Yeah.. I can feel some of that garbage coming... (and see it becoming more persistent on the models). No ******* thanks. I understand it has to set up somewhere, but it always sets up in the same spot every year. Gets old. Bring on summer.