RTPGiants
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Everything posted by RTPGiants
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This is going to be a heck of a NAM run. This puts nearly all the models into consensus, right? Is there still an outlier?
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A bit confused out to 36 on NAM. LP is north of previous run, but precip shield just runs into some sort of wall in mid NC. What's up with that? Looks like it might slide south?
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NAM also looks a bit faster in that precip in southern NC by noon tomorrow.
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Deep Thunder is an IBM model I think. I believe it's somehow related to Watson these days. Michael Ventrice posts it from time to time on Twitter. No idea the actual verification scores, but I feel it's been out in left field a few times on hurricanes.
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Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck?
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Then it shoots the LP off into the Atlantic. Going to be lower QPF overall.
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I know this is banter ... but isn't this the time we start hearing about "ground temps won't support accumulation"? Just trying to tick off my winters storm bingo card.
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Gonna be a bit of backside snow Monday through Tuesday with this run.
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Verbatim this is going to be really marginal on temps.
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Looks more like 6z GFS than 12z. Did we like that run?
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Yeah slower now and a bit further south. Possibly a little colder.
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GFS slowed back down to its previous run by 72. Looks nearly identical.
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18z GFS seems to start off south and faster through 54.
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Good IR loop that seems to agree with a north move: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir We're about to have 1000 arguments over "moving" vs. "wobble" though.
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GFS has been this or close to it for a while. NAM is somewhat similar. Seems that we're just tossing them though
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Yeah, so GFS, NAM, CMC are perhaps trending a bit north. Euro isn't buying it. NHC went with what seems like extreme Euro. Tough to be a forecaster, but I'm a little more concerned as someone in the Triangle now.
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Allan Huffman posted his forecast map about an hour ago and has Raleigh in the 3-6" of rain area. He didn't make a wind prediction, but if you were to go by forecasts and models, you'd say maybe gusts in the 40-50 mph range.
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I know it's the NAM, but do we care at all that it seems to keep a bit more of a northerly run? It's shaping up less on 12z, but still north of global models. In theory we're inside its range...
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Well to be fair to NHC, they only had the Euro guidance at 5. No track changes on intermediate advisories. Since then the GFS and future-GFS have sort of caved to Euro, so we'll see what they do at 11, but I'd expect a rather big change.
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Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system. More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.
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Looks to stall in about the spot where a bunch of Euro ensemble members stalled it. Maybe some agreement there finally. Everyone wants to know "when will it cross land", but the forecasts might need to evolve to something like "sits 50 miles offshore for a day".
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At 42 it's way east
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Here in lay the problem for pretty much every NHC forecast. You've basically hit on the head why NHC doesn't make wild prediction swings based on every model run. If you cry wolf too far in advance, then people will not take proper care the next time. If you're too conservative, then people won't have time to prepare. Unfortunately atmospheric prediction is still a challenge even in these days of advanced computer models. If you're a professor and in the end the Triangle area gets nothing, I hope you teach your students that it was better to over prepare than to under prepare. In the end it will have cost them and you money and time, but that's ok. In today's "everything right now" society, it's ok to take a pause out of your life for safety rather than play on the edge of the knife.
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Anyone have precip totals from that Euro run?
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Just curious if anyone took a look at the FV3 out to the end of the run. 3 separate landfalls after 2 separate regeneration events....heh...let's not do that.
