Harry Perry

This. This is the one.

1-9”... what could go wrong?

Hard call over here. Plumes from 1.5” to 8” with a mean around 4” but absolutely NO clustering at all. Considering the rapid transfer of energy to the east coast, would expect rapid shunting of heaviest precip to push through to the east southeast while weakening on the northern end due to our fun northern friend “BLOCK”. Without the blocking to our north, this would probably trend much further north and it still could a bit, but likely not enough to make more than a notable difference. Going with 2.5” here. RogueWaves, what’re you thinkin?

Baby steps. Last system really shunted the axis of snow well north of guidance.

Yeah that would be our luck. Wonder if the wave ejects further south. Currently riding the trough out west. Sampling/tomorrow’s runs should help with this but I’m willing to be we actually get our first legitimate “storm” (2-4”) out of this.

Baby steps...

Has GHD2 always been 4th on the CIPS list or is it creeping higher and higher?

18z looks to be a solid hit around southern MI and a general spread the wealth for many. Wonder if the models will play catch up like the last storm.. i.e. dry air aloft.

Our biggest forecasted storm of the season dropped the least amount of snow. 3/4” - models, who needs them?

Flurries have begun in Battle Creek. Right on cue.

The bleeding just won’t stop.

I’m ready for the “general 2-4” snowfall”. WWA per GRR, spot on. I believe they are accounting for continued bleeding as well.

I have a feeling that tomorrow will NOT be our day haha. Watch these models come apart and drop accums to 1” or less East of Chicago. Not saying it’ll happen, but we’re definitely on course and would be up to par as of lately.

High bust potential for both of us. Rather be surprised than get my hopes up at this point.

Agreed. What was melting off my truck earlier is now frozen. Such a tricky call on this system. Back down to 31° here.

That makes two of us.

Up to 32° per my weather station. The glaze on my truck and Jeep is melting rapidly. Don’t see much in the way of that happening on the trees as of now but at 32° and daylight and WAA, I suspect it will begin melting on the trees as well. Lots of run-off. Slushy pavement. Wind is picking up. One word. Dank.

Freezing rain here with occasional pingers. A lot of run-off. Not much accrual yet. Temp at 30°.

Stop and say it ain’t true... Sorry, the Jameson and Ginerales have taken over. That being said, for all of our sakes, I hope everyone has a good New Year. edit** and accretion levels stay in check.

Have a strange feeling we (where precip onset is later) will manage to escape anything too severe due to the time of day and sun angle... even only a week and half after the solstice. If we were 27-28° it’d be a different story but a balmy 32° - just isn’t going to cut it, and that’s okay

Same here as well. Mood flakes.

Even though these are WAA rain showers, it’s still cooling the surface and limiting the destabilization, at least up here in the eastern portion of the enhanced risk. Forecast high was expected to be 89° today. We have stopped at 81° and don’t see any clear indication of the temp rising this afternoon/evening with the several hours of stratiform rain approaching from the west. SPC and GRR both uncertain of the extent of the WWA rain this afternoon too. I’d say the event around here to be a little more of an isolated threat for this evening. Better chances west of Lake Michigan.

From GRR this morning -- Widespread freeze possible record lows Saturday-- As we have been writing about for over a week now, the upper level flow brings us air that is currently over the Arctic Circle. The 500 mb heights fall to near 535 m, which suggest (long story) but highs should not get much over 40. All of the ensemble and long range models continue to forecast lows Saturday morning from around 20 north to the mid 20s near and east of US-131. This would be a killing freeze if it happens. Sunday morning may be nearly as cold too. -- Next system Sun/Monday ????-- As I suggested yesterday, the upper low that brings us the cold air rotates around brings another shortwave from the northern stream into our area Sunday or Monday (depending on which model you choose or which version of which model you choose). The 00z run of the ECMWF is now bringing the system farther north, like the GFS did yesterday and continues to do today. That would bring rain and snow into the area Sunday or Monday. Given this is a northern stream system, it would not have Gulf moisture so precipitation amounts would be less than a 1/4 inch. Still, if it were to snow Sunday night we could see 2 to 4 inches on grass areas by Monday morning. Handy.

Second half of May (roughly from the 14th through Memorial Day) has the sub firmly in the heat and juice with several rounds of strong storms. Kinda funny, it shows highs in the 40’s and 50’s for most of us, then on the 15th, we just flip the switch to 80’s lol. Typical. But don’t get too excited, the eastern trough comes back in by the beginning of June similar to the first half of May, but thats to chew the fat on when that next bout of “why the **** do I live here again?” Comes in.

Well I see May is a dumpster fire. Warmer than normal winter followed by a cooler than normal 4th (5th)? Lost count - winter.